WW CXLIX SPAWN IV - GAME OVER (Post 3845)

[Shiggles]

Ok ok caught up. Is it a good plan to point out juju suspicions? on like behavioral priciples? or would that make me a target due to if im right or not lol. Im gonna need a vote count if anyone has it recorded, i think most are for Dubb, although im not sure how the spawn stuff works, and if we do leave him alive today if he would turn into a spawn tonight and have 4 people getting eaten lol.

and mr barkeep, am is still able to submit an order for today? or did that action point get taken up with training?

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by Danny

Do you guys really think I would have been on the public report if I were converting someone?

Yes, because I believe Spawn can perform their public role and Spawn activity at night. I'm 90% sure that was the case in previous games.

Spawn would be encouraged to perform a public action to explain exhausted status - it would be harder to argue away being exhausted without the public action.

BK - can Spawn perform a public role night action (guard, spy, convert building,etc) in addition to a Spawnling attack, or other Spawn action?

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by Shiggles

Ok ok caught up. Is it a good plan to point out juju suspicions? on like behavioral priciples? or would that make me a target due to if im right or not lol. Im gonna need a vote count if anyone has it recorded, i think most are for Dubb, although im not sure how the spawn stuff works, and if we do leave him alive today if he would turn into a spawn tonight and have 4 people getting eaten lol.

and mr barkeep, am is still able to submit an order for today? or did that action point get taken up with training?

The game always works better the more you talk, I think. I sometimes will hold back on a thought about someone just so I can watch them more, but basically tell us what you saw and that helps us all find the right guy.

[Autumn]

I would like to recommend people move off of Dubb. I can kill him tonight, and then he will be effectively lynched. Let's find another bad guy.

[britrock88]

SUMMARY SINCE POST 1242

~1250-70: discussion about the failing fence and partially converted power facility taking the brig out of commission
1285-on: dubb asks to be examined
~1305: abe determines to train a doctor
1343: hoops reroutes power... to the security fence
1365: cf tells us that without repair, the fence will fail by morning
1375: autumn posts the first (?) of several lists of our daily activities as determined by the officers
~1390-1425: hoops v. danny
1428: abe will train shiggles as a doctor
1439: people don't like julio's pot roast
~1455: discussion of dubb and danny lurking together
~1465-75: talk of dehydration
1475-76: day actions; saldana begins examining dubb
1482: "Both men emerge from the medical facility some time later."
1486: saldana reports that dubb is a spawnling and that he (saldana) could not cure him (dubb)
~1505: considering whether saldana has been cleared
1533: dubb suspects Danny
1538-40: another clump of day actions
1550: Danny hands out phasers to everyone as usual except dubb
1551-on: dubb v. Danny
1565: Autumn reveals as vigilante, proposes using ability to kill dubb and lynch someone else
1565-on: dubb v. saldana


VOTE COUNT

cf - autumn (1337)
danny - dubb (1551)
dubb - saldana (1486), abe (1514)
hoops - cf (1372)
simbo - danny (1450)

Not that many votes out there, really.

[britrock88]

19 of us left, so 1/3rd still rounds up to 7 votes required to execute.

[Simbo Klice]

Originally Posted by Autumn

I would like to recommend people move off of Dubb. I can kill him tonight, and then he will be effectively lynched. Let's find another bad guy.

Here's the thing though- I liked that idea, but I just read it and it says you attack him. If you attack him you might lose, you might just wound him, you might take a wound, etc. I get that it's a good use of your ability, that you get a bonus from your phaser, and all the rest but a lynch today or tomorrow seems more definite.

[britrock88]

"A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush." I think we agree that Dubb is something close to a bird in the hand. But, as the saying goes, that bird is not worth MORE than two in the bush. With Autumn's plan, or simply by waiting until tomorrow to execute Dubb, we could see if there's more spawn afoot.

[Shiggles]

and because im not very savvy at navigating the forums, is there some way to see only blue posts? or track which groups have worked together through missions/conversions?

[Barkeep49]

Vote Count

Votes Needed to lynch: 7

Simbo 1 - Danny (1450)
CF 1 - Autumn (1337)
hoops 1 - CF (1363)
dubb 2 - saldana (1486) Abe (1514)
Danny 1 - dubb (15310

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by Shiggles

and mr barkeep, am is still able to submit an order for today? or did that action point get taken up with training?

Training eats up all your AP

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

BK - can Spawn perform a public role night action (guard, spy, convert building,etc) in addition to a Spawnling attack, or other Spawn action?

Yes

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by Simbo Klice

Here's the thing though- I liked that idea, but I just read it and it says you attack him. If you attack him you might lose, you might just wound him, you might take a wound, etc. I get that it's a good use of your ability, that you get a bonus from your phaser, and all the rest but a lynch today or tomorrow seems more definite.

Looking at attack:
75% chance to succeed, attacking a person, equipped with phaser against someone without one .... seems like a pretty good percentage play (not 100%, but inching up that way)

Voting someone else would give us a chance to get either a starting spawn or someone else who might have been early convert (spawnling attack N1 or infected on away mission, working on building, whatever). Dubb is a known non-spawn (spawnling, attacked N2) at this time who we double up tomorrow if Autumn doesn't take care of business.

[hoopsguy]

I think if someone is going to avoid a Dubb vote (I'm very close to doing that) that it has to be on someone who is exhausted. I recognize that puts me in the list too ... go ahead and factor that if you are making a non-Dubb vote.

Going to eat, then come back and look at others who are exhausted.

[saldana]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Looking at attack:
75% chance to succeed, attacking a person, equipped with phaser against someone without one .... seems like a pretty good percentage play (not 100%, but inching up that way)

Voting someone else would give us a chance to get either a starting spawn or someone else who might have been early convert (spawnling attack N1 or infected on away mission, working on building, whatever). Dubb is a known non-spawn (spawnling, attacked N2) at this time who we double up tomorrow if Autumn doesn't take care of business.

OR, we kill a completely innocent survivor.

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by saldana

OR, we kill a completely innocent survivor.

Are you kidding me? Who are we going to lynch tomorrow? Whoever that is, lynch them now. We're going to lynch someone every day, what does it matter to you if we do it now or then?

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by Simbo Klice

Here's the thing though- I liked that idea, but I just read it and it says you attack him. If you attack him you might lose, you might just wound him, you might take a wound, etc. I get that it's a good use of your ability, that you get a bonus from your phaser, and all the rest but a lynch today or tomorrow seems more definite.

Okay, if I get a bad 2% roll or whatever, we lynch him tomorrow.

[hoopsguy]

Saldana, we absolutely could do that - but we could do that with any lynch vote. It isn't like we are trading a "starting wolf" - and we have pretty good information to lay the groundwork for a vote on a "starting/mutating" wolf vote with the exhausted trail.

I recognize that everyone isn't going to be lined up with the idea, and maybe we can't get seven votes. But we don't learn all that much by lynching Dubb, in my mind. I would rather chase a high(er) risk, high reward strategy in this spot, I think.

[saldana]

Originally Posted by Autumn

Are you kidding me? Who are we going to lynch tomorrow? Whoever that is, lynch them now. We're going to lynch someone every day, what does it matter to you if we do it now or then?

because we have no idea who we are going to lynch tomorrow...by tomorrow we will have an entire additional day's worth of data...night actions (spying), day actions (2 doctor scans)...the odds for tomorrow are way better than any other odds we have for today.

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

The Crew

Chief Engineer - hoopsguy Exhausted
Sergeant at Arms - Danny Exhausted
Slavemaster - Chubby Exhausted
Gally Master - Julio Exhausted
Security Crewman - dubb Exhausted
Abe Sargent Exhausted

Here are your exhausted folk.

[Simbo Klice]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Looking at attack:
75% chance to succeed, attacking a person, equipped with phaser against someone without one .... seems like a pretty good percentage play (not 100%, but inching up that way)

Voting someone else would give us a chance to get either a starting spawn or someone else who might have been early convert (spawnling attack N1 or infected on away mission, working on building, whatever). Dubb is a known non-spawn (spawnling, attacked N2) at this time who we double up tomorrow if Autumn doesn't take care of business.

If I understand completely (and this is my first spawn game) succeed =/= kill though, there's also a chance of wounding. But then we could finish the job tomorrow or Autumn could do it the next night if there's another lead, just noting that.

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

I think if someone is going to avoid a Dubb vote (I'm very close to doing that) that it has to be on someone who is exhausted. I recognize that puts me in the list too ... go ahead and factor that if you are making a non-Dubb vote.

Going to eat, then come back and look at others who are exhausted.

I brought this up earlier and think it's a good line of thinking. But if we vote dubb today, there's more of that information tomorrow. Lot of different balances on the scale here.

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by saldana

because we have no idea who we are going to lynch tomorrow...by tomorrow we will have an entire additional day's worth of data...night actions (spying), day actions (2 doctor scans)...the odds for tomorrow are way better than any other odds we have for today.

Would you ahve said that this morning? That we should just skip today's lynch because we'll know more tomorrow? We have plenty of information today. More so than in almost any game of Werewolf.

[Shiggles]

Ok ok, so i am actionless, so, in order to cast wombat protection on ANYONE im gonna need them to come to my bunk tonight and hold some sticks and dream catchers. Heyyyyy autumnnnnnnn, feel like participating in a tribal ritual??? ;-)

So far its worked! cause both people are alive, just sad to see mr dubb got infected, maybe i should start selling them mystical juju's of awesomeness...

But anyways i digress. I have no proof, just speculation of how some pushier people in the thread seem to be distracting from things. Although the problem mainly is, do we kill dubb tonight, because it may end up killing us if he mutates (but we dont know the timeframe). The alternative way of thinking is that by using the vote on dubb, the spawn have effictvely wasted one of our turns of lynching one of their more important roles, so that their numbers remain relatively unchanged, and we lose a security officer and the suspicion is thrown off of one of theirs because we, and i quote, "GOT ONE! WOOOOO" food for thought.

[hoopsguy]

Going with a lynch vote that isn't Dubb also gives us meaningful voting data today - something we already don't have from Day 1. That would be meaningless if we just have to take out Dubb tomorrow, but with Autumn presenting an option for removing Dubb in the evening it becomes valuable.

Did anyone have a chance to put together a vote/unvote chart from Day 2? If so, I would love that as a data point for tonight's vote as well ...

[Shiggles]

Well, since i must unfortunetly depart, and i need to cast a vote for someone really soon, and i'll get back after deadline to discuss (maybe, i might be gone the night) i shall cast my vote now and let the repurcussions stand for itself.

Vote Execute Danny

[CrimsonFox]

JAG, regarding the fence. An engineer can "repair" it. And this repair will only make it last one more cycle.

So instead of burning out in the morning, it will last til night.

[Autumn]

I'm all for voting from the Exhausted list. That seems sensible, although the rules say there is only an increased risk that a Spawn becomes exhausted while making a Spawnling attack, not a definite chance. I see Shiggles has bumped Danny up. I will put someone else from the list into the running.

unvote CrimsonFox
vote Julio Riddols

[Julio Riddols]

Conversely, trying to lynch someone else tonight could easily result in us killing one of our own, leaving us not one, but 2 people down at the end of the night.

I somewhat agree with dubb that saldana should try a second time to cure him tomorrow. Dubb may not convert before he can be saved.

There is also an idea in my mind that saldana could very well have "faked" his way through the examination. None of us know the chances of a successful examination scenario, but a "very good" chance that wasn't converted can't just be chalked up to bad luck. We have to consider that the failure may have been intentional.

[Julio Riddols]

Excuse me, that should read "good" chance, not "very good".

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by Julio Riddols

There is also an idea in my mind that saldana could very well have "faked" his way through the examination. None of us know the chances of a successful examination scenario, but a "very good" chance that wasn't converted can't just be chalked up to bad luck. We have to consider that the failure may have been intentional.

So you're saying Saldana may have pretended to do the exam? Because why, he's a Spawn? So in this scenario Dubb is not really a Spawnling, or at least may not be, but a Spawn Saldana took the chance to get someone lynched. You think Saldana would expose himself like that just for the chance to get a mislynch?

[Julio Riddols]

Also, I got exhausted patrolling last night. I think that's pretty obvious.

[Julio Riddols]

Originally Posted by Autumn

So you're saying Saldana may have pretended to do the exam? Because why, he's a Spawn? So in this scenario Dubb is not really a Spawnling, or at least may not be, but a Spawn Saldana took the chance to get someone lynched. You think Saldana would expose himself like that just for the chance to get a mislynch?

I'm not saying it with 100 percent certainty, I am just thinking it should be considered. He may know dubb is a spawnling, but he also may have already known that beforehand.

[Autumn]

True, Saldana is definitely not cleared just by delivering us a Spawnling, especially one who gave himself up.

[Julio Riddols]

This is why I think he should try again to cure dubb tomorrow. Worst case scenario its a 1/1 trade. Best case, we essentially get 2 spawn. I think thats better than lynching a random and hoping for the best, in which case it may very well end up being a 0/1 tradeoff.

[Julio Riddols]

Of course a no lynch tonight could also be a bad deal for us, although I still think it would be ok to do as long as the above happens tomorrow.

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by Julio Riddols

I somewhat agree with dubb that saldana should try a second time to cure him tomorrow. Dubb may not convert before he can be saved.
.

Unless we get clarification on time from spawnling attack to spawn conversion complete, I don't think we can put our doc in that line of fire.

[Chubby]

so instead of voting for a spawnling we should vote for someone we don't have a good inkling for?

vote dubb

[britrock88]

VOTE COUNT

danny (2) - dubb (1551), shiggles (1624)
dubb (2) - saldana (1486), abe (1514)
julio - autumn (1626)
hoops - cf (1372)
simbo - danny (1450)

---

BTW, I am exhausted because I trained with Abe last night. Still trying to decide among the options we have now.

[Julio Riddols]

Can you remind me why you worked on power facility 2 last night? I'm trying to find the order to do it, but I don't know if I am missing it or not.

[britrock88]

VOTE COUNT

dubb (3) - saldana (1486), abe (1514), chubby (1636)
danny (2) - dubb (1551), shiggles (1624)
julio - autumn (1626)
hoops - cf (1372)
simbo - danny (1450)

[Julio Riddols]

That's why we can't use the brig, right?

[CrimsonFox]

Something is a little weird. I thought that if someone was a spawnling they are curable. Cause the definition of spawnling said if they are not cured in time they will become a spawn. So if it's too late isn't dubb a spawn and not a spawnling?

[dubb93]

Originally Posted by CrimsonFox

Something is a little weird. I thought that if someone was a spawnling they are curable. Cause the definition of spawnling said if they are not cured in time they will become a spawn. So if it's too late isn't dubb a spawn and not a spawnling?

But if it's too late surely I would have killed brave, brave Sir Saldana. No?

[Chief Rum]

Most of the remaining exhausted are security crewmen, and we will already be losing dubb. So of those exhausted remaining who are not security crewmen, I am thinking the best target for a vote besides dubb is hoops. The only other non-options are the britrock-Abe training pair, and that would take some luck for them to both be Spawn to back each other up there.

VOTE EXECUTE HOOPS

[Julio Riddols]

Originally Posted by CrimsonFox

Something is a little weird. I thought that if someone was a spawnling they are curable. Cause the definition of spawnling said if they are not cured in time they will become a spawn. So if it's too late isn't dubb a spawn and not a spawnling?

It's not too late yet. There is no defined time frame for how long it takes someone to change to full spawn after they become a spawnling.

[Julio Riddols]

Also, he has no powers until he becomes a full on spawn. He can't do anything to any of us until then. We are not putting ourselves at greater risk by leaving dubb alive and trying again tomorrow.

[Julio Riddols]

If we were to give him another chance to be cured tomorrow, we could potentially save a survivor, and also vet saldana a little. Again, at worst, we end up at a 1/1 tradeoff.

[Chubby]

Originally Posted by Julio Riddols

Also, he has no powers until he becomes a full on spawn. He can't do anything to any of us until then. We are not putting ourselves at greater risk by leaving dubb alive and trying again tomorrow.

except knowingly allowing the spawn to increase their numbers. and risking our doctors health.

[Chubby]

Originally Posted by Julio Riddols

If we were to give him another chance to be cured tomorrow, we could potentially save a survivor, and also vet saldana a little. Again, at worst, we end up at a 1/1 tradeoff.

why risk losing our doc if we're just going to vote him off tomorrow anyways?

[Julio Riddols]

Well, because everything is a risk. Anything we do right now is a risk. By lynching dubb tonight, all we do is kill someone who would eventually be a spawn. We can kill him later. He can't do anything now, since he is not yet a spawn. If we vote for someone else, we also risk killing off one of our own. This would be worse than letting dubb live, and I would say there is a much greater chance of us hitting one of our own than hitting a spawn.

[CrimsonFox]

saldana speaks the truth

dubb is a spawnling and cannot be cured. End of discussion. I'm an empath and he speaks truth.