WW LXVII -- The Return of Divination Nation! (GAME OVER STUDENTS WIN!!!)

[claphamsa]

damit!

[RendeR]

Shit. That sucks big ones.


Sorry DC.

[Chief Rum]

She was a jock?

Man, that hurts twice. And we were screwed either way then, since I am still a villager. We need to get a wolf in one of these rundowns.

[MikeVic]

What does a jock mean? Lower accuracy? Higher?

[claphamsa]

yeah, im wondering about these rolls... are there more? ive never played in a game when we didnt even know what rolls may be ther.e..

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by MikeVic

What does a jock mean? Lower accuracy? Higher?

I think it's a BG. Or the last time we lost a jock (N1, I think), he was a BG.

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

She was a jock?

Man, that hurts twice. And we were screwed either way then, since I am still a villager. We need to get a wolf in one of these rundowns.

I don't think I'm just speaking for myself when I say I'm not so sure of that.

The late direction was all in one movement: away from CR. I'm 100% sure we have some villagers in that mix. But I can't think we JUST have villagers in that mix.

[oliegirl]

DAMN DAMN DAMN!!!!

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

Assuming you're talking about me, did you note that exactly what I said would happen did? That BOTH Lathum and nfg22 were going to end up villagers? Those are the two candidates that night. I said I didn't think either was a wolf and refused to hang them.

If I were a wolf, I would have known without a doubt they were both villagers. Why would I not just choose to hang one or the other? In the long run, both sets of voters look bad, because both nfg22 and Lathum are villagers. It would be far more eye-catching to not vote for either, bringing a ton of attention on myself.

Why on Earth would I (as a hypothetical wolf) put that kinda target on myself on N2?

Another thing, I did a ton of work doing the stats bit, and kept track of scans for two days before yesterday's two-job day stopped me. Recall when have I ever done that much work as a wolf?

I'm not a wolf. I have even come up good in 7 of 8 scans (I think) by different people. I'm sure you'll toss on the whole wolf manipulation theory, but come on, there are at most five wolves, and we know one is cronin (the only one who scanned me as a wolf, strangely enough, and who was coming after me pretty hard since D1), and by your theory, I am another and of course have not scanned myself. How much manipulation do you think is going on on one person? Even with three other wolves lying (going by your theory), that is four student scans on me. There's only a 6% chance of four villagers (assuming average 50% accuracy) all scanning a wolfy me as a villager.

Looks like I better bring this up again, as it appears Barkeep missed it.

Continue arguing in the face of both logic and the scan numbers, and I am going to begin to assume you have an agenda.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

I don't think I'm just speaking for myself when I say I'm not so sure of that.

The late direction was all in one movement: away from CR. I'm 100% sure we have some villagers in that mix. But I can't think we JUST have villagers in that mix.

Oh, and that move away from CR (which included me, of course, what vote did you think I would put) was after that post as well. I think I say a lot of things that make sense. Do you disagree?

At least scans of me are free to come up as villager or wolf, and not worked up to always come up villager like yourself.

[Mr. Wednesday]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

Even with three other wolves lying (going by your theory), that is four student scans on me. There's only a 6% chance of four villagers (assuming average 50% accuracy) all scanning a wolfy me as a villager.

Yeah, but there's also only a 6% chance of them all scanning non-wolfy you as a villager. That's the thing that keeps getting overlooked in these misguided appeals to blind scan accuracy.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Mr. Wednesday

Yeah, but there's also only a 6% chance of them all scanning non-wolfy you as a villager. That's the thing that keeps getting overlooked in these misguided appeals to blind scan accuracy.

Yes, but if I'm a villager, and probably don't have three wolves lying to save me, do I? Then my village scans goes up possibly all the way to seven all saying I am a villager. Regardless, you're looking at an unlikely confluence of events that would result in me being a wolf. And that'signoring the other points I make.

You argue to ignore scan results. Okay, then please explain why, as a wolf knowing both Lathum and nfg22 are villagers, I would choose to vote elsewhere and put such a big target on myself?

Honestly, it's amazing to me the logical inconsistencies with their arguments that people are willing to ignore in an ultimately failed attempt to be "right".

[path12]

Damnit, I had a nice description typed up and lost the goddamn thing. OK. Flavor tomorrow.

Pieces of claphamsa were found through the school this morning. Bsak16 was also found dead in his bed, a look of terror on his face.

CLAPHAMSA, STUDENT AND EMPATH, HAS BEEN KILLED. HIS FELLOW EMPATH, BSAK16, ALSO DIED. Bsak16 was also a Math Whiz, instead of scanning he was able to read another players accuracy rate.

[Mr. Wednesday]

I'm not trying to make any argument on what you are or aren't. I'm just arguing that villager or wolf, you've got a highly improbable collection of scan results on you.

[Mr. Wednesday]

Son of a bitch.

[mauchow]

Why did two die tonight?

[ntndeacon]

Well CRAP!!!!!!!!!! I hate losing Bsak. math whiz. that was valuable info.

[ntndeacon]

good question mau. I have no idea

[mauchow]

And he never told us a thing.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Mr. Wednesday

I'm not trying to make any argument on what you are or aren't. I'm just arguing that villager or wolf, you've got a highly improbable collection of scan results on you.

Yeah, true enough.

[RendeR]

Yeah WTF? It would appear the empaths were connected, what? telepathically? One dies and the other dies of fright or something?

Seriously fucked UP.

Ok we have some issues here, by my count that puts us at 12 players left? of which we should assume at least 3 wolves are left, so we're looking at crunch time people. a 9-3 ratio starts looking real bad when we are losing 2 people a night let alone THREE. Fuckin-a.....

[Chief Rum]

Guys, this is bad. We have not only lynched only villagers, we have now had a two-kill night. If it weren't for jeheinz's savvy move with cronin, we would be in even more deep doodoo then before.

We need to start putting things together and get a move on here.

ntndeacon came up as a wolf, BTW.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by mauboy1

Why did two die tonight?

Seems likely it was the empath connection.

[path12]

To clarify, Bsak and clapham were empaths. They were able to communicate with each other privately, but their link was such that if one died, the other did also.

All PM's should be out now. Day 5 is underway, deadline at 9PM EST tomorrow. We'll decide what to do with the weekend during the day, feel free to state your preference.

[Mr. Wednesday]

Originally Posted by mauboy1

Why did two die tonight?

It's a bog standard rule variation for WW (two players who are linked, so killing one offs the other), just one that hadn't been announced beforehand.

[RendeR]

Well its pretty worthless to say, but my scan of Bsak came back Viooager...glad I know that NOW...fuck.

[Mr. Wednesday]

Dola, I got a student return on The Jackal. I'm one-and-one on non-night-zero scans, and one-and-oh on my night zero scan.

[RendeR]

Vioooooooager....Gah, nice spelling Ren =)

SOrry guys, I've been into the RUmpleminz tonight

[Mr. Wednesday]

Originally Posted by RendeR

Well its pretty worthless to say, but my scan of Bsak came back Viooager...glad I know that NOW...fuck.

That's not worthless at all. It's another data point on your accuracy.

[mauchow]

MikeVic came back as a student.

[RendeR]

Originally Posted by Mr. Wednesday

That's not worthless at all. It's another data point on your accuracy.

Yeah I suppose, just seems rather paltry in comparison to the loss of the player in my current condition =)

[claphamsa]

pig fuckers!

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

Oh, and that move away from CR (which included me, of course, what vote did you think I would put) was after that post as well. I think I say a lot of things that make sense. Do you disagree?

At least scans of me are free to come up as villager or wolf, and not worked up to always come up villager like yourself.

Obviously I expected you not to vote for you.

But:

A. As Mr. W pointed out the numbers aren't as kind to you as you think
B. You'd rather have drawn suspicion to yourself for voting strangely sure, but as a wolf you'd know 100% that both players were villagers. And then, when such a fact was revealed (as you knew that after the close vote the other player would likely bite it the next day) you can present exactly the argument you're presenting now. There is NO risk for a wolf saying that two players up for lynching are both villagers cause they know it to be true.

[Dr. Sak]

Originally Posted by claphamsa

pig fuckers!

way to get me killed...jerk

[claphamsa]

[Barkeep49]

I scanned CR, as I believe MikeVic has said I should, and he came up human.

[jeheinz72]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

I scanned CR, as I believe MikeVic has said I should, and he came up human.

No, you were supposed to scan NTN, and this hurts since the other person who scanned NTN came back wolf

[oliegirl]

My scan on Mr. W came back as student...

I'm out til about 11, then will be on but in training (again) so in and out of the conversation.

We need someone who is really good with figures/stats to take a long hard look at the numbers we have - I suck at math and that kind of thing or I'd offer. We are in a do or die situation at this point...another bad lynch or two on our part and we'll have no hopes of winning.

[jeheinz72]

Oh, and ARGH. Losing 3 good guys, including a MathWhiz and a 2nd jock really really hurts. I'm working on the scan results now

[jeheinz72]

Originally Posted by oliegirl

My scan on Mr. W came back as student...

I'm out til about 11, then will be on but in training (again) so in and out of the conversation.

We need someone who is really good with figures/stats to take a long hard look at the numbers we have - I suck at math and that kind of thing or I'd offer. We are in a do or die situation at this point...another bad lynch or two on our part and we'll have no hopes of winning.

I'm going to lay all the numbers out in a bit here...

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by jeheinz72

No, you were supposed to scan NTN, and this hurts since the other person who scanned NTN came back wolf

I apologize. I climbed out of bed to get my scan in as I was exhuasted after a 17 hour day. I misread the post. I feel really bad since I was the one who pushed the plan in the first place.

[Pumpy Tudors]

SnDvls came up as a wolf for me. I hope that helps. I can't believe we lost three students in one night, and they were all special ones, too. My first WW game is not going so well.

[jeheinz72]

In all the hub-bub, almost forgot

Jackal scanned as a Student

[jeheinz72]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

I apologize. I climbed out of bed to get my scan in as I was exhuasted after a 17 hour day. I misread the post. I feel really bad since I was the one who pushed the plan in the first place.

No worries BK, it happens, plans like that can get confusing. I re-wrote how I presented it like twice because it was hard to make it easy to understand

[jeheinz72]

Here is what I have so far from Night 4, can someone double check, I'd like to avoid the mistakes I almost made yesterday

BK scanned CR as Student
CR scanned NTN as Wolf
jeheinz72 scanned The Jackal as Student
Mau scanned MikeVic as Student
Olie scanned Mr. W as Student
PumpyTudors scanned SnDvls as Wolf
Render scanned bsak as Student (confirmed correct)

[jeheinz72]

Which means we're missing Night 4 scans from:

MikeVic, Mr. W, NTN, SnDvls, TheJackal

I'd like to have some of those come in before postulating anything really.

[SnDvls]

I scanned MikeVic per the agreement he came up student for me

[MikeVic]

I scanned olie and she came back wolf.

Not counting N-0, that's three wolf scans for me and clap is a confirmed villager... so I don't know what to think about my scans, especially since N-0 was a correct scan. I could be one of those 50% guys.

[MikeVic]

Voting history:

Day 1 votes:

No Lynch 9 -- Greyroofoo(287), The Jackal(289), Lathum(321), Nfg22(351), SnDvls(356), MikeVic(403), Chief Rum(407), oliegirl(430), saldana(437)

Nfg22 3 -- Barkeep49(239), ntndeacon(334), Passacaglia(383)

jeheinz72 2 -- Dodgerchick(202), Pumpy Tudors(207)

The Jackal 1 -- claphamsa(91)

RendeR 1 -- st.cronin(210)

Lathum 1 -- RendeR(339)

ntndeacon 1 -- Bsak16(409)

claphamsa 1 -- Mr. Wednesday(440)

Not voted: mauboy1, jeheinz72


Day 2 votes:

Lathum - 8 - nfg22 (787), Barkeep49 (791), DodgerChick (800), Passacaglia (880), st.cronin (882), RendeR (887), mauboy1 (926), Mr. Wednesday (985)

nfg22 - 7 - Pumpy Tudors(598), Bsak16(628), MikeVic (757), claphamsa (770), Lathum (830), oliegirl (865), saldana (866)

No Lynch - 2 - The Jackal (736), SnDvls (762)

Passacaglia - 1 - ntndeacon(738)

Dodgerchick - 1 - jeheinz72 (764)

Barkeep49 - 1 - Chief Rum (986)


Day 3 votes:

nfg22 - 14 - Chief Rum (1097), saldana (1101), oliegirl (1156), jeheinz72 (1168), MikeVic (1173), Pumpy Tudors (1175), Barkeep49 (1184), bsak16 (1226), mauboy1 (1228), Mr. Wednesday (1255), SnDvls (1261), RendeR (1264), ntndeacon (1291), Dodgerchick (1294)

Chief Rum - 2 - st.cronin (1263), nfg22 (1267)

Dodgerchick - 1 - The Jackal (1113)

st.cronin - 1 - claphamsa (1130)


Day 4 votes:

Dodgerchick - 8 - The Jackal, jeheinz, RendeR, Chief, bsak, clapham, ntndeacon, MikeVic

Chief Rum - 5 - mauboy1, Barkeep, Mr W, oliegirl, Dodgerchick

mauboy1 - 2 - SnDvls, Pumpy Tudors

[MikeVic]

I'll be putting analysis as I see it...

NTN:
-In the first two days, keeps his votes on known villagers that weren't in the running to be lynched. And then day 3 and 4 he puts in late votes to the eventual lynched known villagers.