Invasion of Ukraine

[Edward64]

Supposedly no confirmation it was Ukrainians but you'd think it was them or someone allied with them.

Some pretty bad stuff.

40 dead, more than 100 wounded, says FSB
Forty people are dead and more than 100 others are wounded following shooting attacks at Crocus City Hall outside Moscow on Friday night, according to Russia’s Federal Security Service.

According to IFX, up to five gunmen were involved in the attacks.

[GrantDawg]

Looks like a lot of speculation about a "false flag" attack to try drum up more recruitment and support for the Ukraine attack, but they just now announced arrest warrants for 5 men from a Muslim-majority region in Norrh Ossetia. There are reports one gunman is already in custody. Meanwhile the concert venue is burning.

Edit: No dola. Ed posted.

[RainMaker]

It's probably from the Southern region of Russia. They've been battling extremists in the region for a long time.

[JPhillips]

ISIS has claimed responsibility.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Not sure I remember the last reasonably-sized news story that drew more bot posts to Twitter than this one.

[CrimsonFox]

i see newly reelected putin is celebrating his victory with a mass shooting

[Edward64]

Good that it wasn’t Ukraine.

They would have lost a lot of western support.

[Edward64]

Just a thought experiment.

Assuming they did do the attack ... anyone outraged, disgusted etc. by the treatment of the perps?

[Edward64]

Next week should be fun! Let's get to a bill and a vote, one way or another.

The Senate faces a tough choice on Ukraine aid as Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) says the House will move a Ukraine package after the April recess, but one that could be strikingly different from the $95 billion package the upper chamber passed in February.

The Speaker has already told Republican senators that a substantial portion of the assistance in the House bill would be provided in the form of a loan, an idea championed by former President Trump but initially dismissed by Senate leaders in both parties.

I like the "loan" compromise, an easy way to win some GOP votes. I'd assume when the war ends and whoever is in power can give good or extend repayment terms.

He has floated the idea of attaching language to reverse President Biden’s moratorium on new permits for liquified natural gas export facilities or provisions to pay for some aid to Ukraine by seizing Russian assets.

I'd think small price for Joe to pay especially in lieu of border security.

But she warned adding strong border security is a “non-starter for the Democrats, and the Speaker knowns that.”

All in all, seems the GOP should have made a deal back in Dec for Ukraine-aid-is-a-loan and also border security.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by Edward64

Good that it wasn’t Ukraine.

They would have lost a lot of western support.

Russia is our enemy and we've been pseudo-allied with ISKP for the past decade. Why would the West be upset with a group we helped create attacking an enemy?

[cuervo72]

Horseshoe complete.

Amendments offered to House Ukraine aid bill

Rep. M. Taylor Greene (R-GA): "Requires all Members of Congress who vote in favor of Act to conscript in the Ukrainian Military"

Rep. Jared Moskowitz (D-FL): Appointing Rep. M. Taylor Greene as "Putin's Special envoy to Congress"

— Scott MacFarlane (@MacFarlaneNews) April 18, 2024

[RainMaker]

I mean, she's kind of right. What's the point of the weapons if we're not taking the war seriously? Outside of the obvious funneling of money to defense contractors.

[SirFozzie]

Most of us are taking the war seriously. She's not.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by SirFozzie

Most of us are taking the war seriously. She's not.

Tell that to the Biden administration.




[SirFozzie]

there's a difference between "Wanting Ukraine to be able to defend itself against Russian aggression" and "Willing to start World War III"

[RainMaker]

Hitting their oil refineries seems like a really good way to defend yourself against Russian aggression. It's attacking Russia's biggest weakness. This is a war after all.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by SirFozzie

Most of us are taking the war seriously. She's not.

She may actually have a more realistic attitude about it.

And she ain't somebody I tend to give high marks for connectivity to reality.

[dubb93]

We should take it further as people tend to serve too long in Congress. You vote yes to a medical bill you are required to go become a doctor. Yes to a tax bill you go off to work for the IRS. You vote yes on an infrastructure bill you go sign up with your state department of transportation for full time employment. Each member gets one yes vote and then we find them a real job in that field.

[RainMaker]

Ukraine has forced conscription. So you're forcing others to die for your cause. Seems only fair to have some skin in the game.

Those other things you mentioned does not include a death sentence for tens of thousands of people who want no part of the war.

[cuervo72]

H.R. 8035 – Ukraine Security Supplemental Appropriations Act, 2024 | House of Representatives Committee on Rules

https://amendments-rules.house.gov/a...8131602176.pdf

127 Version 1 Greene (GA) Republican Prohibits funding until Ukraine lifts restrictions on the right of ethnic minorities, including Hungarians in Transcarpathia, to use their native languages in schools.

Okay then...

[Edward64]

Pretty good but like this one better.

Access to this page has been denied

Rep. Jared Moskowitz (D-Fla.) trolled Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) with a pair of amendments that highlight the Georgia Republican’s frequent embrace of pro-Russia misinformation and her opposition to foreign aid.

The first amendment calls for Greene to be appointed “Vladimir Putin’s Special Envoy to the United States Congress.”

The second amendment renames Greene’s office in the Cannon House Office Building as the “Neville Chamberlain Room” — a reference to the World War II-era British prime minister who pursued a failed policy of appeasement toward Nazi Germany in the hope of avoiding a larger war.

AMENDMENT TO H.R. 8035
OFFERED BY Mr. Moskowitz of Florida

At the end of the bill (before the short title), insert the following:
SEC. ___

Resolved, that 403 Cannon House Office Building be renamed the “Neville Chamberlain Room”

Kinda childish but why the heck not.

[Edward64]

Ukraine claims a Russian Tu-22M3 shot down over Russia. But Russia claims technical malfunction. Russia reports at least 3 of 4 survived.

The Russian defence ministry said: 'A Russian Air Force's Tu-22M3 crashed in the Stavropol region after performing a combat mission while returning to its home airfield.

'The pilots ejected, three crew members were evacuated by a search and rescue team, and a search for one pilot is underway.

'There was no ammunition on board, the aircraft went down in a deserted area. There is no damage on the ground.

'According to preliminary data, the cause of the accident was a technical malfunction.'

Ukraine meanwhile claimed the plane had been downed by the airforce working in conjunction with Ukrainian intelligence.

Morbidly fascinating watching it tailspin to the ground like that.

[Edward64]

I agree with US conditions not to use US weapons inside Russia proper in the first couple years. But we are now in a "new normal" in the war and both sides have incrementally escalated as the war progressed.

So yeah, I'm hoping Joe will let Ukraine use US weapons to strike inside Russia. The only condition he needs to insist on is only military targets.

Ukraine can strike inside Russia with British weapons, UK’s Cameron says – POLITICO

Ukraine has the "right" to use British-supplied weapons to strike Russia inside its own territory, U.K. Foreign Secretary David Cameron said on a trip to Kyiv.
:
Since the beginning of the war, Ukraine’s Western partners have set one condition for Kyiv to keep military aid coming – don’t strike in Russia. But countries including Finland and Latvia have since said they support Ukraine's right to use weapons they have provided to defend itself, including strikes in Russia.

[RainMaker]

Hundreds of billions invested and still losing. This country has become experts at losing wars.


Ukraine troops pull back in Kharkiv after Russia offensive

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by Edward64

I agree with US conditions not to use US weapons inside Russia proper in the first couple years. But we are now in a "new normal" in the war and both sides have incrementally escalated as the war progressed.

So yeah, I'm hoping Joe will let Ukraine use US weapons to strike inside Russia. The only condition he needs to insist on is only military targets.

Another small (but significant) escalation. Don't know how Joe defines "close to Kharkiv" but suspect, if the war goes on, that this will be expanded more. Overall, my guess is a good and needed move.

President Joe Biden has given permission to Ukraine to strike inside Russian territory with American munitions, though he has restricted their use so Kyiv can only hit targets over the border close to Kharkiv after Russia made significant advances around the city in the northeastern part of the country close to the Russian border, two US officials told CNN.

[Mota]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

Hundreds of billions invested and still losing. This country has become experts at losing wars.


Ukraine troops pull back in Kharkiv after Russia offensive

Do you really expect Ukraine to win against Russia? That's like the USA going to war against Cuba.

I don't think Ukraine will ever give up, but will there be anything to fight for in a few more years? The whole country is going to be rubble.

Hopefully Russia will have found all of the Nazis by then, since that is why they are waging the war, right?

[Edward64]

Oh great. I don't know how this play out but it can't be good.

I'm guessing its primarily weapons & munitions. But I can see a bunch of NK soldiers on the battlefield which would be weird.

Putin says Russia and North Korea will help each other if attacked, taking ties to a ‘new level’ | CNN

Vladimir Putin said Russia and North Korea have ramped up ties to a “new level,” pledging to help each other if either nation is attacked in a “breakthrough” new partnership announced during the Russian president’s rare visit to the reclusive state.
:
The pair then signed the new strategic partnership to replace previous deals signed in 1961, 2000 and 2001, according to Russian state news agency TASS. “The comprehensive partnership agreement signed today includes, among other things, the provision of mutual assistance in the event of aggression against one of the parties to this agreement,” Putin said after the meeting.

[Edward64]

Another "oh great". South Korea may be getting into the game.

reuters.com

South Korea will review the possibility of supplying weapons to Ukraine, a presidential official said on Thursday, after the leaders of North Korea and Russia signed a pact pledging mutual defence in the event of war.

South Korea has provided non-lethal aid to Ukraine, including mine clearance equipment, but so far has resisted Kyiv's requests for weapons.

Along with Joe letting Ukraine use US weapons to attack inside Russia proper, Russia's summer offensive, both Koreas getting into it etc. just seems like a slow boil/escalation until something pops.

... and then there is China, Taiwan and most recent China-Philippines confrontations.

[Edward64]

Confirmed reports that Ukrainian troops crossed over into Russia. Extent and goal (one rumor is the Kursk nuke plant) is not confirmed. But something big is happening (eg not just a squad incursion).

I like this, hope it does well. Not sure I like the nuke power plant rumor but should distract the rooskies.

[Edward64]

A big explosion(s) in a Russian ammo dump today. There's a huge mushroom cloud at about :21.

The X link below has some post explosion video

x.com


No real idea what's going on there right now. Seems to be a stalemate with small offensive actions in some places, no end in sight.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Edward64

no end in sight.

Don’t you know when Trump is elected he will end it in one day?

[Edward64]

Kinda cute. Those Ukrainians are pretty creative.

One of my more memorable movie scenes was from Aliens where the space marines used an automated, motion sensor machine gun. Nothing in US military, always wondered by (but I'm sure there's a good reason). This reminds me of it.

Blocked

[PilotMan]

When my son and I started flying full acrobatic, non-stabilized fpv drones that could do over 100mph, we agreed that in the battlefield, they would be cheap, and devastating, and couldn't believe that it wasn't being developed yet. Well, now we're here with Ukraine and every other war since then.



We're also moving into the other arena that I feared, and that's the development of fully autonomous drones and fighting weapons that are much cheaper than human life, and can be used to wage near perpetual war. We're there. I figured it would be the US that developed that sort of tactic first, but as long as we're not fighting ON US soil, it has had more time to develop elsewhere. I think Putin and the Russians will be the first. It needs a large country to develop it, and pay for it over the long term. Rebels and terrorists can use it here and there, but a large country will be able to use it to pin another state to the wall with nonstop weapons and virtually no human threat to your own side. From there, it can continue nearly without end.



The development of drone warfare over the past couple years is impressive. It's really been accelerated and the future is bright, or dark, depending on how you look at it.

[GrantDawg]

Everything is still remotely operated. As scary as that is, wait till they are controlled by AI. "Is your name John Conner?"

[RainMaker]

I think we're at that point now. You can send really cheap drones in to cause some chaos. They usually don't do much damage but can flood an air defense system so the more powerful missiles get through. But they also can act as an irritant that makes it costly for the other side.

Weapons are bad but I'm not as concerned about these. It helps level the playing field so smaller countries can resist larger countries. Ukraine would be overrun if it wasn't for their cheap drones.

[PilotMan]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

I think we're at that point now. You can send really cheap drones in to cause some chaos. They usually don't do much damage but can flood an air defense system so the more powerful missiles get through. But they also can act as an irritant that makes it costly for the other side.

Weapons are bad but I'm not as concerned about these. It helps level the playing field so smaller countries can resist larger countries. Ukraine would be overrun if it wasn't for their cheap drones.

For now. The scale that large countries are capable of producing and implementing and the web, neural nature of their capabilities dwarfs what a small country can do. Once they catch up, it won't even be close.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by PilotMan

For now. The scale that large countries are capable of producing and implementing and the web, neural nature of their capabilities dwarfs what a small country can do. Once they catch up, it won't even be close.

They can already wipe those countries off the map in minutes. It's just expensive. There really isn't a ton more they need to advance on militarily against those small countries with the air superiority they have. There's only so many times you can bomb a plot of land.

It levels the playing field by making it incredibly expensive to fight wars. Small countries can launch these flying lawnmowers that cost $100k that require $10 million dollar missiles to shoot down. They can also be extremely mobile. It's just a modern day guerilla war tactic that I think is good for the world.

[Edward64]

North Korea sending troops to Russia is concerning. From what I've read, they are not at the front-front lines (yet). Rumblings from South Korea also sending some troops to Ukraine is another step towards a wider war.

Assuming Kamala wins, she needs to make a decision for the US to scale back, continue as is, or increase support.

China-Taiwan is the bigger threat but Ukraine is the more immediate. Allies better have a good plan when Spring comes around.

[BishopMVP]

Originally Posted by Edward64

North Korea sending troops to Russia is concerning. From what I've read, they are not at the front-front lines (yet). Rumblings from South Korea also sending some troops to Ukraine is another step towards a wider war.

South Korea is presumably very on Ukraine's side but why would they send troops to the frontlines? Russia and China are the threats vs them and their best defense is the US backing them if attacked, they aren't going to go beyond the US to support a Ukraine or Taiwan and risk instigating in a time of US political uncertainty.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by BishopMVP

South Korea is presumably very on Ukraine's side but why would they send troops to the frontlines? Russia and China are the threats vs them and their best defense is the US backing them if attacked, they aren't going to go beyond the US to support a Ukraine or Taiwan and risk instigating in a time of US political uncertainty.

FWIW.

Basically, to help with the weapon systems and to gather intel. But no, not battalions/brigades of troops.

South Korea Could Send Advisors, Weapons To Ukraine Over North Korean Troop Movements

That information comes as Seoul is considering sending advisors and heavy weapons to Ukraine in response to Pyongyang’s deployment to Russia of upwards of 12,000 soldiers, including elite special operations units.

“There is a possibility that personnel will be sent to Ukraine to monitor the tactics and combat capabilities of North Korean special forces dispatched in support of Russia,” Yonhap reported, citing a source. “If deployed, the team is expected to be composed of military personnel from intelligence units, who could analyze North Korean battlefield tactics or take part in interrogations of captured North Koreans.”

That system is also known as the M-SAM, or Medium-range Surface-to-Air Missile, which is already deployed in South Korea and is optimized to destroy lower-tier ballistic missile threats.

Beyond that, South Korea, a major arms producer, could also provide offensive weapons, like artillery shells, howitzers, tanks and multiple launch rocket systems, Yonhap and the South Korean Chosun-TV media outlet posited.

[GrantDawg]

I wonder if the Korean peninsula produces more weapons per capita than anywhere else in the world.

[Edward64]

Looks like Zelensky is coming to the realization that he's going to have to negotiate. Certainly, a bitter pill to swallow after 3 years, but IMO better to negotiate something, get NATO/UN buffer zone, rebuild, and move on with a smaller but more secured Ukraine.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said Russia’s war in Ukraine will end “faster” when Donald Trump takes over as US president. National security analyst Beth Sanner says Zelensky is signaling to the incoming president that he is willing to go to the negotiating table.

I don't really know what to think of this but tend to be okay with it under that assumption Joe made it clear it was only for military targets and in Kursk.

ATACMS: Biden authorizes Ukraine to use long-range US weapons in Russia | CNN Politics

President Joe Biden has authorized Ukraine to use powerful long-range American weapons inside Russia, according to two US officials familiar with the decision, as North Korean troops deploy in support of Moscow’s effort.
:
The weapons are intended to be used primarily in Kursk for now, a US official said. With its huge troop amassment there, Russia is trying to take Kursk off the table as a potential bargaining chip for the Ukrainians in any future peace talks, something that the US does not want to see. The idea is to help Ukraine hold on to Kursk for as long as possible, the official said.