Werewolf XCVI: The Dark One and The Order of Righteousness (GAME OVER EVIL WINS)

[path12]

Originally Posted by Autumn

I guess that move depends a lot on whether Lathum really knows the BG or not. If he does, jailing Chief probably won't help and will just cost us a day. If he doesn't, and if the wolves don't get lucky, then we could lynch Lathum tomorrow and get another scan tomorrow night.

I would put about.......oh, let's say........zero stock in what Lathum claims at this point.

[Autumn]

I would agree, and have earlier, Path, but if we can use it to save our seer for a while I might be willing.

Is releasing someone from prison a night action?

[MartinD]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

But you're definitely reading that because that's what you thought all along. Why?

It's in my nature to always look for the worst-case scenario (I'm an actuary, and pessimism is almost a prerequisite for that particular profession...) The description of Tyrith's lynching (with the 'spirit' leaving the dead body) made it blatantly obvious (to me, at least) that there was at least a possibility of the Dark One making a comeback in some shape or form at a later stage of the game - possibly immediately, but it wasn't unreasonable to think that it may take a day or two (or that the wolves might have to carry out some sort of task to bring the Dark One back).

The descriptions used in the Night 4 update suggest to me that the Dark One has returned. This is just my interpretation, though - am not going to argue with you if you have a different view.

[MartinD]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

Also, you're holding out on us -- I really think you should come out with what you know at this point.

I really don't have a lot to come out with that isn't already public knowledge - my reading of this game hasn't been very good up to this point (and that's being polite - 'bloody awful' is probably a bit closer to the truth!) I'm pretty sure that Lathum is the cultist (but that doesn't exactly take a lot of thought), and have Barkeep and SnDvls on my 'suspect' list (Barkeep from his early actions and his 'clearance' by Lathum - SnDvls is more a gut feel than being able to point at specific incidents or evidence).

I am a villager, but not vanilla - have an unlisted role, but one that could be good for the village or good for the wolves. I can't really say much more without giving it away completely, though.

Anything more that I can help with?

[lerriuqs]

Originally Posted by Autumn

I would agree, and have earlier, Path, but if we can use it to save our seer for a while I might be willing.

Is releasing someone from prison a night action?

It is for the King, but apparently not for Abe.

[Autumn]

Hmm, I think Abe said he can't use his ability anymore.

[Passacaglia]

No shit, you're an actuary, too? What field? That's awesome. I see what you're saying about how you've read the posts from dubb about it, but it seems like a weird mechanic, and I felt like you'd been harping on it a bit. I'd been content to ignore that, but now that I'm considering putting CR in jail, I feel like I need to know whether or not the Dark One could return before trying that plan.

[Autumn]

So, since we don't know the order of night actions, Pass wouldn't be able to release Chief until the next night and Chief wouldn't be able to scan until the night after that. If I'm thinking this schedule through right I guess that makes it less useful to jail Chief.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by Autumn

So, since we don't know the order of night actions, Pass wouldn't be able to release Chief until the next night and Chief wouldn't be able to scan until the night after that. If I'm thinking this schedule through right I guess that makes it less useful to jail Chief.

What do you mean by 'the next night'? If we jail him now (Day 5), I could release him Night 5, and he would scan Night 6.

[Autumn]

Well, we don't know whether your release would come before or after the night kill, correct?

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by Autumn

Well, we don't know whether your release would come before or after the night kill, correct?

Oh -- so you're saying that they could kill CR even though he's in jail, expecting that he would be released?

[Passacaglia]

Or are you saying that I might die, and be unable to release him?

[lerriuqs]

Originally Posted by Autumn

Hmm, I think Abe said he can't use his ability anymore.

Did he? If he did, I didn't see it.

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

Oh -- so you're saying that they could kill CR even though he's in jail, expecting that he would be released?

Yeah, I would think that putting him in jail and then releasing him that night might not offer the protection we want, i don't know.

And yes I suppose it's also possible that you would be killed and we couldn't release him 'til the next day, if the BG doesn't protect you instead.

[Autumn]

Yes, I think Abe did, becaues Lathum was all amazed that Clap used his ability on day 2.

[MartinD]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

No shit, you're an actuary, too? What field? That's awesome.

Pensions for the most part (although I've done a bit on the life insurance side as well) - a lot of the work I've done has been on the systems and IT side (valuation model development - that sort of thing). Not doing actuarial work at the moment, though - my last job didn't agree with me in the worst way, so am getting some light relief by working with the Government Statistical Service at the moment (Justice stats, for what it's worth).

How about you?

[/quote]I see what you're saying about how you've read the posts from dubb about it, but it seems like a weird mechanic, and I felt like you'd been harping on it a bit. I'd been content to ignore that, but now that I'm considering putting CR in jail, I feel like I need to know whether or not the Dark One could return before trying that plan.[/quote]

I haven't really mentioned it all that much - it just feels like that when I post so infrequently (well, compared to most of the people in the game ). I do not have anything to back my theory up - it just seems to fit in with the information that's available rather too nicely to be able to ignore the possibility.

If I was to take my thinking a stage further, I suspect that the Dark One has come back by taking over one of the 'vanilla' wolves, rather than by converting a villager. (This is pure speculation, though.)

[MartinD]

Correcting the quote in my previous post...

I see what you're saying about how you've read the posts from dubb about it, but it seems like a weird mechanic, and I felt like you'd been harping on it a bit. I'd been content to ignore that, but now that I'm considering putting CR in jail, I feel like I need to know whether or not the Dark One could return before trying that plan.

I haven't really mentioned it all that much - it just feels like that when I post so infrequently (well, compared to most of the people in the game ). I do not have anything to back my theory up - it just seems to fit in with the information that's available rather too nicely to be able to ignore the possibility.

If I was to take my thinking a stage further, I suspect that the Dark One has come back by taking over one of the 'vanilla' wolves, rather than by converting a villager. (This is pure speculation, though.)

[Autumn]

I'd like to be extra cautious too, Martin. But the rules do say that victory conditions require for us to jail or lynch The DO and his followers. it would seem a bit unfair that lynching him (by duking) didn't stick. I don't know, it just wouldn't seem to match the rules to me.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by Autumn

I'd like to be extra cautious too, Martin. But the rules do say that victory conditions require for us to jail or lynch The DO and his followers. it would seem a bit unfair that lynching him (by duking) didn't stick. I don't know, it just wouldn't seem to match the rules to me.

I agree, but how much do you feel like wagering CR for it? I'm not sure if the rules say, but there's a good chance he can't be protected by the BG while in jail, if the DO is still around.

[MartinD]

Originally Posted by Autumn

I'd like to be extra cautious too, Martin. But the rules do say that victory conditions require for us to jail or lynch The DO and his followers. it would seem a bit unfair that lynching him (by duking) didn't stick. I don't know, it just wouldn't seem to match the rules to me.

I would have thought that it would work by one of the other wolves 'acquiring' the Dark One's powers, as it would be a bit of a giveaway if Tyrith suddenly started posting as a 'live' player - would mean that the village still gets benefit from having killed a wolf, but the wolves still have a player with all of the Dark One's powers (as long as there's a 'vanilla' wolf to take over - if there are no wolves left, village wins).

(This is pure speculation, though - if you think that I'm wrong, go ahead on the assumption that the Dark One has been killed for good.)

[Abe Sargent]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Time to bookmark this quote for future games ...

Deal!

[Lathum]

I'm not sure how I am supposed to feel about the fact that Abe thinks I'm slimy...

[Abe Sargent]

Originally Posted by MartinD

It's in my nature to always look for the worst-case scenario (I'm an actuary, and pessimism is almost a prerequisite for that particular profession...) The description of Tyrith's lynching (with the 'spirit' leaving the dead body) made it blatantly obvious (to me, at least) that there was at least a possibility of the Dark One making a comeback in some shape or form at a later stage of the game - possibly immediately, but it wasn't unreasonable to think that it may take a day or two (or that the wolves might have to carry out some sort of task to bring the Dark One back).

The descriptions used in the Night 4 update suggest to me that the Dark One has returned. This is just my interpretation, though - am not going to argue with you if you have a different view.

I agree. I beleive the DO is back.

[Abe Sargent]

Originally Posted by lerriuqs

It is for the King, but apparently not for Abe.

All used up now. It was one time only.

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

I agree, but how much do you feel like wagering CR for it? I'm not sure if the rules say, but there's a good chance he can't be protected by the BG while in jail, if the DO is still around.

Well, it's not exactly wagering CR, since if we don't jail him I assume he'll be night killed tonight. It's more like wagering leaving Lathum free and wasting some time.

I think the bodyguards can guard in jail, but maybe that was only DAnny's one, I think the other one can't do as much.

And Martin, I agree, that's a possibility. I've pretty much talked myself out of this jail option as it's got too many loopholes, I think. We can leave Chief Rum free and hope that the bodyguard or someone else can pull something off tonight.

[RendeR]

ALright, I have some cleaning to do and the dog needs to go out then I need to get ready to go out tonight (Warhammer night WHOOT!)

VOTE LYNCH LATHUM

Seems fairly obvious we need to eliminate the confusion. I still FIRMLY believe that jailing people we DO NOT know about makes more sense than lynching. Since we've had 4 days now and gone both ways and we still no absolutely NOTHING (how much did you learn from lynches Sal?) I will most likely jump back onto my soap box for jailing only tomorrow/next game day.
Have fun kids!

[Abe Sargent]

Originally Posted by Lathum

I'm not sure how I am supposed to feel about the fact that Abe thinks I'm slimy...

I think you are a slimy wolf or wolf friend.

[Autumn]

Then again, since we don't know the order of night actions, we could jail Chief today, release him tonight and leave it up to the wolves to decide whether to possibly waste a kill attempt on him. It could just as easily come back in our favor as theirs.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by Autumn

Well, it's not exactly wagering CR, since if we don't jail him I assume he'll be night killed tonight. It's more like wagering leaving Lathum free and wasting some time.

I think the bodyguards can guard in jail, but maybe that was only DAnny's one, I think the other one can't do as much.

And Martin, I agree, that's a possibility. I've pretty much talked myself out of this jail option as it's got too many loopholes, I think. We can leave Chief Rum free and hope that the bodyguard or someone else can pull something off tonight.

That's a good point. I guess we're probably screwed either way, really.

[lerriuqs]

The way I look at it - these are the odds,

We have 5 good-semi-good, 1 bad and 8 unknown with likely 3 wolves at large. Even better if Lathum exposes the BG and they're outside this COT.

Now that they're out here, the wolves will be picking them off one by one. We trade lynches for NKs, we have three more days after today to get at least one wolf. And if we lynch some unknowns, we'll get a pile of info as well.

So as nice as it would be to save CR, I think I'm more in agreement now of taking out Lathum and to continue lynching tomorrow and the day after. I don't think the jail is an option any more.

[Autumn]

This is how I get in trouble, thinking out loud here. But I think I'm going to go with CR's original idea. If we lynch Lathum we'll know if he's a cultist or wolf. That way we can ensure that none of the other cleared folks are cultist (or not). That will probably be more useful than possibly saving Chief. So, I'll leave my vote as it is.

[lerriuqs]

VOTE LATHUM LYNCH

[Autumn]

Now who dares ask Dubb about nightfall?? ;-)

[Passacaglia]

Absolutely not me.

[Chief Rum]

All of the conversion mechanics in the rules for the Cultist involve the Dark One. And only the Dark One can break into a prison and attack a prisoner in it. Meaning, if Lathum is alive, the DO can get to him and convert him. Also meaning, no matter where you put me, the DO can get to me.

Write me off, folks. Hope the BG or someone can do something. If I am around for Day 6, great. If not, use my information as best as you can.

Lathum needs to be lynched tonight.

VOTE LYNCH LATHUM

[Autumn]

*wipes a tear away*

[Lathum]

Autumn is the BG

[Passacaglia]

*pours out some of his beer*

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by Lathum

Autumn is the BG

Well now I'm not going to duke it from you, so there!

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

Well now I'm not going to duke it from you, so there!

like you would have anyway!

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by Lathum

like you would have anyway!

Are you calling me a liar?

[Autumn]

Ah good, well that tells me that Lathum is indeed the cultist, if he could ID me, though he obviously misunderstood my role. Unfortunately I'm not the bodyguard but it seems my role, which has to do with the seer, was enough to scare off his type of night kill.

I thought Lathum might be bluffing as I didn't get any indication that I "blocked" anything, and I'm quite sure my role would not have stopped a wolf. But apparently it had a different affect on Drago. The fact that I didn't see anything made me wonder if he was just fishing for details but I guess not. My role is now essentially useless that the seer is revealed, but at least it confirms Lathum's status.

[Autumn]

The other good news is the bodyguard can probably guard Chief tonight then. I had thought maybe he had been guarded at the same time I was watching him, but it seems not.

[Passacaglia]

huh?

[Autumn]

My role basically allowed me to search for the seer at night, to ID them. I think Drago's weaker night kill didn't work since I was already "investigating" Chief. But it wouldn't block a wolf I'm sure.

I've got to go cook up the stir fry, be back in a while.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by Autumn

My role basically allowed me to search for the seer at night, to ID them. I think Drago's weaker night kill didn't work since I was already "investigating" Chief. But it wouldn't block a wolf I'm sure.

I've got to go cook up the stir fry, be back in a while.

oof, now I see why you were so upset about not catching Lathum's hints

[Chief Rum]

Wow, that's great news for the village. Thanks Autumn!

[SnDvls]

what's the weekend plan?

[dubb93]

Originally Posted by SnDvls

what's the weekend plan?

Day 5 ends at 11p tonight. Night 5 ends 4p Saturday. Day 6 runs from 4p Saturday to 11p Monday.

[dubb93]

Without getting too indepth or steering the conversation here I will say that a Follower of The Dark One would not be able to submit an action to kill a jailed player. They are not allowed to kill jailed players and as such would not be able to kill a player who starts the night in jail. I would not accept the kill order and would make them re-submit it.

I'm trying to find the happy balance here between not fully revealing mechanics I don't want to fully reveal at this time(IE Order of Actions) and trying to keep you guys from completely flying blind into the night.