POTUS 2024 - Harris vs Trump - General Election Discussion

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by cuervo72

No point I guess. I suppose these stories - which are sad, yes - work on those same types who get choked up the 1,000th time the news plays a clip of a service member making it home unexpectedly for a graduation ceremony or differently-abled person making basket/scoring touchdown.

(But those other sad stories, they can go screw.)

I think it resonates with a lot of parents and people with military ties as well.

Covid is 4 years ago. Dems need something new. Running on Donald Trump is bad isn't going to work like it did in 2020, not with Biden on top of the ticket.

[Lathum]

dola- I live in a pretty red town and the last few years have noticed a sharp decline in Trump flags, lawn signs, etc...just in the last few days I have seen several reappear. People are fooling themselves if they don't think there is a renewed enthusiasm.

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by Lathum

dola- I live in a pretty red town and the last few years have noticed a sharp decline in Trump flags, lawn signs, etc...just in the last few days I have seen several reappear. People are fooling themselves if they don't think there is a renewed enthusiasm.

Thr GOP will always rally around their candidate. It's a completely different mindset when you see the opposing party or anyone that isn't on your side as an enemy.

[RainMaker]

This is what they're doing to keep people in line. This person is running in a very important House race in a very important state. She is the frontrunner but Dems were fine sabotaging her campaign over Biden.




[Atocep]

Some high ranking dems are apparently telling people they think Biden drops out this weekend.

[GrantDawg]

Everything looks like there a concerted effort by the Democratic leadership to get Biden to step aside. These purposeful leaks (today it is both Pelosi and Obama) seem pretty calculated, and seems to have stemmed from the fact that Schumer and Jefferies encouraged Biden this weekend to step aside, and instead his people pushed forward with the attempt nominate him by phone vote before the convention. Once the DNC said they were going forward with that vote, these steady stream of leaks came out.

They wanted/want Biden to make this his decision. The most palatable way for this to happen is for him to seemingly come to the conclusion himself. But his people and his family are refusing to play along. Now the question is can leadership put enough pressure on him to change his mind, or do they have the guts to forcibly remove him. I don't know about the former, but I will guess the answer to the latter is no.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by Atocep

Some high ranking dems are apparently telling people they think Biden drops out this weekend.

He honestly should do it this evening and steal all the thunder from the RNC.

[cuervo72]

Originally Posted by Lathum

Covid is 4 years ago.

Yeah, that extra year vs Afghanistan makes all the difference.

[cuervo72]

I can see it now too from the media if he does drop out.

"This smacks of desperation from the Dems."

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by Atocep

Some high ranking dems are apparently telling people they think Biden drops out this weekend.

This NBC article makes it look pretty bleak.


https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/202...eps-rcna162494

"A sense of reality is beginning to wash over some of the president’s top campaign lieutenants, who have endured streams of phone calls from donors and one-time supporters flagging that they cannot back Biden.A person who spoke with a senior campaign official said a sense of a new reality has fallen over the campaign.
“They’re finally realizing; it’s a when, not if,” the person said."


It says fund raising has dried up to point that they only expect to raise 25% of their goal. Money usually makes things move.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by cuervo72

Now do Covid families. Or victims of mass shootings.

Dems stopped caring about those things in January 2021, so I'm not sure they'd get much traction on the issues.

The Afghanistan withdrawal was a good move and it is unfortunate that he is getting roasted for it. But maybe it's karma for other horrific acts he's committed that he is not being attacked for.

[larrymcg421]

I really hope they are not trying to delay so the DNC can select the nominee. There is no way that will go over well.

While there is no way to do a quick primary, released delegates selecting the nominee at least respects the primary process.

[Ksyrup]

Originally Posted by Lathum

Covid is 4 years ago.

I know this was in response to a completely different issue, but I'm quoting it just to say that I find it hilarious that some people are suggesting Biden's sudden Covid diagnosis is the precursor to an announcement he's stepping aside, to use it as an illness excuse.

If this was 2020, totally believable. But it's 2024 - people are treating Covid like the common cold these days. If Biden used a Covid diagnosis as his excuse to pull out of the presidential race, he might as well just say he fell off his bike and scraped his shin. They both heal up in about the same time.

Now, I guess if they make up some excuse like it's hit him so hard that he won't be able to effectively campaign for weeks, I guess that's plausible. But then... let's see the medical records, because it still seems far from likely. And, doesn't that imperil the rest of his current term if it's THAT bad?

[Jas_lov]

So if Biden steps aside does it just go to Harris or do others jump in? They could have a debate in early August I suppose. I'm assuming Biden endorses Harris. Not sure if a Harris-Shapiro ticket could win but at least it'd have a much better chance. Even in these bad Biden state polls Trump seems to only hit the mid 40s.

[Ksyrup]

Is Shapiro or Beshear or any other currently elected officials going to resign to run for VP in this race? I assume most of these states have similar laws that require someone to resign their current state position to run for another office?

I feel like this is that old Greg Giraldo joke - in this economy? You want me to resign as governor of my state to be Harris's VP in this race?

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Jas_lov

So if Biden steps aside does it just go to Harris or do others jump in? They could have a debate in early August I suppose. I'm assuming Biden endorses Harris. Not sure if a Harris-Shapiro ticket could win but at least it'd have a much better chance. Even in these bad Biden state polls Trump seems to only hit the mid 40s.

I believe only Harris can access the war chest. I find it hard to believe anyone else could start from square one fundraising at this point.

[larrymcg421]

Others could step in, but I doubt anyone high profile will because:

1) They probably view this as a lost cause. Harris losing will clear the field for 2028.

2) The one thing Biden's campaign has done well is fundraising. Harris can access those funds, while others cannot. Anyone else will need to figure out fundraising from scratch.

[Lathum]

538 still has it as a toss up. Problem is Biden is going to continue to deteriorate.

Who Is Favored To Win The 2024 Presidential Election? | FiveThirtyEight

[Ksyrup]

So many things are going so well for the GOP right now - with the media coverage, polls, etc., backing it up - that, whether it's Biden or Harris or whomever, if Trump DOESN'T win, J6 is going to look like an elementary school food fight by comparison, I fear.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

Is Shapiro or Beshear or any other currently elected officials going to resign to run for VP in this race? I assume most of these states have similar laws that require someone to resign their current state position to run for another office?

I feel like this is that old Greg Giraldo joke - in this economy? You want me to resign as governor of my state to be Harris's VP in this race?

I only see five states with a law like that.

Resign-to-run law - Ballotpedia.

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by larrymcg421

Others could step in, but I doubt anyone high profile will because:

1) They probably view this as a lost cause. Harris losing will clear the field for 2028.

2) The one thing Biden's campaign has done well is fundraising. Harris can access those funds, while others cannot. Anyone else will need to figure out fundraising from scratch.

It will almost definitely be Kamala. I do wonder if someone might throw their hat in the ring. It most likely won't be someone like Newsome or Beashar. It will probably someone along the line of Dean Phillips, who will be pretty easily swatted away.

[thesloppy]

A buddy of mine said Biden should drop out then run 3rd party

[Danny]

It has to be Harris at this point. A strong VP pick could at least give her a chance. Shed need some things to break correctly over the next few months as so far everything has broken for trump. But I do think she (or anyone else really) will at least give dems a feeling there is a chance (where there is none now.

[Danny]

Harris also has nothing to lose. She wont win the party nomination in 2028 coming off a loss with Biden so its now or never for her.

[RainMaker]

Newsome is going to try to get in. Not sure how he'd fare in the states that are most important (Midwest, Rust Belt). But he's charismatic and youthful. Shapiro would win the election I feel pretty easily. Pretty confident about Whitmer too, especially if she can turn it into a race about abortion rights. And I'd bet on Beasher since he's a boring moderate and that's probably enough for some people.

Kamala being the candidate is likely the choice just because Dems are dumb. I'd give her a better shot than Biden just because she can actually talk. Her VP would be interesting because I don't know if someone like Shapiro or Whitmer would want to be in that spot since they'll be frontrunners in 2028. Roy Cooper from NC (who is term limited now) or Tim Walz would be safe options as a VP.

[cuervo72]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

So many things are going so well for the GOP right now - with the media coverage, polls, etc., backing it up - that, whether it's Biden or Harris or whomever, if Trump DOESN'T win, J6 is going to look like an elementary school food fight by comparison, I fear.

Democracy is going to end in America b/c cable news needed to goose ratings. 🙃 pic.twitter.com/4Ed3McyGWC

— scary lawyerguy (@scarylawyerguy) July 18, 2024

At least they won't let it be a runaway. No way the media goes with a narrative in July that it is decided when they still have Aug, Sept, Oct, Nov to fill time.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Danny

It has to be Harris at this point. A strong VP pick could at least give her a chance. Shed need some things to break correctly over the next few months as so far everything has broken for trump. But I do think she (or anyone else really) will at least give dems a feeling there is a chance (where there is none now.

I don't think she would need all that much. She obviously would need to avoid a "deplorables" moment but people are begging for a candidate they can vote for and the contrast between her and Trump would be stark.

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

Newsome is going to try to get in. Not sure how he'd fare in the states that are most important (Midwest, Rust Belt). But he's charismatic and youthful. Shapiro would win the election I feel pretty easily. Pretty confident about Whitmer too, especially if she can turn it into a race about abortion rights. And I'd bet on Beasher since he's a boring moderate and that's probably enough for some people.

Kamala being the candidate is likely the choice just because Dems are dumb. I'd give her a better shot than Biden just because she can actually talk. Her VP would be interesting because I don't know if someone like Shapiro or Whitmer would want to be in that spot since they'll be frontrunners in 2028. Roy Cooper from NC (who is term limited now) or Tim Walz would be safe options as a VP.

You say that, but I don't think Newsome would be interested in getting the nomination this way. Anyone but Harris comes in handicapped (the aforementioned fundraising) and as basically a spit in the eye to Black voters who are the most important voting block in the party. It is not "dumb" to not want to piss off the block of people you couldn't win a single election without.

[thesloppy]

Lots of people have been hyping that video where Harris supposeldy smacks down JD Vance, but it seemed uninspiring and entirely unremarkable to me.

..but I suppose that's typical for political news. "Congressman X BRUTALLY ROASTS Congressman Y" then you read it and the rosting was something like "I disagree"

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by cuervo72

At least they won't let it be a runaway. No way the media goes with a narrative in July that it is decided when they still have Aug, Sept, Oct, Nov to fill time.

Think it has more to do with Democrats running an unpopular 81 year old candidate with dementia. If your election hopes hinge on what CNN will say about you, I think you're running a bad campaign.


Dems won't succeed till they drop all the excuses every time they lose.

[Danny]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

You say that, but I don't think Newsome would be interested in getting the nomination this way. Anyone but Harris comes in handicapped (the aforementioned fundraising) and as basically a spit in the eye to Black voters who are the most important voting block in the party. It is not "dumb" to not want to piss off the block of people you couldn't win a single election without.

I agree. I think you need a VP that has strong appeal along what Rainmaker is mentioning but I think you have to go Harris at this point.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

You say that, but I don't think Newsome would be interested in getting the nomination this way. Anyone but Harris comes in handicapped (the aforementioned fundraising) and as basically a spit in the eye to Black voters who are the most important voting block in the party. It is not "dumb" to not want to piss off the block of people you couldn't win a single election without.

The money thing isn't an issue. They can just transfer it to the DNC.

I also don't know how popular Kamala is in the community. She was polling so poorly in the primaries that she dropped out early. So it seems like a small percent if that. And there are white candidates in all those swing states who are just torching Republicans.

Dems should run the candidate who polls the best and has the best track to win the election. Nothing else matters.

[Ksyrup]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

I only see five states with a law like that.

Resign-to-run law - Ballotpedia.

Interesting. I thought way more states had those laws than actually do. Of course, I went to law school and worked in government in FL, so I guess my perception is skewed. As far as Beshear, I might have confused this issue with him categorically stating that he would be governor through his term (a self-imposed "no resignation").

[Vegas Vic]

Originally Posted by Lathum

538 still has it as a toss up.

That's surprising. Biden is trailing in the national polls by about 3 points now. To put that in perspective, on this date in 2016 Hillary had a 3 point lead, and on this date in 2020 Biden had a 9 point lead. So he's underperforming his 2020 status by about 12 points right now. If that trend holds, it translates into an electoral college landslide for Trump.

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

Dems should run the candidate who polls the best and has the best track to win the election. Nothing else matters.

Then it would still be Harris. She also wins the polls of who Democrats want to replace Biden with. Newsom is not that popular.

[Danny]

Newsom is indeed not that popular. Very smart and a good talker but comes across as slimy.

[Kodos]

Yeah, I wouldn't want him to be the replacement. Someone more centrist to appeal to voters who don't like Biden or Trump and who just want a reasonable, qualified candidate.

[GrantDawg]

Harris didn't have a great campaign in 2020. She was a front runner for about half a second, then her campaign made some blunders. Hopefully she learned from that. There is hardly anybody that doesn't fail in their first Presidential nomination run, so it is not the most disqualifying. What hurt her most was people wanted something close to a sure thing, and Biden was that. Now that she has been VP for 4 years, that should close that gap. I do worry that can she come off as off-putting sometimes.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Vegas Vic

That's surprising. Biden is trailing in the national polls by about 3 points now. To put that in perspective, on this date in 2016 Hillary had a 3 point lead, and on this date in 2020 Biden had a 9 point lead. So he's underperforming his 2020 status by about 12 points right now. If that trend holds, it translates into an electoral college landslide for Trump.

Yeah, I was surprised by that also.

Kind of a BS process when one side has to get 3-4% more of the vote total to win

[Vegas Vic]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

Then it would still be Harris. She also wins the polls of who Democrats want to replace Biden with. Newsom is not that popular.

Must be a different group of Democrats than the ones who gave Harris single-digit support in the 2020 primary, forcing her to drop out after falling to eighth place.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Kodos

Yeah, I wouldn't want him to be the replacement. Someone more centrist to appeal to voters who don't like Biden or Trump and who just want a reasonable, qualified candidate.

Mark Kelly would be a dream

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by Vegas Vic

Must be a different group of Democrats than the ones who gave Harris single-digit support in the 2020 primary, forcing her to drop out after falling to eighth place.

If you haven't noticed, it 4 years later. Peoples opinions change, as well as the situation. She was not the sitting Vice President 4 years ago, and was relatively unknown outside of California going into the race.

[Brian Swartz]

Originally Posted by Vegas Vic

That's surprising. Biden is trailing in the national polls by about 3 points now. To put that in perspective, on this date in 2016 Hillary had a 3 point lead, and on this date in 2020 Biden had a 9 point lead. So he's underperforming his 2020 status by about 12 points right now. If that trend holds, it translates into an electoral college landslide for Trump

They're actually leaning more in Biden's favor; about a week ago they had it ever so slightly favoring Trump, and now it's been about 53-54% Biden. On the national polls ... are you looking at different data than I am? There's a lot of Trump +1 or +2 numbers out there.

As I mentioned further up in the thread, 538 is expecting the polls to slide some Biden's way though based on the 'fundamentals', i.e. super-low unemployment, incumbent bias, etc. You don't typically get very far saying 538 is wrong but I don't buy it in this case. I do think the consensus in this thread that Trump is way ahead is just ... not borne out, but 538 is also saying Biden has a 60% chance of winning Michigan with all of the high-quality polls favoring Trump by about 3 (a couple of lower-quality ones notably say Biden is ahead), they've got Biden 53-47 in Pennsylvania despite every poll in the last month favoring Trump and most by 3-5 points ... so right now I'm just not buying their explanations.

[Brian Swartz]

Just to add to that, a curious breakdown they have, this one on Pennsylvania. Predicted margin by:

- Polling average: R +3.6
- Adjusted polling average: R +3.9; adjusted for 'similar states' and 'conventions'
- Forecast of Election day polling: R +3.9
- Fundamentals only: D +1.0
- Full Forecast: D +0.6

Full forecast also includes some adjustment for the possibility polls are systematically off for one candidate. But it looks to me like they are basically saying the polls don't matter much and the 'fundamentals' will determine the next president. I just ... I think they're missing the forest for the trees.

[Lathum]

Weird.

My wife is at Newark Airport and said Trumps plane is there

[Swaggs]

I think Tim Ryan of Ohio, who was a US rep and had a close loss to Vance in the 2022 senate race would be a solid choice. Good with unions, another pro-choice Catholic (like Biden), and a centrist from the rust belt. Plus, he’s available. 51 years old.

[Swaggs]

For VP with Harris, I mean.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by Brian Swartz

They're actually leaning more in Biden's favor; about a week ago they had it ever so slightly favoring Trump, and now it's been about 53-54% Biden. On the national polls ... are you looking at different data than I am? There's a lot of Trump +1 or +2 numbers out there.

As I mentioned further up in the thread, 538 is expecting the polls to slide some Biden's way though based on the 'fundamentals', i.e. super-low unemployment, incumbent bias, etc. You don't typically get very far saying 538 is wrong but I don't buy it in this case. I do think the consensus in this thread that Trump is way ahead is just ... not borne out, but 538 is also saying Biden has a 60% chance of winning Michigan with all of the high-quality polls favoring Trump by about 3 (a couple of lower-quality ones notably say Biden is ahead), they've got Biden 53-47 in Pennsylvania despite every poll in the last month favoring Trump and most by 3-5 points ... so right now I'm just not buying their explanations.

538 no longer has Nate Silver and got rid of most of their staff. It's the guy from the Economist who now runs the models and he's not a statistician. Silver and him have a running feud because the new guy doesn't really believe all that much in polls.

[thesloppy]

Apparently Jamie Raskin has been pressuring Biden too. At this point it really seems inevitable and every day he waits is time lost.

[Lathum]

I didn't hear it live but just heard that in his interview with BET he forgot Lloyd Austins name. Thats pretty bad.