08-14-2011, 09:59 PM | #1751 | |
General Manager
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Chicago
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Quote:
No mention of Autumn - plays into my suspicions of Autumn + Mau both being wolves. I'm not going to go too far down the "grand unified theory of wolves" path, but I really want to see one or both of these guys on the block on Monday. |
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08-14-2011, 10:04 PM | #1752 | |
General Manager
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Chicago
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Quote:
The plethora of smiley posts, the immediate reveal of getting the sword ... just pure vibe here, but it felt like Telle was a villager rather than a (secretly) gloating wolf in this spot. Again, would be interested in getting feedback from those who were around at the time rather than me working through this 48 hours later. |
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08-14-2011, 10:19 PM | #1753 | |
Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Syracuse, NY
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Quote:
I've long since had a ticket on this train. I think a telle-bug-autumn showdown for lynch would be a good idea. Not trying to dictate or tell people how to vote per se but my $0.50 |
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08-14-2011, 10:20 PM | #1754 | |
Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Syracuse, NY
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Quote:
Why I'm voting her isn't so much of a "how she's playing" kinda thing, it's more of a "the most likely scenario" kinda thing combined with , now, the action that surrounded her last lynch. |
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08-14-2011, 11:09 PM | #1755 |
Head Coach
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Bath, ME
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I'm not sure on Telle, but I suspect she's a villager, in which case I can definitively say that you can have a lot of vote movement even in a three villager runoff. I can understand why the village would assume that's not the case, which is unfortunate and proof of why this is a tough game to win, in general. I know I moved my vote around a lot, because I didn't have any real suspicion of either of my running mates. i think none of us were really suspicious of any of the others, which made for a lot of vote movement trying to decide how to get out of that situation.
I'm sure there won't be any real clarity until you guys lynch both Telle and I, so ti's probably just counter productive to argue all that much. Assuming we have no seer, no one's going to come to save me. I think anyone looking back through my posts will find as many things in my favor as a villager as against, just as I have with Telle. I feel like I was pivotal in getting Danny lynched at a point when he was likely to get away with another day, just the point where wolves would have backed off and seen if they could ride this one out. As usual, those who do less scoot by easier in this game. So even if you're convinced it's gotta be me or Telle to vote out this day, start in putting some pressure on whoever's next, because you're going to need the evidence to catch another wolf, I don't expect that chasing the two of us is going to get you anywhere. |
08-15-2011, 05:28 AM | #1756 | |
General Manager
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Chicago
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Quote:
Out of curiosity, why Chubby at the end of Day 1? He didn't come out with his "I trust J23" thing until right at the deadline if memory serves me correctly. I'm sure there is the "why any player" on Day 1, but the elevated trust levels for Chubby (in my head, at least) started with Day 2. |
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08-15-2011, 05:42 AM | #1757 | |
Coordinator
Join Date: Jan 2001
Location: Not too far away
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Quote:
I'd love to hear some responses to this question since it struck me as strange at the time. |
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08-15-2011, 05:46 AM | #1758 | |
Coordinator
Join Date: Jan 2001
Location: Not too far away
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Quote:
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08-15-2011, 05:46 AM | #1759 |
Coordinator
Join Date: Jan 2001
Location: Not too far away
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Do we have a vote count to start the day with?
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08-15-2011, 06:49 AM | #1760 |
Pro Rookie
Join Date: Jan 2006
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Narcizo 1 - EagleFan 1692,
Telle 2 - Lathum 1706, Chubby 1717, Zinto 1 - Autumn 1718 Is all I can find. |
08-15-2011, 06:52 AM | #1761 |
Coordinator
Join Date: Jan 2001
Location: Not too far away
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Among the people who have been discussed I am inclined to vote for either Autumn or Zinto. Since I moved off Autumn more because I thought Telle was more guilty than Autumn was innocent
Vote Autumn |
08-15-2011, 06:53 AM | #1762 | |
Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: Murfreesboro, TN
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Quote:
I unvoted Autumn at the time. He had lost all momentum at that time. Did you miss my post before all that, too before you left? I had one directed towards you. |
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08-15-2011, 06:56 AM | #1763 |
Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: Murfreesboro, TN
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I'd like to see zinto and narcizo up there today. With narcizo doing the bulk of the analysis and being ignored for the most part as a candidate I'd like to see what happens there. And then for zinto, his votes always seemed to have a too little too late feeling.
Narcizo not being able to be a part of the action towards the end of the day really hurts us to be able to get a good read on him. |
08-15-2011, 07:00 AM | #1764 | |
Coordinator
Join Date: Jan 2001
Location: Not too far away
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Quote:
I will say that if you want to see someone receive attention a good way to make that happen is to vote for them... |
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08-15-2011, 07:02 AM | #1765 | |
Coordinator
Join Date: Jan 2001
Location: Not too far away
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Quote:
To elaborate on this point I don't think it's good in any individual game (analysis is how villagers win) and I don't think it's good for the game in the long run to discourage people from putting ideas out there. |
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08-15-2011, 07:07 AM | #1766 | |
Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: Murfreesboro, TN
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Quote:
yeah, I planned on putting in a vote today before I go to work this time instead of waiting until the end. Then I'll just change it later if need be. |
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08-15-2011, 07:08 AM | #1767 |
Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: Murfreesboro, TN
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Didn't even see the vote on Narcizo to be honest.
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08-15-2011, 07:10 AM | #1768 |
Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: Murfreesboro, TN
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vote zinto
I will try being around more today but my days are always unpredictable. |
08-15-2011, 07:27 AM | #1769 |
Pro Rookie
Join Date: Jan 2006
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Whatever the story is with the hammer I think Autumn makes a good point. We don't know enough about the mechanics of the fake hammer to make any assumptions about it. Including the assumption that revealing possession of it is a sign of the player being more deserving trust. Yet that's an assumption he seems happier to make. But we don't know if the specifics of the fake hammer requires a wolf to claim possession of it. With that in mind I can't see past both Telle and Autumn being wolves and I wouldn't be surprised if mau was one as well. But for now I'll stick with Telle.
Vote Telle Coming back to day three the players with the worst votes are Autumn, Bug and Telle. Bug has admitted to having the mistletoe twice when he didn't need to which is enough to get him some trust. Telle also laid votes on two players you wouldn't normally expect to get many votes on day one and I find it hard to believe that she voted Danny because he gave her a hard time about voting Autumn. Seems a bit convenient when we know that Danny is a wolf. Almost as though Danny was giving her an excuse to vote for him. |
08-15-2011, 07:30 AM | #1770 |
Pro Rookie
Join Date: Jan 2006
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08-15-2011, 07:41 AM | #1771 |
Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: Murfreesboro, TN
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A read on when votes are changing and to see if you'd change your vote around, etc. You've answered all my questions when I've asked them, that's not the problem. I need some in-game action in the bottom of the ninth from you to read you a little better. |
08-15-2011, 07:45 AM | #1772 |
Pro Rookie
Join Date: Jan 2006
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Ok.
Day One - Vote to protect Danny. Don't think Chubby is a baddy either - probably wind up voting EagleFan Day Two - Switch to Danny around the time Autumn tells everyone to get their vote on Danny or Chubby Day Three - Keep my vote where it is. Oh yes! Day Four - Switch to Telle. Honest. |
08-15-2011, 07:48 AM | #1773 |
Pro Rookie
Join Date: Jan 2006
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I know it isn't the same thing. If you think it's frustrating when you're trying to get a read on me, imagine how it feels for me. Particularly in the Jungle Book game when my first two scans were pretty much redundant at the time I made them.
Looking back I don't actually think Zinto is such a bad choice after all. So I take back the stuff about Autumn tying himself in knots trying to protect Telle. I still think they're both big, fat wolves but I'm nothing like as sure as I was over the weekend. |
08-15-2011, 07:54 AM | #1774 |
Pro Rookie
Join Date: Jan 2006
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Narcizo 1 - EagleFan 1692,
Telle 3 - Lathum 1706, Chubby 1717, Narcizo 1769 Zinto 2 - Autumn 1718, mauboy 1768 Autumn 1 - Barkeep 1761 |
08-15-2011, 07:56 AM | #1775 |
Pro Rookie
Join Date: Jan 2006
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Hmmm.. Do we actually know what going to Valhalla entails? And does Thomkal realise that he's gone there, whatever that means?
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08-15-2011, 08:17 AM | #1776 |
Coordinator
Join Date: Jan 2001
Location: Not too far away
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I don't think we do know, but I have a feeling people in Valhalla are still out of the game, but perhaps matter for some sort of final showdown which we don't how it is triggered.
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08-15-2011, 08:28 AM | #1777 |
Head Coach
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Bath, ME
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WE don't know anything about Valhalla. I would guess that there is a Ragnarok mechanic in the game. It sounded from the rules like there was a possibility that something (someone) could trigger ragnarok, in which case I would guess that the number of souls in Valhalla would be important for us in some way.
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08-15-2011, 08:29 AM | #1778 |
Head Coach
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Bath, ME
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08-15-2011, 08:30 AM | #1779 | |
Head Coach
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Bath, ME
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Quote:
So you feel better about Telle now than you did on Friday? Or worse about me and Zinto? |
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08-15-2011, 08:55 AM | #1780 | |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: Mays Landing, NJ USA
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Quote:
I was getting a villager vibe from him. Though I was starting to wonder after the deadline passed if I made the right move. Nothing more than a hunch to be honest. |
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08-15-2011, 08:59 AM | #1781 |
Pro Rookie
Join Date: Jan 2006
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I was wondering when you would break that out. I thought Valhalla would enable us to post in the thread even when we're dead because I thought JAG was talking about that in some thread or other were people were discussing how to keep games active. Might have completely imagined the entire scenario though. |
08-15-2011, 09:00 AM | #1782 |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: Mays Landing, NJ USA
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dola: One thing that is bugging me now (after thinking about my actions on day one) is the whole Telle "I let it go random" approach.
I made sure to have a request, even to the point of asking for a conditional to get the item passed to someone so I would prevent it from going random (figured that way we could have a trail of where items were). Unfortunately it ended up going random based on the game mechanics. As much as the whole "why would she say anything" question I am now being bugged by the "why random" question. I still think signs point to villager because it would not seem to be a good play for a wolf to offer up this information. |
08-15-2011, 09:03 AM | #1783 |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: Mays Landing, NJ USA
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unvote Narcizo
vote Zinto No read on Z yet but wanting to keep it a race. Plus the Narc vote doesn;t seem to be getting legs (just afraid that he is playing the super helpful villager role as a wolf). |
08-15-2011, 09:03 AM | #1784 |
Pro Rookie
Join Date: Jan 2006
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08-15-2011, 09:14 AM | #1785 | |
Head Coach
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Bath, ME
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Quote:
If we ignored the whole thing about the hammer, her votes don't look good. Mine don't either, so I guess I have less impetus to assume those are wolf votes since it's clear to me how a villager could do the same. She and I both voted Lathum over Darth. I gave my reasoning at the time, I don't remember what hers was. Friday she clearly was going to go with whichever direction could get her unlynched, which is what i would expect wolf or villager. I don't have the earlier votes with me right now. I don't think she's a bad vote, based on record. Based on post contest I think she has some points in her favor, so I'd rather go for someone who has less in her favor. |
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08-15-2011, 09:14 AM | #1786 | |
Head Coach
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Bath, ME
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Quote:
I agree, at the time I was really suspicious that she would do that, it seemed a very odd move to send it random. But I'm not sure why a wolf would do that or claim to have one that. |
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08-15-2011, 09:18 AM | #1787 | |
Head Coach
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Bath, ME
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Quote:
That said, assuming that somehow she has to to say on day two that she passed an item randomly on night 1, as prerequisite for faking a hammer seems like quite a stretch. I can't go there, but I can agree that there might be some reason why it made sense for a wolf to do that which we don't understand, or it could just be a blunder as a wolf. Frankly, if choosing between Telle and I, I would probably choose me. I have about the same voting record, I think, and don't have any item evidence to make me look good at all. I think I was out there on Danny, but that can be waved away as helping bury a dead wolf. I pushed Darth into the vote at times, but didn't end up voting him, so that negates that. |
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08-15-2011, 09:20 AM | #1788 |
Head Coach
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Bath, ME
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My worry though, knowing that I'm good and suspecting Telle is good, is that we're going to waste several days with non-productive discussion. So I'm glad to see people addressing other candidates, even if you end up going with me. This would be a good time, if we're dealing with villager/villager, for wolves to fade into the woodwork and let other people hang themselves, so I think it's good to keep the pressure on people like Zinto, NTN, whoever else is being so quiet I'm forgetting about them.
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08-15-2011, 09:30 AM | #1789 |
Coordinator
Join Date: Jan 2001
Location: Not too far away
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Better about telle, the same about you, and worse about Zinto. I knew Telle's poor voting record, but I think the whole item thing makes her less likely, rather than more likely as I had previously, to be a wolf.
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08-15-2011, 09:31 AM | #1790 | |
Coordinator
Join Date: Jan 2001
Location: Not too far away
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Quote:
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08-15-2011, 09:42 AM | #1791 | |
College Starter
Join Date: Feb 2004
Location: Buffalo, NY
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Quote:
Oh look, once again Narcizo states as fact that I passed him the hammer, when we don't at all know that. Corrected: Thor's Hammer - Telle >> ?? >> ?? >> ?? Thor's Hammer - ?? >> Narcizo >> Hoops >> Chubby (Fake) disappeared Thor's Hammer - ?? >> ?? >> ?? (DV?) >> Racer >> Chubby |
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08-15-2011, 09:46 AM | #1792 | |
College Starter
Join Date: Feb 2004
Location: Buffalo, NY
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Quote:
I don't think Autumn sticks his neck out like that for me if he's a wolf. He'd just let me go down in flames while he fades to the background. I think it's way too risky of a move for a wolf to try to gain trust by showing trust of a villager in that way. And if we were both wolves, I think it's still rather risky for him, and the more likely play would be to pile on and thus gain trust for himself. |
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08-15-2011, 09:48 AM | #1793 | |
Head Coach
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Bath, ME
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Quote:
Oh, we're not in bad shape, true. But if we spend two days lynching villagers, in particular two days lynching villagers that the village is already decided about, taht's two days of very little useful vote history, possibly four villagers dead total, and no new leads on wolves at the end of it. That's what I worry about. |
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08-15-2011, 11:16 AM | #1794 | |
College Starter
Join Date: Jan 2011
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Quote:
I voted Barkeep in that situation because I did not have a read on Darth. While I thought Barkeep could be a villager I deferred to people who have played with him in more than one game. It wasn't the best move and voting Darth in hindsight was the best move. |
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08-15-2011, 11:24 AM | #1795 |
Coordinator
Join Date: Jan 2001
Location: Not too far away
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Beyond Lathum, who only did it for self-preservation, the people who voted for me were all people, yourself included, who've played a handful of games, many of which have come since I stopped playing regularly.
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08-15-2011, 11:30 AM | #1796 | |
College Starter
Join Date: Jan 2011
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Quote:
I guess I made an assumption about that others would have played with you(most likely the dumbest thing I have done in a werewolf game) |
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08-15-2011, 12:02 PM | #1797 |
Head Coach
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Bath, ME
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What gets me, Zinto, isn't the vote, it's the flopping of the reasoning for your voting. Earlier you were voting NTN because you thought BK was a villager. Later you were voting BK because you thought he the most likely wolf. I'm not sure what would cause such a change other than the fact that it helped Darth out.
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08-15-2011, 12:16 PM | #1798 |
College Starter
Join Date: Jan 2011
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I am not sure why I changed my mind or how far I had to go to change it. I think I thought that Barkeep had a better chance to be a villager then NTN. I am constantly talking myself in and out of candidates and I guess for now on I shouldn't make statements declaring someone a villager unless I am sure of it.
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08-15-2011, 12:50 PM | #1799 |
College Benchwarmer
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Fort Wayne, Indiana
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Haven't read hardly any of the posts today but I decided to look at every player in the game (with the exception of EagleFan and Chubby). I relied heavily on Narcizo's vote history which can be found on page 34.
Definitely Good EagleFan – confirmed goodie myself - Almost Certainly Good Chubby – I would hope someone would have come out by now if he wasn’t really Thor. Leaning positive McKerney Negatives - Very quiet. 2nd to last in posts among alive players -Had a throw away vote on day one. Positives? - Would three wolves hide their votes on Chubby on day two? (He had four votes total) -Kept DV in it on day two by narrowing the vote to 5-3 (Lathum over DV) early in the day. -If Autumn is a wolf: Extended Autumn’s lead over Thomkal to 6-4 at 7:02 pm on day four. Narcizo Positives - Very helpful analysis putting the vote history thing together. Cast a vote very early in the day on day three against Darth Vilus. Negatives – Are there any, really? Zinto negatives - Throw away vote day one. -Very quiet, 3rd least post among living players. Positives - Reduced Chubby’s lead over Danny on day two to 5-4. -Extended DV’s lead over Lathum at 9:52 on day three to 9-7 (basically the clinching vote) Neutral Hoops Positives? -Has had multiple items including mistletoe. I think we should use caution on the mistletoe though as we don’t know the mechanics of it. Reading from the descriptions on the first page, it sounds like it needs to be weaponized. For all we know, the wolves have already weaponized it and are just holding onto it now. Neutral- Hoops has been helpful lately but in the games I’ve played in I remember Hoops and Chief Rum as being two particularly strong players. I think we would appear helpful whether he was a wolf or not. Negatives- Eaglefan voter on day one. Of the six voters, two confirmed villagers on EagleFan and one confirmed baddie. I think of Barkeep, Hoops, and Autumn, one is probably a wolf. MrBug708 – Positives - Has touched mistletoe twice. See Hoops though why we might not want to read to much into this. Neutral - Didn’t vote for Autumn or Thomkal on day four. Gave Telle a 2nd vote when Autumn had 6 votes and Thomkal had four votes at the time. Negatives - Throw away vote on day one -Late to the action on day two -Along with Telle and Autumn, did not vote for DV on two. Voted for Lathum instead. Telle Positives - As previously mentioned, Telle unvoted Autumn on day one and moved to Danny at 4:53 pm giving him two votes total (effectively keeping him in the race as EagleFan and Danny had three votes at the time). Also with one vote at the time were Thomkal, Zinto, ntndeacon, Lathum, and myself. That’s a lot of choices to give a second vote two and she chose a wolf. Neutral - Voted for Thomkal on day two but more of a self-defense vote then anything else. Negatives - As someone else pointed out, the whole thing with Danny on day one seems like it may have been contrived. Danny seemed like he was scolding her placing a single vote on Autumn which didn’t seem very serious. -Throw away vote on ntndeacon on day two. -Missed on DV on day two (voted for Lathum instead). Mauboy Positives - Tied Danny up with Chubby 5-5 on day two Negatives - On more then one occasion has been late to the action -One of four people to vote for Chubby on day one. Of those votes, one is a confirmed goodie and one a confirmed baddie. Barkeep Positive – Put Danny up 7 votes to 6 over Chubby on day 2 at 6:58 pm. -Put a 2nd vote on Darth Vilus on day three to reduce Lathum’s lead over him to 4 to 2. Ntndeacon also had 2 votes at the time. Negative – One of six people who voted for EagleFan day one. Two are confirmed goodies and one a confirmed baddie. That leaves Barkeep, Hoops, and Autumn. -I still view his discussion of where people stood with Danny on day two as something that could have easily been wolf vs. wolf. Lathum Negative -Voted for Chubby day one. There is one confirmed baddie and one confirmed goodie of the ones who voted for him. the other living player who voted for him is mauboy. Late to the action day two Neutral - his tantrum with Chubby. Self-defense move on day three reduced Barkeep’s total to four votes and gave DV 6 votes to Barkeep’s 5 votes. Feeling bad about Jeheinz Negatives – Has gotten a bit of a free pass in my opinion. I think people may have been a bit critical on day two that he was getting votes (he got up to three) because of his long absence. I’d have to look back to be sure though. I think it'd be good to look back and see why he fizzled out on day two and what people said about voting for him. -Day two and three throw away votes on ntndeacon. -Tied Thomkal up with Autumn three to three at 2:27 pm on day four. Positives – Gave Danny a 3rd vote on day one. At the time, Chubby and EagleFan each had 3 votes. ntndeacon Negatives - Throw away vote day one and day two -Voted for Lathum initially over DV. Extended Lathum’s lead to 4-2 over DV. -Very quiet since day one. Has fallen to last in post among living players. Neutral - Switched off Lathum onto DV to avoid a “tie”. Didn’t actually change things much. Instead of Barkeep and Lathum each having 5 votes, DV and Barkeep did instead. -Tied Autumn up with Thomkal 4-4 at 5:53 on day four. Autumn Negatives - Voted for Eagle Fan on day one. Of the six voters, two confirmed goodies and one confirmed baddie. -Had a very odd vote when he switches off of Barkeep onto Lathum late on day three after saying DV was his second choice most of the day. The vote reduce DV’s lead over Lathum to 8-7 at the time. Positives - Goes from wolf to wolf early (switches vote to Darth Vilus) in day two after Danny’s fake reveal. - Jumps on Danny fairly early on in the voting process on day two. |
08-15-2011, 12:52 PM | #1800 |
College Benchwarmer
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Fort Wayne, Indiana
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I'd like to see Jeheinz or Autumn today. Right now I'm leaning towards Autumn just because I think he would shed light on more players. So for now.....
Vote Autumn |
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