Werewolf LXXVI - The Werewolf Draft! Game over, see last pages for details

[GoldenEagle]

Originally Posted by oliegirl

Looking at Alan's recap, I seriously wonder why I am being pointed out...day 1 I voted for DT with NINE other people...day 2 I voted for EF, alone, instead of voting with the village for BK who turned out to be a villager. Today I voted for Saldana along with TEN other people. But yeah, I guess you are right...EVERYONE else that voted for those 2 are good and I am the wolf.

Whatever. Here are my picks for wolves:

GoldenEagle
Eagle Fan
Mccollins
*Telle

*I'm still on the fence with Telle...some moments I think she is a wolf, some moments I think she isn't. If I had to add a 4th, well I'm not sure who it would be at this point. But the other 3 are acting very suspiciously IMHO.

So pretty much anyone who brings any sort of heat on you, you think is a wolf?

But I thought you discovered some sort of PM mistake and that we (villagers) caught a break?

You are throwing as much crap against the wall as possible and hope some of it sticks.

[Mrs. Schmidty]

I'm not sure how much time I'm going to have in the morning before work so I'll make my vote now.

VOTE PASSCAGLIA

I admit there's not a heck of a lot to go on. The wolves may very well just be sneaking by under the radar, but of those that are speaking up Pass is grabbing my vote tonight.

[Mrs. Schmidty]

As of post 1752:

4 Oliegirl: GoldenEagle (1643), Danny (1646), EagleFan (1689), Render (1723),
2 Passacaglia: LoneStarGirl (1697), Mrs. Schmidty (1752)
1 GoldenEagle: Oliegirl (1647)
1 McCollins: Claphamsa (1713)
1 Claphamsa: Passacaglia (1726)

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Alan T

Since LSG is around and is never short of insults for me, I'll just post the updated running vote counts so far and then head out until tommorrow

Day 1

10 - DaddyTorgo - Lathum (339), LoneStarGirl (538), PackerFanatic (556), mccollins (605), claphamsa (946), SnDvls (659), Mrs. Schmidty (676), saldana (691), oliegirl (707), GoldenEagle (725)
7 - Lathum - DaddyTorgo (250), KWhit (278), Barkeep (283), RendeR (294), Danny (431), Telle (650), Passacaglia (745)
1 - Mrs. Schmidty - EagleFan (362)
1 - EagleFan - Schmidty (394)
1 - saldana - Chief Rum (594)
1 - Alan T - Alan T (778)


Day 2


7 - Barkeep49 - Lathum (1052), PackerFanatic (1068), oliegirl (1072), mccollins (1079), Telle (1080), Mrs. Schmidty (1118), Passacaglia (1215)
4 - Chief Rum - LoneStarGirl (939), RendeR (1038), saldana (1175), GoldenEagle (1210)
3 - EagleFan - Chief Rum (1000), SnDvls (1065), claphamsa (1084)
3 - Lathum - Danny (1015), Barkeep49 (1040), DaddyTorgo (1089)
1 - oliegirl - EagleFan (943)
1 - saldana - Alan T (1044)

no vote: Schmidty


Day 3

11 - saldana - claphamsa (1291), Mrs. Schmidty (1358), mccollins (1408), PackerFanatic (1417), Telle (1485), SnDvls (1506), RendeR (1526), oliegirl (1586), Passacaglia (1610), Schmidty (1615), Alan T (1621)
3 - Telle - GoldenEagle (1273), Chief Rum (1383), saldana (1591)
2 - Passacaglia - LoneStarGirl (1389), Lathum (1424)
2 - oliegirl - Danny (1282), EagleFan (1311)

Just for future information's sake.

People who have guaranteed voted for villagers all three days:

PackerFanatic
mccollins
Mrs. Schmidty
oliegirl
Telle
Passacaglia

Guaranteed voted for villagers two of the three days:

claphamsa
SnDvls
Render
Danny

Only one villager vote:

LSG
GoldenEagle
Schmidty* (did not vote Day Two)
Chief Rum

No confirmed villager votes:

EagleFan

COT

Alan T

Note: the order in which names are arranged does not constitute a trust/distrust list for me. I simply went through the Day One votes one live player at a time and put them under the appropriate category.

***

I present the above just for information's sake, but I do find it interesting that some of our most talked about targets (i.e. mccollins, oliegirl, Telle and Pass--pareticularly the last three) are also some our most certain villager killers. Now to point any definitive finger at them, you would be ignoring that others may have benefited simply from their vote targets not being dead yet, and also the possibility (no, probability) that the wolves have likely been trying to work at least one wolf vote into their voting records. So it would be silly to take this as meaning anything. But it's another evidentiary point to consider.

I even consider it interesting that EF has managed to vote for three players now whom are all alive and uncleared. He is the only player to have managed that.

Food for thought anyway.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by RendeR

I don't trust Alan, however he is the duke and everyone else basically is putting their faith in him. So I have a small CoT that I will continue to go with that is 3 people strong.

Alan, Telle, myself.

Why is Telle in your COT? Just a gut feeling? I gotta tell ya, she's pretty far from cleared in my mind. The logic that Lathum's death clears Telle is flawed for anyone who follows the breakdown (olie did a solid job of breaking it down a page or two back).

Pass is far from cleared as well (as you mention in this very quoted post, although I did not include it here), so I can't really give much credence right now to Mason talk from him with respect to olie.

The wolves may have known Lathum was the fake seer from a bad read on Telle--and killed him to get him out of the game before he could prove this further, and thus also continue to confuse the real seer, who likely also does not know if he/she is the real seer. Point being, Telle would be a wolf in that scenario--and Pass could be for the same reason. In fact, they could both be wolves.

[Schmidty]

I don't know who to vote for at all, and I'm afraid of getting yelled at like everyone else has been, so I'm stumped. This entire game has been a clusterfoook, and I know that I haven't done anything to help that fact.

I'm going to go with someone UTR for now:

Vote mccollins

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by RendeR

Just to reiterate, I do not defend telle due to our marital status, she's a damned fine player all by herself, better than I am in most respects because she's got a more even temper. Please don't insinuate that I would defend her on that basis, it would be unethical to do so in game and would be detrimental to the village as a whole if I did so.

That said, I did defend her in this situation for a couple reasons. One was lathum's scan. I trusted it at the time. I can't verify it obviously, but I don't see a reason to lynch someone with a positive scan on them until other options that appear much more suspicious get dealt with.

Secondly the reasons people gave to get the run on Telle started were totally innacurate. The logic was faulty. So there was no real validation for voting for her.

Just quoting to show you I saw this after posting above. And if this is the case, I don't understand why you don't have Pass in COT.

Plus, I have said it before, I'll say it again. Barking up the suspicious Alan tree is a lost cause. You want us to put Alan back on the uncleared list, because an action alone is not a confirmation of innocence?

Okay, I can see that logic out of context. However, within this game, we have an established rule set that shows us the existence of the Duke. Alan has claimed this role from Day One, and even performed an action to prove it. No one has come out against this. Do you think there's a real Duke out there that has let this go on? The real Duke wouldn't even need to come out. He could just lynch Alan himself, and, tada, wolf dead.

But this hasn't happened. Ergo, Alan is definitely the Duke. Hell, I won't even discuss that.

So then these victory condition issues are set out. Except this is a drafted game with two sides, and two GMs who picked those sides. The rule set sets this out and clearly places the Duke under the villagers. There is no role mentioned among the wolves that would seem to have anything resembling similar powers. So, this proves to me that the Duke is on the side of the village and wins with the village.

Transitive theorem (IIRC) states (given, A=B and B=C) thus (A=C). The Duke a villager. Alan is the Duke. Alan is a villager.

Can his ideas be flawed? Heck yeah. Even Alan will admit that. Like you, I, too, don't like when he goes all secret agent on us, especially this far into a game like this, where we desperately need a wolf to start to turn this thing around. Sometimes I can why he does things, but sometimes he does go too undercover and expect us to make connections he is making, or trust him on faith. And we can't do that.

But he is a good guy, and your harping on him and hinting that he is not so clear doesn't make me suspect him, it makes me suspect you. What would wolves want us to do? Waste time killing villagers, of course. I don't see any good coming from doubting Alan's side or victory conditions, not right now, not without something a hell of a lot more than has happened so far.

Telle is not cleared just because Lathum scanned her. I already showed this. Pass is not cleared because Alan said nice things about him (which he himself said was no proof of innocence either). I am not cleared. You are not cleared.

So this arguing with/casting suspicions at anyone who votes Telle is not only not productive, it could very well be leading us away from a candidate who could prove Lathum was fake--or hint that he was real. And there is significant value in that right now.

Pass represents the same possibility, and he already has a couple votes, so that is where I am going with my vote (as I won't be around tomorrow, as usual). But this clearing of Telle, and this suspicion of Alan, is just crazy. We don't have the evidence to support either. And arguing for either without more information will only continually lead us down this circular path where we get nowhere while wolves pick us off one by one.

VOTE PASSACAGLIA

[LoneStarGirl]

Originally Posted by GoldenEagle

Gee, thanks, wife. See if I take you to New York now.

I misread the question! I didn't mean to hurt your or Olie's feelings, I promise

[LoneStarGirl]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

Just for future information's sake.

People who have guaranteed voted for villagers all three days:

PackerFanatic
mccollins
Mrs. Schmidty
oliegirl
Telle
Passacaglia

So do you think these are the people we need to look at? Because I sure do! We should limit the voting for 2 of them a day and focus on them, hopefully one of them will talk.

I think todays vote should be Pass VS Oliegirl

Just my 2 cents

[mccollins]

Originally Posted by Schmidty

I'm going to go with someone UTR for now:

Vote mccollins

So, 5th most posts in the thread isn't enough I guess.

Lathum - 179
Passacaglia - 178
Alan T - 174
DaddyTorgo - 108
mccollins - 97
oliegirl - 80

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

Why is Telle in your COT? Just a gut feeling? I gotta tell ya, she's pretty far from cleared in my mind. The logic that Lathum's death clears Telle is flawed for anyone who follows the breakdown (olie did a solid job of breaking it down a page or two back).

Pass is far from cleared as well (as you mention in this very quoted post, although I did not include it here), so I can't really give much credence right now to Mason talk from him with respect to olie.

The wolves may have known Lathum was the fake seer from a bad read on Telle--and killed him to get him out of the game before he could prove this further, and thus also continue to confuse the real seer, who likely also does not know if he/she is the real seer. Point being, Telle would be a wolf in that scenario--and Pass could be for the same reason. In fact, they could both be wolves.

CR, the paragraph that starts with my name confuses me. My only Mason talk was a hunch that RendeR and Telle are Masons. I'm not saying I'm a Mason -- revealing that is against the rules.

[Telle]

oliegirl's been pinging my radar pretty hard, and appears she has been for others too. So I'm going to go in that direction today.

VOTE OLIEGIRL

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by LoneStarGirl

So do you think these are the people we need to look at? Because I sure do! We should limit the voting for 2 of them a day and focus on them, hopefully one of them will talk.

I think todays vote should be Pass VS Oliegirl

Just my 2 cents

Not comfy with mickey c getting votes?

UNVOTE CLAPHAMSA
VOTE MCCOLLINS

[Schmidty]

Originally Posted by mccollins

So, 5th most posts in the thread isn't enough I guess.

Lathum - 179
Passacaglia - 178
Alan T - 174
DaddyTorgo - 108
mccollins - 97
oliegirl - 80

Good point.

I just don't know who to vote for, so I'm going to stick with you for now.

[PackerFanatic]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

Just for future information's sake.

People who have guaranteed voted for villagers all three days:

PackerFanatic
mccollins
Mrs. Schmidty
oliegirl
Telle
Passacaglia

That looks bad on my part.

I am leaning toward oliegirl for my vote this round. I will be around to vote later though.

[PackerFanatic]

Originally Posted by PackerFanatic

That looks bad on my part.

I am leaning toward oliegirl for my vote this round. I will be around to vote later though.

dola - I suck at voting, heh.

[st.cronin]

I have cleared out space in my pm box, apologies if anybody was trying to pm me. In the future, if my box is full, you can use my gmail account, which is st.cronin@.

[RendeR]

CHIEF: I am with you on the breakdown of most of what you posted in response to me above. I trust Telle at the most basic level because Lathum trusted her. Read his posts. He was a comfirmed villager, regardless of role. I get a good vibe from her also. Call it gut instinct, call it precognition if you want. I know she's good this game but I certainly don't expect people to just take my word.

Alan is pretty obviously the duke as you so plainly showed, its not his allegience that I keep suspecting so much as his motives, but after his explanations I think he was just being WAY too cloak n dagger and it blew up in his face.

Any CoT has to start somewhere, for me I'm confident that I have a good starting point with Telle and Alan and myself of course. Again there is nothing concrete beyond Lathum's faith in Telle prior to his death and my own belief that she is on the villager's side in this one.

Just clarifying my position a bit.

I'm on Oliegirl now, but I certainly see the case for both Pass and McCollins as well and I do love a three horse race. Let's see how this all falls out.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by RendeR

I trust Telle at the most basic level because Lathum trusted her. Read his posts. He was a comfirmed villager, regardless of role.

Cool. So you trust me equally, right? After all, Alan is a confirmed villager, and he trusts me.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by PackerFanatic

dola - I suck at voting, heh.

I think I know what you mean. Sometimes I'll feel like I've played a great villager game, until I realize that I never had any clue who the wolves are.

[st.cronin]

4 Oliegirl: GoldenEagle (1643), Danny (1646), EagleFan (1689), Render (1723), Telle (1762)
3 McCollins: Claphamsa (1713), Schmidty (1756), Passacaglia (1763)
3 Passacaglia: LoneStarGirl (1697), Mrs. Schmidty (1752), Chief Rum (1757)
1 GoldenEagle: Oliegirl (1647)

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

Cool. So you trust me equally, right? After all, Alan is a confirmed villager, and he trusts me.

Just because I'm not posting or really participating at all in the discussion anymore means that you should put words in my mouth. I'm not dead yet. Not sure where the below posts indicate that I trust you.

Originally Posted by Alan T

For now I don't think Lathum's death should clear Pass or Telle until we figure out the seer/fake seer thing, but it doesn't seem like it makes any sense to go after either of them just yet in the 50% chance that Lathum was the real seer.

Originally Posted by Alan T

No, I'm not vouching for Pass. you can read my last post I made about my thoughts on Pass. I said that because Lathum did scan him, he doesn't seem like a logical lynch choice today at least barring further information.. but I don't think anyone should put him on their cleared list yet until we know for sure which seer Lathum was.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by Alan T

Just because I'm not posting or really participating at all in the discussion anymore means that you should put words in my mouth. I'm not dead yet. Not sure where the below posts indicate that I trust you.

I didn't mean to say you were vouching for me -- I just feel like we've been on the same wavelength most of the game. I was going based on your actions yesterday -- I didn't see anything super-secret about it, I just thought that you saw where I was coming from then when you said you weren't planning to vote for me.

[Passacaglia]

My intent was simply to draw a comparison between Lathum's trust for Telle, and your trust for me. Lathum scanned Telle, but he didn't know if he was the real seer or not, so any trust he had was based on his own thoughts -- note that RendeR argues that Lathum was "a confirmed villager, regardless of role." By the same token, you're a confirmed villager (or at least in RendeR's COT), and you seemed to have some trust for me (at least you did on Friday -- if something has changed since then, please let me know).

My post was kind of tongue-in-cheek, because a) I don't really expect RendeR to change his mind about me, and b) I think RendeR just threw up a bunch of crap to cover up that he and Telle are Masons.

[PackerFanatic]

Okay, I have to ask because it is bugging the hell outta me - what does CoT and CoD stand for?

[Danny]

Circle of trust and Circle of distrust

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by Danny

Circle of trust and Circle of distrust

Yeah, sorry about that.

[EagleFan]

I feel certain that oliegirl and mccollins are wolves. I doubt that I am going to move my vote as I have been leaning towards her for several days but would consider a move to mccollins if that ends up being where we head (he was/is getting my vote tomorrow as I am not as forgiving about the PM mistake, much like oliegirl's vote mistake).

Either way I feel like we are finally getting a wolf. Maybe these next two days will get us back in the game.

I will try to get back online a little closer ot the deadline (if possible) but I am not certain with everything going on at work.

I think some wolves need to start posting in hoops' thread to gloat a bit... Come on, you know you want to...

[mccollins]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

I just feel like we've been on the same wavelength most of the game.

I thought the same about you and me. After a slightly odd day 1, you've seemed like your normal investigative villager self.

I don't know that LSG was trying to move the vote away from me any more than she was indicating the two she has more suspicions about.

[mccollins]

Originally Posted by Alan T

Just because I'm not posting or really participating at all in the discussion anymore means that you should put words in my mouth. I'm not dead yet. Not sure where the below posts indicate that I trust you.

I hope you're not sitting out in protest or anything. We all need to work together here...

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by mccollins

I hope you're not sitting out in protest or anything. We all need to work together here...

Don't be silly. nothing for me to protest here. It's just a game.

[PackerFanatic]

Originally Posted by Danny

Circle of trust and Circle of distrust

Ahhh, makes sense! Thanks

[PackerFanatic]

VOTE OLIEGIRL

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

4 Oliegirl: GoldenEagle (1643), Danny (1646), EagleFan (1689), Render (1723), Telle (1762)
3 McCollins: Claphamsa (1713), Schmidty (1756), Passacaglia (1763)
3 Passacaglia: LoneStarGirl (1697), Mrs. Schmidty (1752), Chief Rum (1757)
1 GoldenEagle: Oliegirl (1647)

I count five votes for olie, actually. PF's makes it 6.

[Passacaglia]

PF, any thoughts on your vote? Does the fact that your vote has given her a three vote lead make you feel less comfortable about it?

[st.cronin]

6 Oliegirl: GoldenEagle (1643), Danny (1646), EagleFan (1689), Render (1723), Telle (1762), PackerFanatic (1783)
3 McCollins: Claphamsa (1713), Schmidty (1756), Passacaglia (1763)
3 Passacaglia: LoneStarGirl (1697), Mrs. Schmidty (1752), Chief Rum (1757)
1 GoldenEagle: Oliegirl (1647)

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

PF, any thoughts on your vote? Does the fact that your vote has given her a three vote lead make you feel less comfortable about it?

Not trying to be challenging, it's just that you voted with no reasoning given, and that made me go back and glance at the vote count. Since it makes me safer, I like the vote, but the fact that we're starting to look at a runaway on a day like today seems strange.

[oliegirl]

UNVOTE GOLDENEAGLE
VOTE MCCOLLINS

Off work now and around until deadling, may be in and out though.

[PackerFanatic]

I guess I missed a couple of olie votes in there - I didn't want to make it too much of a runaway, but I am just a little unnerved by some of her actions as of late. I haven't seen much from mccollins to push me one way or the other...

She will probably end up being a villager though, knowing my voting record this game, heh.

[oliegirl]

Originally Posted by PackerFanatic

I guess I missed a couple of olie votes in there - I didn't want to make it too much of a runaway, but I am just a little unnerved by some of her actions as of late. I haven't seen much from mccollins to push me one way or the other...

She will probably end up being a villager though, knowing my voting record this game, heh.

You are right, and then your head will be on the chopping block for voting for another villager...voting me off will accomplish nothing for the village, except put them at even more of a disadvantage.

[Mrs. Schmidty]

Originally Posted by Schmidty

I don't know who to vote for at all, and I'm afraid of getting yelled at like everyone else has been, so I'm stumped. This entire game has been a clusterfoook, and I know that I haven't done anything to help that fact.

I'm going to go with someone UTR for now:

Vote mccollins

LOL if we all used that logic you'd be lynched yourself my darling.

[EagleFan]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

The wolves may have known Lathum was the fake seer from a bad read on Telle--and killed him to get him out of the game before he could prove this further, and thus also continue to confuse the real seer, who likely also does not know if he/she is the real seer. Point being, Telle would be a wolf in that scenario--and Pass could be for the same reason. In fact, they could both be wolves.

That's some very wolfish logic there. Why would they kill off Lathum if he was clearing wolves? That would be a pretty bad move IMHO. Especially if he is/was the fake seer as keeping him alive and clearing wolves could bring the real seer out in the open.

That no reason vote may be returning, but with a reason, if the wolfish logic keeps appearing in your posts.

[oliegirl]

Originally Posted by EagleFan

That's some very wolfish logic there. Why would they kill off Lathum if he was clearing wolves? That would be a pretty bad move IMHO. Especially if he is/was the fake seer as keeping him alive and clearing wolves could bring the real seer out in the open.

That no reason vote may be returning, but with a reason, if the wolfish logic keeps appearing in your posts.

It's not wolfish logic on Chief's part at all, it's great analysis - and pretty much word for word what I was saying all day Friday. A lot of people jumped to the conclusion that Lathum's nightkill cleared Telle, but I disagreed and now Chief does too.

[SnDvls]

Vote Passacaglia

this is where I've been leaning and I still believe it will help the other seer to know if they are the "real" seer or not.

[EagleFan]

Jusgt a quick run down of the players and my take so far (subject to change with today's results):

1. PackerFanatic - hard to read, UTR wolfish vibe though
2. oliegirl - pinging wolf big time
3. Lathum - killed night 3, seer
4. Mrs. Schmidty - still getting a wolf vibe, but not certain
5. LoneStarGirl - either her or oliegirl I believe but oliegirl is the one pinging so she stays clear to me so far (unless we find that oliegirl is good)
6. Passacaglia - no reason to doubt (though I really want to say he is a wolf just because)
7. mccollins - slight wolf ping, I think that slip was not an innocent slip and will be getting my vote tomorrow
8. claphamsa - no read one way or the other
9. DaddyTorgo - killed night 2, bodyguard
10. Alan T - forced into CoT, no doubt of him
11. Chief Rum - starting to ping
12. Danny - no idea
13. Barkeep49 - lynched day 2, spy
14. SnDvls - UTR wolf?
15. saldana - lynched day 3, vanilla villager
16. Schmidty - no idea, very UTR but not pinging as a wolf
17. KWhit - killed night 1, vanilla villager
18. RendeR - hard read, I always read him as a wolf so I have no current idea
19. EagleFan - CoT
20. Telle - close to CoT, I can't see why the wolves would kill Lathum if they thought he was fake and clearing wolves which means his read on her was correct (either because he was real or by chance)
21. GoldenEagle - no pinging yet

[EagleFan]

Originally Posted by oliegirl

It's not wolfish logic on Chief's part at all, it's great analysis - and pretty much word for word what I was saying all day Friday. A lot of people jumped to the conclusion that Lathum's nightkill cleared Telle, but I disagreed and now Chief does too.

Why would you kill Lathum if he is clearing your fellow wolves? If he continues to clear, especially when you eliminate the BG and the spy, it almost forces the real seer to reveal at some point or to keep his or her good information to themselves and not help the village.

So you would rather us lynch Telle or Pass. If we do that when they turn up good it's you and CR as the next to go but I guess you are trying to play the odds thinking that by then you will have enough of a lead that you can sacrifice yourselves?


And all this with mccollins as a possible target. Something tells me that he is being protected here and may be the cunning. Draw the heat elsewhere in an attempt to confuse us hoping that by the time we get to you and your furry friends that you have gained enough ground that we cannot swing it in our favor.

[oliegirl]

Originally Posted by EagleFan

Jusgt a quick run down of the players and my take so far (subject to change with today's results):

1. PackerFanatic - hard to read, UTR wolfish vibe though
2. oliegirl - pinging wolf big time
3. Lathum - killed night 3, seer
4. Mrs. Schmidty - still getting a wolf vibe, but not certain
5. LoneStarGirl - either her or oliegirl I believe but oliegirl is the one pinging so she stays clear to me so far (unless we find that oliegirl is good)
6. Passacaglia - no reason to doubt (though I really want to say he is a wolf just because)
7. mccollins - slight wolf ping, I think that slip was not an innocent slip and will be getting my vote tomorrow
8. claphamsa - no read one way or the other
9. DaddyTorgo - killed night 2, bodyguard
10. Alan T - forced into CoT, no doubt of him
11. Chief Rum - starting to ping
12. Danny - no idea
13. Barkeep49 - lynched day 2, spy
14. SnDvls - UTR wolf?
15. saldana - lynched day 3, vanilla villager
16. Schmidty - no idea, very UTR but not pinging as a wolf
17. KWhit - killed night 1, vanilla villager
18. RendeR - hard read, I always read him as a wolf so I have no current idea
19. EagleFan - CoT
20. Telle - close to CoT, I can't see why the wolves would kill Lathum if they thought he was fake and clearing wolves which means his read on her was correct (either because he was real or by chance)
21. GoldenEagle - no pinging yet

You really don't get the logic that the wolves would Fake Seer Lathum to throw the "real" seer off, thinking that Lathum's scan of Telle was correct, thus making our real seer think that they are the fake seer??? I don't see how you could not get that, and think that the wolves would come up with that plan. It's brilliant. It eliminates a very good player in Lathum, leaves the village spinning it's wheels on who the "real" seer is, and leaves the real seer in total confusion. Kills 3 birds with one stone essentially.

And if that is in fact what they did, then their plan worked, b/c we've spent the last 2 days (not counting weekend) bickering about whether or not Lathum's killing cleared Telle.

[EagleFan]

Originally Posted by oliegirl

You really don't get the logic that the wolves would Fake Seer Lathum to throw the "real" seer off, thinking that Lathum's scan of Telle was correct, thus making our real seer think that they are the fake seer??? I don't see how you could not get that, and think that the wolves would come up with that plan. It's brilliant. It eliminates a very good player in Lathum, leaves the village spinning it's wheels on who the "real" seer is, and leaves the real seer in total confusion. Kills 3 birds with one stone essentially.

And if that is in fact what they did, then their plan worked, b/c we've spent the last 2 days (not counting weekend) bickering about whether or not Lathum's killing cleared Telle.

Not when they have elimitate the spy and the body guard. It would serve them better to allow for fake scans and draw out the real seer. Why should they get cute when they are off to as good of a start as this? If the BG and spy were still in play maybe they go that route. With them out of the picture it makes NO sense to go that route.

It makes more sense for them to try to claim theories like this.

[oliegirl]

Originally Posted by EagleFan

Why would you kill Lathum if he is clearing your fellow wolves? If he continues to clear, especially when you eliminate the BG and the spy, it almost forces the real seer to reveal at some point or to keep his or her good information to themselves and not help the village.

So you would rather us lynch Telle or Pass. If we do that when they turn up good it's you and CR as the next to go but I guess you are trying to play the odds thinking that by then you will have enough of a lead that you can sacrifice yourselves?


And all this with mccollins as a possible target. Something tells me that he is being protected here and may be the cunning. Draw the heat elsewhere in an attempt to confuse us hoping that by the time we get to you and your furry friends that you have gained enough ground that we cannot swing it in our favor.

I am not a wolf! You are basing all of this on the "fact" that I am a wolf, but I'm not...so what happens when you kill me and I come back villager. Then you are back at the same place you started today. Kill McCollins today, you just said you think he might be the cunning wolf. Then if he comes back good, fine, kill me and/or pass...but if he comes back wolf, we've made progress. Why spend another day in limbo when you yourself said you think he's a wolf???? I don't get that. Killing me proves nothing...absolutely nothing. If I've been scanned, the results haven't been obviously posted, so you won't prove or negate the true seer, I am not one to move votes around so you don't have a bunch of crazy switches to analyze. I get why I am pinging wolf, but I swear I'm a villager.

[oliegirl]

Originally Posted by EagleFan

Not when they have elimitate the spy and the body guard. It would serve them better to allow for fake scans and draw out the real seer. Why should they get cute when they are off to as good of a start as this? If the BG and spy were still in play maybe they go that route. With them out of the picture it makes NO sense to go that route.

It makes more sense for them to try to claim theories like this.

Because if they did what I think they did, killing Lathum puts them in an even better position, which is what they want. That is what I am saying, if they did this then we are playing right into their hands and helping them win the game. We are down to what, 11 villagers...you lynch me tonight you are down to 10, they kill someone tonight, down to 9...that means they could achieve victory in 2 days. And that is assuming they don't have some sort of power for a double kill or something.