03-04-2011, 11:44 AM | #1801 | |
College Starter
Join Date: Nov 2004
Location: Out of Grad School Hell :)
|
Quote:
So am I reading between the lines right, he thinks the cunning has been scanned?
__________________
“I don’t like the Cubs,” Joey Votto said. “And I’m not going to pat anybody with a Cubs uniform on the back." |
|
03-04-2011, 11:50 AM | #1802 |
General Manager
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Chicago
|
There is that vote log, and there was also being there as last night was sorting itself out. The wolves wanted mckerney lynched, and I don't see any way that they wanted to give up the brutal in that position instead of a "normal" wolf. A day later, maybe, but not last night. Last night they wanted to off a villager and then dictate to us with 3 wolves (including brutal) among 8 players today.
I won't be voting mckerney today and I won't be voting him tomorrow on the off chance that we are both around. |
03-04-2011, 11:51 AM | #1803 | |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Where Hip Hop lives
|
Quote:
Correct, that's his theory, and considering our suspicions, it kinda meshes with things. Looking at yesterday's vote history suggests this as well.
__________________
. . I would rather be wrong...Than live in the shadows of your song...My mind is open wide...And now I'm ready to start...You're not sure...You open the door...And step out into the dark...Now I'm ready. |
|
03-04-2011, 11:51 AM | #1804 | |
General Manager
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Chicago
|
Quote:
I think the chances are pretty good, cougar. The wolf kills have been pretty by the numbers: seer, bodyguard, cleared players. Last night, they didn't take a cleared player. They took a player who had made strong villager plays in the thread yesterday but was not seer scanned like GE. So I'm wondering why they deviated from their pattern. |
|
03-04-2011, 11:52 AM | #1805 |
Head Coach
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Bath, ME
|
I think we have to assume Mckerney's good. JAG certainly seemed to be holding on to his vote all day, presumably to vote whereever he needed to, to get out of trouble. So I think his vote on McK helps clear McK. JAG could have voted Pass there.
Which doesn't help Pass out. |
03-04-2011, 11:53 AM | #1806 |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Where Hip Hop lives
|
I can see what you're saying re: the brutal, hoops, but I really think if it comes to a choice between two wolves, the wolves will always push the brutal to use that extra kill as soon as possible. One less villager means one less vote to combat, which at end game might be more important than having one more face to hide behind.
In any case, I am with you. I am not looking to vote mckerney anytime soon.
__________________
. . I would rather be wrong...Than live in the shadows of your song...My mind is open wide...And now I'm ready to start...You're not sure...You open the door...And step out into the dark...Now I'm ready. |
03-04-2011, 11:56 AM | #1807 | |
Head Coach
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Bath, ME
|
Quote:
I want to bump this up to the current page. NTN puts JAG up 3-1 over himself early on. A self defense vote, but presumably he could have voted someone else that early and set up another candidate if he was a wolf. Chief and Cougar then add new candidates, rather than vote NTN or JAG. Perhaps of interest. GE chooses Mckerney on his vote over Pass or NTN or JAG. |
|
03-04-2011, 12:09 PM | #1808 | |
Pro Starter
Join Date: Apr 2003
Location: Alabama
|
Quote:
One thing to note on GE's vote is that it happens 4 minutes after I talk about wanting to vote for mckerney still. |
|
03-04-2011, 12:11 PM | #1809 |
General Manager
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Chicago
|
Yep, but if NTN doesn't move late do you still think GE moves behind him?
I give NTN much more credit for the success we had last night than I do GE at this point. Not a "free pass" level of trust, but it would take some work to talk me into voting for him. |
03-04-2011, 12:13 PM | #1810 | |
College Starter
Join Date: Nov 2004
Location: Out of Grad School Hell :)
|
Quote:
Ok, that makes some sense. Thanks.
__________________
“I don’t like the Cubs,” Joey Votto said. “And I’m not going to pat anybody with a Cubs uniform on the back." |
|
03-04-2011, 12:15 PM | #1811 |
Pro Starter
Join Date: Apr 2003
Location: Alabama
|
Vote Pass
|
03-04-2011, 12:15 PM | #1812 | |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Where Hip Hop lives
|
Quote:
It's about time I got some peeps on my side on ntn. IMO, he has proven it well before this. FYI, GE has been gunning for NTN all game, if you recall.
__________________
. . I would rather be wrong...Than live in the shadows of your song...My mind is open wide...And now I'm ready to start...You're not sure...You open the door...And step out into the dark...Now I'm ready. |
|
03-04-2011, 12:16 PM | #1813 |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Where Hip Hop lives
|
Do we assume the theory and go after the mysterious last brutal wolf, or do we check the theory today? I lean toward the latter.
__________________
. . I would rather be wrong...Than live in the shadows of your song...My mind is open wide...And now I'm ready to start...You're not sure...You open the door...And step out into the dark...Now I'm ready. |
03-04-2011, 12:19 PM | #1814 |
Pro Starter
Join Date: Apr 2003
Location: Alabama
|
Hey if we want to go after the cunning, I am down with that. we need to decide quickly though as I won't be available to change after 3:20 or so as I head to hopefully take my friends money
|
03-04-2011, 12:24 PM | #1815 |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Where Hip Hop lives
|
Well, let's test it. Your vote is on Pass. I'll put mine on GE. We'll see what people want to do.
VOTE GOLDENEAGLE
__________________
. . I would rather be wrong...Than live in the shadows of your song...My mind is open wide...And now I'm ready to start...You're not sure...You open the door...And step out into the dark...Now I'm ready. |
03-04-2011, 12:29 PM | #1816 |
Coordinator
Join Date: Oct 2000
|
I had wanted to vote for him a few days ago, I have no problem doing it now with others on board.
Vote Golden Eagle |
03-04-2011, 12:32 PM | #1817 |
Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: Dec 2002
Location: Little Rock, AR
|
Do you guys really want to bark up this tree? You had the seer clear me to a known villager. Nevermind the fact that I am vanilla villager, but the percentage play is terrible.
__________________
Xbox 360 Gamer Tag: GoldenEagle014 |
03-04-2011, 12:38 PM | #1818 |
Head Coach
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Bath, ME
|
How is it a bad percentage play. There are 8 people left, I believe, and one of this is almost certainly the cunning wolf. Several of those 8 are very, very unlikely to be wolves. If we had started the game suggesting that the seer's teammate would be the cunning, yes that would be a poor percentage, but we're looking at different statistics at this point.
|
03-04-2011, 12:49 PM | #1819 |
General Manager
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Chicago
|
I'm not dead set on doing this play - there is definitely risk in it.
If I was pretty sure on the other wolf I would push hard for taking out the other wolf first. As it stands, I'm waffling a bit on what I think is the best play. A bad lynch, no matter who it is, gives control back to the wolves in a game with six players and a brutal wolf. |
03-04-2011, 12:52 PM | #1820 | |
Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: Dec 2002
Location: Little Rock, AR
|
Quote:
The role has a 50% chance of being in the game. Twenty people started the game, meaning there is 2.5% chance any of us is the cunning wolf. In addition, I have been scanned and cleared. Lets take that percentage to about 1.5% due to that. It is just not a good decision.
__________________
Xbox 360 Gamer Tag: GoldenEagle014 |
|
03-04-2011, 12:53 PM | #1821 | |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Where Hip Hop lives
|
Quote:
Problem is, without a for sure other wolf, I don't know how we can ignore this or let it be. Don't we have to explore this?
__________________
. . I would rather be wrong...Than live in the shadows of your song...My mind is open wide...And now I'm ready to start...You're not sure...You open the door...And step out into the dark...Now I'm ready. |
|
03-04-2011, 12:54 PM | #1822 |
Head Coach
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Bath, ME
|
What makes you think there's a 50% chance?
And 12 of those people are dead, so clearly they were not the cunning. Therefore, if there is a cunning, there is a 12.5% chance that it was you. Yes, there's less chance that you're a wolf, by sheer numbers, than anyone else, but based on voting records there's a much greater chance than average that you are one. |
03-04-2011, 12:55 PM | #1823 | |
Head Coach
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Bath, ME
|
Quote:
No, I don't think you have to explore it. If the wolves were clever, they could have left GE alive just for this reason. I think you guys should vote purely on wolfiness and voting records today. GE is a primate candidate because of that, I think, and to a lesser extent because of the night kill. |
|
03-04-2011, 12:58 PM | #1824 |
College Starter
Join Date: Nov 2004
Location: Out of Grad School Hell :)
|
I will.stick with pass for now, but I see how the GE thing makes some sense. I do not want a tie, won't that give the wolf group a nightkill without us having a shot at lynching a wolf?
__________________
“I don’t like the Cubs,” Joey Votto said. “And I’m not going to pat anybody with a Cubs uniform on the back." |
03-04-2011, 12:59 PM | #1825 | |
Pro Starter
Join Date: Apr 2003
Location: Alabama
|
Quote:
I don't think so. I thought ALL night activities would not happen...including a night kill. |
|
03-04-2011, 12:59 PM | #1826 |
Head Coach
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Bath, ME
|
Prime candidate, not primate. Sorry GE, not trying to call you an ape ;-)
|
03-04-2011, 01:05 PM | #1827 | |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Where Hip Hop lives
|
Quote:
I am comfortable with this. Voting records have reflected some doubt about GE's allegiance, and he has skated by because of the scan. This makes sense to me. Unless a better analysis comes along, I am comfortable with GE as a candidate today, whether prime or primate.
__________________
. . I would rather be wrong...Than live in the shadows of your song...My mind is open wide...And now I'm ready to start...You're not sure...You open the door...And step out into the dark...Now I'm ready. |
|
03-04-2011, 01:07 PM | #1828 |
Head Coach
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Bath, ME
|
If GE was good, then we have to assume either Chief is a wolf, or none of the wolves voted for McKerney. That would be odd, but certainly possible. In which case, Pass who abstained from voting, possibly holding onto his vote for a possible save, looks bad, as does Cougar and PF, who manage to not vote JAG but not not vote a presumed villager in Mckerney. In which case, who looks worse, PF who votes NTN very early and doesn't get any traction, or Cougar who adds Pass to the list when there's already two other non-JAG options? Cougar and Pass have to be the most unlikely wolf pairing based on that.
|
03-04-2011, 01:13 PM | #1829 |
Head Coach
Join Date: Jul 2001
|
Pass and GE, book it!
|
03-04-2011, 01:22 PM | #1830 |
Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: Dec 2002
Location: Little Rock, AR
|
__________________
Xbox 360 Gamer Tag: GoldenEagle014 |
03-04-2011, 01:24 PM | #1831 |
Head Coach
Join Date: Jul 2001
|
Let's also not forget pass wanted bh lynched earlier which would have helped clear ge.
That said, we should not go for the cunning first, absolutely no way. A brutal kill does not hurt us at all, and in case were wrong and say pass is the cunning, we would then be saving ourselves from lynching ge al together. I think voting for ge is a bad move today (even though. Ithink he's a wolf) |
03-04-2011, 01:25 PM | #1832 |
Pro Starter
Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: Appleton, WI
|
Had I been around last night, I would have moved my NTN vote, since it never went anywhere. I will follow the GE train of thought for now. I really need to do a better job of analysis myself, heh...
VOTE GOLDENEAGLE |
03-04-2011, 01:26 PM | #1833 | |
Head Coach
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Bath, ME
|
Quote:
Okay, not sure if this is helpful, but wanted to go back and add the color here. I didn't bother coloring the end, and gave up on coloring the vote count. |
|
03-04-2011, 01:26 PM | #1834 |
Head Coach
Join Date: Jul 2001
|
|
03-04-2011, 01:26 PM | #1835 |
Pro Starter
Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: Appleton, WI
|
That's a good point Danny made while I was posting...gah, darn these end-game scenarios.
UNVOTE GOLDENEAGLE |
03-04-2011, 01:29 PM | #1836 |
Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: Dec 2002
Location: Little Rock, AR
|
Can someone explain how my voting record is so suspicious?
The switch to JAG late yesterday does look fishy, but I did it on the premises that Pass could come in and create a tie.
__________________
Xbox 360 Gamer Tag: GoldenEagle014 |
03-04-2011, 01:33 PM | #1837 | |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Where Hip Hop lives
|
Quote:
Off the top of my head, you also pushed up mckerney (admittedly on top of mine) yesterday when JAG was still clearly in the lead, and moved mckerney within one. And your endless pursuit of ntndeacon has been fishy to me all game. I would have to take a look at the rest of your votes to see where they sit, but I don't recall some great vote by you at the moment.
__________________
. . I would rather be wrong...Than live in the shadows of your song...My mind is open wide...And now I'm ready to start...You're not sure...You open the door...And step out into the dark...Now I'm ready. |
|
03-04-2011, 01:37 PM | #1838 | |
Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: Dec 2002
Location: Little Rock, AR
|
Quote:
I pushed for ntn because it was a vote for information. I still think there is a good chance he is a wolf My idea was simple. If ntn came back as a wolf, it cleared pass. If not, then pass is likely a wolf. You also have to consider that JAG was very defensive on ntn yesterday. Mckerney's day 1 move right before mau reveled as the seer is what got my attention. It would not surprise if that was planned. If I recall correctly, mau was starting to pull away with the votes. I will be around all afternoon to answer questions.
__________________
Xbox 360 Gamer Tag: GoldenEagle014 |
|
03-04-2011, 01:38 PM | #1839 |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: Mays Landing, NJ USA
|
As you prepare for the next leg of the race the teams all congregate in a meeting room at the hotel where everyone is staying. The netwrok has called everyone together hoping to keep everyone is as good of a mood as possible after the recent events involving Lathum and The Jackal (they try to avoid any other homicidal tendencies).
"We wanted to help everyone relax by offering a movie night. This way everyone can forget about the game for a while." "We would like to let you view a world premier of a movie which we will be broadcasting after the race is over. It is about a hero from the mountains. He was a miner that was stricken down in the prime of his life. There has been much controversy about him since his death and some view him as a hero but others see him in a less than favorable light." "We would like to present you with the premier of Bull Moose Special." |
03-04-2011, 01:39 PM | #1840 |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: Mays Landing, NJ USA
|
Sorry, was bored at work.
Just a reminder that the results will be posted late tonight. |
03-04-2011, 01:40 PM | #1841 |
Head Coach
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Bath, ME
|
lol
|
03-04-2011, 01:43 PM | #1842 | |
Coordinator
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Big Ten Country
|
Quote:
I don't really know what you're trying to say about me, but to clarify -- I never said I wanted bhlloy lynched. In fact, I argued that he was not likely to be the cunning, since if he were, he wouldn't have killed DV. |
|
03-04-2011, 01:44 PM | #1843 |
Head Coach
Join Date: Jul 2001
|
You scared me ef. The page was loading on my phone and my phone and first thing I read was bull moose special and I thought we were going to have a dead villager
|
03-04-2011, 01:44 PM | #1844 |
Coordinator
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Big Ten Country
|
I guess that's more denying, rather than clarifying.
|
03-04-2011, 01:54 PM | #1845 |
Head Coach
Join Date: Jul 2001
|
I might be remembering that wrong then. Doesn't change my feelings on you though since it has to do with your relation to ge and not you individually.
|
03-04-2011, 01:58 PM | #1846 |
Coordinator
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Big Ten Country
|
|
03-04-2011, 02:21 PM | #1847 | |
High School Varsity
Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: East Lothian, Scotland
|
Quote:
|
|
03-04-2011, 02:28 PM | #1848 |
Favored Bitch #1
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: homeless in NJ
|
lol
|
03-04-2011, 02:28 PM | #1849 |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Where Hip Hop lives
|
The WTF moment on the Bull Moose Special was, in retrospect, just an awesomely hilarious moment.
__________________
. . I would rather be wrong...Than live in the shadows of your song...My mind is open wide...And now I'm ready to start...You're not sure...You open the door...And step out into the dark...Now I'm ready. |
03-04-2011, 02:58 PM | #1850 |
Head Coach
Join Date: Oct 2002
Location: Colorado Springs
|
Just wait till the next leg. A mystical being riding a flying yak will be awaiting your arrival, bearing gifts of coffee and ham.
|
Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests) | |
Thread Tools | |
|
|