Survivor: New Helsing Tribal Thread - Page 37

Alan T · 02-13-2007, 12:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lathum

hard to say. All I know is it is 50/50 Path is a wolf and 33% swaggs is one

Technically marathoner or ntndeacon "could" have been a wolf.. So path is only 25% likely to be a wolf.

Alan T · 02-13-2007, 12:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by st.cronin

Assuming no conversions, and no seer reveal, we could maybe just use that list to coordinate with the other tribe who should lose each challenge, and who should then be voted off.

We've been trying for a few days, but people don't seem to want to work with us

st.cronin · 02-13-2007, 12:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Alan T

We've been trying for a few days, but people don't seem to want to work with us

If you had brought something like this to me, I would have endorsed it. I think you should at least bring it up. They might like it.

Alan T · 02-13-2007, 12:51 PM

The one thing is, its probably incorrect to say Howard or us have a better or worse chance at voting off a wolf based on the sum parts. Since each vote, only one person is removed, you can't really say because there are multiple former Oz members in Howard its less likely, or more former Lupus members in Howard its more likely...

Its simply if Howard loses the challenge, they shouldn't be voting off a former Oz member, and instead look at which individual has the most likely probability of being a wolf.

Thats why I said earlier I really didn't want to vote St.cronin for revenge reasons or otherwise.. its like road rage and would only in the end hurt me.

Ideally I would like us to do as strongly as possible for the next several immunity challenges (like we have been) and let Howard have the opportunity to remove some of their wolves since they have a larger number of good candidates.

Lathum · 02-13-2007, 12:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Alan T

Technically marathoner or ntndeacon "could" have been a wolf.. So path is only 25% likely to be a wolf.

sure, but we are dealing with unknown variables. The only way to be sure is eliminate them. We know the seer is in Oz so we wouldn't be hurting ourselves unless there is a body guard role.

Alan T · 02-13-2007, 12:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by st.cronin

If you had brought something like this to me, I would have endorsed it. I think you should at least bring it up. They might like it.

To be fair, we had been bringing stuff like this up. THats what the bulk of the weekend communication was about that got people all upset.

I think its easier for us to say this is a great idea since we aren't 1 of the people in Lupus who is a villager and knows he is a villager and is being told he needs to take one for the team.

I still think its a strong idea for the village as a whole, but we have to remember this is also survivor, and if you aren't there at the end you lose.

st.cronin · 02-13-2007, 12:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Alan T

To be fair, we had been bringing stuff like this up. THats what the bulk of the weekend communication was about that got people all upset.

I think its easier for us to say this is a great idea since we aren't 1 of the people in Lupus who is a villager and knows he is a villager and is being told he needs to take one for the team.

I still think its a strong idea for the village as a whole, but we have to remember this is also survivor, and if you aren't there at the end you lose.

There are 3 former ozzers in the other tribe. I don't think it would take much convincing to explain to them that playing all scissors would be a good idea. They're not going to get voted off, anyway. Then we take our chances with the other players. We'll almost certainly win the challenge if we can get them to agree to go three down.

Alan T · 02-13-2007, 12:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by st.cronin

There are 3 former ozzers in the other tribe. I don't think it would take much convincing to explain to them that playing all scissors would be a good idea. They're not going to get voted off, anyway. Then we take our chances with the other players. We'll almost certainly win the challenge if we can get them to agree to go three down.

I am guessing the former helsing members (Pass and Gramm) would be ok with the idea if our intentions were to then start tanking to vote out the highly likely wolf candidates on our side too. That would be 5 of their members and a majority.

path12 · 02-13-2007, 12:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lathum

hard to say. All I know is it is 50/50 Path is a wolf and 33% swaggs is one

Why is it 50/50 that I'm a wolf? (I'm not, by the way). We very well could have voted off our wolf. I still think we did.

And along those lines, since a) there's some distrust of me and b) I have the ability to directly communicate with the other tribe in my private thread, I do not think that I should have two tries in this challenge. I would nominate Cronin or one of you that does not have the same suspicion level.

st.cronin · 02-13-2007, 01:00 PM

One thing I don't understand, is there any reason for original Helsing to get immunity, other than Lathum's self-interest?

path12 · 02-13-2007, 01:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lathum

sure, but we are dealing with unknown variables. The only way to be sure is eliminate them. We know the seer is in Oz so we wouldn't be hurting ourselves unless there is a body guard role.

BTW, I understand the logic here, but man, it sure isn't the most welcome I've ever felt.

Alan T · 02-13-2007, 01:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by st.cronin

One thing I don't understand, is there any reason for original Helsing to get immunity, other than Lathum's self-interest?

Its more about odds. You have a higher chance of hitting a wolf by removing Lupus and Howard first.

st.cronin · 02-13-2007, 01:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Alan T

Its more about odds. You have a higher chance of hitting a wolf by removing Lupus and Howard first.

Is that because there are fewer members of Lupus and Howard?

Swaggs · 02-13-2007, 01:03 PM

I will say this in here, since the teams have been split up.

I am not certain, but I think Anxiety is the wolf that was on the former Lupus team. I say this for a few reasons.

One, I know that I am not a wolf and that I am a normal villager. This won't mean much to you all right now, but it makes things a lot easier for me to look at.

Two, KWhit had one of the two idols and willingly gave it away. I know that he had it, because our failsafe was to have one player (me) distribute the two idols, so a wolf would not know who had them. We all agreed not to talk about them at all, so that the information would hopefully make the wolves think twice about night attacking anyone in our tribe.

Three, and most important in my mind, is that Anxiety did a ton of work on the wikipedia challenge. KWhit and I, like several others this weekend, were a little less motivated to completing it.

The only thing that makes my question this, is that KWhit has been fairly angry over giving up the idol and has cast a few accusations as a result. I think he is legitimately angry, but I could see him playing it up a bit, to make an impression.

To me, there is about a 75% or great chance that Anxiety is the Lupus wolf.

Alan T · 02-13-2007, 01:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by st.cronin

Is that because there are fewer members of Lupus and Howard?

Its just every vote for a former lupus member is a 33% chance at hitting the wolf

every vote for a former howard member is a 25% chance at hitting the wolf

every vote for a former helsing member is a 16% chance at hitting a wolf.

So you have to vote twice for helsing members to equal one vote for a lupus member.

Also another possibility is before the end of this plan is achieved another reward challenge updates our info on how many wolves are out there.

st.cronin · 02-13-2007, 01:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Swaggs

I will say this in here, since the teams have been split up.

I am not certain, but I think Anxiety is the wolf that was on the former Lupus team. I say this for a few reasons.

One, I know that I am not a wolf and that I am a normal villager. This won't mean much to you all right now, but it makes things a lot easier for me to look at.

Two, KWhit had one of the two idols and willingly gave it away. I know that he had it, because our failsafe was to have one player (me) distribute the two idols, so a wolf would not know who had them. We all agreed not to talk about them at all, so that the information would hopefully make the wolves think twice about night attacking anyone in our tribe.

Three, and most important in my mind, is that Anxiety did a ton of work on the wikipedia challenge. KWhit and I, like several others this weekend, were a little less motivated to completing it.

The only thing that makes my question this, is that KWhit has been fairly angry over giving up the idol and has cast a few accusations as a result. I think he is legitimately angry, but I could see him playing it up a bit, to make an impression.

To me, there is about a 75% or great chance that Anxiety is the Lupus wolf.

I can only confirm that Oz recieved ONE idol. It wasn't me who recieved it.

Swaggs · 02-13-2007, 01:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by st.cronin

I can only confirm that Oz recieved ONE idol. It wasn't me who recieved it.

I'll comment on that if everyone on our team agrees it is a good idea.

Alan T · 02-13-2007, 01:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Swaggs

I will say this in here, since the teams have been split up.

I am not certain, but I think Anxiety is the wolf that was on the former Lupus team. I say this for a few reasons.

One, I know that I am not a wolf and that I am a normal villager. This won't mean much to you all right now, but it makes things a lot easier for me to look at.

Two, KWhit had one of the two idols and willingly gave it away. I know that he had it, because our failsafe was to have one player (me) distribute the two idols, so a wolf would not know who had them. We all agreed not to talk about them at all, so that the information would hopefully make the wolves think twice about night attacking anyone in our tribe.

Three, and most important in my mind, is that Anxiety did a ton of work on the wikipedia challenge. KWhit and I, like several others this weekend, were a little less motivated to completing it.

The only thing that makes my question this, is that KWhit has been fairly angry over giving up the idol and has cast a few accusations as a result. I think he is legitimately angry, but I could see him playing it up a bit, to make an impression.

To me, there is about a 75% or great chance that Anxiety is the Lupus wolf.

so does this mean you had the other idol and didn't hand it over to them at the time that kwhit did?

st.cronin · 02-13-2007, 01:09 PM

Very suspicious if that's the case.

Alan T · 02-13-2007, 01:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Swaggs

I'll comment on that if everyone on our team agrees it is a good idea.

Well.. I think if you are a villager and you are an early target to be voted off (even if the end result will be incorrect, you have to understand the reasoning for it), you likely should pass the idol to someone who is least likely to be voted off and least likely to be a wolf (someone in oz such as st.cronin). Since otherwise its really wasted..

But I would be more interested in knowing why someone else held onto the idol at the time..

Swaggs · 02-13-2007, 01:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Alan T

so does this mean you had the other idol and didn't hand it over to them at the time that kwhit did?

If you guys are certain that you want to know the answer to this, I will gladly share it.

Think about the pros and cons of me clarifying it, though.

path12 · 02-13-2007, 01:11 PM

It's a seer reveal. Do we want that public? I don't think so.

st.cronin · 02-13-2007, 01:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Swaggs

If you guys are certain that you want to know the answer to this, I will gladly share it.

Think about the pros and cons of me clarifying it, though.

I see no cons, but I've only thought about it for a second. Surely you weren't worried that oz had a wolf. That would have been quite silly.

st.cronin · 02-13-2007, 01:12 PM

I'm sorry, Swaggs is not a seer. I don't believe that.

Alan T · 02-13-2007, 01:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by path12

It's a seer reveal. Do we want that public? I don't think so.

What is a seer reveal?

path12 · 02-13-2007, 01:13 PM

Well someone on Lupus apparently has some sort of important role and that is why they have one of the idols. Whatever it is I don't think it's best to advertise it.

Alan T · 02-13-2007, 01:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Swaggs

If you guys are certain that you want to know the answer to this, I will gladly share it.

Think about the pros and cons of me clarifying it, though.

Well I don't know the current status, so I guess I dont understand the harm.

if Blade had one and was voted out so there is only one in the game, then I can see why we wouldn't want to bring that up.

If you have one then I think you should say you do and then pass it to someone a bit better to have it (if you are indeed a villager).

If its something else I am not thinking about.. well I guess I dont have enough information to give an informed answer

Swaggs · 02-13-2007, 01:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by st.cronin

I'm sorry, Swaggs is not a seer. I don't believe that.

I am not a seer.

Not sure why path is saying something like that.

Alan T · 02-13-2007, 01:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by path12

Well someone on Lupus apparently has some sort of important role and that is why they have one of the idols. Whatever it is I don't think it's best to advertise it.

How do you know this?

st.cronin · 02-13-2007, 01:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by path12

Well someone on Lupus apparently has some sort of important role and that is why they have one of the idols. Whatever it is I don't think it's best to advertise it.

I don't believe that, and I think it will be impossible to convince me of it.

path12 · 02-13-2007, 01:15 PM

I misspoke about seer and I didn't mean to infer that you were it. I'm speculating on why you would be hesitant to explain the other idol.

path12 · 02-13-2007, 01:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Alan T

How do you know this?

Because it just makes sense. Why else wouldn't he want to divulge?

Lathum · 02-13-2007, 01:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by st.cronin

One thing I don't understand, is there any reason for original Helsing to get immunity, other than Lathum's self-interest?

I'm not sure what this means? I have no self interest, I think the members of Helsing will testify I have done nothing but act with the tribes best interests at heart.

Cronin, you have been fucking with me all game, why?

path12 · 02-13-2007, 01:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by st.cronin

I don't believe that, and I think it will be impossible to convince me of it.

Fine. Give me a better reason why he might not want to divulge.

st.cronin · 02-13-2007, 01:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lathum

I'm not sure what this means? I have no self interest, I think the members of Helsing will testify I have done nothing but act with the tribes best interests at heart.

Cronin, you have been fucking with me all game, why?

Cause it's fun.

No, I'm not fucking with you here - you said something like "vote for somebody other than Oz or Helsing." But we know Helsing has/had a wolf. So why is it a bad idea to vote for a helsing?

st.cronin · 02-13-2007, 01:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by path12

Fine. Give me a better reason why he might not want to divulge.

The only good reason is one Alan put out - that the other idol was kept by Blade, and is now out of the game. But if that was the case he should have said nothing, instead of hinting the way he did. I have no choice now but to think he's a wolf.

Alan T · 02-13-2007, 01:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by path12

Because it just makes sense. Why else wouldn't he want to divulge?

Well I just gave a different reason why. Im sure there are others too

Alan T · 02-13-2007, 01:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by st.cronin

Cause it's fun.

No, I'm not fucking with you here - you said something like "vote for somebody other than Oz or Helsing." But we know Helsing has/had a wolf. So why is it a bad idea to vote for a helsing?

For the immediate future the reason why its bad to, is because you just are being ineffecient at how you remove the wolves. It takes 2 votes for helsing members for every 1 vote for a lupus member. Since each helsing member is only 16% likely to be a wolf while each lupus member is 33% likely.

The mathematical best approach is to work your way down the tree probability wise. Remove Lupus first, then Howard second, then you only have 1 wolf left and alot of good guys including the seer.

The only addition is we never know along the way we might win some reward contest that gives us an updated wolf count that might make it a good reason to change plans.

Lathum · 02-13-2007, 01:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by st.cronin

Cause it's fun.

No, I'm not fucking with you here - you said something like "vote for somebody other than Oz or Helsing." But we know Helsing has/had a wolf. So why is it a bad idea to vote for a helsing?

lol. Because by eliminating the other 2 tribes guarentees us we only have one wolf left ( barring any strange mechanics).

I would rathed have a system then blindly eliminate people.

st.cronin · 02-13-2007, 01:23 PM

I understand Alan T's argument, I just thought Lathum was suggesting blind immunity for helsing. If there's a good reason for a helsing to get voted off, I don't think we should hesitate.

Swaggs · 02-13-2007, 01:24 PM

The reason not to divulge is that it gives the wolves a little something to think about.

st.cronin · 02-13-2007, 01:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Swaggs

The reason not to divulge is that it gives the wolves a little something to think about.

i'm not impressed

Lathum · 02-13-2007, 01:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by st.cronin

I understand Alan T's argument, I just thought Lathum was suggesting blind immunity for helsing. If there's a good reason for a helsing to get voted off, I don't think we should hesitate.

I didn't say that. Once we remove howard and Lupus we revisit out strategy then.

Swaggs · 02-13-2007, 01:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by st.cronin

i'm not impressed

My heart is broken.

As I said, if everyone thinks it is a good idea, I'm fine with telling you all.

Swaggs · 02-13-2007, 01:39 PM

Anyone have any more thoughts/questions for me?

I am leaving to work in about 15 minutes and won't be back until 8:00-8:30ish PM EST.

Alan T · 02-13-2007, 01:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Swaggs

Anyone have any more thoughts/questions for me?

I am leaving to work in about 15 minutes and won't be back until 8:00-8:30ish PM EST.

Just the ones I mentioned earlier. If there is something else I'm missing here, then well I guess I am missing it. My thoughts all along though was anyone who was a villager who knew they were likely to be voted out due to guilt by association knows they likely arent a wolf target either. So to hold on to the idol in Lupus would mean either they are extremely selfish or a wolf.. Perhaps I am indeed missing something here though.

Swaggs · 02-13-2007, 01:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Alan T

Just the ones I mentioned earlier. If there is something else I'm missing here, then well I guess I am missing it. My thoughts all along though was anyone who was a villager who knew they were likely to be voted out due to guilt by association knows they likely arent a wolf target either. So to hold on to the idol in Lupus would mean either they are extremely selfish or a wolf.. Perhaps I am indeed missing something here though.

Lupus made the collective decision to pass along their idols.

You guessed correctly earlier.

Hope that helps and I hope you are on our side.

Swaggs · 02-13-2007, 01:51 PM

I will be back this evening.

Lathum · 02-13-2007, 01:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Swaggs

Lupus made the collective decision to pass along their idols.

You guessed correctly earlier.

Hope that helps and I hope you are on our side.

didn't we already know that?

Lathum · 02-13-2007, 02:12 PM

dola- don't forget to send in our order

02-13-2007, 01:00 PM	#1810
st.cronin General Manager Join Date: Oct 2004 Location: New Mexico	One thing I don't understand, is there any reason for original Helsing to get immunity, other than Lathum's self-interest? __________________ co-commish: bb-bbcf.net knives out

02-13-2007, 01:03 PM	#1814
Swaggs Coordinator Join Date: Oct 2000	I will say this in here, since the teams have been split up. I am not certain, but I think Anxiety is the wolf that was on the former Lupus team. I say this for a few reasons. One, I know that I am not a wolf and that I am a normal villager. This won't mean much to you all right now, but it makes things a lot easier for me to look at. Two, KWhit had one of the two idols and willingly gave it away. I know that he had it, because our failsafe was to have one player (me) distribute the two idols, so a wolf would not know who had them. We all agreed not to talk about them at all, so that the information would hopefully make the wolves think twice about night attacking anyone in our tribe. Three, and most important in my mind, is that Anxiety did a ton of work on the wikipedia challenge. KWhit and I, like several others this weekend, were a little less motivated to completing it. The only thing that makes my question this, is that KWhit has been fairly angry over giving up the idol and has cast a few accusations as a result. I think he is legitimately angry, but I could see him playing it up a bit, to make an impression. To me, there is about a 75% or great chance that Anxiety is the Lupus wolf. __________________ DOWN WITH HATTRICK!!! The RWBL Are you reading In The Bleachers?

02-13-2007, 01:09 PM	#1819
st.cronin General Manager Join Date: Oct 2004 Location: New Mexico	Very suspicious if that's the case. __________________ co-commish: bb-bbcf.net knives out

02-13-2007, 01:11 PM	#1822
path12 Coordinator Join Date: Feb 2003 Location: Seattle, WA	It's a seer reveal. Do we want that public? I don't think so. __________________ We have always been at war with Eastasia.

02-13-2007, 01:12 PM	#1824
st.cronin General Manager Join Date: Oct 2004 Location: New Mexico	I'm sorry, Swaggs is not a seer. I don't believe that. __________________ co-commish: bb-bbcf.net knives out

02-13-2007, 12:51 PM	#1804
Alan T Hall Of Famer Join Date: Dec 2002 Location: Mass.	The one thing is, its probably incorrect to say Howard or us have a better or worse chance at voting off a wolf based on the sum parts. Since each vote, only one person is removed, you can't really say because there are multiple former Oz members in Howard its less likely, or more former Lupus members in Howard its more likely... Its simply if Howard loses the challenge, they shouldn't be voting off a former Oz member, and instead look at which individual has the most likely probability of being a wolf. Thats why I said earlier I really didn't want to vote St.cronin for revenge reasons or otherwise.. its like road rage and would only in the end hurt me. Ideally I would like us to do as strongly as possible for the next several immunity challenges (like we have been) and let Howard have the opportunity to remove some of their wolves since they have a larger number of good candidates.

02-13-2007, 01:13 PM	#1826
path12 Coordinator Join Date: Feb 2003 Location: Seattle, WA	Well someone on Lupus apparently has some sort of important role and that is why they have one of the idols. Whatever it is I don't think it's best to advertise it. __________________ We have always been at war with Eastasia.

02-13-2007, 01:15 PM	#1831
path12 Coordinator Join Date: Feb 2003 Location: Seattle, WA	I misspoke about seer and I didn't mean to infer that you were it. I'm speculating on why you would be hesitant to explain the other idol. __________________ We have always been at war with Eastasia.

02-13-2007, 01:23 PM	#1840
st.cronin General Manager Join Date: Oct 2004 Location: New Mexico	I understand Alan T's argument, I just thought Lathum was suggesting blind immunity for helsing. If there's a good reason for a helsing to get voted off, I don't think we should hesitate. __________________ co-commish: bb-bbcf.net knives out

02-13-2007, 01:24 PM	#1841
Swaggs Coordinator Join Date: Oct 2000	The reason not to divulge is that it gives the wolves a little something to think about. __________________ DOWN WITH HATTRICK!!! The RWBL Are you reading In The Bleachers?

02-13-2007, 01:39 PM	#1845
Swaggs Coordinator Join Date: Oct 2000	Anyone have any more thoughts/questions for me? I am leaving to work in about 15 minutes and won't be back until 8:00-8:30ish PM EST. __________________ DOWN WITH HATTRICK!!! The RWBL Are you reading In The Bleachers?

02-13-2007, 01:51 PM	#1848
Swaggs Coordinator Join Date: Oct 2000	I will be back this evening. __________________ DOWN WITH HATTRICK!!! The RWBL Are you reading In The Bleachers?

02-13-2007, 02:12 PM	#1850
Lathum Favored Bitch #1 Join Date: Dec 2001 Location: homeless in NJ	dola- don't forget to send in our order

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