The Stock Market thread

[Edward64]

I've seen warnings that the 20% above 52-week low may not mean much (especially since S&P and Nasdaq are lagging).

But hey, I'm desperate for any good news so lets celebrate the win!

https://www.cnn.com/business/live-ne...day/index.html

US stocks exploded higher Wednesday. The Dow is now more than 20% above its 52-week low, which puts it in a new bull market.
:
Wednesday's rally helped push the markets to their second straight month of solid returns. The three major indexes wrapped up November with gains between 4% and 6%.

Thanks Jerome. Can you please be sure to let the other Fed governors know not to even hint at anything contradictory to what you said? The have a habit of being too transparent and dampening good news. In fact, just tell them not to give any interviews.

Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell strongly suggested that the central bank is ready to slow its pace of interest rate hikes. Powell noted that the Fed is still concerned about inflation but that it also does not want to jeopardize the health of the labor market and broader economy either.

[Edward64]

Hmmmm. May be time to invest in some Indian ETFs.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/12/01/indi...y-by-2030.html

India is set to overtake Japan and Germany to become the world’s third-largest economy, according to S&P Global and Morgan Stanley.

S&P’s forecast is based on the projection that India’s annual nominal gross domestic product growth will average 6.3% through 2030. Similarly, Morgan Stanley estimates that India’s GDP is likely to more than double from current levels by 2031.

“India has the conditions in place for an economic boom fueled by offshoring, investment in manufacturing, the energy transition, and the country’s advanced digital infrastructure,” Morgan Stanley analysts led by Ridham Desai and Girish Acchipalia wrote in the report.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by Edward64

For no particular reason, some key dates ...

Next Fed meeting is Dec 14.

Next CPI report is Dec 13.

Next PCE report is Dec 1 (apparently the Fed likes this one)

Will everyone please stop buying non-essentials until Dec 15.

PCE report below. More evidence the rate increases are tempering inflation. Let's hope the Dec 13 CPI shows the same.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/12/01/key-...expected-.html

The core personal consumption expenditures price index, a gauge that excludes food and energy and is favored by the Federal Reserve, rose 0.2% for the month and was up 5% from a year ago. The monthly increase was below the 0.3% Dow Jones estimate, while the annual gain was in line.The gains also represent deceleration from September, which saw a monthly increase of 0.5% and an annual gain of 5.2%.

While the Fed takes in a broad range of measures to gauge inflation, it prefers the PCE index as it takes into account changes in consumer behavior such as substituting less expensive goods for pricier items. That’s different than the consumer price index, which is a raw measure of changes in prices.

[Edward64]

Nevermind.

I guess this means .75 is back on the table for Dec vs the .5 expectations from a few days back.

Job growth was much better than expected in November despite the Federal Reserve’s aggressive efforts to slow the labor market and tackle inflation.

Nonfarm payrolls increased 263,000 for the month while the unemployment rate was 3.7%, the Labor Department reported Friday. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been looking for an increase of 200,000 on the payrolls number and 3.7% for the jobless rate.

The monthly gain was a slight decrease from October’s upwardly revised 284,000. A broader measure of unemployment that includes discouraged workers and those holding part-time jobs for economic reasons edged lower to 6.7%.

“To have 263,000 jobs added even after policy rates have been raised by some [375] basis points is no joke,” said Seema Shah, chief global strategist at Principal Asset Management. “The labor market is hot, hot, hot, heaping pressure on the Fed to continue raising policy rates.”

[QuikSand]

WOW. 263k on payrolls, blows past the estimate. Fed's not gonna like that and the market doesn't either pic.twitter.com/rUr4w6bXjy

— Kailey Leinz (@kaileyleinz) December 2, 2022

some good insights in this thread... including the obvious political spinning

[sterlingice]

My god - what will happen if they keep using those record profits to "trickle down" a tiny fraction to wages?

Time to cut the legs out from under the economy to fix this problem

SI

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

some good insights in this thread... including the obvious political spinning

Good thing it went from -1.3% to -.12% by end of day.

It is an interesting conundrum about - trying to lower inflation but the job market is still going strong after all the rate hikes. CNBC has a chart on where all the jobs are. These are "net" gains.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/12/02/here...one-chart.html

There is a link below the chart that gives a better breakdown. I was interested in what went into the government hiring.

Government added 42,000 jobs in November, mostly in local government (+32,000). Government employment has increased by an average of 25,000 per month thus far this year, compared with 38,000 per month in 2021. Since February 2020, government employment is down by 461,000, or 2.0 percent

[QuikSand]

Lots of school systems jumping through unprecedented hoops to bring aboard teachers, non-educational professional staff, and support staff even after the school year began. It's been crazy here, and I'm sure in many places.

[Edward64]

Good move Apple.

Apple tells suppliers to plan for shift of manufacturing out of China | AppleInsider

Apple is working to speed up its shift of part of its supply chain out of China, with supply chain partners warned to plan for increases in assembly in India and Vietnam.

China is Apple's choice for production when it comes to many of its major products, but over the years, it has reconsidered relying on the country so much. While it has long planned to start to spread its production into other territories, it seems that Apple is becoming more proactive about its intentions.

In a Saturday report by the Wall Street Journal, Apple has "accelerated plans" to migrate some of its production elsewhere, according to sources involved in discussions. It is now reportedly informing suppliers to "plan more actively" for assembly elsewhere in Asia, especially India and Vietnam.

The messaging also apparently includes mention of reduced dependency on Foxconn Technology Group companies.

[flere-imsaho]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

Lots of school systems jumping through unprecedented hoops to bring aboard teachers, non-educational professional staff, and support staff even after the school year began. It's been crazy here, and I'm sure in many places.

I volunteer for our local K-8 district's finance advisory board and we just reviewed last year's numbers, included in which was the biggest expense under-run for ages, due solely to not being able to fill positions. Good for finances, of course, but brutal on the schools themselves. And this is a good, well-funded school system where teachers want to work. I was talking to the leadership and they're taking basically any warm bodies for substitutes right now.

[Edward64]

Man, I would have thought with China's baby steps in re-opening that market futures would be markedly positive. Unfortunately not

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by Edward64

For no particular reason, some key dates ...
Next Fed meeting is Dec 14.

Next CPI report is Dec 13.

Next PCE report is Dec 1 (apparently the Fed likes this one)
Will everyone please stop buying non-essentials until Dec 15.

Nice! Let's hope the Fed is convinced that inflation is stabilizing and headed down

Dow futures rocket higher by 700 points after lighter-than-expected inflation report

The consumer price index rose just 0.1% from the previous month, and increased 7.1% from a year ago, the Labor Department reported Tuesday. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been expecting a 0.3% monthly increase and a 7.3% 12-month increase. Excluding volatile food and energy prices, so-called core CPI rose 0.2% on the month and 6% on an annual basis, compared to respective estimates of 0.3% and 6.1%.

Traders are largely pricing in a 50-basis point increase, a slight decline from the previous four hikes. (1 basis point equals 0.01%.)

That expectation is unlikely to change because of Tuesday’s CPI report, however. The lighter numbers could mean the Fed doesn’t end up raising rates as high in the future, giving the economy a fighting chance to avoid a recession in 2023.

Currently ...

Nasdaq +3.79%
S&P +2.82%
Dow +2.17%

[Edward64]

Well, the good news didn't help for long. Markets are in the slumps even though Fed acted as expected with the +.5 basis pt hike and the message that hikes will continue albeit not at the .75 rate. But the Fed target did increase, so there's worry the hikes will continue longer than expected.

Markets are worried about a recession now. Q3, 2022 GDP was 2.9% so if there is going to be (another) official recession, it'll be Q2, 2023 at the earliest (e.g. 2 straight quarters of negative GDP).

I've missed many calls before, but don't see negative GDP for Q4, 2022 which means Q3, 2023 is earliest we'll be in a recession. A long 6 months of same old stuff.

On another negative note, checked my Zillow price. We've dropped 11% from the high. Still happy (relative to pre-pandemic) but it sucks.

[Edward64]

1 step forward, 2 steps back

[Ksyrup]

When the real thing outdoes the satire.

I can’t top this https://t.co/pmjwYqhhoG

— New York Times Pitchbot (@DougJBalloon) December 26, 2022

[Edward64]

Frak 2022. Horrible year

All three of the major averages suffered their worst year since 2008 and snapped a three-year win streak. The Dow fared the best of the indexes in 2022, down about 8.8%. The S&P 500 sank 19.4%, and is more than 20% below its record high, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq tumbled 33.1%.

Trying to think positive for 2023

[albionmoonlight]

Originally Posted by Edward64

Frak 2022. Horrible year



Trying to think positive for 2023

At least we aren’t going into 2023 with a bubble

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

At least we aren’t going into 2023 with a bubble

Hah, but we are going into 2023 with an expected (re)recession.

[flere-imsaho]

With things like wealth inequality being what they are, and so many younger (and even middle-aged, now) people being priced out of what their parents thought were "successful" lives, I'm not even sure what recession means anymore to the U.S.

Yes, it could mean more layoffs and more income insecurity and less opportunities for most, but hasn't that been the standard for many, if not most, Americans, for 40+ years?

Edit: Yes, I'm aware what the technical definition of a recession is, before someone points that out.

[Edward64]

Eating our traditional New Years Day black eyed peas + collard greens for dinner.

It didn't work for 2022 but my wife said maybe it would have been much worse if we hadn't eaten it

Do your part. Doesn't need to be fresh, canned is okay.

According to legendary Southern food researcher John Egerton's Southern Food: At Home, On the Road, In History, black-eyed peas are associated with a "mystical and mythical power to bring good luck." As for collard greens, they're green like money and will ensure you a financially prosperous new year.

[Drake]

In my neck of the woods, the tradition is corned beef, cabbage, and black-eyed peas.

It's a serviceable meal, but I might switch to collard greens if I knew what the hell those were.

[Edward64]

Thanks for helping out!

See below. Can buy them fresh or in a can. Not great by itself, you have to salt them or cook them with salted ham/bacon.



Coincidently, I did have corn beef (but no cabbage) for lunch.

[GrantDawg]

It was pork, collards, and black-eyed peas for us. I degontely had mine, along with squash and onions with corn bread. I felt so southern a put the dog in truck and took him to the "crick".

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[Edward64]

If we can get 2 more to contribute (or total of 5), then we'll be good.

The fate of 2023 markets hang in the balance.

[NobodyHere]

Et tu 2023?

[albionmoonlight]

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by NobodyHere

Et tu 2023?

If you didn’t eat your black eyed peas and greens, I don’t want to hear you bitchin

[NobodyHere]

Originally Posted by Edward64

If you didn’t eat your black eyed peas and greens, I don’t want to hear you bitchin

I'll pick some collard greens up the next time I stop at Krogers and try to figure out how to make them.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by NobodyHere

I'll pick some collard greens up the next time I stop at Krogers and try to figure out how to make them.

Just get the canned collard greens & black eyed peas, heat, and serve with cornbread or rice.


BTW too fraking late, needs to be on Jan 1.

[GrantDawg]

Boil them in chicken broth with a little bacon or fat-back. Or just pick up a can of Glory if your store has it.

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[NobodyHere]

I choked down some collard greens tonight. Tomorrow the S&P500 better go up by at least 50.

ETA: And if it does go up by 50 I promise the economic gods that I'll eat the whole can's worth next time.

[flere-imsaho]

Your sacrifice is noted and appreciated, NobodyHere.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by NobodyHere

I choked down some collard greens tonight. Tomorrow the S&P500 better go up by at least 50.

ETA: And if it does go up by 50 I promise the economic gods that I'll eat the whole can's worth next time.

Let us know when your are eating the whole can

[NobodyHere]

Originally Posted by Edward64

Let us know when your are eating the whole can

+50.36

At first I was a doubter of the economic gods, now I'm a true believer.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by NobodyHere

+50.36

At first I was a doubter of the economic gods, now I'm a true believer.

Just think how much better it would have been if you just ate it on Jan 1

[Edward64]

Okay, so everything seemingly in line with expectations. Speculation now is whether the Fed can increase .25% vs expected .5% next time.

I don't know the right answer. We are probably getting to a point where the Fed should be thinking about traditional .25% increases but don't know if we are there yet. Maybe in the next 2-3 rate hikes assuming we continue to see inflation continue the downward trajectory.

Inflation closed out 2022 in a modest retreat, with consumer prices in December posting their biggest monthly decline since early in the pandemic, the Labor Department reported Thursday.

The consumer price index, which measures the cost of a broad basket of goods and services, fell 0.1% for the month, in line with the Dow Jones estimate. That equated to the largest month-over-month decrease since April 2020, as much of the country was in lockdown to combat Covid.

Even with the decline, headline CPI rose 6.5% from a year ago, highlighting the persistent burden that the rising cost of living has placed on U.S. households. However, that was the smallest annual increase since October 2021.

Excluding volatile food and energy prices, so-called core CPI rose 0.3%, also meeting expectations. Core was up 5.7% from a year ago, once again in line.

[Edward64]

Nice day

Jan is turning out to be a decent month so far

[NobodyHere]

That can of collard greens was terrible.

[Edward64]

Yeah collard greens ain’t great by itself. Have to eat it with other stuff

[NobodyHere]

Originally Posted by Edward64

Yeah collard greens ain’t great by itself. Have to eat it with other stuff

Oh I did, but it was still a can of collard greens.

[Edward64]

What did you eat with it?

[NobodyHere]

Dreams of an early retirement.

[Edward64]

Easier as a 2 income couple

And, arguably, with no kids.

[flere-imsaho]

Originally Posted by NobodyHere

Dreams of an early retirement.

Dude, people specifically said to pair the collard greens with ham or bacon.

[GrantDawg]

When I was a kid, mom always served it with fatback. Cooked with a couple slices in it, then she would fry a few slices as well. I can't even find fatback anymore. Fried fatback is different than bacon. It is a very distinct flavor that I do miss, though I'm sure my arteries don't.

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[Edward64]

Earnings season coming up next week. Big Tech layoffs, banking layoffs, talk of .25 vs .50 rate hike, core inflation stabilizing and incrementally going down, mortgage rates going down … all we need now is

Nobody, eat another can to really end Jan on a great note!

(I don’t think I’ve ever had fatback)

[NobodyHere]

Originally Posted by Edward64

Nobody, eat another can to really end Jan on a great note!

I'll eat another can if the SP500 ends 150+ points higher this coming week. (Friday closed at 3972.61)

[flere-imsaho]

Our retirement accounts are now inextricably linked to your consumption of collard greens. No pressure.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

I can't even find fatback anymore. Fried fatback is different than bacon. It is a very distinct flavor that I do miss, though I'm sure my arteries don't.

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You're right, that is difficult to find, at least in the metro / suburban areas.

If you're still in Newton Co (that's the last location I knew), try somewhere like Jasper Co if you happen to be down that way sometime. The more rural, the easier it is to find. Also, try smaller chain / indy grocers.

Will loves the stuff but only gets it when we visit my folks. It's still findable somewhere like Pickens County (where my parents are).

[GrantDawg]

Yeah, still in Newton. We now have TWO Publix. We have become uptown.

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