2015-2016 Republican Primary Season - Trump Courts the Conservatives

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by stevew

Kind of funny how that basically stacks up with polling numbers. May as well call it "who I'm voting for".

Which kinda conveniently matches pretty much what I've said about the debates from the get-go

[flere-imsaho]

LOL

If last night’s Republican debate, in Las Vegas, had been the prize fight between Donald Trump and Ted Cruz that CNN promoted it as, many of the attendees would have demanded their money back, and rightly so. After more than two hours of ho-hum Obama bashing—and equally predictable talk about getting tough with ISIS and its sympathizers, enlivened only by Jeb Bush’s efforts to land a haymaker on Trump’s double chin—the New York billionaire gave the game away. He and Cruz, whom the campaign wallahs have now anointed as his most serious challenger, had met in a private sit-down a few days ago, where, evidently, they agreed not to throw any punches at each other—not in public, at least.

Thus when CNN’s Dana Bash asked Trump about his recent statement that Cruz had behaved “like a maniac” in the Senate, Trump came over all soft and gooey. “Let me tell you something,” he said. “I’ve gotten to know him over the last three or four days, and he has a wonderful temperament.” With that, Trump leaned to his left toward Cruz, who was sporting a Princeton-eating-club grin rather than his dark Joseph McCarthy stare, and patted him on the back. “He’s just fine,” Trump said. “Don’t worry about it.”

Yes, the fix was in. When Bash asked Cruz about his statement to donors that Trump didn’t have the judgment to have his finger on the nuclear trigger, the Texan started waffling on about his two young daughters, Ronald Reagan, and some other stuff. For a second time, Bash asked him straight out whether he believed Trump had the judgment to be President. All Cruz would say was “That is a judgment for every voter to make. What I can tell you is all nine of the people here would make an infinitely better Commander-in-Chief than Barack Obama or Hillary Clinton.”

I can't take credit for this, but I read elsewhere someone describe this as the two biggest stacks at the poker table agreeing not to attack each other until they can push the small stacks out.

[flere-imsaho]

This is for all of you who liked Christie's performance:

[Ben E Lou]

Well, it looks like Trump has landed a key endorsement...

Putin praises 'bright and talented' Donald Trump - CNNPolitics.com

[albionmoonlight]

Originally Posted by flere-imsaho

This is for all of you who liked Christie's performance:

#Christie4Prez

[JonInMiddleGA]

So WaPo has it as
Trump 38
Cruz 15
Rubio 12
Carson 12
....
Bush 5 and the rest of the clown car behind that

If we consider Trump/Cruz/Carson as the "non-establishment" guys, that's 62% of the support ... but people still think there's an establishment guy going to win ?

[ISiddiqui]

How really 'non-establishment' is Cruz though? Albeit, if he can convince people he's not, that can really work for him.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by ISiddiqui

How really 'non-establishment' is Cruz though? Albeit, if he can convince people he's not, that can really work for him.

That's a fair argument, I'm on board with it and all, but in terms of perception I think he goes in that pile.

Any of the trio could implode tomorrow of course, but doesn't it make more sense that their supporters would end up landing with one of the other two? Or if two implode that the third is the beneficiary?

At some point perhaps the most realistic narrative isn't "who will beat the upstarts" but rather "how many of the establishment/leadership will survive a primary challenge"

[ISiddiqui]

Well I'm perfectly sure that if Rubio collapses (and he doesn't appear to be actually campaigning very well) that the establishment folks behind him, who were behind Jeb before him, will merely attach themselves to Cruz... and he'll be the new establishment figure.

[JPhillips]

It will be fascinating if Cruz really takes the not-Trump spot. He hates the establishment and the establishment hates him, but they'll need each other.

[stevew]

I wish i knew what it was about Cruz's face that makes me want to throw violent haymakers in his direction.

[lighthousekeeper]

Originally Posted by stevew

I wish i knew what it was about Cruz's face that makes me want to throw violent haymakers in his direction.

seriously. how did such a punchable face get so far in politics?

[JPhillips]

His nose reminds me of cartoon Nixon.

[Ben E Lou]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

Any of the trio could implode tomorrow of course, but doesn't it make more sense that their supporters would end up landing with one of the other two? Or if two implode that the third is the beneficiary?

To some degree.

If Trump somehow implodes*, Cruz is the clear #1 beneficiary, with everyone else being also-rans.
If Cruz implodes, I'd expect his supporters to split maybe 60 Trump/35 Carson/5 Other.
I see Trump getting very few Carson supporters. I'd expect to see those go to Cruz, and maybe to Huckabee if he's still around. Seems like a very different crowd and style.



*--Can that even happen at this point? At least among the people behind him, he seems to be at dead girl/live boy level.

[Marc Vaughan]

Originally Posted by Ben E Lou

To some degree.

If Trump somehow implodes*, Cruz is the clear #1 beneficiary, with everyone else being also-rans.
If Cruz implodes, I'd expect his supporters to split maybe 60 Trump/35 Carson/5 Other.
I see Trump getting very few Carson supporters. I'd expect to see those go to Cruz, and maybe to Huckabee if he's still around. Seems like a very different crowd and style.]

I'm kind of scared you see so many people as potential Trump supporters in all honesty, I'm hoping his particular brand of diatribe is a minority viewpoint ..

[Dutch]

Originally Posted by Ben E Lou

Well, it looks like Trump has landed a key endorsement...

Putin praises 'bright and talented' Donald Trump - CNNPolitics.com

Probably when he destroyed Jeb with the Warren Sapp line, "You so tough? Put a jersey on!"

They are made for each other.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by Ben E Lou

I see Trump getting very few Carson supporters. I'd expect to see those go to Cruz, and maybe to Huckabee if he's still around. Seems like a very different crowd and style.[/size]

Eh, you could combine Carson & Huck and they're still an also ran at this point.

I'd put the Carson/Trump crossover at more like 30-40 percent in the case of a Carson implosion though, the backers I see of the former have Trump as their 2nd choice pretty often.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by Ben E Lou

*--Can that even happen at this point? At least among the people behind him, he seems to be at dead girl/live boy level.

There's at least one obvious way it could happen (the one I most expect really):

He could recant or backslide.

actually, two ways:
A backroom recording that had him explaining that this was all a gigantic WWE-style swerve and detailing his REAL plans.

Aside from those, most of his supporters will either back a 3rd-party Trump (because there will be major begging & pleading for that to happen if necessary) or nobody come November.

[flere-imsaho]

At this point it seems to me that the most likely thing to sink Trump is his people simply not making it out to the polls:

Among Americans who identify as Republicans, polls suggest Trump has 25% to 30% of the vote. A survey from Pew Research conducted at the end of September provided more detail about who those individuals are: they are likely to be less educated and less affluent compared to the support base of other candidates.

Yet Trump’s support base could be problematic on election day. In 2008, Americans who didn’t graduate from college were significantly less likely to register to vote compared to those who did graduate.

It does look like Trump supporters tend to be less educated. But the more detailed the demographic data, the less reliable it is, given that pollsters are struggling to find representative samples of Americans to talk to them.

Source.

The other way is simple attrition. At this point in 2007 Giuliani, with 29%, had a 16 point lead on McCain, with Thompson two points above McCain. At this point in 2011 Romney and Gingrich were tied at roughly 22% with Cain sliding down through 18.

Of course it would take more attrition, as Trump is at 33 with Cruz in second at 16.

[Ben E Lou]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

I'd put the Carson/Trump crossover at more like 30-40 percent in the case of a Carson implosion though, the backers I see of the former have Trump as their 2nd choice pretty often.

Interesting. Maybe it's just my contacts. Every single person I know who is still with Carson is the sort of person for whom decorum is very important. Trump acts "too common" for them. (I've heard/read that precise phrase several times about Trump, always from Carson supporters.) He's very popular with the Cotillion Evangelical types that are probably a bit over-represented in both my social life and social media. I don't really know anyone who doesn't fit that mold who is a Carson supporter, so perhaps I'm projecting that on all Carson supporters.

[Dutch]

I know I will vote for Trump at this point if he's the man. As for Hillary's 10-pt advantage, I dont see how she clings to that sitting on the sidelines or being soft-served my the MSM this whole time. Shes getting fat, dumb, and happy and Trump will crush that.

I'm really starting to get the feeling that Trump is about to pull off the impossible...defeat the GOP and DNC machines in a straight gangsta bully run. Americans are eating this up.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by Ben E Lou

Interesting. Maybe it's just my contacts. Every single person I know who is still with Carson is the sort of person for whom decorum is very important. Trump acts "too common" for them. (I've heard/read that precise phrase several times about Trump, always from Carson supporters.) He's very popular with the Cotillion Evangelical types that are probably a bit over-represented in both my social life and social media. I don't really know anyone who doesn't fit that mold who is a Carson supporter, so perhaps I'm projecting that on all Carson supporters.

My remaining Carsonites are mostly people who got behind him very early & just haven't quite shaken it off yet. Pre-Trump mega-emergence basically. I think Cruz would get the bulk of them but Trump would capture a decent portion.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by Dutch

defeat the GOP and DNC machines in a straight gangsta bully run. Americans are eating this up.

Making it quite possibly the single most beautiful run in U.S. history.

[Thomkal]

Originally Posted by stevew

I wish i knew what it was about Cruz's face that makes me want to throw violent haymakers in his direction.

He looks and sounds like a used-car salesmen to me-that or a guy who comes to your door wanting to talk about God.

[Dutch]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

Making it quite possibly the single most beautiful run in U.S. history.

It would definitely go down in the history books. It will also effictively destroy the GOP as we know it and quite possibly the DNC propaganda machine (MSM). That's why I think he will energize Americans...they are tired of the bullshit. Now, whether he does anything with it or not is another story.

[Subby]

The silver lining of Trump winning is that it would almost immediately end our meaningless lives.

[Dutch]

Originally Posted by Subby

The silver lining of Trump winning is that it would almost immediately end our meaningless lives.

That's the spirit!

[lighthousekeeper]

Originally Posted by Subby

The silver lining of Trump winning is that it would almost immediately end our meaningless lives.

I hope he puts this on a bumper sticker.

[Dutch]

Originally Posted by lighthousekeeper

I hope he puts this on a bumper sticker.

Ugh, I wouldn't be able to stand that bumpersticker for 8 whole years...

[Solecismic]

No, he'd just shut off the part of the internet where they have bumper stickers.

[Edward64]

Seriously guys & gals, if are Rep and Trump wins the GOP nomination - will you support him or sit on the sidelines?

[vex]

Sit.

[Solecismic]

Originally Posted by Edward64

Seriously guys & gals, if are Rep and Trump wins the GOP nomination - will you support him or sit on the sidelines?

I am firmly independent and I would vote third party. But I live in a blue state where it wouldn't matter. If the Republicans want my vote, and I'm leaning this way for the first time in my life, they will have to put up a serious candidate.

[NobodyHere]

I like Trump more than Hilary. Although in that situation I would likely vote 3rd party.

I bet the late night talk show hosts are praying for a Trump victory though.

[stevew]

Originally Posted by Thomkal

He looks and sounds like a used-car salesmen to me-that or a guy who comes to your door wanting to talk about God.

yeah, he looks like he could really talk up a potluck supper.

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by NobodyHere

I like Trump more than Hilary. Although in that situation I would likely vote 3rd party.

I bet the late night talk show hosts are praying for a Trump victory though.

The campaign versus Hillary would be entertaining. I just don't think an actual Trump presidency would be described as that ("disaster" and "train-wreck" more comes to mind). Funnily, I would totally vote for Ivanka Trump. Now that is a Trump I'm willing to back (or front, or sideways, or handstand)

[JPhillips]

If you're thinking about voting for Trump, why not go all the way and vote for Vermin Supreme?

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by Edward64

Seriously guys & gals, if are Rep and Trump wins the GOP nomination - will you support him or sit on the sidelines?

I honestly don't even know if I qualify for the question.

I just know he's currently the only candidate that I'm sure I could vote for if the election were held tonight.

[BishopMVP]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

Making it quite possibly the single most beautiful run in U.S. history.

Recent maybe. But I can only imagine how you'd feel about a Teddy Roosevelt or Andrew Jackson.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by BishopMVP

Recent maybe. But I can only imagine how you'd feel about a Teddy Roosevelt or Andrew Jackson.

I think it might be tougher to pull off today though, the machines having more sophisticated resources, greater reach & 24/7 presence.

[Edward64]

Too little, too late but some points for trying.

Log In - The New York Times

CONTOOCOOK, N.H. — Jeb Bush was halfway through an early morning town-hall-style event here Saturday when he paused, announcing he had something he wanted to get off his chest.

“Donald Trump is a jerk,” Mr. Bush said, seemingly unprompted, to applause.

“You cannot insult your way to the presidency,” he said. “You can’t disparage women, Hispanics, disabled people. Who is he kidding? This country is far better than that. The idea that he’s actually running for president and insulting people is deeply discouraging, to be honest with you, and I think we should reject that out of hand. I hope you’ll reject it by voting for me, but a guy like that should not be the front-running candidate of our great party.”

Finally finished, Mr. Bush exhaled with a laugh: “I gave myself therapy there.”

Therapy, maybe — but also a deliberate move by Mr. Bush, whose strategy to save his faltering campaign now involves attacking Mr. Trump, forcefully and frequently.

[wustin]

Wonder how the Establishment feels with Trump and Cruz leading the way. If they really hate Trump, they should give up on Rubio and back Cruz.

[larrymcg421]

I think the real damage Trump might cause to the GOP is convincing enough of their voters that Cruz is the sane option.

[Solecismic]

Rubio is starting to take a lot more fire for appearing to want to take both sides of controversial issues (immigration, deficit spending). After it came up in the debates, even if it's standard practice for a sitting senator running for president, he needs to be at every important vote. I'm starting to lose my enthusiasm for him.

I don't think this is over by any means for Christie and Bush, though New Hampshire will be critical for both.

[Dutch]

As we continue down the road of..."When will Trump lose his gains.." I'm just seeing any loss of enthusiasm for other candidates as a condition of Trump's lingering status as the 2016 storyline of choice.

[Ben E Lou]

Graham is out.

[flere-imsaho]

Kinda thought he'd stay in through SC, even if to just be a spoiler.

[Thomkal]

Originally Posted by Ben E Lou

Graham is out.

thank god

[flere-imsaho]

Briefly, here's my speculation as to a path to victory for the remaining (though not all) candidates, ordered based on today's RCP polling average:

Trump - currently @ 34.4%

Translate polls into votes & wins. It's that simple. He trails Cruz in Iowa but leads the field in NH. Current analysis says his supporters are of a demographic that doesn't turn out. If that's true, he probably needs to win either Iowa or NH or risk his supporters not turning out in other states. But Trump has bucked all the other common wisdom, so....

Cruz - @ 17.1%

Continue to position himself as the 2nd choice for Trump supporters and hope that the Trump train derails itself. He's already clearly picked up a bunch of former Carson supporters, but I don't see who else from the field has supporters who would view him as their 2nd choice (maybe Paul, but he only has 2.4% anyway).

Alternatively, keep Rubio, Bush & Christie enough at bay so that the GOP Establishment has no choice but to annoit him to avoid Trump. But are Rubio, Bush & Christie supporters going to vote for Cruz as a 2nd choice, or simply stay home?

Rubio - @ 12.3%

He's currently in a downward trend, which seems to indicate he's hit his ceiling until people start dropping out. So he needs a LOT of candidates (i.e. anyone with a passing familiarity with GOP "moderation" - Bush, Christie, Fiorina, Graham, Pataki) to drop out, and soon.

Alternatively, hang in there long enough to make a late delegate surge as the GOP electorate wakes up and realizes it doesn't want Trump or Cruz. But is that enough of the remaining GOP electorate to push him over?

Carson - @ 10%

The protest vote that's currently with Trump and probably half of Cruz's support has to go to him via them dropping out, which seems exceptionally unlikely. Given this and his clear downward trend, I really can't see a path forward, barring some sort of miracle.

Bush - @ 4.6%

Rubio & Cruz dropping out prior to Super Tuesday is probably the bare minimum (or them losing their support and him gaining it). A resurgent Christie doesn't help him at all.

Alternatively, there's plenty of indicate (from 538 at least) that the electorate doesn't really wake up until 2 weeks before Iowa. So maybe there's an awakening and Bush surges back into to race. A lot of ifs there, though.

Christie - @ 3.1%

I could see him picking up Cruz, Rubio & Bush votes should they drop out. But it requires that they drop out and Trump melts down.

Fiorina & Paul - @ 2.4% each

Has anyone come from this low at Christmas to get the nomination?



Overall

The biggest wild card is simply whether or not Trump's supporters turn out. If they do (and nothing untoward happens to his polling in the next 6 weeks), it looks very difficult for anyone else to win save something truly dramatic happening like a "grand bargain" between the rest to align behind a single anti-Trump candidate (which carries its own significant risks).

If Trump's supporters don't turn out, and we assume they mostly don't vote at all, then it's shaping up to be a Cruz (anti-establishment) vs. Rubio/Christie/Bush (establishment) race. If two of those three drop out early in support of the other, they could make a race of it with Cruz in this scenario, but we've already seen the anti-establishment vote looks big for the GOP this year, and it's hard to see one of those 3 cracking through it. At a bare minimum a long, hard slog seems likely.

[JPhillips]

as the GOP electorate wakes up and realizes it doesn't want Trump or Cruz

I keep seeing this idea, but where's the evidence that the bulk of the GOP electorate doesn't want someone like Trump or Cruz?