NFL 2021 Regular Season Thread

[MIJB#19]

Originally Posted by MIJB#19

But my current spreadsheet isn't up to that task, It'll require another spreadsheet where I work out all the possible scenarios of those 20 games, which would Excel hopefully be able to calculate as it'll require 3^20 number of scenarios... I think I'm going to pass on that, for this week.

3^33. Yeah, about that. I might be better of brute force looking at it.

[Drake]

Originally Posted by SirFozzie

And Brady TD #700 is a walk off OT winner.

At what point can we start talking about the details of Brady's deal with the devil?

[MIJB#19]

Playoffs Scenarios for week 15

	AFC				NFC
1	New England	9-4		1	Arizona	10-3
2	Tennessee	9-4		2	Green Bay	10-3
3	Kansas	9-4		3	Tampa Bay	10-3
4	Baltimore	8-5		4	Dallas	9-4
5	LA Chargers	8-5		5	LA Rams	9-4
6	Indianapolis	7-6		6	San Francisco	7-6
7	Buffalo	7-6		7	Washington	6-7
8	Cleveland	7-6		8	Philadelphia	6-7
9	Cincinnati	7-6		9	Minnesota	6-7
10	Denver	7-6		10	Atlanta	6-7
11	Pittsburgh	6-6-1		11	New Orleans	6-7
12	Las Vegas	6-7		12	Carolina	5-8
13	Miami	6-7		13	Seattle	5-8
14	NY Jets	3-10		14	NY Giants	4-9
15	Houston	2-11		15	Chicago	4-9
16	Jacksonville	2-11		16	Detroit	1-11-1

Tennessee
win + Indianapolis loss -> division champions
Tennessee has head-to-head tie-breaker over Indianapolis.


Dallas
win + Washington-Philadelphia tie -> division champions
win + Philadelphia win + 1 or more from these 6: NY Jets loss/tie, Denver loss/tie, Detroit loss/tie, New England win/tie, LA Chargers win/tie, Minnesota win/tie -> division champions
Washington can still get common games tie-breaker over Dallas (after losing in week 15 and Dallas winning in week 15).
Philadelphia (after losing in week 15 and Dallas winning in week 15) can still get strength of victory tie-breaker over Dallas, requiring good results from NY Jets, Denver and Detroit and bad results from New England, LA Chargers and Minnesota (Philadelphia needs the first three to combine for 12-0 and the last three to combine for 0-12 in weeks 15 through 18). If that ends up tied, Dallas will have strength of schedule tie-breaker over Philadelphia.


Green Bay
win/tie -> division champions
loss + Minnesota loss/tie -> division champions
loss + Minnesota win + at least 2 of 3 from: San Francisco loss, Philadelphia-Washington tie, New Orleans loss/tie -> playoffs
Minnesota will have head-to-head tie-breaker over Green Bay if they end up tied at 10-7.
Green Bay has head-to-head tie-breaker over San Francisco, or conference record tie-breaker over San Francisco in any three-way tie (including a three-way with New Orleans).


Tampa Bay
win/tie -> division champions
loss + New Orleans loss/tie -> division champions
loss + New Orleans win + Washington-Philadelphia tie + Minnesota loss/tie -> playoffs
New Orleans will have head-to-head tie-breaker over Tampa Bay if they end up tied at 10-7.
Tampa Bay has head-to-head tie-breaker over Atlanta.
There cannot be a three-way tie due to the Atlanta at New Orleans game in week 18.
San Francisco will have conference record tie-breaker over Tampa Bay if they are tied at 10-7 (or better).


Arizona
win/tie -> playoffs
loss + at least 1 of 3 from: Washington-Philadelphia tie, Minnesota loss/tie, Atlanta and/or New Orleans loss/tie -> playoffs
Arizona has head-to-head tie-breaker over San Francisco, still in three-way involving LA Rams.
San Francisco isn't mentioned because if Atlanta and New Orleans both win, that also means San Francisco lost to Atlanta.


LA Rams
win + at least 1 of 3 from: Washington-Philadelphia tie, Minnesota loss/tie, Atlanta and/or New Orleans loss/tie -> playoffs
San Francisco isn't mentioned because if Atlanta and New Orleans both win, that also means San Francisco lost to Atlanta.


I can't see a scenario where New England, Tennessee or Kansas wins and all the other results in the AFC fall their way to secure at least a wild card in week 15.

I mentioned a Washington-Philadelphia tie several times, the game itself makes it that the loser won't be able to reach a 10-7 record anymore, but a tied game will make them both end up at 9-7-1 at best.

[Thomkal]

Arizona did not clinch last night.

[albionmoonlight]

My dislike of bro-genius McVay and my desire to see him crash and burn is fighting my happiness of seeing Stafford finally in an offense that lets him show his talent.

[Ksyrup]

Not that the Rams aren't a good team, but I fully expected Arizona to win that game. Crazy W/L differential between home and road - 7-0 on the road and 3-3 at home.

[NobodyHere]

I just like how the Colts got moved into a playoff spot without having to play a game this week.

[Thomkal]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

Not that the Rams aren't a good team, but I fully expected Arizona to win that game. Crazy W/L differential between home and road - 7-0 on the road and 3-3 at home.

yeah its usually very much the other way around for them-can't explain it, just glad they play in Detroit next week

[albionmoonlight]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/sport...investigation/

Dan Snyder tried to derail the NFL's WFT investigation.

My prediction: The NFL is going to make Snyder the fall guy for everything and give him the Don Sterling treatment. And then they will be like "Look at all the horrible stuff that he did that isn't a problem with the NFL anymore b/c he is gone."

By January 1, 2025 or sooner, I predict that the WFT will be under new ownership.

[QuikSand]

i like both the prediction and the outcome

[molson]

Me too, but, it sure seems like everything the NFL has done with this whole thing is intended to protect Dan Snyder. Like he's more powerful than the league itself.

[Brian Swartz]

Originally Posted by Thomkal

just glad they play in Detroit next week

Very little upside to that game for them I would think. At least if it was a traditional bye week instead of an on-field one, they would have the chance to get healthier rather than risk key injuries.

[Thomkal]

Originally Posted by Brian Swartz

Very little upside to that game for them I would think. At least if it was a traditional bye week instead of an on-field one, they would have the chance to get healthier rather than risk key injuries.

yeah Hopkins and Conner both got MRIs today. I hope if its a blowout they will take Murray out to try to keep him healthy

[Honolulu_Blue]

Originally Posted by Thomkal

yeah Hopkins and Conner both got MRIs today. I hope if its a blowout they will take Murray out to try to keep him healthy

They could sit Murray, Hopkins and Conner and beat Detroit easily. The Lions are pretty terrible at their best and last week they were missing 20% of their roster. They’ll get a little more healthy this week post-COVID outbreak, but it still won’t matter.

[Brian Swartz]

Is it bad that I'm already 'looking forward' to seeing how the Lions ruin/run Aidan Hutchinson out of town?

[Solecismic]

Originally Posted by Brian Swartz

Is it bad that I'm already 'looking forward' to seeing how the Lions ruin/run Aidan Hutchinson out of town?

He seems like a decent guy. I hope that the Lions give him an unusually bad evaluation, but Houston is a bad situation as well. Maybe Jacksonville, once they get someone in there who knows what to do with Lawrence?

Right there you have three of the four franchises never to play in a Super Bowl. It really isn't coaching alone or the players alone. That level of futility requires poor ownership.

[miami_fan]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

https://www.washingtonpost.com/sport...investigation/

Dan Snyder tried to derail the NFL's WFT investigation.

My prediction: The NFL is going to make Snyder the fall guy for everything and give him the Don Sterling treatment. And then they will be like "Look at all the horrible stuff that he did that isn't a problem with the NFL anymore b/c he is gone."

By January 1, 2025 or sooner, I predict that the WFT will be under new ownership.

What would be the catalyst for this happening? Given what he has been allowed to do so far, he would have to been caught knocking his wife out on tape Ray Rice style. And even then he may only get an 18 months suspension similar to the one he has now.

[miami_fan]

Originally Posted by miami_fan

Urban Meyer formally announces Jaguars' 30-person coaching staff | FOX Sports

What exactly was the sell of getting Urban Meyer.for the Jags? I understand the sell of Chip Kelly, Kliff Kingsbury and even Steve Spurrier. Offensive geniuses whose system would work in the NFL. I even get Saban and Greg Schiano. Defensive gurus who at least spent some time on NFL staffs. At the very least, you might think Saban or Schiano was one of those hardcore disciplinarians. Whether you agree or disagree, the sell for these guys was them impacting one side of the ball or the other. Is Meyer in any of these camps?

The reason I ask is looking back over the Jags staff and there are guys like Darrell Bevell and Brian Schottenheimer are on the offensive side. I assume this is the side where you would expect the biggest impact from Meyer but you have two experienced coaches that are not from the Meyer coaching tree and I would not expect to run Meyer's style of offense (if he has one).

Wouldn't that be something that he runs himself or at least has an offensive coordinator familiar with his system run for him? I compare it to the Cardinals. That is a Kliff Kingsbury offense that Kliff Kingsbury runs to the point that there is no offensive coordinator at all.

[albionmoonlight]

Originally Posted by miami_fan

What would be the catalyst for this happening? Given what he has been allowed to do so far, he would have to been caught knocking his wife out on tape Ray Rice style. And even then he may only get an 18 months suspension similar to the one he has now.

The biggest thing that he has going for him is that team owners really really like to preserve the norm of never being forced out. They like the idea that they will get to own their team as long as they want.

But, sometimes, a Don Sterling situation happens and it just goes too far.

I don't know what one event would change things with Snyder. But I also don't think that the Washington Post runs this story without leaks/permission from the higher ups in the NFL. The fact that the story came out is what makes me think that certain people wanted this story to come out.

I am guessing that all of the secret findings of the WFT investigation have been talked about in back rooms by the Maras and Joneses and Rooneys for a while. And then you start replacing some old guard owners like Jerry Richardson with new blood like David Tepper who might care more about making $$ than protecting perverts, I can see how sentiments might have turned.

How does an owner like Snyder get pushed out? Slowly at first. Then all at once.

[Solecismic]

It will be interesting, especially if Bezos becomes the new owner as has been rumored for a while now. If the NFL wants this, obviously the Post will print whatever the NFL wants it to print.

I'm not a Gruden fan at all, but I would hope his lawsuit could reveal some of this relationship. Might as well see all the emails, now that the door is open.

[Thomkal]

Originally Posted by Thomkal

yeah Hopkins and Conner both got MRIs today. I hope if its a blowout they will take Murray out to try to keep him healthy

It looks like a sprain for Hopkins that will keep him out for the regular season, but he is getting a second opinion. Conner is day to day

[RainMaker]

Another leak on Meyer today. Sort of wonder if this is done on purpose so that ownership can find a way out of a terrible contract.

Originally Posted by miami_fan

What exactly was the sell of getting Urban Meyer.for the Jags?

Terrible owner who thinks being a successful college coach translates to the NFL. Different leagues and different skill levels.

[albionmoonlight]

Josh Lambo is accusing urban Meyer of having kicked him in training camp. The Jaguars remain a joke of a franchise. Goddell should invoke some sort of for the good of the game clause and get Trevor Lawrence out of there before they ruin him.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

Josh Lambo is accusing urban Meyer of having kicked him in training camp. The Jaguars remain a joke of a franchise. Goddell should invoke some sort of for the good of the game clause and get Trevor Lawrence out of there before they ruin him.

If Goodell was interested in "the good of the game", he'd have long ago put an end to letting the inmates run the fucking asylum.

[albionmoonlight]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

If Goodell was interested in "the good of the game", he'd have long ago put an end to letting the inmates run the fucking asylum.

I realize that one of the places that you and I probably have to agree to disagree is on the question of whether an employer should have the right to physically beat their employees with impunity

But, leaving that aside. Either Lambo is just making this up, or Meyer is going around kicking his players. Either version of the story shows that Jax is just a clown car pretending to be a professional football team.

#FreeTrevor

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

I realize that one of the places that you and I probably have to agree to disagree is on the question of whether an employer should have the right to physically beat their employees with impunity

But, leaving that aside. Either Lambo is just making this up, or Meyer is going around kicking his players. Either version of the story shows that Jax is just a clown car pretending to be a professional football team.

#FreeTrevor

I'm picturing - even from the description of a disgruntled former player - a "show kick" more than anything intended to cause any physical distress.

Who knows, maybe Meyer tried to shoot kick the guy and just ain't got the mustard left for it to have any impact but that's not what I'm picturing.

And if a player in pads is bitching about what it sounds likely to have been, it's way beyond time to just shut the whole shitshow of a league down permanently.

[Ksyrup]

I'd fire him for referring to himself as the "head ball coach" more than for the kick, personally.

[Solecismic]

They're football players, not rodeo clowns. If Lambo's story is true, the disrespect is the issue. I don't think that would fly in college these days, either.

I don't know what's going on in Jacksonville, but every story I read gives me the impression Meyer never wanted this job and is doing everything he can to lose it and go back to his happy restaurateur life.

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by Solecismic

They're football players, not rodeo clowns. If Lambo's story is true, the disrespect is the issue. I don't think that would fly in college these days, either.

I don't know what's going on in Jacksonville, but every story I read gives me the impression Meyer never wanted this job and is doing everything he can to lose it and go back to his happy restaurateur life.

He found out he doesn't have a town to cover for him when he lets a coed sit in his lap and grind on him.

[SirFozzie]

Urban Meyer? He gone (officially)

[SirFozzie]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

If Goodell was interested in "the good of the game", he'd have long ago put an end to letting the inmates run the fucking asylum.

The Inmates ARE running the asylum. From the owner's box.

[Ksyrup]

Good riddance. It was a weird hire to begin with. Jacksonville is major UF territory but even UF fans hate Meyer.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Everybody can relax now.

[stevew]

Leftwich to the Jags as their new HC would make a ton of sense.

[spleen1015]

Originally Posted by SirFozzie

Urban Meyer? He gone (officially)

Does this mean he was the source?

[albionmoonlight]

Originally Posted by stevew

Leftwich to the Jags as their new HC would make a ton of sense.

I like that.

[JPhillips]

I'd like to put my name out there as available to fuck up a franchise for a year while making 70 mil.

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

I'd like to put my name out there as available to fuck up a franchise for a year while making 70 mil.

I'd do it for 35 million.

[Ksyrup]

When you're mentioned in the same sentence as Bobby Petrino, that's not great. But even Bobby left on his own for another job.

[albionmoonlight]

I wonder if the Lambo thing gave the Jags reason to fire him "for cause," which would keep them from having to pay the rest of the contract.

I have no idea how that all really works. But I can see the Jags jumping on that as the reason to do it if they thought that it could save them some money.

At a minimum, it might encourage Urban to settle for less than full value to keep the incident from being litigated in the press.

[molson]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

I wonder if the Lambo thing gave the Jags reason to fire him "for cause," which would keep them from having to pay the rest of the contract.

I have no idea how that all really works. But I can see the Jags jumping on that as the reason to do it if they thought that it could save them some money.

At a minimum, it might encourage Urban to settle for less than full value to keep the incident from being litigated in the press.

The timing of that, and a Thursday AM departure before a Sunday game, that seems like a very good bet.

How much is a verbally and physically abusive disgraced NFL coach worth in the college football landscape these days? $120 million maybe?

[Ksyrup]

Next year's season tickets go on sale next week too, so someone on twitter suggested that could be part of the timing. Buy tickets expecting a fresh start under a new coach, I guess.

[Ksyrup]

Someone's angling to bypass Fox Sports and go straight for a Fox News gig, it appears...

Think the Meyers are about to pivot to subverting democracy pic.twitter.com/BUhQijvxp6

— lukezim (@lukezim) December 16, 2021

[albionmoonlight]

Kraken rum has to be so pissed that it hasn't become the MAGA spirt of choice yet.

[BYU 14]

Dude is not a good person, never has been, unless being an arrogant, self absorbed, adultering, douchebag who protects killers and abusers to win football games is now considered good???

Met him once at a coaches clinic, which I may have mentioned before. One of the most egotistical pricks I have ever met in the coaching profession, and that is saying something. Even outshined Rich Rod in that area.

[molson]

Urban was done dirty by that notorious tree-hugging socialist bastard, Shad Khan.

[NobodyHere]

Originally Posted by BYU 14

Dude is not a good person, never has been, unless being an arrogant, self absorbed, adultering, douchebag who protects killers and abusers to win football games is now considered good???

Always has been. If the Jags were playoff contenders no one would give a nickel about the stories coming out about Urban.

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by BYU 14

Even outshined Rich Rod in that area.

Oh do tell. I'm always down for a good Rich Rod story. There's so many and they never get old.

[BYU 14]

Originally Posted by Atocep

Oh do tell. I'm always down for a good Rich Rod story. There's so many and they never get old.

I got two LOL. We are at the Glazier Clinic in Phoenix would be 8-9 years ago I believe, but it was after his first season at UofA and he was a speaker. A coach I know from another HS and one from our staff both tried to interact with him.

The coach from the other HS encountered him after his talk in the bathroom and asked him a question as they were standing at the urinal, yeah, kinda tacky, but Rich Rod looked at him and said "Well, I can answer your question, but I would have to turn to you and finish pissing on your leg" My buddy laughed, as if it was a joke, and Rich Rod then finished and said "there is a reason we take questions after we talk, so we don't have to answer them here, speak up next time" and walked off. (Again, may not be word for word, but you get the gist.

Later when he was at the bar our guy asked him about what type of coverages gave him issues and he replied "Nothing you could come up with at your level" He then asked the bartender if he could have drinks sent up to his room where he could get some peace and walked off.

Conversely, Todd Graham was early in his ASU stint and also spoke, one of the nicest, most approachable guys you would ever meet. Made it easy on who to root for in the duel in the desert game LOL.

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by BYU 14

I got two LOL. We are at the Glazier Clinic in Phoenix would be 8-9 years ago I believe, but it was after his first season at UofA and he was a speaker. A coach I know from another HS and one from our staff both tried to interact with him.

The coach from the other HS encountered him after his talk in the bathroom and asked him a question as they were standing at the urinal, yeah, kinda tacky, but Rich Rod looked at him and said "Well, I can answer your question, but I would have to turn to you and finish pissing on your leg" My buddy laughed, as if it was a joke, and Rich Rod then finished and said "there is a reason we take questions after we talk, so we don't have to answer them here, speak up next time" and walked off. (Again, may not be word for word, but you get the gist.

Later when he was at the bar our guy asked him about what type of coverages gave him issues and he replied "Nothing you could come up with at your level" He then asked the bartender if he could have drinks sent up to his room where he could get some peace and walked off.

Conversely, Todd Graham was early in his ASU stint and also spoke, one of the nicest, most approachable guys you would ever meet. Made it easy on who to root for in the duel in the desert game LOL.

That sounds 100% on brand and this would have been after he was humbled a bit after his time at Michigan. The Rich stories are never ending though. It seems like there's a million of them.

Graham was a guy I always heard good things about from his brief time at WVU on Rich's staff. Butch Jones, on the other than, was always described as Rich but weirder.