The Stock Market thread

[Edward64]

And with CNY, let’s further test out the hypothesis that Nobody is our good luck rabbits foot.

Tradition says don’t wash or cut your hair today as that will be washing, throwing away your fortune. Good thing it’s Sun and don’t have to impress anyone.

[GrantDawg]

We are just a big dip from Edward sacrificing virgins.

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[Edward64]

Sure, you go ahead and laugh while you and the rabid fan base go thru your Sat rituals before a game

[flere-imsaho]

Like we could find any virgins around here....

[NobodyHere]

Originally Posted by Edward64

And with CNY, let’s further test out the hypothesis that Nobody is our good luck rabbits foot.

Tradition says don’t wash or cut your hair today as that will be washing, throwing away your fortune. Good thing it’s Sun and don’t have to impress anyone.

I took a shower yesterday morning.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by NobodyHere

I'll eat another can if the SP500 ends 150+ points higher this coming week. (Friday closed at 3972.61)

Good day. Get that can ready.

BTW it’s not showering, it’s washing the hair that’s key

[albionmoonlight]

TSLA up ~10% today.

A lot of its decline was precipitated by Musk's antics. But I think that it was also deflating a bubble that never should have blown up that much in the first place. It might simply be a lot of noise that got it to fairly valued now.

I do think that the long term outlook for it as an independent company isn't great as the 900-pound gorilla legacy carmakers get into the EV world.

But it probably ends up being merging with/being taken over by one of the legacy carmakers, so there will still be value for TSLA shareholders.

[NobodyHere]

Originally Posted by Edward64

Good day. Get that can ready.

BTW it’s not showering, it’s washing the hair that’s key

Will the SP500 rise by more than 62.18 points tomorrow? We'll find out!

[Edward64]

It doesn’t look like it. But a damn fine week regardless.

Hang tight Jerome. You kill this inflation dragon even if we go into recession. And Google didn’t need all of those massage therapists anyway

Core PCE inflation, the Fed's preferred measure, rose 4.4% from a year ago, its smallest annual increase since October 2021.

Consumer spending, however, dropped 0.2%, pointing to an economy that was grinding to a halt as 2022 closed.

[Edward64]

Bets are that Jerome will go with .25% hike next week but still warn clearly that rate hikes aren’t done. Still a good sign

[NobodyHere]

I will repeat my wager, if the week goes up SP500 150+ points then I will eat a can of collard greens

[Edward64]

150 com’on man (aka Joe). How about 100?

[Edward64]

Sweet, sweet day.

Sweet, sweet month.

Frak you 2022.

[Edward64]

Another sweet, sweet day.

Wow on FB below, but still a long ways to go to recover from 2022. Hope it holds for a great day tomorrow.

Meta surged more than 19% in extended trading after reporting a fourth-quarter beat on revenue and announcing a $40 billion stock buyback. That helped investors look past losses in the business unit overseeing the metaverse.

[Edward64]

Nice. Think we are over the hump on inflation and it’ll only get better. Some are predicting only one more .25 hike but hope the governors strongly temper that over the next several weeks & manage expectations.

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/02/01/fed-...oint-hike.html

“Inflation data received over the past three months show a welcome reduction in the monthly pace of increases,” Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said in his post-meeting news conference. “And while recent developments are encouraging, we will need substantially more evidence to be confident that inflation is on a sustained downward path.”

“We can now say I think for the first time that the disinflationary process has started,” Powell said, while also noting that it would be “very premature to declare victory or to think we really got this.”

[Edward64]

Nasdaq being (pre 2021) Nasdaq. Missed you old friend.

Looks like the can of collard greens is a possibility.

[NobodyHere]

Originally Posted by Edward64

Nasdaq being (pre 2021) Nasdaq. Missed you old friend.

Looks like the can of collard greens is a possibility.

SP500 needs to go up by 54.24 for it to happen.

[Edward64]

Apple, Amazon and Google all tumbling after hours because of their poor results. My guess is markets will be bad Fri so prob safe.

[Edward64]

Crazy but nice day.

I can’t help but feel the markets are too optimistic in Jerome stopping/reducing rates. I think the .25 will continue for 3+ months on account the job market is so strong.

But enjoying it while it lasts

[Edward64]

And Google continues to underperform the markets.

We’ll probably never know but wonder who’s taking the hit for the Bard demo foopah.

I actually don’t think that mistake was a big deal. But they should have prepped everyone by saying ‘beta, we’ll be fine tuning it over next x months. Let me repeat its beta. And one more time, it’s beta’

[Edward64]

Inflation still with us as slightly higher than predicted.

Maybe Jerome should continue with .5 instead of .25 hikes for the next couple (can’t go back to .75). That’ll probably hurt markets but let’s get some convincing CPI decreases before letting go of the brakes.

The consumer price index, which measures a broad basket of common goods and services, rose 0.5% for the month, which translated to an annual gain of 6.4%. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been looking for respective increases of 0.4% and 6.2%.

[Edward64]

FWIW my Zillow price has remained steady past 4-6 weeks. There was a time when it was dropping a couple times a month.

Still way ahead of pre-pandemic so not gonna complain but hope this is the bottom.

[Hammer]

I have some capital to allocate in to the market and am really struggling to know which direction to turn. The UK FTSE is at an all time high, with banks and energy companies booming. Don't want to buy an ATH. Already over allocated in American tech with Tesla my main position. A lot of uncertainty in Europe, single digit allocation in that direction. All of my crypto allocation was made at the end of Dec 2022.

Any sectors in particular worth researching? I hear a few experts saying India is up and coming. Anyone have an allocation in Indian companies or funds? I have like 0.3% of my portfolio in an Indian fund and it has boomed over the past 12 months, up 40%. Just a general punt to grab some exposure, no real thought behind it.

[QuikSand]

I have been in and out of Dr. Reddy's over recent years as an American-accessible ADR for pharma based in India. I have benefited from some (likely lucky) timing, but I think there's enough there to be worth a look.

In an emerging market, I rather like to play on fundamentals rather than the absolute bleeding edge.

[Edward64]

More less than good inflation news. I don’t know if Jerome will so .25 or .5 (supposedly more likely now) but I’d vote for the .5.

Frakking weird elements in the economy right now.

On the other hand, used cars have dropped quite a bit in latest CPI (but eggs are still up there) but not sure if back to normal.

[Edward64]

I think I read the FTSE is doing well because inflation there does seem to be coming down (multiple months now) whereas in the US, it’s still being stubborn.

I hope the same pattern follows here when we see consistent monthly declines.

[Edward64]

I’m pretty sure I would not want to be a guarantor to my parents mortgage (and inherit) unless I’m sure the value will appreciate more than equity markets or it’s basically paid for.

But don’t think that’s what the below banks are thinking with these multi-generational loans. Don’t do it Chinese Millennials and Gen Z.

China's property crash is prompting banks to offer mortgages to 70-year-olds | CNN Business

According to the Beijing News, a branch of Bank of Communications in the city said borrowers as old as 70 can take out home loans lasting 25 years, which means the upper age limit on its mortgages has been lifted to 95.

But there are also prerequisites: The mortgage needs to be guaranteed by the borrower’s children, and their combined monthly income must be at least twice the monthly mortgage payment.

[flere-imsaho]

Probably says more about the immaturity of the Chinese banking and legal systems, than anything. If I die with a mortgage, it's considered part of my estate, and whomever inherits it needs to deal with it (normally super easy in the sense that the kids would sell the house which would pay off the mortgage and give them a windfall of some sort). If I die without beneficiaries of my will, then the whole thing just goes through probate and the bank likely gets paid (because the house gets sold).

It's stuff like this that has me question the overheated think pieces about how China is going to replace the U.S. as the center of the financial world anytime soon.

[Hammer]

Thanks Quik, makes sense. No way round it, I need to do a bit of research I think.

The UK FTSE is made up largely of energy companies, banks and pharma. The ATH isn't a reflection of the state of our economy. Those Brexit trade deals never came through. Things are not dire, but not great either. A weak pound helps prop the valuations up. But I think those 3 sectors are strong, particularly energy. The likes of Shell and BP are making billions per quarter. Meanwhile the general public are paying around $400 a month on energy. Whilst the government have hit the companies with windfall taxes, they have been relatively light. They want us to become self sufficient, so the "we need the profits to reinvest" helps them stay rich. I believe Norway is our main source of gas. With it in short supply the price goes up. As do the energy companies valuations, the FTSE, and the general publics energy bills.

As for China, no doubt the elites have their hands in many pies across the world. They have done well. It does come across that America is particularly threatened by China, consistently drawing their attention. But the Chinese demographics are real shaky. That 1 child policy is biting them in the ass. A severely aging population, that will have to be carried by a relatively small number of working people. That said, I have no idea about the Chinese social security system, but I suspect they wouldn't be overly generous?

There used to be a narrative here that China was going to become the no.1 in the world within a few decades. But I hear a lot more about India climbing the rankings now. China's growth seems to be slowing on face value, although they are clearly the no.2 economic force.

[flere-imsaho]

World #1 in manufacturing or output or gdp sure, fine.

But there's always this thing about how China or Dubai or India or whatever is going to be the center of the financial universe. Well, they'd have to replace what made the U.S. the center of the financial universe:

• huge import/export economy so the local currency is relevant worldwide
• a banking system with actual controls, rules, transparency and predictability (obviously to the standard the U.S. has now, which can be argued, but whatever)
• a government not inclined to nationalize or freeze your shit on a whim
• a legal system that allows some sort of recourse if people try to swindle you
• government controls that look to preserve the value of capital

It's going to be the U.S. for a really long while. The only thing that could kill it is a few more Trump or Trump-like administrations that dismantle pretty much everything listed above.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

We are just a big dip from Edward sacrificing virgins.

Anyone got any virgins lying around right now? Just want to be ready with 3 down weeks in a row.

Hate to do it but all because a wuss won’t eat some collard greens.

[GrantDawg]

I had fat back tonight. You're welcome.

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[Edward64]

Collard greens is the key, not bacon

[GrantDawg]

Fat back. It is magic.

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[Edward64]

Yup, 23% sounds about right.

But I measure the drop from the high of the year and not from Jan 1. That was sometime in Feb I believe so I do feel that I ‘lost’ more.

In a year marked by stiff economic headwinds, retirement savers paid the price.

Although the average 401(k) balance rose in the fourth quarter of last year, balances ended 2022 down 23% from a year earlier to $103,900, according to a new report by Fidelity Investments, the nation's largest provider of 401(k) plans. The financial services firm handles more than 35 million retirement accounts in total.


The average individual retirement account balance also plunged 20% year over year to $104,000 in the fourth quarter of 2022.

[Edward64]

Just frakking great. Will everyone just stop buying their "wants" (vs needs) for 6 months or so?

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/02/23/stoc...e-updates.html

U.S. stocks fell sharply Friday after the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge showed a stronger-than-expected increase in prices last month.
:
The core personal consumption expenditures price index, the Fed’s preferred measurement of inflation, rose 0.6% in January and 4.7% from the prior year, coming above economists’ expectations.

The report added to worries that the Fed may have to keep rates higher for longer to quell inflationary pressures.

[flere-imsaho]

Are you planning to retire soon, Edward? Serious question - I have it in the back of my mind that you weren't far away, for some reason.

[Edward64]

Yes, I believe it came up on a retirement thread a couple years ago. I retired this Jan.

Not the best time market wise to retire but there’s always that ‘one more year’ argument. Major expenses taken care of and wife and I are pretty sure we can live within the 4% rule of thumb. But sure hope market recovers well this year.

[flere-imsaho]

Ah yes, I remember. I had a co-worker who retired last year in April. Said much the same vis-a-vis timing, but is still glad he did it (mid-60s, in his case).

[GrantDawg]

We have a guy working with us that retired last year at 52.He only works part time. He says it is more just to get out of the house than for the money. Meanwhile, I plan to retire two years after I die.

[Edward64]

One of the better days over the past 3-4 weeks now. Started off in the red but then had an upturn.

Supposedly because of this guy

The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq were under pressure earlier in the day. However, the market turned around in the afternoon after Atlanta Federal Reserve President Raphael Bostic said he’s “firmly” in favor of sticking with quarter-point hikes.

I really hope this is a coordinated effort and Bostic isn't out of line with Jerome.

I'm pessimistic and think Jerome was premature from .75 --> .25. Should prob have been .5. It really doesn't seem inflation is comfortably in a downward trajectory.

[Edward64]

Sweet, sweet day.

Think I'm going to buy canned collard greens this weekend.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by Edward64

Sweet, sweet day.

Think I'm going to buy canned collard greens this weekend.

You see, eating collard greens works!

Jerome to present on Tue & Wed. Jobs report on Fri. My guess is this rally is premature and will fade as Jerome reinforces he will be the adult in the room (re: raising rates to fight inflation), and Jobs report does not show significant decrease.

But happy to be wrong.

[Edward64]

Arrghhhh!

Put the hammer down Jerome! You didn't do enough before you let off the brakes to .25. You missed it again (!) you idiot. Time to go back to .75 or .5.

Persistent inflation > recession, go ahead and cause the damn recession. Forget the finessing a soft landing BS.

Private payrolls rose by 242,000 in February, better than expected, ADP says

Well, okay. Now that I've calmed down, lets see what the Fri Jobs reports say. I'm guessing more of the same though.

[sterlingice]

How awful - workers getting some more bargaining power so that wages may actually increase instead of corporate profits. We'd better stamp that out pronto because the upper middle class might have to pay a little more

SI

[Edward64]

Okay Fri Jobs reports, show a downwards trend.

Thu market started off decent in the black and then sometime noon'ish it started headed south. I thought it was because of Biden's plan but it was because of SVB fears. Fri futures are flat ... waiting on the jobs report.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by Edward64

FWIW my Zillow price has remained steady past 4-6 weeks. There was a time when it was dropping a couple times a month.

Still way ahead of pre-pandemic so not gonna complain but hope this is the bottom.

Hey, my Zillow price went up!

Hoping my post from a month ago was the low.

[Edward64]

Interesting if true. A pause in rate hikes to address the "recent stress" (and then resume hikes later).

Probably a lot of bad stuff to happen (e.g. layoffs) as a result of market concerns and to address the $600B+ of unrealized losses banks have on their books. This may/will temper inflation some by itself.

I don't disagree. I think immediate concerns > inflation concerns > recession.

Goldman Sachs no longer sees a case for the Federal Reserve to deliver a rate hike at its meeting next week, citing “recent stress” in the financial sector.

Goldman Sachs added that they still expect to see 25 basis point hikes in May, June and July, reiterating their terminal rate expectation of 5.25% to 5.5%.

[NobodyHere]

Biden is giving a speech at 9am, let's see if he calms the markets down.

[Edward64]

The markets have been up & down & mixed (and now back to up). Looks like there is still a lot of angst but not panic (so far).

With the SVB and Signature bank closures, I was wondering what is the % of uninsured deposits by bank and found an article written today.

US Banks Have Over $1 Trillion of Uninsured Deposits. Signature Ranks High.

SVB (90%) and Signature (88%) were #1 & #2. First Republic (68%) is #4.

#3 is Citigroup (85%) which was unexpected. I assume majority of those are business accounts that exceed the $250K.

The lowest on the list were 33% for BoA and Goldman Sachs. We do all our regular banking with Wells Fargo (-6.2% right now) and their annual report shows $590B out of $1.5T so lower end of the scale. So if I read the WF report correctly, the actual total amount of uninsured deposits far, far exceeds the article's title of "have over 1T uninsured deposits".

I'm pretty sure this info is available in every bank's financial statement but maybe have a "grade" (like for restaurants) that clearly tells KPI metrics for banks. Make it a requirement to post on bank doors and on websites.

But yay, Apple is up 1.84%.