werewolf LIV! Terror at the country club (GAME OVER WOLVES WIN)

[hoopsguy]

Last note on the other game - if I feel the urge to post on it again I'll just PM Sebastian. If the stuff is already sent out with 11-4 then you could have the moderator go heavy on the items to give the villagers a little more of a boost. So maybe two items per night for the first three nights or something along those lines.

At least there is no conversion in that game. They are, in my opinion, the bane of werewolf games. Ugh - where is the puke icon?

[sebastian0622]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

BTW, Sebastian - have you PM'd Lathum on this? If not then you should definitely do that ASAP.

Done.

And I let Cooley know your advice in the other WW thread. He hasn't sent out roles yet, so that's good.

[Lathum]

now playing tghe part of mrDNa

Sebastian0622

[hoopsguy]

OK, this should be interesting. Welcome, Sebastian. The floor is yours.

[Passacaglia]

Wow, hoops and I agree on something. This SHOULD be interesting!

...

You know...Sebastian, you don't have to ACT like MrDNA too -- you can talk!

So, if you're a wolf, that would help us out.

[hoopsguy]

Pass, hope that the cat is OK. Since my wife and I have three of our own at home, there is another item we can probably agree on today.

So, I'm curious if we are going to get a super-long and involved first post from Sebastian or a "Vote DUDE#1" - I'm hoping for the former, but would laugh pretty hard at the latter.

[sebastian0622]

I have a few ideas. You should hear from me within a few hours after I take care of a few real-life appointments.

[sebastian0622]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Pass, hope that the cat is OK. Since my wife and I have three of our own at home, there is another item we can probably agree on today.

So, I'm curious if we are going to get a super-long and involved first post from Sebastian or a "Vote DUDE#1" - I'm hoping for the former, but would laugh pretty hard at the latter.

Maybe you'll get both

[EagleFan]

unvote Pass

Really curious now, wouldn't it be to the advantage of a wolf to replace a player at this time? When we are potentially one bad vote away from game over. Even more so if DNA was a wolf, than the second wolf would be the one pushing for a replacement (eyes hoops).

[hoopsguy]

Olie, I would be interested in hearing your take on where we sit right now.

[hoopsguy]

Eagle, in a bigger sense I think the game is better with the right number of players. I've played enough games that I'm not going to be hung up on trying to game the system to win this game.

In a smaller sense, I've believed that MrDNA is a villager. I would rather have more villagers around as it makes it harder for the wolves to push us around. Even if DNA was a wolf, that means we have four active (well, Olie hasn't been very active today) villagers, which means we aren't one false step away from a bad lynch. So in that sense, I do think it was good to have an active player assume this role.

A 3-3 tie is considerably better than a 3-2 bad lynch with six players left.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by EagleFan

unvote Pass

Really curious now, wouldn't it be to the advantage of a wolf to replace a player at this time? When we are potentially one bad vote away from game over. Even more so if DNA was a wolf, than the second wolf would be the one pushing for a replacement (eyes hoops).

Maybe I'm missing what you're asking, but I think a good game-runner would look equally hard for a replacement whether DNA was a wolf or villager, for the sake of fairness. It's kind of a bad position to be in for the game -- how do we determine if he is a wolf? And if we decide not to vote for him, what happens if he ends up with the deciding vote? I'm very interested to hear thoughts on this game from someone who doesn't know anyone, hasn't said anything, and hasn't been suspected all game.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

In a smaller sense, I've believed that MrDNA is a villager.

What do you mean, in a smaller sense? What could you possibly have to go on to say he's a villager? Cronin made the argument that someone is sending in actions, and it's not him -- that only holds water if there is one wolf, which I don't think anyone else believes at this point.

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by sebastian0622

Maybe you'll get both

Welcome! Great to have you!

[EagleFan]

Oops, forgot to add a welcome to Sebastian.

[hoopsguy]

To expand on the above just a little bit, even though it has very little to do with this particular game.

There are a number of us who play a whole bunch of games of werewolf. I think Lathum probably has the most under his belt; between player and moderator I'm guessing he has been involved with 45+ games. I've played in probably 25-30 by now. The guys who are long-timers generally get along pretty well, but by the same token we get a little bored playing games with the same old mix of people every time out. We generally are very pleased to have new people come along and play a game.

Now how do you keep new players interested in the game? Well, for starters you try not to be antagonistic, elitist, or guilty of creating a bad environment. The second thing you try to do is keep the games as fair as possible. If people don't think there is a level playing field that will discourage them from playing in future games. I've definitely seen this happen.

That might help explain why I reacted the way I did in this situation. For better or worse, I try to keep long-term community concerns in my head when I'm playing. I'll try very hard not to make the game personal when stuff gets heated, and I'll try to be as inclusive as possible in these games ... of course, while pouring out a stupid number of posts in the process

[EagleFan]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

Maybe I'm missing what you're asking, but I think a good game-runner would look equally hard for a replacement whether DNA was a wolf or villager, for the sake of fairness. It's kind of a bad position to be in for the game -- how do we determine if he is a wolf? And if we decide not to vote for him, what happens if he ends up with the deciding vote? I'm very interested to hear thoughts on this game from someone who doesn't know anyone, hasn't said anything, and hasn't been suspected all game.

Go figure, he complains when I vote for him and when I unvote for him...

Just putting ideas out there. This doesn't change my stance on his role, just have to get a little more discussion going. The more said (typed), the better.

All angles need to be explored.

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

What do you mean, in a smaller sense? What could you possibly have to go on to say he's a villager? Cronin made the argument that someone is sending in actions, and it's not him -- that only holds water if there is one wolf, which I don't think anyone else believes at this point.

I've only got one data point on him, and it was the vote on Day 5 that tied Path for the lead. That was the pressure vote on Path that day, more than any other. Even Eagles vote on him only tied the score late - it never threatened to hang him.

Pass, you and I had votes on Path that day but neither of them tightened things up on Path as much as this vote did. I believe it was why Path and Purdue had to arrange their near-deadline actions that day.

I don't have much to read on DNA, but what I do have I consider to be very positive.

[hoopsguy]

Good to see all the dead guys taking a late-Friday look in at our game. Out for a few, will be back when my daughter is asleep for the night. Should be a couple of hours before deadline.

[EagleFan]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

To expand on the above just a little bit, even though it has very little to do with this particular game.

There are a number of us who play a whole bunch of games of werewolf. I think Lathum probably has the most under his belt; between player and moderator I'm guessing he has been involved with 45+ games. I've played in probably 25-30 by now. The guys who are long-timers generally get along pretty well, but by the same token we get a little bored playing games with the same old mix of people every time out. We generally are very pleased to have new people come along and play a game.

Now how do you keep new players interested in the game? Well, for starters you try not to be antagonistic, elitist, or guilty of creating a bad environment. The second thing you try to do is keep the games as fair as possible. If people don't think there is a level playing field that will discourage them from playing in future games. I've definitely seen this happen.

That might help explain why I reacted the way I did in this situation. For better or worse, I try to keep long-term community concerns in my head when I'm playing. I'll try very hard not to make the game personal when stuff gets heated, and I'll try to be as inclusive as possible in these games ... of course, while pouring out a stupid number of posts in the process

I'm not complaining about him joining. Just wanted to put out some possibilities.

One of the theories being that there are only two wolves left and one was the MIA player. That would pretty much make the second wolf want to push for replacement, especially if there was no movement towards votig out the MIA wolf and maybe action on voting against the wolf who is present.

Again, just floating ideas.

[sebastian0622]

I'm still waiting on a PM from the mod, guys. I'll hopefully check in rather soon.

[sebastian0622]

In the meantime, does anyone have a complete voting record, and/or a run-down of votes, vote switching near deadlines and whatnot?

[hoopsguy]

I've got some of this information - put it together back on Day 6. I'll pull up a couple of the links and you should be able to go from there.

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

These are the final votes for Day 5. Work is pretty busy today, but I expect to have more time this afternoon to look at the votes/unvotes and comments leading up to this vote.

Quick notes on the final votes here:
- both known/dead wolves moved late onto Chief Rum, who has now killed one of them. Gee, he looks pretty good here.
- Pass had his vote on Path (wolf) and it didn't move at the end. I want to go back and see if he was around with an opportunity to do so (based on posts after #1318). If not, that speaks well for him
- RendeR and Cronin both have votes on Chief. Both of their votes were in relatively early. I don't think either of them had a ton of incentive to move based on self-preservation, but it would look better for both of them to be on a now-known wolf than to be on an assumed villager
- MrDNA's vote on Path certainly increased the pressure on a wolf down the stretch, as it put him in a tie for the lead (going from memory here). Speaks well for him
- two of the three votes on RendeR are from assumed good villagers (Chief and RA) and the third from Olie

As stated above, next exercise is to review the votes and comments that day in full. After that, I would be interested in tracking the votes each day from Path and Purdue and comparing them to other players still in the game. The assumption behind that is that the wolves would try to stay dispersed in their votes when possible. If someone has their votes dovetail really closely with a known wolf that is a sign that they are more likely to be good rather than bad.

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

I don't think that Lathum had an official vote post for the end of Day 4, this is the last one publicly listed and there were no votes afterwards. Just putting it up in case someone else wants to review voting records, Day 5, or any of that fun stuff.

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

This is the Day 3 vote.

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Didn't quickly find a vote page for Day 2 (Neon runaway) but this post can act as a benchmark for people who want to look at Day 3 in its entirety.

End of Day 2 - Post #590
End of Day 3 - Post #912
End of Day 4 - Post #1205
End of Day 5 - Post #1397

Links to the vote posts, along with a few notes I had at the time.

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Day 5 voting pattern:
1230 - Cronin votes Hoops, first vote
1232 - Purdue votes Crim
1234 - Purdue unvotes Crim
1237 - Purdue votes Crim, first vote
1247 - Eagle votes Cronin, first vote
1266 - Crim (by e-mail) votes Cronin, first player to two votes
1281 - Raiders votes Hoops, tying with Cronin
1282 - Chief votes RendeR, first vote
1284 - Olie votes RendeR, three way tie at two votes w/Cronin and Hoops
1287 - Hoops votes Path, first vote
1289 - RendeR unvotes Cronin, votes Rum (don't think he had voted yet ...), first vote for Rum
1296 - Cronin unvotes Hoops, votes Rum. Still three way tie with Cronin, RendeR, and Chief
1315 - Raiders unvotes Hoops, votes RendeR. This puts RendeR as first to three votes
1318 - Pass votes Path, giving him his 2nd vote
1321 - MrDNA votes Path, tying him with RendeR atop the leader board
1350 - Purdue unvotes Crim
1366 - Purdue votes Rum, three way tie with Path and RendeR now. Note - RendeR does not post at deadline, do not believe he was around. This passes the deciding vote to Path, barring any vote changes
1372 - Path votes for Chief, putting him on line for lynch
1375 - EagleFan unvotes Cronin, votes Path, creating a 4-4 tie between Path and Chief

Vote and unvote information from Day 5. I know I did one of these earlier on Day 1 as well at some point ...

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Let's see if this works:

Summary of votes. Wolf votes, and votes from villagers matching the wolf votes are color-coded.

Note that I think that voting with the wolves is more likely to be a villager action (kind of counter-intuitive) - the wolves will, unless one of their own is under fire, want to keep their votes as distributed as possible to avoid easy categorization of wolves.

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by Lathum

RendeR - 3. oliegirl (1607), Hoops (1633), Raiders (1638)

hoopsguy - 1 Passacaglia (1573)

Olie - 1 RendeR (1619)

DNA - 1 Cronin (1641)

Pass - 1 Eagle (1660)

Arlingtoncolt-1- (chiefrum)

Day 6 final votes. I never did a vote movement chart with this one, but it isn't all that many posts to review if you are interested in doing so.

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by Lathum

Arlington Colt 5- st.cronin (1696), EagleFan (1733), oliegirl (1756), Raiders (1761), Pass (1776)

Passacaglia 2- Arlington (1764), hoopsguy (1771)

Votes from Day 7.

[sebastian0622]

Well I'm not quite sure what to say. It's getting close to the deadline and I'm still waiting on the mod PM before I can do much.

[hoopsguy]

Well, how about talking about your thoughts on where the vote currently stands - can you do that without having the answer to your PM? Because that would seem like a good "deadline isn't too far out" topic ...

[Passacaglia]

The problem is -- what if he's a wolf?

[hoopsguy]

I always would prefer to have a running conversation rather than nothing - wolf, villager, undecided. In some cases, especially with a wolf.

For example, I've directed more conversation at you than just about anyone else over last couple of days

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

I always would prefer to have a running conversation rather than nothing - wolf, villager, undecided. In some cases, especially with a wolf.

For example, I've directed more conversation at you than just about anyone else over last couple of days

I'm talking about things from his side -- he might like to know what side he's on before he starts spouting off.

[Passacaglia]

Do we still have deadline tonight?

[hoopsguy]

Not sure - but I haven't seen our moderator around at all tonight.

[EagleFan]

oliegirl - 1 Pass (1838)
Pass - 3 hoopsguy (1796) oliegirl (1801) cronin (1821)


Just a quick look at where we stand

[EagleFan]

vote oliegirl

[EagleFan]

oliegirl - 2 Pass (1838) EagleFan (1887)
Pass - 3 hoopsguy (1796) oliegirl (1801) cronin (1821)

Update

[hoopsguy]

I'm hopeful that we have two wolves in the voting crossfire here, as it will make it impossible for them to manipulate the vote to a villager.

However, if that isn't the case then 3-2 is a bad margin, just begging for a last-second switch.

[EagleFan]

who here doesn't trust cronin?

[EagleFan]

I suspected him at one point and he really hasn't cleared his name in my opinion, the attention was just moved elsewhere.

[hoopsguy]

Sebastian - are you going to be able to participate in the vote today if you don't hear back from our illustrious moderator? Because we are closing in on the witching hour.

As Alan T (who is currently watching this game) can attest, Pass knows all about the late vote-switch to pull off the wolf win

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by EagleFan

I suspected him at one point and he really hasn't cleared his name in my opinion, the attention was just moved elsewhere.

I trusted him enough to give him the item last night, as he mentioned earlier in the thread. I hope that he did what he felt he needed to do with the item today.

[EagleFan]

unvote oliegirl

[EagleFan]

vote Pass

I hope I wasn't just conned by hoops and cronin

[Lathum]

ok, I had one foot out the door when sebastian jumped in and I forget to send him an opening PM.

I will extend the deadline by 30 minutes so he can have his say.

[hoopsguy]

No con here - hope that I'm right in all three of us being villagers.

Hope the Cubs can get the last out of their ballgame right now, Dempster looks like a total turd at the moment.

[hoopsguy]

Cubs take 5-1 lead with 3 in top of 9th, game ends with bases-loaded groundout, 5-3 final. Cards - 4 hits in first 8 innings against Big Z, 5 in 9th against Dempster and Howry.

Now that I'm done watching that near-trainwreck I can return my attention to this trainwreck.

[EagleFan]

Glad the Phillies got their last out in the game. 5 straight over the Mets now, including teh 4 game sweep a couple weeks agi. Gotta LOVE that!!!

[EagleFan]

dola: Wow, bad typos there... lousy keyboard...