Invasion of Ukraine

[Ksyrup]

Ruining his chances for a Nobel Peace Prize.

[Edward64]

Some positive news for Ukraine on (defensive) arms shipment, and hopefully a Trump pivot on Putin ... but who knows.

Ukraine aid: Hegseth did not inform the White House before he authorized a pause on weapon shipments, sources say | CNN Politics

it would restart shipments at the direction of the president — after Trump had said publicly earlier in the evening that the Ukrainians needed the defensive weapons to protect themselves.

Trump reiterated that position on Tuesday at the White House.

“I will say this — the Ukrainians, whether you think it’s unfair that we gave all that money or not, they were very brave, because somebody had to operate that stuff,” he said. “And a lot of people I know wouldn’t be operating it, they wouldn’t have the courage to do it.”

Trump also appears less inclined to give Russia a “win” at this moment by halting military aid to Ukraine, two of the sources said. He has soured on Russian President Vladimir Putin in recent weeks as it has become increasingly clear that Putin is not willing to engage in peace talks with Ukraine.

“We get a lot of bulls**t thrown at us by Putin,” Trump said on Tuesday. “You want to know the truth? It’s very nice all the time, but it turns out to be meaningless.”

IMO he shouldn't focus on the Peace Prize (very low odds). Instead, he should cement his legacy as being the one to stop Russia from taking over in Europe (... and possibly Xi in Asia). That is a more plausible sell.

[Edward64]

After 2+ years, I'm all for selling vs giving weapons to Ukraine and western allies can pay for it. This is what Trump should have done vs cutting back/pausing new military aid to Ukraine.

Marcos just met Lavrov in Malaysia. Wouldn't be surprised if Putin offered something and Trump backs off from this.

Just a moment...

President Trump is planning to sell weapons to NATO allies with the understanding that they will then provide them to Ukraine, three sources familiar with the discussions tell Axios.

Trump seemed to confirm those plans in an interview with NBC News on Thursday.

Why it matters: This is a major policy shift from Trump as he grows increasingly disillusioned with Russia's Vladimir Putin. He had long rejected the idea of new arms packages for Ukraine in part to avoid becoming personally embroiled in the conflict.

Yes, but: Two administration officials denied the plans meant Trump would now be arming Ukraine.

"POTUS is sending defensive weapons to NATO. NATO can decide what to do with it. We're not sending weapons to Ukraine," one official said.

[Edward64]

All things considered, good news for Ukraine

https://www.cnn.com/2025/07/14/polit...-weapons-trump

President Donald Trump on Monday laid out a pair of steps intended to pressure Russia to end its war in Ukraine, including funneling new weapons to Kyiv and threatening economic punishment on Moscow if peace isn’t reached in 50 days, as he grows increasingly disenchanted with his Russian counterpart.

“I felt we had a deal about four times,” Trump said, referring to a prospective peace agreement with Russia. “But it just kept going on and on.”

I doubt anything substantial will be reached in 50 days. But I can see Putin agreeing to "just enough with the right conditions" to appease Trump.

Putin: we will unilaterally stop any further advances and reinforce our current lines (and winter is coming soon anyway). If Ukraine attacks us, we reserve the right to respond

The plan the president unveiled Monday – which would see European nations purchase American weapons, then transfer them to Ukraine

I hope having allies buy weapons and they sending weapons to Ukraine (vs US giving them to Ukraine) should help win over all but the most isolationist MAGA.

[Edward64]

Details are still all over the place but bottom-line (to me) is Ukraine will need to give up land for peace. That's really a given (unless Ukraine wants to hang on with very limited US support and hope for a Dem administration in 2028 which is, let's say 50-50 right now). If I was Ukrainian I would be okay with land for peace. If I was Zelenskyy, I would publicly say "no" but ultimately say "yes" and basically say I was forced to.

The real question is how will Ukraine be guaranteed security after peace. Immediate NATO membership may be a no, but I'd bide time (e.g. for a Dem admin and after Putin passes). But there absolutely needs to be EU/NATO/UN buffer zone for sure.

Just a moment...

Behind the scenes: On Wednesday, Trump held a conference call with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and several European leaders to brief them on Witkoff's meeting with Putin.

Two sources said Witkoff told the participants that Putin agreed to end the war if Ukraine agrees to cede its Luhansk and Donetsk regions, which Russian forces have mostly occupied since the invasion, as well as Crimea.

According to the sources, at least some participants of the call came away with the impression Putin had agreed to give up his claim to two other Ukrainian territories that Russia partially controls: Kherson and Zaporizhzhia. That would have been a meaningful concession relative to previous Russian positions.

However, when Witkoff held another video call with senior Ukrainian and European officials the next day, he said Putin had agreed to freeze Russia's current positions in those regions.

It'll suck for the Ukrainians, but this is reality right now.

[GrantDawg]

Not giving up the entirety of those other two territories is about as big a win as they are likely to get. If that is the final outcome, they at least maintain their sovereignty. Putin would not end up getting the regime change he wanted, and Ukraine is on course to joining the EU if not NATO.

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[PilotMan]

Bottom line is. If you're willing to spend a lot of your country's wealth, and have a half million people who you afford to lose in battles, then you to can take over parts of other countries, and who is going to stop you?


trump is going to push all in on this reality.

[Atocep]

https://www.newsweek.com/alaska-russ...ources-2113295

Trump is reportedly set to offer Putin access to natural resources off the coast of Alaska, along thr Bering Strait, to get him to end the war.

[flere-imsaho]

New TACO level, this. Beyond your basic TACO. Maybe carne asada TACO?

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by Atocep

https://www.newsweek.com/alaska-russ...ources-2113295

Trump is reportedly set to offer Putin access to natural resources off the coast of Alaska, along thr Bering Strait, to get him to end the war.

Both parties deserve shame in this but imagine spending hundreds of billions to have your "ally" cede land and have to give up some of your own resources in a war you weren't directly involved in. Another massive failure from a dying empire.

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

Both parties deserve shame in this but imagine spending hundreds of billions to have your "ally" cede land and have to give up some of your own resources in a war you weren't directly involved in. Another massive failure from a dying empire.

And this is because he desperately wants to win a Nobel Peace Prize because Obama has one.

[RainMaker]

I mean, I don't think there are a lot of good options. We were never involved to win a war. It was about funneling money to the defense industry after the Afghanistan well dried up. And when this well dries up, it'll shift to Israel, Iran, Venezuela, or maybe just domestically. Our policy is based on laundering tax dollars to execs at Raytheon.

[Fidatelo]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

I mean, I don't think there are a lot of good options. We were never involved to win a war. It was about funneling money to the defense industry after the Afghanistan well dried up. And when this well dries up, it'll shift to Israel, Iran, Venezuela, or maybe just domestically. Our policy is based on laundering tax dollars to execs at Raytheon.

The war machine will be turned domestically and towards your immediate neighbors. Trump doesn't care about those Alaskan resources because he can recoup all that and more from taking Canada. Having a cordial relationship with the Russians makes it easier to focus on conquering North America without worrying that Russia might try to grab the northern territories while Canada and the US are duking it out along the border.

[Edward64]

I like it. See starting 3:00 and Putin's reaction at 3:30.

[Edward64]

There's talk about a Putin-Zelenskyy meeting. I doubt anything will be resolved then (and IMO better than fair chance of a blowup), but just a first step in the process.

And I like how Zelenskyy showed up to the Trump meeting with his EU allies. Cautiously optimistic that some sort of deal (land concession for real security) can be worked out. I have to believe many Ukrainians will privately be glad for it.