WW LXVII -- The Return of Divination Nation! (GAME OVER STUDENTS WIN!!!)

[Pumpy Tudors]

The bottom line is that I just want to be on the winning team, so I'm hoping the students win. I don't particularly like being sacrificed here for the sake of narrowing things down, but if that's what it takes, I just hope that the students end up as victors anyway.

My vote for the day is a pretty clear one. SnDvls and I scanned each other as wolves. I'm not a wolf, and my accuracy rate may be 6% for all I know, but he's found a reason to take me out, and I've found a reason to reciprocate. There's no other vote I can make here unless somebody can convince me to vote for someone else. I'm sure not going to vote for myself.

[The Jackal]

Well, I don't see much of a choice here. It's quite possible that Mike Vic is an under the radar wolf here, but I think I'm going to follow JH and BK on this one.

Vote Pumpy

[MikeVic]

Who's in the COT right now and why? I know heinz would be, but I'm not sure who else.

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by MikeVic

Who's in the COT right now and why? I know heinz would be, but I'm not sure who else.

Check out post 1885.

[MikeVic]

Thanks.

[MikeVic]

Is it just me, or does it seem like the remaining candidates have pretty much been under the radar? At least not contributing as much as the other villagers.

So BK is in the outer rim of the COT?

[jeheinz72]

Originally Posted by MikeVic

Is it just me, or does it seem like the remaining candidates have pretty much been under the radar? At least not contributing as much as the other villagers.

So BK is in the outer rim of the COT?

I'd say yes on both accounts.

I mean, I'm willing to give BK the benefit of the doubt, for now, that he's a good player who always scans good, but eventually, not today and maybe not tomorrow, he'll have to be reconsidered if we're continually unsuccessful.

Of course that could be moot, as I could see them also wanting to kill him in a night kill

[jeheinz72]

Looking back at voting, SnDvls and Jackal both voted for no lynch the first two days. Granted, the 2nd day it's pretty easy for a wolf to vote No Lynch when it's clear there will be a lynch elsewhere, but it's worth noting.

[Pumpy Tudors]

I really wish I knew how to convince you guys that you're making a mistake by voting for me. As I said before, if it leads to a win for the students, I'll have to accept that my death (if it happens) would be for a noble cause. If it blows up on us, though, I'll be very sad.

[MikeVic]

Are we bothering on scans still?

[The Jackal]

Originally Posted by jeheinz72

Looking back at voting, SnDvls and Jackal both voted for no lynch the first two days. Granted, the 2nd day it's pretty easy for a wolf to vote No Lynch when it's clear there will be a lynch elsewhere, but it's worth noting.

That's a good point, and I think I'll be scanning SnD again tonight, I don't trust one result.

[mauchow]

WE've made sure that none of the scans on Barkeep weren't done by wolves?

[SnDvls]

Originally Posted by jeheinz72

Looking back at voting, SnDvls and Jackal both voted for no lynch the first two days. Granted, the 2nd day it's pretty easy for a wolf to vote No Lynch when it's clear there will be a lynch elsewhere, but it's worth noting.

Originally Posted by The Jackal

That's a good point, and I think I'll be scanning SnD again tonight, I don't trust one result.

if you look back at my reasoning you'll see why I voted No Lynch on day 2...I didn't feel we had enough data points to lynch someone and as it turned out we didn't. If we would have allowed that one more day of no lynch we'd probally already have this game over IMO with the people who have been eliminated via lynch & wolf kills.

[jeheinz72]

Originally Posted by mauboy1

WE've made sure that none of the scans on Barkeep weren't done by wolves?

Neither scanned him, no. There have been 6 non-night-0 scans on Barkeep. All of them have come back as Good.

3 are from confirmed Good players, 2 by DC, one by saldana.

Then one each from MikeVic, SnDvls, The Jackal.

If we're figuring there are 2 wolves left and BK is one of them, then at most 1 of those 3 could be lying to us. So that'd still be 5 good scans out of 5 for BK. From that I'd say A) That's highly unlikely if there isn't another mechanic in place and B) Barkeep took a wildly large risk by his prounouncing to always scan good if he was indeed a wolf and this wasn't in fact true. He wasn't under duress when he did that and one scan of him as a wolf would've been like insta-lynch in my eyes. I suppose we can keep scanning him, but that seems wasteful.

Also, do we want to setup scanning groups again? I'd be happy to set them up (or someone else can, it's cool by me either way).

[jeheinz72]

Vote Count:

Pumpy: 4 (BK, jeheinz72, SnDvls, Jackal)
SnDvls: 1 (Pumpy)
Jackal: 1 (Mau)

Not voting: Mr. Wednesday, NTNDeacon, MikeVic

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by mauboy1

WE've made sure that none of the scans on Barkeep weren't done by wolves?

I've been scanned by The Jackal, saldana, SnDvls, MikeVic and Dodgerchick (who scanned me twice). Of the known dead people neither were wolves. Logic tells us that one of The Jackal, SnDvls, or MikeVic is likely a wolf.

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by jeheinz72

If we're figuring there are 2 wolves left and BK is one of them, then at most 1 of those 3 could be lying to us. So that'd still be 5 good scans out of 5 for BK. From that I'd say A) That's highly unlikely if there isn't another mechanic in place and B) Barkeep took a wildly large risk by his prounouncing to always scan good if he was indeed a wolf and this wasn't in fact true. He wasn't under duress when he did that and one scan of him as a wolf would've been like insta-lynch in my eyes. I suppose we can keep scanning him, but that seems wasteful.

I appreciate this analysis, but feel that I was under slight duress when I revealed, but that pressure was coming from cronin who was screaming rather loudly about the "coincidence" of my having been scanned as a village so many times. I choose to reveal early, as I feel honesty is the best policy as a villager, and I didn't want that meme getting off the ground.

Obviously we know that the wolves would be paying close attention to scan results, and so it's not surprising that the wolves tried to get me lynched, considering their early game strategy of taking out players who've played lots of games.

[jeheinz72]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

I appreciate this analysis, but feel that I was under slight duress when I revealed, but that pressure was coming from cronin who was screaming rather loudly about the "coincidence" of my having been scanned as a village so many times. I choose to reveal early, as I feel honesty is the best policy as a villager, and I didn't want that meme getting off the ground.

Obviously we know that the wolves would be paying close attention to scan results, and so it's not surprising that the wolves tried to get me lynched, considering their early game strategy of taking out players who've played lots of games.

Yeah, looking back cronin was on ya there a bit.

And yeah, I mean if you're a wolf then it's a REALLY rough mechanic for the village to overcome. So much so I would doubt Path put it in the game. The 4 people out of our COT and not me or you are a much much much bigger concern today.

[The Jackal]

FYI, my scan of BK was from N0, so I really don't consider that as worth anything.

[jeheinz72]

Originally Posted by The Jackal

FYI, my scan of BK was from N0, so I really don't consider that as worth anything.

You sure about that? I have you as scanning MikeVic night0 and Barkeep Night1. Hrm.

[The Jackal]

Scanning groups are fine with me, JH. You can set them up, or one of the COT can set them up, whatever works. Most scans should go on me, Snd, and Mike I'd assume.

[The Jackal]

Originally Posted by jeheinz72

You sure about that? I have you as scanning MikeVic night0 and Barkeep Night1. Hrm.

My bad - you are right, it's been so long since then. Then don't disregard that scan.

[The Jackal]

Anyone in the COT around to volunteer doing the scan assignments?

[The Jackal]

JH, maybe you should whiz me up tonight? I'm kind of curious to what my accuracy rate is.. tied directly to whether or not SnD is a wolf.

[Barkeep49]

I'd prefer that someone in the CoT, meaning NTN, Mr. W, or mau, setup the scanning circle tonight.

[ntndeacon]

I actually had wondered about Pumpy for a couple of days. I seem to have very low accuracy. I scanned Pumpy on night 0 as a student. NOw I know several of you hold night 0 scans with disdain, but I think there is something to them. So with out further adeiu...

Vote Pumpy

[Pumpy Tudors]

Welp, barring a miracle, I'm done. I really wish you guys would change your minds. The wolves have manipulated this. Their evil plan is working, and I'm the sacrifice. I guess maybe it'll give the more useful students another day to figure things out, though. So long, my fellow classmates.

[jeheinz72]

Originally Posted by The Jackal

JH, maybe you should whiz me up tonight? I'm kind of curious to what my accuracy rate is.. tied directly to whether or not SnD is a wolf.

I actually call it "Whiz on".

So yes, I might indeed whiz on you tonight.

[jeheinz72]

Originally Posted by Pumpy Tudors

Welp, barring a miracle, I'm done. I really wish you guys would change your minds. The wolves have manipulated this. Their evil plan is working, and I'm the sacrifice. I guess maybe it'll give the more useful students another day to figure things out, though. So long, my fellow classmates.

Well, I don't know what to say Pumpy. If you're just an innocent in all this, then them's the breaks man. Facts are facts, there are 4 people who could be wolves and you (possibly through no fault of your own) haven't done anything to preclude you from that group.

Hopefully we're right and you're just lyin'!

[The Jackal]

Originally Posted by jeheinz72

I actually call it "Whiz on".

So yes, I might indeed whiz on you tonight.

Dreams do come true!

[Mr. Wednesday]

Originally Posted by MikeVic

Are we bothering on scans still?

Anybody who's not at or near 50% known accuracy, yes. People who are known to be somewhere in between, we should pile up as many of their scans on single people as possible so that we can use the weight of probability to combine their info.

[Pumpy Tudors]

Originally Posted by jeheinz72

Well, I don't know what to say Pumpy. If you're just an innocent in all this, then them's the breaks man. Facts are facts, there are 4 people who could be wolves and you (possibly through no fault of your own) haven't done anything to preclude you from that group.

Hopefully we're right and you're just lyin'!

Well, I do understand. It just sucks.

[Mr. Wednesday]

Originally Posted by jeheinz72

On Night 2 I learned MikeVic has a 48% hit rate.

Based on this, I think it's pointless for MikeVic to do any further scanning. Everybody else would still be on, as they're either somewhat accurate or unknown.

The next question is, do we want to spread our scans or target them? If we spread them out, we get better coverage. If we target them on one person, we get more certainty about that one person, to the extent that we have an idea of which side of the line (accurate or inaccurate) individual seers fall on.

[jeheinz72]

Originally Posted by Mr. Wednesday

Based on this, I think it's pointless for MikeVic to do any further scanning. Everybody else would still be on, as they're either somewhat accurate or unknown.

The next question is, do we want to spread our scans or target them? If we spread them out, we get better coverage. If we target them on one person, we get more certainty about that one person, to the extent that we have an idea of which side of the line (accurate or inaccurate) individual seers fall on.

The only catch I see with targeting them onto one person is, coordinating it. I mean we can say, ok, everyone scan heinz! Then they night kill me and that didn't do anyone any real good (as far as determining a wolf the next day).

I'd say we should scan 2-3 people as a group though, max.

[jeheinz72]

Whoever sets up the scans, don't include me. I can only Whiz or scan on a given night, and I'd suppose technically I might as well Whiz, since I haven't scanned yet and have no idea what my accuracy would be anyhow.

[Barkeep49]

I agree that concentrating the scans on one person is just inviting that person to be the night kill. I think dividing between 2 players is, with the amount of players left, our most sensible option.

[MikeVic]

I don't know. I really am lost as to who the wolves are. I'll just put a vote on Jackal. Not sure if I'll be here before the voting deadline, but I'll try.

VOTE THE JACKAL

[The Jackal]

Originally Posted by MikeVic

I don't know. I really am lost as to who the wolves are. I'll just put a vote on Jackal. Not sure if I'll be here before the voting deadline, but I'll try.

VOTE THE JACKAL

Not really surprising, we're both in the non-COT group, and I already have a vote on me.. I'll be keeping this vote in mind.

[MikeVic]

Originally Posted by The Jackal

Not really surprising, we're both in the non-COT group, and I already have a vote on me.. I'll be keeping this vote in mind.

I just don't know if Pumpy is a wolf or not, so I don't want another run-away like that. mau is in the COT and put the first vote for you, so I just went with that.

If Pumpy is indeed a wolf, then I really don't know have any instincts for this.

[MikeVic]

I'm here for another 15 minutes or so and then I'm probably gone until after the deadline.

[jeheinz72]

Originally Posted by MikeVic

If Pumpy is indeed a wolf, then I really don't know have any instincts for this.

It's a tough one. We certainly haven't done ourselves any favors with the runaway votes, but what can ya do.

[jeheinz72]

Ditto, I'm outta here in about 15 minutes as usual.
I'm pretty solid on my vote. It's as informed of one as I can make. I doubt I'll live to see the next day though, so go STUDENTS!

[Mr. Wednesday]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

I agree that concentrating the scans on one person is just inviting that person to be the night kill.

The point is more to be gunning for a wolf than to be gunning for a student, I'd think, especially considering the size of our current CoT. If they want to go for someone outside the CoT, so be it.

[Mr. Wednesday]

Dola, anybody got a current count?

[The Jackal]

Originally Posted by Mr. Wednesday

Dola, anybody got a current count?

Pumpy: 5 (BK, jeheinz72, SnDvls, Jackal, NTN)
Jackal: 2 (Mau, MikeVic)
SnDvls: 1 (Pumpy)

Not voting: Mr. Wednesday

[Pumpy Tudors]

UNVOTE SNDVLS
VOTE THE JACKAL

[Pumpy Tudors]

I still believe that SnDvls is more likely to be a wolf than The Jackal, but I don't have any firm evidence either way. I have to make this vote closer, though. I'm hoping that somebody will have a change of heart and find something that proves my innocence.

I'm not furry at all!

[Mr. Wednesday]

Where it doesn't actually tie things up but does make things closer, I'm going to put a vote on The Jackal. This isn't because I necessarily prefer lynching him to Pumpy, it's to facilitate instructive shenanigans near deadline.

VOTE The Jackal

[Pumpy Tudors]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

After reading over his posts, I'm inclined to believe MikeVic is the other wolf if Pumpy is one. They had some hostility a couple days back that amounted to nothing and seemed possibly contrived, in retrospect. But I'm not terribly sold on Pumpy, let alone Pumpy+Mike. In fact I'm uneasy about the whole thing. It just seems like the best of bad choices.

If you're going to come back before deadline, please think about why this is making you uneasy. For some reason, a couple of other people seem really quick to follow your lead and vote for me, but they don't have anything of their own to go on. The wolves are setting me up here. I don't know if Jackal is a wolf, but I know I'm not, and it appears that part of you knows it, too.

The way it stands right now, this group is making the wrong call, and we're on the verge of losing a student here for no good reason.

Please just think about it.

[mauchow]

5-4 now and nobody left to vote, right?

I can agree with the fact that I might be wrong on this scan, who knows though. We'll see tonight. Pumpy doesn't seem to have anything other than, "I don't know what else I can tell you guys.." bit.. which is a good ploy. I'm thinking he might actually be a wolf now. If we can hit a wolf tonight, that'd be great. Maybe it'll be the end of the game, too.

If I'm alive, I'll probably be scanning the Jackal again tonight to see what comes up. If Heinz lives again, perhaps he can scan my accuracy so we can figure this out even further. I imagine one of us will be dead by tonight.