WW XCIII - Mine Wars - Battle of Blair Mountain - SYMPATHIZERS WIN!!!

[EagleFan]

work food distribution

[Danny]

So, do we wait to vote until day 7 or we just vote over the next two days and can start now?

[Danny]

I do find it interesting also that USFL remains in jail. Maybe they're waiting for the seer to be gone before releasing him?

[Abe Sargent]

You do have a vote scheduled for today for failing to meet yesterday's tasks. I am talking about the failure to make Cabin Creek tomorrow, Day Six, will be two votes on Day Seven, just so everyone knows the stakes.

[Abe Sargent]

Yeah, sorry, forgot it in my write up. USFLTecmo is released from jail. Yay. The warrant was false.

[EagleFan]

We should coordinate the specialties so that we can maximize how we use everyone. Most importantly so we can have a backup plan if anything strange like another arrest happens.

[Danny]

Originally Posted by EagleFan

We should coordinate the specialties so that we can maximize how we use everyone. Most importantly so we can have a backup plan if anything strange like another arrest happens.

I think the wolves can only arrest every other day.

[EagleFan]

Originally Posted by Danny

So, do we wait to vote until day 7 or we just vote over the next two days and can start now?

I think we oust tomorrow for today. If we lose the next two days combined then we oust two the next day.

[Danny]

Oh ok, so USFL was released and we are voting someone off.

I'm going to get things started

Vote NTNDeacon

I know Dubb is a top suspect, and this is the way NTN normally plays, but it could be a convenient way for a wolf to hide. This vote definitely is not stuck here, but will hopefully at least encourage some more participation on his part.

[EagleFan]

Originally Posted by Danny

I think the wolves can only arrest every other day.

We should still make sure we get the most out of our workers. We can probably finish off food distribution and gladhandling today and try to get as much as possible on the other tasks.

[Danny]

Originally Posted by EagleFan

We should still make sure we get the most out of our workers. We can probably finish off food distribution and gladhandling today and try to get as much as possible on the other tasks.

Definitely. I already voted, but the other player who I think should garner some votes is USFL, he has been awfully quiet too.

[EagleFan]

I am going to put in a place holder vote for now to see how the conversation goes.

Also, remember that we are assuming the "wolves" can't do something during the night because they arrested USFL. We don't know for certain if there was a bribe, or maybe even a block.

Hopefully we got another good scan from Norm.

For bribe suspects I would have to say that Lathum and myself are probably tops on the list. Lathum could also be the cunning for all we know (just a word of caution). Not saying that I suspect him for any reason at all, just that a good scan doesn't mean 100% clear until we eliminate the cunning. Even after that there is the chance of a bribe but we would then know that the person cleared by a scan was at least good up until that point to have a base line to judge their actions from.

[Poli]

Originally Posted by Danny

No kill again, just like last time they arrested someone. Like I thought, they can't make a kill when they arrest. I didn't want to say this in case I was wrong, but I have a good feeling Poli picked up on this as well and this could mean another two scans.

I picked up what just about everyone was putting down.

[Poli]

I can't vote for ntn. I just don't buy that the demon deacon is our potential last bad guy.

[EagleFan]

lol, started that last post wanting to vote and then side tracked myself.


vote PurdueBrad

I am still not sold on his flop from mission to camp on day two. Since we found one sympathiser was on the mission that day this would fit nicely into the theory that the sympathisers did not want to have two on the mission once they decided on arresting me.

[Danny]

Originally Posted by EagleFan

I am going to put in a place holder vote for now to see how the conversation goes.

Also, remember that we are assuming the "wolves" can't do something during the night because they arrested USFL. We don't know for certain if there was a bribe, or maybe even a block.

Hopefully we got another good scan from Norm.

For bribe suspects I would have to say that Lathum and myself are probably tops on the list. Lathum could also be the cunning for all we know (just a word of caution). Not saying that I suspect him for any reason at all, just that a good scan doesn't mean 100% clear until we eliminate the cunning. Even after that there is the chance of a bribe but we would then know that the person cleared by a scan was at least good up until that point to have a base line to judge their actions from.

I think the first arrest was too early for a bribe and there was also no night kill which is why I didn't suspect one tonight either. I definitely don't think the wolves have already bribed two players which would have to be the case if the wolves were able to kill on a night they arrested.

[Poli]

We now know for certain that is wasn't a block.

[Danny]

Originally Posted by Poli

I can't vote for ntn. I just don't buy that the demon deacon is our potential last bad guy.

We've only found two, I would think we would have more than 3. He isn't at the top of my lists of suspects, but a player should not be able to get through a week of play with only 10 posts.

[Poli]

That it...not is.

[Poli]

Originally Posted by Danny

We've only found two, I would think we would have more than 3. He isn't at the top of my lists of suspects, but a player should not be able to get through a week of play with only 10 posts.

Understood, but ntn has done that for both the "north and the south" in the past.

[EagleFan]

Originally Posted by Danny

I think the first arrest was too early for a bribe and there was also no night kill which is why I didn't suspect one tonight either. I definitely don't think the wolves have already bribed two players which would have to be the case if the wolves were able to kill on a night they arrested.

Why would that be too early for a bribe? With an unknown number of conversions possible by bribes that would tell me that the wolves started with a small number. I would think that they would want to increase their numbers as early as possible.

Not saying there was a bribe, just that I don't think we can immediately discard that possibility.

I actually find it a little odd that you seem very quick to discard that theory. That plus your "I voted for Jackal early so therefore I must be clean" theory is making me wonder. I saw you use this type of play as the "Puppet Master" of the wolves.

[EagleFan]

Originally Posted by Poli

We now know for certain that is wasn't a block.

Rats, was hoping there was and that you were wearing better glasses this time.

[EagleFan]

Time to get some sleep before I doze off holding the laptop.

[Danny]

Originally Posted by EagleFan

Why would that be too early for a bribe? With an unknown number of conversions possible by bribes that would tell me that the wolves started with a small number. I would think that they would want to increase their numbers as early as possible.

Not saying there was a bribe, just that I don't think we can immediately discard that possibility.

I actually find it a little odd that you seem very quick to discard that theory. That plus your "I voted for Jackal early so therefore I must be clean" theory is making me wonder. I saw you use this type of play as the "Puppet Master" of the wolves.

lol, I wish I was a worse wolf now

Regarding the bribes, we have no actual information to work with, but I am using logic to determine how I think Abe would lay things out. I'll explain my thinking here.

Night 2 and 4 there were arrests. Night 2 and 4 there were no kills and no blocks.

This means that either both nights there was no kill because of the arrest or both nights there was a bribe.

Because we all have different bribe amounts, my thinking is that the wolves accumulate money for bribing each day. This way, they have the choice to play it conservatively by building up money to make a bribe resist unlikely or go for multiple bribes with the risk of being caught. If it works any other way, I don't really see how there is any downside for the wolves and that would unbalance things.

I don't see the wolves making a play to bribe day two with a small amount of money. I also see no way the wolves had enough money to bribe and feel comfortable bribing two people in four days.

[Danny]

Oh and it's certainly possible I am wrong, but at this point in the game, I don't think we should play using unlikely logic. As things develop, we can certainly rethink things.

[Chief Rum]

Putting in for Patrolling, as usual:

VOTE PATROLLING

Between USFL and I, we can get 6 of the 10 needed for Patrolling.

Interested in hearing TheNorm's scan results.

[Danny]

After going into what I thought the arrests meant regarding night kills I remembered something Abe said earlier. He said people arrested may not come back from the game. And when a player came back, he said the warrant did not stick. Knowing Abe's pension for dice rolling, I actually think it's quite likely when the wolves arrest someone a dice is rolled to decide whether their warrant sticks or not. If it does, that player is out of the game. The arrest also takes the place of a night kill as I surmised earlier. For that matter, it looks like it may be possible the wolves can only switch off night killing and arresting every other day.

I think the arrest of EF and the following attempted night kill on him follows this logic where the wolves clearly wanted him out of the game.

Again, this would be wrong, but this makes me feel a lot better about USFL. I also want to look at who the wolves could have arrested and didn't among the x3 workers. I think this could tell us a lot as the arrest could be similar to picking a night kill.

[Danny]

Originally Posted by Danny

Again, this could be wrong, but this makes me feel a lot better about USFL. I also want to look at who the wolves could have arrested and didn't among the x3 workers. I think this could tell us a lot as the arrest could be similar to picking a night kill.

Fixed

[Danny]

Taken from #1749 by EF

Some interesting thins to note. There were not enough work points even with USFL's arrest. THis tells me the wolves may not have had a choice and must alternate between night kill and arrest. Also to note, the other x3 player involved was Chief Rum.

Work:
Hunting - Danny (1534), Barkeep49 (1536), jeheinz72 (1593), ntndeacon (1599), The Jackal (1626), TheNorm (1651), EagleFan (1706), dubb93 (1724), PurdueBrad (1729) (9/10)
Patrol - Chief Rum x3 (1528), Lathum (1709) (4/10)
Mission - claphamsa (1588), DaddyTorgo (1608), Poli (1620) (3/?) - locked (1632)
Jail - USFLTecmo (1642)

No work orders: Glengoyne, RendeR

[Danny]

Day two, the other arrest.

patrol - CR (x3), USFL (x3) (6/6)
food distribution - Lathum (x3), BK, PB, heinz, dubb, Autumn, TheNorm, Danny (x3), Pass (13/15)
organization - clap, ntn (x3), Schmidty (3), DT (8/8)

Lathum, Danny, USFL, Chief Rum, NTN, Schmidty are all x3 from here. The wolves passed them all up for a chance at EF. Since then, Lathum has been cleared (pending Cunning), I know I am good and USFL was arrested later. I can easily see why the wolves would go for EF or CR over Schmidty and NTN. What sticks out to me is that the wolves have had two opportunities to arrest chief rum at x3 and have not done so.

[Danny]

BTW, I know most of the premises I am working from are not known facts, but I think the logic is strong and holds very well to all actions we have seen thus far.

[Danny]

Pending the scan result, I may be swinging my vote to CR.

[Danny]

Unvote NTN
Vote Chief Rum

Will consider changing this (especially depending on scan result), but wanted this vote here since I'll likely be sleeping in.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Danny

Unvote NTN
Vote Chief Rum

Will consider changing this (especially depending on scan result), but wanted this vote here since I'll likely be sleeping in.

Danny, you have been knocking on this door all game now, but you're wrong. If you lynch me, I will come up a relatively useless villager, and you will have wasted another day.

[Danny]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

Danny, you have been knocking on this door all game now, but you're wrong. If you lynch me, I will come up a relatively useless villager, and you will have wasted another day.

This vote is not set in stone and I personally am hoping you were scanned, so we'll see. I would like to hear your thoughts about the logic I laid out regarding arrests and all that. It certainly made perfect since in my mind, but I want to hear if others minds follow along with that logic.

Oh, and I've only been knocking on that door after someone at Jackal's house answered his door

[Chief Rum]

Your logic there is better than nothing, I suppose, but I think it makes too many assumptions. I, of course, have the advantage of knowing it's leading you to the wrong conclusion. I hope I am scanned, too.

As it is, I don't think the wolves are much worried about me. It's obvious that my schedule has impacted my availability in the game (witness the Jackal thing I missed), and they already know who the BG, Duke and Seer are.

[Danny]

And even if the logic is true that doesn't make you a wolf for certain as they may be other reasons they picked USFL over you.

[PurdueBrad]

Easy call,

work on oratory

[claphamsa]

work gladhandling

[PurdueBrad]

Our two weakest spots, amount of labor-wise, are oratory and patrolling so we'll need to make sure we have extra coverage on each of those. Those would seem to be the most vulnerable targets for the wolves to hit and, if this camp represents what I think it does, these are key places to cover up.

[Barkeep49]

Abe, will we get a status report on our work done at the end of today?

[Barkeep49]

While I was initally skeptical, I think the vote analysis against dubb looks solid.

Vote dubb

[Barkeep49]

Danny: I'm not a big fan of the way you're pushing what the wolves can or can't do. With bribery being such an obvious point in the game, I think we shouldn't jump to conclusions.

[Danny]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

Danny: I'm not a big fan of the way you're pushing what the wolves can or can't do. With bribery being such an obvious point in the game, I think we shouldn't jump to conclusions.

That's true. I do admit I was feeling adventurous with the theories I laid out.

[Abe Sargent]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

Abe, will we get a status report on our work done at the end of today?

Yes

[DaddyTorgo]

WORK ON ORATORY

[TheNorm]

Fellas, Chief Rum was my scan last night and he's labor (Wings and Ducks working together, who'd have thunk it? ).

Sorry I couldn't catch a baddie this time.

Let me know where my work is needed for today.

[Danny]

Unvote Chief Rum

[PurdueBrad]

Know that CR is good, I'll

vote dubb

[PurdueBrad]

Know=Now

Sorry, trying to type this as I walk down a hallway.