Werewolf Small game XII- The game thread. GAME OVER VILLAGERS WIN!

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

It wouldn't surprise me at all if the wolves were KWhit and either ntndeacon or Alan T. I think as a villager you have to use your vote, rather than worry about how it makes you look after the fact. Both of them seem to have been worried about how it would look.

Where did I say I cared how it looked? If I cared how it looked, wouldn't I have just thrown my vote away on kwhit and left it at that? Its a day 1 vote. Show me where I said that i cared how anyone else perceived my vote at all

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by Alan T

My issues with this are:

1) Hoops usually is an early Seer scan target
2) Hoops tried to convince the seer to scan elsewhere instead of a likely vet (such as himself)
3) If the Wolves were very afraid of hoops and wanted him dead, they would have just night killed him. No bodyguard = they could kill off anyone they wanted including hoops if they were most afraid of him.

1) Yep, only one person out there knows who was actually scanned last night
2) If the person didn't want to scan Molly, then they should have scanned me for suggesting it. Also, #2 would have potentially been more compelling (to me, anyway) if it had been offered up before the person I suggested showed up dead this morning
3) There was no good reason for them to kill me over other players in this game when I had a significant role in lynching villager Barkeep

Suffice it to say that I don't think the wolves were particularly afraid of me or putting together strategies with the express purpose of making my life more difficult.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by ntndeacon

Just wanted to make you aware that I did suggest changing my vote. I admit Idid not name Kwhit, but since it was only a couple of posts after your comments I thought it was inferred. If not iwill make it plainer in the future

You posted that after Hoops had posted defending kwhit. So I had assumed you were referring to that in your post.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

dola

and i'd like to point out that i was already on kwit last night alan. i'd certainly consider that a way that made some sense to go today.

I'm not that hot to vote kwhit today, I was more thinking about doing so last night rather than voting Barkeep or MM. I'm not quite sure yet where I will vote, heck maybe I'll not vote again today!


Right now we don't have alot to go on, so its all just speculation and gut feelings, and right now my gut hurts from eating chocolate cake after lunch

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by Alan T

You posted that after Hoops had posted defending kwhit. So I had assumed you were referring to that in your post.

If you continue to insist that I "defended" KWhit then we are going to continue to disagree on this point. I wanted to understand why KWhit was the target of your suspicions at the time. I had interpreted his actions differently than you had and put those thoughts out there with the intention of continuing a discussion. You disappeared without casting a vote and today are going after me as being somehow linked with him.

[hoopsguy]

I'm going to work with the assumption that one of our two wolves would have voted for a leading candidate yesterday. I think it is easier to blend in there than on an isolated candidate, all things being equal.

Barkeep 3 ( St.Cronin 17,Hoopsguy 48, MollyMurphy 74 )
DaddyTorgo 1 ( Sndvls 28 )
MollyMurphy 3 ( Kwhit 42, Barkeep 49, Path 54 )
Hoopsguy 1 ( NTNdeacon 44 )
Path12 1 ( Peregrine 45 )
Kwhit 1 ( Daddytorgo 46 )

Not Voted AlanT

You can take out Barkeep and Molly, who voted for each other. I can take my own name out, which leaves me with three people to consider for today. Does this give me better odds than a random guess?

Random - nine left, take self out, eight left, 2/8 = 25%
Theory - one out of three voters = 33%

What would be even better is if I have some legitimate reason to suspect someone on the list of three names: Cronin, KWhit, Path. I'm not sure that I'm there yet, but will do some post hunting when I get home this evening (about to disappear for a few hours) focusing on these three unless someone has a better theory/odds.

[DaddyTorgo]

Originally Posted by Alan T

I'm not that hot to vote kwhit today, I was more thinking about doing so last night rather than voting Barkeep or MM. I'm not quite sure yet where I will vote, heck maybe I'll not vote again today!


Right now we don't have alot to go on, so its all just speculation and gut feelings, and right now my gut hurts from eating chocolate cake after lunch

mmmm cake! chocolate cake!!!


p.s. how's the baby?

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

If you continue to insist that I "defended" KWhit then we are going to continue to disagree on this point. I wanted to understand why KWhit was the target of your suspicions at the time. I had interpreted his actions differently than you had and put those thoughts out there with the intention of continuing a discussion. You disappeared without casting a vote and today are going after me as being somehow linked with him.

The reason I "phrase" it as defending Kwhit is because you gave multiple "defenses" for him after I stated my reasons for wanting to vote him.

Originally Posted by Alan T

Well, my thought is I know Im a good guy, the wolves know Im a good guy, I think MM's reason to vote me was so poor that even a wolf wouldn't front that, but a wolf would use her vote as a reason to jump on her. The way Kwhit did it was the old "she's obviously trying to jump on Alan for no reason so I'll vote her" vote.

Out of the three, I feel more likely he is the wolf

Was my reason here sound? Who knows. its day 1 vote, what do I know about people?

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

I guess you can point to the "no explanation" vote as questionable, but I'm not sure how fair it is to call something "hit and run" over the weekend.

So, why KWhit over SnDvls to pick another name here? Just trying to flesh out thoughts on this, as Alan seems pretty confident that the two people in the lead are villager vs villager, despite the fact that there is no role that could be certain of this information outside of a wolf. I'm fine with playing gut instinct, but I want to understand the thought process before I back it.

Your first defense was the alternate target defense of Sndvls whom you named without even giving a reason here. I don't understand the reasoning for throwing his name out without the "evidence" you wanted me to provide for kwhit.

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Alternate explanation - KWhit responded to your "villegar" post, saw the same thing in his role PM, and put his vote out there to protect you from someone who seemed to be jumping on you.

I have no idea what KWhit's thought process was - it would be convenient if he was here to talk about this himself. But if you were a wolf, how would you respond to potential for your post to start creating a circle of trust? Would you try to remove the center (Alan) or would you try to align with him? From what you are posting, it seems like you think the latter.

The next defense was the one that he then popped in with saying "Yep thats the reason"

Like I said before, your actions got my wolf-radar tingling. You seemed alot more willing to give Kwhit the benefit of the doubt than you were for Barkeep, whom you placed a vote on simply because of Barkeep tossing out a rather silly reason to vote Cronin (for a day 1 vote that no one had anything but silly reasons to vote) as well as his having fun with DT stating he should return the favor on a vote on Sndvls (whom you later seemed to egg me into voting for in the same humerous manner)

So then Barkeep changed his vote for basically the same reason that Kwhit voted and you showed him the complete opposite reaction as you did for kwhit.



It just felt pretty inconsistant for your norm Hoops in how you handled similar situations through multiple people. Like I said, it just got me tingling, but you just felt all over the place on people and I am not sure why.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

mmmm cake! chocolate cake!!!


p.s. how's the baby?

Doing well!

[DaddyTorgo]

Originally Posted by Alan T

Doing well!

more pixplzkthnx? in the baby thread!! hope the lady is doing better too.


interesting points you bring up about hoops.

UNVOTE PATH

I didn't think he was actually serious, I thought he was just joking around.

[DaddyTorgo]

dola

although that'd be a nice excuse to hide your vote if you are a wolf path

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by Alan T

The reason I "phrase" it as defending Kwhit is because you gave multiple "defenses" for him after I stated my reasons for wanting to vote him.



Was my reason here sound? Who knows. its day 1 vote, what do I know about people?



Your first defense was the alternate target defense of Sndvls whom you named without even giving a reason here. I don't understand the reasoning for throwing his name out without the "evidence" you wanted me to provide for kwhit.




The next defense was the one that he then popped in with saying "Yep thats the reason"

Like I said before, your actions got my wolf-radar tingling. You seemed alot more willing to give Kwhit the benefit of the doubt than you were for Barkeep, whom you placed a vote on simply because of Barkeep tossing out a rather silly reason to vote Cronin (for a day 1 vote that no one had anything but silly reasons to vote) as well as his having fun with DT stating he should return the favor on a vote on Sndvls (whom you later seemed to egg me into voting for in the same humerous manner)

So then Barkeep changed his vote for basically the same reason that Kwhit voted and you showed him the complete opposite reaction as you did for kwhit.



It just felt pretty inconsistant for your norm Hoops in how you handled similar situations through multiple people. Like I said, it just got me tingling, but you just felt all over the place on people and I am not sure why.

SnDvls was brought up because he was another person who put a vote out without any reason (placeholder vote). I just chose him as another person who was equally low key about their initial vote, albeit on a different person than KWhit selected.

If I was guilty of anything with KWhit, it was projecting my own initial trust of you onto his actions because they were consistent with my own - looking for people who seemed to be either directly or indirectly undermining your PM info. I have no idea which side he is playing on, but I wanted to better understand how you looked at the playing field and ended up with him as he was fairly low on my list of people I would have voted for at the time.

If I'm considering following you on a vote change, I think it is fair to ask you to explain your thought process and have a conversation about it. But it never got to that point because you did not cast a vote and didn't continue what was intended to be a conversation rather than just me posting on the topic.

We don't have as much time to finally get on the same page this game like we did the last time we found ourselves butting heads - the Resident Evil game. If I didn't already trust you as a villager because of the PM I would trust you more because your wolf MO with me has never been stubborn (like your earlier post suggested) but more of an info facilitator. So I'll make the assumption that we are on the same side again here for at least one more day. If you don't believe we're on the same side then you should vote for me and I'll do what I can to keep the group from following down a bad path.

[path12]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

I'm going to work with the assumption that one of our two wolves would have voted for a leading candidate yesterday. I think it is easier to blend in there than on an isolated candidate, all things being equal.

I don't think your theory is valid with a 3-3 sort of vote. Day 1 as a wolf I'd look to put a single somewhere else. I'm surprised you feel differently.

BTW, to Alan's post above about your 'defense' of KWhit. I don't see it at all in the first post he quoted, but I do understand his suspicion of the other one. You, ntndeacon and DT are probably my top three suspects right now. DT's a hunch as I stated before, ntn is playing the 'throw names out there' game and I just explained my current feeling about you....

[path12]

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

dola

although that'd be a nice excuse to hide your vote if you are a wolf path

It sure would. Alas, I'm just a villager though.

[SnDvls]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

NTN was as well. There was no sign of SnDvls.

correct I wasn't on or here as my post after my DT vote post indicates

[KWhit]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

I agree entirely with this. The case against KWhit is thinner than water, but I don't see anything else at all out there.

I am genuinely baffled by the people that are voting for me. My actions indicate a high probability of actually being a villager - however you want to spell it!

Oh well. It sucks that this is all surrounding the PM crap that Alan posted.

I tried to not make an issue of it which is why I voted Molly without giving a reason. Trying to do that seems to have backfired, and now I'm on the block.

My logic was perfect as far as MM was concerned (and I was proven to be correct). I cannot understand how that makes me suspicious.

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by path12

I don't think your theory is valid with a 3-3 sort of vote. Day 1 as a wolf I'd look to put a single somewhere else. I'm surprised you feel differently.

BTW, to Alan's post above about your 'defense' of KWhit. I don't see it at all in the first post he quoted, but I do understand his suspicion of the other one. You, ntndeacon and DT are probably my top three suspects right now. DT's a hunch as I stated before, ntn is playing the 'throw names out there' game and I just explained my current feeling about you....

3-3 out of 11 votes, when both of the leading votegetters are not wolves? I feel pretty strongly about the idea that a wolf would be on one of the two candidates. I'm surprised you feel differently.

[hoopsguy]

I would go as far as to say I think there is a better chance that both wolves are in that list than no wolves are on that list, based upon what I perceive to be standard wolf voting patterns.

[DaddyTorgo]

well you're wrong about me hoops. might want to get your wolf-dar checked.

[DaddyTorgo]

well you're wrong about me path. might want to get your wolf-dar checked.

[SnDvls]

I'm tending to follow Alan's line of thinking a lot more than yours here hoops. Also you blantly missed my point/post about not being on over the weekend.
With that said I still don't have any other reason to vote you. I'd stick with my day one vote, but it was random with out reason or merit and would put a 2nd vote on someone who probally doesn't deserve it so I'll hold out until more info comes up.

[DaddyTorgo]

triple-dola

clearly the later of the 2 posts is what i meant to actually say. dunno how hoops' name got in there. guess i'm tired

[hoopsguy]

Was trying to figure out where you were coming from on that one, DT. Since I had questioned your logic in Post #134 I didn't think I had made one mention of you as a wolf.

In terms of gut play at the moment, I've got you a little more likely wolf than the average villager, but I don't think it is a good percentage play relative to the voting patterns strategy that I'm reviewing.

Not going to vote for today - Alan T
Leaning towards trust - none
Middle - Peregrine, SnDvls, NTN
Leaning towards distrust - Daddy T
Conflicted - KWhit
Distrust - Path, Cronin

KWhit - maybe I am guilty of inadvertantly enabling him last night, but his actions struck with my knee-jerk reaction when I saw Molly's post last night.

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by SnDvls

I'm tending to follow Alan's line of thinking a lot more than yours here hoops. Also you blantly missed my point/post about not being on over the weekend.
With that said I still don't have any other reason to vote you. I'd stick with my day one vote, but it was random with out reason or merit and would put a 2nd vote on someone who probally doesn't deserve it so I'll hold out until more info comes up.

I didn't miss it, but you dropped a placeholder and weren't back. So how is that supposed to register as a better constructed vote than KWhit's vote? That was my point last night, although I clearly didn't do a good job of spelling it out. In your post above you clearly acknowledge that it was random and without merit.

If you guys insist on creating some kind of linkage between me and KWhit, so be it. I have no idea what team he is on, but I'm pretty much done arguing the point. I've explained my state of mind as thoroughly as I know how.

[path12]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

3-3 out of 11 votes, when both of the leading votegetters are not wolves? I feel pretty strongly about the idea that a wolf would be on one of the two candidates. I'm surprised you feel differently.

It looks as if we have a difference of opinion then. Let's try this:

UNVOTE DADDYTORGO
VOTE HOOPSGUY

If you want to vote me go ahead, I've got no role and am happy to be sacrificed. We can learn something from putting you on the block too though.

[MollyMurphy]

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

can we please start letting MM live past D1/N1. I'm starting to get really sad for her...cut her a damm break.

Sorry I won't be able to finish the game with you guys...good luck.

Thanks for the concern DT, but I have never been voted off Day 1 or Night 1. In fact, I won my first game and lasted quite a while in my second. Shear luck (not skill) on both accounts, but MM has a lot of fight in her. I'll get the hang of this game eventually. It was a fun day...thanks.

[DaddyTorgo]

Originally Posted by MollyMurphy

Sorry I won't be able to finish the game with you guys...good luck.

Thanks for the concern DT, but I have never been voted off Day 1 or Night 1. In fact, I won my first game and lasted quite a while in my second. Shear luck (not skill) on both accounts, but MM has a lot of fight in her. I'll get the hang of this game eventually. It was a fun day...thanks.

Lathum did say you were quite umm...feisty?

[SnDvls]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

I didn't miss it, but you dropped a placeholder and weren't back. So how is that supposed to register as a better constructed vote than KWhit's vote? That was my point last night, although I clearly didn't do a good job of spelling it out. In your post above you clearly acknowledge that it was random and without merit.

If you guys insist on creating some kind of linkage between me and KWhit, so be it. I have no idea what team he is on, but I'm pretty much done arguing the point. I've explained my state of mind as thoroughly as I know how.

I clearly said random reread it again.

[DaddyTorgo]

that's okay hoops...you seem to always have me slightly more wolfish and towards distrust when i'm a villager and it's yet to really come back to bite me, so i'm slightly reassured by that.

[DaddyTorgo]

good luck to who MM? The wolves who you wanted to win with? Or us innocent travelers?

[SnDvls]

dola -
not trying to make a linke either Hoops, just wanted to put a point of clarification on the argument as it related to me.

[st.cronin]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

I would go as far as to say I think there is a better chance that both wolves are in that list than no wolves are on that list, based upon what I perceive to be standard wolf voting patterns.

I don't know that there is a standard wolf voting pattern on day 1, any more than there is a standard villager voting pattern on day 1.

[st.cronin]

Only 3 votes so far:

2 - KWhit - stcronin (117), Peregrine (128)
1 - hoopsguy - path12 (175)

[st.cronin]

If KWhit turns up a wolf, I think hoopsguy is likely cleared based on his posts yesterday. I see the opposite of linkage. Hoops doesn't defend a fellow wolf that way, at least not in my experience. Maybe in a small game like this he would, but I doubt it.

[DaddyTorgo]

well i'm around from now till lynch. I likely won't vote till after dinner.

[SnDvls]

gonna vote now to force some people to commit

vote hoopsguy

I'll try to be back on before lynch.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by Alan T

Where did I say I cared how it looked? If I cared how it looked, wouldn't I have just thrown my vote away on kwhit and left it at that? Its a day 1 vote. Show me where I said that i cared how anyone else perceived my vote at all

Cronin, you like proving me wrong. I'm still waiting for a reply to this

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by path12

It looks as if we have a difference of opinion then. Let's try this:

UNVOTE DADDYTORGO
VOTE HOOPSGUY

If you want to vote me go ahead, I've got no role and am happy to be sacrificed. We can learn something from putting you on the block too though.

Just wondering if you see the irony of your vote here, as you say we have a difference of opinion and yet you are voting for someone who voted for one of the two dead people - the majority that I said contains wolves.

I'm in a 2-2 vote at this point, but I would prefer not to have to vote defensively. If the vote is not a "save myself" vote it is going to be headed towards either Path or Cronin today.

[hoopsguy]

So the votes for me are to:
1. Disagree with my point, but vote in accordance with my point (Path12)
2. Force a tie (SnDvls)

O-kay. I get that yesterday's top vote getters being dead is making today tough but I feel like I'm getting votes on account of arguing about Alan's (wrong) theory rather than sitting back and hoping it goes away.

[Peregrine]

Well I'm heading to bed, I won't be back before the lynch, so let's see if we can get an actual wolf this time? I'm feeling fairly good about my Kwhit vote, and a bit uncertain about the hoopsguy vote.

[hoopsguy]

OK, I know the safe play is to vote for KWhit and try to stay alive for another day. Maybe I'll fall back to that in a couple of hours if people insist on pushing my candidacy. The next safe plan is to vote for Path, who already has put his vote on me. But I'm suspicious that Cronin is playing the "knowing bad guy" role with his comments on me and KWhit. I've seen him do this in one other game when I was a good guy under suspicion (Big City) and I've talked myself into believing he is repeating an old trick. So even though this could end up burying me with another vote later I'll go with the guy I think is most likely to be a wolf.

VOTE ST.CRONIN

[hoopsguy]

2 - KWhit - stcronin (117), Peregrine (128)
2 - hoopsguy - path12 (175), SnDvls (186)
1 - St.Cronin - hoopsguy (191)

[ntndeacon]

Originally Posted by Alan T

You posted that after Hoops had posted defending kwhit. So I had assumed you were referring to that in your post.

you are right that my comment did come after hoops discussion of Kwhit. But he did not give any indication of a candidate to change to or away from in my mind. I am not sure how serious you were about the changing to Kwhit idea. even if you read into that post that iwould follow hoops, your post is not that far removed that it could have given you at least a hint that iwould join you in your vote. However all it got was swept over.

[hoopsguy]

I also want to make sure I'm understanding just how people think I might play as a wolf:

1.) Cast a defense of another player for no apparent reason (KWhit)
2.) Call for the seer to scan MM, then kill MM that night
3.) Argue with over half the players in the game on Day 2

I know it has been awhile since I had a wolf role on Day 1, but I like to think I would handle my business just a little bit better than this. My usual MO as a wolf is less confrontational, less gut-based, and more analytical while pointing in the wrong direction. I don't think I've done any of those things here - I think my play just screams villager, but obviously I'm the only one with complete information (except a possible seer) on this point.

[st.cronin]

Originally Posted by Alan T

Cronin, you like proving me wrong. I'm still waiting for a reply to this

Its how I'm interpreting this sentiment:

Originally Posted by Alan T

I am guessing I am stuck with villager vs villager to choose from here. The person I want to vote for is kwhit, but doing so is the same as voting molly at this point.

My feeling is, a villager votes for who he wants to vote for. I don't feel particularly strongly about this, it just seemed like a curious route to take.

[st.cronin]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

I also want to make sure I'm understanding just how people think I might play as a wolf:

1.) Cast a defense of another player for no apparent reason (KWhit)
2.) Call for the seer to scan MM, then kill MM that night
3.) Argue with over half the players in the game on Day 2

I know it has been awhile since I had a wolf role on Day 1, but I like to think I would handle my business just a little bit better than this. My usual MO as a wolf is less confrontational, less gut-based, and more analytical while pointing in the wrong direction. I don't think I've done any of those things here - I think my play just screams villager, but obviously I'm the only one with complete information (except a possible seer) on this point.

I don't have any particular feeling on your wolfiness, I just don't see a linkage. The best linkage I see is between Alan T and KWhit - Alan T said yesterday he wanted to vote for KWhit, but existential concerns prevented it. Today he has apparently changed his mind, for reasons which are opaque to me..

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by ntndeacon

you are right that my comment did come after hoops discussion of Kwhit. But he did not give any indication of a candidate to change to or away from in my mind. I am not sure how serious you were about the changing to Kwhit idea. even if you read into that post that iwould follow hoops, your post is not that far removed that it could have given you at least a hint that iwould join you in your vote. However all it got was swept over.

I guess I should go back and check timestamps then. Perhaps its just a case of the groups of posts I read together. I made my comments and you hadnt posted by the time I left for a bit. when I came back later, in my head I read it with Hoops's comments. I'll have to see if you actually did post it close to my conversation, and I just messed it up due to when I read it.

Originally Posted by st.cronin

Its how I'm interpreting this sentiment:



My feeling is, a villager votes for who he wants to vote for. I don't feel particularly strongly about this, it just seemed like a curious route to take.

So you are using one sentence that doesnt even mention me caring what everyone else thinks and completely ignore the many many posts I made explaining why at the time I didnt want to vote either them, nor after the fact why I didnt want to vote either of them?

This is really strange for you considering you have always said no lynch is better than lynching a villager on day 1. Or maybe its just a convienant arguement for you to try to make right now Either way, you have taken one sentence and chosen to leave out the explanation given with it and instead put your own reasoning.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

I don't have any particular feeling on your wolfiness, I just don't see a linkage. The best linkage I see is between Alan T and KWhit - Alan T said yesterday he wanted to vote for KWhit, but existential concerns prevented it. Today he has apparently changed his mind, for reasons which are opaque to me..

If you want me to be a bit less opaque, its because coming in this morning I was feeling kwhit + hoops = the two wolves. Now I feel its you + hoops. So lost my desire to vote for kwhit

[st.cronin]

Originally Posted by Alan T

I guess I should go back and check timestamps then. Perhaps its just a case of the groups of posts I read together. I made my comments and you hadnt posted by the time I left for a bit. when I came back later, in my head I read it with Hoops's comments. I'll have to see if you actually did post it close to my conversation, and I just messed it up due to when I read it.



So you are using one sentence that doesnt even mention me caring what everyone else thinks and completely ignore the many many posts I made explaining why at the time I didnt want to vote either them, nor after the fact why I didnt want to vote either of them?

This is really strange for you considering you have always said no lynch is better than lynching a villager on day 1. Or maybe its just a convienant arguement for you to try to make right now Either way, you have taken one sentence and chosen to leave out the explanation given with it and instead put your own reasoning.

Were you arguing for a no-lynch? If so, I missed it. My analysis is primarily based on the fact that you didn't vote, not what you said.

[st.cronin]

Originally Posted by Alan T

If you want me to be a bit less opaque, its because coming in this morning I was feeling kwhit + hoops = the two wolves. Now I feel its you + hoops. So lost my desire to vote for kwhit

Based on what? It would be nice if people in this game started actually giving reasons. Looking at you and hoops right now.