01-22-2008, 10:20 AM | #151 | |
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Join Date: Dec 2002
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Quote:
I'm not quite sure what dynamic the wolves will use in this game, as Chief said they know who each other are and are out to kill each other. I am guessing they have something in place that they can't come directly out and point fingers at each other, but I am guessing that when possible they will try to leave clues via voting patterns of some sort. Ie: when a wolf is finally found and fired, if we were to look back at who they voted for are they more likely to have voted for the other team's wolves, giving us a path on whom to go after next, or would they have been more likely to have gone after a villager and leave us in the dark? I just figure on day 1 wolves are more interested in blending in and staying away from having all of the spotlight on them, yet they still will be wanting to try to lay a path for later use in their voting. I don't know if the Bulletsponge vote is as much of the second as it is the first.. it was the easiest place to throw a vote that seemingly appears for an arguable reason that has deniability... They vote for BS now, he ends up getting fired and is an ordinary villager, they then say, "well he joked he was a wolf, how was I to know?" It is definitly not a theory I would push hard on day 3, 4, 5 and on.. and it wasn't something I was really going to push today. Was just making my vote and leaving it be unless something came up causing me to want to either change my vote or push harder. So thats my thought process really, nothing great just I think random votes are dumb and I hate 20 people voting for 20 others leaving for a huge scramble at the end of the day that half the time is just other villagers that we focus too much on for days for no good reason. |
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01-22-2008, 10:55 AM | #152 |
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01-22-2008, 10:58 AM | #153 |
Grizzled Veteran
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Nothing better than Day 1 vote rationale
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01-22-2008, 10:59 AM | #154 |
Coordinator
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01-22-2008, 11:04 AM | #155 | |
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I'm not sure the bosses will want to keep someone around who openly steals money from the company. Plus once you get canned Jennifer Aniston will dump your ass....better for us who are employed. |
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01-22-2008, 11:08 AM | #156 |
Pro Starter
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checking in
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01-22-2008, 11:08 AM | #157 |
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01-22-2008, 11:10 AM | #158 | |
Coordinator
Join Date: Oct 2000
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Quote:
I'm a little confused by this. You mention that you think the wolves will leave clues by their voting patterns, but then you express doubt the next paragraph by asking if we think that the wolves will vote for the other wolf team, or for villagers. Sounds like we're back at square one. It seems like you have a lot of the same rationale as me regarding bullet. I guess we chose different actions as a result of it, which I think is okay. |
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01-22-2008, 11:19 AM | #159 |
Pro Starter
Join Date: Jul 2001
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VOTE BREAKDOWN
for those interested or needing it like me Clap - Lathum (90) Bullet - Barkeep (95), Oile (110) Lathum - Clap (97) Olie - Alan (123), Schmidty (134) Barkeep - path (130) Schmidty - Mauboy (135) Pass - ntn (136) ntn - Pass (147) Jackal - jeheinz (148) jeheinz - Bullet (152) hope this helps |
01-22-2008, 11:27 AM | #160 |
Favored Bitch #1
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: homeless in NJ
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Things are to spread out IMO.
Unvote Claphamsa Vote OlieGirl I think it is in our best interest to narrow things down a bit, plus Schmidty's vote for her pinged me for some reason. It seems to me Schmidty is almost always one of the last people to vote and today he got his vote in early. |
01-22-2008, 11:36 AM | #161 | |
Grey Dog Software
Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: Phoenix, AZ by way of Belleville, IL
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Quote:
The reason I ask is that it would be interesting if the observer could tell the difference between the real seer (gossip lady) and the fake one (the fool). Because, after re-reading the front page - no one (not even the real seer or fool) will know this until one is voted off. Is that right? I'm also not sure how the fish works. But, given I'm not a wolf I'm not too worried about it. The biggest interest to me is figuring out the relationship between the seer, observer and fool. It seems to me that we may have two people who feel they are the seer that will be adamant about who to vote off - when one may be fed the wrong info. That means that if the observer could tell the group who the fool is at some point, that would be a huge advantage for us workers and the real seer - even if it meant the observer would be "outed". Of course, if the observer can't tell the difference between the gossip lady and the fool, then we need to realize that as well. I'm thinking it's the latter case, but it would be a big factor if the observer could tell the difference between the two. |
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01-22-2008, 11:45 AM | #162 | |
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Location: Stuck in Yinzerville, PA
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Quote:
But wouldn't it be easier for the wolves to vote as a "pack" the first day or two because they could just play it off as a random vote? Because since there are so many of us it will be easier for them to play it off as a random vote and hope it goes unnoticed. I don't know why but Lathum teaming up with Schmidty is throwing a red flag up for me; stating the fact that Schmidty always votes early. Maybe he did it to throw everyone off his scent and by Lathum pointing that out he is trying to hide the fact that he is a wolf. Therefore, by that convoluted reasoning.... VOTE LATHUM |
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01-22-2008, 11:49 AM | #163 | |
Grey Dog Software
Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: Phoenix, AZ by way of Belleville, IL
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Quote:
So, I'm left with the votes on Bullet, Ollie, Schmidty, Barkeep, Jackal and JeHeinz. The Jackal "newbie" vote seems random by JH. Given JeHeinz worked me like a speed bag in the last game and saved our bacon, I'll give him a pass. So, now it's Bullet, Ollie, Schmidty or Barkeep. In the interest of self preservation, it makes sense to go Ollie or Bullet. So, I'll throw my first guess at a wolf and: Vote Bulletsponge |
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01-22-2008, 11:51 AM | #164 |
Grey Dog Software
Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: Phoenix, AZ by way of Belleville, IL
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Hmm, didn't see Lathum's unvote. That does look a little fishy. I may change mine later tonight if a good case is made.
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01-22-2008, 12:00 PM | #165 |
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01-22-2008, 12:01 PM | #166 | |
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Quote:
In case anyone cares, I will 99% be changing my vote later..... That and i wont be around for the deadline (got a hockey game tongiht :P)
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01-22-2008, 12:02 PM | #167 |
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im not really seeing any concensus about anything... other than us all being normal workers...
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01-22-2008, 12:05 PM | #168 | |||
Favored Bitch #1
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: homeless in NJ
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Quote:
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01-22-2008, 12:09 PM | #169 |
Head Cheerleader
Join Date: Oct 2003
Location: Caught somewhere between Raising Hell and Amazing Grace...
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Ugh...I'm not a wolf guys. Kill me off and you are going to be down one dedicated employee.
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01-22-2008, 12:13 PM | #170 |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Where Hip Hop lives
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I'm back!
Not for good reasons. I ate something I guess doesn't settle with me. Tried to work through it, but nothing doing. So now I am home again, and will likely be sleeping most of the day before I decide if I can make my next job. None of this changes the deadline, of course. It does, however, change where to contact me. If you sent me an email at my work address after 7:30 a.m. PDT (10:30 EST), I did not see it, and you will need to PM your question to me here. Sorry for the inconvenience. Going forward, just go ahead PM me here for the rest of the day, although since I will be mostly sleeping, I might not be able to get back to you right away. I will respond well before deadline, though.
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01-22-2008, 12:17 PM | #171 |
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Bummer, that sucks CR.
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01-22-2008, 12:18 PM | #172 | |
Favored Bitch #1
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Quote:
I put stricnine in the Guacamole |
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01-22-2008, 12:19 PM | #173 |
Coordinator
Join Date: Jan 2001
Location: Not too far away
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path mentioned how BS has built "I am a wolf" into his game. I'm not sure those sort of declarations are the sort we should just casually brush off. Especially because he's made such a declaration while being a wolf. I think voting for BS is wiser than voting for ollie.
Good news here is that the wolves typical D1 advantage is considerably muted and we stand a good chance, between 30 and 40 percent, of hitting a wolf today with our semi-random votes. |
01-22-2008, 12:19 PM | #174 | |
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Quote:
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01-22-2008, 12:30 PM | #175 |
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01-22-2008, 12:43 PM | #176 |
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Yes, i will change my vote, but i wont be around at the deadline.... ill be here till 730 EST.
That being said, i think i have the begninngs of the flu that is going around. so who knows if ill play (hockey) or not.
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01-22-2008, 12:44 PM | #177 |
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01-22-2008, 01:25 PM | #178 |
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I'm at sundance until tomorrow, so my activity today will be sporadic, and I won't be around at the deadline. Parties are fun.
I don't think much of heinze's vote for me, but if he doesn't change it I'll be a little skeptical. As of now I'm not going to put a vote on anyone, but I should be around most of the afternoon so I'll look over the posts and see what else people have to say. |
01-22-2008, 01:26 PM | #179 | |
Head Cheerleader
Join Date: Oct 2003
Location: Caught somewhere between Raising Hell and Amazing Grace...
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Quote:
This is my logic in voting for him, obviously. I'm really surprised people are voting for me based on this, especially when BS (I giggle whenever I type that) said that he's done this before as a wolf, and I pointed out pre-game that DT had done this last game and was a wolf, and even made the comment "once bitten twice shy". We are usually floundering around on Day 1 looking for a reason to vote for someone where there isn't one, or just casting a totally random vote that doesn't mean anything. Here we have a substantiated reason to vote for someone, yet people are voting for me instead. I don't get that logic. Anyone who votes for me is making a mistake. |
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01-22-2008, 01:31 PM | #180 | |
Coordinator
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Big Ten Country
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Quote:
I don't get the reasoning. You think Schmidty might have some intuition, and that's why he voted early? The fact that he voted early makes me more suspicious of him than olie. |
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01-22-2008, 01:33 PM | #181 | |
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Quote:
Yeah, I certainly don't get people voting for you over BS (heheh). I can't follow that logic. With that said though, I can't decide if I'm going to go down that road, especially since it'll seem retalitory alan tndeacon and pass's votes for each other. Right now I'm on Jackal, I'm open to ideas. |
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01-22-2008, 01:50 PM | #182 | |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Dec 2002
Location: Mass.
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Quote:
I had to read this twice to realize you wern't talking about me. I was trying to figure out what I had to do with ntn or pass, as I didn't really have any feel for either of them yet.. then realized you wern't talking about me and just had a spacebar malfunction |
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01-22-2008, 01:50 PM | #183 | |
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Quote:
vote Jackal this was purposefully not bolded just to show my jealousy. Let us know how it is. |
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01-22-2008, 01:52 PM | #184 | |
Pro Rookie
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Haha, stinkin' no-editing-rule! |
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01-22-2008, 01:54 PM | #185 | |
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Quote:
__________________
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01-22-2008, 02:01 PM | #186 | |
Favored Bitch #1
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: homeless in NJ
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Quote:
The reasoning is that if Schmidty is a wolf it is completly plausible Oliegirl is also a wolf. Schmidty's vote was very out of characture for him which IMO leads me to believe he has some insight. The only insight he could possibly have at this juncture is if he is a wolf and knows who the other wolves are. I realize it isn't much but what on day one is? I went with Oliegirl over Schmidty because she already had votes on her and I think it is more important this game for there to be some clear cut voting patterns from the start. IF the vote is spread out that only hurts us. I would be just as OK voting Schmidty, if he is a wolf I think Oliegirl is also and vice versa. |
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01-22-2008, 02:04 PM | #187 |
Pro Starter
Join Date: Jul 2001
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what's the strikethrough code for words?
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01-22-2008, 02:05 PM | #188 |
Pro Starter
Join Date: Jul 2001
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dola so I can update the vote tally
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01-22-2008, 02:07 PM | #189 |
Grizzled Veteran
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Stuck in Yinzerville, PA
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I think it is (strike) (/strike)
replacing ( ) with <> |
01-22-2008, 02:08 PM | #190 |
Pro Starter
Join Date: Jul 2001
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Clap -
Bullet 3 - Barkeep (95), Oile (110), Arles (163) Lathum 2 - Clap (97), bsak (162) Olie 3 - Alan (123), Schmidty (134), Lathum (160) Barkeep - path (130) Schmidty - Mauboy (135) Pass - ntn (136) ntn - Pass (147) Jackal - jeheinz (148) jeheinz - Bullet (152) |
01-22-2008, 02:08 PM | #191 |
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01-22-2008, 02:15 PM | #192 | |
Hall Of Famer
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: Where Hip Hop lives
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Quote:
Well, hoping it really is a food thing. I ate two things last night, and one of them starts with an M and makes burning hot coffee. Get the picture? Might not head back there for some time (okay, probably ever). I am starting to feel better after this latest, uh, clearing, so hopefully I am around the corner on the way to being good. It does suck, though. Enough about my digestive system, back to the game.
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. . I would rather be wrong...Than live in the shadows of your song...My mind is open wide...And now I'm ready to start...You're not sure...You open the door...And step out into the dark...Now I'm ready. |
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01-22-2008, 02:17 PM | #193 |
Pro Starter
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: TX
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i have 3 votes for me
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01-22-2008, 02:17 PM | #194 |
Pro Starter
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Location: TX
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let me just add im not a wolf
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01-22-2008, 02:19 PM | #195 |
Pro Rookie
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Location: Fresno, CA
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Tell me more. I was riveted.
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01-22-2008, 02:46 PM | #196 |
Coordinator
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01-22-2008, 02:48 PM | #197 |
Coordinator
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Location: Big Ten Country
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No, I'm pretty sure he does have 3 votes for him.
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01-22-2008, 03:30 PM | #198 |
Pro Starter
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01-22-2008, 03:32 PM | #199 |
Coordinator
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VOTE BULLETSPONGE
I hate odd numbers. |
01-22-2008, 03:56 PM | #200 |
Favored Bitch #1
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: homeless in NJ
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Here are the last 9 number 1 overall picks. Who has done more so far then Eli?
1998 Indianapolis Peyton Manning, QB, Tennessee 1999 Cleveland Tim Couch, QB, Kentucky 2000 Cleveland Courtney Brown, DE, Penn State 2001 Atlanta Michael Vick, QB, Virginia Tech 2002 Houston David Carr, QB, Fresno State 2003 Cincinnati Carson Palmer, QB, USC 2004 San Diego Eli Manning, QB, Mississippi 2005 San Francisco Alex Smith, QB Utah 2006 Houston Mario Williams, DE North Carolina State |
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