WW LXVII -- The Return of Divination Nation! (GAME OVER STUDENTS WIN!!!)

[Pumpy Tudors]

I don't really understand what any of you are saying. Let's just get rid of the wolves!!

[Lathum]

CR, I thought the same thing but if all 21 had a "scan partner" so to say that would mean all 21 of us would be scanned the first night and the odds that multiple wolves would be outed could really mess the game up.

[Lathum]

Also, If I was a wolf I wouldn't be the first one to clear another player. I would wait to see if someone had a succesfull scan of me then counter.

[nfg22]

Maybe you are a wolf and that is why you thought of this!?

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by nfg22

Maybe you are a wolf and that is why you thought of this!?

thought of what?

[Lorena]

Originally Posted by MikeVic

I'm a student but not everyone likes me.

I like you Mike, you came up good.

[nfg22]

Originally Posted by Lathum

thought of what?

What a wolf would think...

[nfg22]

we are now 13-0...hmm...something seems different than would seem is true...

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by nfg22

What a wolf would think...

I always try to think like a wolf, it's a good way to get in your opponents head.

[nfg22]

Originally Posted by Lathum

I always try to think like a wolf, it's a good way to get in your opponents head.

it is a good way to be an opponent....im just messin im bored...

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by nfg22

it is a good way to be an opponent....im just messin im bored...

discussion is always encourged

[MikeVic]

Originally Posted by Dodgerchick

I like you Mike, you came up good.

Thanks.

As I was catching up in the thread, I was also going to suggest that wolves might have picked a duplicate student scan... but then path cleared it up that it's possible for the same person to get multiple student results.

So that means we'll get some people not showing up in scans ! I don't know what to think.

[ntndeacon]

Well one thing to note if we have 21 innocent "scans" said then at least one scan is false. I think the wolves would not do a false wolf on night 0, I imagine they will just blend in.

[Mr. Wednesday]

Passacaglia came up clean.

One thing that's not exactly clear is, does our accuracy remain constant? Has each of us been assigned an accuracy that will be with us throughout the game?

If so, we may want to be a little bit circumspect with our reveals of nightly scans. I think it's essential that we share that information, but I worry about making it too easy for the wolves to identify the high-accuracy seers (or, equivalently, the low-accuracy seers).

[ntndeacon]

I would guess that our accuracy is fixed. Mr. Wednesday it will be tough enough to determine how right we are.

[nfg22]

Then how do you propose to keep it secret and be able to tell who has a high accuracy? I personally think our best plan is to find out the 75%+ people and use them to kill the wolves. If we can do this by day 5, it is an easy win, no matter how many the wolves kill. We just need 2-3 people that have that much accuracy.

[MikeVic]

What if there's one guy with 100%, one guy with 75%, and the rest are at 10% or something?

[ntndeacon]

That may be Mike, but ireally doubt it.

[nfg22]

Most likely there will be one 100...then with 16 people, there will be probably 2-4 above 75. Again, its random because he used d-20 but probability on 80 rolls becomes more standard. A sample size of 80 is not too bad, with 30 being the usual accepted size in most research, this is actually a good size. Then again, 1-20 is a larger size for outcome meaning more of a chance of outliers. I am confident in saying that 52% will be within ten percent of the mean.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

Actually, I was meaning to try to figure that out, because I am not 100% sure that's true. But it will take some math work. It would be nice if we had a statitstician in the group.

I haven't finished the thread yet, but I'm a big stats guy, so I can hopefully offer up some answers -- but not now, I just spent 7 hours taking a train from Detroit to Chicago to avoid this big storm that was supposed to hit, only to arrive and see all the snow that was here last week has melted. 13 inches my ass.

Anyway, I scanned pumpy, and he came up good.

[claphamsa]

wow its raining here... no snow

[Chief Rum]

All right, I did some workups on an Excel spreadsheet, and here's about what I came up with. I suspect the numbers on each side of the peak should be the same, but I probably missed something somewhere. But I am pretty confident I am close on the proper breakdown.

Here goes:

Accuracy Range (% of group likely to be in that range)

5-15% (.03% of group)
16-23% (.95% of group)
24-31% (4.2% of group)
32-39% (10.9% of group)
40-47% (19.2% of group)
48-55% (23.6% of group)
56-63% (20.8% of group)
64-71% (13.0% of group)
72-79% (5.6% of group)
80-87% (1.5% of group)
88-100% (.19% of group)

Assuming five wolves and discounting Teacher's Pet and Fool (14 others)...

Likely only 1-2 players outside of the 32%-71% range (and the chances of getting 5 or 100 is infinitesimal).

*--more probable

1-2 from 32-39%
2-3* from 40-47%
3*-4 from 48-55%
3 from 56-63%
2 from 64-71%

Assuming four wolves and discounting Teacher's Pet and Fool (15 others)...

Likely only 1-2 players outside of the 32%-71% range (and the chances of getting 5 or 100 is infinitesimal).

*--more probable

1-2 from 32-39%
3 from 40-47%
3-4 from 48-55%
3 from 56-63%
2 from 64-71%

The mean was 51-52%, as expected.

[Chief Rum]

Going off of 5 wolves (worst case scenario) and assuming a tendency toward the mean (meaning higher numbers closer to the means), I get the following:

1 from 24-31 (Total 1*27.5 = 27.5) --coulda picked 72-79, but figured this would be worst case scenario
1 from 32-39 (Total 1*35.5 = 35.5)
3 from 40-47 (Total 3*43.5 = 130.5)
4 from 48-55 (Total 4*51.5 = 206)
3 from 56-63 (Total 3*59.5 = 178.5)
2 from 64-71 (Total 2*67.5 = 135)

Total = 713
Average Acc% = 50.9%

[Chief Rum]

Updated through post #173:

claphamsa (2 V/ 0 W)-- Lathum (V; 90), oliegirl (V; 96)
Pumpy Tudors (2 V/ 0 W)-- claphamsa (V; 92 & 103), ntndeacon (V; 133)
Mr. Wednesday (1 V/ 0 W)-- Barkeep49 (V; 97)
saldana (1 V / 0 W)-- nfg22 (V; 98)
Greyroofoo (1 V / 0 W)-- MikeVic (V; 101)
nfg22 (1 V / 0 W)-- mauboy1 (V; 102)
Chief Rum (1 V / 0 W)-- SnDvls (V; 111)
Lathum (1 V / 0 W)-- Chief Rum (V; 113)
bsak16 (1 V / 0 W)-- Render (V; 119)
MikeVic (2 V / 0 W)-- The Jackal (V; 122), Dodgerchick (V; 156)
Dodgerchick (1 V / 0 W)-- Greyroofoo (V; 141)
Passacaglia (1 V / 0 W)-- Mr. Wednesday (V; 164)

Total scans announced as of post #173.

15 total scans== (15 V / 0 W).

Hasn't announced scan yet (6): jeheinz72, Passacaglia, saldana, st.cronin, Pumpy Tudors, bsak16

Not a scan target yet (9): Barkeep49, Render, mauboy1, jeheinz72, ntndeacon, oliegirl, st.cronin, The Jackal, SnDvls

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by nfg22

You dont like my numbers/ They are perfect. You are a wolf!

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Greyroofoo

Just to throw something out there, path could've made it so most students have a 25%-30% success rate.

There were a few suggestions of not so random numbering, but nothing in the rules path put up suggests that. In fact, he is pretty clear about rolling the d20 five times to determine accuracy for everyone (outside of wolves and others with exact accuracies, of course).

So until I hear otherwise, I am going to assume that's exactly what he did.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by path12

I assure all players that the specific verbiage is virtually the same for all players, barring my occasional lapses with villager/student and such.

So wolves received the scan verbiage on N0? They don't scan (nor need to), right?

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by path12

I will not divulge any circumstances regarding N0 choices other than to say that duplication is indeed possible, and that the process was completely up to me alone.

Well, at least we don't have to wrap our minds around that one.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Mr. Wednesday

Passacaglia came up clean.

One thing that's not exactly clear is, does our accuracy remain constant? Has each of us been assigned an accuracy that will be with us throughout the game?

Might as well clear this up.

path, are our starting accuracies essentially locked into stone (outside of mechanics might change our accuracies from time to time, I mean)?

[Chief Rum]

Whoops, I missed Pass's scan of Pumpy; I added it in...

Updated through post #173:

claphamsa (2 V/ 0 W)-- Lathum (V; 90), oliegirl (V; 96)
Pumpy Tudors (3 V/ 0 W)-- claphamsa (V; 92 & 103), ntndeacon (V; 133), Passacaglia (V; 170)
Mr. Wednesday (1 V/ 0 W)-- Barkeep49 (V; 97)
saldana (1 V / 0 W)-- nfg22 (V; 98)
Greyroofoo (1 V / 0 W)-- MikeVic (V; 101)
nfg22 (1 V / 0 W)-- mauboy1 (V; 102)
Chief Rum (1 V / 0 W)-- SnDvls (V; 111)
Lathum (1 V / 0 W)-- Chief Rum (V; 113)
bsak16 (1 V / 0 W)-- Render (V; 119)
MikeVic (2 V / 0 W)-- The Jackal (V; 122), Dodgerchick (V; 156)
Dodgerchick (1 V / 0 W)-- Greyroofoo (V; 141)
Passacaglia (1 V / 0 W)-- Mr. Wednesday (V; 164)

Total scans announced as of post #173.

16 total scans== (16 V / 0 W).

Hasn't announced scan yet (5): jeheinz72, saldana, st.cronin, Pumpy Tudors, bsak16

Not a scan target yet (9): Barkeep49, Render, mauboy1, jeheinz72, ntndeacon, oliegirl, st.cronin, The Jackal, SnDvls

[Chief Rum]

I'm not going to go up and down on the accuracy charts right now, as it is getting late, and I want to go to bed. So I'm going with the 50.9% accuracy rating and again assuming five wolves. I am also going to assume the Fool, Teacher's Pet and all of the wolves have checked in.

With 16 scans announced, taking out the above seven, we have nine scans at a minimum that should have fallen under path's initial accuracy roles.

If there are 5 wolves, we have a 23.8% chance of the person we are targeting actually being a wolf. With 9 scans, it is statistically strongest that 2 wolves have been scanned, and 7 students.

We have a 50.9% chance (on average) of being accurate. In order for us to get ALL villagers at this point, we would have to roll false on the 2 wolves (2*49.1% = 24.1%) and roll true on 7 students (7*50.9% = 0.89%). The chances of both of these odds not having a "W" show up (accurate or not) is 0.21%!

Something funky is going on here. I don't trust these numbers open night numbers at all. I am beginning to suspect we all received villager scans and should throw these out.

[Dr. Sak]

My night view shows that saldana is a student.

[Pumpy Tudors]

All these numbers are hurting my head.

[Dr. Sak]

It's best to read Chief Rum's posts with a pot of coffee at hand...and remember...even though he is being extremely "helpful"...stats can be manipulated.

That's the excuse I am using since I slept through my college statistics classes.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by nfg22

Then how do you propose to keep it secret and be able to tell who has a high accuracy? I personally think our best plan is to find out the 75%+ people and use them to kill the wolves. If we can do this by day 5, it is an easy win, no matter how many the wolves kill. We just need 2-3 people that have that much accuracy.

Not sure how we could keep it secret, but if someone shows they have a high accurasy they wll probably be killed immedeatetly.

[Lorena]

I don't know who's who (with the exception of MikeVic, granted that my scan is actually good), but these numbers are giving me a headache.

[Lorena]

Originally Posted by claphamsa

thanks lathum

I scanned someone named pump twodoors, so I might be the fool (or the boss is drunk)

Gonna keep this post in mind as the spelling is really off. Could be the fool, or a baddie trying to blend in.

[nfg22]

Originally Posted by Dodgerchick

Gonna keep this post in mind as the spelling is really off. Could be the fool, or a baddie trying to blend in.

I think you are wrong about that being suspicious, but if you want to add more suspicion to it, add in the fact that Claph didnt declare whether Pumpy was good or bad and also that in the later post where Claph did, the quote is under the answer.

[nfg22]

I am also up with discarding day one votes...they seem off.

[nfg22]

Maybe the wolves find out they are wolves tommorrow, or maybe we havent completed classes yet so we dont know how to distinguish...Ill think on this more but basically I dont like the numbers so far

[Pumpy Tudors]

Well, I think the point is that all of you are wolves and you're trying to trick me.

[Pumpy Tudors]

Dola

Or you're trying to fuck me. I'm not really sure which. I've never been fucked by a wolf before, at least not without a paying audience present.

[Lorena]

Originally Posted by Pumpy Tudors

Well, I think the point is that all of you are wolves and you're trying to trick me.

That's my mentality every game. The one person you trust will ending up effing you in the a-hole, so be weary.

[Passacaglia]

I'm wondering if maybe one of the people who haven't announced who their scan was might have scanned a wolf, and are just afraid to say anything? I can't imagine that path would set our night scans up so that they would automatically be villagers -- that seems to compromise the whole point of the game, if it's forced on N0. I'm thinking, if I were a student, and I received a scan that someone was a wolf, but I knew that I couldn't be sure about it, I'd want to hold on to that info -- if I called someone out as a wolf D1 and was wrong, I'd end up as a D2 casualty -- maybe not for being a wolf, but at least for being a poor seer.

[Schmidty]

I hope you all die.

[Schmidty]

Dola.

I should say: I hope some of you die.

[Schmidty]

Dola.

Forgot the

[Dr. Sak]

Originally Posted by Dodgerchick

That's my mentality every game. The one person you trust will ending up effing you in the a-hole, so be weary.

So you know this from experience...hmmm...interesting.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by Schmidty

Dola.

I should say: I hope some of you die.

I have a feeling you will get your wish.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by MikeVic

What if there's one guy with 100%, one guy with 75%, and the rest are at 10% or something?

I actually think being at 10% is as good as being at 90%, as long as we're aware of it. The guys you don't want are at 50% -- they're really telling you nothing.