WW Dukes Versus Hunters (GAME OVER!!--See Post #1387)

[EagleFan]

Originally Posted by Shoveler

Something about font today is off for me as well. I'm not ready to move my vote quite yet though as it's still plenty early.

I'm afraid to respond to this...

[EagleFan]

So far only one vote looks odd to me, Vaimes immediate unvote and piggyback onto my vote. But I have a feeling that odd moves (at least as I see it) will be the norm for him.

[fontisian]

Nah, Vaimes is town, as per usual.

[timmae]

Ok, long day at work. Did a quick reread to get up to date. I like what I have seen from font, narc, shoveler, Brit, EF and jag. Vaimes seems like normal vaimes. Cheeki, Grover and raven to a smaller extent seem a bit quiet but I havent read them well and/or they have been in tough positions the last few games. Jackal seems the most pingy so far.

unvote cheeki
Vote jackal

[EagleFan]

Always interesting that she immediately declares Vaimes town. If he is town again I can't wait to see what the tell must be for her to know so certainly about him on day one each game.

[JAG]

Originally Posted by fontisian

How exactly would it give cover for "random duking"?

Well, true, you weren't talking about 'random' duking, just duking to someone that had group suspicion. I stand by my other points though. Can I ask why you haven't voted?

[EagleFan]

Goal Jets!!!

(sorry, don't have a horse in the race but love the playoffs)

[fontisian]

Originally Posted by JAG

Well, true, you weren't talking about 'random' duking, just duking to someone that had group suspicion. I stand by my other points though. Can I ask why you haven't voted?

Nothing stuck out to me until that post of yours and timmae's most recent post. I'll make a serious vote when I have a serious vote to make.

Explain your other points, then. How exactly would my strategy risk offing a town power role?

[The Jackal]

Originally Posted by timmae

Jackal seems the most pingy so far.

unvote cheeki
Vote jackal

What has been pingy?

[The Jackal]

Are you anti-batman and/or daniel day lewis?

[timmae]

Originally Posted by The Jackal

Are you anti-batman and/or daniel day lewis?

Didn't get the 2nd reference. Probably just thrown off by the shorter posts and quick vote. And my shitty day at work. Not much else to go on in my first read through.

[Zinto]

My name is Zinto and I am here to say, that I am here to rap in a werewolf way.

[Zinto]

Vote Vaimes

[Zinto]

Are we looking to be cautious with our duke/hunter abilities? I think that anyone who is the top vote getter will duke out(it just seems like the thing someone would do) and I agree with whoever said that we should at least discuss a duking or hunter shot before hand.

[Shoveler]

Originally Posted by Zinto

Are we looking to be cautious with our duke/hunter abilities? I think that anyone who is the top vote getter will duke out(it just seems like the thing someone would do) and I agree with whoever said that we should at least discuss a duking or hunter shot before hand.

I guess there are a couple potential ways for the village to win in this game.

1. The village lynches the wolves
2. The village shoots the wolves
3. The village lynches and shoots the wolves.

Now, if a vanilla villager is about to be lynched today, and they duke to a village hunter. The original vanilla villager is going to look suspicious, and most likely be lynched the next day. So in this situation, the village loses valuable time.

If someone other than the lynch leader dukes at the end of the day, that person is going to look suspicious and will be lynched on the next day.

Now, we could also assume that the person that was revealed as having duked could be shot by a hunter on the next day before the lynch, thereby saving the lynch vote for the village. But due to the rules regarding the first hunter using their ability is the only one for the day, we can't rely on having the duke shot dead to reveal their alignment.

Unless someone can offer up a good counter assessment of these abilities, I believe using either of them early in the game has a greater chance of hurting the village simply due to the odds of hitting other villagers.

As to font's point about hitting roled villagers, the odds are about as good as hitting a wolf. So at this point it is most likely that using these abilities end up clearing out the vanillas.

Typing this is probably moot. I would suspect the same as zinto that a vanilla duke is going to use their ability to save themselves and bend over the village in the process. But maybe we get lucky.

[JAG]

Originally Posted by fontisian

Let's try to have some organization with our shots and dukings. Don't shoot or duke someone without giving them time to claim and other people time to defend or attack them. I'd prefer if early lynches aren't duked though if you feel you must, try to aim for people who have had a lot of discussion and votes about them. Remember, this is a group game. We can't all be Batman.

I'd prefer to kill Dukes over Hunters toDay and go for a Hunter toMorrow, minor win condition be damned, because Hunters can be lynched if they fail to shoot scum.

Ok, reading this I agree with what you're saying. I was too focused on part two of what you were saying without this context. I personally don't agree that not voting early is a good idea though. But so be it.

[JAG]

Originally Posted by Shoveler

I guess there are a couple potential ways for the village to win in this game.

1. The village lynches the wolves
2. The village shoots the wolves
3. The village lynches and shoots the wolves.

Now, if a vanilla villager is about to be lynched today, and they duke to a village hunter. The original vanilla villager is going to look suspicious, and most likely be lynched the next day. So in this situation, the village loses valuable time.

If someone other than the lynch leader dukes at the end of the day, that person is going to look suspicious and will be lynched on the next day.

Now, we could also assume that the person that was revealed as having duked could be shot by a hunter on the next day before the lynch, thereby saving the lynch vote for the village. But due to the rules regarding the first hunter using their ability is the only one for the day, we can't rely on having the duke shot dead to reveal their alignment.

Unless someone can offer up a good counter assessment of these abilities, I believe using either of them early in the game has a greater chance of hurting the village simply due to the odds of hitting other villagers.

As to font's point about hitting roled villagers, the odds are about as good as hitting a wolf. So at this point it is most likely that using these abilities end up clearing out the vanillas.

Typing this is probably moot. I would suspect the same as zinto that a vanilla duke is going to use their ability to save themselves and bend over the village in the process. But maybe we get lucky.

The only problem is late in the game we may have issues where the wolves can force a win with a hunter snipe or duke it to a villager. There's a lot more urgency to find wolves ASAP because we need to bring their numbers down before it gets too close for comfort. Assuming 3 wolves, 4-3 or 5-3 might be enough to force a win.

[cheekimonk]

Sorry. Been at an overpriced restaurant that's apparently an "institution" in this city. Good steak. I agree with below...vanilla village duke taking one for the team seems to be the best play D1. D2? Maybe.

[MrBug708]

Checking in guys! Sorry Im late to the game (kinda) as I'm in another wWW game on another board right now.

[Shoveler]

Originally Posted by JAG

The only problem is late in the game we may have issues where the wolves can force a win with a hunter snipe or duke it to a villager. There's a lot more urgency to find wolves ASAP because we need to bring their numbers down before it gets too close for comfort. Assuming 3 wolves, 4-3 or 5-3 might be enough to force a win.

If we let the ratio of hunters/dukes become unbalanced then yes that becomes an issue.

[fontisian]

Originally Posted by JAG

Ok, reading this I agree with what you're saying. I was too focused on part two of what you were saying without this context. I personally don't agree that not voting early is a good idea though. But so be it.

It's unusual for you to miss an important detail like that when you're voting.

[MrBug708]

I have no idea what I'm doing this game. I hate Day 1's as I usually look stupid, trying to figure out everything.

[britrock88]

Originally Posted by MrBug708

Checking in guys! Sorry Im late to the game (kinda) as I'm in another wWW game on another board right now.

"In" as in "GMing and creating a WW community from scratch"?

[britrock88]

This is a fairly long D1 as far as this board's concerned. And I was just one of 5(!) N1 NKs in my other game, so more time for this one! ...after I finish with meetings in the morning.

[britrock88]

^
"This is a fairly long D1" meaning "I'm not surprised this thread isn't multiplying like rabbits yet."

[MrBug708]

Originally Posted by britrock88

"In" as in "GMing and creating a WW community from scratch"?

Mostly

[EagleFan]

Quick thought before I get some sleep.

Not a fan of the Vaimes vote but he has done a few things that make me wonder about him each day one so far.

Why font keeps coming to his defense is puzzling me but again, that has been every day one it seems.

timmae seems a little confused so I will leave my vote where it is for now.


I have little else at the moment. Sorry, have been working on getting the legs together for TAR 2. I think when that game is done I will post my spread sheet that I have been using trying to track the timing of each stage. Not sure if I am insane or not, you can decide.


If anyone wants to pass me an item I can start my trust list... just sayin'

Originally Posted by fontisian

I'd prefer to kill Dukes over Hunters toDay and go for a Hunter toMorrow, minor win condition be damned, because Hunters can be lynched if they fail to shoot scum.

That is kind of like saying we prefer to kill wolves over villagers today. It's not like we have a say in what we are killing today (duke or hunter).

[MrBug708]

Vote - Fontisian

The waiting to vote is curious enough to me and I'm not sure who else to vote. Being around and not voting (as someone mentioned) is also an eyebrow raising action. And I'm still sore from the Brienne of Tarth character killing Lord Karstark off!

Personal note - I should have checked the deadline times better as I'm a teacher on the west coast. Luckily lunch is from 1220-1pm, so I should be able to monitor it fairly well, just reception sucks in both my classroom and the staff lounge.

[Vaimes]

She's defending me because she knows I'm town, and by that I mean she's probably on the scumteam.

[Narcizo]

Originally Posted by Shoveler

Unless someone can offer up a good counter assessment of these abilities, I believe using either of them early in the game has a greater chance of hurting the village simply due to the odds of hitting other villagers.

Ooo-oooh! I can! I can!

Every kill guided by a villager is, on balance, beneficial to the village. Also, you know how votes normally go - there's always going to be two or three at risk in the lynch. That means the village roles will have a lot of warning that they're at risk and should reveal if they're in the mix. Then the person to be lynched (if duke) should duke to the next vote-getter. If we're lucky we get a two-for-one lynch and we find out the allegiance of two of the top vote getters. If we're unlucky then the duke survives. Next day a hunter can take them out so we don't have to pfaff around voting for them, unless the person duked to was a wolf, and then we can reconsider.

This means that we accelerate the effectiveness of the lynch - the village's primary tool for information-gathering.

Things for which people should be lynched or, ideally, day-killed are using a duke power to save someone else. Actually according to my scheme you should be day-killed for using the duke power at all, unless you hit a wolf, in which case things can be assessed based on that.

There is a risk that this kills dukes, but the clever thing about the rules is that for every duke that's killed the hunters' power becomes less potent (as there's more chance of a hunter hitting another hunter with a day-kill), while the duke's power becomes more useful.

So my guideline is - a duke to be lynched should duke to the next vote-getter. If he hits a villager then he should be day-killed the next day if he survives.

[fontisian]

Is there any merit to having everyone claim Hunter or Duke? It prevents scum from accidentally shooting into the people that hurt them, but it also allows us to better organize town shots/dukes (and there are more of those).

[Narcizo]

Originally Posted by fontisian

Is there any merit to having everyone claim Hunter or Duke? It prevents scum from accidentally shooting into the people that hurt them, but it also allows us to better organize town shots/dukes (and there are more of those).

I'm kind of thinking that there isn't. At the moment I think the wolves will be steering away from day-kills (at the very least). If they know who they can hit then they will be much more likely to use a kill. I imagine a wolf duke is going to duke and take his chances as he has nothing to lose. If he knows who not to duke to then he's going to do that and force the village to use up one of its day-kills.

There's also the risk that knowledge of allegiance is going to influence voting because of the minor victory conditions.

[Narcizo]

Happy with my Zinto vote at the moment. There's always something to discuss in a game like this - keeping quiet just seems defensive.

[Narcizo]

Originally Posted by cheekimonk

Sorry. Been at an overpriced restaurant that's apparently an "institution" in this city. Good steak. I agree with below...vanilla village duke taking one for the team seems to be the best play D1. D2? Maybe.

I've finally realised why you say "below" all the time when what you actually mean "above". And it's not that you're from New Zealand. So I shall now turn my Holmsian detective powers to the task of finding the wolves.

[cheekimonk]

Originally Posted by Narcizo

I've finally realised why you say "below" all the time when what you actually mean "above". And it's not that you're from New Zealand. So I shall now turn my Holmsian detective powers to the task of finding the wolves.

Ahh...sorry. I use Tapatalk on my iPhone quite often and, for threads with a ton of replies, it's much more convenient to put latest on top vs. bottom. My apologies, folks. Carry on...

[Narcizo]

Nothing to apologise for. I just thought I was going mad(der) or something.

[JAG]

Originally Posted by fontisian

It's unusual for you to miss an important detail like that when you're voting.

I guess it's a red letter day then. I haven't voted seriously to this point anyway, mostly wanting to get some discussion going and ask questions of those I have. I'm a little weirded out by people following my votes though.

Unvote

[JAG]

Originally Posted by Narcizo

Ooo-oooh! I can! I can!

Every kill guided by a villager is, on balance, beneficial to the village. Also, you know how votes normally go - there's always going to be two or three at risk in the lynch. That means the village roles will have a lot of warning that they're at risk and should reveal if they're in the mix. Then the person to be lynched (if duke) should duke to the next vote-getter. If we're lucky we get a two-for-one lynch and we find out the allegiance of two of the top vote getters. If we're unlucky then the duke survives. Next day a hunter can take them out so we don't have to pfaff around voting for them, unless the person duked to was a wolf, and then we can reconsider.

This means that we accelerate the effectiveness of the lynch - the village's primary tool for information-gathering.

Things for which people should be lynched or, ideally, day-killed are using a duke power to save someone else. Actually according to my scheme you should be day-killed for using the duke power at all, unless you hit a wolf, in which case things can be assessed based on that.

There is a risk that this kills dukes, but the clever thing about the rules is that for every duke that's killed the hunters' power becomes less potent (as there's more chance of a hunter hitting another hunter with a day-kill), while the duke's power becomes more useful.

So my guideline is - a duke to be lynched should duke to the next vote-getter. If he hits a villager then he should be day-killed the next day if he survives.

It's a higher risk strategy than playing it safe because it accelerates our timeline required to win though. We'll get more information per lynch, but have fewer total showdowns. I would rather agree to saying we should have the duke lynch to the next highest vote getter than pick a random target though, so that way even if we screw up, we get some decent info. Let's make sure we vote wolves that being the case.

[cheekimonk]

Originally Posted by Narcizo

Nothing to apologise for. I just thought I was going mad(der) or something.

Trust me, it's harder for me translating the other way. Especially for posts that use "^" to reference the previous post.

[cheekimonk]

Originally Posted by JAG

Surprised no vote from her yet and not sure about her strategy above. Seems like a good way to off a seer or BG, or inadvertently killing a seer scan, or giving a duke wolf cover for their 'random' duking.

I can buy this...especially from a vet.

unvote Raven
vote fontisian

[JAG]

Originally Posted by britrock88

^
"This is a fairly long D1" meaning "I'm not surprised this thread isn't multiplying like rabbits yet."

Agree with this, surprised there's been so little chatter since there seems to be a lot more to talk about rule/strategy wise than our last game.

[JAG]

Originally Posted by cheekimonk

I can buy this...especially from a vet.

unvote Raven
vote fontisian

Did you read the part afterwards where I called myself an idiot and admitted I misrepresented her strategy?

[cheekimonk]

Originally Posted by JAG

Did you read the part afterwards where I called myself an idiot and admitted I misrepresented her strategy?

I read, but apparently misunderstood. Playing catch up in the early morning. For a D1 vote it feels good, though. Some others do but I'll leave it there for now.

[Grover]

Morning guys! Playing catch up from 5PM yesterday til now.

[Zinto]

I know Narcizo is all for the extra kill for the village. I don't know how ofter I agree with that but it will be interesting to see how it plays out.

I don't think that anyone who dukes out of being lynched should immediately get suspicion either. There is a better chance it is just a villager duke than a wolf duke.

[Zinto]

Also villagers in second or third with an hour or so to go should be revealing. There are a bunch of dukes in this game. You are likely to get killed if you do not and toss your role away.

[JAG]

Originally Posted by cheekimonk

I read, but apparently misunderstood. Playing catch up in the early morning. For a D1 vote it feels good, though. Some others do but I'll leave it there for now.

That makes no sense to me. It feels good even though you misunderstood?

Vote cheek

I have three meetings before deadline. I'll be on around lunch and then possibly off til post-deadline unless a meeting gets out early.

[cheekimonk]

Originally Posted by Zinto

There is a better chance it is just a villager duke than a wolf duke.

Why is that? Just numbers?

[Zinto]

What is everyone's thoughts on taking hunter shots? We have talked a lot about the should you duke aspect but I haven't seen a ton of hunter talk. Are we going to use it to gain more clarity in voting history? Are we going to ask everyone to refrain from using it for a few days?

[Zinto]

Originally Posted by cheekimonk

Why is that? Just numbers?

Yep