Werewolf small game IV: Revenge of the nerds. GAME OVER NERDS WIN

[Barkeep49]

Sorry Jonathan.

[Barkeep49]

I have no problem with DC not voting for Jonathan. I was just less pleased when we had 3 and 3 and it looked like we might not get a majority on either candidate and she had her vote on a third person.

[Lorena]

Originally Posted by LoneStarGirl

Good job DC but i still think some people are giong to go after you because you didn't vote for Jonathan

I misunderstood the rules apparently. That's fine, but I wasn't the only one that didn't vote for Jonathan.

[Poli]

Bummer.

[path12]

Originally Posted by LoneStarGirl

Good job DC but i still think some people are giong to go after you because you didn't vote for Jonathan

People are going to go after her because she didn't vote to lynch a good guy?

[path12]

Dola, sorry for being quiet today, I wasn't around the computer. I will be tomorrow.

[Lorena]

Originally Posted by Lathum

current vote count

Jonathan 6 ( Barkeep, AlanT, spleen, lonestargirl, ardent, goldeneagle)
Ardent 1 (Path)
GoldenEagle 1 ( Dodgerchick)
Spleen 2 ( Blade, jonathan)


not voted oliegirl

6 votes needed for lynch

Jeez, I'm such an idiot sometimes I totally missed that.

[Lathum]

You awake in the morning afraid of what horrors the alpha beta's have bestowed on you. Eventually everyone shows up in the common room. Maybe you have over reacted?

Day 2 has begun votes due by 9 PM EST. We will discuss the weekend schedule today.

[Blade6119]

Well someone likes me, or rather 2 people !!

I was attacked last night, and protected by booger. After booger saved me, he stayed around and we smoked up. Ill let him choose if he wants to reveal who he saw or not, but either way im thankful. We just caught a major break last night, and i did as well i suppose since im still alive.

[path12]

So you didn't see who attacked you? Just that Booger saved you?

[Blade6119]

Originally Posted by path12

So you didn't see who attacked you? Just that Booger saved you?

The scuffle occured outside my room...i was unaware anyone was there until booger came in. Booger told me he fought the AB, told me he knew who it was, and told me it was time to celebrate by getting high as a kite. He didnt tell me who it was, but my PM seemed clear that he knew. Whether he chooses to reveal is his business, as i have no idea if the bad guys know who he is. Frankly i hope he doesnt, but gives me a hint today as to who it was in case he is killed.

[path12]

Tough call. I almost lean toward the view that in a game like this we've got two bad guys at most and if someone can identify 50% of the evil, that might be worth the reveal. I guess we'll see. If he/she isn't 100% sure who made the attack they should keep quiet though.

[Alan T]

I assume if the bodyguard knows who attacked, then the attacker knows who the bodyguard is. Don't see how it would be where only one side identified the other.

So if the bodyguard knows who attacked, there is no benefit to hiding the information or not telling it. And in fact revealing the information then tells us what side 30% of the players in the game is on. Thats not a small chunk of information.

[Barkeep49]

I agree that the BG should come forward though I do not think that this clears Blade. However, we's now nowhere near the top of my suspects list.

[Alan T]

Well in games where conversions are possible, I don't know how anyone is ever 100% cleared, but I would have to guess out of 10 people left, 9 + yourself, you would have to have Blade as #3 on the list behind yourself and the bodyguard.

I can't imagine the wolves targeting their own member for a night kill with the 10% chance that they might get lucky and he is guarded to buy him trust. Thats a bit of a reach even for me.

A few questions in my head.. Why did the bodyguard not protect himself, was it very clear to the bodyguard that they were after Blade, or possible they were after the bodyguard. (ie: does the bodyguard have a description in this game that they can't be night killed, or would the only way he fights off an attack is to specifically guard the person being attacked).

Im pretty sure if the bodyguard came out and said I was guarding blade, he was attacked and this person was the attacker, it would damn 1 and pretty much clear 2 others.

[Alan T]

Another reason why the bodyguard should likely reveal as long as they have information on who the attacker was and can verify Blade was the target of the attack:

Without verification, you either have to trust Blade's story or not based on his word. (Not always safe in a WW game, but chances of him faking that reveal is fairly unlikely).

If we have 9 other people to choose today for votes, and assume there are 2 bad guys, that is a 22% chance of correctly hitting on a wolf today. If we -assume- Blade is telling the truth, that is still a 25% chance of hitting a wolf today.

Now if a bodyguard can identify a wolf, and can give credence to Blade's story, that not only gives us a wolf today, but it makes tommorrow vote a 20% chance of getting the last wolf, buys our seer more time and brings us close to finishing the game.

[spleen1015]

Hopefully, the BG has something good to tell us today.

Some suspicion needs to be placed on Dodgerchick. She didn't switch her vote when she could help us get a lynch and I don't believe that she has been misreading and misposting like she claims.

[LoneStarGirl]

Well we got lucky as hell last night. I am all for the BG revealing who did the killing because if Alant is right, we only have 2 wolves and this would make the game a lot easier. But that also means Booger is revealed and he will probably be killed tonight, which might hurt us in the long run

[Blade6119]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

What'll it take to tempt? I'd like to see you go to the effort if only to see how you'll have to squirm when I come up as squeaky clean as Mother Theresea.

You know, yesterday i was joking about going after you...today im not. For the time being, obviously open to change if the bg reveals, im going to place my vote on you

VOTE BARKEEP

Some of your comments yesterday made me uneasy(like saying lynch one of these two), but it was the new perspective after the night that one post stood out to me. 5 people didnt vote for Jon at the time of the comment, and you called out 3 of them(all but jon, who was dying, and myself). Now, normally id assume you forgot and let it go then and there. But then i am the choice for night attack, which sheds new light on your post yesterday.

In the games ive played with you, ive not known you to provoke me often when good. This mornings comments you put forward also dont make me sit easy in regards to you. I trust 2 people besides myself, 1 about 90% and one about 85%. Your not either one...if you have any questions, ill be back in like 3-4 hours

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by LoneStarGirl

Well we got lucky as hell last night. I am all for the BG revealing who did the killing because if Alant is right, we only have 2 wolves and this would make the game a lot easier. But that also means Booger is revealed and he will probably be killed tonight, which might hurt us in the long run

Like I said before, if the Bodyguard knows who the attacker is, what are the chances that the attacker doesn't know who the bodyguard is?

Usually these things work in pairs. I don't remember many times where the information is onesided. So the bodyguard revealing the name of the attacker only tells the rest of us information that the bad guys already have.

[Barkeep49]

The people I called out? These were people in the thread at the time. I actually did call out AE and path at one point but I believed they weren't around hence my focus on those who were around. Blade you're always itching to get rid of me. I love it. I love having respect for my game. However, if you're on the side of good than you should agree my aggressive efforts at a lynch are for the right underlying reason. You notice that despite my starting the voting, I never pushed Jonathan because I knew it was a random vote. I just wanted to make sure we had a lynch. In a game that requires majority I didn't want to see us fall short. If you don't like that, so be it, but thems the facts.

Oh one more fact: I'm still a good guy.

[Barkeep49]

Oh and granted you already know who the BG is, but don't you think it's a little premature to be voting until we hear fully what he knows?

[Barkeep49]

He or she that is.

[Barkeep49]

Blade I slightly misread your post, though my underlying point remains the same, but let me clarify. I called out the people who weren't voting for Spleen or Jonathan. Now as time went on it became clear it was going to be Jonathan, but I was never opposed to a two horse race. So you and Jonathan were spared because you were on spleen, who when I started agitating around 5:30 central was one of the two leading contenders.

Now besides the fact that your internal logic is crap (I don't call you out which makes be bad because when I'm good I don't confront you) that is some REALLY weak sauce from you in terms of bringing it on.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

that is some REALLY weak sauce from you in terms of bringing it on.

Is that you Kirsten Dunst??

[Lathum]

any suggestions on play for the weekend?

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by Lathum

any suggestions on play for the weekend?

I won't be around for much discussion, but I will be able to pop in long enough to read any light conversations that occured and place a vote each day.

I don't have any problems going full speed ahead with the weekend.

[Barkeep49]

Well in a small game if Ardent is still around for the weekend I guess we should slow it a little, otherwise I too am in favor of full speed ahead.

[spleen1015]

I won't be available after 7pm tomorrow. Other than that, I am free for the weekend.

Whatever we decide, I'll be able to vote.

[oliegirl]

Originally Posted by Alan T

Like I said before, if the Bodyguard knows who the attacker is, what are the chances that the attacker doesn't know who the bodyguard is?

Usually these things work in pairs. I don't remember many times where the information is onesided. So the bodyguard revealing the name of the attacker only tells the rest of us information that the bad guys already have.

Wouldn't it be a good thing to have the same info as the bad guys? I don't see how knowing 1 of the 2 bad guys would turn out to be a negative thing for us...

[LoneStarGirl]

I am all for playing this weekend, my mom will be in town but I will still make time to pop in and discuss and vote

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by oliegirl

Wouldn't it be a good thing to have the same info as the bad guys? I don't see how knowing 1 of the 2 bad guys would turn out to be a negative thing for us...

Thats the point I am trying to make

[path12]

I've got no problem with the weekend.

[Lorena]

Originally Posted by spleen1015

Some suspicion needs to be placed on Dodgerchick. She didn't switch her vote when she could help us get a lynch and I don't believe that she has been misreading and misposting like she claims.

It's the truth, much like your mistake with Hob, Nob or whatever the hell it was in the Middle Earth game. I haven't been looking as closely at posts cuz I've been pretty busy IRL. You see my name in the thread, but how do you know if I'm at the keyboard?

Anyone that has a 2 year old can understand the demands of raising them (temper tantrums, etc) and when the kid wants something, he wants it NOW.

You can choose to believe me or not, it doesn't matter. I mean this is WW and people talk out of their asses more often than not.

[Lorena]

Originally Posted by Lathum

any suggestions on play for the weekend?

I'm cool with whatever Lathum

[Alan T]

So we've had alot of the day pass so far and no sign of the bodyguard announcing anything. So I assume we take this as a sign of the bodyguard not knowing who attacked last night, thus no great reason to reveal anything about themselves or Blade. I still feel Blade coming out with a BS story that could easily be refuted is something a wolf wouldn't do as it still gives the 1 for 1 swap that we don't mind.

I have to go to a meeting that will likely take up most of my afternoon in 1 hour. I will likely be gone tonight to movies or something. So if nothing presents itself in the next hour, I'll have to take another semi-random guess.

For my choice for today, I likely won't vote Blade for reasons I already stated, and for now, am leaning to voting for Barkeep to help put my vote somewhere that already has a vote before I go. I don't really get a horrible feel about Barkeep but if nothing else I assume he is not the bodyguard as Blade supposedly knows who the bodyguard is.

That gives me a 25% chance that Barkeep is bad, 12.5% chance he is the seer, 12.5% chance he is the duke and a 50% chance he is a normal villager.

Not the best odds in the world, but the best I have to work with due to my lack of information.

[Alan T]

Eh my math there is a bit skewed because I didn't figure Blade in it and assume Blade is good, but dont know if Blade is vanilla villager or seer or duke.

Either way figuring Blade in, its a 71% chance that Barkeep is good, 29% chance he is bad based on what I -do- know.

For everyone else in the game right now its a 75% - 25% chance, so I'll likely go with the odds and vote Barkeep if nothing else presents itself before I have to go.

[LoneStarGirl]

It is so funny to see people throw out math. I am a math teacher and most of the time I dont even get the percentages

[LoneStarGirl]

I am kind of leaning towards path or dodgerchick for not voting for Jonathan or changing their vote. But we dont know if either was on after they voted TO change their vote.

[path12]

I'm waiting to hear from everyone today before voting, there's still a couple of people who haven't checked in yet since the night results.

I think the whole rationale from spleen and LSG regarding mine and DC's votes is totally silly -- if you want to punish me for NOT voting for a good guy go ahead, but be ready to find yourself on the block right after you find out I'm simply a nerd.

[spleen1015]

Originally Posted by Dodgerchick

It's the truth, much like your mistake with Hob, Nob or whatever the hell it was in the Middle Earth game.

You got me there. Now you have me doubting my inital feeling. Why to go!

[spleen1015]

Originally Posted by path12

I'm waiting to hear from everyone today before voting, there's still a couple of people who haven't checked in yet since the night results.

I think the whole rationale from spleen and LSG regarding mine and DC's votes is totally silly -- if you want to punish me for NOT voting for a good guy go ahead, but be ready to find yourself on the block right after you find out I'm simply a nerd.

I haven't mentioned you at all this game, have I?

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by LoneStarGirl

It is so funny to see people throw out math. I am a math teacher and most of the time I dont even get the percentages

Its pretty easy actually. I just did it in notepad.

We have 10 people left, we know there are 1 seer, 1 bodyguard, 1 duke and 5 vanilla good guys left along with 2 wolves based on the game rules listed at the start.

We assume:
Blade knows who the bodyguard is.
Blade was attacked last night and protected.

Thus if Blade is good, he takes up one of our 8 good guy spots left. If Blade voted for Barkeep, we assume Barkeep is not the bodyguard. I know I am a vanilla good guy, that takes up one of the 8 good guy spots left.

That leaves 6 good guy spots of which 1 of them Barkeep likely isn't (the bodyguard).

So after that math, it means Barkeep could possibly be 1 of the 2 wolf spots, or 1 of 5 remaining good guy spots. So if Barkeep has a 5/7ths chance of being good in my mind, thats 71%, or a 29% chance of being bad.

For any other player in the game other than myself or Blade, I get 75-25%. So I get a 4% better odds of barkeep being bad based on Blade's activity than anyone else I could vote for.

[Poli]

I'm fine with whichever, but I can't guarantee I'll add much over the weekend.

About to hit the road.

VOTE DODGERCHICK

Just to get a vote in.

[Lorena]

Originally Posted by LoneStarGirl

It is so funny to see people throw out math. I am a math teacher and most of the time I dont even get the percentages

[Lorena]

Originally Posted by spleen1015

You got me there. Now you have me doubting my inital feeling. Why to go!

Well I don't have any other suspects other than Barkeep for "suspecting" me. I can see his rush to get a villager killed if he were a bad guy, but on the other hand, there's that small possibility that we DO get a bad guy the first day.

First day lynches are such a crapshoot. More likely than not we get a villager but there's that chance, however small it is, that we could get a wolf.

I'll have to think about it some more. I'm out for a while as I have a lot of reading to do. I had to jump through hoops to get Ant to play *wink* *wink* *nudge* *nudge*

[path12]

Originally Posted by spleen1015

I haven't mentioned you at all this game, have I?

Sorry for the confusion, I was referring to your suspicions of DC, not me. LSG was the one who mentioned me but both of your reasons seemed the same so I lumped you together.

[path12]

Dola, I have no feeling one way or the other regarding DC, but I'm certainly not going to vote her based on her day 1 vote.

[Blade6119]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

Now besides the fact that your internal logic is crap (I don't call you out which makes be bad because when I'm good I don't confront you) that is some REALLY weak sauce from you in terms of bringing it on.

If i wanted to bury you last night gave me all the ammo i needed. I easily could have ID'd you as the bad guy who attacked me and the group would have lynched you in a heartbeat. Now, since i dont know if it was you i wont say that. But if you want sauce, i can bring it.

[LoneStarGirl]

The nastiness between Blade and Barkeep really bother me. Last game I was bad with Blade and Lathum and intentionally they got into numerous fights on the thread to make everybody believe they were not wolves together. And now the same thing seems to happen. I dont think Blade is dumb enough to pull that move again, but he just might