WW CXLIV: Monty Python and the Holy Werewolf: GAME OVER (Result in Post 414)

[The Jackal]

Sorry I wasn't around last night, I went straight from one job to the other and my phone was out of battery.

NTN's timing and tone struck me the most in my first read of the posts so far.

[Autumn]

Nothing struck me really yesterday other than CF being CF. After some coffee I'll look back over things and the votes and see.

[Coffee Warlord]

You called?

[Autumn]

Day One

jackal votes mckerney
1
zinto votes jackal
1-1
CW votes CF
1-1-1
CF votes chief
1-1-1-1
autumn votes bhlloy
1-1-1-1-1
bhlloy votes cf
2-1-1-1-1
ntn votes mckerney
2-2-1-1-1
mckerney votes ntn
2-2-1-1-1-1
darth votes chief rum
2-2-2-1-1-1
chief votes CF
3-2-2-1-1-1
danny votes jackal
3-2-2-2-1-1
henry votes mckerney
3-3-2-2-1-1
autumn unvotes bhlloy
3-3-2-2-1
autumn votes chief
3-3-3-2-1
zinto unvotes jackal
3-3-3-1-1
zinto votes mckerney
4-3-3-1-1
danny unvotes jackal
4-3-3-1
danny votes chief
4-4-3-1
mauboy votes mckerney
5-4-3-1
coffee unvotes cf
5-4-2-1
coffee votes mckerney
6-4-2-1

[Coffee Warlord]

Originally Posted by bhlloy

Random thoughts - feel OK about CW. Not sure a wolf moves off a villager onto another villager that late to draw attention to himself. Not a huge feel OK, but something none the less. Would feel better if there wasn't a random lynch chance in the tiebreaker rules, as that would mean a wolf has a motivation to avoid a tie but still. Doesn't smell like a wolf move.

For what it's worth, the random lynch on the tie is even more harmful to the village. It's an EXTRA lynch, not a replacement. Statistically, it very much favors the wolves to force a tie, especially if it's villager/villager and early in game (suspicion aside). You off one villager for sure, and get a random chance to off another.

[Coffee Warlord]

4 Chief Rum: CrimsonFox (60), Darth Vilus (82) Autumn (99), Danny (111)
2/3 CrimsonFox: CW (Until I moved late), bhlloy (70), Chief Rum (88)

I'm focusing on these two blocks today. Keep in mind, it was 4/4/3 for the majority of the evening, till I moved my vote - so Chief, CF, and Mckerney were all effectively on the block. We know CF is good now, so he'da been an easy place to park one wolf. I'm sure mckerney has one parked on him as well, but that's harder to look through.

This makes me lean early towards bhlloy or Chief being bad.

[Autumn]

I think Chief has to be looked at, just to clear up voting. There's a real possibility we don't have a seer in this game, based on the way JAG introduced the roles, so I don't want to assume that people who are involved in the voting will eventually be scanned.

I don't think anyone looks good yet. I don't see any reason a wolf CW doesn't move off CF to Mckerney, particularly since he knows CF will be offed and will come up good.

My son is talking in my ear, so I can't really go back through and read yet. But at the moment I'm leaning Chief just to find out more about the vote.

[Danny]

vote jackal

[Coffee Warlord]

Danny with the drive by randomness!

[Autumn]

I'll put my vote where my mouth is for the moment, until I get a chance to go back and read.

vote chief rum

[henry296]

I tend to agree with Autumn/CW that we need to learn Chief Rum's allegience sooner rather than later.

However, Danny's vote for Jackal is interesting because I was thinking about the Jackal voters or Jackal himself. At one point Jackal was in the mix with two votes and then Zinto and Danny unvoted him. When Danny unvotes Jackal he creates the tie with CR and mckerney.

[bhlloy]

So was up until 2 and back at it at 5:45am with work so I'm not going to be around much this morning either. Hopefully get some time late afternoon to take this all in.

And yeah, I know I'd never buy this excuse fr someone else but it is what it is

[bhlloy]

Originally Posted by Coffee Warlord

For what it's worth, the random lynch on the tie is even more harmful to the village. It's an EXTRA lynch, not a replacement. Statistically, it very much favors the wolves to force a tie, especially if it's villager/villager and early in game (suspicion aside). You off one villager for sure, and get a random chance to off another.

Just a quick "I disagree" here. Yes, the odds favor a villager lynch but as a wolf I'm not taking that chance because there are much fewer of me. Playing wolf is all about controlling the game. Just my 2 cents

Why are you arguin against me trying to say I trust you anyway? Lol

[Coffee Warlord]

Originally Posted by bhlloy

Just a quick "I disagree" here. Yes, the odds favor a villager lynch but as a wolf I'm not taking that chance because there are much fewer of me. Playing wolf is all about controlling the game. Just my 2 cents

Why are you arguin against me trying to say I trust you anyway? Lol

Not really arguing against you, just stimulating conversation. Different perspectives and all. Amazingly, I have actually been known to be wrong during WW games.

[Coffee Warlord]

Originally Posted by Autumn

There's a real possibility we don't have a seer in this game, based on the way JAG introduced the roles, so I don't want to assume that people who are involved in the voting will eventually be scanned.

Given that all the wolves have a special power of some sort, I'm of the opinion there is more than likely a seer, just from a balance standpoint.

[JAG]

Day 2 voting as of post 164:

1 Chief Rum: Autumn (160)
1 ntndeacon: The Jackal (150)
1 The Jackal: Danny (158)

[Chief Rum]

Day One was a complete waste. I'm just a regular ole smelly villager, folks.

That means we managed to put up three complete villagers and no wolves up for the vote yesterday. Yay us.

All you will learn from lynching me is that you have learned nothing.

But as I said yesterday, other than the missed opportunity of lynching an actual wolf, you don't lose anything by lynching me, except for my amazing ability to clear any room I enter.

[ntndeacon]

Originally Posted by Coffee Warlord

Given that all the wolves have a special power of some sort, I'm of the opinion there is more than likely a seer, just from a balance standpoint.

Except one of the powers is a net loss for the wolves. As the Black knights power is to get killed if they try to kill Arthur.

However, I can't imagine there isn't a seer.

[Coffee Warlord]

That's just what the Black Knight WANTS you to think. HE ALWAYS TRIUMPHS!

[ntndeacon]

He will bite your knees off

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by JAG

Roles: Note that all roles may not be present, the only guaranteed role is King Arthur. And I mean that. Also, wolves will know one role that is not in the game.

This statement is what makes me think there might not be a seer ... even when all roles are not in game everyone always assumes there's a seer, so JAG's emphasis makes me think there's a chance there may not be - the other roles wouldn't really be a surprise to not be in the game (unless there's no wolves!)

Also, I didn't notice the last part on my first reading, but there's a chance of a fake reveal, it seems, we should keep in mind.

[Coffee Warlord]

So, while we're at various tangents here, back to topic...

Does anyone have any better ideas for a lynch today?

[Autumn]

No, not really. I don't think Day 1 voting is going to tell us a whole lot in isolation, and so I'm voting for Chief simply because that's a vote that will add the most info going forward. I haven't gotten any great intuitions by reading posts, so I don't know what else to do.

[Coffee Warlord]

Okay, how about...

WTF Danny?

editing to add: I seem to recall he often does that, and I often ask this very same question every time he does.

[Darth Vilus]

Hate to vote and run but I gotta head to work again. I'd be really happy with a Danny/Chief Rum roll off to be honest, that's me 2 cents

[Darth Vilus]

Vote Chief Rum

I'd like to know where he stands and Danny's votes are always a little different when he's a wolf. I think he voted Jackal early to help swing attention in a direction that the wolves would prefer.

[Darth Vilus]

Oh and I'm voting Rum over Danny because we already have 3 candidates and one of them is Rum. Just FYI my peeps

[Darth Vilus]

Alrighty, I'm heading out. Good luck fellas

[Coffee Warlord]

I'd like to get at least one more person front and center here, and not a pile onto CR. Gonna be putting my vote in before I leave for home (< 1 hour).

[Danny]

Originally Posted by Coffee Warlord

Okay, how about...

WTF Danny?

editing to add: I seem to recall he often does that, and I often ask this very same question every time he does.

Pretty easy explanation here. Jackal had a rwally early vote o him but garneres no support at all, i think there is a gpod chance a wolf jimpsd on him if he was a billager there. And again today no wolf jumping on jackal.

[Danny]

And id almost guarentee we have a seer.

[Danny]

I think chief is a villager and will not e voting him today. And agai i feel he was likely scanned or should be anyway. And i dont buy the no seer argument

[Danny]

Oh and this is a small game if a wolf catches a wplf he shiuld reveal

[Autumn]

Wow, Danny. Are you posting from a telegraph machine?

[Coffee Warlord]

Vote Danny

I have no particular desire to get a pile on CR going, the other two candidates only have one vote apiece, and there's a ton of people left to vote.

And Danny's just acting weird.

[Chief Rum]

Just had a thought...

We lynched one of three candidates. The wolves killed one of the other two candidates, leaving just one from the Day One voting, me.

I am curious, why would the hypothetical wolf me put the focus so squarely on me by killing the other living candidate up for consideration on Day One?

CF would have been a logical other candidate to go after in addition to me today.

Even if you think I am being particularly devious as a wolf and am playing a double blind right now (doing the "obvious" wolf move, so I can't possibly be a wolf, etc. etc.), you know that won't hold up more than a day or so before people lynch me to rule me out once and for all. Being a candidate on Day One is almost always a short term death sentence in WW, even if you survive that day.

So why would I as a wolf eliminate my only likely voting competition?

[The Jackal]

I'm pretty sure there is a seer

[The Jackal]

Bit slow today eh? I still have a weird feeling about NTN's vote post, but we'll see what happens

[Zinto]

Originally Posted by Autumn

Wow, Danny. Are you posting from a telegraph machine?

As I catch up this made me laugh!

[Zinto]

I agree there is a seer. I was a wolf in Jags last game and he had a similar rule set up and there was a seer in that game. Honestly giving the wolves a seer role to fake reveal seems at least to me unbalanced.

[Zinto]

If I am a wolf Autumn I kill Crimson. When I looked back at Crimsons posts he doesn't really specifically mention anyone else and in the past Crimson would start going after Autumn a lot as the game goes on.

[Zinto]

The only problem I have with voting Autumn at this point in my mind I am not sure a wolf would argue against a seer in the game. It is odd and makes him a target of "what the heck is he talking about" votes.

[Zinto]

I am just going to go with it so...

Vote Autumn

[Danny]

Originally Posted by Autumn

Wow, Danny. Are you posting from a telegraph machine?

lol, from my iphone with auto correct off.

[Danny]

Originally Posted by Coffee Warlord

Vote Danny
And Danny's just acting weird.

Some in depth analysis there. I actually have a solid case for voting Jackal (well, as solid as we can have at this point) and laid it out (though in iphone rush posting format) for you.

[Danny]

Originally Posted by Zinto

I agree there is a seer. I was a wolf in Jags last game and he had a similar rule set up and there was a seer in that game. Honestly giving the wolves a seer role to fake reveal seems at least to me unbalanced.

Yes, it would be heavily imbalanced in a game this small. I am going with the thought that there is 99% for sure a seer.

[Danny]

Early read is Zinto is definitely a villager. He plays tighter as a wolf and I don't think he throws out an Autumn vote there as a wolf. Likely instead he jumps on a candidate already with a vote.

[CrimsonFox]

Ni!

[Danny]

Originally Posted by Danny

lol, from my iphone with auto correct off.

Oh and Darth can attest how awful my typing is from the iphone with auto correct off. But I was sick and tired of having to type the same freaking word 10 times and each time have it changed because surely when I type SUPERBOWL I must be wanting to type Super Owl

[mauchow]

Originally Posted by Zinto

The only problem I have with voting Autumn at this point in my mind I am not sure a wolf would argue against a seer in the game. It is odd and makes him a target of "what the heck is he talking about" votes.

I see this as flipped around for me. To me it seems weird that he's talking about if there is/is not seer in the game. It just seems like more talk to deter from what we're trying to accomplish and that's to lynch wolves. That's the way I read it anyway. When I started to read his comments I was getting pings.

EDIT: I misread the rest of what you wrote - I left my original paragraph up, but I want to clarify in this edit, because I can. For some reason I thought Zinto was saying a reason why he wouldn't be a wolf - but then I didn't see that he voted for Autumn soon after. I need to work on my reading comprehension.