Predicting the Summer Olympics (sort of)

[Lathum]

dola- now she just showed our kids....

[Young Drachma]

Originally Posted by MIJB#19

is there a male pro volleyball leagues in the USA? I tried searching, but only found a couple of upstart women's leagues.

No, there is no such thing. The one organized men's league didn't pay salaries. But the women's game remains in a boom -- though not like pickleball lol.

The women have PVF and athletes unlimited had one, not sure if it's still active. But no, there's no male pro league that's not at least semi-pro. There is, however, a big funding campaign happening to add more boys volleyball programs across the country thanks to a multimillion dollar donation that's having more states adding boys HS programs.

wsj.com

[CrimsonFox]

and this is why there are no male olympians on the balance beam

- YouTube

[CrimsonFox]

Originally Posted by Lathum

My wife just showed my mother the french pole vaulter video and now I am shook...

he no doubt got laid 100 times that night

[SecretAgentMan]

​All of the artistic gymnastics events are done, so I would now like to analyze the results there. Here is what I was looking for before the events started:
​

And here is what actually happened:​


Some thoughts about what happened:
-My ratings for gymnastics need some work. USA, China, and Japan were definitely the three best countries at these games as expected, but some of the countries that my ratings claim are good are not really close to medals. Germany is a particularly egregious example, but France, Canada, and Spain are also notable.

-I think that recent results (the best scores from this year) are actually a better measure for gymnastics than the historical precedent. This is especially true for breakthrough athletes. For example, Carlos Yulo of the Philippines won two golds. That wasn't hard to predict by looking at the top scores from this season. Ditto the gold medal for Algeria's Kaylia Nemour. There were a couple of surprises (Ireland and Colombia), but generally the scores for this year were right on the money.

-Except for Brazil. Let's talk about Brazil. I wasn't sure what to make of them beforehand, because the data didn't show anything of note. Clearly, this is an outlier, and here's why: Rebecca Andrade must not have competed much this year. She won 3 of Brazil's four medals individually, and was clearly a big reason why they won their first ever team medal. (China and France also had terrible team events, which certainly helped). I think that's why it looked like they weren't going to do well, but if you watched her, you saw that she was excellent throughout the competition.

What did I learn about my game?
-I think I have to look at ways to incorporate more recent results into my game. It clearly matters in Gymnastics.

-I also have to figure out why so many mediocre countries were rated so highly. I suspect it's an over-reliance on qualification numbers. Something clearly needs to be adjusted there, that's for sure.

-Finally, and this is important: I need to figure out how to model the differences between all-around gymnasts and specialists. The countries that are trying to win gold medals in the team and individual all-around events get to bring 5 gymnasts to the games, but they generally bring 3-4 all-around athletes and maybe only 1 or 2 specialists (think Stephen Nedoroscik on the US team). However, a country that only sends 1 or 2 gymnasts is often sending specialists who can afford to focus on just a couple of events. On the men's side, these specialists often performed quite well on the individual finals. (This is possibly because there are 6 men's events, so "all-around" gymnasts have to spread themselves out even further) On the women's side, the all-around athletes were often so good that they also won individual event medals, too. (Only 4 events for them to do) I have to figure out if maybe these things need to be de-coupled in some way so as to more effectively model the state of modern gymnastics.

[CrimsonFox]

did you guys see kenya boxing out etheopia in that race? Such bullies

[AlexB]

The 1500 was an amazing race. Fair play to the US athlete, he played that perfectly.

[Ghost Econ]

If you watch back the women's 3000 steeple chase, about 3:30 into the race there is a very clear demarcation between the 7 in the lead group and 7 in the next. It was quite the ... contrast.

[larrymcg421]

Originally Posted by AlexB

The 1500 was an amazing race. Fair play to the US athlete, he played that perfectly.

My favorite event and it's amazing how good the US is at it now.

The USA went 9 Olympics without winning a medal (not counting 1980) and now they've won 4 in the last 3 Olympics, with 2 golds. 1st, 3rd, and 5th is just insanely impressive.

[SecretAgentMan]

Track and Field has been a blast so far this week. Lots of really close races, and I am shocked at how well the US distance runners have been doing.

[CrimsonFox]

[GrantDawg]

That's adorable.

Sent from my SM-S916U using Tapatalk

[larrymcg421]

That steeplechase race was super exciting. It was hilarious to see how stunned the Ethiopian runners were when the American ran by them.

[JPhillips]

Did I hear right? The US has the four fastest times in the 110 hurdles but only three can qualify?

[CrimsonFox]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

That's adorable.

Sent from my SM-S916U using Tapatalk

That was the balance beam podium after all the others fell off the beam lol

[larrymcg421]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

Did I hear right? The US has the four fastest times in the 110 hurdles but only three can qualify?

At the Olympic trials, the US men ran the #1, 2, 3, 4, 6, and 8 fastest times this year, but only three get to go to the Olympics.

[JPhillips]

Our track and field depth is absurd.

[SecretAgentMan]

Originally Posted by larrymcg421

That steeplechase race was super exciting. It was hilarious to see how stunned the Ethiopian runners were when the American ran by them.

You could see them shooting him looks as he went by them. Came out of nowhere!

[CrimsonFox]

Originally Posted by CrimsonFox

That was the balance beam podium after all the others fell off the beam lol

incidently i still think there could have been something wrong with the beam. Tilted slightly or something on it. I mean THAT many people falling is just bizarro

[Ghost Econ]

I suffered through enough gymnastics watching on TV and in person to know that it's just contagious some days, even for the best.

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by Ghost Econ

I suffered through enough gymnastics watching on TV and in person to know that it's just contagious some days, even for the best.

Yeah, I have seen whole Olympic competitions where it didn't seem like anyone could stay on the beam.

[JPhillips]

Quincy Hall's post-race interview was epic.

"You got peripheral vision for a reason."

[Ghost Econ]

Noah Lyles running with Covid is a choice.

[GrantDawg]

I have Covid right now. I don't like walking to the kitchen.

[Ghost Econ]

I'm perfectly(ish) healthy and work right next to my kitchen. I don't like walking that far.

[HerRealName]

Serbia came out hot. This one feels like it will be tight at the end.

[HerRealName]

It's weird that the USA defenders are leaving shooters open to float in the middle of nowhere. Adjust. Stay home.

[stevew]

15-29 from 3. Jeez.

[miami_fan]

Team USA down 13 to begin the 4th.

[stevew]

I don’t watch much Philly but is Embiid always this painful to watch? Get this dude off the floor ffs

[stevew]

And then scores to make up for shit rebounding

[bronconick]

Originally Posted by stevew

I don’t watch much Philly but is Embiid always this painful to watch? Get this dude off the floor ffs

Usually he's in street clothes if the game matters.

[CrimsonFox]

Originally Posted by Ghost Econ

I suffered through enough gymnastics watching on TV and in person to know that it's just contagious some days, even for the best.

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

Yeah, I have seen whole Olympic competitions where it didn't seem like anyone could stay on the beam.

heh thanks guys. I didn't realize that. so ghost econ...you just hang around gymnastics events all the time do you?

and grantdawg, that was pretty much what happened this time! at least with all the big names!

The BEST thing that came out of this was the pure joy that exploded out of Alice when she won gold. I never see that happen enough. Most of the big names are just kinda full of themselves/try to pass it off that it's no big deal or pump their fists or whatnot.

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by stevew

I don’t watch much Philly but is Embiid always this painful to watch? Get this dude off the floor ffs

He's a really bad fit for the international game.

Originally Posted by HerRealName

It's weird that the USA defenders are leaving shooters open to float in the middle of nowhere. Adjust. Stay home.

I honestly hadn't watched a ton of USA basketball the past couple of Olympics but watched the tune up games this year. Kerr's coaching is bad for this. He had every defender going under screens and leaving guys wide open and our bigs were consistently getting lost on pick and rolls or simple cuts to the basket.

[Icy]

Saw today the climbing race final and wtf?? they climbed the wall in less that 5 seconds!! Looked like superheroes flying up the wall.
You can skip the first 30 seconds of this video then... it's not fast forward even if it looks so.

Btw, the guy from USA ended third but beating the world record in the consolation final, faster than the two finalist.

[SirFozzie]

That Curry 3 to take the lead deserved a Mike Breen BANG!

[larrymcg421]

Sydney McLaughlin at the 400 hurdles is like Nadal at the French Open in his prime.

[stevew]

Seems like Bogdonovic to the Nuggets would make too much sense.

[cuervo72]

Originally Posted by Icy

Saw today the climbing race final and wtf?? they climbed the wall in less that 5 seconds!! Looked like superheroes flying up the wall.

Yeah, from what I saw I would have sworn the safety rope was aiding them up the wall.

[Lathum]

Seeing Woodhall celebrate with her husband was awesome

[SecretAgentMan]

Originally Posted by Icy

Saw today the climbing race final and wtf?? they climbed the wall in less that 5 seconds!! Looked like superheroes flying up the wall.
You can skip the first 30 seconds of this video then... it's not fast forward even if it looks so.

Btw, the guy from USA ended third but beating the world record in the consolation final, faster than the two finalist.

Supposedly the "combined" event in Sport Climbing is much more methodical, because they have to pick the best path to make their way up a wall they haven't seen before

[SecretAgentMan]

Originally Posted by larrymcg421

Sydney McLaughlin at the 400 hurdles is like Nadal at the French Open in his prime.

Her time would have nearly qualified for the final in the regular 400m, which is insane. I ran some 300m hurdles in high school, and I'm pretty sure Sydney's 400m hurdles beats my 300m time by...5-10 seconds? She is just absolutely phenomenal

[miami_fan]

Originally Posted by stevew

I don’t watch much Philly but is Embiid always this painful to watch? Get this dude off the floor ffs

I went back and watched the game again this morning. I had all the Embiid slander typed out and ready to post immediately after the game but decided to wait until after the rewatch.

The this that stood out for me with Embiid in this game and in the NBA is his inability to control/dominate a game from some other aspect beyond scoring. Embiid is talented enough to be able to score 20 points in most games that he plays against most players and teams. The difference between him and the other stars on Team USA and Jokic is if Embiid isn't giving you the points, he does not give you anything else. In the game yesterday we saw Lebron with rebounds and assists and KD and Booker playing incredible defense. Steph has set some incredible picks throughout the tournament to get guys open shots. All the stars that we know mostly for their abilities to score points have had long stretches where they were great doing some other part of the game. Of course on the other side, you have Jokic showing that the same can be done even if you are twice the size of a Steph and heavier that Booker and KD put together. If Embiid is not scoring, he does not give you anything else.

Embiid's scoring ability from just about anywhere on the court is without question. He also capable of giving you rebounds, defense etc. in spots. But he has not shown the ability to say for example the other guys will handle the scoring today, my focus will be on rebounding, or stopping my man on defense, setting picks or making the pass before the pass. Something where he is the focal point of something other than scoring. I don't think he will ever be in that sort of situation with the Sixers consistently though it might be beneficial overall for him and the team to have more nights where it falls on Maxey and now Paul George to do all the scoring and Embiid control the boards and locks down the paint. However in this situation where he is with the best of the best, that inability to be great at something other than scoring has been glaring.

[miami_fan]

VAR! VAR! VAR!

This gold medal game is nuts!

[sovereignstar v2]

More relay yikes

[Ghost Econ]

Next time we need to practice tossing it and catching it Willie Mays style.

[MIJB#19]

Originally Posted by Icy

Saw today the climbing race final and wtf?? they climbed the wall in less that 5 seconds!! Looked like superheroes flying up the wall.
You can skip the first 30 seconds of this video then... it's not fast forward even if it looks so.

Btw, the guy from USA ended third but beating the world record in the consolation final, faster than the two finalist.

Sam Watson losing in the semifinals was one of the biggest upsets at these Olympics across all sports.

[bronconick]

Originally Posted by sovereignstar v2

More relay yikes

Someone needs to splice the 24 years of Olympic fails into Yakety Sax.

[MIJB#19]

Originally Posted by larrymcg421

Sydney McLaughlin at the 400 hurdles is like Nadal at the French Open in his prime.

I guess that makes Nafih Thiam like being the Nadal, Djokovic and Federer of Athletics all in one.

[thesloppy]

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