2012-2013 MLB Offseason Thread: Go forth to the 2013 MLB Thread

[Crapshoot]

What JIMGA said. Its a big bet on the Jays, but I'd guesstimate the AL East next year (as of this time) as:

- Rays
- Yanks
- Red Sox
- Jays
- Orioles

Still, this is the kinda trade that in an OOTP league, would get you kicked out for dumping.

[SackAttack]

With the Yankees tightening their belt and key pieces getting older or coming off of injuries, I'm betting next year looks something like:

O's
Rays
Jays
Yankees
Sox

Unless the Sox take their newfound financial flexibility and go full retard on Greinke and Hamilton.

[stevew]

Yankees 93-69
Rays 89-73
Jays 85-77
Orioles 83-79
Red Sox 74-88

[Young Drachma]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

And even with the trade, I don't figure the Jays for better than 3rd place next year.

The Jays aren't stopping here. There will be other deals and FA signings.

[Young Drachma]

The Jays will win the AL East next year. I'm posting it now. the Rays don't spend and are due for a downturn, the O's were just lucky this year, the Yanks will struggle and the Red Sox stink.

But I agree this thing is one of those OOTP trades that would never get accepted.

[stevew]

The orioles are obviously due for a major regression. They were +11 last year, the largest overachieving team since the 2008 Angels.

[Shkspr]

Originally Posted by stevew

The orioles are obviously due for a major regression. They were +11 last year, the largest overachieving team since the 2008 Angels.

If they regress the way the 2009 Angels did, I think they'll take it.

[bhlloy]

Like someone said, in a vacuum this wouldn't be the worst trade in the world. It's obviously the situation and the history that makes it an absolute travesty.

But if this was the first action of a new GM taking over a team that was pretty bad the year before, you'd probably look at it and say "wow, that's a pretty nice deal to get rid of all that salary"

Lurie is a joke though. We do have some real crooks running franchises in most (if not all of) the major sports.

[ISiddiqui]

Originally Posted by bhlloy

Like someone said, in a vacuum this wouldn't be the worst trade in the world. It's obviously the situation and the history that makes it an absolute travesty.

But if this was the first action of a new GM taking over a team that was pretty bad the year before, you'd probably look at it and say "wow, that's a pretty nice deal to get rid of all that salary"

Lurie is a joke though. We do have some real crooks running franchises in most (if not all of) the major sports.

All true. I mean if you look at it by itself, you realize it may be a pretty decent trade as Johnson & Burhle were merely average last year, and Buck & Bonifacio were not that good at all, while Reyes was the only one really above average, but not nearly enough to justify his deal. Compounding it is the Marlins' horrid record last season. However, considering the trades made before this one and who is behind it, it's just a complete and total fire sale and horrible stuff.

[Blackadar]

Originally Posted by ISiddiqui

All true. I mean if you look at it by itself, you realize it may be a pretty decent trade as Johnson & Burhle were merely average last year, and Buck & Bonifacio were not that good at all, while Reyes was the only one really above average, but not nearly enough to justify his deal. Compounding it is the Marlins' horrid record last season. However, considering the trades made before this one and who is behind it, it's just a complete and total fire sale and horrible stuff.

Just to be factual:

Johnson wasn't merely average. He had a WAR of 3.1, pitched 191 innings and had an ERA of 3.81. That's a very solid staff starter.

Burhle's WAR was better - 3.2 - with 200 innings pitched and an ERA of 3.74. Ditto about the solid staff starter.

Bonifacio was injured much of the year, but if he recovers the Jays get a 27 year old CF who can hit at the top of the order (.360 OBA, 40 steals in 2011). He also has the advantage of being position-flexible to play 3rd base and even SS.

I agree...Buck isn't worth much.

And of course Reyes is a 4 time All Star in the prime of his career.

The real kicker is only Burhle could be considered on the "downside" of his career at 33. All of these guys should be solid contributors for another 3-4 years. Those are a lot of very solid pieces you can build a team around.

[DaddyTorgo]

Originally Posted by SackAttack

With the Yankees tightening their belt and key pieces getting older or coming off of injuries, I'm betting next year looks something like:

O's
Rays
Jays
Yankees
Sox

Unless the Sox take their newfound financial flexibility and go full retard on Greinke and Hamilton.

God I hope they don't do that - are you serious??

Greinke doesn't have the mental makeup to play in Boston. He'd crumble after his first poor start.

And Hamilton would totally fall off the wagon. No doubt.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by Blackadar

Those are a lot of very solid pieces you can build a team around.

It worked so well for the Marlins after all.

I guess I'll add a there but it's not entirely facetious either.

[SackAttack]

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

God I hope they don't do that - are you serious??

Search your feelings, DT.

You know it to be true.

[molson]

If the Red Sox were serious about spending the money they've saved, they would have made a deal like the Blue Jays did. They wouldn't immediately go back down the road of high-bust-risk free agents. I really think payroll's going to be down for a while, the team will be sold, and then we'll see.

[miked]

I mean, can a league kick out an owner? I can't believe after everything he's done the league (and other owners) would want him around.

[DaddyTorgo]

Originally Posted by molson

If the Red Sox were serious about spending the money they've saved, they would have made a deal like the Blue Jays did. They wouldn't immediately go back down the road of high-bust-risk free agents. I really think payroll's going to be down for a while, the team will be sold, and then we'll see.

I tend to agree. But I don't think it will be "a while." I think Henry is trying to unload them before the end of this coming year.

[Blackadar]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

It worked so well for the Marlins after all.

I guess I'll add a there but it's not entirely facetious either.

Yeah, but there wasn't a team around those guys in Miami. Just a bunch of scrubs (except for Stanton). Heck, the next best pitching WAR on the team is like 1.5. The WAR for the entire pitching staff is 11.1...and they just traded the two guys that made up more than half of that number.

Plus, they had to play for Ozzie Guillen.

[miami_fan]

Originally Posted by miked

I mean, can a league kick out an owner? I can't believe after everything he's done the league (and other owners) would want him around.

I would think that Toronto's ownership would be absolutely in love with Jeffery Loria today.

[ISiddiqui]

Originally Posted by miked

I mean, can a league kick out an owner? I can't believe after everything he's done the league (and other owners) would want him around.

Marge Schott was kicked out, IIRC

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by Blackadar

Yeah, but there wasn't a team around those guys in Miami. Just a bunch of scrubs (except for Stanton). Heck, the next best pitching WAR on the team is like 1.5. The WAR for the entire pitching staff is 11.1...and they just traded the two guys that made up more than half of that number.

Plus, they had to play for Ozzie Guillen.

Top 5 (most starts) for Toronto last year had WARs of 3.2, 1.2, 0.3, 0.1, -1.7
Top 3 other starters for Miami last year had WARs of 1.5, 1.4, 0.2

Just for the heck of it, since I'm on the page already

8 most AB's for Jays (minus Escobar) ...
0.7, 5.1, 0.9, 2.0, 0.2, 1.2, 3.0, 0.0
8 most AB's for Marlins (not counting players in this trade...
4.2, -0.2, -0.1, -0.2, 2.2, 0.9, -1.3, 0.3

[panerd]

Originally Posted by miked

I mean, can a league kick out an owner? I can't believe after everything he's done the league (and other owners) would want him around.

I'm torn on this one. So on one hand you have what he did to the Expos and how he alienates the Marlin's fans every other year. On the other hand in the past 20 years...

WORLD CHAMPIONSHIPS
Yankees
Cardinals/Giants/Red Sox/Marlins
Braves/Diamondbacks/Angels/Phillies
Everyone Else

So what is the point?
1. Make money
2. Win titles
3. Make fans happy

I really don't know the answer but he seems to have 1 and 2 down.

[Johnny93g]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

Top 5 (most starts) for Toronto last year had WARs of 3.2, 1.2, 0.3, 0.1, -1.7
Top 3 other starters for Miami last year had WARs of 1.5, 1.4, 0.2

Just for the heck of it, since I'm on the page already

8 most AB's for Jays (minus Escobar) ...
0.7, 5.1, 0.9, 2.0, 0.2, 1.2, 3.0, 0.0
8 most AB's for Marlins (not counting players in this trade...
4.2, -0.2, -0.1, -0.2, 2.2, 0.9, -1.3, 0.3

Are you aware of the massive amount of injuries suffered by Blue Jays last year.

Yes, injuries are part of the game, but they directly effect last years production.

[lungs]

Too bad Pujols didn't sign with the Marlins.

[ISiddiqui]

Not that all of this hasn't been said and re-said and hashed out, but Nate Silver (fresh off predicting the pants off the 2012 election) weighs in on the AL MVP debate:

The Statistical Case Against Cabrera for M.V.P. - NYTimes.com

[Young Drachma]

Originally Posted by Johnny93g

Are you aware of the massive amount of injuries suffered by Blue Jays last year.

Yes, injuries are part of the game, but they directly effect last years production.

This.

[Blackadar]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

Top 5 (most starts) for Toronto last year had WARs of 3.2, 1.2, 0.3, 0.1, -1.7
Top 3 other starters for Miami last year had WARs of 1.5, 1.4, 0.2

Just for the heck of it, since I'm on the page already

8 most AB's for Jays (minus Escobar) ...
0.7, 5.1, 0.9, 2.0, 0.2, 1.2, 3.0, 0.0
8 most AB's for Marlins (not counting players in this trade...
4.2, -0.2, -0.1, -0.2, 2.2, 0.9, -1.3, 0.3

Exactly. Now Toronto will have 3 starters with WARs over 3 (Brandon Morrow, Burhle and Johnson) and add a couple of solid pieces to their lineup (Rayes and Bonifacio, assuming he's healthy). This trade plugs a lot of holes for Toronto, especially on that starting rotation.

So just from a WAR standpoint, Toronto is looking at approximately 8-10 more wins from this deal. Half a win from Rayes, 2.5 from a healthy Bonifacio and over 6 from the 2 pitchers. Of course, that's purely projection based on past performance - the dynamics could be anything from no benefit whatsoever to 15-20 wins more.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by SackAttack

Unless the Sox take their newfound financial flexibility and go full retard on Greinke and Hamilton.

You never go full retard.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Shkspr

If they regress the way the 2009 Angels did, I think they'll take it.

Thank you. I was wondering if someone would point that out.

[NorvTurnerOverdrive]

couldn't the marlins have gotten a better return had they sold the pieces individually? seems like they could have gotten a bunch of 2 for 1 deals

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by Blackadar

So just from a WAR standpoint, Toronto is looking at approximately 8-10 more wins from this deal. Half a win from Rayes, 2.5 from a healthy Bonifacio and over 6 from the 2 pitchers. Of course, that's purely projection based on past performance - the dynamics could be anything from no benefit whatsoever to 15-20 wins more.

For a team that was 22 games out of first in their division, 20 games out of 2nd, 17 games out of 3rd (and 20 games out of the wildcard).

Yeah, they'll be better. The others might even be worse. But I still see a 3rd place team here, even if the improvement is 50% more than their WAR value suggests.

[lungs]

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

Greinke doesn't have the mental makeup to play in Boston. He'd crumble after his first poor start.

Sorry, but that's just a heaping pile of horseshit that the media won't let die. His anxiety issues haven't been an issue for years and playing in a big market has nothing to do with it.

[Blackadar]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

For a team that was 22 games out of first in their division, 20 games out of 2nd, 17 games out of 3rd (and 20 games out of the wildcard).

Yeah, they'll be better. The others might even be worse. But I still see a 3rd place team here, even if the improvement is 50% more than their WAR value suggests.

We don't disagree - I still don't see the firepower needed to capture the AL East. But they're a lot closer.

[miami_fan]

There's Shrewd, There's Genius, Then There's Marlins Owner Jeffrey Loria - The Triangle Blog - Grantland

One paragraph pretty much sums up my feelings on this deal and Jeffery Loria.

The last remaining argument against Loria is that he broke his covenant with fans, that he's no longer even pretending to value winning over profit. There are many Marlins fans who feel betrayed by the team's tear-down, just as there were Expos fans who were crushed by that team's demise. Those are legitimate concerns. They're also not Loria's concerns. The money will still roll in, and Major League Baseball won't do anything to threaten his seat at the table. If and when he does decide to sell the team, another colossal payout will be his reward.

[DaddyTorgo]

Originally Posted by lungs

Sorry, but that's just a heaping pile of horseshit that the media won't let die. His anxiety issues haven't been an issue for years and playing in a big market has nothing to do with it.

I disagree. I'm sure he's a nice guy, and I don't blame him for it or anything, but I wouldn't want to put a big money bet on the fact that he (of all people) would perform well under the ridiculous media-spotlight that this town puts on its sports figures.

[Young Drachma]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

For a team that was 22 games out of first in their division, 20 games out of 2nd, 17 games out of 3rd (and 20 games out of the wildcard).

Yeah, they'll be better. The others might even be worse. But I still see a 3rd place team here, even if the improvement is 50% more than their WAR value suggests.

Originally Posted by Blackadar

We don't disagree - I still don't see the firepower needed to capture the AL East. But they're a lot closer.

They're not done shopping. This is just the start. Still a bunch of prospects that could be dealt and a few guys who are made expendable because of this deal that can be flipped.

[Izulde]

Originally Posted by panerd

I'm torn on this one. So on one hand you have what he did to the Expos and how he alienates the Marlin's fans every other year. On the other hand in the past 20 years...

WORLD CHAMPIONSHIPS
Yankees
Cardinals/Giants/Red Sox/Marlins
Braves/Diamondbacks/Angels/Phillies
Everyone Else

So what is the point?
1. Make money
2. Win titles
3. Make fans happy

I really don't know the answer but he seems to have 1 and 2 down.

Excuse me. You forgot the White Sox title in 2005.

[Honolulu_Blue]

Tigers sign Torii Hunter, 2 yrs $13 million per year.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by Honolulu_Blue

Tigers sign Torii Hunter, 2 yrs $13 million per year.

Hmm ... wonder if that makes the Braves/Dennard Span rumor a little more likely?

Knowing Wren, he'll get Willingham but not Span

[BishopMVP]

Originally Posted by oykib

Old Hoss Radbourn ‏@OldHossRadbourn

Oh no, J. Loria is murdering another team.

Old Hoss Radbourn ‏@OldHossRadbourn

"If only we could figure out the identity of the Montreal Strangler before he kills again," said "Bud" Selig, perched on a throne of money.

So, apparently Old Hoss Radbourn was the first person ever photographed flipping the camera off. Was this common knowledge? 8 Ordinary Photos Hiding Mind-Blowing Details | Cracked.com

Originally Posted by ISiddiqui

Not that all of this hasn't been said and re-said and hashed out, but Nate Silver (fresh off predicting the pants off the 2012 election) weighs in on the AL MVP debate:

The Statistical Case Against Cabrera for M.V.P. - NYTimes.com

He's using a WAR+6 model and incorrectly weighting RBI's vs. SB's, when he should be using VORP+4[/unbiasedvoter]

[stevew]

Beuhrle's deal gets crazy next year. Tor better pray he has value.

[NorvTurnerOverdrive]

Originally Posted by miami_fan

There's Shrewd, There's Genius, Then There's Marlins Owner Jeffrey Loria - The Triangle Blog - Grantland

One paragraph pretty much sums up my feelings on this deal and Jeffery Loria.

it really is amazing that the free market capitalists that make up sports owners set up systems that prevent 'small market teams' from failing.

then shrewd small market owners exploit the system to make island nation gdp cash

[BishopMVP]

Originally Posted by NorvTurnerOverdrive

it really is amazing that the free market capitalists that make up sports owners set up systems that prevent 'small market teams' from failing.

then shrewd small market owners exploit the system to make island nation gdp cash

A lot of it is certainly due to PR, but there is the inherent argument that part of the Yankees value derives from beating teams the public cares about, and thus they're in competition together vs. other leagues and other sports rather than trying to drive each other out of business as in most fields. You can't monopolize all of the baseball.

[lungs]

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

I disagree. I'm sure he's a nice guy, and I don't blame him for it or anything, but I wouldn't want to put a big money bet on the fact that he (of all people) would perform well under the ridiculous media-spotlight that this town puts on its sports figures.

While neither of us can prove anything unless he would sign in Boston/New York, I view his original anxiety issues as more of a medical issue than anything. Of course there is always risk for anybody that's had mental health issues, but it's been years since any of that has been a concern and all evidence points to his having the issues under control.

Basically, it's not an issue. His issue that keeps him from being a truly great pitcher is leaving too many pitches over the middle of the plate. He's a damn good pitcher, just not a great one. With all the hype that he had coming into the league and his problems that proceeded, it seems like people have a tendency to hang a medical issue over him when they just need to see him for what he is.

I don't see him signing with the Red Sox though. His desire for winner attribute is sky high

[stevew]

The Marlins must have decided to run their black Friday sale a week early.

[Suicane75]

If the Blue Jays were to start Goose, Bonifacio, Reyes and Davis all in the same game would that be the fastest team ever? Those 4 surrounding Lawrie, Encarnacion, Bautista & Arancebia would be fun to watch on an every day basis.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Honolulu_Blue

Tigers sign Torii Hunter, 2 yrs $13 million per year.

Solid get for the Tigers. Torii does enough with the bat and the field to justify that salary (at least over the next two years), but he adds so much more with his clubhouse presence, clubhouse enthusiasm and how great he is with the fans and media.

I'll definitely miss having him with the Angels. I am behind them feeling they needed to spend their money elsewhere, but offering him just a one year, $5 M deal is pretty insulting for how well he had played for them. If you're going to go another direction, no need to insult him. Just tell him thank you for the years and good luck with free agency.

[Izulde]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

Solid get for the Tigers. Torii does enough with the bat and the field to justify that salary (at least over the next two years), but he adds so much more with his clubhouse presence, clubhouse enthusiasm and how great he is with the fans and media.

I'll definitely miss having him with the Angels. I am behind them feeling they needed to spend their money elsewhere, but offering him just a one year, $5 M deal is pretty insulting for how well he had played for them. If you're going to go another direction, no need to insult him. Just tell him thank you for the years and good luck with free agency.

Yeah not happy to see him go to a division rival.

[Johnny93g]

Originally Posted by Blackadar

So just from a WAR standpoint, Toronto is looking at approximately 8-10 more wins from this deal. Half a win from Rayes, 2.5 from a healthy Bonifacio and over 6 from the 2 pitchers. Of course, that's purely projection based on past performance - the dynamics could be anything from no benefit whatsoever to 15-20 wins more.

From a WAR standpoint, and in a perfect world-

Wouldn't Arencibia, Lawrie, Rasmus, Bautista, Morrow, Happ, and Santos all be more productive from injury free seasons....

I'm not suggesting the Jays will be injury free next year, but damn, they fielded a AAA team for most of July and August!

Does Ricky Romero have even a slight bounce back? It would be hard to be worse...

What I'm assuming here is that WAR only measures people who played and were healthy. What good is the stat for predicting how good this team "COULD BE" if healthy in 2013?

[Honolulu_Blue]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

Solid get for the Tigers. Torii does enough with the bat and the field to justify that salary (at least over the next two years), but he adds so much more with his clubhouse presence, clubhouse enthusiasm and how great he is with the fans and media.

I'll definitely miss having him with the Angels. I am behind them feeling they needed to spend their money elsewhere, but offering him just a one year, $5 M deal is pretty insulting for how well he had played for them. If you're going to go another direction, no need to insult him. Just tell him thank you for the years and good luck with free agency.

It feels like a good signing. Sure, he's old, but even at his age he's a huge upgrade over what the Tigers had at the corner outfielders. With V-Mart coming back and Torii Hunter, their line-up should look a lot better.

[MikeVic]

Originally Posted by Suicane75

If the Blue Jays were to start Goose, Bonifacio, Reyes and Davis all in the same game would that be the fastest team ever? Those 4 surrounding Lawrie, Encarnacion, Bautista & Arancebia would be fun to watch on an every day basis.

Yeah, it could be really fun. Whatever else this trade does, what it means for me as a fan is being more excited about the upcoming season than any previous year in recent memory. I was 10 when they won the second World Series, and that got me into baseball. There were a couple of seasons awhile ago (with Halladay, Lilly, around that time frame) where I was more excited than this... otherwise, this is a pretty nice feeling right now and should hopefully be a fun AL East race/AL wild card race.