FOFC GroupThink 2023: We take over the Detroit Lions

[Bobble]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

By the way, I'm now back into YES to DT Jalen Carter if he's available at 1.6. Not sure if that's a point of agreement here, but I'm in.

I'd like to hear your case for that vis-à-vis MCDC's "No Turds" policy.

Feels like there's just too many red flags to gamble on him. I trust the staff to do their due diligence so if they take him, I'm on board but from the outside, I feel like I want to be a little conservative with fledgling culture we're building.

[Honolulu_Blue]

Originally Posted by thesloppy

Vatai seems like he's been an albatross practically as soon as he signed & yet I'd almost be happy to continue to overpay him just to keep that line as undisturbed as possible. This is the best Lions OL in like 2-3 decades at least.

Looks like Vaitai is staying put. They reworked his contract such that he’s taking a pretty big pay cut that frees up $7 million more in cap space this year. With both Glasgow and Vaitai in the mix, it feels like the offensive line is pretty well set. This move takes another pressing need off the draft board.

[Bobble]

Originally Posted by Honolulu_Blue

This move takes another pressing need off the draft board.

Leaving not much as a need in the draft. What, IDL? QB, RB, O-line are all fine. You can want a WR but we might keep Chark and even if not, can you call it a need? I don't think you can say DE is a need, either. Maybe you'd love an upgrade but not need. LB is fine and not something the staff puts a lot of premium on anyway. Secondary is covered (HA!).

Feels good to go into the draft with a lot of capitol free to pick BPA.

[Solecismic]

Most GMs preach BPA except when it comes to QBs. There are always adequate players elsewhere, but you make a difference when your BPA ends up making an impact. If you're need-picking in the third round, you're quite likely to end up picking up roster-filler.

[QuikSand]

The Detroit front office is seemingly having a very solid offseason. What the hell is going on?

[albionmoonlight]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

The Detroit front office is seemingly having a very solid offseason. What the hell is going on?

Maybe Dan Campbell is a lurker on this board?

[thesloppy]

Yeah, seeing tons of good press for the Lions this offseason, a very new feeling to a Lions fan. There have been years where we supposedly 'won' the draft, but those players had no choice to come here (and most of those supposed wins fell apart off paper), and there have been years where the Lions managed to lure in top-tier free agents with top-tier contract, but there has seemingly never been a time when valuable players were wanting to come to Detroit & would even take less money to do so.

[QuikSand]

Just did a throwaway Lions mock on Fanspeak site, using the first option in each segment for setup... had to ignore Will Anderson at pick 6 and again at pick 18 in the interests of realism (cough cough) but ended up in a pretty familiar zone, I think:

6: R1 P6 CB Devon Witherspoon - Illinois
18: R1 P18 EDGE Lukas Van Ness - Iowa
48: R2 P17 DL Siaki Ika - Baylor
55: R2 P24 TE Luke Musgrave - Oregon State
81: R3 P18 LB Noah Sewell - Oregon
152: R5 P17 S Rashad Torrence II - Florida
183: R6 P6 LB DeMarvion Overshown - Texas
194: R6 P17 G Alex Forsyth - Oregon

[QuikSand]

Running a Detroit mock on PFN... found a random article from last summer...

Top college quarterback rankings 2022: C.J Stroud, Bryce Young, Clayton Tune round out the top three

Title was "Top college quarterback rankings 2022: C.J Stroud, Bryce Young, Clayton Tune round out the top three"

So... now I lke the angle of throwing a dart at Clayton Tune out of Houston, who is a mid-round prospect at this point, based on "prior hype."

In this mock, we accepted a huge offer from the Chargers for pick 1.6, and racked up a future 1st, still landing a nice looking complement:

1.18 EDGE Lukas Van Ness, Iowa
1.21 TE Dalton Kincaid, Utah
2.17 DT Siaki Ika, Baylor
2.23 CB Deonta Banks, Maryland
2.24 LB Noah Sewell, Oregon
3.xx G Steve Avila, TCU
(152) QB Clayton Tune, Houston
...

[thesloppy]

Not considering who/how to fill them, my priorities right now feel like WR3, ILB, EDGE, DT & TE in that order.

[QuikSand]

I guess missing out on Chark means WR moves up the list here, so yeah.

I presume they'll get a compensatory pick out of that, at least. Smart.

[albionmoonlight]

The question, I think, is whether we want to use our cap space to try and solve the WR issue before the draft?

There are a few options out there, all with upside and downside.

DeAndre Hopkins A true X WR who has proven he can play in this league. Could probably be had for a 2nd or 3rd round pick b/c his cap hit makes him less valuable. Getting older, but his game never depended on speed, so he might age well for a WR. Football wise, he and Williams on the outside with St. Brown in the slot works really well. Alpha-dog wise, I'd have to be very comfortable that he and St. Brown can exist in the same locker room without constant dick measuring contests.

Jerry Jeudy Hasn't really put up the numbers that his reputation would lead you to believe. And his catch rate has been consistently low. But he's only 23, and Denver has been kind of a shitshow offensively. I doubt that he'd even be available, but you are hearing rumors, and maybe he's just not Sean Payton's type. Also, the Broncos, having traded for a coach and a QB, might want some draft capital back. Would we give up #18 for him?

OBJ No draft capital needed. Just cap space (which we have). Does he have anything left after his injuries? And will he be willing to be on a team where he isn't the man?

I think that I'd make a decent play for OBJ. And I'd make an offer for Hopkins. I'd probably not go for Jeudy at what I suspect Denver's price will be (a first round pick). YMMV.

[albionmoonlight]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

Running a Detroit mock on PFN... found a random article from last summer...

Top college quarterback rankings 2022: C.J Stroud, Bryce Young, Clayton Tune round out the top three

Title was "Top college quarterback rankings 2022: C.J Stroud, Bryce Young, Clayton Tune round out the top three"

So... now I lke the angle of throwing a dart at Clayton Tune out of Houston, who is a mid-round prospect at this point, based on "prior hype."

In this mock, we accepted a huge offer from the Chargers for pick 1.6, and racked up a future 1st, still landing a nice looking complement:

1.18 EDGE Lukas Van Ness, Iowa
1.21 TE Dalton Kincaid, Utah
2.17 DT Siaki Ika, Baylor
2.23 CB Deonta Banks, Maryland
2.24 LB Noah Sewell, Oregon
3.xx G Steve Avila, TCU
(152) QB Clayton Tune, Houston
...

A trade where we get a future first is a nice Goff hedge, too.

[QuikSand]

I think we could get Jeudy for the 1.18... my main wariness is his style similarity with St. Brown. Neither guy is a true X. If we wanted to target a guy from Denver, I'd want Sutton, who honestly ought to be cheaper anyway, but sizes up more closely with the team need.

[QuikSand]

FanSpeak
DB is SteelerNation or somesuch, who the hell knows
default options

I'mma take a turn here with pick 6, since it might be in play in real life...

6: R1 P6 QB Anthony Richardson - Florida
18: R1 P18 DL Calijah Kancey - Pittsburgh
48: R2 P17 LB Jack Campbell - Iowa
55: R2 P24 TE Sam LaPorta - Iowa
81: R3 P18 CB Garrett Williams - Syracuse
152: R5 P17 WR Kearis Jackson - Georgia
183: R6 P6 G T.J. Bass - Oregon
194: R6 P17 FB Hunter Luepke - North Dakota State

I guess I am buying in, a bit, to the theory that "if this team is indeed on the right track, they won't have this easy an opportunity to draft a top-tier QB prospect again anytime soon, so maybe get one now"

[QuikSand]

I'm taking an Oregon OL in every draft because vibes

[Honolulu_Blue]

I like those vibes! I am down with them. Either an Oregon OL or Sewell's little brother.

Looking at various sites, they list the Lions biggest post-FA needs as generally: DT, LB, TE, interior OL, back-up QB and CB. I agree that WR3 is still a need, but maybe not as high a priority since we're talking WR3 and not a WR1 or 2.

The Lions really struggled against the run. Even during their "get right" period in the second half of the season, they were still absolutely gashed by Carolina in that one game. They gave up an average of 5.2 yards per carry, which isn't good. Their current DTs aren't stout enough against the run, which is why Jalen Carter feels like such a good fit, assuming his available and the team clears him. He's massive and could really help solidify the run defense with a large presence in the middle.

I think an upgrade at LB would help here as well. A combination of undersized, penetrating type DTs and poor LB play isn't great for a solid run defense. It's another reason why I don't think Clancy is a great fit for this team at DT, as much as I like him.

They have a bunch of UDFAs at TE. They made it work post-Hockenson, but an upgrade would be huge.

They have talked again and again at needed to sort out the back-up spot for Goff and they haven't. It's still only Nate Sudfeld.

While the Lions have totally rebuilt their secondary through free agency, Cameron Sutton is the only CB of note on the roster signed after this year.

[QuikSand]

https://twitter.com/mathbomb/status/...k0QxGYTxadQwhA

[Honolulu_Blue]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

https://twitter.com/mathbomb/status/...k0QxGYTxadQwhA

I wouldn't say no to this!

A few updates:

The Lions are reportedly interested in 36 year old Calais Campbell to add some more size and depth at defensive tackle.

They seem to have signaled that they, like most of the league, are out on Lamar Jackson. This makes sense. Jackson would not only seriously disrupt the Lions cap structure, but, also, cost some good draft capital. On top of that, they would have to completely overhaul their offense to suit his talents. There are, also, the injury concerns for a quarterback so reliant on his athleticism and running and his shortcomings in the passing game. It was never a great fit given where the Lions are at and their current roster construction.

[albionmoonlight]

I wonder if Calais Campbell might be slightly more inclined to take a team-friendly incentive-heavy deal because the Lions look like a fun team on the rise. That is one of the side benefits that good teams get. Veteran players who like the money but don't need the money are willing to take less to play for you.

I'm glad that we are kicking the tires on him.

And I'm not sure when/how the team does it, but I've decided that another pass catcher has gone from a "be nice to have" to a "you know, we really need one."

There's St. Brown and then a guy who we are all high on but who has one NFL catch in his career. And then, as someone noted early in this thread, a bunch of guys who are #5 WRs.

I'd try and get this done before the draft, and I'm willing to trade one of our 2nd rounders to do it. We don't need Randy Moss. But we do need a reliable NFL-starter-quality possession WR.

[albionmoonlight]

dola: Along those lines, the Bucs have somewhat notably not extended or restructured Mike Evans.

He's on the last year of a deal that would cost us $13,000,000 to take on.

30 years old, but he's a guy who never relied on blazing speed. I think that his game will age well, and I'd certainly be picking up the phone and calling TB and seeing what they think.

[Bobble]

Sounds like Calais Campbell going to the Falcons. Oh, well...

[QuikSand]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

And I'm not sure when/how the team does it, but I've decided that another pass catcher has gone from a "be nice to have" to a "you know, we really need one."

There's St. Brown and then a guy who we are all high on but who has one NFL catch in his career. And then, as someone noted early in this thread, a bunch of guys who are #5 WRs.

I'd try and get this done before the draft, and I'm willing to trade one of our 2nd rounders to do it. We don't need Randy Moss. But we do need a reliable NFL-starter-quality possession WR.

I have moved this direction as well. If they are playing the compensatory pick game and targeting a guy for after June 1 (or whenever the pivot date for that consideration is) I guess that's fine, but I agree... by camp, we need one more horse in the barn who can play a credible WR2.

[thesloppy]

Yeah, I've already put myself down as part of this camp. This WR group is questionable as is, but seems like you should also prepare for 1-2 rolling injuries in your WR room, throughout the season. One injury could take this group from questionable to crap in an instant.

[Honolulu_Blue]

This makes sense. Amon-Ra St. Brown was injured for a few games last year - he was barely active in the New England and Dallas games - and the offense was ground down to a halt. It was pretty ugly. Having another decent option, in addition to Jameson Williams, would be a good idea.

St. Brown is a top receiver in this league and moves the needle, but relying on just him, essentially a rookie, and depth guys is not a recipe for success, especially considering the lack of high-end talent at TE.

This receiver class is tiny AF and odd. If we're looking for a Big X type receiver there appears to be Quentin Johnston, AT Perry, and Cedric Tillman.

[Honolulu_Blue]

Fellas, the FOFC GroupThink Tank is locked in AF with this team. The Lions just went out and signed former Lion WR and known crooner Marvin Jones Jr.

He’s not Mike Evans, but he’s a veteran WR and a good down the field, deep ball threat that adds a little more talent and something different to the WR room.

It’s a one year, $3 million deal that can reach $5 million with incentives.

[thesloppy]

Nice! I really enjoyed Marvin on his earlier stretch with the Lions. Good dude who was productive and was relatively quiet and humble for a WR. I was disappointed/surprised he didn't produce as well outdside of Detroit, but I guess that only lowered the price tag to get him back in the building.

[QuikSand]

Really like the Jones signing, yesssss

[thesloppy]

Originally Posted by thesloppy

Not considering who/how to fill them, my priorities right now feel like WR3, ILB, EDGE, DT & TE in that order.

The Jones signing fills the only hole left that felt anywhere near urgent. I think my priorities have shifted a little again though, and I'd leapfrog TE to the front of the needs now: TE, ILB, EDGE & DT.

I still think a good ILB could/would make the most difference on this team, but we could probably get by with what's there. Same with edge and dt, but to a lesser degree. On the other hand the TEs are all nobodies & It suddenly seems like the position that could provide the biggest upgrade, even if it hasn't been a very important position in this offense. Adding another premier blocker to this line and/or another receiving threat would be a nice luxury to have at this point.

[albionmoonlight]

Jones for 1 yr $3-5 million?

That's a great deal. Pretty much zero risk and fills a huge need.

It is fun to speculate about Mike Evans trades, but these smaller moneyball type signings are what serious teams do that plan to be competitive for the longer term.

[albionmoonlight]

Originally Posted by thesloppy

The Jones signing fills the only hole left that felt anywhere near urgent. I think my priorities have shifted a little again though, and I'd leapfrog TE to the front of the needs now: TE, ILB, EDGE & DT.

I still think a good ILB could/would make the most difference on this team, but we could probably get by with what's there. Same with edge and dt, but to a lesser degree. On the other hand the TEs are all nobodies & It suddenly seems like the position that could provide the biggest upgrade, even if it hasn't been a very important position in this offense. Adding another premier blocker to this line and/or another receiving threat would be a nice luxury to have at this point.

The good news is that everyone is raving about how TE is so deep this year. Seems easy to pick one up in round 2 or 3.

Or do we even consider Washington with 1.18? Get a NFL-ready blocking TE with serious red zone receiving upside?

[QuikSand]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

Jones for 1 yr $3-5 million?

That's a great deal. Pretty much zero risk and fills a huge need.

Specifically, I don't know how the calculations will work, but next year they might end up gathering some net reward in the tradeoff from Chark to Jones. A compensatory pick for someone else signing Chark, and either a lesser or no loss for signing Jones. So, that adds to the value here, I think.

It's clear they don't see either guy as a 2025+ asset, so... this move seems to make all the sense in the world to me.

[QuikSand]

From PFN, no trades, here's a "we catch all the breaks" draft opener...

DET
6. Jalen Carter DT Georgia
18. Lukas Van Ness EDGE Iowa
48. Jack Campbell LB Iowa
55. Darnell Washington TE Georgia
81. Siaki Ika DT Baylor

[QuikSand]

...I think I took Ika out of muscle memory, doubt they'd double down at DI like that. But that's good value at each pick... plug in best CB available at 81 maybe.

[Brian Swartz]

Don't want Carter at this point unless they know something that isn't public. I'd also much sooner take a defensive player than a TE.

[Honolulu_Blue]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

The good news is that everyone is raving about how TE is so deep this year. Seems easy to pick one up in round 2 or 3.

Or do we even consider Washington with 1.18? Get a NFL-ready blocking TE with serious red zone receiving upside?

The idea of lining Washington up next to Sewell and running that way is... exciting.

[thesloppy]

Originally Posted by Honolulu_Blue

The idea of lining Washington up next to Sewell and running that way is... exciting.

Yeah, I love the idea.

On a different note I feel like backup QB is now a real need....not a development QB, but someone who could potentially take over for Goff in the case of injury & still play at a relatively high level. It feels like Holmes has plugged up the holes at any other position where an injury might send this team into an immediate tailspin, but Nate Sudfeld is not a legit backup in my mind, and an injury to Goff certainly doesn't seem all that unlikely.

[Honolulu_Blue]

Originally Posted by thesloppy

Yeah, I love the idea.

On a different note I feel like backup QB is now a real need....not a development QB, but someone who could potentially take over for Goff in the case of injury & still play at a relatively high level. It feels like Holmes has plugged up the holes at any other position where an injury might send this team into an immediate tailspin, but Nate Sudfeld is not a legit backup in my mind, and an injury to Goff certainly doesn't seem all that unlikely.

Agreed.

I was just looking at a recent ESPN 7 round lock and they had the Lions taking Tyree Wilson and Deonte Banks (CB) in the first and Keeanu Benton (DT) and Hendon Hooker (QB) in the second.

The thing about drafting Hooker is that he’s likely not going to be able to address the backup problem this year. Also, he’s old, coming off an ACL and played in an offense that isn’t viable in the NFL. I’m not sold on him. I generally don’t like the idea of using a day two pick an a QB. I feel you should be getting a contributing player on the first three rounds and it’s pretty rare for a QB to be drafted outside of the first round to be actually good.

This is definitely a position I struggle with, because I, also, don’t like the idea of using a first round pick in this draft to try and draft the 4th (maybe 3rd?) best QB in this class.

[albionmoonlight]

Teddy Bridgewater?

[Honolulu_Blue]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

Teddy Bridgewater?

That’s sort of where my head is at, yes.

[thesloppy]

Seems like a good call. I have been a Bridgewater hater for pretty much his entire NFL career, but that was considering him as a starter...I do think he fits the Lions backup needs pretty well, as he & Goff have similar strengths and weahnesses.

[Solecismic]

If he could stay healthy, he'd be making a lot of money. Not much question he's capable of being an excellent backup. It just seems like every time he gets an opportunity, he's hurt.

[QuikSand]

https://twitter.com/pff_mike/status/...k0QxGYTxadQwhA

PFF lead draftnik with his own Lions mock…

[Honolulu_Blue]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

https://twitter.com/pff_mike/status/...k0QxGYTxadQwhA

PFF lead draftnik with his own Lions mock…

Woof. No me gusto.

[Bobble]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

https://twitter.com/pff_mike/status/...k0QxGYTxadQwhA

PFF lead draftnik with his own Lions mock…

Yuck.

[QuikSand]

Seeing DT Kancey to the Lions at 1.18 in a lot of mocks... but someone here persuaded me that he was the wrong style, they want/need beef rather than quicks.

[albionmoonlight]

It might be a bit high for Mazi Smith. But he fits the beef requirement and has some holy shit upside with his athleticism.

[albionmoonlight]

dola:

Latest Yahoo mock has them taking Carter at 6 and O'Cyrus Torrence at 18.

Definitely fits the build through the lines philosophy. But I'll admit to wanting a sexier prospect than a guard at 18.

[Honolulu_Blue]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

Seeing DT Kancey to the Lions at 1.18 in a lot of mocks... but someone here persuaded me that he was the wrong style, they want/need beef rather than quicks.

Probably me:

Originally Posted by Honolulu_Blue

- I love the idea of the Lions drafting DT Calijah Kancey as a player who can provide pressure up the middle. The only downside to him is that he's quite small, which could make the Lions even easier to run against. Given the current talent level at the LB position having undersized linemen could pose an issue.

[Honolulu_Blue]

Latest McShay two round mock has the Lions taking:

6. Tyree Wilson, DE
18. Bijan Robinson, RB
48. Jack Campbell, LB
55. Sam LaPorta, TE