Werewolf L Kate Beckinsale - day 7, deadline Thursday 10pm Eastern Time

[LoneStarGirl]

Originally Posted by KWhit

Huh?

Sorry Kwit... that is supposed to be POSTS AS OF 2PM CENTRAL,
not votes

[KWhit]

Here's the vote count I have:

Jonathan Ezarik - Dodgerchick, Lathum, cartman
Telle - JHandley, KWhit
path12 - Schmidty
tanglewood - LoneStarGirl
no lynch - path12, Telle, Jonathan Ezarik

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by KWhit

Agreed.

That is a favorite thing for me to do as well since I like to encourage participation as I think it helps flush out wolves.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

You realize there's a nearly equal likelihood that we lynch a useful villager role as a wolf?

I realize that but then this person could at least speak up to avoid being lynched.

[Lathum]

dola- I'm playing to lynch a wolf. Not to avoid lynching a valuable role.

[KWhit]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

None taken but what besides the Van Helsing thing do you think we don't know?

I think it's very possible that the Mad Scientist is a conversion role. That possibility was not included in your math (and if it is a conversion role, we have no idea how often he can convert someone - every 2 days, every 3 days).

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by path12

My favorite day 1 vote is for someone who hasn't checked in or voted.

Lately I've been waiting till later to vote. I know nothing really coming in to the day, so just try to see what happens during the day and then see who the votes are between and try to take my best guess.

I figure, I as a good person might as well manipulate the vote knowing nothing rather than a wolf try to manipulate the vote knowing what they do know.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by KWhit

Here's the vote count I have:

Jonathan Ezarik - Dodgerchick, Lathum, cartman
Telle - JHandley, KWhit
path12 - Schmidty
tanglewood - LoneStarGirl
no lynch - path12, Telle, Jonathan Ezarik

This illustrates my point.

LSG and Schmidty just randomly cast their votes despite there being alot of discussion about narrowing down candidates or no lynch.

Now why did they do that?

[KWhit]

Yes, and on day 1 I like to put an early vote out there to see what happens (hopefully keeping it to a tight 2-3 person race), but often will change it as I see what people are saying.

[KWhit]

Originally Posted by KWhit

Yes, and on day 1 I like to put an early vote out there to see what happens (hopefully keeping it to a tight 2-3 person race), but often will change it as I see what people are saying.

That was in response to AlanT.

[LoneStarGirl]

Originally Posted by Lathum

This illustrates my point.

LSG and Schmidty just randomly cast their votes despite there being alot of discussion about narrowing down candidates or no lynch.

Now why did they do that?

In my dozens of games playing have I EVER wanted a no lynch or tie? NEVER... so why do you think I would vote no lynch today?

And I am more than happy to vote for JE or Telle... but what does that accomplish? There is no reason anybody vote for them, it's a just because. At least I have a reason for Tanglewood... he has 1 vote on him. I, along with at least 4 other players it looks like, likes voting for the quiet players in the first days to flush out wolves.

Satisfied?

[Telle]

Originally Posted by Lathum

This illustrates my point.

LSG and Schmidty just randomly cast their votes despite there being alot of discussion about narrowing down candidates or no lynch.

Now why did they do that?

It's still early. I would think that the more the votes are spread around the more people there are to talk about the more discussion there is the more information is learned. Then the votes will hopefully tighten up closer to deadline.

[Alan T]

Well I don't just check in at the end and throw out a vote. I'm usually involved in the conversation throughout the day.. So it would be pretty difficult to confuse me with someone who hasn't voted or participated yet.

I just don't have anything to go on. So I could just throw out a random vote with the intention of later changing it, but that doesn't really accomplish much. I usually just try to see how people participate in the conversations and see if anything jumps out at me.

If in the end, I don't really have a gut feel for anyone I'll just vote for someone who doesn't seem to be participating. The worst thing for us is wolves. The next worst thing are villagers who don't contribute anything.

[path12]

Originally Posted by Alan T

Lately I've been waiting till later to vote. I know nothing really coming in to the day, so just try to see what happens during the day and then see who the votes are between and try to take my best guess.

I figure, I as a good person might as well manipulate the vote knowing nothing rather than a wolf try to manipulate the vote knowing what they do know.

Yeah, me too. I usually don't have that much to say day 1 anyway, and the early speculation normally just turns into bickering. I'd rather let the contenders filter out and make a choice at the end or even just toss the vote away elsewhere if I don't like how the contenders were chosen. I think this is probably my earliest day 1 vote ever, and it's likely to change.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by LoneStarGirl

In my dozens of games playing have I EVER wanted a no lynch or tie? NEVER... so why do you think I would vote no lynch today? ?

I wasn't suggesting you vote no lynch

And I am more than happy to vote for JE or Telle... but what does that accomplish?

It norrows down the candidates so we can see if there is any late movement, etc... A single throw away vote gives us no information down the road.

There is no reason anybody vote for them, it's a just because. At least I have a reason for Tanglewood... he has 1 vote on him. I, along with at least 4 other players it looks like, likes voting for the quiet players in the first days to flush out wolves.

Tanglewood is in a different time zone and that could be why he is quiet

Satisfied?

so far. I'm not trying to attack you, vote for who you like, the only ones with any information this point are the wolves so there is nothing to indicate your vote is incorrect. My point is just that the more spread out the day one votes are the more counter productive it is for us down the road and the people who are the catalysts for that look suspiscous IMO.

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by KWhit

I think it's very possible that the Mad Scientist is a conversion role. That possibility was not included in your math (and if it is a conversion role, we have no idea how often he can convert someone - every 2 days, every 3 days).

Actually conversion is irrelevant to my math. My math depends on how many wolves there are right now, not the possibility of future days.

I think we have several people in this game who can do the village favors. Letting them collect their evidence, and not lynching them before we can gain ANY information out of them (as once they publicly identify themselves they are as good as dead) seems bad. I'm much rather lynch one of our seers tomorrow when we could at least get 1 piece of information from them.

I am amenable to changing, but I think I'm going to go with voting no lynch today.

[Lathum]

I think we will be making a mistake with no lynch.

Tomorrow we will be sitting around saying " ok, and we are still on square one"
except we will be down one villager and still have no information to work with.

Then what? No lynch again?

At some point we will have to take action I think it should be sooner rather then later.

[KWhit]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

Actually conversion is irrelevant to my math. My math depends on how many wolves there are right now, not the possibility of future days.

The point I am making is that especially in a game where conversions may happen, villagers should want the game to progress as quickly as possible, giving less time for the wolves to pick us off or convert us.

[KWhit]

Originally Posted by Lathum

I think we will be making a mistake with no lynch.

Tomorrow we will be sitting around saying " ok, and we are still on square one"
except we will be down one villager and still have no information to work with.

Then what? No lynch again?

At some point we will have to take action I think it should be sooner rather then later.

Yes. I think no lynch benefits the wolves.

[Lathum]

Well I am out until after the deadline. I hope we find a good candidate to lynch otherwise it's day one all over again tomorrow.

[KWhit]

I dunno if I'll be around later or not, so I'm going to switch my vote to tangle since he's been pretty absent from the thread (just one post so far). And he already has a vote on him, so it will keep the voting close, which is important on day 1, I believe.

UNVOTE TELLE
VOTE TANGLEWOOD

[Lathum]

dola- LSG I wasn't attacking your vote, just using it to point out the difference between a productive day one and a counter productive. Please don't take offense.

[Lathum]

kwhit ruined my dola

[KWhit]

Jonathan Ezarik - Dodgerchick, Lathum, cartman
Telle - JHandley
path12 - Schmidty
tanglewood - LoneStarGirl, KWhit
no lynch - path12, Telle, Jonathan Ezarik, BarKeep49

[KWhit]

Out for a while. I'll try to make it back before lynch.

[Alan T]

It feels so sureal seeing Barkeep argue the opposite side of the no lynch thing after watching as a GM in sorcery hill

[Telle]

I'm taking off too. Will hopefully be back before the deadline.

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by Alan T

It feels so sureal seeing Barkeep argue the opposite side of the no lynch thing after watching as a GM in sorcery hill

I think there's math to it here and I try to play rationally.

[Lorena]

Originally Posted by LoneStarGirl

DC where is your man?

He hasn't posted? Someone send him a PM and remind him!!!!

[Barkeep49]

DOLA -- And in your game the opposite was true as roles which would reveal information were more likely to occur later in the game than earlier. I think the risk/reward of lynching today versus letting our roles do their work is just too high to justify a day 1 lynch. I view this game as an aberration in my overall stance and in fact only came around as I begun to crunch the numbers to try and support my lynch contention.

[cartman]

Hmmm, a cloud of suspicion now gathers over Ant...

[Lorena]

Originally Posted by Dodgerchick

He hasn't posted? Someone send him a PM and remind him!!!!

This post was making light of the time I got lynched because I IMed DaddyTorgo to remind him to vote.

It's one of those WW unwritten rule thingies that we're not allowed to remind players even with the best of intentions. And if you do, don't be stupid enough to post it like I did.

[path12]

Out for awhile. Back before deadline.

[JHandley]

I'll be the first to put Ant on the firing line. Tangle at least has an ocean on his side to account for inactivity.

UNVOTE TELLE
VOTE ANTMEISTER

[cartman]

I too will now be out, for about three hours. I'm driving up to Ft. Worth and should be there by 7pm Central.

[Schmidty]

Originally Posted by Lathum

I think we will be making a mistake with no lynch.

I agree, and THAT'S the reason I voted for the first person to call for a no vote - path12. It wasn't really a random vote per se. I even said in that post that it was subject to change. I just don't feel good about people that no vote on day 1.

[st.cronin]

Official GM count:

3 - Jonathan Ezarik - Dodgerchick (63), Lathum (79), cartman (96)
2 - tanglewood - LoneStarGirl (146), KWhit (171)
1 - path12 - Schmidty (128)
1 - Antmeister - JHandley (184)
3 - NO LYNCH - path12 (111), Telle (115), Jonathan Ezarik (133)

Not voted - Antmeister, DaddyTorgo, RendeR, Barkeep49, Alan T, Chief Rum, Gonzo, Neon Chaos, tanglewood


Keep in mind that with the voting rules, not voting counts as a vote for NO LYNCH, so right now there are technically 12 votes for NO LYNCH.

[Barkeep49]

I voted no lynch in 166

[DaddyTorgo]

busy day. Just got in. Lemme catch up

[DaddyTorgo]

as usual on D1 not much consensus.

As mentioned, it's curious to see Barkeep of all people arguing for no-lynch. BK...care to summarize what about crunching the math leads you to that conclusion?

[st.cronin]

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

I voted no lynch in 166

Originally Posted by Barkeep49

I am amenable to changing, but I think I'm going to go with voting no lynch today.

Per the rules, that's not exactly a valid vote.

[LoneStarGirl]

Originally Posted by Lathum

dola- LSG I wasn't attacking your vote, just using it to point out the difference between a productive day one and a counter productive. Please don't take offense.

I dont.

[Jonathan Ezarik]

Originally Posted by KWhit

Yes, you're right. However, a night has gone by without the villagers taking action, but letting the wolves kill one of us off and possibly converting one of us.

It just gives the wolves an extra day to do their thing - which is not good for us.

Someone please explain to me how lynching a villager is good for the rest of the villagers?

Let's assume that I get lynched today. I'm a good guy. So, after I get lynched, we are down one good guy. That leaves 18 players.

Let's assume there are two wolves in play right now, plus the Mad Scientist. Three baddies out of 18.

Let's assume they can make a kill tonight to bring that number down to 17.

Let's assume that there is the ability to convert a player (which I believe there is). And that conversion can occur tonight. So they convert someone tonight bringing their total to four. Four out of 17.

That means we lose three good guys in one day. Two dead and one converted. So, again, how does a no lynch help the wolves?

[Antmeister]

Originally Posted by cartman

Hmmm, a cloud of suspicion now gathers over Ant...

No clouds here, unless you are talking about the weather in that far off land called Austin, TX.

I have finally read some of this thread and my vote:
VOTE NO LYNCH

There is just no way for me to know who is who at this point and I don't want to randomly pick off someone.

[Jonathan Ezarik]

Originally Posted by Lathum

At some point you have to break some eggs to make an omlette.

When the vote is spread out day one you don't learn much but if it is down to 2-3 candidates you give yourself something to go on.

Unless the two candidates are both good (which is most likely to happen). What do we learn then? We only learn something if one of the candidates is a wolf.

[JHandley]

At what point, in any WW game has the identity of a wolf been absolutely known for sure? I'm a rookie here, but it seems to me that even with seers, it would take 3 days to get a definitive answer to that question.

Are you suggesting we wait 3 days before we start lynching?

[Jonathan Ezarik]

Originally Posted by Lathum

I realize that but then this person could at least speak up to avoid being lynched.

Um, so someone starts making noise about being voted on, and yet you still keep your vote there. Now, I'm not claiming any role because I don't have one, but if you really believe this you would have moved your vote off me.

Also, following this train of thought, if we happened to have a seer as one of the two candidates you would want them to out themselves on day one? Whose side are you on?

[DaddyTorgo]

VOTE NO LYNCH

[Jonathan Ezarik]

Originally Posted by JHandley

At what point, in any WW game has the identity of a wolf been absolutely known for sure? I'm a rookie here, but it seems to me that even with seers, it would take 3 days to get a definitive answer to that question.

Are you suggesting we wait 3 days before we start lynching?

Of course not. In some games I think a day one lynch is important. Actually, in most games a lynch is required. However, in this game there is no penalty in not lynching. And since we have absolutely no knowledge at all right now, we are stumbling around in the dark hoping we land a wolf and avoid an important role.

Tomorrow is a different story. That gives everyone that has night actions a chance to use them. If we happen to select a seer tomorrow for lynch, we can at least get some info from them before they go. And who knows, we might get lucky and catch a wolf in action tonight?

[Gonzo]

Originally Posted by KWhit

I dunno if I'll be around later or not, so I'm going to switch my vote to tangle since he's been pretty absent from the thread (just one post so far). And he already has a vote on him, so it will keep the voting close, which is important on day 1, I believe.

UNVOTE TELLE
VOTE TANGLEWOOD

I can't speak for what he did earlier during the day, but we've just come back from watching The Simpsons Movie after eating out. I'd rate the film a 7.5, by the way.

Incidentally, I'm voting No Lynch. I'm pretty sure that a wolf has never been lynched on day one, and at any rate, how much information does a lynched villager (or scanner, god forbid) with no voting records tell us?

Vote No Lynch