Werewolf LXII -- The BCS (Racer and Swaggs win)

[Alan T]

The worrysome part is you both popped in with challenges to each other out of the blue without any other conversation at the same time and then the comment "You beat me to it". It felt a bit discussed elsewhere.

[chesapeake]

It wasn't. I thought it amusing that we both did the same thing in the same 10 minute window.

FYI, right now, it is showing jeheinz72 and myself as the only 2 in the thread. We happened to be on at the same time near the deadline, both needing games. Honestly, there wasn't a big universe of people for me to challenge, anyway. 10 teams had games and 2 of the remaining 5 were from my conference and thus unchallengable. You're making a mountain out of a molehill.

[Lathum]

So at the risk of sounding cynical...

What is the point of voting for the polls at all if the really don't count until day 8? It just seems like alot of unneccesary clutter and confusion.

[molson]

VOTE NO SANCTION

SCHEDULE TEAM 40

(So does this give me a 40% chance to win or do I have that backwards?)

Public Poll:
1. Alan T
2. Chief Rum
3. Lathum
4. RendeR
5. Mr. Wednesday

If anyone wants to challenge me, I'll take them on - I mostly want to make sure I get a game in before the deadline.

[chesapeake]

That was my thought, too, Lathum. That is why I asked the questions I did in post 101. Maybe I misread the answer.

Molson, you should have a 60% chance of winning; and if you win, you get 40 PPs.

[Barkeep49]

Alan: I have a problem with encouraging my confrence's scout to throw a game, as we would have to do in order to have a scan, at this point.

[Racer]

I like to offer an open challenge to any team willing to play me with the exception of Notre Dame.

[Racer]

Didn't see Molson's post before.

Chalenge Molson

[Racer]

Dang typo.

Challenge Molson

[molson]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

Very cool, molson! I'm not sure if this is your first werewolf game, but if so, I encourage you to try another one after this to get a feel for the game!

This is the 4th time I've played, though I've stuck to very simple games before this one - (which is a tad overwhelming at the moment - put I'm sure I'll pick up the rules soon.)

[claphamsa]

vote no sanctions

Is there really a reason to do the public poll? it doesnt count for anything.
and isnt everyone just gonna vote for their own confernce mates, with themselves on top? It might mean something after week 1 or 2, but now its just random!

[Racer]

Vote no sanctions

I agree there is no reason to vote sanctions at this point when there hasn't even been any games played.

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by molson

This is the 4th time I've played, though I've stuck to very simple games before this one - (which is a tad overwhelming at the moment - put I'm sure I'll pick up the rules soon.)

Don't worry, I think it's a tad confusing for everyone. Complicated games tend to be that way the first couple of days, but I'm sure you'll figure things out as we get farther into it.

[Racer]

Originally Posted by Alan T

Ok based on the information we have, this appears to be the 4 conferences:

conf #1: Alan T, Molson, Chesapeake, Lathum
conf #2 St.Cronin, Claphamsa, Mr.Wednesday, Ntndeacon
conf #3 Barkeep, Swaggs, Chief Rum, Racer
conf #4 Render, Sndvls, Jeheinz72, Anxiety

There should be 1 scout in each conference (just one of the 4 is a wolf scout), so I suggest to try to get the most bang for our buck, the scouts talk to your conference and be willing to sacrifice your own BCS goals for your conference. Don't tell the rest of the game who are the scouts, only tell your conference that way no one else knows who is giving up games to do the scouting.

I then think conf #1 scout should scout someone in conf 2, Conf #2 scout should scout someone in conf #1. Scout in conf #3 should scout someone in conf #4 and Conf #4 scout shuld scan conf #3 to try to figure out who the detractors are.. I think the scouts should report back to their conference what the results end up being with someone in the conf announcing it to the rest of the teams. That leaves each conference with a bodyguard and a duke to protect the scout as needed if the need arises.

Any problems with that plan?

Couldn't we have agreed to that without having a mass reveal? I thought the only way to win this game (unless you're a wolf) was for your conference to get an at-large bid. Am I missing something here or do non wolves get a minor victory if they keep the wolves teams out of the at-large bid for a BCS bowl game?

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by Racer

Couldn't we have agreed to that without having a mass reveal? I thought the only way to win this game (unless you're a wolf) was for your conference to get an at-large bid. Am I missing something here or do non wolves get a minor victory if they keep the wolves teams out of the at-large bid for a BCS bowl game?

If the detractors (wolves) get their team in then, no one wins, including your conference.

If we keep the detractors out, then its an even footing for our four conferences to try our best to get in. Your entire conference doesn't have to win, you just need 2 strong teams. So the move that benefits the masses is to sacrifice your scout for the good of all to out the wolves, and then focus on making the other 2 non-detractor teams in your conference) as strong as possible.

[Alan T]

Dola, I'll make this comparison.. for those who played or read that game.. This is pretty much like the Survivor WW game that BK ran.. you had 4 teams plus wolves in there. Each team wanted to win, but so did the wolves.. when push came to shove, not dealing with the wolves early hurt alot of people.

In this game you can try to hide information to help out your conference, but in the end all you are doing is helping the wolves more than you. By having an open exchange of information only where it pertains to the wolves helps everyone (including yourself) have a better shot at winning the at large bid and the game instead of the wolves.

[ntndeacon]

Schedule Team 46

[RendeR]

I have a real problem with Alan's "tell only your conference" plan for the scouts.

There is a wolf in EACH conference. So by following that plan the wolves discover exactly who each scout is in each conference.

I'm not sure if that helps them any, since no-one dies in this game, but it could certainly allow them the foreknowledge to throw challenges at the scouts expecting them to throw the games in order to get scans, and in that way pushing their records higher and making them more viable BCS teams.

I do not like this plan.

[RendeR]

And unless I missed a post somewhere, Clam never accepted my challenge.

Can anyone else see one I'm missing?

[jeheinz72]

Originally Posted by Alan T

The worrysome part is you both popped in with challenges to each other out of the blue without any other conversation at the same time and then the comment "You beat me to it". It felt a bit discussed elsewhere.

Yeah nothing there man, sorry. I picked him since he was online so I could get a game in, since I don't think scheduling a CPU game makes much sense.

[claphamsa]

Originally Posted by RendeR

And unless I missed a post somewhere, Clam never accepted my challenge.

Can anyone else see one I'm missing?

accpet renders challenge... again

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by RendeR

I have a real problem with Alan's "tell only your conference" plan for the scouts.

There is a wolf in EACH conference. So by following that plan the wolves discover exactly who each scout is in each conference.

I'm not sure if that helps them any, since no-one dies in this game, but it could certainly allow them the foreknowledge to throw challenges at the scouts expecting them to throw the games in order to get scans, and in that way pushing their records higher and making them more viable BCS teams.

I do not like this plan.

I thought about that after the fact as well.. You're right about the fact it doesn't really do any good to just tell your conference because then once again the wolves only will know.. so we should just share it with everyone. Since the wolves already know, and I'm sure most of you already guessed I'm my conference's scout.. and no I do not plan on accepting any challenge from anyone in another conference looking to get an easy win.

I'm planning on scanning someone in conference #2 like I said (St.cronin, claphmasa, mr.W and ntndeacon) and will tell you if the person I scanned came back as wolf or not. I hope other scouts will do the same. Meanwhile I'll be doing everything else I can to help my conference win hopefully

[Alan T]

Just to get it out of the way..

Schedule Team 50

Vote No Sanctions

No reason to vote for sanctions yet until we can find out who the wolves are. Unless other scouts aren't cooperating in which case, we'll just have to vote blindly.

[RendeR]

Originally Posted by Alan T

I thought about that after the fact as well.. You're right about the fact it doesn't really do any good to just tell your conference because then once again the wolves only will know.. so we should just share it with everyone. Since the wolves already know, and I'm sure most of you already guessed I'm my conference's scout.. and no I do not plan on accepting any challenge from anyone in another conference looking to get an easy win.

I'm planning on scanning someone in conference #2 like I said (St.cronin, claphmasa, mr.W and ntndeacon) and will tell you if the person I scanned came back as wolf or not. I hope other scouts will do the same. Meanwhile I'll be doing everything else I can to help my conference win hopefully

Actually, I suppose it makes sense for the scouts to simply avoid all challenges complettely because that then allows them to throw their games without helping a wolf team out in any way.

Interesting.

This game makes my brain hurt.

#1 RendeR
#2 Alan T
#3 St. Cronin
#4 Chief Rum
#5 Molson



Vote No Sanctions

[RendeR]

Ok, so I think I'm done doing stuff for today right? I don't want to have to run back to this in the first hour I'm at work so I'll probably be out until after deadline.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by RendeR

Ok, so I think I'm done doing stuff for today right? I don't want to have to run back to this in the first hour I'm at work so I'll probably be out until after deadline.

You've done everything publicly that you can do. The things in private that you CAN do, but don't have to, are to send me votes for the private poll, or to PM me if you want to throw your game and do an action. I don't know if you've done that yet, but PM me if you want me to check for you.

[Lathum]

so I just want to double check, I don't HAVE to vote in a poll right now, correct?

[st.cronin]

I'm pretty overwhelmed by the strategy talk. For now, I'm just going to play to win. That seems like the simplest approach.

Poll
1. st.cronin
2. ntndeacon
3. claphamsa
4. mr. wednesday
5. passacaglia

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by Lathum

so I just want to double check, I don't HAVE to vote in a poll right now, correct?

No. You never have to vote in a poll, or for sanctions. I might have said that everyone must vote in the rules, but I didn't mean to. Voting is optional. If anyone would like to take back a public or private vote, just post in the thread, or PM me, respectively.

[RendeR]

Ok folks, I'm out till I get to work, gotta get the kids changed n dressed and feed them some lunch before getting ready to leave.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

I'm pretty overwhelmed by the strategy talk. For now, I'm just going to play to win. That seems like the simplest approach.

Poll
1. st.cronin
2. ntndeacon
3. claphamsa
4. mr. wednesday
5. passacaglia

Thanks for the vote, but I don't need you fools -- I'll get into the title game just by being #1 in the computer rankings. If you're just trying to throw away a vote, I think the rules say that you can vote for UP TO 5 teams, so you can just vote 4 teams, if you like -- or 3, or 2, or 1.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

No. You never have to vote in a poll, or for sanctions. I might have said that everyone must vote in the rules, but I didn't mean to. Voting is optional. If anyone would like to take back a public or private vote, just post in the thread, or PM me, respectively.

and the poll has no cumulative effect through the game, correct?

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by Lathum

and the poll has no cumulative effect through the game, correct?

Correct.

[Lathum]

then why are we voting everyday, why not just one poll on the last day?

not trying to be obtuse here, I just don't wanna miss something.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by Lathum

then why are we voting everyday, why not just one poll on the last day?

not trying to be obtuse here, I just don't wanna miss something.

Mainly because that's how they do it in college football. But also, there's information there -- even though the vote doesn't have any meaning, 4 of the 5 people who have voted put themselves #1, so they're still voting in their own interests. Also, I figure each poll can be looked at as a practice -- there are 5 groups with different agendas, and the more you understand about how people are voting, the better off you will be, I think.

[Swaggs]

Vote No Sanctions.

Vote:
Public Poll:
1. Swaggs
2. Chief Rum
3. Racer
4. Barkeep49
5. Passacaglia

[jeheinz72]

Vote No Sanctions

Public Poll
1. jeheinz72
2. SnDvls
3. RendeR
4. Anxiety
5. Claphamsa

[molson]

Originally Posted by Racer

Dang typo.

Challenge Molson

UNSCHEDULE TEAM 40

ACCEPT RACER

[Mr. Wednesday]

VOTE NO SANCTIONS

I think that it's in both my own and my conference's interest for me to be high up, so...
Public poll:
1. Mr. Wednesday
2. claphamsa
3. ntndeacon
4. st.cronin
5. Alan T

[Lathum]

VOTE NO SANCTIONS

[SnDvls]

Vote No Sanctions

Public Poll
1. SnDvls
2. Anxiety
3. RendeR
4. jeheinz72
5. St. Cronin

[ntndeacon]

Vote No sanctions
1. ntndeacon
2.st. cronin
3.Mr. Wednesday
4.claphamsa
5 Render

[Racer]

Originally Posted by Alan T

Ok based on the information we have, this appears to be the 4 conferences:

conf #1: Alan T, Molson, Chesapeake, Lathum
conf #2 St.Cronin, Claphamsa, Mr.Wednesday, Ntndeacon
conf #3 Barkeep, Swaggs, Chief Rum, Racer
conf #4 Render, Sndvls, Jeheinz72, Anxiety

There should be 1 scout in each conference (just one of the 4 is a wolf scout), so I suggest to try to get the most bang for our buck, the scouts talk to your conference and be willing to sacrifice your own BCS goals for your conference. Don't tell the rest of the game who are the scouts, only tell your conference that way no one else knows who is giving up games to do the scouting.

I then think conf #1 scout should scout someone in conf 2, Conf #2 scout should scout someone in conf #1. Scout in conf #3 should scout someone in conf #4 and Conf #4 scout shuld scan conf #3 to try to figure out who the detractors are.. I think the scouts should report back to their conference what the results end up being with someone in the conf announcing it to the rest of the teams. That leaves each conference with a bodyguard and a duke to protect the scout as needed if the need arises.

Any problems with that plan?

Okay, I've been thinking about this plan. We know that we have three good scouts and one bad scout. Each good scout then has a 4 and 15 chance of hitting a wolf. So if we go with this plan then we have the following breakdown in possible number of wolves we could catch:

39.44% chance of catching 0 wolves
43.02% chance of catching 1 wolf
15.64% chance of catching 2 wolves
1.90% chance of catching 3 wolves.

We also won't know for sure who is telling the truth. However, if we have all scouts scout teams in the same conference, then we basically have a 100% chance of catching a wolf unless the wolf scout decides to lie for his fellow wolf in which case we'd be able to find out about two wolves on the second day since a conference cannot have zero wolves. Does that make sense?

[Racer]

Also, the scouts don't need to reveal themselves either. We would just have to decide which conference to target and then assign the scout representative from each conference to scout a specific team in that conference.

[Racer]

Before I forget,

Public Poll
1. Racer
2. Swaggs
3. Chief Rum
4. Barkeep49
5. Molson

[Lathum]

Public Poll

Lathum
AlanT
Molson
Chesapeak
Barkeep

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by Racer

Okay, I've been thinking about this plan. We know that we have three good scouts and one bad scout. Each good scout then has a 4 and 15 chance of hitting a wolf. So if we go with this plan then we have the following breakdown in possible number of wolves we could catch:

39.44% chance of catching 0 wolves
43.02% chance of catching 1 wolf
15.64% chance of catching 2 wolves
1.90% chance of catching 3 wolves.

We also won't know for sure who is telling the truth. However, if we have all scouts scout teams in the same conference, then we basically have a 100% chance of catching a wolf unless the wolf scout decides to lie for his fellow wolf in which case we'd be able to find out about two wolves on the second day since a conference cannot have zero wolves. Does that make sense?

Doesnt work, a scout can't scout his own conference. Also now with only 20 min left, would suck to change up the plan in hopes that the other scouts actually are going to try to work together to find the wolves. With this plan, within 3 days scouts would have found the wolves in all conference before conference play begins and our conference info has to be sent in to pass

[Lathum]

lol


I didn't even realize we had such an early deadline

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by Lathum

lol


I didn't even realize we had such an early deadline

Yep. Just when you think you've got the rules figured out...BAM! I hit you with the early deadline!

[Passacaglia]

The preseason polls have been released!!


PUBLIC POLL

1. Chief Rum
2. ntndeacon
2. St. Cronin's University Blue Man Group (st.cronin)
4. Boone County Vocational Technical Institute (Anxiety)
4. Buffalo State Bengals (Render)


PRIVATE POLL

1. U of BK Drones (Barkeep49)
2. Chief Rum
3. Hoosier State Huskers (Racer)
4. Buffalo State Bengals (RendeR)
5. SnDvls