WW XCV: Land of the Role Reveals GAME OVER

[dubb93]

Originally Posted by EagleFan

You are the only one to keep coming back with the "I really am" claim. If that is true than lets see this through to the end.

And I already told you, I'm the brutal wolf.

[EagleFan]

Originally Posted by Tyrith

The question is, who are we engineering a tie with?

I'll stick my neck out. dubb vote me, real duke vote dubb.

In the mean time believe me as brutal and we'll have the wolves on the run early.

[Racer]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

I'm fine with that, but I would rather he check on me as a second seer. If I'm a villager and he is someone that he wants to have the second seer role then how is he supposed to validate me in the thread without tipping his hand?

I'm giving the seer a good playbook to execute for early in the game if I'm elected. He scans me, then he knows that he can trust my scans.

The risk in scanning me would be if I'm the nightkill. Then he isn't getting either a wolf or someone who extends the COT. But I'll leave that decision up to the seer (assuming I'm not the actual seer and creating a big stir in the thread to mask my true role, that is).

Heck, since I'm under the impression that I'll have a pretty short lifetime in the role I'll just publish my scans every morning for as long as I'm left alone at night. If I'm not finding wolves fast enough, then you have the choice to just lynch me because you think I pulled some kind of daring wolf move.

Honestly, help me understand where the upside is for me to do this as a wolf. I think it is potentially huge +EV for the village, which is why I'm volunteering for something that probably knocks me out of the game earlier than normal.

The short life span is one of the main reasons why I think it would be better to believe someone as the cultist on the day one (since that should get us one wolf) then believing someone as a seer.

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by Tyrith

I think your plan is sound. I just don't trust you to be the executor of the plan, because you're too good at weird plans like this. It just seems to me there are a lot of ways we get sucked into one of those hoops mind games, and those are just losing propositions.

I think I've outlined the only risk here - that I'm the cunning wolf. There is no way that I would make this move with any other wolf role.

If you are that worried about me doing this as the cunning wolf then you definitely should not believe me.

If not me, then who? I'm willing to back the plan with someone else but I'm not looking to force it on someone when they are putting themselves very much on the firing line for N1 or N2 kill.

[dubb93]

Originally Posted by PurdueBrad

Ahhh, then I think I'm changing my mind on this. I distrust Hoops as much as any of you but if he becomes a second seer, we keep the role with someone else too, AND he is a villager, we're in good shape. If he's a wolf, we'll lynch him if he provides bad info. Where is the problem that I'm missing?

And assuming we get some solid BG protection headed his way Hoops can reveal daily as long as he is alive. At some point if his info isn't BS the wolves will be forced to kill him and we will have a bunch of cleared villagers.

[EagleFan]

Originally Posted by dubb93

And I already told you, I'm the brutal wolf.

In that case you can brutal me when you lose the tie.

[PurdueBrad]

I'm tempted to believe Hoops but I'm going to give it thought (because seriously, how often has that turned out well for me?). I'm going to play the Show and will come up with something.

[hoopsguy]

The guy that I would have trusted 100% with the Cultist claim - Abe Sargent - doesn't appear to be playing this game. He is about the only player where I would have absolutely trusted him to do the right thing (from my perspective = not backstab with it, even if the backstab is more fun) with it as a starting villager.

[Tyrith]

Originally Posted by PurdueBrad

Ahhh, then I think I'm changing my mind on this. I distrust Hoops as much as any of you but if he becomes a second seer, we keep the role with someone else too, AND he is a villager, we're in good shape. If he's a wolf, we'll lynch him if he provides bad info. Where is the problem that I'm missing?

Him providing bad info is going to involve us spending a day lynching a villager, probably throw us way off our game, and then we'd have to lynch him. I doubt he's making a wolf play, but he could be, so I'd rather thrust the power on someone than take the chance of him engineering himself a way to completely foul us up.

[Tyrith]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

I think I've outlined the only risk here - that I'm the cunning wolf. There is no way that I would make this move with any other wolf role.

If you are that worried about me doing this as the cunning wolf then you definitely should not believe me.

If not me, then who? I'm willing to back the plan with someone else but I'm not looking to force it on someone when they are putting themselves very much on the firing line for N1 or N2 kill.

I really don't care. Just as long as we're not following who you suggest us to. It's not that I don't trust you, but this way just seems safer. And yeah, if you're cunning wolf we'd auto-lose this game something fierce, I think, but that seems quite likely to happen under any cunning wolf circumstance.

But I do think even as a regular wolf you'd get us to waste a believe, a seer scan, and a lynch fixing this. Plus if it's you it exposes us to a variety of wolf plays where they scan you, claim you're a wolf, and we get into a giant mess anyway. Granted, that latter scenario is possible with anyone, but it seems more magnified with you considering how you wind up being a focal point in any game where you live for more than two days. I would prefer to decentralize.

[lerriuqs]

Originally Posted by Tyrith

Him providing bad info is going to involve us spending a day lynching a villager, probably throw us way off our game, and then we'd have to lynch him. I doubt he's making a wolf play, but he could be, so I'd rather thrust the power on someone than take the chance of him engineering himself a way to completely foul us up.

It's Werewolves - the concern of a wolf play is always here. So you go with the one where the least amount of damage can be done early. I think that's the cultist - you get a guaranteed wolf (or betrayed) - the same can't be said of the seer or any other role (maybe the brutal).

[hoopsguy]

Tyrith, I'll continue to argue for the logic of the play on Day 1 even if it isn't me that is taking on the role. But I think I am the best choice for the role.

Play this out for a minute - I've proposed an idea that is not all that exciting for the wolves. They don't want a second seer out there right away - they would like that to be delayed as much as possible. But Pandora is out of the box at this point, from their perspective. So what do they want to do about it from here?

- Would they now try to get me elected in the role and just kill me early?

- Try to get one of their own into the role (remember, they have numbers to back a candidate) as a defensive posture?

- Try to squelch the idea entirely?

I'm honestly not sure, but I'm going to be really mad if we do end up giving the role to a wolf because we were worried about me making some kind of uber-move on Day 1. Every once in awhile (like last game) I'm actually a villager trying to optimize the advantages found in the game.

[lerriuqs]

Originally Posted by lerriuqs

It's Werewolves - the concern of a wolf play is always here. So you go with the one where the least amount of damage can be done early. I think that's the cultist - you get a guaranteed wolf (or betrayed) - the same can't be said of the seer or any other role (maybe the brutal).

And actually it's pretty much a guaranteed wolf regardless. You get 1 from the cultist or you get a converted cultist. For the record - I have no intention of switching sides. I plan on being a villager to the end of the game.

[Tyrith]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Tyrith, I'll continue to argue for the logic of the play on Day 1 even if it isn't me that is taking on the role. But I think I am the best choice for the role.

Play this out for a minute - I've proposed an idea that is not all that exciting for the wolves. They don't want a second seer out there right away - they would like that to be delayed as much as possible. But Pandora is out of the box at this point, from their perspective. So what do they want to do about it from here?

- Would they now try to get me elected in the role and just kill me early?

- Try to get one of their own into the role (remember, they have numbers to back a candidate) as a defensive posture?

- Try to squelch the idea entirely?

I'm honestly not sure, but I'm going to be really mad if we do end up giving the role to a wolf because we were worried about me making some kind of uber-move on Day 1. Every once in awhile (like last game) I'm actually a villager trying to optimize the advantages found in the game.

Yes, but once in a while you're also a wolf trying to screw us. Not that I am saying I believe this is particularly one of those instances, but they have happened historically.

Personally, I feel like the idea was going to come up eventually today, even if it wasn't you. It's just inherent in the game rules.

I just see making you the second seer making this another one of those games where it becomes all about you until you're dead. They happen, and they scare me because if you are bad, you have demonstrated a remarkable ability to stay alive and cause trouble in the process. It seems like it would be a better village insurance policy to staple the role to someone who is a crappier wolf. However, I am not going to be insanely obstinate about this.

[Racer]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Tyrith, I'll continue to argue for the logic of the play on Day 1 even if it isn't me that is taking on the role. But I think I am the best choice for the role.

Play this out for a minute - I've proposed an idea that is not all that exciting for the wolves. They don't want a second seer out there right away - they would like that to be delayed as much as possible. But Pandora is out of the box at this point, from their perspective. So what do they want to do about it from here?

- Would they now try to get me elected in the role and just kill me early?

- Try to get one of their own into the role (remember, they have numbers to back a candidate) as a defensive posture?

- Try to squelch the idea entirely?

I'm honestly not sure, but I'm going to be really mad if we do end up giving the role to a wolf because we were worried about me making some kind of uber-move on Day 1. Every once in awhile (like last game) I'm actually a villager trying to optimize the advantages found in the game.

It would not surprise me at all if a wolf was saying that we should pick someone to believe as the seer since if they don't suggest it first, some villager surely will at some point on day one.

I really think we should believe someone as a cultist though. Because like I said, it should get us a wolf on day two. We still shouldn't trust the believed cultist, but a getting a wolf is still getting a wolf.

There's no self check with a believed seer unless they die so we wouldn't know if their information was valuable until they died. Plus, we may not get a wolf this way.

[Tyrith]

Originally Posted by Racer

It would not surprise me at all if a wolf was saying that we should pick someone to believe as the seer since if they don't suggest it first, some villager surely will at some point on day one.

I really think we should believe someone as a cultist though. Because like I said, it should get us a wolf on day two. We still shouldn't trust the believed cultist, but a getting a wolf is still getting a wolf.

There's no self check with a believed seer unless they die so we wouldn't know if their information was valuable until they died. Plus, we may not get a wolf this way.

Personally, knowing most of this crowd, I think believing someone as a cultist is asking for them to lie to us and spending two days running down people we shouldn't have to be lynching. I just don't think it's worth the risk of us getting betrayed to get that wolf unless we have a bad couple of days. We could potentially be handing the wolves a crony on a silver platter.

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Barkeep, if I claim to be the seer, and I'm believed, then die a day later the seer role is available for someone else to claim again and continues to be available until the "real" seer dies, right?

This is correct.

[Lathum]

Catching up. I've had a crazy busy day flying from Boston to Seattle, then having to get my dog and cat and try to get settled.

I will likely be quiet early on. Most of the long time players will tell you games like this take me a few days to wrap my brain around.

A couple of early thoughts.

This whole cultist=wolf thing seems to easy, without having a grasp of the rules, it seems BK would have something in place to prevent that from being so simple.

Hoops worries me. It seems he could be making this play as the cunning, become seer and buy himself a few days and some false scans that would cause us all kinds of problem.

I really don't like EF's game. Comes out early and claims wolf, then goes after me, then swaps to Dubb, it just seems like he is creating alot of confusion for confusions sake. He is also seemingly trying to set up some Duke/ tie showdown which seems to me would burn our Duke on day 1.

[Lathum]

I guess I was the threadkiller

[hoopsguy]

Back now - if people really think that I'm the cunning wolf making this move then you should just vote me out on Day 1. But someone should get the seer on Day 1. BK's confirmation of my question (see post #167) should make it crystal clear.

You do not have the downside with seer that you potentially introduce with cultist. That is pretty open-and-shut to me, but if others want to go in that direction then I would suggest being very careful with who you elect.

If someone else wants to be "secondary seer" then by all means step up and volunteer. Just realize, like I did when I posted it, that you are potentially walking into a very short game. High risk (wolf target), high reward (two seers, provide interference for real seer).

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by Lathum

I really don't like EF's game. Comes out early and claims wolf, then goes after me, then swaps to Dubb, it just seems like he is creating alot of confusion for confusions sake. He is also seemingly trying to set up some Duke/ tie showdown which seems to me would burn our Duke on day 1.

No, it does not burn the duke. The duke only starts off as the tie-breaker. If he is believed then he has the ability to move a lynch.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

No, it does not burn the duke. The duke only starts off as the tie-breaker. If he is believed then he has the ability to move a lynch.

yeah, but then the duke breaks the tie and buys it night 1?

[hoopsguy]

Well, any of the people on the one side of the tie could be the duke.

Barkeep49, is the duke revealed as the 'tie-breaking' vote?

Also, I'm not sure that getting the duke on N1 is optimal, especially if there are two seers to worry about (one of which they know). Even in a conventional game I think it is of questionable value to target the duke for a night kill on N1.

[Lathum]

shrug


I still don't like his play

[Tyrith]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Back now - if people really think that I'm the cunning wolf making this move then you should just vote me out on Day 1. But someone should get the seer on Day 1. BK's confirmation of my question (see post #167) should make it crystal clear.

You do not have the downside with seer that you potentially introduce with cultist. That is pretty open-and-shut to me, but if others want to go in that direction then I would suggest being very careful with who you elect.

If someone else wants to be "secondary seer" then by all means step up and volunteer. Just realize, like I did when I posted it, that you are potentially walking into a very short game. High risk (wolf target), high reward (two seers, provide interference for real seer).

I mean, I would do it, but it seems super dodgy for me to volunteer after asking you not to. So I'm thinking we should go a different route. And I would be okay with you doing it, if no one else wants to.

[saldana]

checking in, still deciding what to make of the whole believing people thing...i was a bit late to the signups (wasnt really planning on playing but at the time, BK needed people) so i need to go back and get a firm handle on the rules.

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Barkeep49, is the duke revealed as the 'tie-breaking' vote?

The Duke knows the answer to this question. Perhaps after a tie you will know the answer as well

[hoopsguy]

Racer, I'm pretty sure you understand the Cultist risk, right? If not, here is a long post on the topic.

Very possible scenario:
1.) We believe a cultist reveal
2.) That person learns about a wolf
3.) That person decides it would be fun to play for the wolf team instead
4.) That person reveals a villager, not a wolf
5.) We lynch a villager and then argue about when to get around to lynching the cultist

Even if the wolves decide to NK the cultist and minimize the risk, then we've just given up a villager role for the next lynch. Game moves forward with the same steps as listed above.

The only scenario where it is good for the village is if we elect a cultist who actually gives us a wolf. But even in that scenario the wolves have to cooperate and not turn him the night before - this is not a game with a 24 hour deadline where we would have a small chance of avoiding this action.

Now, if you want to make it more complicated and bring in the bodyguard to stay on the cultist then he may stay alive but then you still have to trust the person who volunteered to have started with the idea of being a good villager and not changing their mind by the following day.

I still think the seer is a better play because you run no risk of the person elected deciding to screw the village unless they already had a role that was going to screw the village. You also put pressure massive pressure on the wolves because two seers will create a COT wicked-quick if left to their own devices.

And if the wolves kill the person who reveals as the seer, then just elect a new one the next day to keep the heat on them. Sure they will try to infiltrate the process at some point, but at that point it is the village that is dictating terms to the wolves. That does not happen all that often in WW.

[hoopsguy]

OK, out for the night - not sure how much time I'll have tomorrow to continue making the "second seer/D1" case but I'm pretty confident that it is optimal play for the village on D1 under these rules if you are not stressed out about playing for 5+ days.

If there are other people who should take on the mantle, put them out there.

I think it is important to build some kind of consensus on what role we want to elect and what person (or two candidates, potentially) should be in the running.

[Racer]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Racer, I'm pretty sure you understand the Cultist risk, right? If not, here is a long post on the topic.

Very possible scenario:
1.) We believe a cultist reveal
2.) That person learns about a wolf
3.) That person decides it would be fun to play for the wolf team instead
4.) That person reveals a villager, not a wolf
5.) We lynch a villager and then argue about when to get around to lynching the cultist

Even if the wolves decide to NK the cultist and minimize the risk, then we've just given up a villager role for the next lynch. Game moves forward with the same steps as listed above.

The only scenario where it is good for the village is if we elect a cultist who actually gives us a wolf. But even in that scenario the wolves have to cooperate and not turn him the night before - this is not a game with a 24 hour deadline where we would have a small chance of avoiding this action.

Now, if you want to make it more complicated and bring in the bodyguard to stay on the cultist then he may stay alive but then you still have to trust the person who volunteered to have started with the idea of being a good villager and not changing their mind by the following day.

I still think the seer is a better play because you run no risk of the person elected deciding to screw the village unless they already had a role that was going to screw the village. You also put pressure massive pressure on the wolves because two seers will create a COT wicked-quick if left to their own devices.

And if the wolves kill the person who reveals as the seer, then just elect a new one the next day to keep the heat on them. Sure they will try to infiltrate the process at some point, but at that point it is the village that is dictating terms to the wolves. That does not happen all that often in WW.

The Bodyguard protecting the believed cultist wouldn't really be hard so the only worry would be the person deciding it would be fun to be flip. You are the 2nd veteran to say that's a real concern so if the consensus is to have a believed seer, I'm fine with that. I do think we need to believe someone tomorrow and there should be at least two people vowing for the same role (so it's sort of like a vote).

[Tyrith]

Originally Posted by Racer

The Bodyguard protecting the believed cultist wouldn't really be hard so the only worry would be the person deciding it would be fun to be flip. You are the 2nd veteran to say that's a real concern so if the consensus is to have a believed seer, I'm fine with that. I do think we need to believe someone tomorrow and there should be at least two people vowing for the same role (so it's sort of like a vote).

At this point I'm pretty sure if we believe a random person cultist they are going to flip just to punish us for being silly enough to give them that chance.

[lerriuqs]

Originally Posted by Tyrith

At this point I'm pretty sure if we believe a random person cultist they are going to flip just to punish us for being silly enough to give them that chance.

Nothing against you personally, but I find it funny that people are so slow to dole out any trust with a sounder (and much smaller reaching proposal) than believing a seer. If we believe a wolf seer - they can string things along for a long time (at least until the real seer scans them or is killed). And they don't have to reveal a single wolf. Believing a cultist would screw up two days - actually only one since you'd know a wolf and could save him to be lynched later. The implications to the game are way smaller than believing the wrong seer IMO.

And I have no intentions of flipping if I'm believed as the cultist - I intend to out a wolf as soon as I find out their name.

[DaddyTorgo]

checking in

[DaddyTorgo]

from the first time i saw the rules of this game i thought having multiple people reveal as the seer was an optimal play for us villagers, so i'm inclined to go with hoops on this one

[EagleFan]

The way I see it:

Believe Seer: mid to high risk, very small chance of high reward (cunning scan)
If good, should make it one night and gains us one scan
If bad it puts us farther behind due to deception

Believe BG: low risk, high reward
If good we gain another BG
If bad we lose the least I would believe

Believe Duke: very high risk
If good we gain the typical duke role which is not a slam dunk good thing
If bad we have given the wolves a chance to save one of their own with little risk as the believed duke can claim the usual "I went with a hunch" excuse

Believe Maniac: high risk
If good we gain someone with a night kill option which is hit or miss
If bad we give the wolves a second night kill with the same out as the duke

Believe Cultist: mid to high risk with possible high reward
If good and stays good we gain the name of a wolf
If good but swings bad we gain confusion
If bad we gain confusion

Believe Tough Villager: mid to high risk, little reward
If good helps avoid a lynch
If bad helps avoid a lynch

Believe Brutal Wolf: high risk, high reward
If good gives us a brutal of our own
If bad gives the wolves a roled kill

Believe Vengeful Wolf: low risk, low reward
If good it would make one player immune from night kills as the attacker would die which also means little chance of an attack on that person
If bad it would really only hurt if the player was duked to or night killed by other role but little chance of that as it wuld be a known believed role.

Believed Tough Wolf: mid to high risk, little reward
See Tough Villager breakdown (basically similar)

[EagleFan]

It would make the most sense to start out by believing a bodyguard.

It would also make the most sense that a wolf would try to come out and claim a role like duke early. Hmmm, if only someone has tried that....

[Tyrith]

Originally Posted by lerriuqs

Nothing against you personally, but I find it funny that people are so slow to dole out any trust with a sounder (and much smaller reaching proposal) than believing a seer. If we believe a wolf seer - they can string things along for a long time (at least until the real seer scans them or is killed). And they don't have to reveal a single wolf. Believing a cultist would screw up two days - actually only one since you'd know a wolf and could save him to be lynched later. The implications to the game are way smaller than believing the wrong seer IMO.

And I have no intentions of flipping if I'm believed as the cultist - I intend to out a wolf as soon as I find out their name.

Well, quite frankly, I don't think we can take your word on whether you intend to sell us out :P And I do agree with hoops logic about this. There's a 3/4 chance we get a second seer and blow the wolves out, and a 1/4 chance that we're shooting ourselves in the foot.

I haven't played with you, or read enough of your posts in previous games to know, but my rough estimate is that in the cultist sort of situation, especially early in a game, there's something like a 50-70 percent chance the person is going to pick evil. And if you do pick evil, the amount of damage one name is going to do less than several is significant, but not mind blowing - one bad name is two days, multiple bad names might be two days, it might be three if we read it wrong.

Without doing some hoops like poker math, it just doesn't seem like going along with you is the EV play right now. I remain open to going through with your plan later. A random wolf might do us more good further down the road.

[Tyrith]

Originally Posted by EagleFan

It would make the most sense to start out by believing a bodyguard.

It would also make the most sense that a wolf would try to come out and claim a role like duke early. Hmmm, if only someone has tried that....

This is an assertion without an argument. That makes it seem fairly paranoid.

[EagleFan]

Originally Posted by Tyrith

This is an assertion without an argument. That makes it seem fairly paranoid.

How? I have laid everything out. Where does the "without an argument" part come in?

[EagleFan]

Originally Posted by Tyrith

This is an assertion without an argument. That makes it seem fairly paranoid.

Gotta love hit and run "analysis"...

[Tyrith]

Originally Posted by EagleFan

I would be a little cautious about believing a duke at the moment. It would be a good wolf play to try to get believed as the duke. Sit on the power as a member of the CoT, if scanned hope that you get revealed by the seer and now you know the seer plus you can duke away from a lynch the first attempt.

Well, to the extent this is your logic, I disagree. Believing duke isn't immediately going to get anyone into a CoT in this particular game. If it does eventually, it's because there's no one else revealing duke either...which probably means he's the duke. And no one is in a rush to give him his duking power.

You seem thoroughly convinced he's not the real duke for some reason I can't determine. Unless you are the real duke, in which case you have taken a very roundabout way of showing that.

[Tyrith]

Originally Posted by EagleFan

Gotta love hit and run "analysis"...

Congratulations, you have managed to just tick me off.

[Tyrith]

BTW, the concept of a hit and run at nearly midnight seems quite hilarious to me. Some of us occasionally sleep, you know.

[lerriuqs]

Originally Posted by Tyrith

Well, quite frankly, I don't think we can take your word on whether you intend to sell us out :P And I do agree with hoops logic about this. There's a 3/4 chance we get a second seer and blow the wolves out, and a 1/4 chance that we're shooting ourselves in the foot.

I haven't played with you, or read enough of your posts in previous games to know, but my rough estimate is that in the cultist sort of situation, especially early in a game, there's something like a 50-70 percent chance the person is going to pick evil. And if you do pick evil, the amount of damage one name is going to do less than several is significant, but not mind blowing - one bad name is two days, multiple bad names might be two days, it might be three if we read it wrong.

Without doing some hoops like poker math, it just doesn't seem like going along with you is the EV play right now. I remain open to going through with your plan later. A random wolf might do us more good further down the road.

Honestly, I think a 25% chance of believing a wolf into the seer role is way too high. The cultist isn't going to cause nearly as much damage and is far easier to determine if it goes sideways. As stated, all you need is for the Cunning to be the one believed and you're basically screwed. With the cultist - he's only useful for one day and you've always got the opportunity to lynch him since you know he's there.

[EagleFan]

Originally Posted by Tyrith

Well, to the extent this is your logic, I disagree. Believing duke isn't immediately going to get anyone into a CoT in this particular game. If it does eventually, it's because there's no one else revealing duke either...which probably means he's the duke. And no one is in a rush to give him his duking power.

You seem thoroughly convinced he's not the real duke for some reason I can't determine. Unless you are the real duke, in which case you have taken a very roundabout way of showing that.

I am not claiming anything.

Read my post outlining why I believe we should or shouldn't believe every given role. Instead of quoting a post which is ONE post later where I give my belief based on that previous post and say that I am not giving any argument for what I say.

Giving a wolf the duke role gives them an out for saving a wolf in a lynch and allows them to claim "oops, my bad" when a bad duking occurs. It makes EVERY bit of sense that the first role a wolf would try to get would be that one. It is not a bold obvious move like going after the brutal or maniac and it offers them plenty reward.

[EagleFan]

I'll say it one last time before getting some sleep.

BG is the way to go. It is very low risk and very high reward. Wih a voting history of day one we may have a little more to go on with who to trust to believe as seer day two and have a potential network of protection in place with real and believed BG.

I agree that staying away from cultist for now may be a good idea.

[Danny]

Just got back in town from a long drive. I will get caught up at some point.

[Tyrith]

Originally Posted by lerriuqs

Honestly, I think a 25% chance of believing a wolf into the seer role is way too high. The cultist isn't going to cause nearly as much damage and is far easier to determine if it goes sideways. As stated, all you need is for the Cunning to be the one believed and you're basically screwed. With the cultist - he's only useful for one day and you've always got the opportunity to lynch him since you know he's there.

Cunning is 1/17 - about 6%. Realistically, a 6% chance of dumping the game on Day 1 isn't bad considering the upside. Heck, it's the same chance we have (in a vacuum) of lynching the real seer on Day 1 anyway, and that rarely stops us from doing that.

And we can always just lynch our second seer if they live too long. I have advocated the lynch the seer to prove the data strategy from time to time in the past.

[EagleFan]

Originally Posted by Tyrith

BTW, the concept of a hit and run at nearly midnight seems quite hilarious to me. Some of us occasionally sleep, you know.

Funny how you were in and out of the thread several times after I asked you a question about your post. One which you still haven't freaking answered; yet you respond to my other post within a minute.

[Tyrith]

Originally Posted by EagleFan

I am not claiming anything.

Read my post outlining why I believe we should or shouldn't believe every given role. Instead of quoting a post which is ONE post later where I give my belief based on that previous post and say that I am not giving any argument for what I say.

Giving a wolf the duke role gives them an out for saving a wolf in a lynch and allows them to claim "oops, my bad" when a bad duking occurs. It makes EVERY bit of sense that the first role a wolf would try to get would be that one. It is not a bold obvious move like going after the brutal or maniac and it offers them plenty reward.

Is anyone at all advocating giving dubb the full duke power today, besides dubb himself? And, alternatively, why wouldn't the first wolf try to foul our obvious seer play, like hoops has? Plus "oops, my bad" isn't exactly a foolproof strategy for getting past us.