Beware the Fat Man in Red (Game Over: Village Wins!)

[EagleFan]

You don't know what to think as daybreak comes and you realize that everyone is still among you, everyone except for poor Simbo that is.

[EagleFan]

Day Two Has Begun!!!!

HO HO HO!!!!!!

[Abe Sargent]

...whether or not GE is who he says he is? Well, i guess we'll find out soon enough.


Still, teh right D1 ply iwth a reveal for seer is to move off that person

[Abe Sargent]

Originally Posted by EagleFan

You don't know what to think as daybreak comes and you realize that everyone is still among you, everyone except for poor Simbo that is.

No death?


Bodyguard block?

[EagleFan]

Day two results may be late. That will be the first night of the Go Live so I may be tied up if there are any major issues going on but will do my best to get it done as close to time as possible.

[Abe Sargent]

So with no night one kill, because Simbo was lynched, that looks like a successful BG block, which indicates to me that GE is likely the seer, no lie. The wolves went after him, and they BG blocked.

[DaddyTorgo]

Disagree on that interpertation Abe. At least the GE/BG thing.

The only people on after GE's reveal were the people I noted in the thread. So IF you want to go by your interpertation then you're saying that of those people who were on, there was 1 wolf, 1 BG, and 1 seer among the 4 people on. I'd find that to be unusual.

I think it's maybe more likely that we lucked into a random BG-block elsewhere.

[Abe Sargent]

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

Disagree on that interpertation Abe. At least the GE/BG thing.

The only people on after GE's reveal were the people I noted in the thread. So IF you want to go by your interpertation then you're saying that of those people who were on, there was 1 wolf, 1 BG, and 1 seer among the 4 people on. I'd find that to be unusual.

I think it's maybe more likely that we lucked into a random BG-block elsewhere.

yeah, that's a fair point. I forgot about the quick turnaround for the night. I was using normal WW analysis - thanks.

[Abe Sargent]

Well, my first vote for today is easy



vote mauboy

[britrock88]

Wow. I need to remember that I live in Central Time now.

[Autumn]

I suppose you're right DT. I was about to say the same thing as Abe. But I don't like to place too much emphasis on who was seen in thread. But it definitely didn't seem like a lot of people were here.

However, not losing the seer, and getting a block day one is pretty good results. In this small a game even one result is going to be helpful.

[GoldenEagle]

I scanned Zinto. He is good.

[britrock88]

Do we know how the Skeptic shows up on a scan?

[GoldenEagle]

Reading the rules, is it possible he BG actually guarded the person who was supposed to be making the kill?

[Autumn]

I thought that only worked with Santa, and then he'd be dead? The BG that is.

[britrock88]

GE's right if an Elf attempted the kill, and Autumn's right if Santa attempted the kill. So maybe the BG did pick an (the?) Elf.

[britrock88]

My best Narc impression:

time	post	voter	votee	#
10:13	47	Abe	Autumn	1
10:29	49	Autumn	DT	1
10:33	50	JAG	GE	1
15:20	71	CF	Simbo	1
16:43	78	Zinto	Autumn	2
16:49	81	Simbo	GE	2
18:25	84	CR	DT	2
19:41	98	brit	GE	3
19:52	102	DT	Simbo	2
21:42	118	GE	DT	3
21:45	119	DT	xSimbo	1
			GE	4
21:50	122	GE	xDT	2
			Simbo	2
21:56	129	DT	xGE	3
			Simbo	3
21:57	131	Abe	xAutumn	1
			Simbo	4
21:57	134	JAG	xGE	2

[britrock88]

To keep the pressure on a big player yesterday...

vote DaddyTorgo

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by britrock88

Do we know how the Skeptic shows up on a scan?

Oh and regarding this, the skeptic should show up like a villager.

[Abe Sargent]

night all

[CrimsonFox]

back from work. Sorry. I work late shift.

Sorry Simbo. Didn't mean to start a run on you. At least you are in the 1st day club now. Happy times!

So BG blcok was it?

[CrimsonFox]

Originally Posted by britrock88

My best Narc impression:

time    post    voter    votee    #
10:13    47    Abe    Autumn    1
10:29    49    Autumn    DT    1
10:33    50    JAG    GE    1
15:20    71    CF    Simbo    1
16:43    78    Zinto    Autumn    2
16:49    81    Simbo    GE    2
18:25    84    CR    DT    2
19:41    98    brit    GE    3
19:52    102    DT    Simbo    2
21:42    118    GE    DT    3
21:45    119    DT    xSimbo    1
            GE    4
21:50    122    GE    xDT    2
            Simbo    2
21:56    129    DT    xGE    3
            Simbo    3
21:57    131    Abe    xAutumn    1
            Simbo    4
21:57    134    JAG    xGE    2

Very poor imitation of Narcizo. LIke a knockoff halloween costume as opposed to the real thing.

[CrimsonFox]

Not a thing to do

But talk to you

[CrimsonFox]

We're all alright!
We're all alright!

[CrimsonFox]

I think this is the first Abe/DT game I have ever seen.

[JAG]

So here is where everyone's initial votes were yesterday (pre-reveal and DT vote swap to Simbo), assuming GE isn't lying for purposes of below colors for both he and Zinto:


2 Autumn - Abe Sargent (47), Zinto (78)
3 DaddyTorgo - Autumn (49), Chief Rum (84), GoldenEagle (122)
3 GoldenEagle - JAG (50), Simbo Klice (81), britrock88 (98)
2 Simbo Klice - CrimsonFox (71), DaddyTorgo (102),

[DaddyTorgo]

Originally Posted by CrimsonFox

I think this is the first Abe/DT game I have ever seen.

Hmm? What do you mean?

[DaddyTorgo]

I think that was actually a very good D1 that tells us a bunch.

Presumed Good:
Abe
JAG
DT

Good
GE (unless he was ballsy and faked a seer reveal)
Kimbo
Zinto

So that means 2 of the following are wolfy

brit
CR
CF
mau

We have a 50% chance of hitting a wolf in that group. If we can avoid ending up on the BG and forcing a reveal we might even get another night's block out of it and wrap this thing up (BG guards GE, we get another night of GE scan). Worst case scenario we out the BG and end up with a list of 3 possible wolves and have a 66% shot at a wolf in that list.

[Autumn]

I must be out of practice because I don't understand a single thing in that post DT. Well, I get the Good category. But why are Abe, Jag and DT presumed good? And why am I not even on the list?

[Autumn]

Looking at the last second switches, I don't give DT plus or minus credit - he had incentive to start the switch to someone other than himself. I give Abe a plus for moving his vote, and JAG a plus also, though a half a minus for not voting for someone else.

I'm not going to give GE a ton of belief, as it would be a lock that a wolf would reveal seer in his circumstance. But obviously we're not going to vote him or Zinto at this point anyway. But if he's a fake, the real seer shouldn't wait any longer until next day to reveal.

Nothing stands out in the vote record, so I'll revisit posts before voting this morning.

[JAG]

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

I think it's maybe more likely that we lucked into a random BG-block elsewhere.

Whoever is the BG, that could be some valuable information because while it's possible they blocked an attack on a random villager, they might have guarded an elf who was sent to attack someone (like GE if he's telling the truth). That possibility may be unlikely as there are other reasons that could have happened (wolves didn't have time to switch kill order, wolves didn't get in a night kill, wolves sent Santa to do the kill instead of the elf), but something to think about anyway.

[DaddyTorgo]

Originally Posted by Autumn

I must be out of practice because I don't understand a single thing in that post DT. Well, I get the Good category. But why are Abe, Jag and DT presumed good? And why am I not even on the list?

Because we were on at deadline and yet the seer lived through the night. Not a definitive, as maybe there was a BG block on GE already setup, but a real strong lean IMO.

And you're not on the list because ummm...I glossed over your name this morning when writing that post because I hadn't had my morning caffeine and I was in a rush?

[JAG]

FWIW Autumn, I was working on vote count for a little while, then after I posted I saw there were a number of new posts, so I read back to see GE's reveal. I unvoted him so I could be sure not to leave a vote on him, then read back to see Simbo had an overwhelming lead and I didn't feel strongly enough to make a last second case for someone other than Simbo so my vote was going to be pointless. I don't think the unvotes by Abe or myself are that significant anyway if GE is who he claims, don't think a wolf would do anything other than what we did as it would draw major suspicion. In fact, if GE is lying, it looks worse for us.

[DaddyTorgo]

Evidence of Good:
Abe (on at deadline, no change in wolfy night kill)
JAG (on at deadline, no change in wolfy night kill)
DT (on at deadline, no change in wolfy night kill)

Good
GE (unless he was ballsy and faked a seer reveal)
Kimbo (dead villager)
Zinto (cleared by GE)

So that means 2 of the following are wolfy

brit
CR
CF
mau
autumn

[DaddyTorgo]

I don't see a reason to vote for someone other than someone in the bottom list, and since britrock opened the day with a quick vote on me to "keep the pressure on someone who was active on d1" i'm going there for now.

VOTE BRITROCK

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by JAG

FWIW Autumn, I was working on vote count for a little while, then after I posted I saw there were a number of new posts, so I read back to see GE's reveal. I unvoted him so I could be sure not to leave a vote on him, then read back to see Simbo had an overwhelming lead and I didn't feel strongly enough to make a last second case for someone other than Simbo so my vote was going to be pointless. I don't think the unvotes by Abe or myself are that significant anyway if GE is who he claims, don't think a wolf would do anything other than what we did as it would draw major suspicion. In fact, if GE is lying, it looks worse for us.

I only gave you half a negative because yeah, I would probably do the same thing in a hurry, just to be sure. But since it also takes away a bit of info, you get half neg.

I don't think the switches are worth much, but it was last second enough that a wolf could get away with not moving it and just not posting until later, so I think it's worth a little. In a small game in that situation as a wolf I might just feign ignorance and hope to slip by.

[Autumn]

Has mauboy even checked in?

[Autumn]

I'm going to go with someone who has been abnormally quiet, and hasn't gotten any votes yet. And I do this even knowing that any time I vote for CF he becomes absolutely certain I'm a wolf. Bold move. I think it's good to get another good selection of candidates though.

VOTE CRIMSONFOX

[Abe Sargent]

Morning all

[Abe Sargent]

That's a lot of activity from yesterday and some good analysis this morning lads

[britrock88]

Originally Posted by CrimsonFox

Very poor imitation of Narcizo. LIke a knockoff halloween costume as opposed to the real thing.

[Chief Rum]

When it comes to WW, excuses matter little, but FWIW, I was at work last night when GE's reveal happened and when the deadline went down. Of course, my vote was on DT, so that didn't have much impact. But thought I would put that out there.

I have read the morning's analysis, but I admit, I haven't yet digested it and understood it. I'll re-read and if I have anything new, I'll give my thoughts.

The one thing I read that I would agree with is that we shouldn't rush to presume GE is innocent. As noted, revealing as seer would be an obvious wolf move, especially on Day One when it's way too soon for the seer himself (if it isn't GE) to out himself for the sake of catching the false revelation.

I think it has been mentioned as well, but just in case anyone hasn't focused on it, we should also consider a BG block in light of possibly stopping a kill by "guarding" a wolf. It's not yet proven that the BG even guarded a potential victim.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by britrock88

I thought it was terrific, britrock.

CF was just disappointed he didn't step into the Narcizo role before you did.

[DaddyTorgo]

Yeah - I think CF just misses Narcizo and was joking around with you.

[GoldenEagle]

We are getting into some meta-game territory here.

[britrock88]

time post voter votee #
22:57 159 Abe mauboy 1
23:21 168 brit DT 1
09:14 185 DT brit 1
09:26 188 Autumn CF 1

1 mauboy - Abe (159)
1 DT - britrock (168)
1 britrock - DT (185)
1 CF - Autumn (188)

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by GoldenEagle

We are getting into some meta-game territory here.

Where?

[britrock88]

I'll get around to putting the top part in code later...

[Chief Rum]

Hmm, curious questions upon re-readign the rules.

Questions for EagleFan:

1. Does the Fat Man have PM rights with his Elves?
2. Do we know if the Fat Man when he chooses a target and the Elf doing the killing, if he does it all himself or does the Elf in question have to submit a kill order?
3. Silly question, but do the Fat Man and Elves who the others are?
4. Do either of them know who the Sceptic is?
5. What happens if the Sceptic is attacked?
6. The rules state that the Sceptic "will find out who the evil team is". Is this information given to the Sceptic at the start of the game or does he learn it sometime during the course of the game, maybe at a certain time/day, or under certain conditions?

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

Where?

I think he's talking about the fact that people are basing votes on who was in thread at deadline.