The 2024 Presidential Nomination Thread

[GrantDawg]

Bill Barr shooting down the Trumper's arguments:

Barr debunks GOP spin: "There are 2 bigs lies that are out there right now. One is that, 'oh, these other presidents took all these documents' ... and the second thing is this idea that the president has complete authority to declare any document personal is facially ridiculous" pic.twitter.com/ofAeWzVfxE

— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) June 11, 2023

[albionmoonlight]

Barr has really good instincts for this stuff.

If he's jumping, then the ship is sinking, IMO

[albionmoonlight]

Braxton Bragg was a general in the Confederate Army. Most of his battles ended in defeat. 1860 U.S. Census: 110 people enslaved by him at his plantation.

Pence: We will end the political correctness, North Carolina will once again be home to Fort Bragg. pic.twitter.com/ubS5aFx0pF

— Derek Friday (@DerekFriday) June 11, 2023

Yeah. I'm politically correct. I oppose treasonous slave empires run by cowards. I'm not ashamed of that, even though a lot of people seem to think I should be.

My question for you--why aren't you politically correct?

[GrantDawg]

Yeah, I'm not getting how wanting to change a base name from "Liberty" back to the name of a traitor to his country is a good campaign promise.

[JPhillips]

Trump up 61/23 over DeSantis and the rest in a CBS poll.

You can't win the nomination by defending Trump. You may not win regardless, but that's the only hope.

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

Barr has really good instincts for this stuff.

If he's jumping, then the ship is sinking, IMO

I'm sure he still has contacts and gets some info from the Justice Department and he's been saying this is the most serious potential charge Trump faces for months.

And if anyone thinks he's biased against Trump now that he's out of office and no longer works for him, he still stated a week ago that he'd vote from Trump if he somehow wins the nomination because he prefers his policies.

[flere-imsaho]

If I was President, I'd change the name to "Fort English", just to piss people off.

[albionmoonlight]

Super PACs are already spending millions in Iowa on presidential race

$25 million in Super PAC spending in Iowa already.

I guess if your job involves local media advertising in early primary states or general election swing states, this isn't a waste of money. This is how you feed your kids.

But every four years we spend literally billions on ads that barely move the needle, and then we have nothing to show for it.

Almost like setting the money on fire instead of building shit with it.

[NobodyHere]

Originally Posted by flere-imsaho

If I was President, I'd change the name to "Fort English", just to piss people off.

I would change it to "Fort Nite" in order to get the gaming crowd vote.

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

Trump up 61/23 over DeSantis and the rest in a CBS poll.

You can't win the nomination by defending Trump. You may not win regardless, but that's the only hope.

Trump's political instincts are outstanding. He's smart enough to start attacking woke and tying it directly to desantis. Culture war is the only thing DeSantis has shown he has interest in. He's not very knowledgeable on other issues and tries to steer everything toward woke.

[GrantDawg]

Nikki Haley the first one to have the balks to attack Trump on the indictment. Might cross over and vote for her in the primary.

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[Ksyrup]

Asa Hutchinson has been attacking him since before it dropped, I think.

[GrantDawg]

Ok, the first one polling above 1%.

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[JPhillips]

From the same CBS poll:

2024 National Republican Primary, Consider supporting/Not consider:

Trump 75%/14% (+61)
DeSantis 51%/27% (+24)
T. Scott 21%/42% (-21)
Haley 15%/57% (-42)
Ramaswamy 13%/56% (-43)
Pence 16%/60% (-44)
Elder 9%/61% (-52)
Hutchinson 6%/73% (-67)
Burgum 4%/73% (-69)
Christie 7%/79% (-72)

It's over and Trump is going to be the nominee.

[Thomkal]

Tim Scott too has "read the indictment" and calls it a serious case with serious allegations". Until tomorrow when all the stuff happens to Trump and he'll change his tune again.

[Flasch186]

I actually think if trump wins the nom he’ll get crushed in the election as no one middle will vote for him


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[PilotMan]

Originally Posted by Atocep

Trump's political instincts are outstanding. He's smart enough to start attacking woke and tying it directly to desantis. Culture war is the only thing DeSantis has shown he has interest in. He's not very knowledgeable on other issues and tries to steer everything toward woke.

Except that now trump is on the record saying he'll do it bigger, better, faster and more extreme. That he'll do it "right".

[NobodyHere]

Originally Posted by Flasch186

I actually think if trump wins the nom he’ll get crushed in the election as no one middle will vote for him


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I would love to think that you're right on this one.

[RainMaker]

I just don't see which states Trump can pick up that he didn't win last time.


Lets assume he can flip Wisconsin, which was fairly close. Trump would have to win 2 of Arizona, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and/or Georgia. Those are 4 states that Trump candidates got absolutely thumped in 2022.


A lot can change but I just don't see where he is going to make up that ground.

[GrantDawg]

Strong third party candidate could hand Trump every stare that was a close lost. That is the biggest threat.

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[Atocep]

Originally Posted by PilotMan

Except that now trump is on the record saying he'll do it bigger, better, faster and more extreme. That he'll do it "right".

I should clarify that his political instincts for what plays well on the right are outstanding. Those same things are what kills him in the general.

[Qwikshot]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

I just don't see which states Trump can pick up that he didn't win last time.


Lets assume he can flip Wisconsin, which was fairly close. Trump would have to win 2 of Arizona, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and/or Georgia. Those are 4 states that Trump candidates got absolutely thumped in 2022.


A lot can change but I just don't see where he is going to make up that ground.

I don't know about Michigan, but I wouldn't be surprised is Pennsylvania, Arizona, Nevada and Georgia could all be in play. There are some true believers out there. They know this might be the last chance.

[Brian Swartz]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

It's over and Trump is going to be the nominee.

He might well be the nominee, but it's never over at this stage. Polls don't start mattering for several months yet.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Brian Swartz

He might well be the nominee, but it's never over at this stage. Polls don't start mattering for several months yet.

You honestly think this is about polls?

[Brian Swartz]

When I'm responding to a post that specifically cites a poll, yes I do.

[SirFozzie]

I think it's most likely that Trump will be the candidate for president, and he will lose. (I'm going to put "Maybe the horse will learn how to sing" caveats on all of it. He may die of natural causes beforehand. He may literally shoot someone on 5th avenue.)

I don't see how he wins (fairly, that is), in that he's going to be nothing BUT the base for support, and that's not enough.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Brian Swartz

When I'm responding to a post that specifically cites a poll, yes I do.

Fair enough but the polls don't matter. They are a cult of stupids and with 10 other people in the primary he is guarantied to win it.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Qwikshot

I don't know about Michigan, but I wouldn't be surprised is Pennsylvania, Arizona, Nevada and Georgia could all be in play. There are some true believers out there. They know this might be the last chance.

He already has the true believers in his camp. Where are the people who voted Biden or stayed home in 2020 he would need to flip? They don't exist. Not to mention there has been 4 years of his base dying off or being turned off by him and 4 years of kids coming of voting age, most of whom hate him. Throw in Dobbs and there isn't a lane for him.

[Brian Swartz]

There are many times where the candidate people were sure would win a nomination, didn't. Right now lots of people have opinions about how it will turn out, but nobody knows.

[SirFozzie]

BTW, am I the only one who noticed Presidential is misspelled in the title? (Presdential)

[thesloppy]

Originally Posted by Lathum

He already has the true believers in his camp. Where are the people who voted Biden or stayed home in 2020 he would need to flip? They don't exist. Not to mention there has been 4 years of his base dying off or being turned off by him and 4 years of kids coming of voting age, most of whom hate him. Throw in Dobbs and there isn't a lane for him.

I personally can't disagree with any of this, but I thought the same thing in 2020 and his stellar governance somehow won him 11 million more votes than 2016.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by Brian Swartz

He might well be the nominee, but it's never over at this stage. Polls don't start mattering for several months yet.

I agree that I would not conclude anything this early in this particular cycle. Because Trump is a candidate, it can go all sort of ways. I definitely do not believe he has it in the bag yet, a lot to play out.

However, polls (even early ones the year before) are somewhat predictive.

We Analyzed 40 Years Of Primary Polls. Even Early On, They’re Fairly Predictive. | FiveThirtyEight

In the chart below, for the calendar year before the primaries began, we averaged each candidate’s polls in the first half of the year (January through June) and in the second half of the year (July through December), and then plotted those two averages against the share of votes each person won in the next year’s primaries, for every competitive nomination process from 1972 to 2016. The correlation is pretty strong for both halves of the year,2 though polls from the second half of the year matched the outcomes a little better, which is not surprising — after all, those polls were conducted closer to the start of primary season.

[Brian Swartz]

Sure, but they're a lot more reliable starting around Februaryish the last time I looked of the year of the election. There's a lot more moving around prior to that. Howard Dean, Hillary Clinton, Giuliani, Gingrich all had sizable leads early on and were not nominated. That's quite a few examples in not a very long timeframe. Plus there's also the factor that polls are somewhat less reliable than they used to be. I think we're mostly just possibly miscommunicating on the level of degree here. I may have overstated it in what I said; I don't think they are useless, I just don't think they are anything to base certainty on, which is where this conversation started.

If someone says Trump is the favorite, I agree with them. If they use words such as have been used on this forum such as 'it's over' and 'guarantee', I think they're wrong and are presuming far, far too much on the future.

[Lathum]

None of those people you listed have ever been leaders of a cult.

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by SirFozzie

BTW, am I the only one who noticed Presidential is misspelled in the title? (Presdential)

edit: got it

[albionmoonlight]

Tim Scott exists as a viable candidate.

GOP voters have the chance to make him their nominee. Absolutely nothing is stopping them.

[albionmoonlight]

DeSantis supporters are getting frustrated w/ candidates they believe are running for veep. https://t.co/SxGR1kJ8w4 pic.twitter.com/5CsRo7VMHT

— Benjy Sarlin (@BenjySarlin) June 13, 2023

Come on, Ron. This is weak sauce. "We'd be in a better position to win if there were less competition."

I mean, really? You're already making excuses for South Carolina?

Trump could go away tomorrow, and I'd still wonder about Ron's ability to handle anything other than a kid gloves primary.

[RainMaker]

It's also weak since Christie is running just so he can be Ron's AG.

[Edward64]

Another one. More the merrier (for now).

I got to believe he's positioning for VP, Cabinet or 2028.

Miami GOP Mayor Francis Suarez has filed federal paperwork to join the crowded Republican field for president, becoming the third candidate from Florida running for the GOP nomination.

[thesloppy]

I'm starting to wonder if there's a legit path to victory, based simply on Biden/Trump fatigue, for whatever non-Trump candidate that manages to secure the GOP nomnation.

For all of their attempts to latch onto MAGA-in-a-bottle for the primary, just being somethng different might pay the most return in the general. Still sucks to be Mike Pence, of course. Not Trump, but still covered in his stink

[Brian Swartz]

I think there is, but I also think they'd have to be starting that now/soon, and be getting a significant amount of support for doing it in the early primaries.

On the DeSantis thing, it's unfair to blame Ron himself for something said by a 'person within DeSantis world', whatever that means. If he said it or his campaign manager said it, that's something else. It's a 'wow, the sun rose today' level revelation to note that a supporter of a candidate said something off.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by thesloppy

I'm starting to wonder if there's a legit path to victory, based simply on Biden/Trump fatigue, for whatever non-Trump candidate that manages to secure the GOP nomnation.

For all of their attempts to latch onto MAGA-in-a-bottle for the primary, just being somethng different might pay the most return in the general. Still sucks to be Mike Pence, of course. Not Trump, but still covered in his stink

I think DeSantis had a chance if he declared right after the midterms and tried to bury Trump as a loser. That was a window when it seemed like the party was looking for an off-ramp from him and he was at his lowest. You heard about how Fox and other propaganda outlets were going to move on from him.



Ron waited and it allowed Trump to regain his footing. He also let Trump just attack him for months without a response.


Trump wins the primary in a landslide now but I do think there was a window where a smart campaign by DeSantis could have made it very interesting.

[Ksyrup]

Absolutely not!

New: Asa Hutchinson has asked the RNC to amend its loyalty pledge so candidates won’t have to promise to potentially support a convicted felon. In a call today, RNC officials said absolutely not. https://t.co/9mSD6pyFug

— Natalie Allison (@natalie_allison) June 15, 2023

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by thesloppy

I'm starting to wonder if there's a legit path to victory, based simply on Biden/Trump fatigue, for whatever non-Trump candidate that manages to secure the GOP nomnation.

Only DeSantis ever had a shot, the rest couldn't inspire starving buzzards to fresh meat.

[thesloppy]

To be clear, my post wasn't about beating Trump in a primary, it was assuming Trump loses that nomination in some other fashion (and to be even more clear, I'm not arguing the likelihood of that happening, I'm just saying IF it did, for whatever/any reason).

I think Trump's base has demonstrated the memory and patience of a fly and though they seem to be strongly coalesced behind Trump and only Trump I think they'd just as easily fall behind practically anybody else as long as Trump was truly removed from the picture & folks who may have thought they didn't care one-way-or-the-other would be motivated by the simple offer of something different, entirely regardless of facts/policy/primary/debate.

[albionmoonlight]

Originally Posted by thesloppy

To be clear, my post wasn't about beating Trump in a primary, it was assuming Trump loses that nomination in some other fashion (and to be even more clear, I'm not arguing the likelihood of that happening, I'm just saying IF it did, for whatever/any reason).

I think Trump's base has demonstrated the memory and patience of a fly and though they seem to be strongly coalesced behind Trump and only Trump I think they'd just as easily fall behind practically anybody else as long as Trump was truly removed from the picture & folks who may have thought they didn't care one-way-or-the-other would be motivated by the simple offer of something different, entirely regardless of facts/policy/primary/debate.

Also, a lot of supporters would immediately convince themselves that they never really supported Trump anyway.

[thesloppy]

I guess the wrinkle there is how Trump chooses to leave the picture. If he actively tells supporters not to vote for anyone else that would probably still carry enough weight to fuck things up....and be hilarious.

[Jas_lov]

Trump will now need the R nominee to win the General and pardon him, so he has to support them if he loses the primary.

[SirFozzie]

the maximum chaos option: Biden vs Not-Trump (R) vs No Labels vs Trump Independent (to spite the R who beat him)

[GrantDawg]

No Labels is saying they will only run a candidate if Trump is the nominee. Dead give away on what they are doing, isn't it?

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