Werewolf 108, The Gang Wars of 1929 GAME OVER - North Siders Win - Page 4

J23 · 02-09-2010, 09:23 PM

I was just finally able to get back online. Sorry about the no vote. Still reading to see whathappened.

Lathum · 02-09-2010, 09:25 PM

Pass' indifference makes me wonder if he is Capone

GoldenEagle · 02-09-2010, 09:27 PM

Results are forthcoming.

EagleFan · 02-09-2010, 09:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Autumn

How did you give Lathum a choice? His only choice at that point was to vote Pass or hope other people moved to CF.

He had no course of action prior to that, other than wait to see what happens. I brought Pass into the mix giving Lathum a chance to save himself.

Maybe a bad move, but Lathum can be a valuable villager and it would be a shame to lynch a possible asset this early with no evidence against him.

Autumn · 02-09-2010, 09:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lathum

Pass' indifference makes me wonder if he is Capone

It will be interesting to see who he picks, if so.

GoldenEagle · 02-09-2010, 09:46 PM

The boss has called together an important meeting. It seems he is concerned that someone, one of his own trusted members of the elite Chicago Outfit, has been leaking information about his plans on Saint Valentine's day. Capone's source tells him that the North Siders are still clueless, but he has decided to eliminate the suspected individual on the spot and silence anymore potential traitors.

Capone calls for Passacaglia, a tough kid and one of the few people actually from Chicago in the gang. Passacagila knows the streets of Chicago well, but the boss has spoken. Capone dismisses everyone from the meeting except Passacagilla. The other members of the gang hear the unmistakable sound of tommy gun clips being emptied.

Afterwards, Capone's source tells him that Passacagilla was just an ordinary gangster, loyal to the Outfits cause. The boss pays for the funeral.

GoldenEagle · 02-09-2010, 09:48 PM

Night actions are due by 9 AM EST.

Lathum · 02-09-2010, 09:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GoldenEagle

The boss pays for the funeral.

lol

Autumn · 02-09-2010, 09:50 PM

Day One Voting

1 - CrimsonFox - Danny (77)
5 - Passacaglia - PurdueBrad (43), Telle (78), DaddyTorgo (86), EagleFan (115), Lathum (117)
1 - Telle - Poli (51)
4 - Lathum - CrimsonFox (81), Chief Rum (87), RealDeal (93), KWhit (113)
1 - Chief Rum - Darth Vilus (62)

Did not vote: J23, Passacaglia, Autumn (unvoted to avoid tie)

EagleFan · 02-09-2010, 09:50 PM

Crud, hence the imporance of early involvement...

EagleFan · 02-09-2010, 09:52 PM

Back to my dynasty, see everyone tomorrow.

Actually, will write up a vote history later and post.

Lathum · 02-09-2010, 09:56 PM

Having a hard time getting past the Kwhit-CF relationship.

CF votes immediately for KWhit, KWhit then retaliates. CF then moves his vote to me, I know, self preservation... KWhit then sees an opportunity to move his vote and takes it by moving to me, claiming to prevent a tie.

Obviously I know I am good so it is easy for me to come to these conclusions.

Autumn · 02-09-2010, 10:12 PM

Well, if CF and Lathum are both good then we have a non-story, obviously. Probably just a bunch of villagers scrambling about.

So let's consider the other possibilities. If either CF or Lathum was bad, then a 4-4 vote near the end is bad for the wolves. Those around to switch included me, DT, EF, Lathum, CF, KWhit. All of these were on the main vote getters but DT, who did not switch I believe. If one of those is a wolf then it seems unlikely DT is one unless he just didn't want to put himself in the limelight.

EF or KWhit had the ability to make Lathum the lynch victim. EF chose not to, instead pushing Pass. If Lathum is bad EF is the obvious next likely wolf. If CF is bad EF might also be suspect for trying to get the vote elsewhere though curious why he wouldn't just pick Lathum.

Lathum couldn't do anything until EF switched to Pass. Nothing much can be said about his movement.

KWhit switched to Lathum. If CF is bad, this could be a move by a wolf KWhit to save him. Obviously if Lathum is bad, this looks great for KWhit.

What if both CF and Lathum are bad? Then EF is again the prime suspect, as they needed someone to push Pass into the limelight.

That's all pretty obvious stuff, but I like to think it out on screen in case anybody thinks of something. With the tie vote, it's hard to see if there was any real movement to save a wolf, or just people busting a tie.

KWhit · 02-09-2010, 10:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lathum

Having a hard time getting past the Kwhit-CF relationship.

CF votes immediately for KWhit, KWhit then retaliates. CF then moves his vote to me, I know, self preservation... KWhit then sees an opportunity to move his vote and takes it by moving to me, claiming to prevent a tie.

Obviously I know I am good so it is easy for me to come to these conclusions.

Say WHAT!?

Opportunity to move my vote? Bullshit. I didn't want a tie. At 3 minutes to deadline, we had one. I was the person who manned up to actually prevent one. I did NOT want to wait any longer than that, because anytime people try to move their votes late, all hell breaks loose (remember last game).

I have no idea who is a wolf. I didn't care if you or CF got lynched. So I moved.

I think the more suspicious movement is all about saving you. Why did you get saved at the last minute?

KWhit · 02-09-2010, 10:40 PM

Also, note that EF and Lathum's vote switches came in the same minute. Ef's switch to Pass came out of the blue to me. I was not expecting Pass to be in the think of the lynch vote at deadline. It's a little odd that Lathum was able to get his vote switched so quickly to Pass, if he was as surprised by it as I assume most all of us were. It makes me think that it's possible he knew it was coming.

Right now, I don't trust Lathum, EF, or CF.

Lathum · 02-09-2010, 10:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by KWhit

Say WHAT!?

Opportunity to move my vote? Bullshit. I didn't want a tie. At 3 minutes to deadline, we had one. I was the person who manned up to actually prevent one. I did NOT want to wait any longer than that, because anytime people try to move their votes late, all hell breaks loose (remember last game).

I have no idea who is a wolf. I didn't care if you or CF got lynched. So I moved.

I think the more suspicious movement is all about saving you. Why did you get saved at the last minute?

At the time Autumn was considering a move and DT was online as well. There was still time for things to happen. As a villager I can only process the info I have. You switched fro CF to me after you guys voting for each other earlier in the day. That looks suspicious to me.

Lathum · 02-09-2010, 10:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by KWhit

Also, note that EF and Lathum's vote switches came in the same minute. Ef's switch to Pass came out of the blue to me. I was not expecting Pass to be in the think of the lynch vote at deadline. It's a little odd that Lathum was able to get his vote switched so quickly to Pass, if he was as surprised by it as I assume most all of us were. It makes me think that it's possible he knew it was coming.

Right now, I don't trust Lathum, EF, or CF.

Right, because you never hit refresh over and over when your ass is on the line 2 minutes before the deadline.

KWhit · 02-09-2010, 10:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lathum

At the time Autumn was considering a move and DT was online as well. There was still time for things to happen. As a villager I can only process the info I have. You switched fro CF to me after you guys voting for each other earlier in the day. That looks suspicious to me.

The problem with waiting around for someone else to move at the last minute is that you get 2 or three people who all try to save the situation at the same time and end up cancelling each other out. That's why I made sure to do it with a few minutes to spare so everyone could see that it WASN'T going to be a tie.

Lathum · 02-09-2010, 11:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by KWhit

The problem with waiting around for someone else to move at the last minute is that you get 2 or three people who all try to save the situation at the same time and end up cancelling each other out. That's why I made sure to do it with a few minutes to spare so everyone could see that it WASN'T going to be a tie.

Then why not vote for Pass and let me switch? All I have to go on is I know I am good, you voted me and in turn helped get the heat off of CF.

Lathum · 02-09-2010, 11:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CrimsonFox

A red caddilac drives by Chauncey's and a barrage of gunfire is heard. People duck and run for cover. No casualties and the cops are just a minute too late. Their only clue is the brick wall outside that reads in a bullet pattern:

"VOTE KWHIT"

Quote:

Originally Posted by CrimsonFox

Very interesting indeed as I figured I was toast. The bolt onto pass was obviously to save Lathum.

These two posts really stick out to me. Day 1 CF votes 2 minutes in and before results are even processed he says the moves were made to save me. How would he be able to make this statement without knowing the results? If Pass is a wolf it changes everything, how can CF be so certain unless he knows Pass' allegiance already?

It seems to me he is toeing the line trying to get a scan.

EagleFan · 02-09-2010, 11:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Autumn

a 4-4 vote near the end is bad for the wolves

How is a tie bad for the wolves? A tie is generally a good thing for the wolves as it gives the village nothing to go on. Even if one of the 2 were a wolf it woudn;t have t be bad wor the wolves. We saw last game where all of the wolves were willing to sacrifice the cunning day one just to gain trust so this would mean that with a tie they could just ride it out to see if a no lynch were to happen (is that the tie rule this game, didn't check but assumed), wait to see if a vllager would cast a deciding vote on a villager or take a chance at earning trust by voting that wolf to earn trust.

KWhit · 02-09-2010, 11:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lathum

Then why not vote for Pass and let me switch? All I have to go on is I know I am good, you voted me and in turn helped get the heat off of CF.

Voting for Pass would have just made another tie at the time. The only way to be certain that there wasn't a tie was to vote for you.

And besides, why would I choose to vote for Pass over you? I had no reason to believe that Pass was any more or less guilty than you.

I broke the tie in the only way I could be sure to do so.

But then, surprisingly, EF saves your bacon. Not sure why.

Autumn · 02-09-2010, 11:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by EagleFan

How is a tie bad for the wolves? A tie is generally a good thing for the wolves as it gives the village nothing to go on. Even if one of the 2 were a wolf it woudn;t have t be bad wor the wolves. We saw last game where all of the wolves were willing to sacrifice the cunning day one just to gain trust so this would mean that with a tie they could just ride it out to see if a no lynch were to happen (is that the tie rule this game, didn't check but assumed), wait to see if a vllager would cast a deciding vote on a villager or take a chance at earning trust by voting that wolf to earn trust.

My thought there was that generally if there was one wolf in a tie with 15 minutes left, it is unlikely the village is going ot leave it in a tie. It is in the wolves' interest to make the move rather than wait and see if one of them is going to bie it.

But of course you're right that it's not the only possibility. I was just trying to squeeze anythingout of this I could. Nothing is certainly very damning in any direction.

Autumn · 02-09-2010, 11:32 PM

Well, it's a long night in Chicago. Rather than give the wolves any help I'm going to bow out 'til morning and see what happens over night.

Lathum · 02-09-2010, 11:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by KWhit

But then, surprisingly, EF saves your bacon. Not sure why.

He actually provided reasoning. I have no intention of voting you tomorrow, I just think the connection needs to be explored.

PurdueBrad · 02-10-2010, 08:03 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by KWhit

Clusterfuck at deadline, as always.

Man, deadlines have been exciting lately.

I'm curious about the moves that put the game into a tie at a couple of occasions and will definitely be looking at those votes before moving much deeper today.

The other place I will likely look is the Passacaglia voters. With 5 voters on him in a game of 16, I would believe that at least one of them is likely a wolf. Since I'm one of them, it narrows it down to a 1/4 shot for me.

GoldenEagle · 02-10-2010, 09:10 AM

You are all sitting around the Lexington Hotel when you hear the commotion. Capone is storming around, cussing at anyone in ear range. He is upset that one of his best men, Darth Vilus, was gunned down last night. The rumor on the streets is that Bugs Moran himself did the killing.

Capone's pissed and he is out for blood today.

GoldenEagle · 02-10-2010, 09:12 AM

Day 2 has begun. The deadline is 9PM EST.

Autumn · 02-10-2010, 10:05 AM

Day One Voting

1 - CrimsonFox - Danny (77)
5 - Passacaglia - PurdueBrad (43), Telle (78), DaddyTorgo (86), EagleFan (115), Lathum (117)
1 - Telle - Poli (51)
4 - Lathum - CrimsonFox (81), Chief Rum (87), RealDeal (93), KWhit (113)
1 - Chief Rum - Darth Vilus (62)

Did not vote: J23, Passacaglia, Autumn (unvoted to avoid tie)

Autumn · 02-10-2010, 10:05 AM

Wise of the wolves to kill off someone who doesn't help us in the voting record at all.

PurdueBrad · 02-10-2010, 10:38 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Autumn

Wise of the wolves to kill off someone who doesn't help us in the voting record at all.

I was thinking the exact same thing.

Lathum · 02-10-2010, 10:48 AM

I a really suspicious of CF at this point but I also think there may be another wolf who was on me. I am an easy sell as a day 1 lynch candidate. Killing DV is also a move I can see CR making.

What really worries me is I can see CF as the cunning trying to get scanned but I a trying to work on the fact that when I focus on something I tend to not let it go.

Other thoughts are that DV had a useless vote which leaves Poli and J23 as the only other 2 with useless votes. I'm not counting Danny since CF had a lot of heat up until the end, which also makes me wonder.

Autumn · 02-10-2010, 10:57 AM

I would tend to want to see CF, EF or Lathum in the race today, I think. I'm curious about EF's move to Pass and lack of move to Lathum. Given the way the votes moved it seems very possible that either CF or Lathum are wolves.

I think it would help us to figure that out sooner than later. But I hate to end up lynching a scan target from last night so I may go in a different direction for now.

Lathum · 02-10-2010, 11:08 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Autumn

I would tend to want to see CF, EF or Lathum in the race today, I think. I'm curious about EF's move to Pass and lack of move to Lathum. Given the way the votes moved it seems very possible that either CF or Lathum are wolves.

I think it would help us to figure that out sooner than later. But I hate to end up lynching a scan target from last night so I may go in a different direction for now.

I see your reasoning. As a villager I obviously say we should go for CF.

I am really considering Poli today based on his non committal vote.

Chief Rum · 02-10-2010, 11:24 AM

Yesterday I voted for Lathum, not for any reason specific to him, but because the numbers set up that way, with me hoping to get an interesting and telling vote result (which we got).

But since then, Lathum had a post that struck a minor vibe with me and gives my gut a feeling I may have accidentally hit on a wolf. Plus, he was technically "saved" at the deadline yesterday (of course, so was CF).

I'm going to go with Lathum for now, but it's very fleeting--it is entirely a gut feel from one of his posts, and it's rather far from convincing.

VOTE LATHUM

PurdueBrad · 02-10-2010, 11:37 AM

Based on a couple conversations I had with Hoops regarding how he's able to nail wolves when he's not playing, I'm going to pay less attention to voting data (not ignoring it, just not #1 priority) and more attention to actual posts. So from today already, here's a quick summary (mainly for later reference):

Lathum: Suspicious specifically of CF
Also willing to look at other voters on him (Real Deal, CF, and CR)
Poli and J23's "useless" votes should be considered

Autumn: Suspicious of CF, EF, and Lathum
"very possible" that either CF or Lathum is a wolf

CR: Wolf vibe from Lathum (possible save) but gut feel

PB: I am actually looking at similar people, only in a different way. The killing of Darth Vilus (a lay off vote, so no data and the fact that all the primary controversy drivers are still around) makes for an interesting choice. I am looking at two of the veterans for that: CR and Lathum. I was going to go after the late vote moves but that has proven incredibly unsuccessful in recent games. So I'm coin toss between those two right now.

Lathum · 02-10-2010, 12:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

Yesterday I voted for Lathum, not for any reason specific to him, but because the numbers set up that way, with me hoping to get an interesting and telling vote result (which we got).

But since then, Lathum had a post that struck a minor vibe with me and gives my gut a feeling I may have accidentally hit on a wolf. Plus, he was technically "saved" at the deadline yesterday (of course, so was CF).

The least you could do is quote the post in question

EagleFan · 02-10-2010, 12:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PurdueBrad

Based on a couple conversations I had with Hoops regarding how he's able to nail wolves when he's not playing, I'm going to pay less attention to voting data (not ignoring it, just not #1 priority) and more attention to actual posts. So from today already, here's a quick summary (mainly for later reference):

Interestingly enough, I am looking at going this direction. I never used to look at voting history as much as I looked at posts. Recently I have been doing the voting history tracking and have started to notice that my gut has been way off as I have been basing my thinking more on the votes than on the posts.

I think that I used to have better success "nailing" the wolves when I went off what they said (or how they said it) instead of how they voted.

The only time that the voting history helped me (and only briefly) was when I was the seer a couple games ago and was able to add PB to my trust list based on his vote coupled with my day one scan result.

I may not be doing these vote histories anymore. Off the record, I may still do them if I am a seer again but won't be posting them...

Lathum · 02-10-2010, 12:22 PM

Hoops and I have had these discussions as well. Basically we are strategically evolving as wolves and realize that villagers have preconceived notions about villager patterns and the wolves use them to their advantage. Just look at what happened last game.

EagleFan · 02-10-2010, 12:33 PM

Why does this series of posts seem odd to me?

First, prior to the deadline a request to move votes (to save self and prevent a tie) the request to move to Pass:

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lathum

well we either need to move to pass or Autumn needs to move

Soon after the deadline, we get this response for why people moved and why it wasn't to save him but to prevent a tie:

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lathum

no it wasn't, it was to prevent a tie.

Then a few minutes later, but before the results are announced we get this...

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lathum

I think the way people were jumping of CF bears some looking into. I can see a scenerio where a wolf had an early vote on CF to get trust, then saw an opportunity to jump off.

How in a matter of 20 minutes does a move go from:

Asked for by Lathum

to

Explained away as an attempt to prevent a tie but not as an attempt to save Lathum

and then to

Suspicious because people may be saving CF

EagleFan · 02-10-2010, 12:35 PM

dola: Why am I starting to feel like I was played by the World's Greatest Wolf?

EagleFan · 02-10-2010, 12:38 PM

vote Lathum

Placeholder vote based on above...

Chief Rum · 02-10-2010, 12:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lathum

lol

There you go, Lathum. Like I said, not really much to go on. I'm certainly not married to the idea of you being a wolf, but this post hit me wrong.

We have a vote go down bad, and your first instinct is to post a lol about something GE had in the lynch post. No mention of the fact we just had a bad vote or that the person lynched was a good guy.

It's not like everyone is required to post "darn" or something when a villager buys it, but given the vote switching/close result and the fact you were the very first post after the lynch post, it's surprising you didn't mention it or at least put out something obligatory.

It had the feel of a "I already know he's a villager" post. Only way for that to be true, of course.

That plus the vote switching to save you give some credence in my mind to the concept you could be a wolf.

Chief Rum · 02-10-2010, 12:41 PM

It is, admittedly, a weak case.

Lathum · 02-10-2010, 01:11 PM

Shrug. I thought it was a funny and creative write up and a good line.

Autumn · 02-10-2010, 01:12 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

I'm looking at you tomorrow Autumn. For now though, sorry Pass...want to see how things shake out if we try to consolidate and force people to make votes that count...

UNVOTE LATHUM
VOTE PASSACAGLIA

This is mostly a gut call, but augmented by DT's vote above, which is strange to me. The vote was 3-3-2 CF, Lathum, Pass at this moment. How does making it 3-3-2 CF, Pass, Lathum consolidate votes? DT making this move as a wolf probably only makes sense if Lathum is bad, but since Lathum's already in the mix today I'll add someone else.

Vote DaddyTorgo

DaddyTorgo · 02-10-2010, 01:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lathum

Hoops and I have had these discussions as well. Basically we are strategically evolving as wolves and realize that villagers have preconceived notions about villager patterns and the wolves use them to their advantage. Just look at what happened last game.

feel like we've had some of those convo's as well...about using the villagers preconceived notions against them as wolves

DaddyTorgo · 02-10-2010, 01:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Autumn

This is mostly a gut call, but augmented by DT's vote above, which is strange to me. The vote was 3-3-2 CF, Lathum, Pass at this moment. How does making it 3-3-2 CF, Pass, Lathum consolidate votes? DT making this move as a wolf probably only makes sense if Lathum is bad, but since Lathum's already in the mix today I'll add someone else.

Vote DaddyTorgo

The vote couldn't be 3-3-2 both before and after. And my thinking was to try to keep things close and force people to move their votes later in the day to see what sort of data we got out of that.

That, plus it's enjoyable to give lathum a poke every so often and see how he responds. Gives me something to work with.

PurdueBrad · 02-10-2010, 01:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lathum

Hoops and I have had these discussions as well. Basically we are strategically evolving as wolves and realize that villagers have preconceived notions about villager patterns and the wolves use them to their advantage. Just look at what happened last game.

And that is the exact reason. Wolves are able to do whatever they want with their voting records: good, bad, or middle of the road whereas villagers are random early and very reactionary late. Vote history isn't completely irrelevant but I think as the wolves do become more clever, it becomes much harder to root them out unless you pay much, much more attention to posts over vote detail. And Lathum, you are 1,000,000,000% correct, last game is the perfect evidence of this when the wolves piled on the cunning on day one and buried him.

Chief Rum · 02-10-2010, 02:03 PM

While I haven't had these conversations you all seem to have had, I have as a wolf used my voting record deliberately to hide myself and fellow wolves.

02-09-2010, 09:27 PM	#153
GoldenEagle Grizzled Veteran Join Date: Dec 2002 Location: Little Rock, AR	Results are forthcoming. __________________ Xbox 360 Gamer Tag: GoldenEagle014

02-09-2010, 09:46 PM	#156
GoldenEagle Grizzled Veteran Join Date: Dec 2002 Location: Little Rock, AR	The boss has called together an important meeting. It seems he is concerned that someone, one of his own trusted members of the elite Chicago Outfit, has been leaking information about his plans on Saint Valentine's day. Capone's source tells him that the North Siders are still clueless, but he has decided to eliminate the suspected individual on the spot and silence anymore potential traitors. Capone calls for Passacaglia, a tough kid and one of the few people actually from Chicago in the gang. Passacagila knows the streets of Chicago well, but the boss has spoken. Capone dismisses everyone from the meeting except Passacagilla. The other members of the gang hear the unmistakable sound of tommy gun clips being emptied. Afterwards, Capone's source tells him that Passacagilla was just an ordinary gangster, loyal to the Outfits cause. The boss pays for the funeral. __________________ Xbox 360 Gamer Tag: GoldenEagle014 Last edited by GoldenEagle : 02-09-2010 at 09:46 PM.

02-09-2010, 09:48 PM	#157
GoldenEagle Grizzled Veteran Join Date: Dec 2002 Location: Little Rock, AR	Night actions are due by 9 AM EST. __________________ Xbox 360 Gamer Tag: GoldenEagle014

02-10-2010, 09:10 AM	#177
GoldenEagle Grizzled Veteran Join Date: Dec 2002 Location: Little Rock, AR	You are all sitting around the Lexington Hotel when you hear the commotion. Capone is storming around, cussing at anyone in ear range. He is upset that one of his best men, Darth Vilus, was gunned down last night. The rumor on the streets is that Bugs Moran himself did the killing. Capone's pissed and he is out for blood today. __________________ Xbox 360 Gamer Tag: GoldenEagle014 Last edited by GoldenEagle : 02-10-2010 at 09:10 AM.

02-10-2010, 09:12 AM	#178
GoldenEagle Grizzled Veteran Join Date: Dec 2002 Location: Little Rock, AR	Day 2 has begun. The deadline is 9PM EST. __________________ Xbox 360 Gamer Tag: GoldenEagle014

02-09-2010, 09:23 PM	#151
J23 College Benchwarmer Join Date: Jul 2009	I was just finally able to get back online. Sorry about the no vote. Still reading to see whathappened.

02-09-2010, 09:25 PM	#152
Lathum Favored Bitch #1 Join Date: Dec 2001 Location: homeless in NJ	Pass' indifference makes me wonder if he is Capone

02-09-2010, 09:50 PM	#159
Autumn Head Coach Join Date: Feb 2003 Location: Bath, ME	Day One Voting 1 - CrimsonFox - Danny (77) 5 - Passacaglia - PurdueBrad (43), Telle (78), DaddyTorgo (86), EagleFan (115), Lathum (117) 1 - Telle - Poli (51) 4 - Lathum - CrimsonFox (81), Chief Rum (87), RealDeal (93), KWhit (113) 1 - Chief Rum - Darth Vilus (62) Did not vote: J23, Passacaglia, Autumn (unvoted to avoid tie)

02-09-2010, 09:50 PM	#160
EagleFan Hall Of Famer Join Date: Nov 2000 Location: Mays Landing, NJ USA	Crud, hence the imporance of early involvement...

02-09-2010, 09:52 PM	#161
EagleFan Hall Of Famer Join Date: Nov 2000 Location: Mays Landing, NJ USA	Back to my dynasty, see everyone tomorrow. Actually, will write up a vote history later and post.

02-09-2010, 09:56 PM	#162
Lathum Favored Bitch #1 Join Date: Dec 2001 Location: homeless in NJ	Having a hard time getting past the Kwhit-CF relationship. CF votes immediately for KWhit, KWhit then retaliates. CF then moves his vote to me, I know, self preservation... KWhit then sees an opportunity to move his vote and takes it by moving to me, claiming to prevent a tie. Obviously I know I am good so it is easy for me to come to these conclusions.

02-09-2010, 10:12 PM	#163
Autumn Head Coach Join Date: Feb 2003 Location: Bath, ME	Well, if CF and Lathum are both good then we have a non-story, obviously. Probably just a bunch of villagers scrambling about. So let's consider the other possibilities. If either CF or Lathum was bad, then a 4-4 vote near the end is bad for the wolves. Those around to switch included me, DT, EF, Lathum, CF, KWhit. All of these were on the main vote getters but DT, who did not switch I believe. If one of those is a wolf then it seems unlikely DT is one unless he just didn't want to put himself in the limelight. EF or KWhit had the ability to make Lathum the lynch victim. EF chose not to, instead pushing Pass. If Lathum is bad EF is the obvious next likely wolf. If CF is bad EF might also be suspect for trying to get the vote elsewhere though curious why he wouldn't just pick Lathum. Lathum couldn't do anything until EF switched to Pass. Nothing much can be said about his movement. KWhit switched to Lathum. If CF is bad, this could be a move by a wolf KWhit to save him. Obviously if Lathum is bad, this looks great for KWhit. What if both CF and Lathum are bad? Then EF is again the prime suspect, as they needed someone to push Pass into the limelight. That's all pretty obvious stuff, but I like to think it out on screen in case anybody thinks of something. With the tie vote, it's hard to see if there was any real movement to save a wolf, or just people busting a tie.

02-09-2010, 10:40 PM	#165
KWhit Coordinator Join Date: Jan 2003 Location: Conyers GA	Also, note that EF and Lathum's vote switches came in the same minute. Ef's switch to Pass came out of the blue to me. I was not expecting Pass to be in the think of the lynch vote at deadline. It's a little odd that Lathum was able to get his vote switched so quickly to Pass, if he was as surprised by it as I assume most all of us were. It makes me think that it's possible he knew it was coming. Right now, I don't trust Lathum, EF, or CF.

02-09-2010, 11:32 PM	#174
Autumn Head Coach Join Date: Feb 2003 Location: Bath, ME	Well, it's a long night in Chicago. Rather than give the wolves any help I'm going to bow out 'til morning and see what happens over night.

02-10-2010, 10:05 AM	#179
Autumn Head Coach Join Date: Feb 2003 Location: Bath, ME	Day One Voting 1 - CrimsonFox - Danny (77) 5 - Passacaglia - PurdueBrad (43), Telle (78), DaddyTorgo (86), EagleFan (115), Lathum (117) 1 - Telle - Poli (51) 4 - Lathum - CrimsonFox (81), Chief Rum (87), RealDeal (93), KWhit (113) 1 - Chief Rum - Darth Vilus (62) Did not vote: J23, Passacaglia, Autumn (unvoted to avoid tie)

02-10-2010, 10:05 AM	#180
Autumn Head Coach Join Date: Feb 2003 Location: Bath, ME	Wise of the wolves to kill off someone who doesn't help us in the voting record at all.

02-10-2010, 10:48 AM	#182
Lathum Favored Bitch #1 Join Date: Dec 2001 Location: homeless in NJ	I a really suspicious of CF at this point but I also think there may be another wolf who was on me. I am an easy sell as a day 1 lynch candidate. Killing DV is also a move I can see CR making. What really worries me is I can see CF as the cunning trying to get scanned but I a trying to work on the fact that when I focus on something I tend to not let it go. Other thoughts are that DV had a useless vote which leaves Poli and J23 as the only other 2 with useless votes. I'm not counting Danny since CF had a lot of heat up until the end, which also makes me wonder.

02-10-2010, 10:57 AM	#183
Autumn Head Coach Join Date: Feb 2003 Location: Bath, ME	I would tend to want to see CF, EF or Lathum in the race today, I think. I'm curious about EF's move to Pass and lack of move to Lathum. Given the way the votes moved it seems very possible that either CF or Lathum are wolves. I think it would help us to figure that out sooner than later. But I hate to end up lynching a scan target from last night so I may go in a different direction for now.

02-10-2010, 11:24 AM	#185
Chief Rum Hall Of Famer Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Where Hip Hop lives	Yesterday I voted for Lathum, not for any reason specific to him, but because the numbers set up that way, with me hoping to get an interesting and telling vote result (which we got). But since then, Lathum had a post that struck a minor vibe with me and gives my gut a feeling I may have accidentally hit on a wolf. Plus, he was technically "saved" at the deadline yesterday (of course, so was CF). I'm going to go with Lathum for now, but it's very fleeting--it is entirely a gut feel from one of his posts, and it's rather far from convincing. VOTE LATHUM __________________ . . I would rather be wrong...Than live in the shadows of your song...My mind is open wide...And now I'm ready to start...You're not sure...You open the door...And step out into the dark...Now I'm ready.

02-10-2010, 11:37 AM	#186
PurdueBrad Grizzled Veteran Join Date: Jul 2007 Location: DeKalb, IL	Based on a couple conversations I had with Hoops regarding how he's able to nail wolves when he's not playing, I'm going to pay less attention to voting data (not ignoring it, just not #1 priority) and more attention to actual posts. So from today already, here's a quick summary (mainly for later reference): Lathum: Suspicious specifically of CF Also willing to look at other voters on him (Real Deal, CF, and CR) Poli and J23's "useless" votes should be considered Autumn: Suspicious of CF, EF, and Lathum "very possible" that either CF or Lathum is a wolf CR: Wolf vibe from Lathum (possible save) but gut feel PB: I am actually looking at similar people, only in a different way. The killing of Darth Vilus (a lay off vote, so no data and the fact that all the primary controversy drivers are still around) makes for an interesting choice. I am looking at two of the veterans for that: CR and Lathum. I was going to go after the late vote moves but that has proven incredibly unsuccessful in recent games. So I'm coin toss between those two right now.

02-10-2010, 12:22 PM	#189
Lathum Favored Bitch #1 Join Date: Dec 2001 Location: homeless in NJ	Hoops and I have had these discussions as well. Basically we are strategically evolving as wolves and realize that villagers have preconceived notions about villager patterns and the wolves use them to their advantage. Just look at what happened last game.

02-10-2010, 12:35 PM	#191
EagleFan Hall Of Famer Join Date: Nov 2000 Location: Mays Landing, NJ USA	dola: Why am I starting to feel like I was played by the World's Greatest Wolf?

02-10-2010, 12:38 PM	#192
EagleFan Hall Of Famer Join Date: Nov 2000 Location: Mays Landing, NJ USA	vote Lathum Placeholder vote based on above...

02-10-2010, 12:41 PM	#194
Chief Rum Hall Of Famer Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Where Hip Hop lives	It is, admittedly, a weak case. __________________ . . I would rather be wrong...Than live in the shadows of your song...My mind is open wide...And now I'm ready to start...You're not sure...You open the door...And step out into the dark...Now I'm ready.

02-10-2010, 01:11 PM	#195
Lathum Favored Bitch #1 Join Date: Dec 2001 Location: homeless in NJ	Shrug. I thought it was a funny and creative write up and a good line.

02-10-2010, 02:03 PM	#200
Chief Rum Hall Of Famer Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Where Hip Hop lives	While I haven't had these conversations you all seem to have had, I have as a wolf used my voting record deliberately to hide myself and fellow wolves. __________________ . . I would rather be wrong...Than live in the shadows of your song...My mind is open wide...And now I'm ready to start...You're not sure...You open the door...And step out into the dark...Now I'm ready.

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