Official 2009-2010 MLB Offseason Thread

[JS19]

Not gonna lie, I have no freakin clue what the hell those stats are. Guess it's a good thing I'm not really a "stats" kind of guy.

[dawgfan]

Originally Posted by ISiddiqui

Seriously, Wainwright was ahead by miniscule margins in both measures. 0.1 in WAR and 0.01 in xFIP. They are basically equal in those measurements. Therefore you should look deeper and thus, looking at WPA and ERA+, Carpenter easily outclasses Wainwright. If you are going to use those season long stats as reasons why Wainwright should be above Carpenter, then there is NO REASON not to have Haren above both.

Regarding WAR, if you value that stat, you value the fact that it attempts to quantify the impact of the player over an entire season. It's an all-encompassing stat. I'm not going to get into a debate over how accurate it is, or whether it's a better stat to use than WPA - that's a personal value judgment.

When you look at xFIP, you have to keep in mind that it's only part of the equation, as it doesn't factor in IP. I simply pointed out that not only did Wainwright best Carpenter slightly in that stat, he did so while also pitching quite a few more innings.

Those two things combined, to me, present a valid reason to rank Wainwright ahead of Carpenter, even if the margin is tiny.

As far as Haren goes, I would agree that he should've gotten more love from the voters, especially ones like Law who shouldn't care so much about win totals.

But I will stand by my contention that it's perfectly valid to place Wainwright ahead of Carpenter. I don't think it's a slam-dunk either way, so I'm not going to quibble with one being ranked ahead of the other. As I stated, I think the right guy won the award, and that's the more important thing.

[BishopMVP]

Originally Posted by Atocep

The only award the BBWAA got wrong this year was the NL rookie of the year. I can live with that, although Adam Wainwright getting the most 1st place Cy Young Votes and Miguel Cabrera getting a 1st place vote bugs me.

We can always cherry-pick and complain about the random lower votes for MVP

3 voters thought Cano was 7th? Victor Martinez? Ian Kinsler?? Jason Kubel 7th??? Todd Helton 2nd in the NL? Carpenter and Wainwright with more votes than Lincecum? Yunel Escober 5th? Miguel Tejada, Jeremy Affeldt, Brad Hawpe???

[Big Fo]

It looks like the Braves have a new closer.

Originally Posted by Ken Rosenthal (Fox Sports)

The Braves did not take long to find a new closer.

The team reached preliminary agreement Tuesday with free-agent left-hander Billy Wagner on a one-year, $7 million contract with a vesting option for a second season, according to a major-league source.

The deal will become official once Wagner passes a physical, which he will take in Atlanta on Wednesday. The vesting option, worth $6.5 million, will become guaranteed if Wagner finishes 50 games next season.

foxsports.com link

Wagner is a type-A free agent so the Red Sox will get Atlanta's first round pick but Atlanta will be losing type-A relievers Soriano and Gonzalez and will be getting picks back in return. After coming back from injury Wagner only pitched 15.2 innings last year but his stats were impressive in those innings and he should be at least a slight upgrade from Soriano/Gonzalez.

[DaddyTorgo]

cool - i'll take the type-a pick for wagner, k thnx?

[McSweeny]

Yeah, the 20th overall pick and a sandwich pick for Chris Carter and a couple million bucks? That's one hell of a deal.

[Big Fo]

Yeah the Mets came out the worst in the whole thing. They should have just kept Wagner.

[Logan]

Originally Posted by Big Fo

Yeah the Mets came out the worst in the whole thing. They should have just kept Wagner.

If only any of us thought of this when the deal was announced!

[RedKingGold]

I love that the Braves signed Wagner to be the closer. It can only mean great things for the Phillies.

[sterlingice]

Does Wagner really have much left after his injury? Sure, he had a pretty ERA but it was in 15 IP. How were his velocity and movement?

Originally Posted by Big Fo

Wagner is a type-A free agent so the Red Sox will get Atlanta's first round pick but Atlanta will be losing type-A relievers Soriano and Gonzalez and will be getting picks back in return. After coming back from injury Wagner only pitched 15.2 innings last year but his stats were impressive in those innings and he should be at least a slight upgrade from Soriano/Gonzalez.

Yeah, for them, it looks like "lose a 1st rounder, gain a 1st rounder" but they could have had both. Or how about the scenario with the Blue Jays last year where they only got a 3rd for Burnett because the Yankees went shopping for so much stuff in the high rent district? Was that worth it? Heck, if a bottom 15 team grabs him, don't they only get a 2nd rounder?

SI

[Logan]

Originally Posted by sterlingice

Heck, if a bottom 15 team grabs him, don't they only get a 2nd rounder?

Yes, but still would get the sandwich pick.

[stevew]

refresh my memory-

Sandwich picks have to be signed, or you don't get another pick. That's correct?

What about if you get a pick from someone else for them signing your type A? Does that one also have to be used or lost?

[BishopMVP]

Originally Posted by Logan

If only any of us thought of this when the deal was announced!

Given how retarded Elias' ranking system is (Mike Gonzalez more valuable than John Lackey? Thanks!) that's why the PTBNL should have been dependent on his performance or eventual Type A/B/none status.

That would of course assume the Mets/Minaya would have offered arbitration, and indications were they weren't due to the financial downside if he accepted. If you assume that, the Mets did well enough getting something in return, and the Red Sox continue to use their financial muscle and willingness to spend to pick up potentially valuable pieces (see also Jeremy Hermida).

Originally Posted by sterlingice

Does Wagner really have much left after his injury? Sure, he had a pretty ERA but it was in 15 IP. How were his velocity and movement?

His velocity and movement appeared to be all the way back. No idea if he'll hold up over a whole season, but he was blowing the ball past hitters, not getting lucky out there in his minimal time with Boston.

Originally Posted by JS19

Not gonna lie, I have no freakin clue what the hell those stats are. Guess it's a good thing I'm not really a "stats" kind of guy.

No commentary, I just love that people on a text sim message board in 2009 still post in a stats discussion to point out their ignorance.

Originally Posted by stevew

refresh my memory-

Sandwich picks have to be signed, or you don't get another pick. That's correct?

What about if you get a pick from someone else for them signing your type A? Does that one also have to be used or lost?

When you get a Type A from another team it is treated as a regular pick and you will receive the one after next year it if you fail to sign the player. It's only when you're on that second year pick (pick 20a instead of 20) that you have to sign the player.

I don't think sandwich picks are any different, but I'll try to get confirmation.

[RomaGoth]

Polanco signed with the Phillies today @ $6mil/year.

Philadelphia Phillies, Placido Polanco agree to 3-year, $18 million deal - ESPN

[DeToxRox]

Originally Posted by RomaGoth

Polanco signed with the Phillies today @ $6mil/year.

Philadelphia Phillies, Placido Polanco agree to 3-year, $18 million deal - ESPN

Good get for the Phils. He'll benefit from going back to the NL and being able to play in a variety of positions (I am assuming 3B there?)

He was very good down the stretch but seemed to lose a bit of what he had.

[RedKingGold]

In Amaro We Trust

[Crapshoot]

I think its 1 year more than they should have given him - IMO, the Phillies with Beltre would go in as favorites to make the WS next year. Still, he will be better offensively than Pedro Feliz (but not by much), but may be a downgrade defensively.

[RedKingGold]

Originally Posted by DeToxRox

Good get for the Phils. He'll benefit from going back to the NL and being able to play in a variety of positions (I am assuming 3B there?)

He was very good down the stretch but seemed to lose a bit of what he had.

Yes, he'll play third base. I get the feeling the Phillies went this route because:

(1). He's cheaper than what DeRosa and Beltre will go for.
(2). Phillies keep their first round pick.
(3). He's a righty who doesn't strike out that much.

I don't think he's that much of an upgrade over Feliz, but he should break up our heavy lefty lineup a little bit and get on base without changing J-Roll's free-swinging ways.

[RedKingGold]

dola

Also, it gives us payroll flexibility to add a big ticket guy via trade (i.e. Halladay) if we still want to go down that route.

[Dr. Sak]

Originally Posted by RedKingGold

Yes, he'll play third base. I get the feeling the Phillies went this route because:

(1). He's cheaper than what DeRosa and Beltre will go for.
(2). Phillies keep their first round pick.
(3). He's a righty who doesn't strike out that much.

I don't think he's that much of an upgrade over Feliz, but he should break up our heavy lefty lineup a little bit and get on base without changing J-Roll's free-swinging ways.

He can also play 2nd if something were to happen to Chase, and could give Chase a rest when needed.

Plus he takes pitches.

[DeToxRox]

Originally Posted by RedKingGold

Yes, he'll play third base. I get the feeling the Phillies went this route because:

(1). He's cheaper than what DeRosa and Beltre will go for.
(2). Phillies keep their first round pick.
(3). He's a righty who doesn't strike out that much.

I don't think he's that much of an upgrade over Feliz, but he should break up our heavy lefty lineup a little bit and get on base without changing J-Roll's free-swinging ways.

He's the prototype #2 hitter. His patience was not very good at times this year, but usually he makes pitchers work, mainly because he fouls so many pitches off. Very tough to K. Has some pop, especially in your guys park, he should be good for 10-12 HR with 50-60 RBI.

His D isn't going to be awful. The range is an issue but he is reliable and has a strong arm. Not the ideal 3B but there are worse for sure.

[JS19]

Not sure how proving Lathum's point of "outside of a handful of writers, scouting personnel and geeks like us, no one else does (know what these stats are)" is considered ignorant, but hey, maybe in 2010 it will be less so.

Nice signing by the Phils with Polanco. As much as I hate to admit it, they really are becoming a model franchise. They remind me of the Yanks of the mid to late 90's, building the team from within (Rollins, Utley, Howard, Hamels) and adding hardworking, team oriented impact type guys.

[RedKingGold]

I get the feeling it's a move I'll like more as time passes (much like the Ibanez signing).

[Terps]

Originally Posted by RedKingGold

Yes, he'll play third base. I get the feeling the Phillies went this route because:

(1). He's cheaper than what DeRosa and Beltre will go for.
(2). Phillies keep their first round pick.
(3). He's a righty who doesn't strike out that much.

I don't think he's that much of an upgrade over Feliz, but he should break up our heavy lefty lineup a little bit and get on base without changing J-Roll's free-swinging ways.

DeRosa and Beltre are both type B free agents though, so they wouldn't lose a 1st round pick.

[RomaGoth]

Originally Posted by JS19

Not sure how proving Lathum's point of "outside of a handful of writers, scouting personnel and geeks like us, no one else does (know what these stats are)" is considered ignorant, but hey, maybe in 2010 it will be less so.

You must be new here....

[Ronnie Dobbs2]

New concepts are scary, for sure, but that doesn't mean they're not worth understanding.

[jbergey22]

I was under the impression the Phils were after Figgins. This must mean they went a different direction. I thought Figgins would have been the perfect leadoff hitter for that lineup.

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by jbergey22

I was under the impression the Phils were after Figgins. This must mean they went a different direction. I thought Figgins would have been the perfect leadoff hitter for that lineup.

Figgins is supposedly looking for about $12 mil per year. He's coming off of a career year and even if he drops back down to something between what he was last year and what he had been before that, Polanco is a much better deal.

[Logan]

I really don't like the Polanco move for the Phillies.

I'll let you translate that.

[jbergey22]

Originally Posted by Atocep

Figgins is supposedly looking for about $12 mil per year. He's coming off of a career year and even if he drops back down to something between what he was last year and what he had been before that, Polanco is a much better deal.

Hes a good signing. Now Rollins will still bat leadoff though. Maybe Charlie will smarten up and put Victorino #1 followed by Polanco. Doubtful!

[Dr. Sak]

Originally Posted by Logan

I really don't like the Polanco move for the Phillies.

I'll let you translate that.

Did you morph into a woman?

[Logan]

Ha.

General apathy about how your franchise is being run while seeing the competition make the right moves rips a lot out of you.

[RomaGoth]

Originally Posted by Logan

Ha.

General apathy about how your franchise is being run while seeing the competition make the right moves rips a lot out of you.

Is there some sort of countdown calendar to when Minaya will resign/be fired? I am not a big fan of Cashman, but I feel bad for Mets fans having the management you have had lately.

[Ronnie Dobbs2]

Originally Posted by RomaGoth

Is there some sort of countdown calendar to when Minaya will resign/be fired? I am not a big fan of Cashman, but I feel bad for Mets fans having the management you have had lately.

Sources: Mets GM gets vote of confidence, 4-year extension - MLB - ESPN

2012? With all the talk about the Mets cash issues, I would be surprised if they flushed a lot of cash down the drain by firing him.

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by Ronnie Dobbs2

Sources: Mets GM gets vote of confidence, 4-year extension - MLB - ESPN

2012? With all the talk about the Mets cash issues, I would be surprised if they flushed a lot of cash down the drain by firing him.

Sounds like the Mets cash issues are behind them. Wilpon lost a fuckload of money, but he's apparently given the ok to go after a big-name free agent this offseason. The Mets are expected to target either Holiday or Lackey.

[Logan]

Great way to screw the franchise more (unless they come cheap, which I doubt). Save the money for next year's FA class.

[BishopMVP]

As surmised after receiving a pick for Wagner, the Red Sox sign Type A Marco Scutaro. 2 years 12.5m, 3rd year option (not sure what type). Not exciting, but not bad. Don't get too excited about that 1st Blue Jay fans - it probably means we're going after another Type A (Holliday swapped with Bay, Lackey, or possibly even one of the relievers.)

[Ronnie Dobbs2]

Option is $6 team, $3 player, $1.5 buyout.

Ambivalent, moving to pleased if this means they go after more Type-As.

[DeToxRox]

The Minayan's predict the end of the Mets playoff chances until 2012.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Ronnie Dobbs2

Option is $6 team, $3 player, $1.5 buyout.

Ambivalent, moving to pleased if this means they go after more Type-As.

Hmm, methinks you guys are overthinking the Type A stuff. I don't think the Red Sox care that much about that when it comes to the big time free agents. If a Lackey or a Holliday want to come, no draft pick is going to stop the Sox from offering them a deal. Signing Scutaro doesn't really change that.

If anything, Scutaro isn't the precursor to anything; it's the aftermath. Scutaro, being a Type A, is the result of the Wagner signing. Knowing they were receiving an even better pick from the Braves, the Red Sox cared less that they dealt away their top pick with the Scutaro signing (which they probably are going to give up anyway because of an actual major Type A signing).

I do think the Scutaro signing indicates the Red Sox aren't going to go after Gonzalez or Halladay. You could sign a guy who does at least in the ballpark of what Scutaro does but not a Type A, so signing Scutaro shows a lack of concern about farm depth. Which tells me the Red Sox don't think they're going to pull off a Gonzalez or Halladay deal, because that would impact their farm depth. If they thought a deal was remotely likely, they would be more picky with their picks.

[Ronnie Dobbs2]

Originally Posted by Chief Rum

Hmm, methinks you guys are overthinking the Type A stuff. I don't think the Red Sox care that much about that when it comes to the big time free agents. If a Lackey or a Holliday want to come, no draft pick is going to stop the Sox from offering them a deal. Signing Scutaro doesn't really change that.

I agree that if a Lackey or a Holliday want to come then draft pick compensation is irrelevant.

If a Scutaro wants to come, however, I do think it is relevant. He doesn't offer so much that his value dwarfs the value lost from the pick. If you tried to monetize the value of such a first round pick (I've seen studies that have put such picks at $5m to $7m) then it is certainly relevant in this case. Not only are the Sox outlaying the $12.5m+ for Scutaro, but they have also lost the value of the pick.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Ronnie Dobbs2

I agree that if a Lackey or a Holliday want to come then draft pick compensation is irrelevant.

If a Scutaro wants to come, however, I do think it is relevant. He doesn't offer so much that his value dwarfs the value lost from the pick. If you tried to monetize the value of such a first round pick (I've seen studies that have put such picks at $5m to $7m) then it is certainly relevant in this case. Not only are the Sox outlaying the $12.5m+ for Scutaro, but they have also lost the value of the pick.

Oh, I certainly get that. I'm just not following the logic of "Sign Scutaro" == "Going after more Type A's".

Unless people mean more Type A's that shouldn't really be Type A's (not top end guys), but why get excited about that?

[Ronnie Dobbs2]

It doesn't equal going after more Type As, but as a Sox fan it makes signing a non-impact Type A (Scutaro) more tolerable.

[Ronnie Dobbs2]

Rosenthal tweets:

M's on verge of signing Figgins. Two sides very close. Four years, $36 million range

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Ronnie Dobbs2

Rosenthal tweets:

If this is true, bummer to lose such a key clubhouse guy, and Figgy's skills aren't reproduced as often in the league now as bombers like Bay.

That said, I'm happier seeing him go to the M's than one of the big, big clubs. I would have been happiest to see him go to a non-AL West, non-big club, though.

The Angels have been more or less headed down the road to putting Wood at 3B in 2010 for a while now, and Aybar can at least be a passable leadoff hitter, even if he doesn't draw nearly as many walks as he should (but then, Figgy didn't used to either until this past season).

[dawgfan]

Figgins makes a lot of sense for the M's due to his defensive versatility, being a switch-hitter and adding more on-base skills to the lineup. I'm bummed to see Beltre go, but Figgins is a good replacement option and makes the roster more flexible.

[sterlingice]

Wow. $9M per year for Figgins? That seems like a lot at first blush, but Z seems like one of the sharpest GMs out there so maybe I'll have to re-examine my thoughts.

SI

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by dawgfan

Figgins makes a lot of sense for the M's due to his defensive versatility, being a switch-hitter and adding more on-base skills to the lineup. I'm bummed to see Beltre go, but Figgins is a good replacement option and makes the roster more flexible.

You'll really like him on a personal level, dawgfan. He's always been a good guy, a guy you root for. And he has really improved, a plus defender at 3B and 2B, and he could play SS or any OF spot as well and not embarass himself. Plus, the speed, of course, and his growth as a more patient hitter now. He turned himself from a slap hitter with speed to an elite level leadoff guy.

Him and Ichiro would be a fantastic 1-2 punch for the M's.

[jbergey22]

Twins better get their activity level up a bit or they will force Mauer right out of town. From everything I have heard Mauers biggest concern in staying in Minnesota is whether or not they will be able to put him in a situation to win. Standing by and watching other teams makes moves the offseason before moving into a new stadium isnt exactly confincing.

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by sterlingice

Wow. $9M per year for Figgins? That seems like a lot at first blush, but Z seems like one of the sharpest GMs out there so maybe I'll have to re-examine my thoughts.

SI

Actually, that's slightly under projections for him. The comparable deal has been Pierre, who got $10-11 M for four years. Furcal also got a similar deal. If you want to go players who aren't Dodgers and go back a few years, you have Damon's deal with the Yanks. It's pushed a little higher, of course, because the Yanks commonly over-spent to get a guy off of the market, plus Damon has more power than those others, but he also had less speed or defensive ability.

$9 M is probably about market value, taking into consideration a slight drop due to the economic downturn.