A Wererolf, a Vampire, and a Villager Walk Into a Bar (Game Over, Vampires Win)

[LoneStarGirl]

Bro trick your vote is wasted don’t you think?

[Telle]

Originally Posted by LoneStarGirl

Are we at a tie now? I see what Telle is saying but what are the odds of Bhlloy magically appearing tomorrow to play??

If he never shows up and EF doesn't do anything about it, we always have the option of taking him out later. Doing it now makes no sense.

[britrock88]

Originally Posted by GoldenEagle

Wait, what’s the vote count?

[RendeR]

currently with Telle leading the bandwagon on me its bhlloy 4 and 2 for me.

[GoldenEagle]

Ok, sorry. I missed the fact that britrock switched his vote.

[britrock88]

Not laughing at you GE; just laughing at that post sequence.

[GoldenEagle]

Originally Posted by britrock88

Not laughing at you GE; just laughing at that post sequence.

No I was just confused. Pretty rusty hand all.

[RendeR]

TIme.......

[Autumn]

Missed the last half hour due to kids. But I feel good about my vote on Henry. The push to make a move away from him was suspicious in my mind. If no one knows nothing, why not simply vote Henry and avoid a tie, rather than pushing Render?

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by LoneStarGirl

Are we at a tie now? I see what Telle is saying but what are the odds of Bhlloy magically appearing tomorrow to play??

And to answer this question, I would say odds are pretty good. Fairly common in my experience for someone to miss Day 1 and then show up saying they hadn't realized we'd started.

[RendeR]

Originally Posted by Autumn

Missed the last half hour due to kids. But I feel good about my vote on Henry. The push to make a move away from him was suspicious in my mind. If no one knows nothing, why not simply vote Henry and avoid a tie, rather than pushing Render?

This is also a valid point.

[Telle]

I don't remember.. is it ok to discuss the vote between when voting ended and when the result is posted? And is the night kill posted at the same time as the vote result, or is that the next morning? Just can't remember if we're supposed to wait to see who's still alive to discuss such things

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by Autumn

Missed the last half hour due to kids. But I feel good about my vote on Henry. The push to make a move away from him was suspicious in my mind. If no one knows nothing, why not simply vote Henry and avoid a tie, rather than pushing Render?

I say this as someone who also has his vote on henry. But there is value in a close vote, if not a tie. The voting information we gain is potentially invaluable.

I'm not even really against a tie on a Day 1 where we know nothing.

[Telle]

Well since everyone else is talking about the vote still, I guess it's ok.

Originally Posted by Autumn

Missed the last half hour due to kids. But I feel good about my vote on Henry. The push to make a move away from him was suspicious in my mind. If no one knows nothing, why not simply vote Henry and avoid a tie, rather than pushing Render?

Well once britrock moved there then was a tie. My moving back over to Render removed that possibility. I don't have any idea one way or the other on henry yet, but don't have a good feeling about Render.

[RendeR]

Originally Posted by Telle

don't have a good feeling about Render.

You might have mentioned this 17 years ago....

[Telle]

Originally Posted by RendeR

You might have mentioned this 17 years ago....

The feeling just arose over the past day or so.

[RendeR]

I always thought my randomness intrigued you?

[henry296]

If Bhlloy turns up bad, it makes telle look really bad.

[Chief Rum]

Shoot, was hoping to see something by now. I have to go on my walk before the sun is completely gone. See you guys in an hour.

[Telle]

Originally Posted by henry296

If Bhlloy turns up bad, it makes telle look really bad.

I'm doubting he will, only because the push for the illogical action of voting for him seemed a bit much for me.

[RendeR]

Originally Posted by Telle

I'm doubting he will, only because the push for the illogical action of voting for him seemed a bit much for me.

You need to stop using the word logic, there is nothing logical in your choices, I've already shown that.

[Telle]

Originally Posted by RendeR

You need to stop using the word logic, there is nothing logical in your choices, I've already shown that.

No, you've shown your ability to try to steer people away from logic.

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by Telle

I don't remember.. is it ok to discuss the vote between when voting ended and when the result is posted? And is the night kill posted at the same time as the vote result, or is that the next morning? Just can't remember if we're supposed to wait to see who's still alive to discuss such things

This is a good point. I don't think EF specified in the rules, but it's probably good form not to either way.

[RendeR]

I think he forgot us.....

[Chief Rum]

Hmm... hope EF is okay.

[EagleFan]

I apologize. Was a weird night, my mother is back in the hospital with bad creatinine (sp?) levels. Was with my brother and sister much of the evening then it was late and this slipped my mind.

Can we push day one back to Wednesday evening?

[RendeR]

Speaking for myself, absolutely my friend. Take care of you and yours. Hope she gets better quickly.

[timmae]

@Eaglefan: Not a problem at all... hope things improve on your side. I can't imagine. Thoughts are with you and your family. Take the time you need.

[henry296]

No worries. Hope your mom gets better soon.

Maybe that will give Bhlloy a chance to show up.

[Telle]

Yes, definitely. Real life is way more important than werewolf. Healing thoughts to your mom and much love to you and your family.

[britrock88]

Of course, EF.

Just to be clear, we're interpreting this to mean that last night was not the deadline? (The alternative would be that we're waiting 24 hours for night processing.)

[LoneStarGirl]

Good luck Eaglefan!

[LoneStarGirl]

Good luck EagleFan!

Or are you stalling so our 10th player has a chance to arrive?

[Autumn]

No worries, EF.

So this should be interesting to analyze. Everyone assumed that was a real deadline so we'll get two deadlines of data out of this day.

Now that we know how the vote ended up, what do we learn (granted we don't know anyone's allegiance yet). I felt there was some reluctance to go to Henry as an easy way to avoid a tie. I always feel like votes for inactives are good places for bad guys to bury a vote, though not necessarily lead that charge. It really depends a lot on the roles in game. If there's only 2 bad guys, or there are more than two but on separate teams, it's hard to find evidence in the vote.

[Telle]

Originally Posted by britrock88

Just to be clear, we're interpreting this to mean that last night was not the deadline? (The alternative would be that we're waiting 24 hours for night processing.)

The title of the game was updated to include "(Day 1 - 4/29 10 PM EST)", so that should mean that yes we have a new deadline for Day 1.

[timmae]

Originally Posted by Autumn

No worries, EF.

So this should be interesting to analyze. Everyone assumed that was a real deadline so we'll get two deadlines of data out of this day.

Now that we know how the vote ended up, what do we learn (granted we don't know anyone's allegiance yet). I felt there was some reluctance to go to Henry as an easy way to avoid a tie. I always feel like votes for inactives are good places for bad guys to bury a vote, though not necessarily lead that charge. It really depends a lot on the roles in game. If there's only 2 bad guys, or there are more than two but on separate teams, it's hard to find evidence in the vote.

I second this thought... any push to lynch bhlloy is very suspect in my mind. Those pushing thoughts, feedback, conclusions, hypothesis, etc are many times those working in favor of the ?good" team. Obviously using implied thinking the "baddies" would use that to their advantage also but that can only be sussed out on later days.

There may be a connection between Telle and Henry but I need to dig into it more.. going off of my recollection it may have seemed too obvious in my first pass through.

[britrock88]

Originally Posted by britrock88

As of #146:

bhlloy 4 (henry, GE, render, LSG)
henry 3 (autumn, timmae, CR)
render 2 (britrock, telle)

This remains true as of #183.

bhlloy 4 (henry, GE, render, LSG)
henry 3 (autumn, timmae, CR)
render 2 (britrock, telle)

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by Telle

I'm open to options but we're running out of time. I'm still good with voting for RendeR

I can't remember how to multiquote so i'm doing this manually. But this is what I find unusual. Here Telle points out that time is limited--her vote is on Henry at this point but she is reminding that RendeR is an option.

Keep in mind that Telle only voted RendeR in the beginning as what I took to be a joke Day 1 vote. There's no particular reason to go back to him, no one has noted anything suspicious about him. if Telle is a good guy she knows nothing more about RendeR than the rest of us, nor about Henry, so is suggesting moving off of one unknown to another unknown, to avoid a tie with an inactive unknown.

Originally Posted by britrock88

Let's make it funky!

UNVOTE bhlloy
VOTE RendeR

Britrock then quotes Telle's post above and moves off of bhlloy for RendeR, who at that point has 0 votes. If the goal is "making it funky" that certainly works in that it confuses the matter near deadline rather than consolidating. If the concern is not voting off an inactive player, this doesn't necessarily help as no one is voting RendeR. However, Brit knows Telle seems eager to switch, and she does.

All of this seems unusual for people who if good guys know nothing about any of these targets. Now, I will grant that A) there is no significant reason to vote Henry, as I started the vote on him only due to the slightest suspicion and B) there is probably 0 chance that Telle, Henry and Britrock are all on the same bad guy team given our numbers, so some percentage of this between 33 and 100% is coincidence. But it's what's interested me so far.

[EagleFan]

On for a few. Thanks for all the kind words.

We still have no idea what is going on. The nurse keeps giving us positive sounding messages but the test results aren't positive sounding so I don't know if we have an overly optimistic nurse that we are talking with or if they were told to be extra positive during this quarantine when talking to families.

The test results show what would be considered a 90% kidney failure and the options listed for that are dialysis or transplant but that isn't the way the nurse is making it sound. Also, the idea that they had someone stationed with her through the entire evening doesn't sound like something they would do if things were fine. She also wouldn't have been rushed to the hospital and pre-admitted if things were fine.

Sorry, just running through all the thoughts in my head. We have seen a major mental and physical decline in her over the past year so we are generally mentally preparing ourselves for worst case scenario so hearing positive news is good but we don't want it to be false positive news and then have the rug pulled out from under us.

Sorry, rambling a bit.

[timmae]

My gut tells me one of render/telle are on the "bad" side of the ledger. If one flips good the other is likely bad. It could be their assertive stance towards each other. Is something truly there? Or did one forget to take the wash out of the washer yesterday?! Or, maybe they are both on the evil side. Who knows.. it's early yet.

[EagleFan]

As of post 190:

bhlloy 4 - henry296 (108), GoldenEagle (112), RendeR (116), LoneStarGirl (125)
henry296 3 - Autumn (82), timmae (93), Chief Rum (113)
RendeR 2 - britrock88 (142), Telle (145)

Yet to vote: bhlloy

Yet to check in: bhlloy

[EagleFan]

Posted the order of actions in the rules as well. For the night actions they will be as follows (if the associated roles exist):

1) Any watch/scan
2) Count conversion
3) Villager Attack
4) Vampire Attack
5) Heal
6) Convert Action

[timmae]

"if the associated roles exist"... darn you EF!

[bhlloy]

Sorry guys, I had no idea this was going on. Checking in and getting caught up now.

[EagleFan]

As of post 194:

bhlloy 4 - henry296 (108), GoldenEagle (112), RendeR (116), LoneStarGirl (125)
henry296 3 - Autumn (82), timmae (93), Chief Rum (113)
RendeR 2 - britrock88 (142), Telle (145)

Yet to vote: bhlloy

[bhlloy]

Originally Posted by britrock88

Some interesting roles in here. Everything's a little confusing because of the reversal of villager/wolf dynamics.

The wolf roles have either been explained or make sense enough. As for the baddies...

The Vengeful Villager (EF, not sure how you missed that opportunity ) appears to be a brutal. The Vanilla Villager is ... vanilla. There is no hint as to what the Villagers' actions might include.

The Count has a conversion mechanic, like a cult leader. Any converted wolf (cultist) would appear to be super-powerful. No clues as to any ability a Vanilla Vampire might have.

So, reading through this, I'm not sure how powerful the bad-guy teams are...

This strikes me as the best analysis so far. I'm not sure how it makes me feel about BR, because it's the kinda post that can have a nugget in that if it exposes something true about the baddies helps build trust and can be pointed , but I think I agree with it. Feels like the Vampires have to be in the game because otherwise I don't see a path to much happening in terms of NKs.

I'm around, feel free to ask me questions. I've got no incentive to tie it up, but would like to see the votes move around a bit more.

No reason for this, other than not tying it up and being the other option right now

vote RendeR

[bhlloy]

sorry, hit post too soon - meant to say "can be pointed to later"

[bhlloy]

"Ties - We never like ties... what will happen in the event of a tie? Try one to find out... " - I'm good with staying away from this given the wording, even if it was to save me from the vote. Doubly so given the unique setup and the presence of a Vampire team

[Telle]

Originally Posted by timmae

My gut tells me one of render/telle are on the "bad" side of the ledger. If one flips good the other is likely bad.

My gut tells me similar, and I know I'm on the side of good.

[EagleFan]

As of post 199:

bhlloy 4 - henry296 (108), GoldenEagle (112), RendeR (116), LoneStarGirl (125)
henry296 3 - Autumn (82), timmae (93), Chief Rum (113)
RendeR 3 - britrock88 (142), Telle (145), bhlloy (196)