What will the outcome be of the mid terms?

[Ksyrup]

Boebert in some trouble. Darn.

[larrymcg421]

AZ and PA looking good for Dems right now. It those hold, then the Senate would come down to NV and GA. Dems would need to win 1 of 2.

[Lathum]

Psaki looking very bronzed...

[Swaggs]

I’m confused in comparing this to the “red mirage” of 2020 because it seems like the Dems are jumping out to some unexpected leads tonight.

[Lathum]

If Boebert loses, wow...

[larrymcg421]

Spanberger's district is R+6. What an amazing hold by her.

[GrantDawg]

Maybe some of these polls were made-up B.S.

Trafalgar's last CO poll had Bennet up only 1.5% but at the moment he's winning by 17% with 61% of the vote in...hmmmm https://t.co/W5558Gx94E

— Tommy Vietor (@TVietor08) November 9, 2022

[Ksyrup]

I laughed loudly when I read a tweet that said - "Imagine being the person assigned to explaining all of this to Walker."

[GrantDawg]

Red ripple -> blue…ocean breeze? Spray of Lysol?

— Conor Sen (@conorsen) November 9, 2022

[cuervo72]

Walker probably thinks a run-off involves a 40-yard dash.

[Ksyrup]

Beto O'Rourke seems like a genuinely good guy who lives in absolutely the wrong state to try to win a statewide election.

[GrantDawg]

Can't find a Fetterman. Looks like he is in good shape to beat Oz.

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

Beto O'Rourke seems like a genuinely good guy who lives in absolutely the wrong state to try to win a statewide election.

Why in the world didn't he try a congressional run? Or maybe a major city Mayor?

[Solecismic]

No red wave at all, especially when you consider normal midterm behavior. Ohio Senate is going to be very close - might even give Ryan an edge if the percentage reporting is accurate.

[stevew]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

Why in the world didn't he try a congressional run? Or maybe a major city Mayor?

He was a rep at one point.

[stevew]

I’m hoping Josh Shapiro’s lead holds. I like that guy a lot and he will be a great firewall vs the crazies.

[GrantDawg]

Likely Walker win, but possible runoff:

Based on trends, here's what's outstanding in Georgia:
~50,000 net Warnock in Fulton
~50,000 net Warnock in DeKalb
~18,000 net Warnock in Gwinnett
~23,000 net Walker in Walton
~15,000 net Walker in Forsyth
~8,000 net Walker in Cherokee
Several more small red counties for Walker

— Brendan Keefe (@BrendanKeefe) November 9, 2022

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by stevew

I’m hoping Josh Shapiro’s lead holds. I like that guy a lot and he will be a great firewall vs the crazies.

They have already called that race for Shapiro.

[JPhillips]

Fetterman is outperforming Biden in 17 of the 18 PA counties that are fully in.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by stevew

I’m hoping Josh Shapiro’s lead holds. I like that guy a lot and he will be a great firewall vs the crazies.

His win was maybe the most predictable of all, other than the stupid obvious ones

[Solecismic]

Originally Posted by Solecismic

No red wave at all, especially when you consider normal midterm behavior. Ohio Senate is going to be very close - might even give Ryan an edge if the percentage reporting is accurate.

Quoting myself: ABC just called it for Vance. I guess the map I saw which showed the vast majority of precincts not in yet were in Cleveland, Columbus, Cincinnati and Toledo was not the current situation.

[NobodyHere]

Originally Posted by Solecismic

Quoting myself: ABC just called it for Vance. I guess the map I saw which showed the vast majority of precincts not in yet were in Cleveland, Columbus, Cincinnati and Toledo was not the current situation.

[PilotMan]

I want to see how strong the gerrymandering is this election year. How much more does a R vote count than a D vote? And has that changed since the last election?

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by PilotMan

I want to see how strong the gerrymandering is this election year. How much more does a R vote count than a D vote? And has that changed since the last election?

There has definitely been a slant, but Florida was biggest mover. Several other states end up not having shifted as far as the GOP hoped.

[Ksyrup]

KY rejected an amendment that would have affirmed no right to abortion in the state constitution. There will be a state supreme court hearing in a week to decide how to handle lawsuits against the current law outlawing abortion and they've said the people's voice will weigh in their decision. Possible the legislature will be limited on how far they can roll back abortion rights.

[larrymcg421]

There's not enough left for Warnock to win. Only hope now is for a runoff.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by Solecismic

No red wave at all, especially when you consider normal midterm behavior. Ohio Senate is going to be very close - might even give Ryan an edge if the percentage reporting is accurate.

I think you are right. It's not the worse case that Dems were fearing.

I'm very interested in the analysis of demographics, key issue etc. in the following weeks (e.g. women voting, Gen-Z voting, Hispanic breakdown etc.).

Congrats to Brian Kemp. I don't view him as an absolute pariah as he is not a Trumper.

The competitive race that Walker is running ... WTF. And no, I don't blame the Libertarian candidate, he has every right to run and get the votes he gets. I do hope it goes to a run-off.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

There has definitely been a slant, but Florida was biggest mover. Several other states end up not having shifted as far as the GOP hoped.

If I had to pick between Santis or Trump, I'd go with Santis.

I can see him running in 2024. I can see him beating Trump. But obviously a long ways to go.

[Ksyrup]

Tonight seems to be yet another off-ramp for the GOP from the Trump lunacy that I assume they will not take.

[Solecismic]

The last run of votes has Vance up 280,000. Ryan could get back half of that easily, but I no longer see the path to winning, unless there are a lot of absentee votes out.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Solecismic

The last run of votes has Vance up 280,000. Ryan could get back half of that easily, but I no longer see the path to winning, unless there are a lot of absentee votes out.

Ryan conceded

[stevew]

Originally Posted by Lathum

His win was maybe the most predictable of all, other than the stupid obvious ones

I don’t take anything for granted with all the Q zealots here.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by Solecismic

Quoting myself: ABC just called it for Vance. I guess the map I saw which showed the vast majority of precincts not in yet were in Cleveland, Columbus, Cincinnati and Toledo was not the current situation.

FWIW, I enjoyed the Hillbilly Elegy movie.

[Solecismic]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

Tonight seems to be yet another off-ramp for the GOP from the Trump lunacy that I assume they will not take.

Yeah. I am so sick of the Trump lunacy. And the way primaries go, he'll win if he runs, because as Jeb Bush pointed out, they are not designed to encourage serious candidates.

Even if I were a Republican, I'd have to point out that he had four years to not only make American great again, but save the world, save the cheerleader and maybe even the entire Solar System... but here we still are, in need of saving.

The stuff with DeSantis and Vance this week... who does that? It's all about him. It's always all about him and no one else.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

Likely Walker win, but possible runoff:

Walker's lead is slowly decreasing, now at 49.2% vs 48.8% with 82% counted. I do think it'll be a run-off.

[Jas_lov]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

Tonight seems to be yet another off-ramp for the GOP from the Trump lunacy that I assume they will not take.

I hope it also means the end of all the election pollsters and prognosticators. They haven't been right about much these past 6 years. That Trafalgar guy appears to have been wrong about everything and 538 took his polls seriously.

[Edward64]

I've been flipping between ABC, CBS and CNN. I've not seen any provide stats on % of people voting.

Anyone know if there has been more, same, or less than last?

[Ksyrup]

Looks like Madison Cawthorn-lite Bo Hines is going to lose. Unfortunately Boebert may squeak by as everything left to count leans heavily for her.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by PilotMan

I want to see how strong the gerrymandering is this election year. How much more does a R vote count than a D vote? And has that changed since the last election?

Depends on the state. Florida ignored their Supreme Court and just made up the laws themselves so they got a few seats from that.

It'll likely be a 3-4% Democrat win in total vote but a slight majority for Republicans. It's the state house races which are really bad. Wisconsin will have a Republican supermajority but basically split the vote 50/50. Kind of tough to call that state much of a democracy anymore.

[RainMaker]

Still early but feels like a bad night for Trump. Most of his candidates got beat or underperformed. Desantis cleaned up in Florida after being bashed by Trump a day before the election.

I still don't think Desantis wins a primary against Trump because he's a coward but it sort of feels like he'd own the party if Trump stepped back.

[Lathum]

I'm seeing almost zero coverage of the Arizona governor race and you would hink that would be a huge one.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

I hope we'll eventually see exit polling that shows how GOP women voted. If things stay the way they look now I'd bet a lot of them stayed registered for the GOP but voted to some degree for Dems.

I've always figured that was where some of the seemingly weird split vote (Kemp for Gov / Warnock for Senate) in Georgia was coming from.

The weakest part of the (alleged) GOP in Georgia is women in the non-inner city 5-county core around Atlanta, farther away from Atlanta into the suburbs/exurbs you go the more they vote like the rest of the party membership.

Tennis wives, basically.

[Ksyrup]

Originally Posted by Solecismic

Yeah. I am so sick of the Trump lunacy. And the way primaries go, he'll win if he runs, because as Jeb Bush pointed out, they are not designed to encourage serious candidates.

Even if I were a Republican, I'd have to point out that he had four years to not only make American great again, but save the world, save the cheerleader and maybe even the entire Solar System... but here we still are, in need of saving.

The stuff with DeSantis and Vance this week... who does that? It's all about him. It's always all about him and no one else.

Trump cares about no one but himself. On a night where he came out a loser, he's on TruthSocial gloating about the GOP candidates in CO and NH losing because they refused the election denial track or backtracked on it.

He's a small, petty POS.

[larrymcg421]

Nickel over Hines in NC-13 is pretty stunning.

[Ksyrup]

A small town KY mayor's race ended 55-55 and the winner eas determined by coin flip.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by larrymcg421

Nickel over Hines in NC-13 is pretty stunning.

Overturning Roe seems to have helped a lot of candidates.

[larrymcg421]

Definitely the worst midterm performance from an out of power party since 2002.

[Ksyrup]

I wonder if anyone is going to do an in-depth analysis of COVID deaths and relate them to specific counties/states by R/D. I know the general consensus is a net loss of Rs across the country but I wonder how many of them might have translated into some congressional losses.

[larrymcg421]

I still think the GOP will take the House, but man, if the Boebert seat is the tipping point, that would be so glorious.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

Fetterman is outperforming Biden in 17 of the 18 PA counties that are fully in.

Fascinating to see the different tactics taken in Pennsylvania and Florida by Democrats and which one is succeeding.