The Stock Market thread

[NobodyHere]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

It is the equivalent of $15/hour and then they have to pay a massive COBRA bill. God forbid they get a few bucks as we bail out every billion dollar company that didn't plan for risk.

Will never understand the contempt people have for those in poor economic situations.

2 Wrong economic policies don't make a right now.

Just because someone argues against a stupid economic policy doesn't mean they have contempt for any certain group.

[RainMaker]

It is not bad economic policy to provide unemployment benefits to people who lost their job and likely won't be able to get a new one for awhile and are stuck with COBRA bills. $15/hour with no health insurance is barely at the poverty line for a family.

How could anyone be upset with that? Especially since these people paid unemployment insurance.

[thesloppy]

To be fair, it's $15/hr on top of your state benefits. I'm getting $500 per week from Oregon and $600 per week from the feds, equivalent to $27.50/hr.

I'm certainly not complaining or discouraging it, as it's keeping me close to my previous income, and I don't quite understand why unemployment benefits are mandated so low in the first place, but to a lot of young people in the service industries that probably is significantly more than they've ever made in their lives.

[NobodyHere]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

How could anyone be upset with that? Especially since these people paid unemployment insurance.

It's quite easy to be upset with a system that pays people more not to work than it does to pay most people who do work.

Also not everyone paid in. The CARES act made people eligible for unemployment who weren't paying unemployment insurance.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by NobodyHere

It's quite easy to be upset with a system that pays people more not to work than it does to pay most people who do work.

Also not everyone paid in. The CARES act made people eligible for unemployment who weren't paying unemployment insurance.

Large businesses have gotten massive help from the fed to keep their stock prices high and are dipping into a multi-trillion dollar slush fund. Small businesses have access to a loan program that will pay their employees and rent with complete forgiveness.

But the problem is people who got fired getting some extra money for a few months when they are unlikely to find a job for a long time.

If a company offering the security of a job can't compete with a few months of unemployment, maybe their offer is shit and they should pay more.

[RainMaker]

It is just weird that people are upset with the $250 billion in UI benefits in the CARES Act and not the $2 trillion that is going to companies. Pretty sure the employers aren't the one's getting the short straw here.

[thesloppy]

I like to think there's a significant amount of folks that could/would use that extra few thousand dollars they've never had to get a better job and/or prospects via a new (to them) vehicle, place to live, access to child-care, etc. That money is going to get turned back over into the economy practically immediately, relative to corporate bailouts. Folks who improve their situation will be contributing more to the economy, thanks to that payout....having said that, I honestly don't know how to balance that kind of wishful thinking with 20-30% unemployment. That's not "and everybody's getting raises too!!" territory.

[stevew]

They should probably talk to some of those red states with such shitty unemployment insurance. Lose your 80k a year job in Florida and you’re getting like 275$/Wk for 12 weeks and then it’s bootstraps time!

[thesloppy]

For sure, Florida's UI benefits are insane.

There's not a ton of apparent rhyme or reason to a lot of the state maximums. Florida is $275/wk, California is $450/wk, Minnesota is $740/wk and Massachusetts tops out at $820-$1200/wk with dependants. That's a hell of a lot of spread. Certainly you can see adjusting for cost of living, but you think of that a fractional difference, as opposed to 300-400%.

2020 Maximum Weekly Unemployment Benefits By State | $aving to Invest

Just another example of our barely functioning safety net that covid has laid bare.

[NobodyHere]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

It is just weird that people are upset with the $250 billion in UI benefits in the CARES Act and not the $2 trillion that is going to companies. Pretty sure the employers aren't the one's getting the short straw here.

Do you really pretend that no one is complaining about corporate bailouts?

[albionmoonlight]

If UBI does not gain a lot of support after COVID, then it never will.

Don't give people money for "not working." Give people money regardless of how much they have and whether they are working. That provides a safety net while not discouraging productive behavior.

[albionmoonlight]

And, yes, I am aware of the arguments against UBI.

I just think that the arguments in favor of it are better.

It's not a slam dunk case, but I do think that there's a right answer here.

[Flasch186]

my problem with UUBI is the fact that it'll drive up inflation as well so it'll be like chasing smoke to affect people's $ in hand with it.

[NobodyHere]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

If UBI does not gain a lot of support after COVID, then it never will.

Don't give people money for "not working." Give people money regardless of how much they have and whether they are working. That provides a safety net while not discouraging productive behavior.

I tend to lean this way for stimulus monies.

For the 3 trillion dollars Democrats recently proposed, you could give every adult 2k/month every month through election day.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by NobodyHere

Do you really pretend that no one is complaining about corporate bailouts?

So what do you think we should do? Government botched the response so bad that the whole country had to go into lockdown and a ton of people lost their jobs. Regular unemployment doesn't cut it when you are likely going to be out of work for a long time.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by Flasch186

my problem with UUBI is the fact that it'll drive up inflation as well so it'll be like chasing smoke to affect people's $ in hand with it.

Deflation is a far bigger threat than inflation right now.

[bob]

Why deflation? I don't see prices dropping on much of anything right now.

[RainMaker]

Lack of demand and older demographics having the disposable income. They just don't spend much. Money velocity is collapsing around the world. We pumped $3 trillion in and M2 velocity is down 40%. Global debt and banks tightening up credit don't help either.

Deflation can lead to inflation down the road, but that's an issue for another day. And would be good news for this who had to take on debt during this.

Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All Items in U.S. City Average/Average Hourly Earnings of All Employees, Total Private | FRED | St. Louis Fed

[NobodyHere]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

So what do you think we should do? Government botched the response so bad that the whole country had to go into lockdown and a ton of people lost their jobs. Regular unemployment doesn't cut it when you are likely going to be out of work for a long time.

Well like I said before, if you're going to have a stimulus then you might as well do a temporary UBI.

[NobodyHere]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

Deflation is a far bigger threat than inflation right now.

What's the reasoning behind this?

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by NobodyHere

What's the reasoning behind this?

Lack of demand among other things. Long term it can lead to inflation but as long as people are not buying stuff and out of work, deflation is the concern. Core CPI almost always drops during and after recessions.

[QuikSand]

Originally Posted by thesloppy

There's not a ton of apparent rhyme or reason to a lot of the state maximums.

The strongest correlation has got to be with "influence of organized labor," especially those in the building trades. That is the major driving force behind sticking these costs onto employers through trust funds, UI charges, and the like.

Given the deeply political nature of this, you'd think that a functioning US Senate GOP would devise the obvious plan of having the feds "make up the difference" between state benefits and some arbitrary adequate-sounding amount that doesn't seem to threaten employers with this whole "they'll prefer to stay at home" angle. And that way, they could continue the obvious ploy of punishing Americans living in blue states, and rewarding those in red states, more or less, because of their great electoral loyalty. Because that's what we do now.

[Galaril]

Well Hertz is filing for bankruptcy. So I doubt the market is going to be able to ignore the truth for much longer.

[Qwikshot]

Originally Posted by Galaril

Well Hertz is filing for bankruptcy. So I doubt the market is going to be able to ignore the truth for much longer.

Did we really need a Hertz when you can Uber?

Most businesses are working remote so travel isn't as vital to audit, deal or the like.

I also wonder if the unemployment is a grain of truth that we had a surplus of non-essential jobs and through inertia companies were just keeping those positions rather than adapt or innovate. Now that more people are working from home, if at all, companies could determine those essential to run the business and those not essential.

My company has been working 24/7 with 2/3 day onsite and the rest home. We seem to be functioning just fine. It makes me nervous but I try to keep to integral duties so as to be noticed doing work.

[sterlingice]

I dunno - there are a lot of times I prefer to rent a car over uber when I'm on vacation. A place to keep luggage, anytime we travel more than just within a city, etc. Uber more replaces taxis than rental cars.

However, of course, rental cars were allowed to consolidate heavily (and pretty much unregulated) so there were only a couple of companies left: Hertz (Dollar, Thrifty), Enterprise (Alamo, National) and Avis (Budget). So, at most airports, you'd see 7 counters but they were all owned by only 3 companies.

SI

[Qwikshot]

Originally Posted by sterlingice

I dunno - there are a lot of times I prefer to rent a car over uber when I'm on vacation. A place to keep luggage, anytime we travel more than just within a city, etc

SI

I suppose but don't most hotels offer a limo service? (I think Disney does).

[Ben E Lou]

When I am traveling for work, I have zero interest in any sort of Uber type service. If I want to stop between the airport and my hotel for dinner, I can. If I decide I want to stop between the client site and my hotel I can. If I get done early one day and just want to go sightseeing, I can. If at six in the morning I discover that the hotel’s breakfast buffet sucks and I want to go out to breakfast, I can. In that circumstance, I have no interest in adding the extra layer of effort required to connect with a rideshare. I’ve had exactly one trip – the time I met QuikSand – when three of us went to a client site together and someone else had the rental car. Drove me crazy.

#ControlFreak

[NobodyHere]

Uber should merge with Hertz.


Then you can call for an Uber-Hertz!

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by NobodyHere

Uber should merge with Hertz.

Then you can call for an Uber-Hertz!

Nice one.

But no big loss. Lots of other competitors and one less is eh.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Qwikshot

I suppose but don't most hotels offer a limo service? (I think Disney does).

They do but that just brings you from the airport to the hotel and back. Someplace like Disney is easy because they have so many transportation options within the park.

On a regular vacation it would be maddening to have to Uber everywhere. Especially with kids who may need carseats, etc...To me Uber is great if you are going to dinner and back and want to drink, etc...but on vacation for me it is a must to have a rental and not be at the mercy of a ride share.

The only exception is a place like Disney, or Vegas with the boys, stuff like that.

[bhlloy]

Originally Posted by Ben E Lou

When I am traveling for work, I have zero interest in any sort of Uber type service. If I want to stop between the airport and my hotel for dinner, I can. If I decide I want to stop between the client site and my hotel I can. If I get done early one day and just want to go sightseeing, I can. If at six in the morning I discover that the hotel’s breakfast buffet sucks and I want to go out to breakfast, I can. In that circumstance, I have no interest in adding the extra layer of effort required to connect with a rideshare. I’ve had exactly one trip – the time I met QuikSand – when three of us went to a client site together and someone else had the rental car. Drove me crazy.

#ControlFreak

Yeah, I'd agree with all of this. Work travel without a rental car is awful and works out way more expensive as well. Assuming I'm not eating at the shitty hotel buffet (if there is one) I'm doing minimum 4 Uber trips per day - that adds up in terms of time and money. Adding to that the airport trips probably being minimum $60-80 each way, and the sanity price that I'm going to get a talker or somebody who drives me nuts while I sit in traffic for 1.5 hours, it's an absolute no brainer.

Of course this is assuming business travel is still going to be a thing after COVID, which ya know...

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by Qwikshot

I suppose but don't most hotels offer a limo service? (I think Disney does).

We're not big "destination" vacation people. We get out and around the places we visit. It's pretty common to put 500+ miles on a rental car during vacation.

I'm thinking of trips we took the last 1.5 years.

When we're visiting at Christmas (both years), we fly into O'Hare, visiting friends in Chicago, Rockford, and then all the way to eastern Iowa.
Last year, we went from Minneapolis to northern Minnesota to northern Wisconsin and then back because we had friends to visit at each place.
Last year, we flew to Kansas City but were visiting people in Lawrence, Topeka, and Manhattan.
Last year, we went to a wedding in Cincy (sans 4 year old). We helped shuttle stuff around for the wedding but we could have gotten by with Uber. But we had trips to Kings Island, the Zoo, and visiting PilotMan, all of which would have been more difficult without a car.
Last year, I had a conference in Atlanta - I took mass transit everywhere and didn't have a car.
Last week, we were supposed to visit Florida, but we were flying into Tampa (see a baseball game there and cheaper flight), go to Disney, and then up to Tallahassee to visit a friend and back.

Pretty much all of those require a rental car except the couple noted and that's not even getting into the "you can't get an Uber with a car seat" problem.

SI

[RainMaker]

Hertz is not closing up, they are just filing for bankruptcy. It is also a poorly run company that Avis and Enterprise surpassed.

This is how capitalism should work. You run a shit company and you pay the price.

[Ben E Lou]

Originally Posted by bhlloy

Of course this is assuming business travel is still going to be a thing after COVID, which ya know...

I'm 100% certain that mine will be reduced, and my strong suspicion is that it will be by more than half, if not virtually eliminated. My travel had already dropped significantly in the last 3-4 years because I can do 100% of my job remotely and more of my clients were embracing that fact. The #1 reason I've traveled at all during that time has been because there was some old coot at the Director level or higher at the client site who just couldn't imagine that remote could be anywhere near the quality of face to face, so they were willing to pay a few grand to have me onsite. Those old coots are learning about remote work now, and many of them will opt to cut that expense.

[PilotMan]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

Hertz is not closing up, they are just filing for bankruptcy. It is also a poorly run company that Avis and Enterprise surpassed.

This is how capitalism should work. You run a shit company and you pay the price.

I love how any company that can't handle Covid is a shit, poorly run company. They were doing alright before this hit. A local spa and salon that had been opened for 44 years closed for good yesterday. Must have been poorly run.

[PilotMan]

Originally Posted by sterlingice

We're not big "destination" vacation people. We get out and around the places we visit. It's pretty common to put 500+ miles on a rental car during vacation.

I'm thinking of trips we took the last 1.5 years.

When we're visiting at Christmas (both years), we fly into O'Hare, visiting friends in Chicago, Rockford, and then all the way to eastern Iowa.
Last year, we went from Minneapolis to northern Minnesota to northern Wisconsin and then back because we had friends to visit at each place.
Last year, we flew to Kansas City but were visiting people in Lawrence, Topeka, and Manhattan.
Last year, we went to a wedding in Cincy (sans 4 year old). We helped shuttle stuff around for the wedding but we could have gotten by with Uber. But we had trips to Kings Island, the Zoo, and visiting PilotMan, all of which would have been more difficult without a car.
Last year, I had a conference in Atlanta - I took mass transit everywhere and didn't have a car.
Last week, we were supposed to visit Florida, but we were flying into Tampa (see a baseball game there and cheaper flight), go to Disney, and then up to Tallahassee to visit a friend and back.

Pretty much all of those require a rental car except the couple noted and that's not even getting into the "you can't get an Uber with a car seat" problem.

SI

Heh! All that and I am so glad I made the cut!

[lungs]

Our biggest casualty locally was a cafe style restaurant that the Culver's corporation had hoped to turn into a new chain. It was obvious years ago that the concept was never going to catch on but they kept the original concept cafe going for years. It was OK, but nobody was surprised that Culver's pulled the plug.

[Edward64]

I haven't noticed any local casualties. Of the non-chain, my cleaners, 4-5 restaurants we typically go to, and a regional garden center are still around. But honestly, I wouldn't be surprised if there was a horrendous % of local restaurants that fold if there is a second wave.

[Danny]

Originally Posted by PilotMan

I love how any company that can't handle Covid is a shit, poorly run company. They were doing alright before this hit. A local spa and salon that had been opened for 44 years closed for good yesterday. Must have been poorly run.

I believe Hertz had a going concern noted on a recent audit prior to all the covid stuff, so they were in trouble before all this happened

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by PilotMan

I love how any company that can't handle Covid is a shit, poorly run company. They were doing alright before this hit. A local spa and salon that had been opened for 44 years closed for good yesterday. Must have been poorly run.

Hertz has been run into the ground since it was purchased by private equity over a decade ago. They loaded the company up with debt to pay special dividends to their owners.

When they were offered a lifeline in March of like $500 million, they turned it down thinking this would blow over. They even came out and said they wouldn't look at vehicle debt refinancing which bit them in the ass when the used car market fell off a cliff.

Other rental companies did this stuff and are fine. Hertz has been poorly run for a long time and was going to be in trouble regardless of this. They had lost half their market value over the years and been surpassed by both Avis and Enterprise. They are bankrupt and Avis and Enterprise aren't because of poor decisions.

There is also no comparison between a billion dollar company with access to financing and a fleet of collateral in their back pocket and a family run small business who has no access to those things.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by Danny

I believe Hertz had a going concern noted on a recent audit prior to all the covid stuff, so they were in trouble before all this happened

We must not blame the billion dollar private equity firms who gutted the company before this. Must protect their reputation at all costs. Maybe we can start a GoFundMe.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by PilotMan

I love how any company that can't handle Covid is a shit, poorly run company. They were doing alright before this hit. A local spa and salon that had been opened for 44 years closed for good yesterday. Must have been poorly run.

There's a fair number of companies that have been poorly run for a while (Sears/K-Mart, JC Penney etc.) that IMO should go through the bankruptcy/dissolution process.

But do agree with your sentiment as this coronavirus event was unforseeable and many companies/businesses should be helped through this challenge.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by Edward64

But do agree with your sentiment as this coronavirus event was unforseeable and many companies/businesses should be helped through this challenge.

A pandemic is not unforeseeable. This is not a black swan event.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

A pandemic is not unforeseeable. This is not a black swan event.

Not sure what a black swan event has to do with this?

Sure a pandemic was going to happen sooner or later but could anyone have predicted (1) when it was going to occur and (2) the severity of the impact to any degree of certainty?

Assuming you were CEO of Hertz or (airline), let's hear your ideas on how you would have planned and mitigated for this 2-3-4-5 years ago.

[PilotMan]

Or...you planned for it 5 years ago, and your competitors who didn't put you out of business 2 years ago, because they were able to operate with a better profit margin and could be more aggressive. It's kill or be killed. Take it for what it is....a massive defect of capitalism.

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

A pandemic is not unforeseeable. This is not a black swan event.

This level of worldwide pandemic that affects the entire world hasn't been seen since 1918, though. It's something that 99% of the population hasn't seen in their lifetimes.

SI

[albionmoonlight]

Moderna unveiled encouraging coronavirus vaccine results. Then top execs dumped nearly $30 million of stock

Scandalous sounding headline.

Then you read, and it turns out that automatic options were triggered once the stock hit a certain price.

So, nothing newsworthy happened.

But they got my click. So, good job, CNN. I'm not sure what you're doing anymore, but I guess you get to keep doing it for another day.

[Edward64]

May be a good time to buy a used car from Hertz (or a Boeing jet if you can afford one).

https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/24/busin...ars/index.html

With travelers staying close to home and airports turned into virtual ghost towns, rental car companies have taken a huge hit during the coronavirus pandemic. On Friday Hertz, which also operates the Dollar and Thrifty agencies, declared bankruptcy. Industry experts expect the company to sell off a large portion of its fleet.

And that should bring about some deals car shoppers might very well want to consider, experts say.

Even when we were not in an economic crisis, shoppers could often find a good deal on a used car at one of the major car rental agencies, including Hertz, Avis or Enterprise.

Rental car companies routinely sell off cars, usually after a year or two of service. For instance, Enterprise, which also operates the Alamo and National brands, sells a million used cars a year globally, according to a spokeswoman.

And they often sell these cars online with no-haggle pricing and at a significant discount to other used car sellers.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by Edward64

Not sure what a black swan event has to do with this?

Sure a pandemic was going to happen sooner or later but could anyone have predicted (1) when it was going to occur and (2) the severity of the impact to any degree of certainty?

Assuming you were CEO of Hertz or (airline), let's hear your ideas on how you would have planned and mitigated for this 2-3-4-5 years ago.

I would not have taken on $19 billion in debt so that I could pump out dividends to my private equity cronies.

Hertz has been poorly run since Ford sold them. They have been losing money for years.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

I would not have taken on $19 billion in debt so that I could pump out dividends to my private equity cronies.

Hertz has been poorly run since Ford sold them. They have been losing money for years.

Hindsight is so 20-20. No one is arguing there are some companies that deserve to fail. I said Sears/K-Mart, JC Penney and I have no problem adding Hertz to this list.

Hertz is going bankrupt/reorg because of this coronavirus event. No company would have predicted the timing and severity of this and planned for it. If Hertz did save the $19B, they should have used it to increase customer service and combat against Uber, Lyft and like, not a coronavirus event.