Werewolf VII- Return to XCom

[Schmidty]

Originally Posted by Raiders Army

eh? Was it you who tried to kill me in Werewolf VI? I forgot about what happened in that game since things went so fast and furious. I thought you got killed pretty early in that game as well.

Werewolf V to be precise.

[hoopsguy]

RA, the three that I cited chimed in late when Blade was in danger. I would weight those heavier than the other three. But obviously we have to consider anyone who voted for a proven non-alien.

I don't want to get too far ahead of myself here. We don't know yet that Schmidty wasn't an alien. But when (OK, if I guess) it is revealed that he was in fact a grunt then we need someplace to start. And the guy who got off the hook, plus the people who swung the vote away from him, seem like a logical place to start.

[Raiders Army]

Sounds good to me as a starting point. Of course it could all be a coincidence, but without anything else to go on at this point, it looks good to me.

[Raiders Army]

Dola, going to bed for tonight. I'm gonna lock my door and for all you aliens out there, you'd better be aware that I have a special "MacGuyver"-like trap for you if you attack me.

[Blade6119]

Alright, since this is about me in part i should address his concerns since, if what you say is true as to your role, our roles are one in the same. Firstly, i cant say im sad i wasnt targeted more heavily over the last hour...it allows me to further assist my brothers in this battle against the green bastards(were they even green, idk). Secondly, although i certainly see the pattern your looking at, you have to look at the beginning of the voting too.

Not only were you the FIRST person to vote against me, hence giving you bias to support your caim as to not seem like a vote jumper(typical trait of the guilty), you yourself said it to be a random vote carrying no weight. I wouldn't have been in a close situation coming up to the vote if it had not been for your random voting. Secondly, i was never behind schmidy, and was tied with him for 6 minutes until 2 more votes went through for schmidty, and another a half hour later. If you believe that i can organize a team in 6 minutes to respond, let alone all be on for such a defense, thats outlandish.

Now in my proffesional x-com opinion, hoopsguy very well may be defelcting attention off himself, but ill give him the benefit of the doubt for now as he seems to have positive intentions. First round voting usually follows bandwagon and silent guy voting, both of which fit schmidty. The fact that i was close due to my x-com history shouldnt be held against me.

I think the people who voted alone for someone cannot be discounted. This would be ideal, as it avoids your bandwagon strategizing yet also avoids the silent guy stereotype. The aliens arent going to put themselves in the spotlight, which is what you and i, as well as those who voted for schmidty at the end have done. Without looking, can you tell me people who voted who didnt vote for either of the top two, and better yet who they voted for....exactly.

[Raiders Army]

Originally Posted by Schmidty

Werewolf V to be precise.

Ah...it was my own fault. I got a little too vocal and got hung. I won't make that mistake again...then again, I was pretty vocal in VI at the end as well.

Okay...really going to bed now.

[JeeberD]

Originally Posted by Raiders Army

I got a little too vocal and got hung. I won't make that mistake again...

[Vince]

Interesting that we won't know what his role was until "0900 zulu."

I think that Schmidty's use of the word 'grunt' is fairly telling -- sounds like we hurt our chances a little with that vote. Not sure what to make of hoopsguy's list...but it can't be that bad to look at the people who jumped in at the end.

[Mr. Wednesday]

Hopefully, we can divine some meaning from the vote and the results of the night action. The timing of my vote was innocent, but I don't really expect anybody to believe that just on my say-so.

[Fouts]

Well, I had to vote for someone. I just want to survive this. Technicians aren't very good soldiers, so I may seem a little frazzled at times.

[Neon_Chaos]

Here's to you, Schmidty. After that lengthy explanation from hoopsguy, I am convinced that you're also a grunt. I had a gut feeling that something fishy was going on when those first three votes came piling in for Schmidty, though... it was, however a crapshoot indeed. At least now we have something to go with, and I can start some sort of simple analysis.

I think that the Aliens/Werewolves are generally smarter this time around. Everyone now knows that the late votes are probably going be damning pieces of evidence, and I'm not sure if they're likely to fall for that sandtrap in this game

hoopsguy, your analysis is pretty solid, and it highlights four very obvious choices for Aliens. But, as I've learned from experience, what is obvious isn't necessarily the truth.

What if they're just playing us between two honest XCOM guys in Blade and Schmidty? Think people! Let's not get too caught up with what is obvious, because I have a feeling that we're all being played against each other right now.

Aside from the 'damning' evidence in the last three votes, I'm also going to look at the initial votes that came in, and the early bandwagon votes for Schmidty and Blade6119.

(As to why I am pretty paranoid. I was a finger-pointer in the WW5 game, and apparently all my finger-pointing led to my co-villager's demise. )

[Poli]

I think you're all aliens.

[hoopsguy]

Neon, we still have more data to look at from night actions before going too far down this path. However, I would like to think that we can come up with some way to pull information from the first vote. My feeling on day one is that it is random until it isn't random anymore. At 3-3, I don't think it was random. That isn't to say that the four people I listed are the four aliens ... very doubtful.

As for playing two honest XCOM guys against each other, I was the first one to pull out Blade. If we are going down that line of thinking, then you had better put me on the suspects list. But I'm also the first guy to go public with an identified role here.

A question I'm very interested in has to do with the roles people have come up with so far. I'm having a hard time believing that there are six unique X-Com roles besides the grunt role that Schmidty and I (appear to) share. Which makes me smell BS on some of the major/sgt/pilot/tech/squaddie/etc. It is one thing to try and role-play the game a little bit. But it also potentially acts as a smokescreen when we are trying to identify the roles assigned by SirFozzie.

Here are those roles, identified earlier in the thread:

Self-proclaimed roles:
Peregrine - major
Neon_Chaos - squaddie
JeeberD - sergeant
Coffee Warlord - master sergent
Swaggs - sergeant
Vince - squaddie
Kingfc22 - pilot
Fouts - tech


Identified roles:
Schmidty - grunt
Me - grunt

No indication:
Digamma
Blade
Raiders Army
Qwikshot
Mr. Wednesday

I don't want to wander too far down the path of roles as I think it could be distracting from the original friends of Blade list: Blade, Wednesday, Qwikshot, Fouts. Just some more food for thought when we get the information at 0900.

Edited to correct the number of unique roles in the list.

[Swaggs]

I just said Sergent because that was what I was in GB's X-Com II dynasty. I am fairly certain that several of the others did the same thing.

I, and presumably most others, have not given up my role yet. It is too early for that, in my opinion.

[Blade6119]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Identified roles:
Schmidty - grunt
Me - grunt

Is it just me or does hoopsguy keep trying to point out everyone else, yet continue to over-exclaim how innocent he is and claim to be a grunt. Im not saying hes an alien, he just seems to be trying hard to blame everyone and make himself seem entirely innocent...seems like a lot of inpositioning for a x-com member, but maybe im seeg things

[JeeberD]

Originally Posted by Swaggs

I just said Sergent because that was what I was in GB's X-Com II dynasty. I am fairly certain that several of the others did the same thing.

Yup...

[hoopsguy]

does hoopsguy keep trying to point out everyone else

Up to this point, I have focused on a group of four people, with you in that group. I'm not sure what the right way to protest innocence is in these games, but at this moment I'm not exactly warming up to you. I'm sure it is mutual - particularly if you have tentacles.

Swaggs, Jeebs - that makes perfect sense. I don't think everyone should reveal their roles at this junction. Besides, people might not believe you even if you are telling the truth. But it does add a little bit of confusion if people try to take the self-proclaimed roles at face value.

[Blade6119]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Up to this point, I have focused on a group of four people, with you in that group. I'm not sure what the right way to protest innocence is in these games, but at this moment I'm not exactly warming up to you. I'm sure it is mutual - particularly if you have tentacles.

Yes, the feeling is mutual. Im just not someone who likes to sit idly by and watch someone bully around a group of people while playing the angel role. You criticize others for self-proclaiming roles, then do the same and leave your own name off that list. You then place it under the sure roles along with a dead schmidty. You speak of others smokescreens and are playing a bigger one then any other person i can currently see. I though, unlike you, have kept my head clear when voting and stuck to what i believe to be the right strategy.

You on the other hand, voted on random(my fictional character in GB's dynasty) or off ill-will, while i voted on an exact formula(voting for digamma based on his posting frequency compared to others). It just annoys me to hear you glorify how innocent you are then point others out. You initially claim the group of four, a mere half of the group that defeated your canidate, then just recently pointed out a different group of people for the roles they claimed to have(which appeared to me to be the roles they held in GB's dynasty). Im still not going to say i feel your the right person to vote off currently, but i feel your playing a bully role of "look at the other guy"

[Fouts]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

I don't want to wander too far down the path of roles as I think it could be distracting from the original friends of Blade list: Blade, Wednesday, Qwikshot, Fouts. Just some more food for thought when we get the information at 0900.

Funny, I don't remember supporting Blade. I only remember having to decide between two people and picking the quiet one.

As for my role, yes, I am a research technician who made a huge mistake returning to this god forsaken place. I must have been in a druken stupor to agree to this reunion.

[Blade6119]

ok, for now im going to hold off my little squabble...i apologize to everyone in the game for allowing any emotion into it, i just didnt like the way he was playing, but in the end its just a game. Ill withdraw for awhile, and let him and everyone play the way they want to play. i just want everyone to have a proper insight into things...not just hoopsguy's

[hoopsguy]

I put my name on the list because I know my role. That is the only role I know at that point - I don't know Schmidty for sure is a grunt until tomorrow morning.

If anyone uses my list to help their thought process, I would encourage them to view my self-identified role with the same level of trepidation as I'm viewing the other self-identified roles. On anyone's own internal list, they know exactly what role they play.

Where, exactly, have I failed to keep my head clear when voting? I know you don't like being in the line of fire but I'm curious where my logic is breaking down in your mind.

Just in case I'm not being direct enough, I'm not trying to steer the vote to you (or any of the other three I've been pretty consistent in mentioning) because I voted for you in round one. I'm trying to emphasize that there was late voting action towards a (seemingly) innocent guy and that you benefitted from it. I think that makes for a good place as a starting point for tomorrow. Interestingly enough, I don't see Mr. Wednesday taking as much umbrage to this point of view as you are ... nor Fouts, although I'm going to be naturally suspicious of him from my last werewolf game. I'm trying to work through that issue, however, and look at this logically.

[Blade6119]

without instigating this further, two posts ago you called it the "friends of blade list," and upon every one ive seen you have listed me on top of that list...couple that with you voting for me an i see a need to be defensive...i might be mistaken, but thats how it comes off. Any attempts by me to defend or counter have been due to that viewpoint, that im under attack. You say otherwise, so ill back off...if the roles had been reversed would you have done differently hoops?

[hoopsguy]

if the roles had been reversed would you have done differently hoops?

I don't know, Blade. Obviously it isn't fun being fingered, innocent or guilty.

[Vince]

Yeah, Squaddie is just X-Com lingo for a non-rookie. The first promotion in the video game is to Squaddie, and since I was around at the beginning and near the end of the dynasty (it was my idea, actually ), but not much in the middle, I figured that was appropriate for my 'title.'

[Coffee Warlord]

Alright. Reading through some of this mess....

Point one, yes. I called myself Massah Sergeant because that I was indeed a grizzled old Sarge in the dynasty. Master Sergeant, 'cause, well...I'm a badass and all.

And point two...frankly, I have somewhat of a feeling Blade and Hoopsguy are both on our side. I doubt any werewolf/alien/creature/slimey thing from mars would openly bicker so much this early in the game.

[Blade6119]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

I don't know, Blade. Obviously it isn't fun being fingered, innocent or guilty.

Only one of us knows, as i have hesitated to call you out for i cant say for certain anyone is an alien yet. Im trying to make the right calls instead of the obvious one...another soldier menitoned how the obvious route if often wrong, and im trying to win this for us...cant do that by guessing wrong based off circumstantial voting evidence and the lot...well, at least i cant, but then again im not an alien, so who knows why you can

[Blade6119]

Originally Posted by Coffee Warlord

Point one, yes. I called myself Massah Sergeant because that I was indeed a grizzled old Sarge in the dynasty. Master Sergeant, 'cause, well...I'm a badass and all.

[Mr. Wednesday]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Interestingly enough, I don't see Mr. Wednesday taking as much umbrage to this point of view as you are ...

I just don't see taking a lot of umbrage as being especially productive, at this point. I don't have anything other than my own word to offer for the reason for the timing of my actions -- I maintain that it's innocent, but you have only my word for that. I'm hoping that come morning, we'll be able to combine the votes with the results of the night actions to come up with an appropriate action that doesn't involve turning the defense systems on me.

[Neon_Chaos]

Just finished eating lunch. Whew, read and reread the thread a bit.

hoopsguy, I agree with the whole random until it isn't random thing. And I see that at 3-3, things are pretty suspicious. I'm not one to blatantly point fingers (well, this time around. ), but your list does indeed help make some kind of informed decision.

Here's a chart of how voting went down.

Peregrine - voted for Schmidty
Blade6119 - voted for digamma
hoopsguy - voted for Blade6119
Vince - voted for Swaggs
kingfc22 - voted for Schmidty
digamma - voted for Schmidty
Neon_Chaos - voted for Quikshot
JeeberD - voted for Blade6119
Swaggs - voted for Blade6119
Mr. Wednesday - voted for Schmidty
Fouts - voted for Schmidty
Qwikshot - voted for Schmidty

If I wasn't out for the night on my friends' party, I would have probably started the voting, and I admit, I would have voted for Schmidty. When I came home, I saw three votes placed for him with noone else voting for the other 1-vote guys, I decided to go and see if anyone else would bandwagon on other people so I went with Qwikshot.

What really bites me in the ass is how the initial four votes were on four different people, Peregrine for Schmidty, Blade6119 for digamma, hoopsguy for Blade6119 and Vince for Swaggs, and how those votes whittled down to 2 choices. Two consecutive Schmidty votes (kingfc22 and digamma), and then I break the cycle with a vote for Qwikshot. And then we get two consecutive Blade votes (JeeberD and Swaggs). And of course the final 3 deciding votes that came within the last hour for Schmidty (Mr. Wednesday, Fouts, Qwikshot). Funny how digamma and Swaggs got lost in the mix of initial targets, and how we had 5 choices right there and whittled it down to two. (digamma voted for Schmidty after kingfc22 did, Swaggs voted for Blade after JeeberD did).

I still think that it's stupid for the aliens to blatantly jump on the bandwagon at the last minute to save a fellow alien. That would just finger them all out and get them all killed.I think most of us have played this game long enough to realize that most of the time, it's the middle votes that are usually the suspicious ones.

Blade, you are still suspicious in my book, and I cannot discount the fact that 3 guys did pile on Schmidty towards the end. but I just can't get this nagging feeling that we're following the wrong trail... specially when all the blatant opposition against voting for you tomorrow is coming from... well, just you. And we certainly aren't getting any opposition from you calling hoopsguy as a suspicious character as well.

I still think that everyone's a suspect at this point. And those middle votes (yes, including me) deserve to be picked and prodded as well.

Again, let's think, guys. Are we being played? We've all been down this 'obvious' route before you know, and it always doesn't turn out good.

The Night Actions will indeed give us more insight. I just hope I didn't ruffle up any feathers with my analysis.

CW: About the Blade/hoopsguy bickering, I also am thinking along that line, hence my analysis.

btw, if i recall my previous board-identity (PsychoCop) was just a Squaddie in the original X-Com dynasty, before dying in a frikkin' alien scout ship mission. Sheesh. I'm sure most everyone also probably put in their ranks when they were in the dynasty.

wow. that was... lengthy.

[Peregrine]

Just FYI, I used Major since I assumed my character had stayed in service after the alien wars and gotten a few promotions since then.

I tend to believe Hoopsguy, he was the first one to mention that Schmidty claimed to be a grunt, and since I was also told I had a grunt role, that's fairly convincing evidence. Of course anyone since then doesn't have the same trust since we'll all claim to be grunts (even me!)

Personally I'm a little suspicious of people that were the only vote for someone. Not that bandwagoning is a good thing, but on the first day with not much else to go on, it's usual for a bandwagon to form. But it's great camouflage to be off on your own voting for a single person, who's going to question that? I'll be keeping an eye on Vince and Neon_Chaos for those reasons.

I'd also like to mention that we're going to have to be really careful here. Unless there's some heavy duty alien killing roles, the odds are heavily stacked against us here, 4 aliens in 15 players...just wow.

[Raiders Army]

Originally Posted by Peregrine

Just FYI, I used Major since I assumed my character had stayed in service after the alien wars and gotten a few promotions since then.

I tend to believe Hoopsguy, he was the first one to mention that Schmidty claimed to be a grunt, and since I was also told I had a grunt role, that's fairly convincing evidence. Of course anyone since then doesn't have the same trust since we'll all claim to be grunts (even me!)

Personally I'm a little suspicious of people that were the only vote for someone. Not that bandwagoning is a good thing, but on the first day with not much else to go on, it's usual for a bandwagon to form. But it's great camouflage to be off on your own voting for a single person, who's going to question that? I'll be keeping an eye on Vince and Neon_Chaos for those reasons.

I'd also like to mention that we're going to have to be really careful here. Unless there's some heavy duty alien killing roles, the odds are heavily stacked against us here, 4 aliens in 15 players...just wow.

Please stop editing your messages.

And I believe we might be down to 4 aliens in 14 players. For the record, I said I wouldn't be as vocal in this game, since when I start to get vocal I become a target of opportunity for the wolves, creatures, aliens. I think this game I'll try to be absolutely sure of who I point the finger to before I post something...then again, I was absolutely sure in the last games as well and they got villagers and bandits killed.

I do believe that hoopsguy and Blade are both good guys since Coffee Warlord spelled it out pretty well. In past games, the ones who were willing to fight it out were both good guys while the bad guys were content to let us pick each other off.

[Raiders Army]

Well, after I've looked at the past two games again, I'm sure the aliens' best strategy is to let us pick each other off. It worked in V and VI. I'm going to be out of the office for much of today with the exception of lunch, so I won't be posting much until after 5 EST.

[SirFozzie]

The night passes by quickly..

Until at 0330 hours.. there is a long, drawn out scream. A scream of the most pain ever imagined.. scraping both nerves and vocal cords. It goes on and on and on and on and on.. . Some of you have heard that scream before.. and it sets your teeth on edge. None of you dare venture out of your rooms to determine the cause however. Finally, the voice, now hoarse finally stops short and dies out.

At 0900 Zulu you all troop out into the main room, and to your surprise.. there's all 14 of you.. what was the night scream then..

Then your eye wanders to the computer screen.. and suddenly, what was a good thing, (all of you living through the night) has suddenly turned into a bad thing.

There are now FIVE ECTOPLASMIC SOURCES.

Sending out some PM's to folks who have decisions to make..

[hoopsguy]

Peregrine - agreed on all counts. I hardly think that the list I'm putting forward is exactly the list of aliens. But I think we need a strategy for today that isn't totally random. Neon - that is where I'm struggling a little bit with your analysis. If we discount the obvious to look for the less obvious, then where does that leave us? Back to day 1, where we are making random guesses?

I don't want to pull a Thomkal and tell everyone how to vote (or else!) ... just not my style. But I do want to make sure I have put my cards on the table early enough to help out in the event that I learn in two hours that I've been reduced to a puddle of goo by a plasma attack.

[hoopsguy]

OK, this is really confusing ... no kills?

The bad news is the aliens can convert - which means that we really need to find some way to get more than one alien per night or this is over in two nights, barring a cap on total number of conversions.

Fozzie, when do we get our confirmation on Schmidty the grunt?

[SirFozzie]

The computer displays the following.

"98% confidence in the following.

Base Computer theorizes that target Schmidty was not an alien for the following reason. There were four ectoplasmic sources yesterday when target Schmidty was neutralized. There are more then four ectoplasmic sources today, which would theorize that Schmidty was not an ectoplasmic source, therefore human. Disabling further voice input."

Submit votes and response to PM's by 8 PM EDT.

[hoopsguy]

Duh - thanks.

[SirFozzie]

Oh. And 1 admin note: Please do not reveal your roles after your death. No harm no foul on the Schmidty reveal (after all, he hadn't been around all day), but it could change things.

[hoopsguy]

So anyone have an alternate course of action to narrowing in on the group of four from earlier?

Blade, MrWednesday, Fouts, Qwik

I know where my suspicions lie among these guys but I'm not close to being ready to vote yet. I'm hoping someone comes out of the woodwork with some new information to make this a little easier ...

[Poli]

I still think you're all aliens.

[Peregrine]

5 aliens with 14 of us left? Yoinks, SirFozzie, you better have some major tricks up your sleeves to help us or we're done for fast. Remember, I asked for us to all be terminated first! It's the only way to be sure...

[Thomkal]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Peregrine - agreed on all counts. I hardly think that the list I'm putting forward is exactly the list of aliens. But I think we need a strategy for today that isn't totally random. Neon - that is where I'm struggling a little bit with your analysis. If we discount the obvious to look for the less obvious, then where does that leave us? Back to day 1, where we are making random guesses?

I don't want to pull a Thomkal and tell everyone how to vote (or else!) ... just not my style. But I do want to make sure I have put my cards on the table early enough to help out in the event that I learn in two hours that I've been reduced to a puddle of goo by a plasma attack.

The Thomkal Vote with me...or Else plan(tm). I like it!

[JeeberD]

Oh crap. Alien conversions ain't a good sign...

[Neon_Chaos]

This is bad. Very bad. We'd better get an alien on day 2.

[SirFozzie]

Originally Posted by Peregrine

5 aliens with 14 of us left? Yoinks, SirFozzie, you better have some major tricks up your sleeves to help us or we're done for fast. Remember, I asked for us to all be terminated first! It's the only way to be sure...

What, me have some nasty twists and turns up my sleeves.

OF COURSE I do .

[Raiders Army]

Hmmm...this is gonna be tough and things don't look too good for us.

5 out of 14 of us are aliens. That's over one-third. If the previous Werewolf game rules apply, all they need is two more to win the game (i.e. half are aliens). That means that tonight could be the deciding vote??

I don't see the game ending this quickly though. Do they have to convert everyone or just achieve an equal amount of aliens vs. humans?

Even if they don't, here is how it could *potentionally* go down tonight:

We vote to kill a good guy. They convert another good guy.
6 aliens out of 13 people. I have to believe that somebody has a secret power to take these guys out. Since we have no weapons (the armory is locked), somebody has to be able to do something. If the seer out there saw something last night, this may be the point to bring their numbers down to a more manageable level.

[Raiders Army]

Dola, and if the computer can detect the ectopasmic sources, why doesn't it just take them out?

[Mr. Wednesday]

Clearly, the inability of the computer to localize the sources after detecting them is a major drawback.

[Vince]

Hudson: Well that's great, that's just fuckin' great man. Now what the fuck are we supposed to do? We're in some real pretty shit now man... That's it man, game over man, game over! What the fuck are we gonna do now? What are we gonna do?
Burke: Maybe we could build a fire, sing a couple of songs, huh? Why don't we try that?

On a more serious note...

...crap. Odds weren't good already, and now we have another one to deal with? Waiting for SirFozzie to throw us a bone probably isn't a great strategy, but making a mistake is an even worse outcome. I don't know if we'll be able to find out anything definitive based upon yesterday's voting, but we're going to have to try.

[SirFozzie]

Originally Posted by Raiders Army

Dola, and if the computer can detect the ectopasmic sources, why doesn't it just take them out?

All the sensors can do is detect by the AMOUNT of ectoplasmic particles.. not sources.

Besides, it'd be too easy this way