Invasion of Ukraine

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

I don't know why media outlets keep falling for this. There are no ground stations in the Ukraine right now. Not a single byte is being transferred from Ukraine through Starlink at the moment.

Maybe they'll be ready when those ventilators show up and that cool submarine saves those kids.

Lordy, I had forgotten about the submarine car. But, hey, he's one of those heroic entrepreneurs, geniuses of his time, and bootstraps and stuff. And he smokes pot on the radio so he's just like me.

SI

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by sterlingice

And he smokes pot on the radio so he's just like me.

Reminded me of this oldie but goodie

"I object to all this sex on the television. I mean, I keep falling off."

[GrantDawg]

I hate to be Debbie Downer here, but what happens if this all turns? What it looks like to me is that Putin expected a quick surrender and sort of half-assed the invasion. Now, I think they are starting to really pour in troops and hitting soft targets to weaken resistance before they bring in overwhelming numbers. If Kyiv falls in a couple of days. If the Ukrainian president is captured, or more likely shot. What happens then?

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

I hate to be Debbie Downer here, but what happens if this all turns? What it looks like to me is that Putin expected a quick surrender and sort of half-assed the invasion. Now, I think they are starting to really pour in troops and hitting soft targets to weaken resistance before they bring in overwhelming numbers. If Kyiv falls in a couple of days. If the Ukrainian president is captured, or more likely shot. What happens then?

I think more of the same. Sanctions, although not against the people that matter. Russia would be largely isolated from the world.

Also, taking a country is one thing, holding it is another. And I think the strategy from the West would be to wait it out. Can Russia keep down a well-funded, well-armed insurgency while their economy bleeds out?

No matter what happens militarily, I don't think it can be overstated how devastating this has been to their economy.

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

I hate to be Debbie Downer here, but what happens if this all turns? What it looks like to me is that Putin expected a quick surrender and sort of half-assed the invasion. Now, I think they are starting to really pour in troops and hitting soft targets to weaken resistance before they bring in overwhelming numbers. If Kyiv falls in a couple of days. If the Ukrainian president is captured, or more likely shot. What happens then?

It also looked like they were trying to go "minimal casualty", as much as you can during wartime. Yes, there were some civilians killed, but they looked a lot more like accidental attacks not deliberate. They were hoping to just take over the Ukrainian government and leave most things intact - better to not have to use your own money to rebuild your future colonies. It feels like in the last 48 hours, Putin may have pivoted to actually wiping the Ukrainians off the face of the earth, even without using nukes. He called in the Chechens with the brutal reputation (and they were promptly killed). There's been more targeting of civilians, more hits on infrastructure like the gas pipelines and storage, etc. If he wants to ratchet things up, direct fighting towards some more critical areas "accidentally" hit that dam which takes out electricity and floods a number of towns, hit the nuclear waste supply depots, fight near water treatment plants and accidentally cripple those - that sort of thing.

I really have no idea where this goes from Putin getting "suicided" to protracted war with atrocities to more strategic goals where Russia pulls back from fortified Kiev and concentrates on the eastern part of the country.

SI

[bhlloy]

Short term - Russia annexes the Donbass regions, installs pro-Russia lackey, deploys nukes to Ukraine and half his army along the borders with NATO countries, digs in for Afghanistan 2.0

Long term - lots of brinksmanship, worst case is North Korea with the second largest nuclear power in the world who can wipe any country off the map if they so choose. Hopefully China stays out of it and doesn’t do something similar with Taiwan while the west is focused on Europe not getting overrun again.

Only way out of this appears to be somebody deposing Putin somehow, maybe a collection of oligarchs and military who say enough is enough. I have no idea how realistic that really is though.

[MIJB#19]

Originally Posted by sovereignstar v2

FIFA and UEFA have banned Russian soccer clubs (domestic and their national team) from competing in European and international competitions. Russia was set to play Poland next month for a spot in the 2022 World Cup.

That's quite to decision for them.
For the past 8 years they just stuck with "we visibly manipulate the draws to keep Ukraine and Russia from playing in the same group" approach.

[Flasch186]

Some would say the Afghan insurgency has always been funded by Russia while we were there

Perhaps we do the same in Ukraine


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[NobodyHere]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

I don't know why media outlets keep falling for this. There are no ground stations in the Ukraine right now. Not a single byte is being transferred from Ukraine through Starlink at the moment.

Maybe they'll be ready when those ventilators show up and that cool submarine saves those kids.

FWIW

Starlink — here. Thanks, @elonmusk pic.twitter.com/dZbaYqWYCf

— Mykhailo Fedorov (@FedorovMykhailo) February 28, 2022

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by NobodyHere

FWIW

That's cool. He came through. US government should be promoting this tech in countries that try to restrict internet access.

Also seen the idea of using high-altitude hot air balloons (Google was testing it but eventually scrapped it). Probably easy to take down, but they're cheap and you can probably stay ahead of the curve. Something the DoD could use a tiny fraction of their budget on.

[RainMaker]

lol they left Abramovich off the list.

Subscribe to read | Financial Times

[Atocep]

I think the Biden Administration has overall done a pretty good job handling this. Presenting the intel to the public and other countries well ahead of time was brilliant and has made it impossible for Russia to control the narrative. I think it played a role in throwing Putin off.

It can argued how much of it should be credited to the the US, but everyone getting on the same page with sanctions and condemning this is also they deserve some praise for. Again, the US wasn't the only country making this happen but we didn't fuck it up.

Also, when people wonder why we're sending $400 million in aid to Ukraine this is the answer. This aid was money well spent.

[Solecismic]

Sadly, there's apparently a 17-mile-long convoy moving toward Kyiv for tonight's attack. And rumors that they've already used that MOAB at least once.

This is starting to feel like a sick game of Tower defense down that road from Belarus. How can Kyiv can hold up much longer? Putin's just going to keep upping the attack - they still have some of the original troops in position ready to go, and more can be sent. Once he decided it was OK to randomly shoot at civilians, how does this stop?

[PilotMan]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

I think more of the same. Sanctions, although not against the people that matter. Russia would be largely isolated from the world.

Also, taking a country is one thing, holding it is another. And I think the strategy from the West would be to wait it out. Can Russia keep down a well-funded, well-armed insurgency while their economy bleeds out?

No matter what happens militarily, I don't think it can be overstated how devastating this has been to their economy.

And this is 100% the right play imo

[PilotMan]

Originally Posted by Solecismic

Sadly, there's apparently a 17-mile-long convoy moving toward Kyiv for tonight's attack. And rumors that they've already used that MOAB at least once.

This is starting to feel like a sick game of Tower defense down that road from Belarus. How can Kyiv can hold up much longer? Putin's just going to keep upping the attack - they still have some of the original troops in position ready to go, and more can be sent. Once he decided it was OK to randomly shoot at civilians, how does this stop?

This is how it was always going to be.

It's a steady press. One side has more power, resources, and tech, and has been waging a war to destabilize their opponents for close to 10 years already. Time is on the side of the Russians, it's really just a matter of time.

[molson]

I'm starting to see a lot of war footage on reddit and twitter. I think a few days ago there just wasn't much going on in the cities yet.

Edit: Based on some of the footage, and cell phone text messages from a dead Russian solider that a Ukrainian ambassador read at the U.N., it seems like at least some of the Russian soldiers didn't understand that this was going to be a war (and that they were a part of an invasion).

I saw another clip of a Ukrainian soldier who came across an invading Russian soldier's food rations - which expired in 2015.

[miami_fan]

Originally Posted by Solecismic

Sadly, there's apparently a 17-mile-long convoy moving toward Kyiv for tonight's attack. And rumors that they've already used that MOAB at least once.

This is starting to feel like a sick game of Tower defense down that road from Belarus. How can Kyiv can hold up much longer? Putin's just going to keep upping the attack - they still have some of the original troops in position ready to go, and more can be sent. Once he decided it was OK to randomly shoot at civilians, how does this stop?

Russia has approximately 900,000 active personnel and a further two million reservists, compared to Ukraine's 196,000 active troops and 900,000 reservists. If no other country is going to add to Ukraine's fighting capability, the result is inevitable.

The only thing that could stop it is if Putin decides to pull back. Given that the situation can't be any more embarrassing to include if he pulled back, Putin is going to see this all the way through no matter what.

[flere-imsaho]

Originally Posted by sterlingice

That said, I'm sure China is also like "Russia's big but a lot of that land is really useless" and they have no desire to go in and just take it wholesale. Maybe they'll start annexing part, saying there are ethnic Chinese there.

I think a lot of that unpopulated land actually has a lot of natural resources, including petroleum, uranium, and rare earth metals (IIRC, I could be wrong).

[sabotai]

A lot of that useless land is going to become very useful in about 100 years or so.

[bob]

It’s really odd to me that we can be providing weapons (giving, not selling) to the direct opponent of Russia, out in the open, yet not be considered in war with them ourselves.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by molson

I'm starting to see a lot of war footage on reddit and twitter. I think a few days ago there just wasn't much going on in the cities yet.

Edit: Based on some of the footage, and cell phone text messages from a dead Russian solider that a Ukrainian ambassador read at the U.N., it seems like at least some of the Russian soldiers didn't understand that this was going to be a war (and that they were a part of an invasion).

I saw another clip of a Ukrainian soldier who came across an invading Russian soldier's food rations - which expired in 2015.

There is a lot on Telegram. The stuff on Twitter and Facebook has mostly been pulled from there. Telegram is much more secure and trustworthy than Twitter and Facebok. Remember the data those companies collect.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by NobodyHere

FWIW

Great work in 2-3 days!

Still an ass but rooting for him to win back some haters and, of course, continue the electric car revolution, lessening our reliance on ME, and growth of private enterprise in space.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

I hate to be Debbie Downer here, but what happens if this all turns? What it looks like to me is that Putin expected a quick surrender and sort of half-assed the invasion. Now, I think they are starting to really pour in troops and hitting soft targets to weaken resistance before they bring in overwhelming numbers. If Kyiv falls in a couple of days. If the Ukrainian president is captured, or more likely shot. What happens then?

Best case, Russia calls it quits are the economy craters and world opinion becomes too much. They'll still keep the 2 friendly regions and call it a win.

Likely case. Russia is eventually able to overwhelm Ukraine. EU/NATO/UN creates some sort of "safe zone/buffer" to protect remaining Ukrainian forces and civilians. Russia installs friendly government, struggles with economy, and fights low intensity conflict for the next several years.

[Brian Swartz]

Originally Posted by bob

It’s really odd to me that we can be providing weapons (giving, not selling) to the direct opponent of Russia, out in the open, yet not be considered in war with them ourselves.

The line between war and peace has become increasingly blurry in modern times, I would say mostly intentionally. It's hard to articulate where the line is, and if a leader doesn't have the legal authority to declare war themselves, it's easier to just conduct various 'war-lite' actions and never call it that.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by miami_fan

Russia has approximately 900,000 active personnel and a further two million reservists, compared to Ukraine's 196,000 active troops and 900,000 reservists. If no other country is going to add to Ukraine's fighting capability, the result is inevitable.

The only thing that could stop it is if Putin decides to pull back. Given that the situation can't be any more embarrassing to include if he pulled back, Putin is going to see this all the way through no matter what.

From what I recall, Russia have approx < 200K for the invasion. True they can redeploy some of the remaining 700K but there may not be enough time before Putin has to call uncle.

The 17 mile convoy looks like a major push. If they get to Kyiv without being substantially depleted, my guess is Kyiv is done for. Don't know the terrain and the air superiority situation, but you'd think US/Kyiv would find a way to stop it.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by bob

It’s really odd to me that we can be providing weapons (giving, not selling) to the direct opponent of Russia, out in the open, yet not be considered in war with them ourselves.

Arms and very likely helping plan & coordinate the defenses. So war by proxy right now and there's plenty of precedence (Vietnam, Korea, Iraq etc.).

The red line is boots on the ground or air unless its to establish a "safe zone" for humanitarian reasons.

I wish we had provided and trained them on our drones. But the Turkish ones seems to be doing a good job.

[Edward64]

Seems to summarize much better than MSM and reddit.

Still rooting for Ukraine but am pessimistic after reading the article.

Ukraine Conflict Update 11 | Institute for the Study of War

The next major phase of Russian offensive operations will likely begin within the next 24 hours and play out over the ensuing 48-72 hours. Ukrainian resistance remains remarkably effective and Russian operations, especially on the Kyiv axis, have been poorly coordinated and executed, leading to significant Russian failures on that axis and at Kharkiv. Russian forces remain much larger and more capable than Ukraine’s conventional military, however, and Russian advances in southern Ukraine threaten to unhinge the defense of Kyiv and northeastern Ukraine if they continue unchecked.

Russian ground forces are advancing on four primary axes and a possible fifth axis, discussed in turn below:

1) Kyiv Axis: Russia deployed additional heavy forces and artillery it has so far failed to employ in assaults on the city to the western approach to Kyiv on February 27-28. Russian forces will likely launch a renewed assault on western Kyiv on March 1. Attacks by Russian light forces on the outskirts of the city failed to make progress on February 28. Ukrainian forces are unlikely to capitulate.

2) Northeast Axis: Russian forces began using heavy artillery against central Kharkiv on February 28, indicating a dangerous inflection in Russian operations as the Kremlin chooses to use air and artillery assets it has held in reserve to date. Russian forces additionally resumed limited advances in northeastern Ukraine on February 28 after an operational pause on February 26-27.

3) Donbas Axis: Russian and proxy forces resumed assaults on Ukrainian forces defending Mariupol from the east and deployed additional artillery and anti-tank guided missile (ATGM) assets to the Mariupol front line on February 28. Russian forces may attempt a renewed assault on Mariupol in the coming days. Russian forces likely intend to pin Ukrainian forces in place on the line of contact to enable Russian forces breaking out of Crimea to isolate them.

4) Crimea Axis: Russian forces continued limited advances on two axes out of Crimea—north toward Zaprozhia and west toward Mykolayiv, reaching the outskirts of Mykolayiv on February 28. Russia may struggle to fully supply both axes of advance and may be forced to choose which advance to prioritize.

5) Russian and Belarusian forces may be preparing for an additional line of advance from Belarus into Western Ukraine. The Belarusian 38th Air Assault Brigade deployed to Kobryn, near Brest in southwestern Belarus, on February 28. The Ukrainian General Staff reported on February 28 that there is a high likelihood of Belarusian forces joining Russian operations. ISW previously reported a Russian armored column assembling in Stolin, Belarus, on February 25 to support a possible advance into Rivne Oblast in western Ukraine. A Russian offensive in western Ukraine would likely seek to cut Ukraine off from ground shipments of Western aid through Poland, Slovakia, and Hungary. However, Belarusian airborne forces would likely face similar difficulties to previous, failed, Russian airborne operations against Kyiv if they attempted airdrops.

[NobodyHere]

If only this was true, the war would be over in a day:

Did Pornhub Block Russian Users? | Snopes.com

[miami_fan]

Originally Posted by Edward64

From what I recall, Russia have approx < 200K for the invasion. True they can redeploy some of the remaining 700K but there may not be enough time before Putin has to call uncle.

The 17 mile convoy looks like a major push. If they get to Kyiv without being substantially depleted, my guess is Kyiv is done for. Don't know the terrain and the air superiority situation, but you'd think US/Kyiv would find a way to stop it.

Unless someone else gets involved alongside of Ukraine, I don't see any circumstance that would force Putin to quit this mission. Maybe the US or the EU throw him a lifeline that he could spin into him giving Ukraine a break but I don't think that is likely.

Putin does not strike me as a guy who is overly concerned about too many of his troops dying so if he needs to send in more troops to get the job done, he will. I believe that the objective of this invasion was for Putin to flex his military might and putting on his "Shock and Awe" campaign. He has failed to meet that objective. I don't see how he can remain in power if he were to stop before taking control of Ukraine.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by miami_fan

Unless someone else gets involved alongside of Ukraine, I don't see any circumstance that would force Putin to quit this mission. Maybe the US or the EU throw him a lifeline that he could spin into him giving Ukraine a break but I don't think that is likely.

Putin does not strike me as a guy who is overly concerned about too many of his troops dying so if he needs to send in more troops to get the job done, he will. I believe that the objective of this invasion was for Putin to flex his military might and putting on his "Shock and Awe" campaign. He has failed to meet that objective. I don't see how he can remain in power if he were to stop before taking control of Ukraine.

My optimistic self is hoping that with the flood of armaments, continued intel, and whatever else US/NATO is doing on the down low, that Ukraine can hold.

It's pretty obvious to me that without the new weapons, intel etc. Ukraine would have fallen already. But time is not on Putin's side.

So yeah, he can rush another 200K troops into the theatre but it'll take some time to get there. And its not just troops, it's also logistics for the increased troops.

FWIW. You know, easy for us armchair generals to be tossing out our opinion ... but I can only imagine the real folks somewhere in Pentagon or elsewhere, looking at all their screens and real time updates on troop movement, logistics, air war etc. Wish I could be there listening in. And only about 1% old enough to remember to Cold War and Fulda Gap wargaming.

[molson]

Do we even know what Russia's military goal is? Is it just killing enough people and destroying enough infrastructure until Ukraine surrenders their sovereignty? Is it just taking over the government buildings in the capital?

[RainMaker]

Every city should make such a map to help find them… pic.twitter.com/MLuY4mMR9m

— Jussi Pekka 🇺🇦 (@JuPe_EU) February 28, 2022

[JPhillips]

Originally Posted by molson

Do we even know what Russia's military goal is? Is it just killing enough people and destroying enough infrastructure until Ukraine surrenders their sovereignty? Is it just taking over the government buildings in the capital?

Multiple Russian media sources apparently published and then retracted what looked like a Kremlin piece praising Putin for annexing Ukraine and humiliating the West. If that's the goal, seems unlikely to get there now. Even if, as I think will happen, Russia is able to kill or remove the current government, how do they police Ukraine? It isn't like the population is going to drop all of their weapons and obey. And then how does Russia get reintegrated into the world economy?

[CrimsonFox]

[CrimsonFox]

Originally Posted by molson

Do we even know what Russia's military goal is? Is it just killing enough people and destroying enough infrastructure until Ukraine surrenders their sovereignty? Is it just taking over the government buildings in the capital?

You could say the same thing abuot the republican insurgents on Jan 6

[CrimsonFox]

I often see russian players on steam especially in serious sam. I wonder how those guys are handling this

if steam blocked them there would be such a coup

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

Multiple Russian media sources apparently published and then retracted what looked like a Kremlin piece praising Putin for annexing Ukraine and humiliating the West. If that's the goal, seems unlikely to get there now. Even if, as I think will happen, Russia is able to kill or remove the current government, how do they police Ukraine? It isn't like the population is going to drop all of their weapons and obey. And then how does Russia get reintegrated into the world economy?

They don't have the forces to occupy a population of 44 million people. Iraq has a smaller population and we weren't able to do it with international support and a far more competent military. The only thing I can figure is they hope that by getting a Lukashenko-like leader in place and forcing the pro-democracy people out of leadership positions throughout the government and military things people will fall in line.

[Brian Swartz]

I don't think we know how an occupation would go. The way Ukraine is fighting now is highly encouraging of course, but there's a difference between that and continuing to fight if their conventional military is ultimately defeated.

Originally Posted by Edward64

easy for us armchair generals to be tossing out our opinion

Agreed, I don't think any of us really know. But I still think allied air power was and is needed to give Ukraine a realistic long-term chance of doing more than an eventual capitulation and insurgency, assuming Putin remains in power and in good enough health and doesn't back down, all of which seem likely.

[Solecismic]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-60492134

Xi is the puppet master here. This can't end unless Xi directs Putin to end it.

If Putin installs his own puppet in Ukraine, that works for Xi. But this seems to have always been about Russia/China wanting the US in a diminished role in the world - with NATO no longer worth anything and the US/EU more and more dependent on importing fuels.

The only way out of this is energy and materials independence. Whatever it takes. Biden and the EU leaders have to remove the restrictions they've added in recent years. Otherwise, China is just going to keep squeezing.

[Brian Swartz]

I don't think that's at all realistic. Globalization, reliance on trade, etc. is a fact of life for everyone in the modern world. That includes even China. Any nation that cuts themselves off in an isolationist manner will not be able to compete economically. Of course the more of our own consumption we can produce the better, it's makes you less susceptible to problems when supply is cut off from outside for one reason or another, but trade is essential - both importing and exporting. Even if we were 100% self-sufficient in terms of what we needed, a grave price would be paid if foreign markets were eliminated for our goods.

[Solecismic]

I'm not talking about isolationism - that's not rational for the reasons you mention. I'm talking about dependence. China is using Russia to bring about major changes in the world. And not in a good way.

[GrantDawg]

@UAWeapons is a good follow on twitter if you are interested in Russian weaponry. They are showing equipment that have been destroyed or captured by the UA. There have been fully functional and fueled battle tanks that have been abandoned by Russian forces, along with a large number that are somewhat damaged or ran out of fuel. Looking through the threads I didn't know that Ukraine is offering $45k to any Russian soldier who is willing to defect. I have a feeling that might just be propaganda, but the suggestion is some Russian soldiers are buying it.

[MIJB#19]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

@UAWeapons is a good follow on twitter if you are interested in Russian weaponry.

A more general question: I need some help in convincing me why twitter all of a sudden is a place to go find objective information on this war. I mean, how does one decipher which are propaganda accounts and which are objective eyewitness stories? I mean, not so long ago even the supposedly account of the president of the USA was almost exclusively used for propaganda.

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by MIJB#19

A more general question: I need some help in convincing me why twitter all of a sudden is a place to go find objective information on this war. I mean, how does one decipher which are propaganda accounts and which are objective eyewitness stories? I mean, not so long ago even the supposedly account of the president of the USA was almost exclusively used for propaganda.

I think it is like all media. Assume it is propaganda, but weed out the verifiable.

[JPhillips]

This thread on the combined efforts of professionals and amateurs to jam and record Russian army communications is pretty remarkable.

Intelligence acquired since the beginning of the Russian military operation over Ukraine has shown an immense lack of logistic support, making this war one of the most unique in 2022 when it comes to surveillance.

A thread ���� pic.twitter.com/huILD8lEDX

— ShadowBreak Intl. (@sbreakintl) March 1, 2022

[albionmoonlight]

In the middle of all of this, the Fifth Circuit holds that federal judges, not military leaders, should make deployment decisions at the individual troop level:
https://www.ca5.uscourts.gov/opinion...-10077-CV0.pdf

[albionmoonlight]

* RUSSIAN MOVE ON KYIV IS STALLED, OFFICIAL SAYS

* U.S. HAS INDICATIONS THAT SOME RUSSIAN UNITS HAVE SURRENDERED WITHOUT A FIGHT, U.S. OFFICIAL SAYS@Reuters

— Carl Quintanilla (@carlquintanilla) March 1, 2022

[Brian Swartz]

Originally Posted by Solecismic

I'm not talking about isolationism - that's not rational for the reasons you mention. I'm talking about dependence

The point I'm making is that you can't not be dependent on foreign markets unless you are isolationist.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

In the middle of all of this, the Fifth Circuit holds that federal judges, not military leaders, should make deployment decisions at the individual troop level:
https://www.ca5.uscourts.gov/opinion...-10077-CV0.pdf

Yeah, good luck with that (regardless of which party is in power).

[Edward64]

Currently reflecting on Civ 6 warmonger penalty. Firaxis will have to rethink the mechanics. Reality has trumped the game.



EDIT: wanted to check out the r/Russia sub to get their POV. Apparently its been taken down completely

In r/Sino. Same old anti-US rhetoric & hypocrisy, and also anti-NATO. Some posts about citizens trying to leave, some posts about smearing China etc.

In the r/China, more pro-western posts.

Interesting discussions going on in the r/India sub. Majority of commentators favor India's neutrality. Russia has supported India politically and militarily so in a way I get it. But lots of commentary on how Ukraine/Europe are racist and therefore, they shouldn't get India's support. I can see that if UK was getting invaded but don't think that should apply to Ukraine. Admittedly, India is in a difficult situation so being neutral is probably best position for them.

Not much happening in r/Cuba.