WW - Nightmare Before Christmas (Game Over - Wolves Win!!!)

[EagleFan]

It is time!!!!

Everyone gathers in the workshop and the debate begins. One of you must be responsible for the death EagleFan. Maybe thee are some clues...

You can find none but you begin to suspect each other.

Before you know it DaddyTorgo's name is being tossed about in the vote and is the leading candidate. More people pile on. A late run on saldana makes it close but in the end you feel that DaddyTorgo is the way to go.

You find him and bring him foreward.

Do you have any last minute confessions?

Yes, he replies. I do. I... I... I think the Patriots are going to win this year...

Lies!!!! The crowd screams!!!

Put him down!!!!

Wait!!!!!

Everyone stands in amazement as a a spirit rises above the crowd. It is the spirit of EagleFan.

My Christmas gift to everyone is no day one lynch, or night kill. All are protected. The village will gain something and the wolves will gain something.

The village will gain a new member. DaddyTorgo is Jack Skellington but he has now lost his powers and is a vanilla villager. The wolves will learn what they will gain in a PM.

[The Jackal]

Well that's interesting and seemingly positive for the village, since what the wolves will get can't be as good as a convert, one would think. Glad we didn't lose a seer or BG or some sort, but I too think DT would've revealed harder in that situation. No NK is always good.

[Danny]

Wonder if DT knew that was going to happen or he figured he would quasi reveal and if saved would be targeted by the wolves and converted.

[EagleFan]

I will post when day two will officially begin in the next few minutes. I need to send out a few PM's first to finalize the day.

I wanted this to be a game without a day one lynch but wanted the vote to be worth something so I did not make it known. Though you threw a wrench into my initial plans with your choice...

[The Jackal]

Well I'm gonna watch this movie and get some sleep, will be back tomorrow, will probably take a look at how the voting for DT went through the day.

[Danny]

Originally Posted by EagleFan

I will post when day two will officially begin in the next few minutes. I need to send out a few PM's first to finalize the day.

I wanted this to be a game without a day one lynch but wanted the vote to be worth something so I did not make it known. Though you threw a wrench into my initial plans with your choice...

In this case look like DT was hoping to be saved and converted to a wolf

[thejuggler3]

Told you, a Christmas miracle

[EagleFan]

Day Two has begun!!!

[DaddyTorgo]

Originally Posted by Danny

Wonder if DT knew that was going to happen or he figured he would quasi reveal and if saved would be targeted by the wolves and converted.

I had no idea. This was sort of my thought.

Damn you all for putting me up for lynch - I had a sweet role - and the ability to scan for and kill the brutal wolf BTW. So you lose that possibility.

[DaddyTorgo]

Originally Posted by Danny

In this case look like DT was hoping to be saved and converted to a wolf

Or just not voted in general so i could continue as a villager and try to find the brutal and off him for us villagers.

But I figured the wolves would either come hard after me after my half-reveal, or else assume I was blowing smoke and leave me alone.

Lame.

[DaddyTorgo]

So now I'm just a vanilla villager?

Exciting. Not.

[Darth Vilus]

Well that day could have gone way worse, all in all i say it was an ok day

[Lathum]

Vote " Flaming Homo" Cliff Lee

[saldana]

Originally Posted by Autumn

Wow, 4 votes on DT. I'm not going to pile on that. I think I put him and Saldana in my not vote pile this morning because something seemed fishy there where Saldana "joke" voted DT and then PackerFan jumped on top of it. I might be willing to go Saldana then, much more than DT or PF at this point.

how is it fishy that i voted for a guy who made a joke about my questionable gender...thats one of the longest running gags on the board, and the number of times i have used that as the basis of my day one vote is probably in double figures.

i am not gonna whine and complain about catching votes yesterday, but i am rather suspicious of the people that drove the run...im never a big fan of day one pile ons when the person being piled upon isnt here to actually say anything or make any kind of reveal...i will be going back through how i got my head in the noose later and will figure out my vote from there.

[saldana]

Originally Posted by Lathum

Vote " Flaming Homo" Cliff Lee

i am gonna stab someone at work today because of how annoying all the asswipe phillie fans are gonna be about this.

[PackerFanatic]

Apologies for not getting in a vote yesterday - totally forgot to jump on last night to do so.

[Autumn]

Well that was an interesting result. Gaining a villager is good even if we lost your abilities DT. That looked like a fun role to have.

Saldana, it's not so much that your vote in itself is fishy, but you getting a vote and then you voting DT (which you can always write off as a gag) and then Martin deciding to follow you, the whole thing just felt off at the time. I wasn't sure what to make of it, which is why initially I put you guys in my "don't vote" pile, but at the end of the day I didn't want to waste my vote and you seemed fishier than DT.

Also I thought you were one of the guys that usually shows up right around deadline so I thought that was safe.

[The Jackal]

I'm not going to force the issue too hard on RA, but he still hasn't checked in, right? If I don't see a midday check-in he'll be a leading contender for my vote. Otherwise I'll probably be voting for one of the mid-late DT voters.

[Coffee Warlord]

Hmm. Well, since the wolves would also not know DT's role, to them, they were killing a villager last night. That said, I think it's a good bet at least one wolf got in on the DT entertainment last night.

saldana (57), MartinD (67), Chief Rum (91), Lathum (109), thejuggler3 (121)

Of these, the Lathum one stands out to me. He's claiming it a 'revenge' vote from last game, which, would ordinarily be fine, except that's a vote you do early on day 1, when people are just throwing out votes. Putting a pretty decisive vote on a guy for that reason...I dunno.

Of the others, I have no exciting bursts of insight there. PackerFanatic is still on my radar, though it'd be strange for a wolf to not get a vote in at all.

[Coffee Warlord]

Oh, and Darth Vilius seemed kind of...gleeful once it was becoming more and more apparent DT was dead last night. Odd.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Coffee Warlord

He's claiming it a 'revenge' vote from last game, which, would ordinarily be fine, except that's a vote you do early on day 1, when people are just throwing out votes. Putting a pretty decisive vote on a guy for that reason...I dunno.

I was pretty clear when I signed up I would have limited time. I spent the first half of yesterday traveling, getting checked in, getting net access, and taking care of a 7 month old while my wife went to a meeting.

I am just a vanilla villager so me being lynched is no big deal, right now I am with Jackal on RA.

[Lathum]

dola- I'll be limited today as well. I'll be visiting my Aunt all day. I'll have my phone but limited time.

[Coffee Warlord]

Originally Posted by Lathum

I was pretty clear when I signed up I would have limited time. I spent the first half of yesterday traveling, getting checked in, getting net access, and taking care of a 7 month old while my wife went to a meeting.

I am just a vanilla villager so me being lynched is no big deal, right now I am with Jackal on RA.

Yeah, but you're always a wolf.

That said, Jackal's still high on my list of WTF's as well.

[Autumn]

Yeah I thought Lathum's vote odd for the same reason, CW - for a vote that was seemingly burying DT at the time, that's odd reasoning. But maybe he was just in a rush.

Saldana seems a fine candidate for today as well, given how the vote went yesterday. It would be interesting to find out if some of those late votes were saving him.

Also all gloves are off on all you new/returning guys as far as I'm concerned ;-) We had our Christmas miracle.

I'm going to look back over the vote record during the day and see what comes up.

[Lathum]

Hey Autumn, I was in Maine if that buys me any love from you.

[The Jackal]

Because I voted for someone who still hasn't checked in?

[Coffee Warlord]

More when than who. You put in a completely worthless vote late-ish in the day, rather get into the fray. No likey.

[Coffee Warlord]

Which, however, good point. EF, can you / have you buzzed RA?

[Autumn]

Originally Posted by Lathum

Hey Autumn, I was in Maine if that buys me any love from you.

And you didn't stop by ...

[The Jackal]

Originally Posted by Coffee Warlord

More when than who. You put in a completely worthless vote late-ish in the day, rather get into the fray. No likey.

I see where you are coming from. I know it was with a little under two hours left but I also saw that very, very few people had voted so I knew there were a ton of votes coming in shortly, and figured steam might gather on a non-check in vote. When it didn't I switched.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by Autumn

And you didn't stop by ...

We were pretty busy. I'm in Boston now and not getting together with any of the peeps down here either ( don't tell DT)

Are you anywhere near Windham/ Raymond area?

[Autumn]

Oh I'm sure, just kidding - you gotta show the new guy off. I never see 10% of the people I'd like to on trips. We're an hour or two from Windham, near the coast.

Too bad you didn't stop by - I could have checked you for wolf vibes

[PackerFanatic]

It's disappointing that we won't be able to glean much from who voted for DT - although I do agree with the analysis that there is likely one wolf in that group (but that isn't saying a whole lot).

[Passacaglia]

I'm kinda down with an RA vote if he doesn't check in, of course my Day 1 vote makes sense too, since he voted DT. It also might be nice to find out what sal is -- I haven't looked at the Day 1 voting in detail yet, but it might help us to know if we were villager/villager or wolf/villager (however, from what I remember, not much was going on at the end, so I'm skeptical that we'd learn much from that).

[Coffee Warlord]

I hate to say it, it's unfair, but I'm sort of agreeing with Pass - my early inclination is Saldana might be our most useful vote for information gathering today.

I don't like the idea of wasting a day with RA - hoping he comes in or gets replaced.

[Coffee Warlord]

That said, I'm still entertaining the idea of voting Packers or Jackal.

[Passacaglia]

Originally Posted by Coffee Warlord

I hate to say it, it's unfair, but I'm sort of agreeing with Pass - my early inclination is Saldana might be our most useful vote for information gathering today.

I don't like the idea of wasting a day with RA - hoping he comes in or gets replaced.

Before that idea gets any votes, could you back that up with the vote history yesterday, and what you think it means if sal is a villager vs. if sal is a wolf?

[thejuggler3]

It might be wasteful to vote off a player if they're just not checking in.

That is assuming that they are not doing it as a strategy, laying low for one reason or another (wolf playing it cool or seer trying not to draw attention). If they're just not involved, I would guess they may just be a vanilla villager... or plain and simply just got held up.

Still not sure who I'm suspicious of, but there were some weird votes yesterday, though maybe it's normal for this board

[Coffee Warlord]

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

Before that idea gets any votes, could you back that up with the vote history yesterday, and what you think it means if sal is a villager vs. if sal is a wolf?

One personal assumption I wanna air first.

1) The wolves know we don't want a tie. Someone gets a late-ish lead, as is the case with DT last night, I think people are going to be gun shy about dicking with the vote late.

And you know what? I'm changing my mind. As I was trying to respond to you with logic on voting sal, I realized said logic sucks. Unless we got pretty damn lucky, let's just assume we were villager/villager last night. If he is a wolf, this goes out the window, but I think that's pushing the bounds of probability.

If, as is more statistically likely, he's a villager, we learn...the wolves could have dumped votes on either and been fine. The people NOT on either of those two may be more interesting at that point, as there's probably at least one of those wolves who wanted to not get caught up in axing two villagers.
The most sensible thing for the wolves to do last night, in my mind, would be put 1 vote on DT and 1 on Sald. The third (I'm assuming we've got 3 wolves), could go wherever and stay out of it.

Frankly, the more I dwelled on it, *I* can't think of a ton we'd learn if we voted Sal and he turned up villager.

Yay just typing whatever the hell is bouncing around in my head.

[Autumn]

I'm looking back through the voting history when I can - I've only looked at early voting so far. Here are some notes:

Martin sticks his neck out to put a second vote on DT, first second vote, only the third vote. Doesn't make much sense to me for a villager or a wolf. I thought maybe he was Jack and wanting to draw a scan. There goes that theory.

PackerFan votes DV following my reasoning (but no vote from me yet). That struck me and several others as curious - seemed like possibly a wolf glad to start a run on someone who could probably draw a bunch of votes (no shows usually are fairly popular day one targets). PackerFan later backed off but I'm looking at him again today.

Pass votes Chief seemingly because I pointed out I didn't want to vote him day one since he's such a strong villager. I can see Pass's reasoning, but again a wolf would love to get a run started on a villager Chief.

Chief puts a third vote on DT. I'll have to go back and look at his reasoning there. This is as far as I've got so far.

[Chief Rum]

This might be what you're hitting on just now, CW, but I'll follow up with my own logic here.

DT was the first runaway candidate, and then there was a run on saldana. Now, not knowing any allegiances, this has the appearance of wolves fueling a run on saldana in order to save DT (putting aside for the moment that such an obvious move would actually put a pretty big bullseye on the sal voters).

As we now know, though, DT was not a wolf, so the wolves would have had no reason to try to save DT. Therefore, the run on sal to save DT was not wolf-inspired, but likely your run of the mill villagers making it a two horse race vote. Which, really, tells us nothing much about the voters or about sal's allegiance, which is about as likely now to be wolf or villager as it was at the start of the game.

In other words, back to square one--we can still lynch sal, but I don't think it provides us with any more information than we get from lynching some other random player.

[Autumn]

I agree about the reasoning behind the late run on Saldana, Chief, I know the reason I voted him was just to have a viable second candidate and not a landslide.

However, I think we could learn about some of the late votes on DT through Saldana. DT was up I think 3-1 when Lathum and then Juggler added fourth and fifth votes, putting it somewhat out of reach. Were those votes trying to save some other candidate? I'm not sure, I haven't been able to look at late votes closely yet.

[saldana]

Originally Posted by Autumn

Also I thought you were one of the guys that usually shows up right around deadline so I thought that was safe.

actually, this is generally 100% true....damn you Cataclysm!

[Passacaglia]

Heading out to our Christmas party, and in case I forget to pop back in here in the evening, I'll put in a placeholder vote.

VOTE RAIDERS ARMY

Not seeing anything wrong with some push on Chief Rum, but I'd rather get rid of someone who's not playing, so that the people who are playing can hang around longer.

[Autumn]

Notes on later votes:

As noted elsewhere Jackal puts a first vote on RA. I can't complain as I was fishing around for a new candidate as well.

Danny puts a first vote on Saldana (well second but there was an unvote). I then put a first (though I though there was one still) on Darth. So we have three poeple looking for a new candidate at this point. Candidates already on teh block are DT, PF and Chief. The fact that PF was close to the lead at this point has been overlooked.

It's 3-2 DT, PF when Lathum votes DT. I vote Saldana next, trying to add a third viable candidate. Then Juggler comes along and makes it 5-2 DT. If Lathum or Juggler are wolves would seem they were trying to keep the vote away from either PF or Saldana.

DT votes Saldana in self preservation, though he could have gone PackerFan as well.

Jackal also votes Saldana making it 5-4 DT, Saldana. Obviously no one is trying to save DT, so presumably this is just trying to make the vote interesting, though it could be pushing for a tie.

[Autumn]

Given what I've written in my vote summary, PackerFanatic is the one that stands out most to me. He seemed to try to jump on my vote suggestion, and it's possible to read the vote as trying to move votes away from him. He seems as good a candidate as any at this point.

VOTE PACKERFANATIC

[thejuggler3]

Okay, here’s my thoughts from the Day 1 voting. Now that I’ve seen how people work, I think I can contribute a bit more. Not hoping to make any enemies, so I’m casting my net a bit wide when it comes to ideas:
MartinD and ChiefRum were the early stacks on DT. May have just been to get the vote rolling though like MartinD said. I added to that vote as well to be fair.
I was suspicious of Danny trying to talk about me changing my vote, but it turned out DT wasn’t a wolf, so now it is does just comes off as friendly advice to draw out more info on voting. I was also suspicious of Autumn, Jackal, and DT (though it was self-defense) jumping on Sal, but again, with DT not being a wolf, that nixes any obvious hints.
That leaves the odd voting from Packer and Passacaglia (the ChiefRum vote seems a bit too “safe”, but not all that incriminating).
And I’m always suspicious of you, Coffee, hahaha.
I’m guessing wolves did go one for DT, one for Sal to even it out, and one somewhere else. If they didn’t do a random, probably 2 on DT. Hmmmm…
Looking at what I just wrote, I haven’t really added deduced much, so oh well. Would have been much easier if DT had been a wolf.

[EagleFan]

Votes as of post 196:

Raiders Army 1 - Passacaglia (194)
PackerFanatic 1 - Autumn (196)

[DaddyTorgo]

Originally Posted by Lathum

We were pretty busy. I'm in Boston now and not getting together with any of the peeps down here either ( don't tell DT)

Are you anywhere near Windham/ Raymond area?

LMAO

JERK!!!!

VOTE LATHUM

Hey don't forget - if you're driving by the Framingham area that's where my office and my apartment are.

[PackerFanatic]

VOTE AUTUMN

Helping myself out at this point - although if a better candidate comes around, I will gladly move my vote.

My vote yesterday was based simply off the analysis I had seen to that point - I don't know where I would have gone had I made it back on last night, but my eagerness to get a vote in so quick had nothing to do with my being wolf (because I am not one)