WW small Game ( roles going out, day 2 deadline 8:00 PM Tuesday) - Page 4

KWhit · 05-19-2008, 08:31 PM

That's 3 games in a row where I've been killed ridiculously early.

Alan T · 05-19-2008, 08:32 PM

Well I'll still be around a while tonight, but as I said before the game started, I will be traveling most of tommorrow to head back home. The one question I would like answered is: Claphamsa did you block anyone or was last night a no action?

PurdueBrad · 05-19-2008, 08:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Alan T

Just for the record, who are the awful villagers, so I know who to vote for next time? Or should I have ESP and automatically know who is good and bad each game?

Not awful, but it's really a cost-benefit thing for me. I prefer to pick people that I think could either be a more dangerous wolf than valuable villager. But that's just my approach. Today, I wanted to throw a vote out just to see where everyone else went and I believe I mentioned early that I was willing to look elsewhere. As I said, I just look at it like cost-benefit. Believe me, I bumble it enough as a wolf that it's probably in the best interest to let me through day one in case I'm a villager because I'll probably screw it up night one as a wolf and give myself away!

Alan T · 05-19-2008, 08:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PurdueBrad

Not awful, but it's really a cost-benefit thing for me. I prefer to pick people that I think could either be a more dangerous wolf than valuable villager. But that's just my approach. Today, I wanted to throw a vote out just to see where everyone else went and I believe I mentioned early that I was willing to look elsewhere. As I said, I just look at it like cost-benefit. Believe me, I bumble it enough as a wolf that it's probably in the best interest to let me through day one in case I'm a villager because I'll probably screw it up night one as a wolf and give myself away!

I guess the only person in this game that scares me as a villager would be if Saldana as a wolf.. and if I was a wolf, the only person who would have scared me as a villager would have also been Saldana.. but that is mostly based on alot of past experience, but I feel bad for getting Saldana killed early alot a long time ago so wanted to avoid him.

I've also had some recent interactions with Pass so tried to avoid voting for him on day 1 also.

For me, almost everyone else that was left I view pretty evenly as a wolf vs villager, but i haven't played a ton of games with the rest of the people. The only exception probably would have been Kwhit whom I always have felt was one of the best villagers in most games I've played.

So since there was no value added going that approach, I just went the direction that I did. I still don't think it is a bad approach, and out of everyone who voted on day 1, I'm probably one of the only ones who gave any reason for their logic. *shrug* Like I said, whatever.. I just think your logic is flawed here.

PurdueBrad · 05-19-2008, 08:46 PM

It might be flawed but I think it is why I think Hoops, St. Cronin, etc. get a lot of early votes because people are intimidated by how they could be as wolves. I'm not saying it's right or wrong because ultimately it's a crapshoot anyway, it's just what I use as the determining factor when I'm choosing between person A and person B, which hurts us least if voted off as a villager or could hurt as most as a wolf if allowed to continue. So I guess I need to make it clear, it's not my sole determinant, but it's what I use to tip the scales. Does that part make sense?

Anyway, not I'm officially out. See you in a couple hours.

Alan T · 05-19-2008, 08:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PurdueBrad

It might be flawed but I think it is why I think Hoops, St. Cronin, etc. get a lot of early votes because people are intimidated by how they could be as wolves. I'm not saying it's right or wrong because ultimately it's a crapshoot anyway, it's just what I use as the determining factor when I'm choosing between person A and person B, which hurts us least if voted off as a villager or could hurt as most as a wolf if allowed to continue. So I guess I need to make it clear, it's not my sole determinant, but it's what I use to tip the scales. Does that part make sense?

Anyway, not I'm officially out. See you in a couple hours.

I almost never vote for Hoopsguy on day 1 for a similar reason to Barkeep.. not as much a fear or lack of fear, just I guess a relationship thing in that we've played a ton of games together and I just don't see any reason to vote one of them on day 1. I often do vote for St.cronin fairly early, but it is not because I think he is a bad villager.. I just usually get really wolf vibes from him in like every game we play.

If I had to think about it, the reasons I vote for someone on day 1 almost always are different every game I play.

saldana · 05-19-2008, 08:57 PM

i am really having a hard time accepting that clap is the BG.

and Alan, I appreciate your fear of me from both directions...i hold the exact same opinion of you.

Passacaglia · 05-19-2008, 10:10 PM

Checking in...mixed results on the day, looks like. I'll answer stuff in more detail tomorrow, but I switched off clap because he revealed as the BG, and I didn't want a bandwagon to form on me.

The Jackal · 05-19-2008, 10:13 PM

Vote Saldana

This is a hunch.

claphamsa · 05-19-2008, 11:13 PM

ok , back... I tried to protect someone, and got the impresssion that there was no hit. From reading my pm i would say nothign happend. unless jsut seeing me hanging aroudn scared them off.....

claphamsa · 05-19-2008, 11:14 PM

I agree with Jackyl... Saldana is awfully.... I dunno, unbeliving, and tryign to put presure on me!

vote saldana

PurdueBrad · 05-19-2008, 11:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Alan T

I often do vote for St.cronin fairly early, but it is not because I think he is a bad villager.. I just usually get really wolf vibes from him in like every game we play.

Exactly though (with the exception of thinking he's a "bad villager"), I would vote for him because of the quality of wolf he plays. It's not that they're "bad villagers" but that they're far and away better wolves than most. Again, cost-benefit analysis. Anyway, this is going nowhere, we both play different ways. We saw the payoff this game, it'll be different the next. If there was a formula, it wouldn't really be a game.

Catching up as we speak...

PurdueBrad · 05-19-2008, 11:30 PM

Quick catch-up and I agree, some of the pressure on Claphamsa is a bit over the top considering there is no counter and the best thing we have is "the roles may/may not be in the game." I think I would take his word 'cause that's a hell of a risk to fake reveal that early with the chances of a bg. From my obviously limited experience it seems like the BG role is used second most to the seer.

Out for the night and back to drinking to our softball win.

Alan T · 05-19-2008, 11:51 PM

Lathum, Does the bodyguard in this game get notified if he blocks a kill?

For everyone else, if there is a hypnotizer out there, perhaps consider who you slept last night whether they might be a wolf blocked from a kill?

Seems like the simplest explanation here is that the wolves felt Eaglefan wasn't in danger of lynch and left him with the night kill order..

however, I would have to assume a few things here:

IF Eaglefan's fellow wolf was around near deadline while Eaglefan was only behind 2 in votes, with at least one person (myself) who could tie the vote in a heartbeat with a last minute vote change (which I have done plenty of times in my WW career).. they would have possibly worried that the possibility of Eaglefan being lynched was at least greater than 0%

I would assume any wolf around at the deadline had a less likely chance of being lynched than eaglefan and likely moved the night kill order over to them executing it instead...

Thus I don't know if I buy Saldana being a wolf here.. he was around at deadline and could easily have put in some backup plan. I can see where people feel he might be a bit over the top with his suspicion, but I don't know if that is any more of a wolf move at this point in the game... I think its far more likely a wolf in that situation knows the Bodyguard wont get lynched by people, and tries to fit in instead of stirring up stuff.

I feel a bit less confident about Render's play but likewise am not looking super hard at him either today... I keep coming back to one of two players.. either Passacaglia or TheJackyl,.. and feel better about voting for Thejackyl today.

Alan T · 05-19-2008, 11:59 PM

Hmm, based on the play between 7pm and 7:30ish where there were a few people around, Claphamsa had the lead over Purduebrad and Pass in votes 4-2-2 with Eaglefan only having 1. Clap moved his vote over to PurdueBrad and off of pass to make it 4-3-1-1 and basically a two horse race, but without much movement and evidentally having to leave he did his reveal at that point.

Assuming his reveal is legit, then we also assume he really had to leave then. Pass instantly moved his vote over to PB, swinging the vote around 4-3 the other way, and PB removed his vote off of Clap and over to Eagle fan making it 4-2-2-1 (or something like that).. Somewhere in this range, TheJackal popped in and out but didn't move his vote, as did Render. TheJackal had his vote on eaglefan and moving it could have come across as trying to save him.. whereas Render had his vote on Claphamsa who had revealed as the BG.

I think a wolf in that situation might fear the response from the next day's vote if Claphamsa is telling the truth, and especially if he makes a block in a way that validates them. So I don't know that I feel that strongly that Render is bad here

Alan T · 05-20-2008, 12:01 AM

Taking this even further.. lets assume that Claphamsa is Eaglefan's partner in crime.. and they blew it getting a night order in... If there was someone else who was the bodyguard, they would out Clap here as fake, and probably end the game (assuming 2 wolves).

So at this point I think it is fairly safe to assume no one else is a bodyguard, and look at whether or not Clap is the bodyguard, or if there is no bodyguard in this game...

If I was a wolf and had revealed as the bodyguard, and gotten away with it, I would have played it up more today.. I would have come out after evidentally blowing a chance to get a night kill and try to use it to gain more trust.. I would say that I did indeed block the kill but the role does not allow me to see who the attacker was.

Maybe I am wrong here, but the way claphamsa has played the reveal and since, I don't think he is lying about being the bodyguard either...

Alan T · 05-20-2008, 12:03 AM

I think for today, I obviously trust PurdueBrad as a villager, and I'll give the benefit of the doubt to Render, Claphamsa, Saldana... and for now I'll give Pass a pass too..

That really only leaves me with one person

Vote TheJackal

saldana · 05-20-2008, 07:15 AM

i can understand clap's vote for me...i am putting on a little bit of pressure...what i cant understand is why, if he were the BG, and we didnt have a night kill last night, was he not claiming a block when he came back to the thread last night? especially since i believe he was asked who he protected twice?

as for passacaglia, i have alot more trust in him right now than i do several other people...if you look at the votes that came in yesterday before people started switching, Kwhit (the sorcerer who knew the wolves) voted for Pass at 3:50, which at that point, made Pass the vote leader at 2. I cant see the sympathizer putting a wolf out in front with a vote that was spread out over 5 people at that point.

the person that I was the most interested in yesterday, and still today is where alan went with his vote. I am wondering why, when there are already 4 people with one vote, you would go ahead and add a 5th. what is the value added to the village by spreading out even further? it has been argued ad nauseum that we should narrow day one votes down to 2 or 3 horses, instead, with 4 hours left to the deadline, TheJackal just adds another horse and dilutes the possibilities of a clear lynch candidate.

since I know I am not going to get any backup on Claphamsa, the silent but apparently successful bodyguard,

vote TheJackal

claphamsa · 05-20-2008, 07:28 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PurdueBrad

Quick catch-up and I agree, some of the pressure on Claphamsa is a bit over the top considering there is no counter and the best thing we have is "the roles may/may not be in the game." I think I would take his word 'cause that's a hell of a risk to fake reveal that early with the chances of a bg. From my obviously limited experience it seems like the BG role is used second most to the seer.

Out for the night and back to drinking to our softball win.

nice on the win, my team got smoked 2X. Im the pitcher too :'(

Probably my worst ever performance.

claphamsa · 05-20-2008, 07:30 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by saldana

i can understand clap's vote for me...i am putting on a little bit of pressure...what i cant understand is why, if he were the BG, and we didnt have a night kill last night, was he not claiming a block when he came back to the thread last night? especially since i believe he was asked who he protected twice?

as for passacaglia, i have alot more trust in him right now than i do several other people...if you look at the votes that came in yesterday before people started switching, Kwhit (the sorcerer who knew the wolves) voted for Pass at 3:50, which at that point, made Pass the vote leader at 2. I cant see the sympathizer putting a wolf out in front with a vote that was spread out over 5 people at that point.

the person that I was the most interested in yesterday, and still today is where alan went with his vote. I am wondering why, when there are already 4 people with one vote, you would go ahead and add a 5th. what is the value added to the village by spreading out even further? it has been argued ad nauseum that we should narrow day one votes down to 2 or 3 horses, instead, with 4 hours left to the deadline, TheJackal just adds another horse and dilutes the possibilities of a clear lynch candidate.

since I know I am not going to get any backup on Claphamsa, the silent but apparently successful bodyguard,

vote TheJackal

I did say I protected someone, but there is no reason to reveal who it is.... Just make them easier to kill later....

me thinks you are a wolf, and this short game is gonna last 2 days :P

PurdueBrad · 05-20-2008, 07:55 AM

Claph, sorry to hear about your softball game.

Alan and Saldana, good analysis both and I can definitely see why you guys are voting the way you are.

I'll be in and out today as much as possible and should be around in the afternoon as well. I've got some questions that I'll probably post in list form a bit later.

claphamsa · 05-20-2008, 08:09 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PurdueBrad

Claph, sorry to hear about your softball game.

Alan and Saldana, good analysis both and I can definitely see why you guys are voting the way you are.

I'll be in and out today as much as possible and should be around in the afternoon as well. I've got some questions that I'll probably post in list form a bit later.

eh, happens. Loosing doesnt bother me. But walkign 12 guys in a 4 inning game sucks! Considering in 8 games this spring I walked 9.....

PurdueBrad · 05-20-2008, 08:13 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by claphamsa

eh, happens. Loosing doesnt bother me. But walkign 12 guys in a 4 inning game sucks! Considering in 8 games this spring I walked 9.....

We've had a couple games like that. What gets worse is, and don't take offense as the pitcher, but in games like that it is nearly impossible for our team to play the field because we go to sleep and then compound the walks by making six or eight errors.

PurdueBrad · 05-20-2008, 08:15 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

Checking in...mixed results on the day, looks like. I'll answer stuff in more detail tomorrow, but I switched off clap because he revealed as the BG, and I didn't want a bandwagon to form on me.

Kind of curious about the mixed results portion of this statement. We got off the sorcerer and the brutal.

Lathum · 05-20-2008, 08:27 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Alan T

Lathum, Does the bodyguard in this game get notified if he blocks a kill?

Can't answer that

PurdueBrad · 05-20-2008, 08:31 AM

HEY, there is a third possibility after looking at the rules for why there was no night kill:

1- Forgotten orders due to the chaos
2- Block by the Bodyguard
3- Block by the Hypnotist (again, this would be a role assumption and possibly a stretch)

Alan T · 05-20-2008, 08:59 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PurdueBrad

HEY, there is a third possibility after looking at the rules for why there was no night kill:

1- Forgotten orders due to the chaos
2- Block by the Bodyguard
3- Block by the Hypnotist (again, this would be a role assumption and possibly a stretch)

I brought up that third possibility previously and actually kind of hinted that i would love to hear if a hypnosis had slept someone last night because that person likely would be target #1 today. Since it is likely 6-1 right now, having a hypnosis who can confirm that they used their ability on someone last night would help provide us a pretty clear target for today's vote as well as likely clear one more person.

I mean the entire basis that I am not voting for Saldana today hinges around the idea that he was NOT put to sleep last night by some hypnosis.. If he was indeed, then my entire arguement for not voting for him crumbles... so that really is a pretty crucial piece of information for us to have today.

Alan T · 05-20-2008, 09:05 AM

If we have a hypnosis, my hunch is that it is The Jackal.. I know that may sound odd as that is where my vote currently is, but it is the only piece that fits for me right now. I'm traveling home in a few hours as I mentioned prior to the game so will be gone alot of the afternoon, so would like to clear a few things up in my mind before that if people wake up soon enough.

Passacaglia · 05-20-2008, 09:08 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PurdueBrad

Kind of curious about the mixed results portion of this statement. We got off the sorcerer and the brutal.

Yeah, I realized as I skimmed the thread during breakfast that the sorcerer is not the same as the seer.

Passacaglia · 05-20-2008, 09:15 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RendeR

And might I ad that Boston Market Meatloaf is one seriously guilty pleasure of mine. I may eat teh whole damned thing....

mm, Boston Market. There's one three blocks from me, and I don't know how I don't end up eating there more often. So good.

Passacaglia · 05-20-2008, 09:28 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Alan T

If we have a hypnosis, my hunch is that it is The Jackal.. I know that may sound odd as that is where my vote currently is, but it is the only piece that fits for me right now. I'm traveling home in a few hours as I mentioned prior to the game so will be gone alot of the afternoon, so would like to clear a few things up in my mind before that if people wake up soon enough.

Your hunch here matches mine. And, yeah, it does sound odd that you're on him. Can you explain that a little more?

PurdueBrad · 05-20-2008, 09:31 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Alan T

I brought up that third possibility previously and actually kind of hinted that i would love to hear if a hypnosis had slept someone last night because that person likely would be target #1 today. Since it is likely 6-1 right now, having a hypnosis who can confirm that they used their ability on someone last night would help provide us a pretty clear target for today's vote as well as likely clear one more person.

Sorry Alan, I must have missed it. And I do agree, it would probably be a good idea for the hypnotist to come out if they exist and say who they charmed.

Passacaglia · 05-20-2008, 09:35 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PurdueBrad

HEY, there is a third possibility after looking at the rules for why there was no night kill:

1- Forgotten orders due to the chaos
2- Block by the Bodyguard
3- Block by the Hypnotist (again, this would be a role assumption and possibly a stretch)

I don't think choice 1 is a possibility here. There was no chaos BEFORE the deadline, so I don't think orders would have been forgotten. And I'm guessing that if EagleFan was the one making the kill (I'm assuming he was since he was the brutal wolf), that it would have just fallen to the other wolf (assuming only two wolves).

Passacaglia · 05-20-2008, 09:37 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PurdueBrad

Sorry Alan, I must have missed it. And I do agree, it would probably be a good idea for the hypnotist to come out if they exist and say who they charmed.

I'd like to hear who clap protected around the same time.

Alan T · 05-20-2008, 09:49 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

I'd like to hear who clap protected around the same time.

What good does this do for us? If he didn't block anyone why tell the wolves whom he can't protect tonight? Better off just letting that information slide for now..

The Hypnotist is different since if he did block the wolf kill last night, the wolf likely already knows it, so stating whom they blocked only helps us and not them.

as for why my vote is on The Jackal, my vote will stay there unless he or someone else gives a reason for me to move it.

PurdueBrad · 05-20-2008, 09:52 AM

Yeah, I second Alan here. Clap needs to keep this to himself as it could direct the wolf on his next night kill.

Passacaglia · 05-20-2008, 09:57 AM

But what if the bodyguard did make a block, and the hypnotist didn't do anything?

PurdueBrad · 05-20-2008, 10:01 AM

The bodyguard's block doesn't tell us who did it though. The hypnotist is at least a possibility and gives us more info than most. Now, if the hypnotist blocked me for instance or even Claph, than it doesn't help but any other info would be useful as a potential wolf.

In order of possibilities, I put a BG block as third. I think it is more likely the hypnotist may have gotten lucky OR the wolves didn't have a conditional for who would do the kill if the brutal were killed.

claphamsa · 05-20-2008, 10:04 AM

yeah, im prettty sure I didnt block anyone. but You never know.

Passacaglia · 05-20-2008, 10:04 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PurdueBrad

The bodyguard's block doesn't tell us who did it though. The hypnotist is at least a possibility and gives us more info than most. Now, if the hypnotist blocked me for instance or even Claph, than it doesn't help but any other info would be useful as a potential wolf.

In order of possibilities, I put a BG block as third. I think it is more likely the hypnotist may have gotten lucky OR the wolves didn't have a conditional for who would do the kill if the brutal were killed.

You say blocked for the hypnotist -- wouldn't the hypnotist's info pretty much give us the wolf? I mean, he doesn't block a person from being attacked, he blocks a person from attacking, right?

Passacaglia · 05-20-2008, 10:07 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by claphamsa

yeah, im prettty sure I didnt block anyone. but You never know.

clap, I'm not asking you to reveal if you don't want to -- but why do you think you didn't block? We've been told that we don't know if you're told whether or not you block someone. So it's possible that you made the block, but weren't informed. Or am I missing something?

PurdueBrad · 05-20-2008, 10:07 AM

Correct, which is what I'm saying. The BG block gives us nothing so I do not want Claph to reveal anything. Hypnotist blocks an action though and that would/could give us a wolf if that is what happened.

claphamsa · 05-20-2008, 10:08 AM

From the PM I received, I get the impression that I did not block. Without quoting or getting into quesitonable quoting area, thats all I can say....

Alan T · 05-20-2008, 10:09 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

You say blocked for the hypnotist -- wouldn't the hypnotist's info pretty much give us the wolf? I mean, he doesn't block a person from being attacked, he blocks a person from attacking, right?

He blocks a person from performing their action. I don't think that it is 100% that last night they blocked a wolf, they could have actually blocked someone else and a wolf just failed to get an order in..

But the far simpler approach is if they blocked someone last night, then we lynch that person on the chance they were a wolf and blocked... Like I said earlier if there is a hypnotist that did block someone, then my reasons why I felt Saldana is a bad choice today go out the window. I don't think you can automatically turn it around and say the inverse is always true though is all... that if someone was slept, they must be a wolf..

The value in the hypnotist revealing though is that it helps give us another trusted person in a very small playing field.

PurdueBrad · 05-20-2008, 10:09 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lathum

Bodyguard- Each night you may protect one player from wolf attack, you may not protect the same player on consecutive nights.

And this is why Claph needs to not reveal, it basically would be a roadmap on who is a free kill tonight.

PurdueBrad · 05-20-2008, 10:11 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Alan T

The value in the hypnotist revealing though is that it helps give us another trusted person in a very small playing field.

Agreed and while it does not give us a guaranteed wolf, it at least points us in a *possible* direction. I would rather take a shot at the person that was hypnotized (unless it were me or Claph) rather than trying to guess based on last night's votes. I just think it could be a stronger, but not perfect, indicator.

Passacaglia · 05-20-2008, 10:12 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Alan T

He blocks a person from performing their action. I don't think that it is 100% that last night they blocked a wolf, they could have actually blocked someone else and a wolf just failed to get an order in..

But the far simpler approach is if they blocked someone last night, then we lynch that person on the chance they were a wolf and blocked... Like I said earlier if there is a hypnotist that did block someone, then my reasons why I felt Saldana is a bad choice today go out the window. I don't think you can automatically turn it around and say the inverse is always true though is all... that if someone was slept, they must be a wolf..

The value in the hypnotist revealing though is that it helps give us another trusted person in a very small playing field.

So what is it about this case that's different from other cases? It seems like you think The Jackal is the hypnotist, and have your vote on him, but are waiting for him to come out with that info, confirm your suspicion, then change your vote to whoever he points at.

Passacaglia · 05-20-2008, 10:15 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by PurdueBrad

Agreed and while it does not give us a guaranteed wolf, it at least points us in a *possible* direction. I would rather take a shot at the person that was hypnotized (unless it were me or Claph) rather than trying to guess based on last night's votes. I just think it could be a stronger, but not perfect, indicator.

Doesn't the BG do the same thing? If we know who the BG protected, and it's someone we don't trust, someone is a little more trusted.

That said, I'm fine with clap not revealing...at least until after the hypnotist comes out. Then we'll revisit the issue.

The Jackal · 05-20-2008, 10:44 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Alan T

If we have a hypnosis, my hunch is that it is The Jackal.. I know that may sound odd as that is where my vote currently is, but it is the only piece that fits for me right now. I'm traveling home in a few hours as I mentioned prior to the game so will be gone alot of the afternoon, so would like to clear a few things up in my mind before that if people wake up soon enough.

I can't really see the point of witholding information in such a small game, I was hoping to steer the vote to Saldana without drawing heat, but that looks unlikely. I am the hypnotist, and I did block saldana last night. That certainly doesn't mean saldana is a wolf, but it's something to go off.

PurdueBrad · 05-20-2008, 11:15 AM

unvote Passacaglia

vote Saldana

If this is wrong, I'm likely to return to my previous thoughts but, playing the odds, this is the most sensible move IMO.

05-19-2008, 11:13 PM	#160
claphamsa Grizzled Veteran Join Date: Nov 2007 Location: non white trash MD	ok , back... I tried to protect someone, and got the impresssion that there was no hit. From reading my pm i would say nothign happend. unless jsut seeing me hanging aroudn scared them off..... __________________ Dominating Warewolf for 0 games! GIT R DUN!!!

05-19-2008, 11:14 PM	#161
claphamsa Grizzled Veteran Join Date: Nov 2007 Location: non white trash MD	I agree with Jackyl... Saldana is awfully.... I dunno, unbeliving, and tryign to put presure on me! vote saldana __________________ Dominating Warewolf for 0 games! GIT R DUN!!!

05-20-2008, 10:04 AM	#189
claphamsa Grizzled Veteran Join Date: Nov 2007 Location: non white trash MD	yeah, im prettty sure I didnt block anyone. but You never know. __________________ Dominating Warewolf for 0 games! GIT R DUN!!!

05-20-2008, 10:08 AM	#193
claphamsa Grizzled Veteran Join Date: Nov 2007 Location: non white trash MD	From the PM I received, I get the impression that I did not block. Without quoting or getting into quesitonable quoting area, thats all I can say.... __________________ Dominating Warewolf for 0 games! GIT R DUN!!!

05-19-2008, 08:31 PM	#151
KWhit Coordinator Join Date: Jan 2003 Location: Conyers GA	That's 3 games in a row where I've been killed ridiculously early.

05-19-2008, 08:32 PM	#152
Alan T Hall Of Famer Join Date: Dec 2002 Location: Mass.	Well I'll still be around a while tonight, but as I said before the game started, I will be traveling most of tommorrow to head back home. The one question I would like answered is: Claphamsa did you block anyone or was last night a no action?

05-19-2008, 08:46 PM	#155
PurdueBrad Grizzled Veteran Join Date: Jul 2007 Location: DeKalb, IL	It might be flawed but I think it is why I think Hoops, St. Cronin, etc. get a lot of early votes because people are intimidated by how they could be as wolves. I'm not saying it's right or wrong because ultimately it's a crapshoot anyway, it's just what I use as the determining factor when I'm choosing between person A and person B, which hurts us least if voted off as a villager or could hurt as most as a wolf if allowed to continue. So I guess I need to make it clear, it's not my sole determinant, but it's what I use to tip the scales. Does that part make sense? Anyway, not I'm officially out. See you in a couple hours.

05-19-2008, 08:57 PM	#157
saldana Pro Starter Join Date: Aug 2005 Location: Bethlehem, Pa	i am really having a hard time accepting that clap is the BG. and Alan, I appreciate your fear of me from both directions...i hold the exact same opinion of you.

05-19-2008, 10:10 PM	#158
Passacaglia Coordinator Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Big Ten Country	Checking in...mixed results on the day, looks like. I'll answer stuff in more detail tomorrow, but I switched off clap because he revealed as the BG, and I didn't want a bandwagon to form on me.

05-19-2008, 10:13 PM	#159
The Jackal Coordinator Join Date: Jan 2008 Location: New Hampshire	Vote Saldana This is a hunch.

05-19-2008, 11:30 PM	#163
PurdueBrad Grizzled Veteran Join Date: Jul 2007 Location: DeKalb, IL	Quick catch-up and I agree, some of the pressure on Claphamsa is a bit over the top considering there is no counter and the best thing we have is "the roles may/may not be in the game." I think I would take his word 'cause that's a hell of a risk to fake reveal that early with the chances of a bg. From my obviously limited experience it seems like the BG role is used second most to the seer. Out for the night and back to drinking to our softball win.

05-19-2008, 11:51 PM	#164
Alan T Hall Of Famer Join Date: Dec 2002 Location: Mass.	Lathum, Does the bodyguard in this game get notified if he blocks a kill? For everyone else, if there is a hypnotizer out there, perhaps consider who you slept last night whether they might be a wolf blocked from a kill? Seems like the simplest explanation here is that the wolves felt Eaglefan wasn't in danger of lynch and left him with the night kill order.. however, I would have to assume a few things here: IF Eaglefan's fellow wolf was around near deadline while Eaglefan was only behind 2 in votes, with at least one person (myself) who could tie the vote in a heartbeat with a last minute vote change (which I have done plenty of times in my WW career).. they would have possibly worried that the possibility of Eaglefan being lynched was at least greater than 0% I would assume any wolf around at the deadline had a less likely chance of being lynched than eaglefan and likely moved the night kill order over to them executing it instead... Thus I don't know if I buy Saldana being a wolf here.. he was around at deadline and could easily have put in some backup plan. I can see where people feel he might be a bit over the top with his suspicion, but I don't know if that is any more of a wolf move at this point in the game... I think its far more likely a wolf in that situation knows the Bodyguard wont get lynched by people, and tries to fit in instead of stirring up stuff. I feel a bit less confident about Render's play but likewise am not looking super hard at him either today... I keep coming back to one of two players.. either Passacaglia or TheJackyl,.. and feel better about voting for Thejackyl today.

05-19-2008, 11:59 PM	#165
Alan T Hall Of Famer Join Date: Dec 2002 Location: Mass.	Hmm, based on the play between 7pm and 7:30ish where there were a few people around, Claphamsa had the lead over Purduebrad and Pass in votes 4-2-2 with Eaglefan only having 1. Clap moved his vote over to PurdueBrad and off of pass to make it 4-3-1-1 and basically a two horse race, but without much movement and evidentally having to leave he did his reveal at that point. Assuming his reveal is legit, then we also assume he really had to leave then. Pass instantly moved his vote over to PB, swinging the vote around 4-3 the other way, and PB removed his vote off of Clap and over to Eagle fan making it 4-2-2-1 (or something like that).. Somewhere in this range, TheJackal popped in and out but didn't move his vote, as did Render. TheJackal had his vote on eaglefan and moving it could have come across as trying to save him.. whereas Render had his vote on Claphamsa who had revealed as the BG. I think a wolf in that situation might fear the response from the next day's vote if Claphamsa is telling the truth, and especially if he makes a block in a way that validates them. So I don't know that I feel that strongly that Render is bad here

05-20-2008, 12:01 AM	#166
Alan T Hall Of Famer Join Date: Dec 2002 Location: Mass.	Taking this even further.. lets assume that Claphamsa is Eaglefan's partner in crime.. and they blew it getting a night order in... If there was someone else who was the bodyguard, they would out Clap here as fake, and probably end the game (assuming 2 wolves). So at this point I think it is fairly safe to assume no one else is a bodyguard, and look at whether or not Clap is the bodyguard, or if there is no bodyguard in this game... If I was a wolf and had revealed as the bodyguard, and gotten away with it, I would have played it up more today.. I would have come out after evidentally blowing a chance to get a night kill and try to use it to gain more trust.. I would say that I did indeed block the kill but the role does not allow me to see who the attacker was. Maybe I am wrong here, but the way claphamsa has played the reveal and since, I don't think he is lying about being the bodyguard either...

05-20-2008, 12:03 AM	#167
Alan T Hall Of Famer Join Date: Dec 2002 Location: Mass.	I think for today, I obviously trust PurdueBrad as a villager, and I'll give the benefit of the doubt to Render, Claphamsa, Saldana... and for now I'll give Pass a pass too.. That really only leaves me with one person Vote TheJackal

05-20-2008, 07:15 AM	#168
saldana Pro Starter Join Date: Aug 2005 Location: Bethlehem, Pa	i can understand clap's vote for me...i am putting on a little bit of pressure...what i cant understand is why, if he were the BG, and we didnt have a night kill last night, was he not claiming a block when he came back to the thread last night? especially since i believe he was asked who he protected twice? as for passacaglia, i have alot more trust in him right now than i do several other people...if you look at the votes that came in yesterday before people started switching, Kwhit (the sorcerer who knew the wolves) voted for Pass at 3:50, which at that point, made Pass the vote leader at 2. I cant see the sympathizer putting a wolf out in front with a vote that was spread out over 5 people at that point. the person that I was the most interested in yesterday, and still today is where alan went with his vote. I am wondering why, when there are already 4 people with one vote, you would go ahead and add a 5th. what is the value added to the village by spreading out even further? it has been argued ad nauseum that we should narrow day one votes down to 2 or 3 horses, instead, with 4 hours left to the deadline, TheJackal just adds another horse and dilutes the possibilities of a clear lynch candidate. since I know I am not going to get any backup on Claphamsa, the silent but apparently successful bodyguard, vote TheJackal

05-20-2008, 07:55 AM	#171
PurdueBrad Grizzled Veteran Join Date: Jul 2007 Location: DeKalb, IL	Claph, sorry to hear about your softball game. Alan and Saldana, good analysis both and I can definitely see why you guys are voting the way you are. I'll be in and out today as much as possible and should be around in the afternoon as well. I've got some questions that I'll probably post in list form a bit later.

05-20-2008, 08:31 AM	#176
PurdueBrad Grizzled Veteran Join Date: Jul 2007 Location: DeKalb, IL	HEY, there is a third possibility after looking at the rules for why there was no night kill: 1- Forgotten orders due to the chaos 2- Block by the Bodyguard 3- Block by the Hypnotist (again, this would be a role assumption and possibly a stretch)

05-20-2008, 09:05 AM	#178
Alan T Hall Of Famer Join Date: Dec 2002 Location: Mass.	If we have a hypnosis, my hunch is that it is The Jackal.. I know that may sound odd as that is where my vote currently is, but it is the only piece that fits for me right now. I'm traveling home in a few hours as I mentioned prior to the game so will be gone alot of the afternoon, so would like to clear a few things up in my mind before that if people wake up soon enough.

05-20-2008, 09:52 AM	#186
PurdueBrad Grizzled Veteran Join Date: Jul 2007 Location: DeKalb, IL	Yeah, I second Alan here. Clap needs to keep this to himself as it could direct the wolf on his next night kill.

05-20-2008, 09:57 AM	#187
Passacaglia Coordinator Join Date: Oct 2000 Location: Big Ten Country	But what if the bodyguard did make a block, and the hypnotist didn't do anything?

05-20-2008, 10:01 AM	#188
PurdueBrad Grizzled Veteran Join Date: Jul 2007 Location: DeKalb, IL	The bodyguard's block doesn't tell us who did it though. The hypnotist is at least a possibility and gives us more info than most. Now, if the hypnotist blocked me for instance or even Claph, than it doesn't help but any other info would be useful as a potential wolf. In order of possibilities, I put a BG block as third. I think it is more likely the hypnotist may have gotten lucky OR the wolves didn't have a conditional for who would do the kill if the brutal were killed.

05-20-2008, 10:07 AM	#192
PurdueBrad Grizzled Veteran Join Date: Jul 2007 Location: DeKalb, IL	Correct, which is what I'm saying. The BG block gives us nothing so I do not want Claph to reveal anything. Hypnotist blocks an action though and that would/could give us a wolf if that is what happened.

05-20-2008, 11:15 AM	#200
PurdueBrad Grizzled Veteran Join Date: Jul 2007 Location: DeKalb, IL	unvote Passacaglia vote Saldana If this is wrong, I'm likely to return to my previous thoughts but, playing the odds, this is the most sensible move IMO.

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