Top 5 Stock Picks

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by Edward64

SPCE is down 20+% since I bought it. Good think I didn't put much into it but it goes to show I'm lousy at this. Should have stuck with mutual funds and ETFs.

Did my monthly portfolio roundup and am finally in the black!

As of last Fri, I am up 39% on SPCE. It went down about 40% sometime in Dec and has rebounded nicely. Still truly speculative and I only have a small amount (to show my support of the dream).

[Edward64]

Up 176% on SPCE. I'm an investing genius (not) !!

[QuikSand]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

Well, I'm trying to stay on the bright side here. I made enough on this trade to count it in number of paychecks so I shouldn't be as pissed off as I am that I apparently sold way too early. HL at 3.06 this morning. I still hold a chunk, but it's less than half of where I was when i was rising through the 2.00...2.30...2.50...

Well, HL is back in the $1.80 range. I'm fully out, didn't sell at the top but did well enough.

Right now, I'm almost entirely out of stocks. Just see more downside ahead, still. I have a wrong-side investment in SH, but don't really like the feeling of profiting on that a lot.


Longer term, I'm wondering about Carnival Cruise Lines. I don't think it's a buy right now, but that looks like a rebound candidate, at some level - even if it's to buy publicly and wait for private equity takeover (a reasonable short term play). I don't think that's a $50 stock again anytime soon, but it might be a... #28 stock? Sitting at $12 today.

Let's keep an eye on it.


I'll almost certainly get back into HL at some point, again. I can't quit you.

[QuikSand]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

So... I have ridden HL on and off for the last 15 years. I listen to the shareholder meetings, I pay attention.

In the last few days, they have taken a beating, down from $2.20 or so to close at $1.58 today. If you have the ability to sit and wait, I think this is a very strong play at this price range.

The issues of the moment are, quite possibly, transitory. They are having profitability issues right now with one of their major sites. It's not that they can't fig up silver and copper, they are stuck in some bad contracts. And, they are also suffering from metal-based tariff talk - the markets are really spooked about that. I think the drop to the $1.50 range is a substantial overreaction.

My price target, in a medium to long term, is more like... gulp... $3.50. Possibly more. I bought two tranches recently at and then under $2.00, and I am going back for more tomorrow unless it opens really strongly, which I don't expect. I was out of the stock for some time, but I think it has moved into urgent buy territory, and I'm not going to miss it.

The biggest risk I see is that the company could be the target of private equity, who might want to buy the whole thing and force a sale under $2.00 That would presumably mean a nice short term hit, but not the longer term double-or-more that I think this company genuinely has in it.

Well, I was not strong enough to continue the ride through the pandemic. This (above) was from a year ago. I bet heavily (for me) on HL, and made around +70% in 7 months. My 11yo daughter opened a Robinhood account, and after talking with me put $20 into 11 shares of HL at $1.71. Yesterday she sold 5 of them at $4.42, and more than covered her initial stake. She thinks investing is always going to be like this. Ha.

[Arles]

I'm in pretty heavy on Draft King options ($40 and $45 through Aug 21) and they have had a good week. If that stock can get to $40 as the football buzz begins, I could make 300-400%

[cuervo72]

RIP Stein Mart.

[QuikSand]

Originally Posted by cuervo72

RIP Stein Mart.

Yeah, bummed. I always tend to carry a little bit of a torch for former long plays like this.

My take then was, nutshelled, retail sucks but blue collar retail isn't going to just die, so these guys should remain viable.

Maybe it was covid, maybe it was just the eventual way of all things in non-special retail. Glad I got fully out (I was only aboard for a short time) but my wife's family will surely miss them.

[QuikSand]

Also, my daughter sold off her remaining HL shared at 6.60, missing the absolute high by only a few pennies. Maybe she's a savant.

We're now into electric trucks, via DPHC, effectively the old Lordstown Assembly plant in Ohio being converted to new use.

[PilotMan]

How's everyone liking that 5 for 1 Tesla stock split announcement?

I know I am overexposed, but it's now a solid 10% of my 401k all by itself, and I am not letting it go.

[Arles]

If you guys like Tesla, there's a good ETF out there that has TSLA as its highest holding. It's called ARKK. Year to date it has made about 70% and has some other good companies. It's marketed as an innovation fund and has Tesla, Square, Roku, Invitae and Proto labs. It's only about $84 a share:

Just a moment...

[PilotMan]

Originally Posted by Arles

If you guys like Tesla, there's a good ETF out there that has TSLA as its highest holding. It's called ARKK. Year to date it has made about 70% and has some other good companies. It's marketed as an innovation fund and has Tesla, Square, Roku, Invitae and Proto labs. It's only about $84 a share:

Just a moment...

It's funny that you mentioned ARKK, because I've got that as a holding as well. (along with a substantial amount of ROKU).

[Arles]

I'm not sure I'd recommend TSLA, ROKU and an ETF that has as bunch of TSLA and ROKU as a diversification strategy - but it has worked well the past few months!

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by PilotMan

It's funny that you mentioned ARKK, because I've got that as a holding as well. (along with a substantial amount of ROKU).

ARKK came up somewhere in my reading and I was intrigued. I like the philosophy of disruptor companies and may dip into it.

[PilotMan]

Originally Posted by Arles

I'm not sure I'd recommend TSLA, ROKU and an ETF that has as bunch of TSLA and ROKU as a diversification strategy - but it has worked well the past few months!

Don't worry, I've got a bunch of MJ too, and that's been a complete loser thus far, but it's only a matter of time for it. So I'll just keep buying it up at the low price. The industry has too much potential for it to flag forever.

[JPhillips]

I just saw that lumber commodity prices have exploded since July 1.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by PilotMan

Don't worry, I've got a bunch of MJ too, and that's been a complete loser thus far, but it's only a matter of time for it. So I'll just keep buying it up at the low price. The industry has too much potential for it to flag forever.

Is MJ the marijuana ETF?

[PilotMan]

It is

[NobodyHere]

Someday I'll be brave enough to invest in individual stocks.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by PilotMan

It's funny that you mentioned ARKK, because I've got that as a holding as well. (along with a substantial amount of ROKU).

I bought a small position into ARKK ... we shall see.

[Arles]

I may have sat out the Tesla ride to 2,000 - but I did make a bunch on Apple going to almost 500 today. Today was the last day to own shares and be eligible for the split. I figured it would go up when I bought option calls last night, but I wasn't ready for a $20 increase in one day.

We are about the point to look at puts for Spy, AAPL and TSLA. All these big boys seem very overbought.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by Arles

I may have sat out the Tesla ride to 2,000 - but I did make a bunch on Apple going to almost 500 today. Today was the last day to own shares and be eligible for the split. I figured it would go up when I bought option calls last night, but I wasn't ready for a $20 increase in one day.

We are about the point to look at puts for Spy, AAPL and TSLA. All these big boys seem very overbought.

Apple is just crazy right now. I am overweight but primarily because Apple has like doubled in the past 2-3 years. My guess is iPhone 12 will be a hit so stock will continue to rise in the near term.

When my son started working, we started a ROTH for him. The first 2 stocks he bought (even though I told him to do S&P ETF) were Tesla and Boeing. Boeing was sucking even before the Coronavirus but Tesla has exceeded all expectations. Unfortunately, I never bought Tesla stock for me but I sleep just fine with Apple.

Congrats to Elon Musk. Even as a first class jerk, he is the driving force moving us to electric vehicles. But just like Yahoo, I feel that crown can be stripped relatively easily as major auto makers are catching up. With Apple, its got this crazy loyal following and more than one product.

[Arles]

The split idea was genius for both as they were starting to lose steam before it. Telsa was also extremely overvalued at 1500, so they needed something to keep the train going. Now, when they split, their price will be more "reasonable" for investors. I'm shocked Nvidia didn't announce one on their earnings to get another bump.

I do think we are in store for some red days early next week unless the stimulus comes in. It's a crazy time to be an investor - that much is true.

[STK]

Originally Posted by Arles

I Today was the last day to own shares and be eligible for the split.

To be clear, the rights to the share split transfers to the purchaser until 8/31. It is not like if you buy apple on Monday at ~495 dollars that your shares will not be eligible for the split.

[QuikSand]

Originally Posted by QuikSand

We're now into electric trucks, via DPHC, effectively the old Lordstown Assembly plant in Ohio being converted to new use.

Good move today (over 13%) and some spotlight in what's left of the Motley Fool:

Why Shares of Electric Pickup Start-Up DiamondPeak Holdings Soared 63.9% in August

[Edward64]

My portfolio has been overweight on Apple just because of their run up in the past 2-4+ years. No where as good as Tesla this year but still pretty darn good.

I think the iPhone 12 has been successful for them but that's all factored into stock price now so I've taken some profits and added to my core funds like SCHD and VDIGX.

GBTC Grayscale Bitcoin Trust has caught my eye because of the run-up. I know it's at the high right now but was thinking about buying a very small chunk to add to my "fun" but risky 5% portfolio.

Anyone have any insights or predictions on the future of Bitcoin?

[Arles]

I don't know - a lot of the people that pump and dump penny stocks/SPACs are all about bitcoin now. I just remember this time three years ago when it was in a frenzy up to $13K and then dumped back down to 3K. There two cryptos I like (and own):

1. USD coin (USDC) - it's backed by the US Dollar. I buy it through an app called Celsius and get paid 10.51% a year (compounded monthly) to hold it there.

2. Paxos Gold coin (PAXG) - it is backed by gold in a trust in London. In the future, I think this could be a very valuable digital currency if BTC/ETH start dumping. You can also make 5% if you hold it in an app like Celsius. Here's a video on how this coin is also a great way to own gold: