Baseball Mogul 2006 Preview Thread (Yes, Virginia, there ARE lefties and righties!)

[Ben E Lou]

Originally Posted by Dreslough

Hey guys, we had a BIG poll among our users about which features to add:

http://www.sportsmogul.com/vbulletin...threadid=55470

The top 6 features made the game, along with a few others from lower on the list (like Drag-and-Drop).

Lefty/Righty and Hiring/Firing managers were #8 and #9.

If I had trusted my instincts and knowledge about baseball, I probably wouldn't have added Player Personalities to this year's game. I have yet to see any research showing that happy baseball players perform better.

But the requests for this feature were overwhelming. And now that I have the system working, I find that it's a total blast to try to make trades and shuffle rosters to build the right clubhouse atmosphere. The addition of No Trade Clauses and Player Options creates a game where it matters how happy players are, how much they like their teammates, and how much they want to be on a winning team.

Anyway, despite the poll, I was still tempted to add Lefty-Righty stats along with multiple lineups. I'm a lifelong baseball fan, SABR member for 10 years, and I've been writing baseball games literally since I was 5 years old. I even programmed the four different lineup screens in Tony La Russa Baseball 3.

I chose to leave Lefty/Righty stats out of BB2K6 for a few reasons.

1. THE HASSLE OF SETTING LINEUPS.

2. STAT AVAILABILITY. We license the Lahman Baseball Database and it doesn't have Lefty-Righty stats. This leaves us with a few options. We can pay STATS Inc. $10,000+ for the stats we want (not a realistic option). Or we can assign platoon differentials to each player. These could either be random, or "league average" (e.g. all Lefty hitters in the game would bat 6% better against Righty pitchers, with 11% more power).

I'm not too happy with either of these options. What's the point in recording megabytes of lefty-righty data if it doesn't actually tell you anything useful about the player (for example, by revealing that the player actually has a much larger platoon differential than the average).

With a few exceptions, like the fact that the Lahman Database doesn't have blown saves, the Historical and Simulated stats blend seamlessly into each other in Baseball Mogul. I'd rather you didn't start a game in 1961 only to find that the Scouting Report for Roger Maris has no Historical Lefty-Righty data, and that the Simulated data wasn't based in any way on his real-life performance.

3. DESIGN PHILOSOPHY -- to be an addictive and realistic game that is accessible to EVERYONE. There are 30 million fantasy baseball players in the United States. Between OOTP, Diamond Mind, PureSim and Baseball Mogul, we probably have less than 500,000 customers. Those other 29.5 million fantasy baseball fans SHOULD be buying sims. They certainly spend time and money on their hobby. But it's a lot easier to set your lineups in Yahoo Fantasy Basbeall than in OOTP.

I think you will find with BM2K6 that it creates a totally deep, authentic, baseball world that you cannot pull yourself away from. If I'm wrong, I'm really glad there other games out there like OOTP that might fit you better.

We were both working at Midway last year, so BM2K5 was only a minor upgrade. BM2K6 on the other hand, is without a doubt the most-improved Baseball Mogul ever. We should have the demo ready this month so I hope you guys at least give it a try.

Thanks!

Clay

Thanks Clay. Much appreciated!

[Dreslough]

Originally Posted by SkyDog

I'm not sure you CAN play a game out as a manager. This is definitely a career, GM-oriented game. I *think* you can watch a game play out, but not manage it. Let me double-check...

You can watch the game, at-bat by at-bat, in the Play-By-Play screen. Just click F10 then play a day and it will go through all the games in slo-mo, or just your team, depending on what you select in the Options Dialog.

Clay

[CraigSca]

Excellent post, Clay.

I have yet to see a baseball game that has a simple, intuitive way to implement and have a player input lefty/righty/no DH/DH lineups.

My thinking is that someone is going to have to think outside the box rather do the straight interpretation that most games use today.

[henry296]

Clay,

Thanks for answer. It is mostly about how to assign the ratings instead of how to resolve the at-bats if you were to add left/right splits..

[Ksyrup]

The demo will be available this month, or week? Isn't the d/l version supposed to be available for purchase in less than 2 weeks?

[SirFozzie]

I'm sorry, Clay, L/R splits/matchups are a pivotal part of the game, and it's ridiculous that this many iterations in, it doesn't seem to matter if a person bats lefty, righty, or swings the bat with the trout in his rectum.

[Swaggs]

If it isn't too expensive, I might give it a try again for the first time in a few years.

[HomerJSimpson]

Originally Posted by SirFozzie

I'm sorry, Clay, L/R splits/matchups are a pivotal part of the game, and it's ridiculous that this many iterations in, it doesn't seem to matter if a person bats lefty, righty, or swings the bat with the trout in his rectum.

Ditto. Player personalities but no left/right splits.

[Jeff Olsen]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

But that makes no sense when the current season only lasts, potentially, 50 seconds, or even 30-60 minutes at most. In a week, a regular player will be reading about Greg Maddux's funeral on his player card. If you play even 20 years, you're nearly 100% into fictional players.

Yes, but unitl BBM 2K4, you weren't able to start with fictional players unless someone created them.

[McSweeny]

when i first read this thread i was all set to buy the game

then all the L/R stuff came up and i was having second thoughts

now that i've seen what Clay had to say on the matter (along with a few others), i'm all set to pick this up. I'm hoping that it'll be very good. The Red Sox play their first game tonight and it's pretty much been baseball 24/7 in my head for the last few weeks (months...)

[Masked]

Originally Posted by SirFozzie

I'm sorry, Clay, L/R splits/matchups are a pivotal part of the game, and it's ridiculous that this many iterations in, it doesn't seem to matter if a person bats lefty, righty, or swings the bat with the trout in his rectum.

I pretty much feel the same way when looking at the game's specs; however, I suspect that once I actually start playing the game, I won't miss L/R splits.

I love OOTP list of features, but I have never been able to get into the game. I also find that I turn off several features because I find them to be a pain (rule 5 draft, etc).

[Ksyrup]

After all is said and done, I'll probably pick it up as well. It certainly appears to be a much more improved version of the game since I last played, and that's all I wanted 5 years ago. I'm happy to support a developer who continues to improve his/her product.

[NevStar]

Originally Posted by SirFozzie

I'm sorry, Clay, L/R splits/matchups are a pivotal part of the game, and it's ridiculous that this many iterations in, it doesn't seem to matter if a person bats lefty, righty, or swings the bat with the trout in his rectum.

I refuse to buy BM until "Trout Rectum Hitters Introduced in Year:" is in the options screen right under "Women Players Introduced:"

[Jeff Olsen]

Originally Posted by Dreslough

2. STAT AVAILABILITY. We license the Lahman Baseball Database and it doesn't have Lefty-Righty stats. This leaves us with a few options. We can pay STATS Inc. $10,000+ for the stats we want (not a realistic option). Or we can assign platoon differentials to each player. These could either be random, or "league average" (e.g. all Lefty hitters in the game would bat 6% better against Righty pitchers, with 11% more power).

I'm not too happy with either of these options. What's the point in recording megabytes of lefty-righty data if it doesn't actually tell you anything useful about the player (for example, by revealing that the player actually has a much larger platoon differential than the average).

Exactly as I had suspected.

[SirFozzie]

Originally Posted by NevStar

I refuse to buy BM until "Trout Rectum Hitters Introduced in Year:" is in the options screen right under "Women Players Introduced:"

Night Soil Lover :P

[SirFozzie]

Originally Posted by Jeff Olsen

Exactly as I had suspected.

so because you can't do it 100% accurately for current players, it becomes useless for the hundred or so years down the road that will follow?

Weak.

[Young Drachma]

I say one thing, this thread has put Mogul back on my radar as a game I might check out this year.

[MizzouRah]

Originally Posted by McSweeny

when i first read this thread i was all set to buy the game

then all the L/R stuff came up and i was having second thoughts

now that i've seen what Clay had to say on the matter (along with a few others), i'm all set to pick this up. I'm hoping that it'll be very good. The Red Sox play their first game tonight and it's pretty much been baseball 24/7 in my head for the last few weeks (months...)

I'm with you. After Clay's post, this game has definitly peaked my interest... especially since either MVP or MLB 2006 will be taking a long time just to complete one season.

I have baseball fever!


Todd

[Dreslough]

Originally Posted by henry296

Clay,

Thanks for answer. It is mostly about how to assign the ratings instead of how to resolve the at-bats if you were to add left/right splits..

There's a chance that I'm missing the point, or at least PART of the point, of this whole thread.

Baseball Mogul 2006 DOES have Lefty/Righty matchups. The platoon differential is part of the game and affects the simulation. You can view player handedness in the new Biography page.

Moreover, lefty/righty differentials are recorded for all the stadiums in the game (and are calculated for any stadium you build). So, you are better off adding some lefty sluggers to your lineup if you play in Yankee Stadium. And it's also a good idea to have some lefty starters to keep the opposing lefties in the park.

So, our lefty/righty SIMULATION code is actually quite robust, and as accurate as I could make it with the data we have.

The 2 things we don't have are:

1) Screens to set different lineups

2) Year-by-year lefty/righty stats in the Scouting Report

#1 is a somewhat complicated programming issue, but also a complicated interface issue as we've seen mentioned by others in this thread.

If you want to change your lineup before a World Series game against a lefty starter, you can do that, and it's probably a good idea.

#2 is a bigger programming issue, and also an issue with finding affordable lefty-righty stats.

Given these hurdles, I decided not to display the stats since they wouldn't actually TELL you anything useful about a player (since they all have the same league average platoon differential, because Lahman doesn't include their REAL lefty-righty stats).

Of course, stats aren't just about USEFULNESS. I care whether Barry Bonds hits 800 homers because I DO -- not because it will affect my decision about whether to bat him 3rd or 4th (or 1st!)

Nevertheless, in the case of paying for and/or recording and/or displaying lefty/righty stats in this version, I decided it wasn't worth all the work. But I should clarify that we have implemented platoon differentials into the game, and they do affect strategy.

Clay

[Dreslough]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

The demo will be available this month, or week? Isn't the d/l version supposed to be available for purchase in less than 2 weeks?

We actually build the demo AFTER the full game is done, since we just have to add some code that limits it to a single-season.

And I said this month because if I said the actual target date (probably around March 19th), I'd get reamed when we miss it by a few days.



Clay

[Ksyrup]

Clay, thanks for that explanation. I feel somewhat better about this issue than when we started.


If the righty/lefty simulation code is in the game, does the AI recognize it, in both game and lineup situations? In other words, when you suggest we should manually change a lineup before our team faces a lefty pitcher, is that because the AI won't automatically do that (either for us or the computer-controlled teams)? Likewise, for in-game situations - which we can't control anyway - will the AI manager make moves in recognition of the L/R platoon differential - will the AI bring in that lefty to face a key lefty hitter in the late innings?

[Arles]

Clay's post makes a lot of sense. Essentially, it seems lefty-righty matchups do have an effect over time, esp when you look at lefty pitchers and stadiums. But, Clay's decision not to include them on a player by player basis makes even more sense as they may not be indictative of how that player would really perform and could be misleading.

The more I work on games, the more I think this last point is a big one. The worst thing you can do is to have people think something matters on a micro level - to only have it be almost meaningless. I've had run-ins with certain aspects in both TDCB and TPF that did not have the impact I originally thought they would when I designed the game - and ended up being somewhat frustrating for gamers in the released product. So, the fact that Clay has said he's not going to "trick" people by showing lefty and righty matchups on a micro player level when they aren't as significant as the macro level is a credit to him. My guess is that if he did the latter (seems to be his only option without ponying up for the Stats), there would be just as many complaints as there are for the feature not being included. And, given developers have a fixed timeframe, it makes more sense to add in things he has full stats and/or designs for.

Great post, Clay, and I think it really shows some of the pitfalls developers face in this genre.

[DanGarion]

I think I will check out BM2006 for the first time ever. I like what I see.

[Bomber]

How much are stats from these guys?

http://www.baseballinfosolutions.com/

[Ben E Lou]

Originally Posted by Dreslough

We actually build the demo AFTER the full game is done, since we just have to add some code that limits it to a single-season.

And I said this month because if I said the actual target date (probably around March 19th), I'd get reamed when we miss it by a few days.



Clay

Oh come on, Clay. It isn't like you have a reputation for MAKING release dates, anyway.

[Ben E Lou]

Originally Posted by Bomber

How much are stats from these guys?

http://www.baseballinfosolutions.com/

It looks like $20 per season, with only 2003 and 2004 being available, unless I'm missing something. I had no idea that stats were so expensive.

I have to say it: it is pretty stunning that while Clay would take the time during crunch time before his release to post with such great detail about this issue, and two people still choose to berate him and roll eyes at him. While some may not like his decision, it certainly would appear that he's thought it through pretty thoroughly. Whatever happened to politely agreeing to disagree, and just moving on to another game???

I, for one, appreciate him taking the time to come to a forum he's never frequented before, (one that he KNEW before coming here, by the way, has a number of skeptics about his game) and politely give detailed responses to big questions.

[Ksyrup]

I think the ratio of buyers to non-buyers thanks to this thread and his posts will ultimately be worth it...

[DanGarion]

Originally Posted by SkyDog

It looks like $20 per season, with only 2003 and 2004 being available, unless I'm missing something. I had no idea that stats were so expensive.

I have to say it: it is pretty stunning that while Clay would take the time during crunch time before his release to post with such great detail about this issue, and two people still choose to berate him and roll eyes at him. While some may not like his decision, it certainly would appear that he's thought it through pretty thoroughly. Whatever happened to politely agreeing to disagree, and just moving on to another game???

I, for one, appreciate him taking the time to come to a forum he's never frequented before, (one that he KNEW before coming here, by the way, has a number of skeptics about his game) and politely give detailed responses to big questions.

That's one of the things I really like about the FOFC site, a number of developers spend their time checking here and answering questions. This site is sort of a hub for a number of developers and I appreciate any time they spend answering any one of our questions.

[SirFozzie]

Originally Posted by Clay Dreslough

#2 is a bigger programming issue, and also an issue with finding affordable lefty-righty stats.

Given these hurdles, I decided not to display the stats since they wouldn't actually TELL you anything useful about a player (since they all have the same league average platoon differential, because Lahman doesn't include their REAL lefty-righty stats).

so Every player's the same differential?

well, that's not as bad.

But it's nowhere near good or acceptable.

[VPI97]

Originally Posted by SkyDog

I, for one, appreciate him taking the time to come to a forum he's never frequented before, (one that he KNEW before coming here, by the way, has a number of skeptics about his game) and politely give detailed responses to big questions.

Agreed.

[Huckleberry]

Originally Posted by Dreslough

There's a chance that I'm missing the point, or at least PART of the point, of this whole thread.

Baseball Mogul 2006 DOES have Lefty/Righty matchups. The platoon differential is part of the game and affects the simulation. You can view player handedness in the new Biography page.

Moreover, lefty/righty differentials are recorded for all the stadiums in the game (and are calculated for any stadium you build). So, you are better off adding some lefty sluggers to your lineup if you play in Yankee Stadium. And it's also a good idea to have some lefty starters to keep the opposing lefties in the park.

So, our lefty/righty SIMULATION code is actually quite robust, and as accurate as I could make it with the data we have.

Holy platoon split, Batman.

Why didn't you say that earlier? I know I'm only one guy on this thread full of complaints, but that's good enough for me on a macro-sim level. I specifically mentioned the effects of roster management being negated by a complete lack of L/R split code.

Quick question which will probably fan the flames:

What about switch-hitters? I take it that at this time someone like Lance Berkman is not accurately modeled. Berkman is a switch-hitter who performs much better from the left side of the plate. In BBM, I assume that he simply hits the same from both sides.

Thanks for all the responses.

[Ben E Lou]

Originally Posted by Huckleberry

Holy platoon split, Batman.

Why didn't you say that earlier? I know I'm only one guy on this thread full of complaints, but that's good enough for me on a macro-sim level. I specifically mentioned the effects of roster management being negated by a complete lack of L/R split code.

Quick question which will probably fan the flames:

What about switch-hitters? I take it that at this time someone like Lance Berkman is not accurately modeled. Berkman is a switch-hitter who performs much better from the left side of the plate. In BBM, I assume that he simply hits the same from both sides.

Thanks for all the responses.

Since Clay's not around now, I'll just comment that I do see fictional switch-hitters in the game. Based on Clay's explanation ("...they all have the same league average platoon differential..."), I think it is safe to assume that switch-hitters before a little better than their ratings from both sides of the plate.

[dawgfan]

Originally Posted by Dreslough

There's a chance that I'm missing the point, or at least PART of the point, of this whole thread.

Baseball Mogul 2006 DOES have Lefty/Righty matchups. The platoon differential is part of the game and affects the simulation. You can view player handedness in the new Biography page.

Moreover, lefty/righty differentials are recorded for all the stadiums in the game (and are calculated for any stadium you build). So, you are better off adding some lefty sluggers to your lineup if you play in Yankee Stadium. And it's also a good idea to have some lefty starters to keep the opposing lefties in the park.

So, our lefty/righty SIMULATION code is actually quite robust, and as accurate as I could make it with the data we have.

Great info. A follow-up question for you - there seems to be a growing consensus in the SABR community that platoon differentials are in reality fairly consistent (at least for right-handed hitters) - that if you were to give players enough at-bats in both platoon splits for meaningful data, we'd find that pretty much all right-handed hitters do X amount better against lefty pitchers than righties.

Is this how the platoon differential works in BBM, i.e. righty hitters have a set bonus hitting againsts lefties (subject to random variation of course), etc?

[Huckleberry]

Originally Posted by dawgfan

Great info. A follow-up question for you - there seems to be a growing consensus in the SABR community that platoon differentials are in reality fairly consistent (at least for right-handed hitters) - that if you were to give players enough at-bats in both platoon splits for meaningful data, we'd find that pretty much all right-handed hitters do X amount better against lefty pitchers than righties.

Is this how the platoon differential works in BBM, i.e. righty hitters have a set bonus hitting againsts lefties (subject to random variation of course), etc?

I forgot to mention this. The league-average platoon split is fine with me because of this research for a macro-sim purpose.

It's the switch-hitter thing that would still be a minor annoyance.

[Ben E Lou]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but didn't this...

Originally Posted by Clay

Given these hurdles, I decided not to display the stats since they wouldn't actually TELL you anything useful about a player (since they all have the same league average platoon differential, because Lahman doesn't include their REAL lefty-righty stats).

...give a strong indication that it is a league-average split for every player? It sounds like the "tell you anything useful about a player" comment means this:

Just because Joe Schlabotnik hit .342 against lefties in 2035 doesn't mean that he's a better hitter against lefties than Jimmy Johansen, who hit .274 against lefties, because they actually have the exact same (hidden) contact rating and both bat right-handed. It just means that Schlabotnik got lucky this year.

With that being the system, it completely makes sense to me why you DON'T want to display L/R stats: it would encourage gamers to make decisions based on something that actually is meaningless.

[jbmagic]

Skydog makes a good point.

Baseball Mogul 2006, you won't be able to turn off ratings.

if you turn off ratings then i can see how the lefty/righty stats are important to show.

[Ben E Lou]

Originally Posted by jbmagic

Skydog makes a good point.

Baseball Mogul 2006, you won't be able to turn off ratings.

if you turn off ratings then i can see how the lefty/righty stats are important to show.

No, you're not getting it. Based on what Clay said, whether ratings are on or off, the L/R stats are meaningless. They give you no real information.

[dawgfan]

Originally Posted by SirFozzie

so Every player's the same differential?

well, that's not as bad.

But it's nowhere near good or acceptable.

OK, ok - we get it. You're not going to buy BBM2K6.

And just for the sake of argument, you do realize that there's a growing consensus that platoon splits are standard, at least for right-handed hitters, and not specific to individual difference?

[SirFozzie]

I do recognize bullshit when I hear it, yes.

[dawgfan]

Originally Posted by SkyDog

Correct me if I'm wrong, but didn't this...

...give a strong indication that it is a league-average split for every player? It sounds like the "tell you anything useful about a player" comment means this:

Just because Joe Schlabotnik hit .342 against lefties in 2035 doesn't mean that he's a better hitter against lefties than Jimmy Johansen, who hit .274 against lefties, because they actually have the exact same (hidden) contact rating and both bat right-handed. It just means that Schlabotnik got lucky this year.

With that being the system, it completely makes sense to me why you DON'T want to display L/R stats: it would encourage gamers to make decisions based on something that actually is meaningless.

I would assume that is correct. And FWIW, this probably isn't far from how it works in reality, once you correct for small sample sizes, based on growing research from the SABR community.

[Huckleberry]

Originally Posted by SirFozzie

I do recognize bullshit when I hear it, yes.

Curious as to what you're talking about.

dawgfan is correct that it's looking more and more like platoon difference are fairly standard with very few exceptions. The reason they may appear non-standard for many players appears to be sample size moreso than individual differences.

[dawgfan]

Originally Posted by SirFozzie

I do recognize bullshit when I hear it, yes.

What bullshit are you referring to?

[CraigSca]

Originally Posted by dawgfan

I would assume that is correct. And FWIW, this probably isn't far from how it works in reality, once you correct for small sample sizes, based on growing research from the SABR community.

Interestingly, if I interpret him correctly, Bill James' latest paper disagrees with this growing research (that all splits are essentially the same). In fact, in this paper he even says he's not sure, but there may actually be something to clutch performance as well.

[lynchjm24]

I'm going to buy this game 100% based on this thread.

So, thanks Clay and Skydog.

[dawgfan]

Originally Posted by CraigSca

Interestingly, if I interpret him correctly, Bill James' latest paper disagrees with this growing research (that all splits are essentially the same). In fact, in this paper he even says he's not sure, but there may actually be something to clutch performance as well.

Is this paper available for public consumption? I'd love to read it.

[cougarfreak]

Never played baseball mogul, can you in game "manage" your team, or is it strictly a gm type game?

[Buccaneer]

Originally Posted by From Clay

The historical seasons and expansion still haven't been very well tested, and the rosters could use some feedback.

SD, a simple "no, it hasn't been tested yet" would have sufficed. Forget your manners?

[Galaril]

Originally Posted by cougarfreak

Never played baseball mogul, can you in game "manage" your team, or is it strictly a gm type game?

I too am gonna pick this up based on on Skydog and Clays Information Thanks. And yes Clay mentioned you can watch a game play out ib the sim one day mode but jsut watch you can't make any decisions in game such as change relievers from the way it sounds. Also, How much is it going to cost? How much was last years game?

[Ben E Lou]

Originally Posted by Buccaneer

SD, a simple "no, it hasn't been tested yet" would have sufficed. Forget your manners?

I had no clue whether or not it had been tested--nor did I care. I'm not a beta tester, per se. I got the beta build just yesterday, to do the preview. There's no way I could know what has and hasn't been tested.

[Buccaneer]

My mistake.