NFL Week 16

[Scoobz0202]

Originally Posted by Ronnie Dobbs3

Romo out the rest of the year??? https://twitter.com/AdamSchefter/sta...30451582656512

Reminds me of when he beat the 49ers with a broken rib and a collapsed lung or something. Came from behind to beat the Skins with a possible season ending back injury? Dude is pretty tough even with his "flaws."

Wonder what the injury is.

edit: And this sucks. I hate hearing back injury because I hope this doesn't linger the rest of his career. And now watch Jerry Jones keep Jason G. around and uses this as an excuse to do it.

Maybe now Demarco Murray will get 25+ carries.

[markprior22]

With all the shit Romo takes, I would think the line would move about 7 points in the Cowboys favor with him out. Come on Kyle!!!

[EagleFan]

Originally Posted by Solecismic

What about Romo? The guy has never had anything but solidly above-average seasons. He'll be in this top ten next year, as he's now over 100 starts. But 64-46 isn't a great record. He was undrafted. I think of him as Kurt Warner without quite the extreme high of his first three years in the NFL or the ring.

The 1-3 in the playoffs must kill perceptions - especially since his one bad playoff game was the blowout against Minnesota right after his only playoff win. Dallas fans are used to post-season success, and Romo doesn't have any.

Essentially 1-6 in playoff games (0-3 in week 17 winner take all games and 1-3 in official playoff games).

[SteveMax58]

Originally Posted by Solecismic

What about Romo? The guy has never had anything but solidly above-average seasons. He'll be in this top ten next year, as he's now over 100 starts. But 64-46 isn't a great record. He was undrafted. I think of him as Kurt Warner without quite the extreme high of his first three years in the NFL or the ring.

The 1-3 in the playoffs must kill perceptions - especially since his one bad playoff game was the blowout against Minnesota right after his only playoff win. Dallas fans are used to post-season success, and Romo doesn't have any.

Romo is a solid QB on a poorly managed team imho.

He isn't Drew Brees, but to me, the playcalling in Dallas basically asks him to do his best Brees impression. Sometimes its really, really, good. Sometimes not so good. But very rarely is Romo really awful. And he's pretty darn accurate with the ball as well.

I certainly enjoy when the Cowboys lose, and even moreso when its a Romo INT inside of the last 2-3 minutes, but he's a top 1/3 QB to me. I'd put him higher than Flacco no problem.

[TroyF]

Originally Posted by Solecismic

What about Romo? The guy has never had anything but solidly above-average seasons. He'll be in this top ten next year, as he's now over 100 starts. But 64-46 isn't a great record. He was undrafted. I think of him as Kurt Warner without quite the extreme high of his first three years in the NFL or the ring.

The 1-3 in the playoffs must kill perceptions - especially since his one bad playoff game was the blowout against Minnesota right after his only playoff win. Dallas fans are used to post-season success, and Romo doesn't have any.

Romo crushes Eli in essentially ever statistical metric. Completion %, yards per attempt, TD rate, INT Rate, etc. He's 6 fourth quarter comebacks behind Eli in 42 less career starts.


They met head to head in the playoffs in 2007, with Romo's only INT happening on a 4th and 11 with 16 seconds left in the game. Romo's team actually outgained Eli's by a large chunk. But Eli led the game winning drive, Romo didn't and the rest is history.

He gets so much crap for every loss and they act as though those losses take away all the wins. For example, last year the Cowboys go 8-8. They are outscored by 24 points. Of the 8 Cowboy wins, Romo has 5 game winning drives. This, of course, makes it to where the loss at the Redskins in the final week becomes his fault. If he'd just sucked more earlier in the year, the Cowboys wouldn't have been good enough to have him destroy their season with a bad INT.

For my money, I'll take Romo over Eli right now despite the lack of a Super Bowl title. He's a better QB. All of the people saying he sucks should wait until Dallas loses him for awhile.

[kingfc22]

Shoulder to the chest is a flag now too eh. Fucking bullshit call.

[Thomkal]

Go Falcons! We all want a Arizona/SF "win and you're in" game next week right? I know I do

[EagleFan]

Is this the final game at the mistake by the bay?

[bulletsponge]

wtf is that on Bermans head?

[Grover]

Originally Posted by EagleFan

Is this the final game at the mistake by the bay?

Indeed.

[Wolfpack]

Originally Posted by Thomkal

Go Falcons! We all want a Arizona/SF "win and you're in" game next week right? I know I do

Eh, I'd rather see the Niners win so that Carolina's longshot of getting home field has a chance of happening.

[Thomkal]

Originally Posted by Wolfpack

Eh, I'd rather see the Niners win so that Carolina's longshot of getting home field has a chance of happening.

<----puts Wolfpack on ignore

[NobodyHere]

Is Jim Schwartz fired yet?

[ColtCrazy]

I would feel a bit bad for Romo if Orton somehow beats the Eagles and then wins a playoff game at home. I don't think that's going to happen since the Cowboys still have to play D, but still.

[TroyF]

ummmmm, ouch.

[TroyF]

ummmmmmm, wow.

[RedKingGold]

What a way to close out Candlestick!

[ColtCrazy]

Woot!!! I won my championship. Kaepernick came though and more than offset Crabtree and Davis got blanked. First time I've won any league in 20 years!!!!

[Carman Bulldog]

For all the blame Romo gets when the Cowboys lose, his touchdown to interception ratio in their 7 losses this year is 17:3.

[Vince, Pt. II]

What a crazy end. What the hell were the Falcons doing passing the ball there? And what the hell was Navorro Bowman doing on the field on an onside kick?

Phew. Going to need to play much better than that next week in Arizona.

[NobodyHere]

Kelly Hall is Matthew Stafford's gf.

[DaddyTorgo]

Haha

[SteveMax58]

Originally Posted by NobodyHere

Kelly Hall is Matthew Stafford's gf.

Can't say I blame the Detroit fans that paid $$$ to see them drop yet another game they needed against a Giants team with nothing on the line.

Its crazy to think that at 6-3, sitting in 1st place with the only healthy starting QB in their division that they would drop 5 of 6. They did well against their division but they are highly erratic outside of it. Remind me of the Giants in that they seem to find new ways to play below (already lowered) expectations.

I think they needed a Schwartz type of coach to come in & change the attitude there but thats not a free pass on doing everything else needed to win. And at the end of the day, Detroit has a fairly talented team that should be winning 10+ games (especially with the only healthy QB in the division). It just seems like Schwartz & the staff there are not preparing well enough. Either thats because they aren't putting in the time (doubtful) or they really aren't smart enough to figure out strategies for the rest of the NFL (outside their division) in a given work week. They are playing close, but they are coming up short for a reason.

[Thomkal]

::::sighs at Atlanta:::

Go Tampa then? they nearly beat the Saints way back in Week 2. But that was at home, be very difficult to beat them in the Super Dome.

[Danny]

Well stafford does have good taste in women at least

[hoopsguy]

Originally Posted by EagleFan

Essentially 1-6 in playoff games (0-3 in week 17 winner take all games and 1-3 in official playoff games).

That number would mean more to me if I knew the spreads on those games. Hard to hold it against him losing games on the road where the team is a 7+ point dog, but those +/- 3 point lines or losing home games would weigh more heavily in terms of evaluation.

Along with the actual stats in those games. Performances like the ones against Denver earlier in this year are hard to put on the QB.

I'm guessing the numbers will actually come back pretty morbid, based on my recollections of some of those games. But if people want to crush Romo for being "unclutch" I think there is a better body of work to find than the overly simplistic "1-6 in sample set I choose as relevant" argument.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Along with the actual stats in those games. Performances like the ones against Denver earlier in this year are hard to put on the QB.

2006 playoffs @SEA: 17/29 for 189 & 1TD/0 INT, lost 21-20
2007 playoffs vs NYG: 18/36 for 201 & 1TD/1 INT, lost 21-17
2008 wk 17 @ PHL: 21/39 for 183 & 0TD/1 INT, lost 44-6
2009 playoffs vs PHL: 23/35 for 244 & 2 TD/0 INT, won 34-14
2009 playoffs @ MIN: 22/35 for 198 & 0 TD/1 INT, lost 34-3 (6 sacks)
2011 wk 17 @NYG: 29/37 for 289 & 2 TD/1 INT, lost 31-14 (6 sacks)
2012 wk 17 @WAS: 20/37 for 218 & 2 TD/3 INT, lost 28-18

That's most of it, one thing I couldn't see from the box score archive I used was how many fumbles he had (himself, not the team)

[gstelmack]

Lions send fans playoff tickets after missing postseason - NFL - SI.com

[HomerSimpson98]

Originally Posted by SteveMax58

Romo is a solid QB on a poorly managed team imho.

He isn't Drew Brees, but to me, the playcalling in Dallas basically asks him to do his best Brees impression. Sometimes its really, really, good. Sometimes not so good. But very rarely is Romo really awful. And he's pretty darn accurate with the ball as well.

This.
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Having said that, I cant think of another QB in the league that has more "WTF was that pass?! WHY TONY WHY?!" moments at the end of games than Romo.

[weegeebored]

Originally Posted by Carman Bulldog

For all the blame Romo gets when the Cowboys lose, his touchdown to interception ratio in their 7 losses this year is 17:3.

I'm not a fan of Ken "Hawk" Harrelson, but he has a saying that I think is spot on. When talking about hitters' statistics he says, "Don't tell me what you hit, tell me WHEN you hit it." This probably applies to Romo. Some guys are afraid of the spotlight and the pressure. Need I mention the botched FG hold?

[Buccaneer]

I would think Philip Rivers definitely falls into the wtf pass in crucial situations. I think one of the key measures of a great qb is how often you can make those passes.

[bulletsponge]

Originally Posted by weegeebored

I'm not a fan of Ken "Hawk" Harrelson, but he has a saying that I think is spot on. When talking about hitters' statistics he says, "Don't tell me what you hit, tell me WHEN you hit it." This probably applies to Romo. Some guys are afraid of the spotlight and the pressure. Need I mention the botched FG hold?

long time Cowboy fans remember danny white. Romo is Danny white. well not exactly, danny white could actually get to the playoffs

[cartman]

Originally Posted by bulletsponge

long time Cowboy fans remember danny white. Romo is Danny white. well not exactly, danny white could actually get to the playoffs

Plus Danny White had Tom Landry. Romo has had Wade Phillips and Jason Garrett.

[jbergey22]

I think the more I watch the Cowboys the more I believe Romo is the only reason they are closer to 9-7 each year rather than 5-11. Maybe Romo has had some classic "choke" moments but for the most part he is the reason they are even in position to "choke." When you are a QB and have to carry the coaching staff it becomes a real problem.

I have never really thought Romo was scared of the big moment. I think in that aspect he is like Brett Favre in that he tries to do too much in the clutch moment. Maybe they are the same thing.

[BillJasper]

Originally Posted by jbergey22

I think the more I watch the Cowboys the more I believe Romo is the only reason they are closer to 9-7 each year rather than 5-11. Maybe Romo has had some classic "choke" moments but for the most part he is the reason they are even in position to "choke." When you are a QB and have to carry the coaching staff it becomes a real problem.

This is pretty much where I'm at.

[Blackadar]

I read someplace recently that Romo's "close and late" turnover ratio and QB rating were ungodly poor as compared to other QBs with similar statistics. I can't remember where I saw it. But I know Romo has more 4th quarter turnovers in close and late situations than any other QB. His QB rating drops like a rock in those same circumstances.

I agree with BillJasper and jbergey that Romo has carried the offense many times and can be a great QB. But something happens to him and the team late in the games and there have been too many just outright horrible plays from him in those situations to NOT deserve his reputation as a choker.

[cartman]

Yet, he is also only behind Peyton Manning in 4th quarter comebacks since he became a starter.

[Solecismic]

I did a pretty thorough study of late-4Q game-winning drives and one quarterback is clearly the best of all-time in the clutch... Tim Couch. Eleven of his 21 career wins came from those winning drives.

It's pretty much random scatter with low sample sizes. What's clear when the sample gets larger is that teams with 7-8-9 wins have more opportunities for winning 4Q drives. It all evens out because the best quarterbacks simply win more games, even though a lower percentage of those 11-12-win season games result in winning 4Q drives.

Out of 240 games this season, 61 have featured a winning drive late in the game. The distribution is remarkably even. If quarterbacks have magic fourth-quarter ability (which implies they don't do their best the rest of the game), I've never seen it. And I look at this stuff a lot.

I think this argument is even more important in baseball. I would not want a player on my team who only pays attention when the score is close and there's a runner on second base. Studies that compare these "clutch" ratings from season to season invariably come up with nothing more than random noise.

For grins, this year's list:

4: Brady, Flacco, Palmer
3: Romo, Tannehill, Cutler, G. Smith, Newton, Roethlisberger
2: Luck, Kaepernick, Brees, Locker, Schaub, Rivers, Griffin, Wilson
1: A. Smith, Dalton, Henne, Manuel, E. Manning, P. Manning, J. McCown, Flynn, Cassel, Ryan, Stafford, Lewis, Bradford, Fitzpatrick, Hoyer

Honestly, I think this clutch stuff is completely made up by announcers and so-called analysts who want to make themselves feel relevant.

It's too bad that sometimes really good quarterbacks like Romo have to deal with a reputation that's completely undeserved. The Cowboys have been 8-8/9-7 more frequently than not during his career - which means he's been put in clutch situations more than most. Failures are far more visible than successes at that level.

[NobodyHere]

And here I was thinking Tim Tebow was the greatest clutch QB ever, since all of his wins in 2011 seem to come in the 4th Qtr.

[BillJasper]

I don't think Romo will ever be great until Jerry Jones gets out of the way and he can have a normal relationship with whoever the head coach is.

[weegeebored]

These kinds of discussions are always interesting but the arguments for/against will always be flawed. What I mean is that we're giving opinions based on perceptions. Those perceptions may or may not be based on actual facts. The problem is the measurement of QB "greatness" or "4th Q comeback ability". You can't measure what is not defined. As an example, let's take intelligence. The concept exists -- sure -- but how do we define it? Is it by performance on an IQ test? Creative ability? Problem-solving? Football savvy? If the definition can't be agreed upon then there's no way to measure it which means that perception becomes reality. Is Peyton smarter than Romo who is smarter than Cutler? I don't know. What I do know is that Manning's team is in a much better position to be successful than the other QBs' teams. The fact that his team is scoring an ungodly amount of points makes the 4th quarter comeback measurement irrelevant. So because he scores "low" on that measure does that make him a worse QB than another who has been in a different situation in games that allowed for comebacks?

One simple way to think about this is, if you were running a team would you want Romo to be your quarterback if you had designs on winning a Super Bowl? I would say no because, imo, he isn't going to win big games. The best predictor of future behavior is past behavior, and his record kind of speaks for itself. I think he's a good qb, but not a great one.

[Solecismic]

Please don't take offense, but I'd take analysis over imos. Peyton Manning has a mediocre playoff record (9-11 - 32/21 TD/Int). Yet I'd roll my eyes if someone told me he was outside of the top five quarterbacks in NFL history because of the numbers he has accumulated in the regular season.

Throwing out other playoff records... Tom Brady (17-7 - 42/22 TD/Int). Ben Roethlisberger (10-4 - 20/17). Romo (1-3 - 4/2). John Elway (14-7 - 27/21). Dan Fouts (3-4 - 12/16). Dan Marino (8-10 - 32/24). Joe Montana (16-7 - 45/21). Brett Favre (13-11 - 44/30). Troy Aikman (11-4 - 23/17).

There's a definite statistical pattern to competitive games amongst good teams. Just a couple of games makes a reputation. Romo can't be considered among the greats because he hasn't had enough of these big games, but what he has accumulated as he enters the latter stages of his career indicates he's far better than average.

[jbergey22]

Just curious. Do people feel Brett Favre is "clutch" or "unclutch"? I will save my opinion.

[MartinD]

I read a thread on another forum a few months back that's relevant to this discussion - was about the concept of a 'trap' QB, i.e. a quarterback who is good enough to make a team competitive (so the team never picks early enough in the first round of the draft to be able to acquire the top-end prospects), but not good enough to lead a team to a championship.

It probably doesn't come as a surprise that Tony Romo was mentioned quite a bit in that thread...

[jbergey22]

Originally Posted by MartinD

I read a thread on another forum a few months back that's relevant to this discussion - was about the concept of a 'trap' QB, i.e. a quarterback who is good enough to make a team competitive (so the team never picks early enough in the first round of the draft to be able to acquire the top-end prospects), but not good enough to lead a team to a championship.

It probably doesn't come as a surprise that Tony Romo was mentioned quite a bit in that thread...

I certainly agree with this concept in the NBA with certain "trap" stars. The NFL has a perfectly capable free agent system and enough wiggle room in the draft that I dont think this should be blamed on the potential of a "trap" QB and more on the upper management for not getting in the right pieces to the puzzle.

I would agree though that Romo would fit into this category.

In reality its on Jerry Jones for not having the patience to rebuild the right way and too big of an ego to let someone come in and do his job right.

[lungs]

From my own perspective as a Cowboy fan, I tend to attribute the Cowboys mediocrity to having some elite players at several positions surrounded by a lot of crap. Then when injuries hit and you are suiting up the janitor, things look even worse but the end result tends to be mediocrity overall with flashes of greatness.

[larrymcg421]

There are several QB's worse than Romo that have won a Superbowl.

[Danny]

Originally Posted by MartinD

I read a thread on another forum a few months back that's relevant to this discussion - was about the concept of a 'trap' QB, i.e. a quarterback who is good enough to make a team competitive (so the team never picks early enough in the first round of the draft to be able to acquire the top-end prospects), but not good enough to lead a team to a championship.

It probably doesn't come as a surprise that Tony Romo was mentioned quite a bit in that thread...

Bad / awful theory of the nfl.

[Buccaneer]

[fanboy]I think this is a good shot of one of the reasons I love Tom Brady and think he is one of the top 3 all-time. The pocket is collapsing, he got guys pretty much on him and in a second, he'll likely be on the ground. But here he is still looking at his target (perhaps his third checkdown), not folding, not running backwards, not with a slow release, not chucking it up or out and perhaps able to throw it on the numbers or where it needs to be thrown.

[Radii]

Dallas Cowboys reach deal with Jon Kitna - ESPN Dallas