2014-2015 MLB Hot Stove thread

[AENeuman]

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

Ugh.

Don't need Sandoval & Hanley for $200m.

Shades of AGon & Carl Crawford.

Need PITCHING. Like...4 SPs. Or at least 3.

First, Im not trolling here, legit question:

This morning on the local talk radio there was the claim that Boston is a very hard place for minorities, save a token few superstars. I'm not sure how/why the AGon tenure went down, but he clearly can put up superstar stats and not at all a bust in la. Crawford just seems like an injury bust.

So, are you/Boston fandom worried that these signings will be disappointing because of the lack of history of minorities thriving in Boston?

[cartman]

Here's the players on this year's HoF ballot.

First timers:
Rich Aurillia
Aaron Boone
Tony Clark
Carlos Delgado
Jermaine Dye
Darin Erstad
Cliff Floyd
Nomar Garciaparra
Brian Giles
Tom Gordon
Eddie Guardado
Randy Johnson
Pedro Martinez
Troy Percival
Jason Schmidt
Gary Sheffield
John Smoltz

Last year's holdovers:
Craig Biggio, 74.8 percent
Mike Piazza, 62.2
Jeff Bagwell, 54.3
Tim Raines, 46.1
Roger Clemens, 35.4
Barry Bonds, 34.7
Lee Smith, 29.9
Curt Schilling, 29.2
Edgar Martinez, 25.2
Alan Trammell, 20.8
Mike Mussina, 20.3
Jeff Kent, 15.2
Fred McGriff, 11.7
Mark McGwire, 11
Larry Walker, 10.2
Don Mattingly, 8.2
Sammy Sosa, 7.2

[claphamsa]

It was my understanding that AGon was the price of dumping the 2 bad contracts, not a bust.

[Logan]

Originally Posted by claphamsa

Kyle Seager is worth 100M?

I won't claim to be as big of a baseball fan as I used to, but I legitimately had no clue who this guy was. My first thought when I heard the name was the guy who played basketball for Duke a couple years ago.

[Logan]

I thought of the Mets when hearing Boegarts might be available but my quick research indicates it would cost Wheeler or deGrom. No thanks.

[DaddyTorgo]

Originally Posted by AENeuman

First, Im not trolling here, legit question:

This morning on the local talk radio there was the claim that Boston is a very hard place for minorities, save a token few superstars. I'm not sure how/why the AGon tenure went down, but he clearly can put up superstar stats and not at all a bust in la. Crawford just seems like an injury bust.

So, are you/Boston fandom worried that these signings will be disappointing because of the lack of history of minorities thriving in Boston?

I wasn't trying to claim AGon was a bust - just that they heralded him and signed him to a big money deal and then shipped him out of town when they decided to change direction (whether it was the price of dumping the other contracts or not). The point was more like "don't get overawed by big splashy big money moves" kinda.

I wouldn't say I'm worried about it because of the lack of history of minorities thriving - I think when they're athletes they're in a totally different category than your average person obviously, and I think a lot of this is over-hyped at this point anyways.

Historically-speaking maybe, but I mean we're removed from that period time-wise at this point I'd say.

[molson]

I wouldn't say the Red Sox dumped Adrian Gonzalez, or that he was in any way a bust, he was the good player the the Red Sox had to give up in order for LA to take all those bad contracts.

[cartman]

Sound like the Rangers and Braves are working on a deal to send Justin Upton to Arlington.

[stevew]

They should just BoGo the Uptons together.

[miked]

Hopefully the deal is the Rangers take both. I can't imagine how putrid this offense will be without Heyward and the good Upton. Seems like they are going to mail in this year and make some big splashes for the new stadium in 2016.

[Grover]

Originally Posted by miked

So what happens with Bogaerts and Middlebrooks? All my Sox fans were lecturing me 2 years ago that these guys were the future of the Sox and the reason why they let a bunch of veterans walk.

Middlebrooks is garbage.

[Scarecrow]

Originally Posted by claphamsa

Kyle Seager is worth 100M?

Everytime I see a contract like this, I wonder how much longer until Sal Perez holds out. Dayton Moore take alot of crap at times, but what he locked Salvi up for in 2013 is downright genius...

2013 - $1M
2014 - $1.5M
2015 - $1.75M
2016 - $2M
2017 - $3.75M (team option)
2018 - $5M (team option)
2019 - $6M (team option)

for a grand total of 7 years/$21M!!!

[sterlingice]

Playing his number of games per year at catcher, he'll be in a wheelchair by 2020

SI

[Easy Mac]

Originally Posted by cartman

Sound like the Rangers and Braves are working on a deal to send Justin Upton to Arlington.

Maybe they can get Elvis Andrus back. Maybe three team it to get Texiera back.

[BishopMVP]

Originally Posted by miked

So what happens with Bogaerts and Middlebrooks? All my Sox fans were lecturing me 2 years ago that these guys were the future of the Sox and the reason why they let a bunch of veterans walk.

I don't think Bogaerts is going anywhere. Xander had a great first couple months, a horrific 2-3 months, then adjusted and put up an .800+ OPS in September. Hanley will play LF, possibly take over at DH when Ortiz retires, and Bogaerts will stay at SS. OF's need to go - Cespedes for sure, maybe Betts... I don't want to see him go, but this increases the chance he's the center piece of a trade for a pitcher.

Middlebrooks is gone. He's cheap, has power, and plays above-average D, so someone should take a flier on him and try to fix his contact issues, but it won't be here.

Hopefully we sign Lester too so we only need to trade for one pitcher, and can use Cespedes+prospects, and hold on to Mookie.

[DaddyTorgo]

Originally Posted by BishopMVP

I don't think Bogaerts is going anywhere. Xander had a great first couple months, a horrific 2-3 months, then adjusted and put up an .800+ OPS in September. Hanley will play LF, possibly take over at DH when Ortiz retires, and Bogaerts will stay at SS. OF's need to go - Cespedes for sure, maybe Betts... I don't want to see him go, but this increases the chance he's the center piece of a trade for a pitcher.

Middlebrooks is gone. He's cheap, has power, and plays above-average D, so someone should take a flier on him and try to fix his contact issues, but it won't be here.

Hopefully we sign Lester too so we only need to trade for one pitcher, and can use Cespedes+prospects, and hold on to Mookie.

Even if we sign Lester don't we need 2 or preferably 3 more SPs? And at least one more #1/#2 caliber guy.

[BishopMVP]

Originally Posted by AENeuman

First, Im not trolling here, legit question:

This morning on the local talk radio there was the claim that Boston is a very hard place for minorities, save a token few superstars. I'm not sure how/why the AGon tenure went down, but he clearly can put up superstar stats and not at all a bust in la. Crawford just seems like an injury bust.

So, are you/Boston fandom worried that these signings will be disappointing because of the lack of history of minorities thriving in Boston?

This isn't the 1970's anymore... The most popular Red Sox of the past 20 years are Ortiz, Pedro and Manny/Nomar for most of their time. Expand it to other sports and Paul Pierce, Kevin Garnett, Vince Wilfork, etc have all been embraced wholeheartedly.

There is definitely heightened media pressure at times which affects some players (Crawford for one), but Sandoval's postseason success indicates that he doesn't let pressure get in his head too much. I still don't love the deal because Sandoval needs to play 3B to be worth it (while Hanley's bat, when healthy, is good enough to carry him anywhere), but if either deal doesn't work out it won't be because of skin color.

[DaddyTorgo]

Originally Posted by BishopMVP

This isn't the 1970's anymore... The most popular Red Sox of the past 20 years are Ortiz, Pedro and Manny/Nomar for most of their time. Expand it to other sports and Paul Pierce, Kevin Garnett, Vince Wilfork, etc have all been embraced wholeheartedly.

There is definitely heightened media pressure at times which affects some players (Crawford for one), but Sandoval's postseason success indicates that he doesn't let pressure get in his head too much. I still don't love the deal because Sandoval needs to play 3B to be worth it (while Hanley's bat, when healthy, is good enough to carry him anywhere), but if either deal doesn't work out it won't be because of skin color.

I'm not the baseball guy, but my reaction was more because as Bishop said, that seems like an overpay for a guy who's heavy and will have to transition to DH (where he's not worth that kind of $$ yet). Especially given that they need so much pitching.

[BishopMVP]

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

Even if we sign Lester don't we need 2 or preferably 3 more SPs? And at least one more #1/#2 caliber guy.

1 - Lester
2 - ?
3 - Buchholz (really, could be a 1, could pitch 50 innings)
4 - Kelly
5 - De La Rosa

Even if you're convinced like me that Workman and Ranaudo are bullpen arms, you've still got Webster, Barnes, Owens and Brian Johnson by mid season, Steven Wright if you believe in him (I do), as possible injury replacements. Now, some of those guys (or Eduardo Rodriguez) will be included in whatever deals we make to get that #2, but that's more than enough pitching depth.

[DaddyTorgo]

Originally Posted by BishopMVP

1 - Lester
2 - ?
3 - Buchholz (really, could be a 1, could pitch 50 innings)
4 - Kelly
5 - De La Rosa

Even if you're convinced like me that Workman and Ranaudo are bullpen arms, you've still got Webster, Barnes, Owens and Brian Johnson by mid season, Steven Wright if you believe in him (I do), as possible injury replacements. Now, some of those guys (or Eduardo Rodriguez) will be included in whatever deals we make to get that #2, but that's more than enough pitching depth.

I'd rather see Bucholz as the #4 given his injury/inconsistency issues. Certainly more than I'd rather see Sandoval get paid $100m. And "Oh here's all these rookies and young guys" doesn't inspire in me a lot of confidence. Sure...one or two could be future #1s, or they could all flame out and be useless. As the resident pessimist want to guess which way I'm leaning?

[ISiddiqui]

Originally Posted by claphamsa

Kyle Seager is worth 100M?

Fangraphs apparently believes so .

Mariners Pay Kyle Seager Like The Player He Is | FanGraphs Baseball

They make a compelling case that over the last three years Seager and Sandoval are very comparable players.

[BishopMVP]

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

I'd rather see Bucholz as the #4 given his injury/inconsistency issues. Certainly more than I'd rather see Sandoval get paid $100m. And "Oh here's all these rookies and young guys" doesn't inspire in me a lot of confidence. Sure...one or two could be future #1s, or they could all flame out and be useless. As the resident pessimist want to guess which way I'm leaning?

I'd like to have Lester, Kershaw, Bumgarner and Felix Hernandez with Buchholz as the 5, but at a certain point even the Red Sox have a budget and limited trade assets. At a certain point, you need some gambles to go your way, and gambling on the pitcher who had the lowest ERA of any pitcher with >100 IP in 2013, and a bunch of young pitchers for one rotation spot (and a couple in the bullpen) seems like a solid gamble. The key there being that there are multiple candidates, so its not like we're relying on only 1 pitching prospect.

[molson]

I think we do have to remember that every year during free agency, we all wonder what teams are thinking when they give guys so much money. How many open market free agency deals are seen generally by the media or this board as being bargains? If we think most of the deals are too high, than we're probably underestimating these guys' value, and how rich these teams are.

[Vince, Pt. II]

I think everyone is making a bit much out of Pablo's potential inability to play 3B. Sure, he's a big dude - but he played gold glove caliber defense this season and he's only 28.

[ISiddiqui]

Hmmm... I haven't heard much against Sandoval playing 3B myself. More that Hanley shouldn't be playing SS.

[Galaril]

Originally Posted by BishopMVP

1 - Lester
2 - ?
3 - Buchholz (really, could be a 1, could pitch 50 innings)
4 - Kelly
5 - De La Rosa

Even if you're convinced like me that Workman and Ranaudo are bullpen arms, you've still got Webster, Barnes, Owens and Brian Johnson by mid season, Steven Wright if you believe in him (I do), as possible injury replacements. Now, some of those guys (or Eduardo Rodriguez) will be included in whatever deals we make to get that #2, but that's more than enough pitching depth.

I guess it will depend who they can get in a trade for that #2 spot and if Lester and Buchholz pitch well but the #4 and #5 spots scare the shit out of me and have no confidence in those guys or any others mentioned in the bottom .

[DaddyTorgo]

Originally Posted by Galaril

I guess it will depend who they can get in a trade for that #2 spot and if Lester and Buchholz pitch well but the #4 and #5 spots scare the shit out of me and have no confidence in those guys or any others mentioned in the bottom .

Indeed.

[DaddyTorgo]

Originally Posted by BishopMVP

1 - Lester
2 - ?
3 - Buchholz (really, could be a 1, could pitch 50 innings)
4 - Kelly
5 - De La Rosa

Even if you're convinced like me that Workman and Ranaudo are bullpen arms, you've still got Webster, Barnes, Owens and Brian Johnson by mid season, Steven Wright if you believe in him (I do), as possible injury replacements. Now, some of those guys (or Eduardo Rodriguez) will be included in whatever deals we make to get that #2, but that's more than enough pitching depth.

What I see when I look at your post. And scratch your head to try to figure out when the last time a "flier" that the Red Sox took in the SP department paid off with a +WAR player (I honestly have no idea myself. I could probably look but I'm still at work).

Oh here - this article gives insight (thanks Google): Outlook isn’t great for Red Sox pitching rotation prospects - Sports - The Boston Globe

1 - Lester
2 - ?
3 - The corpse of Buchholz (who really could be generic flier #0 for all the consistency he's shown)
4 - Generic flier #1
5 - Generic flier #2

Even if you're convinced like me that Generic flier #3 and Generic flier #4 are bullpen arms, you've still got Generic flier #5, Generic flier #6, Generic flier #7 and Generic flier #8 by mid season, Generic flier #9 if you believe in him (I do), as possible injury replacements. Now, some of those guys (or Generic flier #10) will be included in whatever deals we make to get that #2, but that's more than enough pitching depth.

[JPhillips]

I think the Reds will make the worst decision and largely stand pat, but with all their upcoming FA pitchers and the Sox prospects, there has to be a deal there.

[MrBug708]

Originally Posted by claphamsa

It was my understanding that AGon was the price of dumping the 2 bad contracts, not a bust.

Dodgers have always wanted AGon since his SD days, considering he is Mexican and had power at a position they'd be devoid of it at since Eric Karros. So they had to take CC and Beckett

[Chief Rum]

Originally Posted by MrBug708

Dodgers have always wanted AGon since his SD days, considering he is Mexican and had power at a position they'd be devoid of it at since Eric Karros. So they had to take CC and Beckett

Go with Crawford rather than "CC". Saying CC in a baseball conversation only adds confusion to your post.

[molson]

TIL - Carl Crawford had a higher OPS+ in 2014 than Pablo Sandoval did.

[Vince, Pt. II]

Pablo to the Red Sox officially official. Bobby Evans confirmed it on the radio just now.

[kingfc22]

Originally Posted by molson

TIL - Carl Crawford had a higher OPS+ in 2014 than Pablo Sandoval did.

Pablo in October >>> Pablo in the regular season.

[DaddyTorgo]

Originally Posted by kingfc22

Pablo in October >>> Pablo in the regular season.

They have to actually...make it to October first.

[kingfc22]

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

They have to actually...make it to October first.

Yea, was more commenting on molson's post. Pablo's OPS has dropped significantly since 2011, but what everyone remembers right now is his fantastic post season. I don't follow the Red Sox, but it sounds like 3B has been a black hole for awhile so he should be a definite upgrade with the bat and his glove was amazing this season. If he can keep the weight off he will be a solid player, but not worth $20M a year.

Of course that salary number is hard to judge in today's MLB as some team's are playing with monopoly money.

Now if the Giants can find a way to use the money saved plus what they already planned on spending to sign a power hitting LF (Yasmani Tomas?), a solid starting pitcher and a serviceable 3B I'll be happy.

[BishopMVP]

Originally Posted by DaddyTorgo

What I see when I look at your post. And scratch your head to try to figure out when the last time a "flier" that the Red Sox took in the SP department paid off with a +WAR player (I honestly have no idea myself. I could probably look but I'm still at work).

Oh here - this article gives insight (thanks Google): Outlook isn’t great for Red Sox pitching rotation prospects - Sports - The Boston Globe

1 - Lester
2 - ?
3 - The corpse of Buchholz (who really could be generic flier #0 for all the consistency he's shown)
4 - Generic flier #1
5 - Generic flier #2

Even if you're convinced like me that Generic flier #3 and Generic flier #4 are bullpen arms, you've still got Generic flier #5, Generic flier #6, Generic flier #7 and Generic flier #8 by mid season, Generic flier #9 if you believe in him (I do), as possible injury replacements. Now, some of those guys (or Generic flier #10) will be included in whatever deals we make to get that #2, but that's more than enough pitching depth.

Joe Kelly's the definition of generic, but he's not really a flier - he has 327 major league innings with a 111 ERA+... Even if you discount that and think he's closer to the 90-95 ERA+ pitcher he was this past year that's perfectly cromulent for a 4/5. And I disagree with the prospects being generic - theres a huge split in the scouting community on Owens, and Rodriguez might fall a little after struggling in the first half post-injury (even though he was lights out once the Sox acquired him), but both are top 50 prospects and the best pitching prospects the Sox have had since Lester/Buchholz(/Papelbon/Sanchez). Then Johnson/Barnes are both in the back half of the top 100. RDLR isn't considered a prospect, but he more or less is on that same level of experience and potential. And Buchholz is impossible to predict, but he didn't just pitch well in 2013, he was arguably the best pitcher in baseball until he got hurt.

Plus, the bar isn't exactly high - the Sox had 119 starts last year from the combination of Buchholz (having his worst season), RDLR, Kelly, Doubront, Workman, Peavy, Webster and Ranaudo, and we only allowed 40 more earned runs than the 2013 WS winning team. And, of course, the veteran fliers haven't exactly torn it up either (Dempster, Peavy, Aaron Cook, Brad Penny, etc), and taking a chance on young guys is the only way you'll end up with a young ace/#2 - teams aren't looking to trade those guys until they're approaching free agency or being paid market value and approaching the age of 30.

[molson]

Originally Posted by kingfc22

Pablo in October >>> Pablo in the regular season.

In seems non-Red Soxy to pay for October heroics. It's like Lou Gorman is back.

[BishopMVP]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

I think the Reds will make the worst decision and largely stand pat, but with all their upcoming FA pitchers and the Sox prospects, there has to be a deal there.

Plus Cespedes would fit in well at GAP. I don't trust Latos with the injury concerns, but I'm thinking something based around Cespedes + a pitching prospect (and maybe the competitive balance pick we got from Oakland since Cespedes can't be offered a QO) for Mike Leake. I don't even want to get into the ridiculous deals people are throwing around that involve Bogaerts and Betts for a 1-year rental, or where the Red Sox trade Cespedes and spare parts for Sale or Strasbourg or even Hamels.

Kenta Maeda's also a possibility depending on the market for him, Ian Kennedy from San Diego and obviously Hamels because who knows, it's Ruben Amaro, maybe he will trade Hamels for Cespedes and Allen Craig.

[JPhillips]

I'm not high on Cespedes. He may put up better numbers in GABP, but he's just a slightly above average hitter.

[Easy Mac]

I'm going to be honest, I've never heard the name Kyle Weaver before.

[BishopMVP]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

I'm not high on Cespedes. He may put up better numbers in GABP, but he's just a slightly above average hitter.

I agree, which is why I think people thinking he'll be the centerpiece for a guy like Cueto or Hamels are insane, but Leake seems right in that range (slightly above average pitcher, high IP, no real time missed recently). Cecchini doesnt fit for the Reds, but Devon Marrero's another near MLB ready guy that could fit in to the Reds roster.

[Shkspr]

Originally Posted by Easy Mac

I'm going to be honest, I've never heard the name Kyle Weaver before.

He was a guard in the NBA for a couple years, before playing in Israel. Not really a big name.

Now, Kyle Seager, on the other hand...it's pretty clear that the last two years have set a new level of production for Seager, but it's insane to realize that there's so much money out there that $14 million a season isn't an overpay for .270/.340/.450 with good D.

[JPhillips]

Originally Posted by BishopMVP

I agree, which is why I think people thinking he'll be the centerpiece for a guy like Cueto or Hamels are insane, but Leake seems right in that range (slightly above average pitcher, high IP, no real time missed recently). Cecchini doesnt fit for the Reds, but Devon Marrero's another near MLB ready guy that could fit in to the Reds roster.

Some money would also have to come with that deal. 10.5 is more than the Reds should pay for that kind of production.

[ISiddiqui]

Originally Posted by Shkspr

Now, Kyle Seager, on the other hand...it's pretty clear that the last two years have set a new level of production for Seager, but it's insane to realize that there's so much money out there that $14 million a season isn't an overpay for .270/.340/.450 with good D.

You have noticed what his home park is, right?

Seager's OPS+ last season was 127. That is higher than Sandoval in any of the last 3 seasons.

The good defense also made Seager a 5.8 WAR(BR) player last season - that was higher than Juan Uribe, for one.

[BishopMVP]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

Some money would also have to come with that deal. 10.5 is more than the Reds should pay for that kind of production.

Cespedes had 3.4 WAR last season and 8.5 over his 3 seasons... If anything $10.5 with no long-term commitment is an underpay for his production. Plus the Reds would get 6 cheap years of whatever prospect(s) we give up. Now, if we try sending Victorino or Craig I'll assume we need to pick up some of the money.

That same kid on Instagram is saying Lester has a 6-year, $130 million offer, as well as 4 and 5 year offers on the table, and the Red Sox pretty much expect him to sign by tomorrow or they'll move on to Scherzer/Hamels.

[Ramzavail]

Originally Posted by Logan

I thought of the Mets when hearing Boegarts might be available but my quick research indicates it would cost Wheeler or deGrom. No thanks.

I agree

[JPhillips]

Originally Posted by BishopMVP

Cespedes had 3.4 WAR last season and 8.5 over his 3 seasons... If anything $10.5 with no long-term commitment is an underpay for his production. Plus the Reds would get 6 cheap years of whatever prospect(s) we give up. Now, if we try sending Victorino or Craig I'll assume we need to pick up some of the money.

And he had a 1.6 the year before that.

Regardless, the Reds aren't adding payroll. That's in large part because too much was spent on shitty bench players and injured relievers, but it is what it is.

[BishopMVP]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

And he had a 1.6 the year before that.

Regardless, the Reds aren't adding payroll. That's in large part because too much was spent on shitty bench players and injured relievers, but it is what it is.

Fangraphs had him at 2.2, but even at 1.6, market value of a win is about $7m, so that puts him right at market value with no long-term risk. Either way, I assume Leake will get a raise in arbitration to right about $10-$11m... He was at $7.5m last year iirc, so its not adding anything to the Reds payroll.

If Bogaerts is going to the Mets it's for a Wheeler or Syndegaard... deGrom doesn't have that trade value IMO. But selling low on him would be a huge mistake, and I dont think the Red Sox have soured on him at all, so I don't see any team offering fair value. If you are eager for a SS, Deven Marrero is a Jose Iglesias-type who's near MLB ready and I could see being moved this winter.

[stevew]

I still think Juan Uribe is Jose Uribe every time I see him in a box score.