World Politics

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by cuervo72

Yep, there certainly are good reasons at times: In drought-stricken Arizona, fresh scrutiny of Saudi Arabia-owned farm’s water use | PBS NewsHour

Canada is restricting Chinese nationals from buying property. So is Australia (non-nationals). The US (and much of the west) is pretty wide-open which IMO is stupid. In general, I do believe non-citizens/PR should be able to buy land/residence, but I'd want some restrictions and the other country providing similar opportunities (won't ever be exactly the same).

Canada is banning some foreigners from buying property after home prices surged. Canada in 2023 is closing its doors to foreign investors who want to purchase homes. A new Canadian law took effect January 1 that essentially bans foreign buyers from buying residential properties as investments for two years.

Non-Australian residents are prohibited from buying existing houses, and the Foreign Investment Review Board says foreign investment should be restricted to new properties that “create additional jobs” and “increase Australia’s housing stock”.

But yeah, where DeSantis is concerned I do wonder about motives.

Pretty clear to me he believes it motivates his base. I am not convinced he is xenophoic, prejudice against Asians people as a whole, but do believe he is prejudice against Chinese nationals.

(Also yes to other countries doing this -- my dad is not actually allowed to own "his" house in Thailand, for instance.)

I've actually looked at buying land/residences in SEA. The US is wide-open compared to SEA countries.

Thailand is great BTW. Cost of living is so nice. Not as westernized as Singapore or HK, but probably the best SEA country for the $ if you want a lot of western conveniences. Philippines is just a notch below, and I've read that Vietnam is up and coming.

In researching China, their real estate websites say that non-nationals can "buy" property. But that is BS. There may be some exceptions but "buy" is essentially a long term lease.

[miami_fan]

Originally Posted by Edward64

I actually did look through the pdf earlier and I'll be the first to admit that, not being an attorney, there's too much legalese in there (e.g. more than in the "Don't Say Gay bill") and know there are nuances that I cannot discuss intelligently about. I didn't understand near all of it (e.g. WTF is "de minimus indirect interest").

However, to bring it into layman's terms, I looked at:

https://www.flsenate.gov/Session/Bil...ab=BillHistory (see View Bill Summary to the left)


You can see it talks about "foreign principals" and third bullet is pretty clear it is talking about non-citizens/PR.

In addition, I looked at an Axios article (which I believe is pretty reputable), which states below

Just a moment...


The article also references ACLU and Asian American Legal Defense Fund getting involved. There is no mention that they believe this proposal applies to US Citizens/PR.

So in summary - if your contention still is this applies to US citizens/PR of Chinese descent, I will avoid discussing this further as it's central to my POV that it does not. And I cannot see a way to convince you otherwise. If you are right, I agree this proposal is really bad and in all likelihood IMO, the courts will overturn it (e.g. courts are good to finetune vagaries in a bill, we are a lawsuit happy country).

However, if we can agree this does not apply to US citizens/PR, I'll be glad to continue the discussion.

The categories are numbered for a reason. If they wanted it to be clear that the exception in each category included US citizens and PR, they could simply have placed a sentence at the end of each categories stating so. They did so for #4.

[miami_fan]

Originally Posted by Edward64

Canada is restricting Chinese nationals from buying property. So is Australia (non-nationals). The US (and much of the west) is pretty wide-open which IMO is stupid. In general, I do believe non-citizens/PR should be able to buy land/residence, but I'd want some restrictions and the other country providing similar opportunities (won't ever be exactly the same).

Canada is restricting foreigners from buying residential homes.

Canada is banning some foreigners from buying property after home prices surged | CNN Business

A new Canadian law took effect January 1 that essentially bans foreign buyers from buying residential properties as investments for two years. The law was passed because of a spike in Canadian home prices since the start of the pandemic – and some politicians’ beliefs that foreign buyers were responsible by snapping up supply of homes as investments.

That does not mean that they don't suspect the Chinese are doing the majority of the purchasing.

Canada Bans Foreigners From Purchasing Most Real Estate

Although there are no statistical breakdowns on where these foreign buyers come from, Ogmundson says immigration trends indicate they are from Asian countries. He says the blame usually goes toward China.

"If it kind of breaks down the way, like, immigration breaks down in B.C., it's probably mostly Asian. So, China, Taiwan, Korea, a lot of Indian immigrants, a lot of immigrants from the Philippines," he said. "That's probably the major share of foreign investment. But we don't have very good data on it. So, it's really hard to say. Certainly, most of the blame goes towards Chinese investors. "

The same is true in Australia. If the law in Florida banned all foreigners from buying property, that would be more in line with what Canada and Australia. Both countries have also been clear that the restrictions have been put in place to provide affordable homes for its citizens. Whether I agree or not is a different debate. The new law in Florida is not that. The law here is according to the Governor and his supporters one based on national security and to guard against a threat of the Chinese government in general and the CCP in particular. If Canada banned Americans in general and Republicans specifically from purchasing property there, I would ask the same questions about that policy that I am asking about this one.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by miami_fan

The categories are numbered for a reason. If they wanted it to be clear that the exception in each category included US citizens and PR, they could simply have placed a sentence at the end of each categories stating so. They did so for #4.

I googled on "does FL bill 264 apply to US citizens". In the returned headlines, I got ...

"restrictions on persons or entities from certain foreign countries of concern"
"prohibit Chinese citizens from purchasing land in the state"
"restrict ownership of land and property by those from seven countries of concern"
"new state law prohibits Chinese citizens"
"ban select persons from foreign countries of concern from owning ..."
"does not allow any person who is from one of those seven countries"
"targets US adversarial countries"

I guess it's possible you are correct that the proposed bill is unclear in this specific topic and does really apply to US citizens/PR (whereas I believe it does not). That would mean the Bill's summary was wrong, and the media nor ACLU/Asian American Legal Defense teams have not picked up on this issue yet.

Per my earlier statement below ... as this point is central to my position and I've been unable to convince you otherwise, I'll avoid continuing this discussion until sometime in the future where (1) media does start reporting it applies to US citizens/PR, and/or (2) there is enough evidence to convince you it does not.

I believe July 1, 2023 is the target date it goes into effect. So hopefully, it'll be clear whose interpretation is correct. I'll make a note to revisit around then.

So in summary - if your contention still is this applies to US citizens/PR of Chinese descent, I will avoid discussing this further as it's central to my POV that it does not. And I cannot see a way to convince you otherwise. If you are right, I agree this proposal is really bad and in all likelihood IMO, the courts will overturn it (e.g. courts are good to finetune vagaries in a bill, we are a lawsuit happy country).

However, if we can agree this does not apply to US citizens/PR, I'll be glad to continue the discussion.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by miami_fan

The same is true in Australia. If the law in Florida banned all foreigners from buying property, that would be more in line with what Canada and Australia. Both countries have also been clear that the restrictions have been put in place to provide affordable homes for its citizens. Whether I agree or not is a different debate. The new law in Florida is not that. The law here is according to the Governor and his supporters one based on national security and to guard against a threat of the Chinese government in general and the CCP in particular. If Canada banned Americans in general and Republicans specifically from purchasing property there, I would ask the same questions about that policy that I am asking about this one.

I was not trying to equate Canada or Australia to the FL law. I understand the FL bill is just targeting the 7 countries "of concern" only. I was simply reinforcing the point that many other countries have restrictions (aka discriminate) on foreigner's buying land & property, and it would not be necessarily "bad" if the US applied some restrictions also especially if the other country(ies) do the same for US citizens/PR.

[miami_fan]

Originally Posted by Edward64

I googled on "does FL bill 264 apply to US citizens". In the returned headlines, I got ...

"restrictions on persons or entities from certain foreign countries of concern"
"prohibit Chinese citizens from purchasing land in the state"
"restrict ownership of land and property by those from seven countries of concern"
"new state law prohibits Chinese citizens"
"ban select persons from foreign countries of concern from owning ..."
"does not allow any person who is from one of those seven countries"
"targets US adversarial countries"

I guess it's possible you are correct that the proposed bill is unclear in this specific topic and does really apply to US citizens/PR (whereas I believe it does not). That would mean the Bill's summary was wrong, and the media nor ACLU/Asian American Legal Defense teams have not picked up on this issue yet.

Per my earlier statement below ... as this point is central to my position and I've been unable to convince you otherwise, I'll avoid continuing this discussion until sometime in the future where (1) media does start reporting it applies to US citizens/PR, and/or (2) there is enough evidence to convince you it does not.

I believe July 1, 2023 is the target date it goes into effect. So hopefully, it'll be clear whose interpretation is correct. I'll make a note to revisit around then.

All of those headlines are why I went to see what the bill actually says. Based on the content of the bill, the headline that is the most accurate is the "ban select persons from foreign countries of concern from owning ...". Part of the governor's defense is that Chinese citizens are not barred from owing land or property. Foreign principals are banned from owing land or property. So if a Chinese citizen can prove that they are not:

1. a govt. official in China or any of the foreign countries of concern
2. a member of a political party in any of the foreign countries of concern with the exception of Venezuela where you just can't be a part of Maduro's regime. That is still a strange one to me.
3. In a partnership, association, corporation, organization, or other com-
bination of persons organized under the laws of or having its principal place
of business in a foreign country of concern.
4. living in any of the foreign countries of concern.
5. a person, entity, or collection of persons or entities, described in
paragraphs (a) through (d) having a controlling interest in a partnership,
association, corporation, organization, trust, or any other legal entity or
subsidiary formed for the purpose of owning real property in this state

they can buy property and land in Florida without breaking the law. Based on his Wiki, a guy like Brooklyn Nets owner Joseph Tsai who considers himself Chinese would fit the above criteria. This is why the basis of the lawsuits are that the claims of national security risks are false and that asking people who are Asian, Russian, Iranian, Cuban, Venezuelan,Syrian or anyone who is suspected of anyone who looking or sounding like a person of one of those groups faces an undue burden that someone who is not or does not look like they are a part of those groups. I can't imagine how many times a Japanese national will have to explain that they are not a member of CCP cause... well ya know..

[NobodyHere]

Who should I root for in this scuffle?

https://apnews.com/article/iran-afgh...39edae7460cd5e

[Edward64]

If I had to pick one or the other, I'd root for the Taliban.

[JPhillips]

Brexit going so well that the Tories are reported to be drawing up plans for price caps on food.

[Edward64]

Good luck Turkiye in your run off. Please pull off a surprise win.

[Edward64]

I don't get it but oh well, congrats to Erdogan.

I'm guessing in Turkiye it's Religion > Economy.

Turkey’s President Erdogan seals election victory to enter third decade in power

State news agency Anadolu’s vote count shows Erdogan leading opposition candidate Kemal Kılıcdaroglu 52.11% to 47.89% with 98.52% of the vote counted.

[flere-imsaho]

Originally Posted by Edward64

If I had to pick one or the other, I'd root for the Taliban.

I wonder if we will get to see another world power (China) decide they can get involved in Afghanistan and be successful.

Originally Posted by JPhillips

Brexit going so well that the Tories are reported to be drawing up plans for price caps on food.

At this point, historically, the solution usually is to invade France.

[Edward64]

My guess is Afghanistan is safe from any invasion in the next 10+ years.

Taiwan is a different story.

[whomario]

Austrian Social Democrats announce wrong leader after ‘technical error’ | Austria | The Guardian

Austrian politics is better than any sitcom

[Edward64]

I guess it's only fair tit-for-tat. I'm sure we have electronics listening posts in Taiwan and we are ratcheting up military presence in Asia.

Cuba gives China permission to build spying facility on island, US intel says | CNN Politics

Cuba has agreed to allow China to build a spying facility on the island that could allow the Chinese to eavesdrop on electronic communications across the southeastern US, two sources familiar with the intelligence told CNN.

The US learned about the plan in the last several weeks, the first source said, and it is unclear whether China has already begun building the surveillance facility.

Somewhat reassuring statement but I'd assume this is just the first step. There'll be more stuff that China will do (e.g. maybe build a naval base, military installation)

“This report is not accurate,” National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said in a statement on Thursday afternoon. “We have had real concerns about China’s relationship with Cuba, and we have been concerned since day one of the Administration about China’s activities in our hemisphere and around the world. We are closely monitoring it and taking steps to counter it. We remain confident that we are able to meet all our security commitments at home and in the region.”

[Edward64]

Sweden, I actually admire your stance for free speech. But sometimes I think you need to compromise for the greater good (NATO membership). I'm thinking your chances now are zip for Turkiye agreeing.

Sweden Quran-burning protest approved outside mosque | CNN

Swedish authorities approved a Quran-burning demonstration outside of a mosque in the center of Stockholm on Wednesday, in a decision that may jeopardize its bid to join NATO before the bloc’s key summit in July.

The burning will coincide with the Muslim holiday of Eid-al-Adha, one of the most significant in the Islamic calendar.

The decision to permit the protest was made in accordance with the right of freedom of speech, Swedish police said, adding that the demonstration does not pose an immediate security risk.

But allowing such an inflammatory protest may stir further backlash in Turkey, a NATO member state that has obstructed Sweden’s accession bid. Sweden and neighboring Finland both formally applied to join the bloc after Russia launched its invasion of Ukraine.

[Edward64]

I've pictured the West Bank to be more sedate than Gaza. But things are definitely heating up.

Now that ISIL is relatively neutered, may be time to revisit the Palestinian situation. Probably a lost cause until Bibi is out of the picture.

IDF Jenin: Israeli military says huge incursion into West Bank refugee camp 'not over yet' | CNN

There has been a surge of violence in the West Bank in recent months.

On 20 June, seven Palestinians were killed during an Israeli raid in Jenin which saw the military's first use of an attack helicopter in the West Bank in years.

The next day, two Hamas gunmen shot dead four Israelis near the settlement of Eli, 40km (25 miles) to the south.

A Palestinian man was later shot dead during a rampage by hundreds of settlers in the nearby town of Turmusaya.

That week also saw three Palestinian militants from Jenin killed in a rare Israeli drone strike.

Since the start of the year, more than 140 Palestinians - both militants and civilians - have been killed by Israeli forces or settlers in the occupied West Bank and East Jerusalem, while another 36 have been killed in the Gaza Strip.

Twenty-four Israelis, two foreigners and a Palestinian worker have been killed in attacks or apparent attacks by Palestinians in Israel and the West Bank. All were civilians except one off-duty serving soldier and a member of the Israeli security forces.

[albionmoonlight]

UK bond interest rates are now higher than Greece's.

I guess they got what they wanted culturally with Brexit.

But, financially, it has worked out pretty much precisely as everyone said it would.

[Edward64]

Turkiye's EU = Sweden's NATO

Dunno but suspect it'll be good for Sweden, good for Turkiye, and lots of headaches for EU. Maybe set some clear expectations up front and an easier way to kick out non-conforming members.

Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan, in an unexpected move, said on Monday the European Union should open the way for Ankara's accession to the bloc before Turkey's parliament approves Sweden's bid to join the NATO military alliance.

Turkey's bid to join the EU has been frozen for years after membership talks were launched in 2005 under Erdogan's first term as prime minister.

[Edward64]

Well, maybe not ...

I have to believe there is an unofficial agreement, future concessions etc. for Turkiye to do this. But congrats Swedes, welcome to the family.

Turkey has agreed to back Sweden's NATO bid, alliance chief says | CNN Politics

NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg said on Monday that Turkey has agreed to back Sweden’s bid to join the military alliance – a major development on the eve of the NATO summit.

The announcement represents a stunning about-face from Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, who had earlier on Monday suggested Sweden could only join the alliance after his country is accepted into the European Union. Erdoğan has stood in the path of Sweden joining NATO for more than a year over a multitude of concerns.

Speaking at a news conference in Vilnius, Lithuania, following a meeting with Erdoğan and Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson, Stoltenberg said that the Turkish president “has agreed to forward the accession protocol for Sweden to the Grand National Assembly as soon as possible, and work closely with the Assembly to ensure ratification.”

[Edward64]

Looks like it was

Sweden NATO = Turkiye F16's + some nebulous best efforts wording to do this & that

Hours after Ankara’s decision was revealed, the administration of United States President Joe Biden announced it will move forward with the transfer of F-16 fighter jets to Turkey in consultation with the US Congress, in what seemed to be a trade-off for Ankara’s green light to Stockholm’s NATO membership.

Separately, the Pentagon said on Tuesday that US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin discussed his country’s role in Turkey’s military modernisation with Turkish Defence Minister Yasar Guler on the phone – another indication that negotiations over Sweden’s entry were helped along by a US-Turkey defence deal.

Doesn't seem like Erdogan got much. Got F-16s, coulda have gotten F-35s four years ago.

Ankara sought to purchase US F-16s and modernise the ones it already owns as compensation for its 2019 removal from a US-led international programme developing and producing new F-35 fighter jets. Washington sacked Turkey from the popular scheme after its purchase of the S-400 defence system from Russia despite warnings from the US.

[Edward64]

Huh, forgot there was a Green Zone.

Sweden & Denmark - can't you just come up with an half-way decent excuse and not allow these Quran burning until Sweden actually gets voted in? Afterwards, burn all you want. Freedom of speech is obviously important but this Quran burning free speech is irrelevant when we're talking about the future security of a country.

Protesters try to storm Baghdad's Green Zone over the burning of Quran and Iraqi flag in Denmark | AP News

Hundreds of protesters attempted to storm Baghdad’s heavily fortified Green Zone, which houses foreign embassies and the seat of Iraq’s government, early Saturday following reports an ultranationalist group burned a copy of the Quran in front of the Iraqi Embassy in Copenhagen.

Security forces pushed back protesters, who blocked the Jumhuriya bridge leading to the Green Zone, preventing them from reaching the Danish Embassy.

The protest came two days after people angered by the planned burning of the Islamic holy book in Sweden stormed the Swedish Embassy in Baghdad. Protesters occupied the diplomatic post for several hours, waving flags and signs showing the influential Iraqi Shiite cleric and political leader Muqtada al-Sadr, and setting a small fire. The embassy staff had been evacuated a day earlier.

Can't wait until ME oil is no longer strategic to us. Com'on Elon, get us that $25K Tesla 2 for the masses.

[NobodyHere]

The situation in West Africa has all the makings of a sh*t show.

ECOWAS orders standby force against Niger junta

I wonder how groups like Boko Haram will take advantage of the situation and how Joe Biden will respond to all this.

[Edward64]

I read somewhere the US has 1K troops in Niger, so not an insignificant commitment to that region.

I'd think we would support the ECOWAS troops with intel, logistics & $. It'd wouldn't be good for the US geopolitically to let this stand (e.g. much increased Russian influence, much decreased US influence).

I don't know much about the domestic politics but do wonder if this coup is better for the citizens of Niger vs previous regime.

[Edward64]

Looks like things are flaring up in a region that I don't know much about (and don't know who the good vs bad guys are).

Azerbaijan launches operation against Armenian forces in Nagorno-Karabakh | CNN

At least 32 people have been killed and 200 others wounded in a military operation by Azerbaijan in the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh region, according to an official in Armenian-controlled territory there.

Azerbaijan’s defense ministry said Tuesday it had begun an “anti-terrorist” campaign in the region, an ethnic Armenian enclave that is internationally recognized as part of Azerbaijan and which has been the cause of two wars between the neighbors in the past three decades, most recently in 2020.

The conflict area right now in the circle. Armenia splits Azerbaijan which I'm guessing is the real crux of the issue.

[NobodyHere]

Geez, one separatist gets killed and India and Canada are at each other's throats.

Hardeep Singh Niijar: India suspends visas for Canadian nationals as diplomatic spat deepens | CNN

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by NobodyHere

Geez, one separatist gets killed and India and Canada are at each other's throats.

Hardeep Singh Niijar: India suspends visas for Canadian nationals as diplomatic spat deepens | CNN

I was reading r/India and other reddit threads. Seems the quote below is causing a good introspective and many Indians are thinking "yeah, maybe we did do it" and the quoted ally is US intelligence. I'm not sure I'm ready to condemn the Modi/Indian government, I can easily see sub-organizations (?) doing things without Modi's express approval.

India is asking for evidence and this is reasonable. Trudeau is saying no (I assume because that would jeopardize intelligence sources & capabilities). In a situation like this, I personally think Trudeau/US needs to provide some details, some transcript naming names etc.

And apparently Joe knew about this at the G20 and spoke to Modi. Understandably, he didn't want it to blow up then. I read in a reddit post (not verified) that apparently Canadian press found out, told Trudeau they were going to publish the story. So that forced Trudeau's hand and he came out with the story.

Interesting situation, not sure how it plays out.

Canada's Trudeau wants India to cooperate in murder probe, declines to release evidence | Reuters

The CBC report said, citing Canadian sources, that no Indian official, when pressed behind closed doors has denied the allegation that there is evidence suggesting Indian government involvement in Nijjar's death. India's Ministry of External Affairs did not immediately respond to a Reuters request for comment on the CBC report.

The report said the intelligence included communications involving Indian officials, among them Indian diplomats present in Canada, adding that some of the intelligence was provided by an unidentified ally in the Five Eyes alliance.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Having finally found a version of the story that clarified (for me) that this was not a Canadian killed in India but rather an Indian killed in Canada ...

So this was someone on the official Indian government list of known terrorists.
Whether me or you would consider him one, they definitely do ... err, did.

I wonder how many nations have taken actions against a terrorist on foreign soil without the ensuing kerfluffle not becoming media fodder? I'd say the number would probably be at least a dozen, and that might be on the low side.

This reeks of shitty information management more than anything else.

[Edward64]

This would be fantastic if there is normalization.

Netanyahu says Israel nears normalization deal with Saudi Arabia but refuses to outline concessions to Palestinians | CNN

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said it is “likely” Israel will reach a normalization agreement with Saudi Arabia, in what would mark a seismic foreign policy shift for both countries as they edge closer to reaching a deal mediated by the US.
:
But he refused repeatedly to say what kind of concessions he would offer Palestinians in order to get the deal across the line.

It would “change the Middle East forever,” he said – bringing down “walls of enmity” and creating “a corridor of energy pipelines, rail lines, fiber optic cables, between Asia through Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Israel, and the United Arab Emirates.”

I'd be skeptical but seems there is some substantial negotiations going on. I do wonder how much input the Palestinians have had.

This week, Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman said that a normalization pact with Israel would be “the biggest historical deal since the Cold War.”

In an interview with Fox News, bin Salman added that he hopes the deal will “reach a place that will ease the life of the Palestinians” – but stopped short of calling for the establishment of an independent Palestinian state, which has been Riyadh’s official stance for two decades.

[Edward64]

No surprise but article is confirming it was the US that found/supplied the Five Eyes intel to Canada.

https://www.seattletimes.com/nation-...f-sikh-leader/

American spy agencies provided information to Ottawa, Ontario, after the killing of a Sikh separatist leader, but Canada developed the most definitive intelligence that led it to accuse India of orchestrating the plot, according to Western allied officials.

In the aftermath of the killing, U.S. intelligence agencies offered their Canadian counterparts context that helped Canada conclude that India had been involved. Yet what appears to be the “smoking gun,” intercepted communications of Indian diplomats in Canada indicating involvement in the plot, was gathered by Canadian officials, allied officials said.

The United States routinely, and automatically, shares huge amounts of intercepted communications with its closest intelligence partners, including Canada. But the contextual information about the killing was shared deliberately as part of a package of various intelligence streams.

India is asking for the evidence for the accusation. Canada should provide some level of evidence (e.g. names & transcripts of those diplomats discussing it).

[Fidatelo]

Screw that. India wants to find out how they got caught or flush out some spies. They know what they did.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by Fidatelo

Screw that. India wants to find out how they got caught or flush out some spies. They know what they did.

First China. And now India. Can't Canadians just get along with others?

jk

[Edward64]

You go Marcos. You show the 300lb bully that you aren't scared of them (especially since you have your own 300lb, semi-bully backing you up).

I suspect China will escalate with bluster & rhetoric. Philippines should return in kind (measured & proportional). Otherwise, China will just run over all those countries contesting the Spratleys area.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-66913554

The Philippines says it has removed a floating barrier installed by China to block Philippine fishing boats entering a contested area in the South China Sea.

The Philippines coast guard said it had been instructed to do so by President Ferdinand Marcos Junior.

[NobodyHere]

Originally Posted by Edward64

First China. And now India. Can't Canadians just get along with others?

jk

And now they made Jewish people angry

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-66908958

[Fidatelo]

Originally Posted by NobodyHere

And now they made Jewish people angry

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-66908958

Yeah this one is a legit disaster. It was almost certainly (at least I freaking hope) an accident but the speaker should almost certainly step down for this.

[NobodyHere]

Originally Posted by Fidatelo

Yeah this one is a legit disaster. It was almost certainly (at least I freaking hope) an accident but the speaker should almost certainly step down for this.

Ask and you shall receive

Canada’s House speaker steps down after honoring Nazi veteran

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by NobodyHere

And now they made Jewish people angry

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-66908958

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by Edward64

This would be fantastic if there is normalization.

Looks pretty darn serious. If the below are the only terms, I'd be disappointed. Joe needs to buy us more time (10 years?) for "stable" oil prices.

Saudi Arabia tries to reassure the Palestinians – but of what? - GZERO Media

What do the Saudis want? While Riyadh, custodian of two of the holiest sites in Islam, is attempting to show that it remains committed to the Palestinian cause, it is more concerned about getting Washington’s assistance to build a civilian nuclear program and other security guarantees from Uncle Joe. The Biden administration says these concessions would be contingent on Saudi normalization with Israel.

I'd be skeptical but seems there is some substantial negotiations going on. I do wonder how much input the Palestinians have had.

Looks like the Palestinians didn't have much input.

The view from the Palestinian camp is that a thaw between Israel and Saudi is a betrayal of the Palestinians and a departure from the Saudis’ previous position that they wouldn’t embrace Israel until the Palestinian issue was settled. Riyadh, for its part, had previously said that this would have to include Israel's withdrawal from some areas, such as the West Bank, East Jerusalem and the Golan Heights.

Overall, huge news (if true). Surprised I'm not reading more on MSM.

Great for Israel and Saudi Arabia. Not that great for the Palestinians, rest of region has moved on.

[Edward64]

Below deal makes sense. If I was SA I would want significant guarantees for making nice with Israel. Joe needs to somehow also get "stable oil prices for the next 10 years" in there.

Article also said this may help Joe's re-election chances. I honestly don't think it'll be enough to get people to change and vote for him. Trump also is due some credit for starting the process with the smaller ME countries. But I'm guessing Bibi gets wins easily next time.

US-Saudi defense pact tied to Israel deal, Palestinian... | Daily Mail Online

Saudi Arabia is seeking a defense pact requiring the US to defend the Islamic kingdom if it is attacked

Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and Joe Biden first discussed the potential agreement on the president's visit to the Gulf in July 2022

In return for the protection of America's military, Saudi would agree to softening relations with Israel - even if Jerusalem refuses to grant freedoms to Palestinians

The pact is likely to fall short of the NATO-style guarantee but could mirror similar arrangements with Bahrain - where the US Navy Fifth Fleet is based

Saudis will reach a peace deal with Israel, even without Palestine - The Jerusalem Post

The Palestinians could get some Israeli restrictions eased but such moves would fall short of their aspirations for a state. As with other Arab-Israeli deals forged over the decades, the Palestinian core demand for statehood would take a back seat, the three regional sources familiar with the talks said.

"The normalization will be between Israel and Saudi Arabia. If the Palestinians oppose it the kingdom will continue in its path," said one of the regional sources. "Saudi Arabia supports a peace plan for the Palestinians, but this time it wanted something for Saudi Arabia, not just for the Palestinians."

[Brian Swartz]

Originally Posted by Edward64

Joe needs to somehow also get "stable oil prices for the next 10 years" in there.

Do you think that would do anything more than just kick the can down the road? If so, why? We are going to be heavily dependent on oil for decades, way beyond the point where it will be available the price and quantity we need. By we, I mean both the United States and the world.

Totally agree with your take that this won't move the needle in the election.

I think the time when this kind of deal would make a lot of strategic sense was at least 20 years ago at a minimum, and probably further back. We're too close to the end of cheap oil for it to be a good idea now.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by Brian Swartz

Do you think that would do anything more than just kick the can down the road? If so, why? We are going to be heavily dependent on oil for decades, way beyond the point where it will be available the price and quantity we need. By we, I mean both the United States and the world.

I can't speak for the world, but for US we are on the cusp (famous last words) of greatly reducing our oil needs with EVs. Get me the Tesla 2 for $25k with a range of 300 miles + quick charging stations everywhere, and there'll be a mass adoption.

I'm hoping/guessing that'll take 10 years.

I think the time when this kind of deal would make a lot of strategic sense was at least 20 years ago at a minimum, and probably further back. We're too close to the end of cheap oil for it to be a good idea now.

This deal isn't primarily for cheap oil. I'd put that third behind 1) stability in the region including keeping Iran in check and 2) deflecting China's influence in the region.

On the next tier down including 3) cheaper oil prices, I'd also toss in 4) helping out an ally in Israel 5) reducing the leverage other oil frenemies have on us and 6) arguably good for American business.

The primary con is we are "obligated" to help defend SA. We have & are already doing it, so not sure how much more incremental stuff there'll be.

I want to read all the details on what the security obligations will be. But this does seem to be headed in the right direction.

[Brian Swartz]

I think I misunderstood your emphasis - the way you said multiple times that we need to get stable oil prices in there made me think that was a critical element for you.

Originally Posted by Edward64

or US we are on the cusp (famous last words) of greatly reducing our oil needs with EVs. Get me the Tesla 2 for $25k with a range of 300 miles + quick charging stations everywhere, and there'll be a mass adoption.

I'm hoping/guessing that'll take 10 years.

Even if we never used a drop of oil again in a passenger vehicle, we would still have huge oil dependence. EVs are a small positive step IMO, but passenger vehicles are less than half of the oil we consume. Volatility in oil prices will still be deeply felt. We're also dependent on imports for some of the materials required to make EVs, so ...

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by Brian Swartz

Even if we never used a drop of oil again in a passenger vehicle, we would still have huge oil dependence. EVs are a small positive step IMO, but passenger vehicles are less than half of the oil we consume. Volatility in oil prices will still be deeply felt.

See below graphic.

Passenger vehicles may be less than half but it is the biggest portion by far. Motor gasoline is 43% of use (total 20.3M barrels a day). Logically, if we greatly increase EV adoption, that 43% will reduce considerably.

Use of oil - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by Edward64

I want to read all the details on what the security obligations will be. But this does seem to be headed in the right direction.

Some more details on what SA and UAE wants.

https://www.cnn.com/2023/10/02/middl...ntl/index.html

Two of the United States’ closest Arab allies are asking the Biden administration to formalize their military relationship with a wide-ranging agreement as Washington becomes uneasy about China’s growing role in the Middle East.
:
A security pact is at the heart of Saudi Arabia’s talks with Washington over potential normalization of ties with Israel – which, if achieved, would mark a significant foreign policy win for President Joe Biden ahead of the 2024 US presidential elections.

Last month, MBS for the first time publicly acknowledged the normalization talks, saying his country was moving “closer” each day to reaching a deal with Israel.

Yeah right. Considering how often our interests do not align, frak this. We will be absolutely idiots to concede an "ironclad" guarantee. Let the rich kids spend their money and build/hire themselves an army.

It is important to move from an “informal” security arrangement “to something that’s formal,” he said at a conference in New York, calling for a new, “ironclad” security arrangement with the US.

Good thinking ...

Experts say the Gulf states may be disappointed as the US is unlikely to extend a blanket security agreement that could get it further bogged down in the Middle East’s conflicts
:
It is however unclear if the US would commit to a treaty that would require it to come to the Gulf states’ defense in case of attack.

[Edward64]

Originally Posted by Edward64

re: Haiti

Glad UN & US could find a country that will (likely) accept the assignment. It's evident there isn't a lot of "will" here so I predict failure.


Article said the Kenyan police don't have a great reputation at home. I'm sure Kenya isn't doing without some $. Wonder what they are getting.


I wish Haiti had a lot of oil or rare earth metals. Whole different story then.

Finally approved after about a year. I'm sure there'll be some bad stuff as a result, but overall, a chance for a reboot. $200M sounds like a bargain.

UN Security Council approves sending a Kenya-led force to Haiti to fight violent gangs | AP News

The U.N. Security Council voted Monday to send a multinational armed force led by Kenya to Haiti to help combat violent gangs, marking the first time in almost 20 years that a force would be deployed to the troubled Caribbean nation.
:
Kenyan Foreign Affairs Minister Alfred Mutua said last week that the force could deploy within two to three months, or possibly early January. He also noted that key officers are being taught French.

The resolution authorizes the force to deploy for one year, with a review after nine months. The non-U.N. mission would be funded by voluntary contributions, with the U.S. pledging up to $200 million.

I wondered what Kenya gets out of this also. No idea what the "defence agreement" means. From aljazeera.com ...

The United States and Kenya have signed a defence agreement that will see the East African nation get resources and support for security deployments as it has volunteered to lead an international mission to violence-plagued Haiti.

US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and Kenya’s Defence Minister Aden Duale signed the accord on Monday at a meeting in the Kenyan capital, Nairobi, guiding the countries’ defence relations for the next five years.

“Signing the framework for defence cooperation between our two countries today reinforces the importance of our strategic partnership with Kenya,” Austin said following the meeting, according to a readout by the Pentagon.

The US defence chief underscored Kenya’s role in the fight against al-Shabab, an armed group affiliated with al-Qaeda that is active in East Africa.

[NobodyHere]

I can't see this ending well in Haiti. Kenyans speak a different language and probably having no understanding of the culture in Haiti.

[Edward64]

Don't disagree with you. No country really wants to go into the sh*thole that is Haiti right now. Kenya was the only option and everyone is aware of Kenyan policing reputation. So, better than nothing.

[miami_fan]

Originally Posted by Edward64

Some more details on what SA and UAE wants.

Biden's Gulf allies want an 'ironclad' security pact with the US. Here's what it might look like | CNN

Yeah right. Considering how often our interests do not align, frak this. We will be absolutely idiots to concede an "ironclad" guarantee. Let the rich kids spend their money and build/hire themselves an army.


Good thinking ...

Even if the rich kids decided to hire the Chinese army? Because that looks like the other option according to the article.

What would an ironclad guarantee look like if that were an agreement between UAE/SA and China? I mean if it is as simple as China telling Iran and Yemen not to attack UAE and SA, that seems like a good way to garner investment from countries like UAE and SA.

[Edward64]

You're right that "ironclad" has not been defined yet. I interpret that as "if I'm attacked, you come and help including boots on the ground".

I doubt China will agree to an ironclad security guarantee. They'll willingly step into the vacuum and sell their military weapons and continue their silk road projects in trade for a steady supply of oil, but don't see China sending boots on the ground to defend SA if there is war with Iran or if Yemen makes inroads.

IMO for the long term, developing closer ties with India > Saudi Arabia. India is the natural (and willing) counter weight to China.

[miami_fan]

Originally Posted by Edward64

You're right that "ironclad" has not been defined yet. I interpret that as "if I'm attacked, you come and help including boots on the ground".

I doubt China will agree to an ironclad security guarantee. They'll willingly step into the vacuum and sell their military weapons and continue their silk road projects in trade for a steady supply of oil, but don't see China sending boots on the ground to defend SA if there is war with Iran or if Yemen makes inroads.

IMO for the long term, developing closer ties with India > Saudi Arabia. India is the natural (and willing) counter weight to China.

That would be the requirement for the U.S.. If I am China, that guarantee is based on the influence I believe I have on Iran and Yemen. If China has that influence then the only way Chinese boots are on the ground is if the West has boots on the ground in an aggressive posture.

Now whether it is wise for China to believe that they would ever have that sort of influence is another discussion entirely. They are taking their turn at trying to bring peace to the Middle East. They have the benefit of being seen as a neutral party by most of the parties involved and has been willing to invest (bribe?) in the region without outwardly interfering in regional affairs.