Werewolf Small Game XI -- Divination Nation! (GAME OVER WOLVES WIN!! )

[path12]

Deadline. Let me tally the votes.

[path12]

Final vote total:

Lathum (6): InTheCrew (44), DaddyTorgo (58), hoopsguy (63), Chief Rum (71), Alan T (81), RendeR (121)

InTheCrew (2): Lathum (41), st.cronin (43)

No vote: ntndeacon

The class was shaken to know that there were wolves amongst them. Mr. Felix had left for the local news station to try and, well, not exactly 'cover up' what was happening -- more like 'divert the issue' until things could be brought under control.

Everybody did their scans. Lathum shouted "I've got one! It's ImTheCrew!" ITC shouted back "Oh yeah? Lathum is the wolf!" In the ensuing chaos DaddyTorgo piped up "I got Lathum too!" and the decision was made. "We should really try and come up with a plan here..." mused Alan T.

Lathum was rounded up and killed with a stake. "Hmmm, that seemed kind of easy", said st.cronin. "I'm kind of new to the school, but do they usually just go limp like that?" asked RendeR. "Not usually" replied Chief Rum.

They waited for Lathum to change into a wolf. And waited. And waited.

hoopsguy finally spoke up: "Crap. What was that incantation again?" and went back to his books.

LATHUM WAS A STUDENT.

NIGHT 1 IS UNDERWAY. ACTIONS ARE DUE BY 9AM EASTERN TOMORROW. DON'T EXPECT RESULTS FOR AN HOUR OR SO.

[st.cronin]

Well, that was unexpected.

[hoopsguy]

OK, so we have two people who viewed Lathum as a wolf - me and Daddy Torgo. We both have one scan suggesting we are good, but obviously we have to put additional resources towards us to see if there is reasonable suspicion if we were full of crap.

Lathum had ITC as a wolf, so we know that he was being honest with his 75%. Probably should have a second scan on him tonight as well.

Since I'm obviously looking pretty suspicious at this point I'll defer to others on coordinating activity here beyond these thoughts. I should be around for the next couple of hours and will participate in the discussion as much as people want me to. I know that I reported my results honestly today (albeit incorrectly), but obviously others don't have the luxury of knowing this.

[DaddyTorgo]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Lathum had ITC as a wolf, so we know that he was being honest with his 75%. Probably should have a second scan on him tonight as well.

we don't know anything about ITC, except for the fact that lathum was 75% sure he was a wolf.

and obviously if i can say i'm 75% sure lathum is a wolf and he isn't....we're definately going to see some problems coming out of that. i can't speak for hoops, but if he's truthful too, then we've seriously seen the tiny odds come to bite us in the butt at least once.

along with hoops, since this result obviously puts me under suspiscion, although i know i'm good, i will defer to the student-group to decide where i should direct my scan

[RendeR]

I will be scanning rummy.

[st.cronin]

My guess is anybody who said "wolf" on day 1 is much more likely to be a wolf than a student. In a game this small, and with all these scans, no way would a wolf do anything but try to spread confusion on day 1.

Of course, there is some self-interest there as well - I reported DT as student. I also know I am a student.

[st.cronin]

My scan went for ntndeacon, as I said it would.

[RendeR]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

My guess is anybody who said "wolf" on day 1 is much more likely to be a wolf than a student. In a game this small, and with all these scans, no way would a wolf do anything but try to spread confusion on day 1.

Of course, there is some self-interest there as well - I reported DT as student. I also know I am a student.

But my 75% says you're a wolf

[st.cronin]

Originally Posted by RendeR

But my 75% says you're a wolf

To paraphrase Lathum, your math is off.

[st.cronin]

I'm really surprised at the lack of discussion.

[RendeR]

We're all just dumbfounded that lathum was a student after he did his best to act like he was covering his furry werewolf butt

[hoopsguy]

Path, just doing a quick review of the rules - are there any special wolf roles? Just want to make sure that we are correctly interpreting the available data.

No cunning wolf?

Also, I think it makes sense that DaddyT not scan me and I not scan him. We obviously both have reason to believe the other is a wolf if we are villagers. That makes sense to me when I type it - hopefully it does to others when they read it. So, I'm willing to go along with someone's plan for scanning but I would strongly prefer not to scan DaddyT because I'll be rooting for a result and it will have potential to be seen as self-serving.

[ntndeacon]

Originally Posted by Alan T

So to update our list:

Lathum says ImTheCrew is a wolf
Hoopsguy says Lathum is a wolf


Cronin says DaddyTorgo is a student
Alan T says Hoopsguy is a student.

sorry I did not get to vote on day 1. but I did scan someone. I scanned Chief Rum and he came up student

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by RendeR

Lathum talks way too much and posted himself in the noose for tonight.

[Lathum]

good luck all, I'm not sure what else I could have done.

[RendeR]

Originally Posted by Lathum

good luck all, I'm not sure what else I could have done.

Honestly, based on the, now obviously innacurate, readings people got on you, and the way things fell out, the more you posted the more it made you look like a wolf.

My vote got swayed by that and the fact that my scan labeled Cronin and you two were the only ones voting for ITC. Sorry man, but the circumstantial evidence painted you furry. =(

[ntndeacon]

Originally Posted by Alan T

Then I would suggest altering your choices on who Imthecrew scans, who you scan Daddy and Im not sure if we can count on ntndeacon, he hasnt joined in the conversation yet at all.

You also leave out anyone scanning me, or you or hoops, whom we should probably get someone on that group. You also have more people scanning Chief then I would right now and you dont need 2 people on cronin if he already had one scan on him today.

I will be willing to scan whoever. It was just a long day.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by RendeR

Honestly, based on the, now obviously innacurate, readings people got on you, and the way things fell out, the more you posted the more it made you look like a wolf.

don't take this the wrong way but once you play in enough games you realize I was a goner either way. I'm not gonna go down without a fight, and the more discussion generated the better for the good guys.

[DaddyTorgo]

sorry lathum. strictly playin the percentages brotha. I'm as much as student as you though, fyi.

And i agree with hoops. The two of us should definately scan someone else rather than scanning each other.

[ntndeacon]

Does it seem to anyone else that three that we really should be looking at are DaddyTorgo, st. cronin, and ImTheCrew? Those could easily be all three of the wolves.

Assuming Render's viewing was both accurate and accurately reported, then cronin's viewing of DT has to be viewed as flawed. in addition to ITC being viewed as a wolf by a now known seer. They are certainly at the top of the do not trust list at the very least.

[ntndeacon]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Path, just doing a quick review of the rules - are there any special wolf roles? Just want to make sure that we are correctly interpreting the available data.

No cunning wolf?

Also, I think it makes sense that DaddyT not scan me and I not scan him. We obviously both have reason to believe the other is a wolf if we are villagers. That makes sense to me when I type it - hopefully it does to others when they read it. So, I'm willing to go along with someone's plan for scanning but I would strongly prefer not to scan DaddyT because I'll be rooting for a result and it will have potential to be seen as self-serving.

hoops if you want I will scan DT instead and let you scan ITC. that would be fine with me.

[hoopsguy]

I don't see a master plan for us to follow. The one Alan proposed prior to results has no one scanning DT, which probably is not the right way to go given our results.

I'll submit a scan now, but be willing to change it. I won't scan Cronin (could be perceived as "protecting" him), Alan (who scanned me as good), DaddyT (also had Lathum incorrectly as wolf) or Crew (Lathum's scan). So I'll be looking to scan someone who has a profile not as closely associated, for good or bad with me up to this point in the game.

[Alan T]

I still say we need to make sure people in one grouping don't scan each other as that gives the best way for a wolf to slip through.

Daddytorgo, Hoops, Alan , Ntndeacon and Chief should not scan each other tonight.

Imthecrew, Cronin, Render should not scan each other.

Top suspects right now that have wolf claims against them are:

Imthecrew
Cronin

Both because they were pointed out as a possible wolf by someone else.

Next tier of people we need more info on are:

Render
Hoopsguy
Daddytorgo

All of whom were scanned once as good, but pointed people out as wolves.

[Alan T]

Lathum says ImTheCrew is a wolf
Hoopsguy says Lathum is a wolf
Daddytorgo says Lathum is a wolf.
Render says St.Cronin is a wolf.

Cronin says DaddyTorgo is a student
Alan T says Hoopsguy is a student.
Chief Rum says Alan T is a student.
Imthecrew says Render is a student.
Ntndeacon says Chief is a student.

[Alan T]

I would do something like:

Hoopsguy scans Render
Daddytorgo scans ntndeacon
Render scans Alan
Cronin scans Chief
Alan scans Cronin
Chief scans Imthecrew
Imthecrew scans Daddytorgo
Ntndeacon scans Cronin

[st.cronin]

I already sent in my scan, ntn. I guess I could change it.

[DaddyTorgo]

i will send in my scan for NTN before I go to bed.

[ntndeacon]

I just sent my scan in . it was for ITC. If cronin has a scan in for me then my viewing him seems to me as spite. and as he let on that he wanted to scan me before the votes were cast...I will go to another candidate I believe is a wolf.

[path12]

Originally Posted by hoopsguy

Path, just doing a quick review of the rules - are there any special wolf roles? Just want to make sure that we are correctly interpreting the available data.

No cunning wolf?

All roles are as detailed as in the rules. There are no hidden roles.

[ntndeacon]

Originally Posted by Alan T

I still say we need to make sure people in one grouping don't scan each other as that gives the best way for a wolf to slip through.

Daddytorgo, Hoops, Alan , Ntndeacon and Chief should not scan each other tonight.

Imthecrew, Cronin, Render should not scan each other.

Top suspects right now that have wolf claims against them are:

Imthecrew
Cronin

Both because they were pointed out as a possible wolf by someone else.

Next tier of people we need more info on are:

Render
Hoopsguy
Daddytorgo

All of whom were scanned once as good, but pointed people out as wolves.

just a note I would put DaddyTorgo and Render ahead of Hoopsguy due to the suspicion that is on those that "scanned" since remember that ITC scanned Render and st. cronin scanned DT.

[Chief Rum]

Sorry, Lathum. Thanks for taking it well. Obviously we were hoodwinked by wolves today. It will be harder for them to play a double int he future, but obviously, that doesn't help you.

My head is spinning a bit from all the plans and changes and late scan reveals, but it seems I am to scan ITC. I am fine with that, and will send that in.

[hoopsguy]

I had already sent my order in for RendeR, so that works out nicely - don't need to send another PM to the moderator.

From my perspective, I don't know if there was a "hoodwinking" that took place yesterday. Guess that depends on DaddyTorgo.

[DaddyTorgo]

no hoodwinking here. i'm a student. like i said, guess we just hit the small probability that we were both deceived.

[path12]

OK, I'm here. Will process night now.

[Alan T]

Got my pm results, I also saw St.Cronin show up as a wolf.

[Alan T]

Continuing from yesterday's list will add on more from today.


Lathum says ImTheCrew is a wolf
Hoopsguy says Lathum is a wolf
Daddytorgo says Lathum is a wolf.
Render says St.Cronin is a wolf.
Alan T says St.cronin is a wolf.

Cronin says DaddyTorgo is a student
Alan T says Hoopsguy is a student.
Chief Rum says Alan T is a student.
Imthecrew says Render is a student.
Ntndeacon says Chief is a student.

[st.cronin]

Results are back, ntndeacon is a student.

[path12]

You all work late into the night doing your scans. The unfamiliar process saps your energy and you all fall fast asleep as soon as you are done.

You awake to find RendeR with his throat ripped out. Mr. Felix will not be happy about this at all. Not to mention RendeR, who you realize is a fellow student.

DAY 2 IS UNDERWAY. DEADLINE IS 9PM EASTERN.

[st.cronin]

hmmmmm

[st.cronin]

Vote ImTheCrew

ImTheCrew and myself are the only ones accused of being a wolf by a KNOWN student. I know I'm a student, but the odds are that ITC is a wolf. Hence my vote.

[Lathum]

I am looking forward to reading along with this today

[st.cronin]

I still think we have to look at people who are crying "wolf." Its to the wolves advantage to MAXIMIZE the number of candidates for a lynch - that way they can control the vote.

I've cleared two people - DaddyTorgo, and ntndeacon. There is no way, in a game like this, that a wolf would clear ANYBODY.

That gives us hoopsguy, DaddyTorgo, and AlanT.

unvote ImTheCrew
vote AlanT

Assuming Alan is a wolf - he knew Renders scan was off, knew that Render was going to be killed, thus knew it was safe to accuse me of being a wolf.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

I still think we have to look at people who are crying "wolf." Its to the wolves advantage to MAXIMIZE the number of candidates for a lynch - that way they can control the vote.

I've cleared two people - DaddyTorgo, and ntndeacon. There is no way, in a game like this, that a wolf would clear ANYBODY.

That gives us hoopsguy, DaddyTorgo, and AlanT.

unvote ImTheCrew
vote AlanT

Assuming Alan is a wolf - he knew Renders scan was off, knew that Render was going to be killed, thus knew it was safe to accuse me of being a wolf.

Thats what you would like people to think. Of course we won't allow the fact that everyone who has scanned you has showed you to be a Wolf, and everyone who has scanned me so far has shown me to be a student.

The only reason I didn't vote you immediately is I wanted to see ntndeacon's results as well. Since I know Render was good yesterday, I know there was no funny business with him saying you were a wolf. I know I am a student, so Im not pulling anything. Is it possible that we both got unlucky with our scan of you? Sure.. but your reaction makes me find that unlikely.

I suspected you yesterday even before Render's coming out to find you a wolf just based on how you played, and I will be really suprised if you end up a student.

[Alan T]

Just so everyone understands what Cronin wants you to believe:

Chief failed a 75% chance of scanning me
Render failed a 75% chance of scanning him
I failed a 75% chance of scanning him
Ntndeacon's scan which I am guessing will come back as wolf also fails a 75% chance of scanning him.

There is alot of math that makes Cronin's claim somewhat unlikely. Instead what is more probible is he killed the person who planned on scanning me to try to create doubt, but unfortunatly for him the math just doesn't stand up.

[st.cronin]

Originally Posted by Alan T

Thats what you would like people to think. Of course we won't allow the fact that everyone who has scanned you has showed you to be a Wolf, and everyone who has scanned me so far has shown me to be a student.

The only reason I didn't vote you immediately is I wanted to see ntndeacon's results as well. Since I know Render was good yesterday, I know there was no funny business with him saying you were a wolf. I know I am a student, so Im not pulling anything. Is it possible that we both got unlucky with our scan of you? Sure.. but your reaction makes me find that unlikely.

I suspected you yesterday even before Render's coming out to find you a wolf just based on how you played, and I will be really suprised if you end up a student.

As surprised as you were to find Lathum a student?

Your use of "everyone" really distorts the case. There are 2 accusations against me - the same # as were against Lathum. There is 1 person clearing you, Chief Rum. Hardly overwhelming evidence either way.

I also note you didn't comment on my main point, which is what basic wolf strategy in this game must neccesarily be - to make accusations, and maximize candidates. Think about it.

[st.cronin]

Originally Posted by Alan T

Just so everyone understands what Cronin wants you to believe:

Chief failed a 75% chance of scanning me
Render failed a 75% chance of scanning him
I failed a 75% chance of scanning him
Ntndeacon's scan which I am guessing will come back as wolf also fails a 75% chance of scanning him.

There is alot of math that makes Cronin's claim somewhat unlikely. Instead what is more probible is he killed the person who planned on scanning me to try to create doubt, but unfortunatly for him the math just doesn't stand up.

Why would I kill the person who had scanned me and called me wolf? That would be really, really dumb.

[st.cronin]

dola

Those odds are not what I believe. What I believe is that you are a wolf, and possibly that Chief Rum is too. If I believed that both of you were students, and had just rolled unlucky, I would say so.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

As surprised as you were to find Lathum a student?

Your use of "everyone" really distorts the case. There are 2 accusations against me - the same # as were against Lathum. There is 1 person clearing you, Chief Rum. Hardly overwhelming evidence either way.

I also note you didn't comment on my main point, which is what basic wolf strategy in this game must neccesarily be - to make accusations, and maximize candidates. Think about it.

I didn't maximize any candidates. Going into today we had two candidates. You and Imthecrew. I didn't bring either of you into this, Render and Lathum who both have been found good did. Your comment about me maximizing candidates is completely a distraction tactic so I chose to ignore it. I have just found confirmation to back Render's scan.

Originally Posted by st.cronin

Why would I kill the person who had scanned me and called me wolf? That would be really, really dumb.

Either that or you knew I planned on scanning you and he planned on scanning me and the only thing you could do was either hope for lucky dice rolls or have this strat as a backup plan which you are using to cause doubt. Like I said before I'm waiting for ntn to return with his results before I cast a vote, but your comments sure are removing much doubt i had about you.

[Alan T]

Originally Posted by st.cronin

dola

Those odds are not what I believe. What I believe is that you are a wolf, and possibly that Chief Rum is too. If I believed that both of you were students, and had just rolled unlucky, I would say so.

Well lucky for you , that according to my list you had a chance to scan chief last night but chose not to do so.

Im not trying to convince you that you are a wolf, Im just waiting for ntn's results to come back. I know I'm good, and I believe you are bad, and so far all of the info we have supports that. If others feel like believing your fairy tale then so be it. I am guessing most people will be a little more sensible than that and stick to the facts.