Sony PS3 to be delayed to 07, and Cost $900 to make?

[Bee]

Originally Posted by gstelmack

If the rumored 360 price drop comes through, you're talking $300, which would be DOUBLE the price. We're not talking small change here, we're talking a 360 at $300 vs a PS3 at $600 (or a crippled version at $500). You're not talking the $50 here or there that have plagued previous console wars, you're instead talking about being able to pick up a pair of 360s for the price of a single PS3. But even if the price drop doesn't come through, you're still talking about a 1/3 difference in price. That's significant. People paid more for the 360 on E-Bay because it was the only next-gen game in town. For the PS3 launch, they'll have a choice between paying $600 in a store (or $1000+ on E-Bay if they have supply problems like Microsoft did) for a PS3, or $300-$400 for a 360 that does pretty much the same stuff.

That's all true for people who research these things and know the market. But there are tons of people out there that just buy what Little Jimmy wants and this year it'll be a PS3 because that's the new one, not last year's console. Those are the people that drive the EBay market and will be the ones that will support the PS3 in the early months IMO. Now, once the price drops (assuming it does) then it'll be the quality of the games that determine if people who passed at the higher price are willing to get one.

[SirFozzie]

Remember, this is just one side of the console war. Japan, the Xbox360 seems to have ZERO penetration. Sony will live and die with how it goes there

[Bee]

Originally Posted by Mizzou B-ball fan

Just to be clear, kids are not the ones buying these systems for the most part. The average gamer age right now is 31. 4 in 10 adults play video games on a regular basis. There are kids that do play games, but for the most part, those kids are going to be playing the systems that their parents bought for the parent's use, not the kid's use.

There will be people who decide to buy other systems like Wii for their kids, but they wouldn't have bought PS3 if it would have come out at $400 either.

That's true as well. I think older games may flinch at the price but I've seen plenty of older gamers drop $500 on a video card...

[Samdari]

Originally Posted by Bee

there are tons of people out there that just buy what Little Jimmy wants.

I actually don't think that's true if "what Jimmy wants" is $1500. That's what the typical family spends total.

[General Mike]

Originally Posted by Samdari

I actually don't think that's true if "what Jimmy wants" is $1500. That's what the typical family spends total.

You're still talking about less than 1% of the population buying the initial offering of PS3s if the 2 million units in the US figure is correct.

[Bee]

Originally Posted by General Mike

You're still talking about less than 1% of the population buying the initial offering of PS3s if the 2 million units in the US figure is correct.

Exactly, and we've already seen there's a lot of people out there willing to spend ths kind of money in the past. While I won't be one of the people buying a PS3 on release, I also don't expect Sony to notice my absence...

[oykib]

Originally Posted by SirFozzie

Remember, this is just one side of the console war. Japan, the Xbox360 seems to have ZERO penetration. Sony will live and die with how it goes there

I totally agree with this point. There's never been a shortage of these things here. You've been able to just walk up and get tham at any shop.

No Japanese market penetration means that there will be a dearth of RPGs, strategy games, racin games and fighting games. It also means that you can't count on suprise hits from the 360. Almost all their blockbusters will be the expected titles from the big North American or European publishers.

[TroyF]

The who buys what system thing is really not a concern.

Take out the hardcore gamers who will get both systems no matter what. Take out the PS fanboys (that's not an insult there, some people love their PS2, hate MS, and will buy whatever Sony throws at them). With just that, they have enough to see some units.

Those aren't the groups who determine who wins the console wars. That is just the base group. They may be powerful and they may be strong, but they aren't going to win you the war.

Sony is banking on the Blu-Ray giving them a one up on MS and that many people will purchase the PS3 for that. I think they are off base.

Sony lost me as an opening day purchase with this price point. Eagles27 as well. Speaking for myself, I was in the group that would purchase any new console without a seconds doubt or hesitation. I'm a member they could have counted on for their core group. Now I'm gone.

Now, maybe Eagles and I are the exceptions. Maybe Sony sells out for months and months and months. Maybe they hold their market share.

I see none of it happening. I think they are making a big mistake in thinking Blu-Ray will be a deciding factor. I think people sitting on the fence will choose the 360 or the Wii over the PS3 75-80% of the time. I even think that we may see spike in 360 sales short term because of this.

People who were holding off and waiting are likely to look at the price point and say "uh uh, no way" and head on over to Best Buy to grab a new 360 system.

Time will tell if I'm correct.

[ISiddiqui]

Originally Posted by TroyF

People who were holding off and waiting are likely to look at the price point and say "uh uh, no way" and head on over to Best Buy to grab a new 360 system.

*raises hand*

I did think X360 would be cheaper, but not$200-$300 cheaper. I don't make all that much money, so I can't justify buying a PS3 at that much greater of a price (and I don't need Blu-Ray either).

[spleen1015]

The price doesn't matter. They're still going to be a strong force in the market and they won't notice those who decide not to buy because of that price. Right now, I'm trying to figure if I will get one a launch not because of the price, but because I don't know if I am willing to put forth the effort to do it.

I went into an EB 2 Sundays ago and got added to their PS3 Pre-Order call list. I am 133 on their list, so 132 people that go to that EB will know that they are pre-selling them before I will. They're only going to get ~20 consoles on launch day. So, my chances of being one of those is pretty slim, I think. I could call them every day to ask, but that's not worth the effort to me right now.

Now the Wii? I am 6th on the call list.

[Bee]

Originally Posted by TroyF

The who buys what system thing is really not a concern.

Take out the hardcore gamers who will get both systems no matter what. Take out the PS fanboys (that's not an insult there, some people love their PS2, hate MS, and will buy whatever Sony throws at them). With just that, they have enough to see some units.

Those aren't the groups who determine who wins the console wars. That is just the base group. They may be powerful and they may be strong, but they aren't going to win you the war.

Sony is banking on the Blu-Ray giving them a one up on MS and that many people will purchase the PS3 for that. I think they are off base.

Sony lost me as an opening day purchase with this price point. Eagles27 as well. Speaking for myself, I was in the group that would purchase any new console without a seconds doubt or hesitation. I'm a member they could have counted on for their core group. Now I'm gone.

Now, maybe Eagles and I are the exceptions. Maybe Sony sells out for months and months and months. Maybe they hold their market share.

I see none of it happening. I think they are making a big mistake in thinking Blu-Ray will be a deciding factor. I think people sitting on the fence will choose the 360 or the Wii over the PS3 75-80% of the time. I even think that we may see spike in 360 sales short term because of this.

People who were holding off and waiting are likely to look at the price point and say "uh uh, no way" and head on over to Best Buy to grab a new 360 system.

Time will tell if I'm correct.

I agree that people like you (and most of us here) that have good knowledge of the market and feel the price is too high will pass on the initial release, I just don't think it's a large enough segment of the worldwide population for Sony to even notice. I also think most of us who pass initially will buy one once the price drops if there are high quality games available. Of course, like you said time will tell which way it goes.

[sabotai]

Originally Posted by Mizzou B-ball fan

Agreed. Thousands of Xbox 360 were flying off e-Bay for a 600-700 premium. In the end, if PS3 has some good launch games, it will sell just fine.

Thousands? I'm sure Sony isn't worried about selling thousands of PS3's, they're worried about selling millions of them.

Not to mention that the XBox 360 was selling like that when it was the only game in town. That won't be true for the PS3. I have no doubt Sony will sell a 1-2 million PS3s. How many consoles sell in the first few months doesn't really matter all that much. (Even the Dreamcast sold well in it's first few months, and we all know what happened with that console) The success/failure of a console is determined by how well it continues to sell after the initial surge. When all of the PS3 nuts have their PS3s, and all of the XBox nuts have their XBox 360s, that's when the console war really begins.

If Sony doesn't bring their price down quick enough, a year or two from now, the average gamer who just wants to play the next-gen Madden he or she has been hearing about will pick up the cheaper console when they see the game looks exactly the same on both. And Microsoft will already have a $200 advantage on Sony when the PS3 launches.

[Gary Gorski]

I'm in the group that the price is going to drive me away from it. I don't buy a ton of games or spend a lot of time playing the console but I've had both PS1 and PS2 and never even thought about the XBox. I didn't even bother to pay any attention to what is going on with the 360 because I was getting the PS3. But at $600 - wow that is just too steep for me. I don't need a Blu-Ray player and I don't even have a HDTV yet. It doesn't sound like there is going to be much difference between the games that I would play anyways which is mainly sports games so right now I'm leaning towards looking for the MS price drop and going with the 360.

The only good thing about the pricing is that I can tell my wife what a deal the 360 is

[Bee]

Originally Posted by sabotai

The success/failure of a console is determined by how well it continues to sell after the initial surge. When all of the PS3 nuts have their PS3s, and all of the XBox nuts have their XBox 360s, that's when the console war really begins.

This is very true and I think it's far enough away that we really don't know what kind of price difference there's going to be between the various consoles or the impact of the Blu-Ray technology of the PS3 or the amount of content on Xbox Live, etc.

BTW, you forgot to include the Wii nuts.

[ISiddiqui]

I think a lot of people are severely underestimating the effect of such a higher price. Saying that a few people won't buy them so Sony won't notice is, IMO, sticking your head in the sand. The higher price is going to HURT Sony unless they quickly bring it down to around X360 levels. You have to appeal to the casual gamer, not the hardcore ones. Past console wars will show that the hardcore games will buy their company's console and then the various companies fight over those who aren't attached to one or the other.

Similar graphics + a far lower price is really going to elevate Microsoft in this round of the console wars. And remember, the initial price can't simply be seen in isolation. It is the starting off point... so Sony isn't going to say, ok, we sold to the hardcore fans, now we drop $200. Ain't going to happen that way. If anything they'll go down a $100 in a year, by which point I think the X360 has the dominant market share in the US (at least) by virtue of its lower price and 2nd, 3rd tier of games.

Perhaps Sony is banking on Blu-ray winning the next gen DVD wars, which may help them (but most people want stand alone DVD players, since they feel those do a far better job than one integrated with a console/PC), but if HD-DVD wins out, Sony is screwed even further with the PS3.

[dixieflatline]

Originally Posted by SirFozzie

Remember, this is just one side of the console war. Japan, the Xbox360 seems to have ZERO penetration. Sony will live and die with how it goes there

I completely agree that the PS3 will do much better in Japan than the xbox but Sony does have to worry about Nintendo there who is certainly going to eat up a good chunk of that market. Check out last weeks Japan sales:

Software - this week [total]
PS2 Winning Eleven 10 - 460,549 [NEW]
NDS Tetris DS - 218,099 [NEW]
NDS Brain Training 2 - 94,231 [2,051,864]
NDS Brain Training - 74,783 [2,052,782]
NDS Animal Crossing: Wild World - 56,860 [2,561,916]
PS2 Dragon Quest Shonen Yangus - 54,456 [181,958]
NDS English Training - 52,258 [938,729]
GBA Mother 3 - 50,923 [256,837]
NDS Naruto 4 - 38,236 [NEW]
NDS Pokemon Ranger 36,777 [427,418]

Hardware
DSL - 225,835 [1,222,381]
NDS - 42,695 [6,478,092]
PSP - 40,884 [3,365,889]
PS2 - 29,837 [22,266,971]
GBASP - 8,225 [15,617,506]
GBM - 5,034 [497,108]
X360 - 2,845 [114,391]
GCN - 1,126 [4,099,509]
GBA - 69 [??]
XBX - 29 [474,409]

The PS2 is still killing the Xbox360 in sales and the PSP is doing ok but Nintendo is kicking some butt for now. PSP sales this week are close to the DS but it isn't like they are dominating. Certainly when the PS3 comes out that will help but Sony does have competition in Japan.

[Deattribution]

Actually I think people who believe they're not going to sell are overreacting, this is a completely different age - people bought 5-6 Xbox360's and put them all on ebay, they create a market even if there isn't one because there are only so many ways you can get one and everyone is trying to make a quick buck.

If the Xbox360 can sell almost 5 million units without really any system defining games, and no Japan market, I doubt the PS3 is going to have any trouble hitting the 3-4 mark twice as fast when you consider the kind of support it will get in Japan and other foreign markets alone.

Hell, when ATI released their X800 series video cards about two years ago they were all in the $500-599 range, and they're just a video card only - they were backordered for months. People always like to have the latest and greatest toy, that's where alot of the Xbox360 purchases came from for 2000 dollar packages with games that were mediocre and still nothing to justify a purchase (IMO).

Again, anyone not buying one is just freeing up a space for someone else to buy one.

[dervack]

Originally Posted by General Mike

You're still talking about less than 1% of the population buying the initial offering of PS3s if the 2 million units in the US figure is correct.

It's 2 million for launch between US and Japan, I believe.

[Kodos]

Yep. I went from a sure buy as early as possible on the PS3 to probably waiting for the 360 price drop and then waiting for PS3 to reach around $400.

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

I really don't disagree with anyone that gives reasons as to why they won't be buying PS3's. They all have their own very good reasons. With that said, there are still a ton of people that will buy the system at any price point. From what I've heard, pre-sales of PS3's currently at most retailers are roughly 1/3 above what they had on the launch date for Xbox 360. It really doesn't matter whether people are buying them for personal use or resale. It all counts the same towards total sales count.

[sabotai]

Originally Posted by Bee

BTW, you forgot to include the Wii nuts.

I thought we were talking about a console WAR, Bee. If you want to talk about the Canada of consoles, we can.

[Blade6119]

Originally Posted by Mizzou B-ball fan

I really don't disagree with anyone that gives reasons as to why they won't be buying PS3's. They all have their own very good reasons. With that said, there are still a ton of people that will buy the system at any price point. From what I've heard, pre-sales of PS3's currently at most retailers are roughly 1/3 above what they had on the launch date for Xbox 360. It really doesn't matter whether people are buying them for personal use or resale. It all counts the same towards total sales count.

I didnt buy a 360 and still plan on getting a PS3, whether near launch or likely once a price drop comes...i think a lot depends on the lauch titles and what kind of reviews im hearing...it may be matter or circumstance and how well it does, as like thr 36o if their is no game to make me want the system then i wont be getting the system

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Speaking of pre-sales, does anyone have any experiences from the Xbox 360 release as to which retailers, online or local, seemed to get the best supply of systems and fill the most pre-sale orders the quickest? I know there were some retailers who didn't get some of the orders that were placed a couple of months before release filled until a few months after the 360 release.

[Bee]

Originally Posted by sabotai

I thought we were talking about a console WAR, Bee. If you want to talk about the Canada of consoles, we can.

I had no interest in the Revolution, then when they changed the name I thought they were idiots. Now I've pretty much decided to buy a Wii if for no other reason than all the stupid jokes I can get out of it.

[sabotai]

Just made my statement on what I thought about Sony's initial price of the PS3.

I'm now an owner of an XBox 360.

[SirFozzie]

Originally Posted by Bee

I had no interest in the Revolution, then when they changed the name I thought they were idiots. Now I've pretty much decided to buy a Wii if for no other reason than all the stupid jokes I can get out of it.

buy two, so then you can show folks your Wii-Wii

Yeah.

I know.

Wrong.

But still had to be done.

[ISiddiqui]

Originally Posted by sabotai

Just made my statement on what I thought about Sony's initial price of the PS3.

I'm now an owner of an XBox 360.

And I don't think you'll be the only one who does that based on the price point.

[mtolson]

Do any of you think Sony is looking at supply and demand based on that happened when the PS2 and XBox 360 both came out. The demand was so high people were snapping them up and reselling them on Ebay for double the price easily. Sony stands to gain a lot more by selling it at a price point which will greatly limit the price a reseller can sell on Ebay for.

[ISiddiqui]

Originally Posted by mtolson

Do any of you think Sony is looking at supply and demand based on that happened when the PS2 and XBox 360 both came out. The demand was so high people were snapping them up and reselling them on Ebay for double the price easily. Sony stands to gain a lot more by selling it at a price point which will greatly limit the price a reseller can sell on Ebay for.

Problem is that the opening price restricts how far you can drop the price later without pissing off your fan base. You can't drop the price $200 after 4 months, say. Dropping it $100 after a year would probably be ok because the original purchasers think they got value that exceed the price drop.

[sterlingice]

Originally Posted by dixieflatline

The PS2 is still killing the Xbox360 in sales and the PSP is doing ok but Nintendo is kicking some butt for now. PSP sales this week are close to the DS but it isn't like they are dominating. Certainly when the PS3 comes out that will help but Sony does have competition in Japan.

Just wanted to point to those insane DS numbers from last week: over 250K if you combine the DS and the DS Lite (220K!). Now that's just pretty and there's no signs of it slowing down- they're just now starting to be able to keep a few on hand before they fly off shelves in a day or so.

Although they didn't have the magical 10,000:1 ratio they had the last two weeks with the original Xbox unless you add in the DS sales. Someone had a post at a gaming forum about how if you bought an Xbox 2 weeks ago, that made you somewhat of a minor celebrity as only 14 sold in the entire country

SI

[SirFozzie]

ouch: Look at Microsoft teaming up with Nintendo to poke fun at the PS3 price

http://today.reuters.com/news/NewsAr...-MICROSOFT.xml

[Eaglesfan27]

Very smart comments.

[stevew]

So when is the Wii SKU coming out, and how much does it cost? I want to pre-order one.

Man, that Red Steel trailer looks sweet.

hxxp://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-5481335368476915030&q=wii

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Originally Posted by SirFozzie

ouch: Look at Microsoft teaming up with Nintendo to poke fun at the PS3 price

http://today.reuters.com/news/NewsAr...-MICROSOFT.xml

Definitely a good idea for Nintendo to use this type of a strategy to try to get more switchovers in the Japanese market from Sony to Nintendo. MS is not a competitor in Japan although they do have a very small piece of the market.

I'm not sure where Microsoft is coming from at this point. Sony has a large advantage over them in current-gen systems. As far as next gen, Microsoft was right to release early, but due to the lack of many 'system selling' titles, they haven't really taken advantage of the early start. If PS3 has similar problems with their early titles, they MS does have an advantage. But at this point, MS probably needs to look in the mirror and quit worrying about other consoles. If they would have put out better titles up to this point, they would most likely be in a position to dominate the market after the E3 developments. Instead, they will be lucky to increase their presence in the US market to 30%. Probably not what they had in mind I would guess given their head start. It certainly is a increase in market share, but will still most likely allow Sony to maintain at least a 50% share in the US market.

[spleen1015]

I don't care who the #1 console is on the market. I just want to see good games. I'm stupid enough to buy 3 systems just for the games.

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Originally Posted by spleen1015

I don't care who the #1 console is on the market. I just want to see good games. I'm stupid enough to buy 3 systems just for the games.

Exactly my point. Microsoft has really squandered this one year advantage that they gave themselves. The release games and current games are under par for what was promised for this system out of the gates. Good games sell the system and Microsoft has now allowed both Wii and PS3 to get a shot at holding some of the market share that they should have taken away already.

You don't want to win an economic/marketing battle by pointing out weaknesses in competing products unless your selling something like paper towels. Rather, you want to show why your product is the best one available.

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Also, in regards to marketing, Nintendo should take full advantage of the situation and market it system as a family/kids system at a low price point. Sony has put its price point at a position to allow someone to develop a low cost system (like Wii) as an alternative. If Wii makes sure to stick with its roots with games based on franchises like Mario, Donkey Kong, Zelda, etc., it would put Microsoft in an extreme bind. Microsoft would then be too expensive as a low-cost alternative, losing customers to Nintendo. MS would also be stuck in a position where it is working with older technology to the point where the tech geeks and adult gamers would go with the better technology. Obviously, Sony needs to get some excellent games to show that technology off, but if they do, MS is in quite a pickle being neither a tech savvy or low cost alternative.

[Raiders Army]

The problem with Sony is that they're banking on the Blu-Ray too hard. I hardly believe that DVD is obsolete. What advantages does Blu-Ray have over DVD other that more memory size and HDTV?

To counter both, HDTV is something that is not widespread. I don't see it being widespread until another 3-5 years. More memory should produce better games, but I doubt we'll see that 3-5 years from now.

Microsoft is supposedly coming out with a HD-DVD drive that connects via USB. They also have huge issues as well, like copy-protection, etc.

I just don't think most people are going to buy it for Blu-Ray.

[dixieflatline]

Originally Posted by Raiders Army

What advantages does Blu-Ray have over DVD other that more memory size and HDTV?
I just don't think most people are going to buy it for Blu-Ray.

I agree that many people won't buy it for the blu-ray drive but once it is in the house maybe you will buy a blu-ray movie when it comes out. At least that is how I understand their current plan. The memory size is a large increase, probably not needed now, but something that could be useful for games in a year from now. And don't discount the HDTV thing. The people that have HDTVs are probably much more likely to buy a game system. And when it comes to buying a game system maybe the PS3 makes sense.

[Deattribution]

Originally Posted by Raiders Army

The problem with Sony is that they're banking on the Blu-Ray too hard. I hardly believe that DVD is obsolete. What advantages does Blu-Ray have over DVD other that more memory size and HDTV?

To counter both, HDTV is something that is not widespread. I don't see it being widespread until another 3-5 years. More memory should produce better games, but I doubt we'll see that 3-5 years from now.

Microsoft is supposedly coming out with a HD-DVD drive that connects via USB. They also have huge issues as well, like copy-protection, etc.

I just don't think most people are going to buy it for Blu-Ray.

It's not just 'more memory' (it's actually disc space but I get your point) but it's essentially a harddrive on a disc. You are talking about jumping from single layer dvd at 4 gb, dual layer at 9gb to blu-ray at 50gb. That's the size of alot of peoples harddrives on their computers.

It's also not the only thing theyre banking on, really they are banking on foreign market and branding more than anything. Playstation is the stronger brand then say Xbox, evident by the fact that 102 million PS2 units have been sold, not mentioning how many PS1 systems.

But as stated earlier, it comes down to software, and right now Xbox360 doesn't have a sizable lead. PS3 could come out with say a new Final Fantasy at launch and have one more system defining game than Xbox 360 has in 8 months of release.

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Originally Posted by Deattribution

It's also not the only thing theyre banking on, really they are banking on foreign market and branding more than anything. Playstation is the stronger brand then say Xbox, evident by the fact that 102 million PS2 units have been sold, not mentioning how many PS1 systems.

Another announcement that I don't think has been brought up in this discussion is the fact that the PS3's in Japan and the PS3's in the U.S. will no longer be incompatible. Sony announced that the U.S. and the Japanese PS3's will both be able to play the same games. So U.S. gamers can play Japanese PS3 games and vice versa. While that doesn't affect the majority of us, there is a large group of gamers that used mod chips in the old system to play foreign games or like anime-themed games. This would seem to be a big selling point for that niche of gamers.

[ISiddiqui]

Originally Posted by Mizzou B-ball fan

PS3 could come out with say a new Final Fantasy at launch and have one more system defining game than Xbox 360 has in 8 months of release.

Are you the only person in America who hasn't heard of Oblivion?

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Originally Posted by ISiddiqui

Are you the only person in America who hasn't heard of Oblivion?

Obviously a very good game, but probably shouldn't be considered a 'system seller'. It's also out on PC and my understanding is that it's selling quite well on the PC. In the case of Oblivion, many of those RPG gamers already have a system that will run that game.

To some extent, this is a perfect example of why the portability between the PC and the Xbox that Microsoft uses isn't necessarily a good thing. It makes it easier on developers, but people aren't going to run out and get a system that runs many of the exact same games on the PC with just as good graphics.

[Deattribution]

Originally Posted by ISiddiqui

Are you the only person in America who hasn't heard of Oblivion?

I feel bad for anyone who bought the Xbox 360 version of Oblivion, the user-created mods make the experience a 1000 times better, not to mention more balanced. It is in no way a system defining game.

I understand the people who don't have the systems to run the game on their pc, but they are really missing out.

[ISiddiqui]

Oblivions sales have mostly come on the X360. It may be selling well on the PC, but the numbers are far greater on the X360.

[Deattribution]

dola

And that's just not to make a knock on the 360 - it was the same exact case with Morrowind - a great game but so much better on the PC because of the community.

[Deattribution]

Originally Posted by ISiddiqui

Oblivions sales have mostly come on the X360. It may be selling well on the PC, but the numbers are far greater on the X360.

Still anyone with a pc to run the game well would have no reason to buy the 360 version vs the PC version.

[dawgfan]

Originally Posted by Deattribution

It's not just 'more memory' (it's actually disc space but I get your point) but it's essentially a harddrive on a disc. You are talking about jumping from single layer dvd at 4 gb, dual layer at 9gb to blu-ray at 50gb. That's the size of alot of peoples harddrives on their computers.

It should be noted that very few games butt up against the disk space limits of the DVD format. Unless your game has a shit-ton of pre-rendered scenes or other video, and/or a ton of audio content, most games fit comfortably on a DVD. Actual in-game content - models, textures, animation, code - is relatively small from a disk space point of view.

As for regarding the Blu-Ray as a hard drive on a disk - maybe access speeds have improved with Blu-Ray over the current DVD format, but right now game companies can't really use content off the DVD in the same way they can content off the hard drive - the access speeds are faster off the hard drive, so the preference is to load streaming content off the disk and on to the hard drive, then stream content as needed from the hard drive. Streaming directly off the DVD and into RAM is not as fast - at least, that's the impression I've always been given by our programmers.

But as stated earlier, it comes down to software, and right now Xbox360 doesn't have a sizable lead. PS3 could come out with say a new Final Fantasy at launch and have one more system defining game than Xbox 360 has in 8 months of release.

I would agree that MS has not fully taken advantage of their head start by not having a "system seller" kind of game like Halo was for the Xbox. That said, they still have time to rectify that mistake. With the announcement of the price point on the PS3, a lot of people that were waiting for it are now going to reconsider and start looking more closely at the 360. If MS fails to launch a few kick-ass games in the next few months, then I would agree they will have pissed-away most of their early launch advantage.

If it were me, I would've increased Bungie's head count by at least 50% and started simultaneous development cycles to ensure that even while Halo 2 was in later stages of development that Halo 3 development for the 360 was already underway and would be ready at or shortly after the launch of the 360. I know MS liked the idea of having Halo 3 as their ace-in-the-hole to counter the hype of the PS3 launching a year later, but I think they would've been better served to have Halo 3 ready sooner to really push early sales of the 360.

All that said, 360's have been selling about as fast as they arrive on shelves, so the lack of a "system-seller" game hasn't yet hurt them. They'd better hope though that the slate of games coming out soon keep the demand high.

[Mizzou B-ball fan]

Originally Posted by ISiddiqui

Oblivions sales have mostly come on the X360. It may be selling well on the PC, but the numbers are far greater on the X360.

Once again, agree that it has sold more on X360, but it hasn't been a system seller by any means. Haven't seen official numbers in the breakdown because Microsoft tends to send out their press releases with the 'Oblivion has sold 1.7 million units on the PC and X360 combined' type statements rather than just saying they sold 1 million for X360 and 700,000 for the PC. I guess they figure the bigger number sounds better.

[ISiddiqui]

Well, as pointed out, it isn't like the X360 has been able to stay on the shelves until relatively recently (even then its mostly Core machines). Even without a system seller, they are doing very well. I'm sure they are disappointed that Halo 3 slipped to 2007, because it would have been quite a shot if released in November. Though Gears of War and other very impressive games are coming out for X360 soon. I think Gears of War can be the 'system seller' game you are looking for.