Poll: Andrew Luck

[Logan]

Originally Posted by Swaggs

I can definitely see that being used against him next year. The whole "Does he love the game?" argument.

This argument makes it seem like he is postponing the NFL for a year to go spend a semester abroad in Australia. All he will do is play football, refine his skills, and get more experience as a QB and as a leader. People bring up that he will be losing offensive linemen...what if the byproduct of that is he experiences less time in the pocket to make his progressions/throws which will better prepare him for the typical "run for your life" early career that many top QBs have to go through because they've been drafted by a bad team?

As has been pointed out...someone wondering "does he love football" certainly didn't affect Peyton Manning and it didn't affect Bradford. But if by some retarded reason it does and some teams pass on Luck and he falls in the draft, he may find himself in a much better situation with a better team/coaching staff than what he is facing if he played it safe. Maybe it's a short term drop in money but it could lead to much more money down the road in future contracts. Give a listen to Trent Dilfer with Bill Simmons as he discusses how important the situation is that a young QB enters into, and how that can be the difference between success and failure.

[RedKingGold]

Originally Posted by Logan

This argument makes it seem like he is postponing the NFL for a year to go spend a semester abroad in Australia. All he will do is play football, refine his skills, and get more experience as a QB and as a leader. People bring up that he will be losing offensive linemen...what if the byproduct of that is he experiences less time in the pocket to make his progressions/throws which will better prepare him for the typical "run for your life" early career that many top QBs have to go through because they've been drafted by a bad team?

It could also cause Luck to develop bad habits (happy feet, irregular throwing motion) that would diminish his pro prospects.

[molson]

OK, since we all are apparently in a place where we can know the factors that were important to him, what's the actual pro/con list of staying?

Pro:
-loves the college life, which he'll never get to live again
-loyalty to teammates
-another year of development (strong correlation between college starts and nfl success)
-Chance that there's no NFL football in 2011, or that there's a shortened season.
-Avoid, for now, a bad career situation in Carolina (or the necessity to holdout/force a trade)

CONS
-Potentially loses 1 year of NFL salary (if no lockout)
-Potentially loses 1 year of NFL service time to free agency/pension (if no lockout, unless the eventual CBA grants that year of service time)
-Puts off, by one season, the rookie/young qb struggles that you need to get through to be an elite NFL QB (and loses that year of development under NFL coaching)
-Serious risk of losing multi-millions by hurting his draft status.
-Risk of serious college injury that could hamper or end his NFL career
-His college team is unlikely to be as good next year as it was this year

There's a lot of unknown variables there. It must have been a really tough decision. Quite a bit of risk either way. Staying in school could cost him money, but I don't think it would hurt his career (it just means he'd be less of a bust because he'd be drafted lower - would Matt Leinart be a better NFL QB today if he left earlier - that doesn't make much sense. If Locker came out last year, he probably would have just been a huge bust - at least now expectations will be in check and he's had another year to try to improve) Going too soon could ruin his career if he's not ready and/or he's drafted into a bad situation (which costs money in the long run).

[Logan]

Originally Posted by RedKingGold

It could also cause Luck to develop bad habits (happy feet, irregular throwing motion) that would diminish his pro prospects.

That's true...and if he faced that in the pros, he would be likely to develop that there too. Yeah he would be doing so with his contract already in place, but then we're back to the money issue.

[Ksyrup]

Absent some coke-fueled binge or allegations of rape or something, the guy was guaranteed by Carolina to be the 1st pick in the draft. He can't improve on 1.1. Coming back had to do with something other than money and improving his draft stock. Isn't that obvious?

[wade moore]

Originally Posted by molson

OK, since we all are apparently in a place where we can know the factors that were important to him, what's the actual pro/con list of staying?

Pro:
-loves the college life, which he'll never get to live again
-loyalty to teammates
-another year of development (strong correlation between college starts and nfl success)
-Chance that there's no NFL football in 2011, or that there's a shortened season.
-Avoid, for now, a bad career situation in Carolina (or the necessity to holdout/force a trade)

CONS
-Potentially loses 1 year of NFL salary (if no lockout)
-Potentially loses 1 year of NFL service time to free agency/pension (if no lockout, unless the eventual CBA grants that year of service time)
-Puts off, by one season, the rookie/young qb struggles that you need to get through to be an elite NFL QB (and loses that year of development under NFL coaching)
-Serious risk of losing multi-millions by hurting his draft status.
-Risk of serious college injury that could hamper or end his NFL career
-His college team is unlikely to be as good next year as it was this year

There's a lot of unknown variables there. It must have been a really tough decision. Quite a bit of risk either way. Staying in school could cost him money, but I don't think it would hurt his career (it just means he'd be less of a bust because he'd be drafted lower - would Matt Leinart be a better NFL QB today if he left earlier - that doesn't make much sense. If Locker came out last year, he probably would have just been a huge bust - at least now expectations will be in check and he's had another year to try to improve) Going too soon could ruin his career if he's not ready and/or he's drafted into a bad situation (which costs money in the long run).

I don't think you can list

"-Avoid, for now, a bad career situation in Carolina (or the necessity to holdout/force a trade)"

as a pro without listing:

-Potentially end up in a worse career situation than Carolina

as a con.

Whatever you guys want to say about Carolina, I don't see how it's worse than say OAK, WAS, or CIN as organizations.

[molson]

Originally Posted by wade moore

I don't think you can list

"-Avoid, for now, a bad career situation in Carolina (or the necessity to holdout/force a trade)"

as a pro without listing:

-Potentially end up in a worse career situation than Carolina

as a con.

Whatever you guys want to say about Carolina, I don't see how it's worse than say OAK, WAS, or CIN as organizations.

Who knows what the top 5 picks are next year? Could be Miami, the Vikings, the Titans, the Broncos, which would be better spots. The only thing worse than Carolina would be Cincinnati. Any team drafting him will probably have been bad the year before, but some franchises are just worse than others, regardless of year-to-year success.

[Danny]

Washington is a better situation. I'd say Oakland is as well, but Oakland won't be ending up with the #1 pick anyway.

[wade moore]

Originally Posted by molson

Who knows what the top 5 picks are next year? Could be Miami, the Vikings, the Titans, the Broncos, which would be better spots. The only thing worse than Carolina would be Cincinnati.

I guess I have a different take on Carolina than others, which may be part of the disconnect here.

Carolina has a solid running game, decent receivers, doesn't have a history of being awful.

OAK, CIN, BUF, WAS at a minimum seem like a worse situation to me. Especially if you factor in that if he goes to CAR I suspect he gets Harbaugh or Cowher as coach, rather than whatever dregs you get at the other possibilities.

[Danny]

Harbaugh and Cowher are not going to Carolina. Also, Caroline has crap for receivers. Steve Smith is their only option and he's getting old and is injury prone.

[molson]

Originally Posted by wade moore

Especially if you factor in that if he goes to CAR I suspect he gets Harbaugh or Cowher as coach, rather than whatever dregs you get at the other possibilities.

Agreed that he'd probably want to go somewhere that's starting new with an elite coach, but the elite coaches, as far as I've read, have no interest in Carolina. Next season, any of that list of other possible bad teams in the top 5 could be starting new with Gruden, Harbaugh, Cowher, or whoever. Maybe Luck makes the Carolina job a little more attractive, but its telling that Harbaugh doesn't even seem to be even considering that job.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by wade moore

I guess I have a different take on Carolina than others, which may be part of the disconnect here.

Carolina has a solid running game, decent receivers, doesn't have a history of being awful.

IIRC they have 28 unsigned players and the owner has come out and stated he won't sign any FAs until the labor situation is resolved. So if the CBA isn't signed until 3 weeks before the regular season that is a lot of scrambling to have to do.

[Ronnie Dobbs2]

Those Carolina RBs are getting old fast.

edit: which is crazy, but you really do need to get the QB in before the RB in today's game.

[NorvTurnerOverdrive]

i'm going to speculate wildly and say that philly is going to trade vick to car(if the cba gets done)

luck's gone, vick mentioned going there last offseason and barring injury or a sb win philly will cash out on vick while his value is high.

[wade moore]

Originally Posted by Danny

Harbaugh and Cowher are not going to Carolina. Also, Caroline has crap for receivers. Steve Smith is their only option and he's getting old and is injury prone.

Originally Posted by molson

Agreed that he'd probably want to go somewhere that's starting new with an elite coach, but the elite coaches, as far as I've read, have no interest in Carolina. Next season, any of that list of other possible bad teams in the top 5 could be starting new with Gruden, Harbaugh, Cowher, or whoever. Maybe Luck makes the Carolina job a little more attractive, but its telling that Harbaugh doesn't even seem to be even considering that job.

Originally Posted by Lathum

IIRC they have 28 unsigned players and the owner has come out and stated he won't sign any FAs until the labor situation is resolved. So if the CBA isn't signed until 3 weeks before the regular season that is a lot of scrambling to have to do.

Again, maybe I'm assuming too much, but I have to think Carolina+Luck brings in Cowher or Harbaugh and the owner starts shifting his stance.

Idano, again, maybe I'm naive here but I don't see CAR as this blackhole that some here do.

[molson]

Originally Posted by wade moore

Again, maybe I'm assuming too much, but I have to think Carolina+Luck brings in Cowher or Harbaugh and the owner starts shifting his stance.

Idano, again, maybe I'm naive here but I don't see CAR as this blackhole that some here do.

Luck is the one that would know for sure how much appeal that situation would have for elite coaches (Harbaugh could share that insight with him). And Luck's decided to stay. That might not be a coincidence.

Maybe Luck's decision would be different if Harbaugh was interested at all in that job. There's so much we don't know.

[wade moore]

Originally Posted by molson

Luck is the one that would know for sure how much appeal that situation would have for elite coaches (Harbaugh could share that insight with him). And Luck's decided to stay. That might not be a coincidence.

Maybe Luck's decision would be different if Harbaugh was interested at all in that job. There's so much we don't know.

See, again, I take egg over chicken, or something.

I think Harbaugh hinged on Luck, not the other way around.

[Radii]

So far, Panthers looking at defensive guys - NFC South Blog - ESPN

Carolina seems to be looking at current defensive coordinators entirely at this point.

Those Carolina RBs are getting old fast.

DeAngelo Williams is 27, Jonathan Stewart is 23. Mike Goodson if you believe him to be a legit candidate to get a bunch of carries, is 23. RB age is not a problem. Injury concerns might be of course though.

[Swaggs]

Oh, I agree. Just tell me that you cannot picture the talking heads on ESPN and NFL network saying it about Andrew Luck during the next season (and prior to the next draft).

Originally Posted by Logan

This argument makes it seem like he is postponing the NFL for a year to go spend a semester abroad in Australia. All he will do is play football, refine his skills, and get more experience as a QB and as a leader. People bring up that he will be losing offensive linemen...what if the byproduct of that is he experiences less time in the pocket to make his progressions/throws which will better prepare him for the typical "run for your life" early career that many top QBs have to go through because they've been drafted by a bad team?

As has been pointed out...someone wondering "does he love football" certainly didn't affect Peyton Manning and it didn't affect Bradford. But if by some retarded reason it does and some teams pass on Luck and he falls in the draft, he may find himself in a much better situation with a better team/coaching staff than what he is facing if he played it safe. Maybe it's a short term drop in money but it could lead to much more money down the road in future contracts. Give a listen to Trent Dilfer with Bill Simmons as he discusses how important the situation is that a young QB enters into, and how that can be the difference between success and failure.

[Ronnie Dobbs2]

Originally Posted by Radii

DeAngelo Williams is 27, Jonathan Stewart is 23. Mike Goodson if you believe him to be a legit candidate to get a bunch of carries, is 23. RB age is not a problem. Injury concerns might be of course though.

Had no idea Stewart was so young, so that defeats my point. Williams doesn't though - by the time Luck would be ready to really achieve he would be on the wrong side of 30.

[molson]

Couldn't it as easily be he loves football so much he's making the only choice that assures he gets to play it next year?

[molson]

The RB Luck is going rely on is whoever his team drafts after his rookie season.

[Sun Tzu]

Originally Posted by Lathum

they have 28 unsigned players

Does anyone else immediately think of FOF every time they read this?

[Ksyrup]

Ha, yep!

[Logan]

Found this article referenced on another board, from Matt Murphy, Packers CEO, detailing the NFL's proposal for the future rookie pay scale. Now this is their starting point, and despite their power position they will still need to move up from this but it gives a sense of the numbers that Luck et al will end up seeing.

Under our proposal, mandatory contract lengths would be five years for first-round players (six years for quarterbacks), four years for second- through seventh-round picks and three years for undrafted rookies (as I was). Players and teams would be able to renegotiate and extend the initial contracts of first-round rookies after year three, and after year two for all other rookies.

Under the proposal, the first pick in the draft would sign a five-year contract and receive a $5.34 million signing bonus and $1.5 million salary his rookie year, even if he does not play a single down. In years two and three, his salary would be set at $1.7 million and $1.9 million, respectively. His fourth- and fifth-year salaries would rise to $2.3 million and $2.9 million for a total package of $15.6 million. (If he is a quarterback, he would be paid $4.3 million in year six.) The first pick would still be paid well, but at a much more reasonable level than under the current system

So for a 1.1 QB, a 6-year deal totaling $19.9 million with $6.8 million guaranteed.

To avoid an NFL lockout, let's stop breaking the bank with rookies

[Ksyrup]

A 3-year deal for undrafted rookies, negotiable after year 2? Fuck that.

Let me see how this works - we find a diamond in the rough, we get millions in cost savings. If the player sucks, we cut him before game 1 of his rookie season and owe him cab fare.

[CU Tiger]

I guess one point that I havent seen discussed is that a career has a definite shelf life (Brett Favre not withstanding) most Qbs only have until 33-34...if he is elite he will be elite so why not start the clock ticking now?

To me this is a dumb move on his part. Under the new CBA there will be no forced trades, drafting teams will own your rights throughout the rookie contract, so if you dream of playing in XYZ....why not get the clock started now. Plus it likely gives you one more season on the back end to amass career records/stats not that it will matter since hee will likely play an entire career in an 18 game regular season.

[Arles]

Looking at those numbers, maybe Luck doesn't want to be saddled with the "test year" of the new CBA. I could see something coming where top 10 salaries increase after a year or so of this system. I mean, going from $60 mil guaranteed to $6 is a huge change.

[Logan]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

A 3-year deal for undrafted rookies, negotiable after year 2? Fuck that.

Let me see how this works - we find a diamond in the rough, we get millions in cost savings. If the player sucks, we cut him before game 1 of his rookie season and owe him cab fare.

What's the system now for UDFAs?

[Ksyrup]

I thought they were mostly just signed to 1-year deals, but I don't know.

[Logan]

Answering my question:

Using LeGarrette Blount as an example since he's the first UDFA I can think of who would actually have significant value...don't know what he made this year, but he's going to make $405k in 2011 and in 2012 would be an exclusive rights FA, which according to wikipedia:

Exclusive-rights free agents are players who have completed fewer than three "accrued seasons" of service whose contracts have expired.[1] An accrued season consists of a player being on a team's active/inactive roster, or reserved-injured or "physically unable to perform" lists for at least six weeks of a season. If the franchise makes a "qualifying offer" (a contract at a salary level based on the player's tenure as predetermined by the collective bargaining agreement between the league and the players' union) the player has no negotiating rights with other clubs and must either sign the tender with their current club or sit out the season

So I'm not sure what the uproar is about. Doesn't seem to be much of a difference.

[Matthean]

Originally Posted by Ronnie Dobbs2

So the minuscule chance that you could be injured should drive this major decision?

Do you fly on planes?

Flying is safer than driving so....

[CU Tiger]

Originally Posted by Matthean

Flying is safer than driving so....

more people survive car wrecks

[Logan]

More quarterbacks survive their last year in college.

[Crapshoot]

Originally Posted by Ksyrup

A 3-year deal for undrafted rookies, negotiable after year 2? Fuck that.

Let me see how this works - we find a diamond in the rough, we get millions in cost savings. If the player sucks, we cut him before game 1 of his rookie season and owe him cab fare.

Of course. Which is why people whining about rookies getting paid too much should recognized that they are still underpaid as compared to a free market.

[Ksyrup]

Originally Posted by Logan

Answering my question:

Using LeGarrette Blount as an example since he's the first UDFA I can think of who would actually have significant value...don't know what he made this year, but he's going to make $405k in 2011 and in 2012 would be an exclusive rights FA, which according to wikipedia:



So I'm not sure what the uproar is about. Doesn't seem to be much of a difference.

Man that sucks. I guess it's been a while since I played FOF...

[lordscarlet]

Originally Posted by CU Tiger

more people survive car wrecks

http://www.newton.dep.anl.gov/askasc...9/gen99845.htm

... According to the latter, each year in the US 1 out of 6800 drivers dies in an auto accident. The rate for
airline passengers is 1 in 1.6 million. ...

[Ksyrup]

Drivers vs. passengers? Isn't that apples to oranges?

[TroyF]

If Luck is as good as advertised, he will never get to test FA.

Let me rephrase that. . . he could test FA, but only after going through the last year of his rookie deal and a year of being the franchise player without any longterm security.

2 years without any security for the type of money he would be making? Ummm. . . no.

Only way a top ten pick QB will ever have to worry about FA rules is if he sucks so bad he can't be the starter but is good enough to hold a clipboard. (Smile and wave to the cameras David Carr)

[CU Tiger]

Originally Posted by CU Tiger

more people survive car wrecks

Originally Posted by lordscarlet

http://www.newton.dep.anl.gov/askasc...9/gen99845.htm

LOL<
I bolded the relevant part for you...

[CU Tiger]

DOLA - My point (even though the original joke was just a tongue in cheek one liner) is that even though it may be statistically "safer" just like the QB situation, if things go wrong the results are MUCH more drastic.

[wade moore]

Originally Posted by Arles

Looking at those numbers, maybe Luck doesn't want to be saddled with the "test year" of the new CBA. I could see something coming where top 10 salaries increase after a year or so of this system. I mean, going from $60 mil guaranteed to $6 is a huge change.

Yeah, wow. I'm all for the rookie scale, but this seems like way too far on the opposite end of extreme. I don't see how the owners get a deal in that's anywhere close to $6mil guaranteed for the 1.1.

[Logan]

It helps when it's being negotiated by people it isn't affecting and who stand to benefit by making this kind of concession.

Like I said, no way will it be that low, but when that is where the owners are starting from, it shows they're looking for blood on that issue.

[Young Drachma]

Andrew Luck will return to Stanford University next year, and it's worth remembering that his decision is based as much on business as it is on the virtues of an education. - ESPN

[miami_fan]

Originally Posted by Dark Cloud

Andrew Luck will return to Stanford University next year, and it's worth remembering that his decision is based as much on business as it is on the virtues of an education. - ESPN

Awww I was enjoying the argument of extremes!

[Denial Of Freedom]

Originally Posted by RedKingGold

Do you know why he was happy to stay in Stanford?

No, and I don't recall ever stating I did. Just that he obviously believes that will make him happier, otherwise why would he do it as no one is forcing him to do either one.

On another note I heard on one of the pre-game shows today that the Panthers owner called him to clarify why he was staying in school. Apparently he stated the fact the Panthers own the first pick had nothing to do with him staying in school.