POTUS 2024 - Harris vs Trump - General Election Discussion

[PilotMan]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

Take it for what it is but Kamala's team is promoting this interview and the Lt Gov in Kentucky said they're ready to take over. Sure sounds like he's the frontrunner and he's been going hard at JD Vance.




He will never be liberal enough for you. He's likely to be the last Dem governor of Kentucky for my lifetime. He can't run anymore, and his power has been neutered by the house and senate. They will surely cede power back once a republican is in charge and then KY will just be back on the crazy train again.



Andy is super popular here, but I don't think that means he helps carry KY. He is moderate enough to understand that there is power in teamwork and cooperation and that even when you lose, you can still win, keep a strong positive attitude, and push for the next thing. He's been great here, and was a trend setter nationally through covid.



I figure if I'm on board and like him, that should be enough for you to say he's far too establishment and like all the other politicians you aren't fond of either.

[Atocep]

MAGA land claiming Kamala Harris isn't black is an odd choice of attack.

[larrymcg421]

PredictIt odds...

Shapiro .32
Beshear .27
Cooper .22
Kelly .15
Buttigieg .07
Whitmer .04
Pritzker .03
Walz .02

[GrantDawg]

They can't stop threatening violence...

Some very dangerous rhetoric here from Ohio State Senator George Lang at JD Vance’s rally:

“I’m afraid if we lose this one, it’s going to take a civil war to save the country.” pic.twitter.com/wZIDx1Yt9J

— Yashar Ali �� (@yashar) July 22, 2024

[Lathum]

I’m only 50% certain Biden is still alive.

[GrantDawg]

Bipartisanship is alive! Both the Chairman and the ranking member of the Committee of Oversight and Accountability signed a letter stating the head of the Secret Service should resign.

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by Lathum

I’m only 50% certain Biden is still alive.

If Biden were dead, that would lock the election down. It would be worth a 3-5% bump in the polls at least. Can you imagine? A state funeral, the image of Harris swearing in, Harris no longer running as a candidate but the incumbent? The last thing they would want to hide is that he is dead.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

The last thing they would want to hide is that he is dead.

That would depend on how he died ... or at least, how confident they were that nothing other than the official version would be revealed before the election.

[Dutch]

Searches for “is Joe Biden Alive” are definitely up. I’m guessing he’s fine (his doctor says he’s doing great, fwiw) and the secrecy is all part of the dramatic flair of what’s happening. It’s like Clooney is directing this episode.

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

That would depend on how he died ... or at least, how confident they were that nothing other than the official version would be revealed before the election.

Like sleeping with porn star? I can't think way he could have died that possibily would be an issue. He is 82. Covid could have easily killed him, or even a simple fall in the shower. It really wouldn't make a difference.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

Like sleeping with porn star? I can't think way he could have died that possibily would be an issue. He is 82. Covid could have easily killed him, or even a simple fall in the shower. It really wouldn't make a difference.

It would if they were pressuring him to quit & he keeled over.

And that's the kinder gentler version of something that wouldn't go over well.

With those folks, much worse is within the realm of possibility (and will be suspected anyway).

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

It would if they were pressuring him to quit & he keeled over.

And that's the kinder gentler version of something that wouldn't go over well.

With those folks, much worse is within the realm of possibility (and will be suspected anyway).

No it wouldn't. They literally have the excuse. He has Covid. An 82 dying of Covid wouldn't cause non-nuts to bat an eye. You have to be steeped in some pretty deep crazy conspiracy stuff to believe something else. The simplest way would be the best way to silence a conspiracy, and at this point the easiest solution has sailed.

[GrantDawg]

This is so the honeymoon period for Harris. The third day story is going to hit hard.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by PilotMan

He will never be liberal enough for you. He's likely to be the last Dem governor of Kentucky for my lifetime. He can't run anymore, and his power has been neutered by the house and senate. They will surely cede power back once a republican is in charge and then KY will just be back on the crazy train again.

Andy is super popular here, but I don't think that means he helps carry KY. He is moderate enough to understand that there is power in teamwork and cooperation and that even when you lose, you can still win, keep a strong positive attitude, and push for the next thing. He's been great here, and was a trend setter nationally through covid.

I figure if I'm on board and like him, that should be enough for you to say he's far too establishment and like all the other politicians you aren't fond of either.

I've said I like Beshear. He is a liberal which I am not, so I don't know how him being more liberal would persuade me. He's not going to flip Kentucky by any means but he will do well in the Rust Belt is my guess. A pretty sharp distinction from Vance who looks down on people in that region.

The fact he actually stands on his principles even in a deep red state makes him better than 99% of Democrats in power right now. Barring some major changes in policy, I'd vote for a Harris/Beshear ticket since there isn't a viable 3rd party candidate.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

No it wouldn't. They literally have the excuse. He has Covid. An 82 dying of Covid wouldn't cause non-nuts to bat an eye. You have to be steeped in some pretty deep crazy conspiracy stuff to believe something else. The simplest way would be the best way to silence a conspiracy, and at this point the easiest solution has sailed.

I'm telling you, if Harris was in the room during that discussion and his heart stopped .. you think you had trouble before? Biden's numbers would look like optimism compared to what would happen.

Hell, what happened to Dorito Dotty today on the Hill would look like a coronation compared to what would happen.

[cartman]

I need to hear Kamala's views on Hannibal Lecter before making a decision

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

I'm telling you, if Harris was in the room during that discussion and his heart stopped .. you think you had trouble before? Biden's numbers would look like optimism compared to what would happen.

Hell, what happened to Dorito Dotty today on the Hill would look like a coronation compared to what would happen.

But we know she wasn't because he was in Delaware and she was not. You know they record every time he or she gets on and off a plane, right? I mean, "if Hillary was in the room....."


Again, they had the opportunity, and all of this would have been a million times easier if he had died. It makes zero sense to cover it up now. Not to mention he has to come out to speak sometime. If he doesn't after saying he has improved, that is what will look bad.

[GrantDawg]

Speaking of which, she is in Delaware now at the campaign headquarters. Does she leave that there, or move it to California? It probably makes sense to leave it. It is close to DC, and all the major NW cities.

[RainMaker]

I wonder if Trump would have picked someone different from Vance if he knew Biden would drop out.

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

I wonder if Trump would have picked someone different from Vance if he knew Biden would drop out.

It has been buzzing around today. It does make you think he probably wishes he had someone more palatable to suburban moms instead of the guy who openly antagonistic to them.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by RainMaker

I wonder if Trump would have picked someone different from Vance if he knew Biden would drop out.

I think he for sure would have. I think it is why Biden waited until after to drop out.

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

Not to mention he has to come out to speak sometime. If he doesn't after saying he has improved, that is what will look bad.

Even when he does it will just be a lizard person in a Joe Biden suit. Everybody knows this

[GrantDawg]

Originally Posted by Lathum

Even when he does it will just be a lizard person in a Joe Biden suit. Everybody knows this

The lizard person just called into the staff meeting that Harris was having. He said he supports her completely and he really needs more mice.

[RainMaker]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

It has been buzzing around today. It does make you think he probably wishes he had someone more palatable to suburban moms instead of the guy who openly antagonistic to them.

Yeah, someone like Stefanik would have made more sense. Even Huckabee-Sanders.

One of the issues with Harris for them is they can't help but be weird about it. It's easy to attack Biden for being old and being in mental decline. Easy to tie inflation and bad foreign policy to him too. All legit attacks that resonate with voters.

But you can already see the attacks on Harris are weird. Saw someone make a big deal that she doesn't have kids. Saw Eastman put out a thing about how she's not eligible and starting up a new birther debate. There's going to be a lot of racist and misogynistic attacks. Plays well to the base but as we've seen, suburbanites hate that shit.

Despite all the talk about policy and positions, I think elections come down to who is less weird about stuff.

[BYU 14]

This is like bad political sitcom writing. Fox and Friends ran a bumper that read "Kamala could be the oldest elected female President"

Ya think?

[JPhillips]

Originally Posted by Atocep

MAGA land claiming Kamala Harris isn't black is an odd choice of attack.

Much like Obama she's both too black and not black enough.

[JPhillips]

dola

Just on time, we're starting the MIGRANT CARAVAN stories.

[Arles]

Originally Posted by GrantDawg

It has been buzzing around today. It does make you think he probably wishes he had someone more palatable to suburban moms instead of the guy who openly antagonistic to them.

Trump has never tried for the female vote. The conservative/christian women are already voting for him and I don't think a VP pick is swaying the rest. He uses the VP strategically to help get a swing state. Trump's campaign has always been to motivate his likely voters and try to get those of his opponent to stay home. He was able to do that vs Hillary and not vs Biden.

We will see how it does with Harris, but I don't think there are a large group of undecided women going "You know, I just wish Trump had a better VP so I could vote for him"

[Brian Swartz]

Yep. In general some people seem to be way over-valuing the importance of VP.

[JPhillips]

The only data we have as to a boost is a small boost in the VP's home state. Otherwise, it hasn't mattered and probably won't matter this year.

[Atocep]

Originally Posted by JPhillips

The only data we have as to a boost is a small boost in the VP's home state. Otherwise, it hasn't mattered and probably won't matter this year.

The sample size for downright terrible VP picks is rather small. Most candidates tend to make very safe picks that sure up support in areas of weakness.

Palin is an example of a really bad VP pick and studies have estimated her costing McCain about 1.5% of the vote.

[GrantDawg]

Everything in a campaign is an accumulative effect. People try to qualify things using polls and such, but there is really no way to exactly measure what action played on the next action played on the next action that allowed the final action to sink in to make a final decision. Maybe the VP decision itself didn't make the difference, but then maybe it is the butterfly effect that makes something else more a positive or a negative than it would have been without it.
2016 was decided by 80,000 votes in three states. He basically lost in 2020 by the same number. With those types of margins of error, even the color of a flier might have made a difference.

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[Mota]

Today I was listening to SiriusXM political news. The Patriot channel (republican) persecution complex happening is next level. Same as my "For You" tab on X. The deep state kidnapped Joe Biden and turned him into a zombie so that Kamala could fake her blackness to try and trick the secret service into assassinating Trump. Wow. It's exhausting.

[jcard]

Originally Posted by Lathum

I’m only 50% certain Biden is still alive.

Reminds me of this all-timer:

https://www.azquotes.com/picture-quo...-115-21-47.jpg

[GrantDawg]

According to AP, Harris already has enough pledged delegates to win the nomination.

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[Brian Swartz]

Incredible.

[Edward64]

Saw this on Reddit and chuckled

Joe is the new Schrödinger’s cat

Joe, you did the right thing. Thank you. If Kamala wins you’ll be remembered fondly. If she loses, not so much but better than being the next, not quite so bad, Walter Mondale.

[Brian Swartz]

Originally Posted by Rainmaker

I don't know why this would push you over the edge. If you're complaining about the primary process not being democratic, that's a legit complaint. It isn't and probably never will be. Democrats aren't big on democracy either.

But what's happening now isn't "subverting democracy". You vote for delegates and they basically pick the nominee. If Joe Biden asks his delegates to select Kamala, how is that bad? People voted for those delegates.

- I'm not complaining about the process not being democratic so much as the claims that Trump must be defeated to save democracy - and we're going to do so by not being democratic. The primary process has always been primarily and overwhelmingly democratic - things like superdelegates are never where the strong majority comes from. The people ultimately choose. As I've said before, I'm more a fan of limited democracy and even that is slowly dying; authoritarianism is in our future IMO not because I want it to be, but because we're on an inevitable path to it IMO. But I left the Republican party because they were no longer pretending to defend our institutions. Well, guess what? Shoe's on the other foot now. It already was largely there, but there were still elements of hope in my mind that Democrats were interested in preserving the Republic. Just win at any cost is not acceptable to me. Abandoning the clearly expressed will of the people is not acceptable to me. I'll probably still vote Harris ... but if I do it will only be anti-Trump, and it will probably be the last time.

To your point earlier about the cancelled primaries (from what I know the number of those was different but that's beside the point) and such; sure, the party can do things like that and send other messages that they don't want competition. But the point is, they can't get away with that unless the party voters tolerate it. There were no significant protests when that happened, campaigns to 'draft' a serious alternative to Biden, or anything of the kind. They just said 'eh, whatever'. The people still had the power to make it happen, they just chose to allow the party to exercise it on their behalf.

I'm really surprised about your last paragraph here. Primary voters don't just vote for delegates, in the same way that general election voters don't just vote for electors. They voted for Joe Biden as president. It's not as if the delegates/electors reasonably have the option to say 'you know, I think the voters were wrong, we're picking someone else instead'. The expectation, and to date result, is always 'this candidate won the state, those delegates are pledged to that candidate', regardless of how the delegates feel about it.

Originally Posted by Passacaglia

When people talk about democracy, they're talking about the country. The Democratic Party is a political party, not a country. I've never seen a "third party" hold a public or semi-public election like Democrats and Republicans do. But the only reason those two do is tradition, but I don't think a primary is any kind of cornerstone of democracy, I mean, as long as we have multiple parties.

I don't see the difference between party and country here. It's as fundamental as anything could be to be able to choose the candidate. Otherwhise we might as well have the vote be based on party only and then have the winning party just pick the candidate after the election. The people deciding who they want to represent/be nominated from their party is as basic as it gets. It simply makes no sense to defend the idea of general-election democracy, but not primary-process democracy. Undermining one is undermining the other.

The number of people comfortable calling for Biden to 'do the right thing' in nullifying in historic fashion the process that selected him in the first place - twice - is just mystifying. Many of them could probably care less, and quite possibly they shouldn't, but those people have lost quite a bit of respect from me in terms of how much I value their opinions.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by Brian Swartz

It simply makes no sense to defend the idea of general-election democracy, but not primary-process democracy.

I'm trying to pick something as narrow as possible to springboard/spitball an idea, this seems like as good an opportunity as any.

I'm wondering if what we're seeing here -- the replacement of a struggling candidate essentially -- isn't going to become the norm rather quickly.

I mean, it puts the opposition at a real disadvantage, having to pivot a great deal of their strategy, their (already created & planned) advertising, on and on and so forth.

It's kind of like ... well, hockey line matching and who gets their line last is the example that came to mind.

Since obviously this is being meekly accepted, I wouldn't be at all surprised to see it become commonplace.

[albionmoonlight]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

I'm trying to pick something as narrow as possible to springboard/spitball an idea, this seems like as good an opportunity as any.

I'm wondering if what we're seeing here -- the replacement of a struggling candidate essentially -- isn't going to become the norm rather quickly.

I mean, it puts the opposition at a real disadvantage, having to pivot a great deal of their strategy, their (already created & planned) advertising, on and on and so forth.

It's kind of like ... well, hockey line matching and who gets their line last is the example that came to mind.

Since obviously this is being meekly accepted, I wouldn't be at all surprised to see it become commonplace.

I don't think so.

As a party-wide game theory thing, it makes sense for the reasons you lay out. But to effectuate it, you need individuals to make choices that I don't see them making.

You need the candidate who won a majority of pledged delegates to withdraw before the convention and hand-pick a successor.

I just don't see someone who has gone through an entire primary and won thinking to themselves "Well, I'm down 2 points in Ohio. Better step aside for the good of the country."

I think that Biden's situation is seeming increasingly likely to be medical. That just won't happen a lot.

[albionmoonlight]

dola

Here's the conspiracy theory I came up with that I'm noodling over:

Someone (or someones) in Biden's inner circle knew that he was in much worse shape than people (perhaps even he) realized. And that there were some other folks in the inner circle who thought that they could Weekend at Bernie's this thing through the election. Which was never going to work.

So the folks who knew that this was going to be a disaster were the ones who scheduled a June debate (remember when that was announced how weird it was? And people just thought that it was Biden's plan to shake up the race?). And then remember how after the debate, Biden said that his staff kept him up studying and he didn't get enough sleep?

My tin-foil hat theory is that some inner-circle people set him up to fail in an early debate so that he'd have to drop out before the convention.

[JonInMiddleGA]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

I
I just don't see someone who has gone through an entire primary and won thinking to themselves "Well, I'm down 2 points in Ohio. Better step aside for the good of the country."

I believe there is NO party that wouldn't go to whatever means necessary if they wanted to swap candidates. Whether that's arm twisting, more significant coercion, or a tragic brake failure.

[albionmoonlight]

double dola:

I understand not wanting Harris. She's actually pretty far down my list of preferred candidates. But I literally don't understand the criticism that what is happening is undemocratic.

Voters elected delegates, most of whom were pledged to Biden.
Biden withdraws before the convention and frees up his delegates.
Most of them have indicated that they will vote for Harris.
The DNC is allowing anyone to compete for delegates

What am I missing?

[albionmoonlight]

Originally Posted by JonInMiddleGA

I believe there is NO party that wouldn't go to whatever means necessary if they wanted to swap candidates. Whether that's arm twisting, more significant coercion, or a tragic brake failure.

That seems like the plot of a very fun beach read :-)

[Lathum]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

double dola:

I understand not wanting Harris. She's actually pretty far down my list of preferred candidates. But I literally don't understand the criticism that what is happening is undemocratic.

Voters elected delegates, most of whom were pledged to Biden.
Biden withdraws before the convention and frees up his delegates.
Most of them have indicated that they will vote for Harris.
The DNC is allowing anyone to compete for delegates

What am I missing?

The narrative they are trying to paint is Joe was forced out against his will. The reality is the gop is scared shitless by this and until they craft a new strategy all they can do is attack the process.

[Ksyrup]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

dola

Here's the conspiracy theory I came up with that I'm noodling over:

Someone (or someones) in Biden's inner circle knew that he was in much worse shape than people (perhaps even he) realized. And that there were some other folks in the inner circle who thought that they could Weekend at Bernie's this thing through the election. Which was never going to work.

So the folks who knew that this was going to be a disaster were the ones who scheduled a June debate (remember when that was announced how weird it was? And people just thought that it was Biden's plan to shake up the race?). And then remember how after the debate, Biden said that his staff kept him up studying and he didn't get enough sleep?

My tin-foil hat theory is that some inner-circle people set him up to fail in an early debate so that he'd have to drop out before the convention.

Reasonable. Someone here posted the first debate dates for the past like 30 years and I swear none were before late August as I recall.

Tactically, the only thing that makes sense is they knew he was behind and needed time to catch up, so they hoped an early debate would give him some momentum. But if they saw him day-to-day, it's hard to believe they thought that would work.

[Ghost Econ]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

double dola:



What am I missing?

Space lasers.

[Brian Swartz]

Originally Posted by albionmoonlight

I literally don't understand the criticism that what is happening is undemocratic.

Voters elected delegates, most of whom were pledged to Biden.
Biden withdraws before the convention and frees up his delegates.
Most of them have indicated that they will vote for Harris.
The DNC is allowing anyone to compete for delegates

What am I missing?

I covered this in my post. At this point I will ask an honest question: what does the word 'democratic' mean? Because it clearly doesn't mean the same thing to me that it does to you.

[albionmoonlight]

I think the difference comes in how one views Biden's exit.

I see him as having been convinced to not challenge for the nomination.

You, I suspect, see him as having been forced out.

[Brian Swartz]

To my mind, why he left is not relevant.

The delegates choosing a candidate that nobody voted for as their presidential candidate is what is undemocratic.