WW LXVII -- The Return of Divination Nation! (GAME OVER STUDENTS WIN!!!)

[The Jackal]

Originally Posted by Pumpy Tudors

If you're going to come back before deadline, please think about why this is making you uneasy. For some reason, a couple of other people seem really quick to follow your lead and vote for me, but they don't have anything of their own to go on. The wolves are setting me up here. I don't know if Jackal is a wolf, but I know I'm not, and it appears that part of you knows it, too.

The way it stands right now, this group is making the wrong call, and we're on the verge of losing a student here for no good reason.

Please just think about it.

If you are a student, I'm sorry. I know I'm not a wolf, and you seemed to be the best option of the other non-COTers. Either way, good first game for you. I still have no idea if you are lying or not.

[path12]

Final vote count:

Pumpy Tudors - 5 - Barkeep49 (1887), jeheinz72 (1890), SnDvls (1896), The Jackal (1902), ntndeacon (1926)

The Jackal - 4 - mauboy1 (1859), MikeVic (1937), Pumpy Tudors (1946), Mr. Wednesday (1948)

You almost hadn't realized how few your numbers shrunk to. There is a sense that this day could be a crucial one. The deliberations swing back and forth, but despite a late swing towards The Jackal, Pumpy Tudors is chosen for the lynch.

He steps forward, a look of sadness and resignation on his face. "I don't know what else to tell you guys. Good luck." He is hoisted from the ground and quickly expires. You hold your breath waiting for the change that signals you have killed a wolf, but it does not come.

PUMPY TUDORS, A STUDENT, HAS BEEN LYNCHED. NIGHT 6 IS UNDERWAY, ORDERS ARE DUE BY 1AM EST TONIGHT.

[Mr. Wednesday]

Based on that vote, absent a conversion, I'm inclined to most distrust SnDvls and The Jackal.

[Mr. Wednesday]

Dola, on second thought, I take that back. There's no particular reason to prefer any of the CoT over the others.

[Mr. Wednesday]

I don't think anybody organized the scanning, so here's how it's going to go: There are six people to whom I assign some value of actually performing a scan, leaving out Heinz (who will presumably either come up with someone else's accuracy or expire) and MikeVic (who's at 48% and basically wholly unreliable).

The random.org card shuffler gives me:
Group 1 - Barkeep49, SnDvls, The Jackal
Group 2 - ntndeacon, mauboy1, Mr. Wednesday

[Mr. Wednesday]

Assuming you trust me to do the target assignment, here's what I'm going to do. I'm going to draw two out of The Jackal, SnDvls, and MikeVic. The first is going to be MikeVic scanned by Group 1, because both of the other guys landed in that group. The second is going to be drawn at random by random.org.

Results:
Group 1 scans: MikeVic
Group 2 scans: The Jackal

I will not send my order in later so that if there are any objections/proposed alternatives, I can go along with that.

[The Jackal]

Well.. crap. Sorry Pumpy.

I guess that scan system works for me, though I suspect SnD a bit more than Mike and I'm not sure we shouldn't be scanning him.

[MikeVic]

Sorry Pumpy.

[Mr. Wednesday]

Originally Posted by The Jackal

Well.. crap. Sorry Pumpy.

I guess that scan system works for me, though I suspect SnD a bit more than Mike and I'm not sure we shouldn't be scanning him.

Unless somebody's been converted or we overlooked Barkeep, the wolves (and I think there are two) remaining are in the three of you, MikeVic, and SnDvls. So I'd suggest that you personally should start suspecting both of them pretty strongly, unless you want to raise Barkeep as a candidate.

[Mr. Wednesday]

Originally Posted by Mr. Wednesday

I will not send my order in later so that if there are any objections/proposed alternatives, I can go along with that.

That should be, I will not send my order in until later...

[MikeVic]

I don't know what in my play has made me seem like a wolf, other than not being in the COT yet because of scans.

A vote for me would be a wasted vote. I'm not scanning anyone, correct?

[Mr. Wednesday]

Nothing in your play has made you seem like a wolf, but your probability of being one is still pretty high because there are very few people whose status (at some point in the game) is not well-known. And since The Jackal is another member of the group with you, if he is not a wolf, then he should be extremely suspicious of you because his group of unknown people is even smaller than mine.

It's up to you whether you want to scan anybody, but I didn't assign you because we know your accuracy from Heinz and it's so close to 50% as to be worthless.

[Mr. Wednesday]

Dola, nothing in your play has necessarily made you seem like a wolf. I haven't gone back to confirm that.

[mauchow]

This is craptastic. I wish I would have been a little bit more forceful with my thoughts on Jackal. I could have maybe done more investigative work on why Jackal should've been lynched. F'in A man. F'in A.

Well, guys. We're in a tough spot now. I read the result before I left work tonight and on my way home I started to think about Heinz some more. I'll be ridiculed for this, I know, but I don't care.

WHAT IF! What if Heinz killed Cronin early on to gain some rapport with students. What if Heinz was smart enough to realize that people would figure out that RendeR was a wolf and should be taken out that day? What if he realized this and decided to gain yet even more trust from us by initiating the RendeR kill?

I know everyone will ignore this but maybe when the game is over and the students have lost, I'll look back at this post and congratulate Heinz on a well played game.

Anyways, I'll end this part of my thoughts here and start a new post...

[mauchow]

To add a little more: Heinz could be throwing out random %'s to make it seem some of us are more or less reliable than we really are... okay moving on.

[MikeVic]

I know, it's possible mau. I've thought of that a bit too. But he's given us so much info... and has helped kill two wolves. Why would a wolf get a gun in a scan?

[The Jackal]

Originally Posted by Mr. Wednesday

Nothing in your play has made you seem like a wolf, but your probability of being one is still pretty high because there are very few people whose status (at some point in the game) is not well-known. And since The Jackal is another member of the group with you, if he is not a wolf, then he should be extremely suspicious of you because his group of unknown people is even smaller than mine.

It's up to you whether you want to scan anybody, but I didn't assign you because we know your accuracy from Heinz and it's so close to 50% as to be worthless.

I am absolutely suspicious of MikeVic, I even said yesterday or the day before that his play has been very under the radar and wolfish, but I just have been suspecting SnD more. Seems likely they are both wolves, I suppose. I could vote for either of them, that's for sure, especially since I'm in this "wolf" group because only two people have scanned me the whole game.. I kept encouraging people to.

[The Jackal]

Originally Posted by MikeVic

I know, it's possible mau. I've thought of that a bit too. But he's given us so much info... and has helped kill two wolves. Why would a wolf get a gun in a scan?

No idea, but the fewer and fewer of us we are, the more suspicious we have to be of heinz. I still am convinced he's on our side.. I say our, but I should probably say my, because it's looking more and more like you have to be one of the wolves left.

[mauchow]

On a more realistic note after my Heinz Paranoia:

Jackal seems to be the next one that needs to go. We've got less than reliable results on the remaining players. My % has yet to be revealed and is at least 2/2 pending a scan on MikeVic and Jackal. I'm going to scan Jackal again tonight and see what comes up. If it comes up student I don't know if I'll discount it quite yet though.

Shit. All I gotta say about that.

[The Jackal]

Originally Posted by mauboy1

This is craptastic. I wish I would have been a little bit more forceful with my thoughts on Jackal. I could have maybe done more investigative work on why Jackal should've been lynched. F'in A man. F'in A.

Well, guys. We're in a tough spot now. I read the result before I left work tonight and on my way home I started to think about Heinz some more. I'll be ridiculed for this, I know, but I don't care.

WHAT IF! What if Heinz killed Cronin early on to gain some rapport with students. What if Heinz was smart enough to realize that people would figure out that RendeR was a wolf and should be taken out that day? What if he realized this and decided to gain yet even more trust from us by initiating the RendeR kill?

I know everyone will ignore this but maybe when the game is over and the students have lost, I'll look back at this post and congratulate Heinz on a well played game.

Anyways, I'll end this part of my thoughts here and start a new post...

Well, pushing a vote on me wouldn't have accomplished a different result, so that's a moot point.

Wouldn't it be incredible if Heinz has duped all of us? When he killed cronin, we entertained the idea that he was killing one of his own. It's very possible, the gun probably went to a random person, as determined by path, and why couldn't that have been a wolf? It seems like killing one wolf and nailing the brutal wolf would be against wolf strategy, but if he ends up as the last wolf and there's only three or four people left, there's no heat on him!

Still, with all of that said, I really don't think Heinz is a wolf. I imagine one of you COT guys will go down tonight, but at least we'll still have 2-4 (I include heinz and BK as not positives) that we can believe in.

[The Jackal]

Originally Posted by mauboy1

On a more realistic note after my Heinz Paranoia:

Jackal seems to be the next one that needs to go. We've got less than reliable results on the remaining players. My % has yet to be revealed and is at least 2/2 pending a scan on MikeVic and Jackal. I'm going to scan Jackal again tonight and see what comes up. If it comes up student I don't know if I'll discount it quite yet though.

Shit. All I gotta say about that.

I mean, I'm clearly a suspect, being that I'm not in the COT. We'll see what the scans turn up on me tonight - I hope really inaccurate people don't just return me as wolf, but you seem to have a good %, so I'm glad you are on me again.

[Mr. Wednesday]

At this point, I'm discounting the possibility of Heinz duping us, and figuring that if he did, I'm just going to pay him off.

At this point, I seem to be running around 50% accuracy, so I'm guessing there isn't much to draw from my scan results.

[mauchow]

Well, obviously I hope my scan hits you as a wolf and you're really a wolf.

[The Jackal]

Originally Posted by mauboy1

Well, obviously I hope my scan hits you as a wolf and you're really a wolf.

Aw, I knew you cared.

[path12]

Your eyes burn from the strain, blurring your gaze. Your arms and legs seem to be both as heavy as lead yet jittery as if to jump at the first sound. You need sleep, but sleep is what you most dread these days.

Once again there is reason to. The body of jeheinz was found in the kitchen storage bin, sprawled on top of the potatoes.

"Those bastards", you think. "Never letting that stale-ass joke go." You have found your motivation for the day ahead.

JEHEINZ72, MATH WHIZ, HAS BEEN KILLED. DAY 7 IS UNDERWAY, DEADLINE IS TUESDAY AT 9PM EST.

[mauchow]

shoot

[mauchow]

Okay, so Heinz was telling the truth and thankfully the strikes out any silliness with us worrying about Heinz.

[mauchow]

I'll say right now that my scan tonight was INCORRECT therefore my chances of Jackal being a wolf increased a little bit.

I scanned Heinz as I did a VERY last second change in scans. He came up as a wolf. Damn it. I shouldn't have let my craziness switch up my scan. Sorry, guys.

[Mr. Wednesday]

I got The Jackal as wolf this time. Night 4 I also scanned him, and got him as a student then. My basic conclusion is that I'm useless scanning.

[Barkeep49]

I scanned MikeVic, he came up as a wolf for me.

[jeheinz72]

Aw pickles.

Go Students! Bring home the win!

[MikeVic]

Thanks for contributing so much heinz. We'd be done without you.

I scanned The Jackal and he came up student.

[The Jackal]

My scan of Mike returned him wolf as well - and at this point that's enough for me. I hope that Mr. W's inconsistent result on me, combined with Mau's decision not to scan me again (Why, damn you!) is enough to show you I'm not the right move today. I have a feeling the last two wolves are Mike and SnD, and since we left SnD alone last night, I'm turning to Mike.

Vote MikeVic

[mauchow]

vote mikevic

[MikeVic]

Whoo I got a vote!

[MikeVic]

Originally Posted by The Jackal

My scan of Mike returned him wolf as well - and at this point that's enough for me. I hope that Mr. W's inconsistent result on me, combined with Mau's decision not to scan me again (Why, damn you!) is enough to show you I'm not the right move today. I have a feeling the last two wolves are Mike and SnD, and since we left SnD alone last night, I'm turning to Mike.

Vote MikeVic

Heinz or someone posted that:
"MikeVic has been scanned twice so far, both good, from the Jackal and Mau."

Now you scan me as wolf and it's "good enough?" That's not very solid. I'm thinking you could be a wolf, as I did yesterday.

[MikeVic]

Well, I wasn't sure yesterday about Jackal, but I suspected him more than Pumpy at least.

[MikeVic]

Anyone have BK's scan history handy?

[MikeVic]

And voting histories? I'll try to compile something a bit later if no one has it.

[mauchow]

unvote mikevic

I just wanted to get Jackals hopes up...

vote the jackal

[Barkeep49]

I scanned MikeVic. He came up as a wolf for me.

[Barkeep49]

Originally Posted by MikeVic

Anyone have BK's scan history handy?

No, but I'm definitely in the 50% range.

[MikeVic]

This is what I have right now.


Barkeep49:
Claims to have cloak ability where he always comes up as student.

TheJackal:
TheJackal has been scanned three times so far. Heinz (unknown) and Mr. W (inaccurate) have scanned him as good, Mau scanned him as bad. Mr. W has also scanned him as bad.


MikeVic:
MikeVic has been scanned twice so far, both good, from the Jackal and Mau. BK and Jackal scanned him as bad.


SnDvls:
SnDvls has been scanned twice so far, a good scan from The Jackal and a bad one from PumpyTudors

Day 1 votes:
No Lynch 9 -- Greyroofoo(287), The Jackal(289), Lathum(321), Nfg22(351), SnDvls(356), MikeVic(403), Chief Rum(407), oliegirl(430), saldana(437)

Nfg22 3 -- Barkeep49(239), ntndeacon(334), Passacaglia(383)

jeheinz72 2 -- Dodgerchick(202), Pumpy Tudors(207)

The Jackal 1 -- claphamsa(91)

RendeR 1 -- st.cronin(210)

Lathum 1 -- RendeR(339)

ntndeacon 1 -- Bsak16(409)

claphamsa 1 -- Mr. Wednesday(440)

Not voted: mauboy1, jeheinz72


Day 2 votes:
Lathum - 8 - nfg22 (787), Barkeep49 (791), DodgerChick (800), Passacaglia (880), st.cronin (882), RendeR (887), mauboy1 (926), Mr. Wednesday (985)

nfg22 - 7 - Pumpy Tudors(598), Bsak16(628), MikeVic (757), claphamsa (770), Lathum (830), oliegirl (865), saldana (866)

No Lynch - 2 - The Jackal (736), SnDvls (762)

Passacaglia - 1 - ntndeacon(738)

Dodgerchick - 1 - jeheinz72 (764)

Barkeep49 - 1 - Chief Rum (986)


Day 3 votes:
nfg22 - 14 - Chief Rum (1097), saldana (1101), oliegirl (1156), jeheinz72 (1168), MikeVic (1173), Pumpy Tudors (1175), Barkeep49 (1184), bsak16 (1226), mauboy1 (1228), Mr. Wednesday (1255), SnDvls (1261), RendeR (1264), ntndeacon (1291), Dodgerchick (1294)

Chief Rum - 2 - st.cronin (1263), nfg22 (1267)

Dodgerchick - 1 - The Jackal (1113)

st.cronin - 1 - claphamsa (1130)


Day 4 votes:
Dodgerchick - 8 - The Jackal, jeheinz, RendeR, Chief, bsak, clapham, ntndeacon, MikeVic

Chief Rum - 5 - mauboy1, Barkeep, Mr W, oliegirl, Dodgerchick

mauboy1 - 2 - SnDvls, Pumpy Tudors


Day 5 votes:
RendeR -- just about everybody

Someone else -- RendeR


Day 6 votes:
Pumpy Tudors - 5 - Barkeep49 (1887), jeheinz72 (1890), SnDvls (1896), The Jackal (1902), ntndeacon (1926)

The Jackal - 4 - mauboy1 (1859), MikeVic (1937), Pumpy Tudors (1946), Mr. Wednesday (1948)

[MikeVic]

Uhh I just took other people's work and merged them with a bit more work on my own. So it might read kinda funny.

[ntndeacon]

I had the Jackal as a wolf. I think I am hopeless as a scanner as well.

[mauchow]

Three scans on Jackal reading wolf... not bad numbers.

[Mr. Wednesday]

It's not total wolf scans that count (particularly where I'm non-committal about him over my two scans), but scans from people who are more accurate on average.

[MikeVic]

Plenty of discussion lol.

[Mr. Wednesday]

That's what happens when the numbers get way down.

[SnDvls]

hey all sorry it's been a busy day at the office again

trying to catch up now